2009. 04. 24 (011170)

Buy [상향]

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호남석유화학

KOSPI

자료: WiseFn, HMC투자증권

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2009F

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2분기 이후 실적급락 가능성을 감안해도 저평가 판단

Company Brief

HMC INVESTMENT SECURITIES RESEARCH CENTER

Forward Solution 2

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2009년 1분기 실적 Review

1분기 Earnings Surprise 기록

매출액 1,233.6 67.1 88.5 738.1 654.5 1,050.5 17.4 영업이익 153.5 133.1 65.9 -86.2 95.6 60.6 영업이익률 12.4 +3.5%p +25.6%p 8.9 -13.2 9.1 +3.3%p 세전이익 159.5 21.0 131.8 -365.1 86.6 84.3 순이익 159.5 63.1 97.8 -245.1 58.1 174.4 자료 : 호남석유화학, HMC투자증권

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(% YoY)(십억원) 매출액(좌)

매출액증가율(우)

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(% YoY)(십억원) 영업이익(좌)

영업이익증가율(우)

자료 : 호남석유화학, HMC투자증권 자료 : 호남석유화학, HMC투자증권

2009년 및 2010년 EPS 전망을 각각 59%, 15% 상향조정

3HMC Investment Securities Research Center

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매출액 4,449.8 3,810.6 4,629.8 4,266.6 3,810.6 4,629.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 영업이익 372.0 217.2 309.9 292.6 217.2 309.9 27.1 0.0 0.0 세전이익 454.0 255.3 339.8 355.8 247.9 331.0 27.6 3.0 2.6 순이익 380.4 191.5 254.9 238.8 166.4 222.2 59.3 15.1 14.7 EBITDA 625.3 453.0 516.4 545.9 453.0 516.4 14.5 0.0 0.0 EPS 11,939 6,010 7,999 7,497 5,223 6,976 59.3 15.1 14.7 자료 : HMC투자증권

2분기 이후 이익감소의 가능성은 당사의 이익전망에 이미 반영

매출액 738.1 818.5 887.1 654.5 1,233.6 1,226.2 1,038.6 951.3 영업이익 65.9 63.6 47.1 -86.2 153.5 125.1 69.6 23.8 세전이익 131.8 105.6 56.2 -365.1 159.5 154.1 95.8 44.6 순이익 97.8 73.6 28.4 -245.1 159.5 115.6 71.8 33.4 자료 : 호남석유화학, HMC투자증권

목표주가를 98,500원, 투자의견을 BUY로 상향

사업가치 2,188 1,585 1,807 EBITDA 625 453 516 적정 EV/EBITDA (배) 3.5 3.5 3.5 동종업체대비 30% 할인

투자자산 가치 528 633 633 장부가대비 50% 할인

기업가치 2,716 2,218 2,440 순차입금 -668 -678 -818 지분가치 3,384 2,896 3,258 주식수 (만주) 3,186 3,186 3,186 적정주가 (원) 106,213 90,886 102,273 98,500 (2년 평균) 현주가(4/23) (원) 74,000 74,000 74,000 74,000 상승여력 (%) 43.5 22.8 38.2 33.1 자료 : HMC투자증권

Forward Solution 4

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2,255.3 3,098.2 4,449.8 3,810.6 4,629.8 1,003.8 886.1 2,367.6 2,390.2 2,472.0

1,873.1 2,888.7 3,912.3 3,448.5 4,143.9 464.0 354.8 1,361.9 1,371.7 1,220.5

382.2 209.5 537.6 362.0 485.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

108.8 119.2 165.6 144.8 176.0 304.5 262.3 585.4 593.2 734.4

17.5 17.4 25.3 21.7 26.3 210.7 249.0 380.5 385.6 477.4

52.9 54.3 78.6 67.4 82.1 2,583.5 2,664.9 2,585.6 2,749.8 2,683.3

33.2 43.1 62.2 54.2 66.0 1,881.1 1,841.4 1,055.4 1,265.4 1,265.4

273.4 90.3 372.0 217.2 309.9 696.6 819.0 1,715.9 1,660.8 1,585.5

12.1 2.9 8.4 5.7 6.7 1.9 0.8 -189.4 -180.1 -171.3

345.9 314.0 189.3 152.2 80.8 3,587.4 3,551.0 4,953.2 5,140.0 5,155.3

26.4 28.4 51.4 66.3 62.0 417.4 264.5 579.3 874.6 643.0

10.5 87.9 108.7 75.9 18.8 278.6 172.2 250.3 253.6 314.0

282.0 84.1 14.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 329.0 329.0 329.0

23.3 475.8 107.3 114.1 50.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 292.0 0.0

2.7 7.3 35.6 36.5 25.6 293.3 482.7 555.7 263.7 263.7

12.6 201.4 71.7 77.6 25.3 0.0 292.1 292.1 0.1 0.1

0.0 262.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.0 73.0 73.0

322.6 -161.7 82.0 38.1 29.9 710.7 747.2 1,135.0 1,138.3 906.7

596.0 -71.4 454.0 255.3 339.8 159.3 159.3 159.3 159.3 159.3

132.6 -26.2 73.6 63.8 85.0 473.6 473.6 1,115.6 1,115.6 1,115.6

463.4 -45.3 380.4 191.5 254.9 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,237.2 2,160.1 2,532.5 2,716.0 2,962.9

463.4 -45.3 380.4 191.5 254.9 2,876.6 2,803.8 3,818.2 4,001.7 4,248.6

360.9 163.8 625.3 453.0 516.4 3,587.4 3,551.0 4,953.2 5,140.0 5,155.3

350.7 -46.2 206.1 409.4 295.3 14,544 -1,421 11,939 6,010 7,999

463.4 -45.3 380.4 191.5 254.9 14,512 -1,509 11,126 6,120 7,999

85.0 72.0 263.1 245.1 215.3 90,290 88,004 119,843 125,603 133,352

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1.8 78.3 -39.0 4.7 6.6 17,291 886 19,889 13,410 14,480

-282.0 177.9 -14.0 -10.0 0.0 11,329 5,141 19,626 14,217 16,208

72.3 -274.2 -376.6 -9.5 -172.6 7.2 - 6.2 12.3 9.3

7.7 -56.5 2.0 -3.0 0.0 7.3 - 6.7 12.1 9.3

-372.5 -91.9 -239.0 -397.0 145.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

-277.5 -201.1 -1,160.0 -190.0 -140.0 8.0 14.0 2.7 3.7 3.0

-63.0 -55.5 772.0 -220.0 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

4.1 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 6.8 12.1 9.5 10.5

-36.1 154.4 149.0 13.0 285.0 12.1 2.9 8.4 5.7 6.7

-23.9 182.6 1,036.0 -8.0 -592.0 20.5 -1.5 8.5 5.0 5.5

0.0 0.0 329.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 5.3 14.1 11.9 11.2

0.0 0.0 73.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 -1.6 11.5 4.9 6.2

0.0 214.5 0.0 0.0 -292.0 14.1 -1.3 8.9 3.8 5.0

-23.9 -31.9 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 3.4 37.4 43.6 -14.4 21.5

0.0 0.0 642.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 -67.0 312.0 -41.6 42.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -292.0 21.4 적전 흑전 -49.7 33.1

-45.6 44.6 1,003.2 4.5 -151.7 24.7 26.6 29.7 28.4 21.3

126.6 80.9 125.5 1,128.7 1,133.1 -16.1 -2.2 -17.5 -16.9 -19.3

80.9 125.5 1,128.7 1,133.1 981.5 100.6 12.4 10.4 5.9 12.1

5HMC Investment Securities Research Center

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자료 : 셀트리온, HMC투자증권 자료 : 셀트리온, HMC투자증권

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