2009r Rforecast Overview

8/6/2019 2009r Rforecast Overview

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/2009r-rforecast-overview 1/28

© 2009 Rolls-Royce plcThe information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for anypurpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is givenconcerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc orany of its subsidiary or associated companies.

Rolls-Royce Helicopter Overview

and 10-year Forecast 2009-2018



2Introduction

This is the 10-year turbine rotorcraft marketforecast developed by Rolls-Royce

Covers Civil and Military new production turbine helicopters

Based on:Civil customer new requirement and fleet replacement forecasts

Military new requirement and fleet replacement forecastsGovernment acquisition plans

OEM production plans

Customer input



3Total Rotorcraft Forecast 2009 to 2018 –Summary

Rolls-Royce predicts long term resilience in Rotorcraftmarket

Over the next 10 years, R-R forecasts 15,800 turbinerotorcraft deliveries, worth $131 billion

9,600 civil rotorcraft, worth $27 billion

6,200 military rotorcraft, worth $ 104 billion

Over the next 10 years, R-R forecasts 25,000 total OEM

rotorcraft engine deliveries, worth $12 billion



4Turbine Powered Rotorcraft Forecast2009-2018:

Turbine Powered Rotorcraft Forecast15,800 Aircraft

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A n n u a

l P r o

d u c

t i o n

( u n

i t s

CivilDefense



5Differences in 2009

Very light turbine delivery profile

New market entriesHeli Brasil

Hafei Aviation

Macroeconomic factors

Incorporates recent program modifications and changes



62008 vs. 2009 Rotorcraft Deliveries2008 vs 2009 10-Year Forecast

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

R o

t o r c r a

f t

U n

i t s

09 Forecast08 Forecast





8Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast by Value(10 years)

~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton > 10 Ton

Rotorcraft Engine Sales Value

0

500

1000

15002000

2500

3000

35004000

4500

Singles Light Twins Intermediate Medium Heavy

V a l u e ( m $ )

Civil

Defense



9

Civil Rotorcraft Forecast



Civil Turbine Rotorcraft MarketSingle-engine rotorcraft to continue to lead market in unit volume

Eurocopter retains leading position for the next 1-3 yearsBell (206L, 407) remain in high demand

Robinson Helicopter has the potential to challenge entry level segment leaders in the next 3-5 years with new turbine entry

Underlying international demand for police, law enforcement, corporate, EMS and utilityhelicopters

Established twins being replaced by newer twin engine modelsEurocopter, AgustaWestland, Sikorsky and Bell introducing new products

AW139 current market leader in the intermediate segment

Market Drivers:Enhanced value proposition and performance through application of new technology

Environmental footprintFleet demographics



11Civil Turbine Rotorcraft OverviewTurbine rotorcraft deliveries

New entry level models will expand the singles segment

Emerging markets (Asia, Africa, India) long-term growthconsistent with economic development

Energy, police, homeland security and other segments refreshingfleets with newer aircraft

New technology driving upgrade opportunities



12Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Forecast9,600 Civil rotorcraft deliveries

Singles (64%) and light twins (17%) lead the market by units

Airframe value $27 billion

Intermediates (35%) and singles (26%) lead the market in value

Engine OEM value $4.0 billion

Singles (36%) and intermediates (28%) lead the market in value

Aftermarket thru-life value approximately 3-4 times OEM value

Excludes military surplus rotorcraft deliveries and aircraftupgrades

Includes paramilitary market



13Civil Rotorcraft Sales by SegmentationCivil Sales Segmentation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

R o

t o r c r a f t

S a

l e s

( u n

i t s )

HeavyMediumIntermediateLight TwinsSingles

ACTUALS



14

Defense Rotorcraft Forecast





16Military Turbine Rotorcraft Overview

Representative new and ongoing programs drivingproduction

NH90TigerV-22 OspreyCH-53KUH-72A LakotaUS101

And more announcements are imminentIndiaUSAF CSAR-XOthers

Future LynxT-129 (Turkey Attack)KAHP (Korea Attack)UH-60M BlackhawkMQ-8B FirescoutCH-47 Chinook



17Military New Build Turbine RotorcraftForecast

6,200 Military rotorcraft deliveriesMediums (47%) and heavy (16%) lead the market by units

Airframe value $104 billionMediums (49%) and Heavy (38%) lead the market in value

Engine value $8 billion

Mediums (46%) and Heavy (35%) lead the market in value



18Military OEM Rotorcraft Sales - SegmentationDefense Sales Segmentation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

R o t o r c r a f t S a l e s ( u n i t s )

Heavy

Medium

Intermediate

Light TwinsSingles



19Conclusion

Nearly 16,000 new rotorcraft over 10 year period

$12 billion turbine engine market

Underlying long-term demand still in place

Global markets show continued demand despite near-termsoftness

Fleet demographics driving replacements

Technology driving new applications



20

Appendix



21Fleet Age – Civil

Age Profile of Civil Fleet

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Size of the Fleet Oldest to Newest

A g e

i n Y e a r s



22Fleet Age - MilitaryAge Profile of Military Fleet

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Size of fleet oldest to newest

A g e i n Y e a r s



23Class Breakdown - HeavyTurbine Heavy Helicopter Market Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A n n u a

l P r o

d u c

t i o n

( u n

i t s )



24Class Breakdown - MediumTurbine Mediums Helicopter Market Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A n n u a

l P r o

d u c

t i o n

( u n

i t s )



25

Class Breakdown - IntermediatesTurbine Intermediates Helicopter Market Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A n n u a

l P r o

d u c

t i o n

( u n

i t s )



26

Class Breakdown - Light TwinsTurbine Light Twins Helicopter Market Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

A n n u a

l P r o

d u c

t i o n

( u n

i t s )





28

Rolls-Royce Contacts

Matt HaugkDirector; Marketing & Strategy(317) 230-3883Email: [email protected]

Tristan Scheffer

Customer Business Graduate(317) 230-5527Email: [email protected]

Documents

2009r Rforecast Overview