CLIMAR · 2009. 4. 17. · CLIMAR Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models: José Ozer,

Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM

http://www.mumm.ac.be/

SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,

and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009

CLIMAREvaluation of climate change impacts andadaptation responses for marine activities





CLIMAREvaluation of climate change impacts andadaptation responses for marine activities

Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models: José Ozer, Stéphanie Ponsar, Dries Van den Eynde

Arcadis Belgium: Renaat De Sutter, Annemie Volckaert, Lieven De Smet

Flanders Hydraulics Research: Toon Verwaest, Katrien Van der Biest

ILVO – Fisheries: Hans Polet, Els Vanderperren

Maritime Institute, University Gent: Frank Maes, MarianWillekens

Project funded by Belgian Science Policy





Marbaix et al., 2004





Stern, 2006





WP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale

Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling

WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts

Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and

classifications

Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment

Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling

WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities.

extrapolation of adaptationscenario’s/measures

WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Integrated sustainability assessment

of adaptation scenario's/measures

Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)

Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.





Primary impacts

Literature study

Analysis of measurements– Sea Level Rise

– Waves

– Wind speed and direction

– Sea water temperature

Set up of climate change scenarios for Belgium

Use of numerical models to look at change in hydrodynamicaland sedimentological parameters





Analysis of sea level rise

Data sets– 1937-2003: monthly and yearly mean values of the Permanent Service

for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)– 1980-2006: hourly values of the Flemish Governement, Maritieme

Dienstverlening en Kust (MDK)– 1925-1979: high and low waters of MDK

Yearly mean values for 1927 – 2006





Yearly mean values for 1927 - 2006





Results





Results

Constant trend: 1.69 mm/year– Higher then Van Cauwenberghe for the period 1925 – 1998, i.e.

1.44 mm/yearTrend varying by step– 1.41 mm/year before 1992– 4.41 mm/year after 1992

Constant acceleration of the trend (2nd order polynomial)– 0.72 mm/year in 1927– 2.63 mm/year in 2006

Linear acceleration of the trend (3th order polynomial)– 3.31 mm/year in 1927– 0.93 mm/year in 1962 – 5.15 mm/year in 2006





Predictions





Conclusion

Rise of sea level at Oostende over the last 80 years is around (at least) 1.69 mm/yearThe rise of the sea level seems to increase, but more data are necessary to confirm thisGlobal observations – literature– In 20th century, the global sea level rise is estimated at 1.7±0.5

mm/year– Using satellite measurements (altimeter), the sea level rise is

estimated at 3.1±0.7 mm/year over the period 1993-2003





Analysis of waves

Data sets– Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust

Bol van Heist – 1978-2007

– Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland3 stations – Scheur West – 1980 (1985) – 2007

Time series– Monthly means

Long term trend + seasonal cyclus (+ residue)Lineair regression

– Maximal wave heights– Percentage of high wave heights





Analysis of waves

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Analysis of high waves

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Analysis of waves

Lineair regression – different resultsBol van Heist: -0.0013 m/yearBrouwershavensche Gat 2: -0.0027 m/yearDeurlo: +0.0004 m/yearScheur West: +0.0024 m/year

Lineair regression of high waves– Percentage high waves decreases– Maximal wave height dependent on the station





Analysis of wind speed

Data sets – Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust

Westhinder – 1994-2007

– Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland2 stations – 1980 (1988) – 2007

– Meteorological predictions of the Norwegian Meteorological InstituteWesthinder – 1955 - 2006

Time series – Monthly means

Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)Lineair regression

– Maximal wind speed– Percentage of high wind speeds





Analysis of the wind speed

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Analysis of wind direction

-200

-100

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2005-





Analysis of wind speed and direction

Lineair regression – different resultsWesthinder – NMI: -0.003 m/s/yearVlakte van de Raan: wind speed increases General: on the Belgian Continental Shelf: wind speed seems to decreaseReport KMI – not yet available

Lineair regression of high wind speedsMost results seems to indicate an increase in the high wind speeds

Wind directionIncrease of winds from the West to West-south-west





Analysis of sea water temperature

Data sets– British Oceanographic Data Centre– World Ocean Data Base 2005

Time series– Different boxes– Monthly means

Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)Lineair regression





Analysis of sea water temperature

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

’long.44’ using 1:2’statout.44’ using 1:3

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8.5

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

’long.22’ using 1:2’statout.22’ using 1:3

– Increase temperature : 0.018 °C/year to 0.051 °C/year

– cfr. literature: +2-4°C in 2100





Scenarios 2100

+200 cm+93 cm+93 cm+60 cm+60 cm Sea Level

+3,5 °C+3,5 °C+3,5 °C+2,5 °C+2,5 °CSea water temperature

+8 %+8 %-2 %+4 %+0 %Wind speed

-40 %-40 %+12 %-20 %+6 %Summer precipitation

+28 %+28 %+16 %+14 %+8 %Winter precipitation

YesYesNoYesNoChange of circulation

+4 °C+4 °C+4 °C+2 °C+2 °CAir temperature

WorstW+WM+M





Changes in the hydrodynamic climate

Using the different scenarios for 2100– Sea level rise– Higher wind speeds

Use of different numerical models– Hydrodynamic models: changes in currents, bottom stress, …– Wave models: changes in significant wave height, erosion of the

beaches,…– Sediment transport models: changes in erosion and

sedimentation patterns, …Link with the Quest4D project





Impact on hydrodynamic climate





Impact on wave climate





Tourism – TCI indicator for attractivenessof the coast

The TCI index is weighted and computed as follows (Amelung et al., 2007): TCI = 2 * (4CID + CIA + 2R + 2S + W)

Subindex Variable(s)Daytime comfort Index (CID) Maximum daily temperature

(°C)Minimum daily relativehumidity (%)

Daily comfort Index (CIA) Mean daily temperature(°C)Mean daily relative humidity(%)

Precipitation (R) Precipitation (mm)Sunshine (S) Daily duration of sunshine

(hours)W ind speed (W ) W ind speed (m/s or km/hr)





TCI- rating Current situation

2020s 2050s 2080s

Spring (March, April, May) Marginal A1F: marginal A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptableB1: marginal B1: acceptable B1: acceptable

Summer (June, July, August) Mostly very good

A1F: very good A1F: excellent A1F: excellent

B1: very good B1: very good B1: excellentAutumn (September, October,November)

Marginal A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptableto good

A1F: good

B1: acceptableB1: marginal B1: acceptable

# of months per year exhibiting“very good” or better (TCI ?70) climatic conditions

2 A1F: 3 A1F: 4-5 A1F: 5-6

B1: 2 - 3 B1: 4 B1: 4-5

Tourism – TCI indicator for attractivenessof the coast

(A1F rapid economic growth – B1 more sustainable growth)





Coastal defense – secondary impacts

Ecological impacts– Change in habitat & biodiversity

Coastal erosionBeach nourismentHard defencesManaged retreat

Economic impacts– Losses - coastal structures, buildings, industry

Social impacts– Security

Victims of floodings

– Attractiveness of the coastHigher natural value by managed retreat





Coastal defense – quantification

Risk calculations– Changes in beach profiles during storm– Chances for breakthrough of the dunes– Flooding– Damages and victims





Coastal defense –





Fisheries sector

Good overview of the fisheries sector– Magnitude of fleet– Fishing grounds– Commercial species– External factors

Fuel pricesNational and international regulations





Fisheries sector

Secondary impacts of climate changes– Ecological impacts

Geographical shift of speciesHabitat changeFood availabilityGrowth - mortality - recruitmentCOMPLEX – not only termperature is importantFor different fish species effects are evaluated

– Economic impactsProductivityRisks for damages

– Social impactsEmploymentSafety





Fisheries sector

Sole– Commercial important– Expected climate change effects

Higher temperature– Higher survival of demersale stadium– Decrease of winter mortality– Earlier spawning– Higher growth rate

Precipitation– Possible change of the quality of the nursing grounds





Fisheries sector

Adaptation strategies– Other commercial species– Other fishing techniques





Conclusions

CLIMAR– Work in progress– Results available on website:

http://www.arcadisbelgium.be/climar

Documents

CLIMAR · 2009. 4. 17. · CLIMAR Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models: José Ozer,