2010 Crisis English

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Friday November 20, 2009

Santiago Nio Becerra: The Crisis of 2010

Santiago Nio Becerra is Professor of Economic Structurein the IQS Faculty of Economics. Ramon Llull Universityand is also apparently astrologer ........

(This text was published in dayswww.lacartadelabolsa.com between July 31 and August10, 2007. The present is a revised and enlarged edition).

The month of September 2007 will mean the beginning ofthe end of the economic system in which we areimmersed for nearly two centuries and which willmanifest itself in a big crisis starting in 2010. From here,the system will evolve to its total transformation into

another very different structurally through a processsimilar to that which followed the mercantilist system inthe second half of the eighteenth century. The crisis of2010, will therefore be a consequence of the deathprocess of the present structure, the death that maysound dramatic, but does not fall within the historicaldynamic that has happened in the last two thousandyears, a dynamic that is systems, like any living thing,born, changes, evolves, it withers and dies.

The current structure was born in 1928 and is itself thewelfare state in which the planet has been involved sincethat year. The 1929 crash and the Great Depressionmeant a radical change from the past, a change that wasmanifested through the junction between the 'socialsupport' and 'survival' and which was founded incontinued economic growth, however , this welfare state,

this state of 'going over', to grow, has left out somethingthat is indispensable: stability.
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Therefore, the current structure is in the process of

profound change due to the pursuit of individual success,intrinsic to the development the system has taken, hasnot seen the need to meet the stability pacts that wereimplicitly contained in the draft initiated in 1928, whichhas involved an unreasonable expenditure of resourcesthat in most cases, has resulted in waste.

The reason for such waste has been capitalist philosophy

itself. Capitalism is individualistic, that is, each individualmust look to themselves to advance in their personalevolution, implying that not to worry about othersbecause each of the other shall be determined solely onhimself in Consequently, each individual will act in thebest way I can and know for himself, but that course ofaction carries with it the waste of resources.

Between 1973 and 1984, with the two energy crises, thesystem warns you that the rate of consumption that areundergoing resources can hardly move forward. Theresponse came in the 80s with the beginning of improvedproductivity, economic growth, which disconnects theemployment of productive factors, however, theindividualistic aspect of the process, not reversed,indeed, accelerated : the behavior of the yuppies and theexpansion of the globalization process attests.

In the 80 would have to be dealt a pact, would have hadto devise a collective and participatory strategy tooptimize the utilization of resources, which would haveresulted in reducing their consumption, which was notdone and continue to think in terms individual. Suchagreement has already been completely impossible after

1995 when the process becomes postglobal.


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That is, the system is dying because it is not sustainablein its current form, is thus depleted.

The crisis of 2010 will be very similar characteristics tothat of 1929: end of a way of doing things, though, unlikewhat happened in 1929 when the arrival of the crisis wasa surprise because the company years 20 lived totallyfocused on her mind, the 2010 is being seen coming forsome time, so its impact will not be as violent as that of29; also the remains of the welfare model will mitigate, in

part, its consequences; however, this mitigating effect isvery limited due to the progressive cuts in the modeltakes time forcing the evolution of the system, cuts willbe increased.

There is something that takes time announcing the germof a new philosophical elements. The Third Way, in

whatever form, with its constant reference to the liability,that people should be responsible, people should actresponsibly, each person must act responsibly, is puttingon the table the idea that there is no one that, above theindividual, to ensure correct deviations as they occur, iewhat the philosophy behind the Third Way is announcingis that "every suit has to hold his trades.

From September all going to be very different now.Quickly he will impose the idea that things are not goingso well as now being said that van, but this finding willbe progressive, which will lead to a certain idea of'foresight' which will result in the 'imposition' policiesand concrete measures. However, unlike the 1929 crisisin which the family played an important role in providingsupport to those affected, in this new situation, neitherthis nor any other support of this caliber will be present,

on the contrary, in this crisis , which is, as the concept ofpersonal responsibility, the star of the party, the support


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resources-all, including the consumption of somethingthat today is essential: the bandwidth of thecommunications passing, shows a panorama unbearablefor the existing stock of resources. From September this

fact is displayed in all its harshness and involve thegradual imposition of restrictions on the use andconsumption of resources, either through price increases,either through the limitation or denial of theirconsumption, which will lead to death from the activitiesdemonstrate ineffective when they were preventedwaste.

At the same time, everything has gone so far noting thatthe system had not worked but has been masked by theslogan 'the world goes well', is expressed: the problemsin international trade, financial dependency of the USA,tensions leading to an increasingly devalued U.S. dollar,the creaking of a Europe that does not quite fit,insufficient but increasing social expenditures, depletionof the debt capacity of families, different housingbubbles.

All this will cause, from September, will lead to asituation of cuts, intervention and increasing socialprotests sometimes be harshly repressed. The obviousconsequence of this will be the loss of confidence in theinfallibility of the system, contributing to thedeteriorating situation and the disappearance of the falsesense of prosperity and whose implications, increasedconsumption, increased debt, will now invoice.

From September issues begin to emerge internationally.First, oil supplies, especially from January 2008 - isclearly insufficient to meet the demand for oil, thissituation will continue until other energy sources trulyeffective, they are operational, which will not happen

short term. On the other, disguised devaluation of theU.S. dollar which is being completely useless be


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perceptive and perceivers-called 'copago'-as alreadyhappens in several European countries.

The manifestation of this problem so far underground,will mean serious problems in employment, since it willproduce a gradual closure of companies, in fact, only verysmall, the minimum size or the truly gigantic, cansurvive, the former due to its flexibility and adaptability,the latter, with its enormous resources even at the costof making constant cuts. This will adversely affect theincome of people, in fact, only the highly skilledworkforce truly useful tasks will be guaranteed access to

employment.

The result is confusion, among other reasons because wewill lack a long-term plan, on the other hand, it isimpossible to develop policies to serve not so far usedbecause of the systemic transition in which they are theeconomy and society. Consequently, only short-sighted

measures will go designing the absence of a structuredlong-term strategy. In other words, and literally do notknow what to do.

Contrary to what one might think, well enough peoplewill accept the passing of a message that everythingpointed to a wonderful, another studded with problems.Regardless of citizenship in different countries perceivethese problems, it is possible that certain statistics, somedata may become manipulated and distorted in order toinject a certain dose of optimism in the population at atime, the increasing control Freedom of expressionframed in the 'fighting terrorism', provide interventionsand censorship of topics deemed sensitive.

The period January 2008 - October 2009 will be a pivotalperiod in which the sole objective will be the 'lengthening


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of what you have' to 'not lose what is', which will lead toreductions take place generalized in all orders via theapplication manifest into real cuts and massive 'scissors',although depending on the intended use to the resources,

ie, the utility will have what it seeks to do with theresources is required to use. The valuations are carriedout in this period the situation will end with a "stillendure!".

That is, at that time, they accentuate the feeling that theonly important thing is survival, so the trust will declineand beliefs, all beliefs and illusions, wobble. The views,

perceptions, will become much more utilitarian, so thatthe message of the politicians will change, moving to anenvironment of 'less talk and more do. "

The minimalist tendencies are more pronounced anddefinitely would end the idea that a college degree oreven graduate is guaranteed employment, but instead

will be a significant and rapid expansion of the idea thatessentially are those knowledge-no matter how acquired,which are oriented toward what is 'useful', ie that serveto further the practicality of things and to design andproduce goods and services that are practical.

Funds for investment, contrary to what might seem, therewill be plenty, but not to invest in any uncertainadventure. The question that every institution, public orprivate, will arise when an application has beforeinvestment will be "what's going to serve what will beobtained with this investment?".

This eminently practical approach, geared to onlineoperation and the birth of a new philosophy, will make

values upheld in the previous phase, decay or eveneventually disappear. In this line, ethics, as many years is


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From October 2009, due to the feeling of being on theroad to recovery, an end to restrictive policies and

minimalist, while embodied the idea that something newis necessary that A new idea is necessary to exit thesituation where the planet is, so is making serious effortsto enhance international cooperation that both had beenrestricted in previous months.

However, gradually, until May 2010, it will dramaticallyhighlighting the contradictions between the philosophy of

the current system, ours, with the idea of survival properto a real shortage of resources. Largely because of these
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contradictions, it will spread the perception that 'thingsdo not work' as, based on the current philosophy, shouldwork.

The Great Depression is one of the best examples thatexist of a combination of two of the worst things that canoccur in an economy: over-and under-consumption. InJanuary 2010 there will be the first clear signs that acrisis is very close, a crisis that is rooted in a not over-satisfied with a limited supply, but the scarcity ofresources both productive and purchasing capacity. Thisis one aspect that will make such crises of 1929 and 2010

occurring after the outbreak of this.

As of May 2010 will be an accelerated deterioration of thesituation. He will live a day, so that 'every stick yourcandle endurance' is law. The trigger of the crisis, whichmake it concludes that the crisis is inevitable, is likely tobe a fact that affects the acquisition of resources.

Due to the difficulty of entry into the fundamentals of oursystem, we reach the exhaustion of the capacity ofcompetition, the spirit that, from birth to early nineteenthcentury, has guided capitalism. The reason is obvious: ifthe ultimate goal is survival, against whom compete?,This has a devastating effect on the principles that gavemeaning to the concept of 'entrepreneur'.

In parallel, it will manifest a lack of oil as well as most ofthe commodities that are essential for economic activity,which will accelerate the implementation of policiesaimed at the determination of basic needs, so it probablywill be implemented rationing of many goods andservices that, well, can be complemented by increases in

their prices in order to force a reduction in consumptionof goods and services rationed below even the production


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and supply capacity of supply; the objective is clearly theresource savings.

At this point a problem that will manifest it has now beenapproached by some experts: the surplus of labor in lowor very low rating in recent years has done works of lowvalue added and that, fundamentally, is personalized inthe immigrant population, this is likely to add tensionbetween immigrant and native population due to thescarcity of jobs and resources.

The dynamic regulatory and definition then in force, maydecide to convert some guarded neighborhoods intoghettos where people can be isolated and identified asunnecessary and potentially conflicting demands wherethey lived a marginal existence. This policy will be widelysupported because of the social protests that thesituation will take months to generate and, in someareas, may lead to the emergence of urban guerrillas.

In this sense, between August and October 2006, thePentagon developed the Urban Resolve 2015 maneuversaimed at finding answers to which are considered to bethe typical combat scenario on the horizon of 2015, urbanneighborhoods ultrapoblados and miserable. Monthslater, in January 2007, USA tested the ADS (Active DenialSystem), a system that uses heat waves to repel crowdsto 500 m. away and are expected to be operational in2010.

2011 year will be especially hard, in fact will be thetoughest of the whole crisis period, which augurs socialprotests, riots and reintegration process. Because of theshortcomings, those with 'tangibles' palpably useful

elements such as resources, or experience, will have realpower. The specialization and professionalization, are


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consequently highly valued, as is the inventions andcreations geared to saving and optimization, so thatproductivity will increase. It will squeeze up to the limitthe resources used, including labor, so the feeling of

'exploitation' will reappear.

Obviously you reach verbal agreements and agreementsto coordinate policies, where the climate and climatechange. In relation to both measures will be taken, butnot ecological philosophy, but due to the negative impactof climate change on resources and availability.

Between 2012 and 2015 is required, in fact, a model ofeconomic regulation in all countries. The populationassumes the regulations because they pose to reducetheir level of concern and uncertainty, but also becausefor the people, the passage in less than four years, asituation in which economic decision-makers and politicalleaders touted the benefits of the moment from

widespread shortages, has plunged citizenships realshock.

The regulation of the economy is, de facto, theintroduction of a subsistence economy in whichexchanges are reduced to a very primary level, drawingon many occasions, to barter. In this scenario, thesupport of institutions and states will be addressed,specifically and concretely, to those techniques and thoseprocesses for the conversion of resources to enhancetheir usefulness. In this environment, one of the figureswill experience a deeper transformation is addressed tothe States.

During the crisis years the importance of the corporations

will grow rapidly continuing a process already started inthe '80s, this growing role of corporations will occur at


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the expense of declining state role, in fact, the decline ofthe state's role will be one most significant signs that thesystem is still in force today, is dying.

Corporations will gain power in economic and social gainof power to be provided and accepted by the population.This will result from their much more operational interms of management compared to some states whichare powerless to function in an environment thatresembles nothing that they were accustomed tooperating in other words, people accept the power ofcorporations because, in fact, corporations already

enjoyed real power when people are aware of it because,since September 2007, but especially since January 2008,will have been producing a wave of corporate takeoversto be been feeding the corporate power.

A field that during these years of crisis will experience adramatic breakthrough biotechnology in all aspects

relating thereto, including genetics, the aim of thesedevelopments will be to improve specific elements ofvarious subsectors and always from the perspective ofutility.

Around October of 2012 will be the first visible signs thatthe brunt of the crisis has passed. It will manifest greaterease of access to some cheap goods and services thatpeople need and to help them cope with their situation ofneed, in this line is possible legalization of marijuana justas Prohibition was repealed in 1933 during the GreatDepression to the possible free access to multichanneltelevision entertainment-oriented in a population largelyunemployed.

Between 2015 and 2018, though still with manyproblems, it will produce a steady recovery, but not, as


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hitherto has been traditional after periods of crisis, basedon consumption: this means and will not return. Therecovery will be sustained in the pursuit of efficiency inresource use and rising productivity, which will generate

huge surplus labor, and also allow the implementation ofa living allowance to ensure a minimum vital.

The recovery therefore will be supported by a newstructure of productive relations and will have to do withthe development of new energy and new materials.Though a spectacular advance of genetics. The recoverywill result in the assessment of creativity and

empowerment of new ideas. Throughout 2018 it will besettled to the perception of the crisis.

In late 2018 the crisis will definitely closed, and yetnothing will be same as it was before its outbreak in2010.

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By pure logic, most activities that are now generatingGDP, developed in an atmosphere of joy and prosperityadmitted, can not remain the same to ensure survival inan atmosphere of widespread shortages. Today, theeconomic agenda is aimed-at least what is allegedly "intoa permanent 'go further'. When, after September 2007,the first problems become apparent and the idea of'utility' be seeping into the everyday economic and social,what activities will be to ensure that essential utility, andwhat activities are those are supported, and whatactivities will be those that create jobs?.

From September will begin to manifest problems in theservice sector and services, manifested in poorperformances and the appearance of impediments totheir proper performance. This is due to several factors.On one hand, the excessive level of indebtedness of thepopulation will adversely affect the level of privateconsumption, on the other, the closure of a growingnumber of small and medium enterprises because of thecontinued narrowing of margins and the already

mentioned decrease in consumption , for another, tocause increased energy prices and other items used bythem and that will adversely affect their costs.

At the same time, the incremental social demands and tocommence production in September, do not contribute tothe consumption of services, especially those related toleisure, nor contribute to service consumption reductionbenefits that since that month and begin to occur.

In a dynamic resource constraints and spending down,use-related activities and improving the use will havetraveled far. Professions related to rehabilitation of allkinds of elements, with the recovery, repair and reuse ofgoods that have hitherto been discarded, and therecycling of items that are now considered waste andtherefore not utilized, will have the best chance ofsuccess.

Ie, primes the idea of recycling, reuse, the concept ofcheap, outlet, of discount, of useful, both because the


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amounts of resources will be scarce, and because theaverage individual income will suffer a major setback , aspersonal debt capacity.

Obviously, all aspects of logistics will be essential,primarily because an excellent logistics is the basis of theperformance improvement by enabling the properadministration and to help achieve cost assess.

And also, as has been said in recent days, biotechnologyand genetics fields will experience a dramaticdevelopment, although these are reserved for largeconsortia and collaborative networks to definesubstantial investment.

Creating new things will be very difficult, so you have totake advantage of all that exists, this will be the centralidea for this period, an idea that can be summarized inone sentence: 'I need to be as important'.

Those economies will not suffer by a as the effects of thecrisis.

In the USA the development of its economy during theseyears will be very negative. The crisis will mean the endof a period of expansion that began in 1914, expansiveperiod, especially in the last two decades, has beensustained for the rest of the world, what will happen asthe crisis erupted. This development, in a country whereprivate consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP anddebt reached 130% of income, broad consequences thatwill trigger significant social unrest that will becompounded by the fact that a significant theircitizenship is in possession of firearms.

In Germany there will be a very negative since 2008. Thecountry will generate quality ideas, but lack theresources to implement them, just the opposite of whatwill happen to UK. The fact that this country will never betotally finished tied to any organization will give a freehand to do what it considers appropriate at those times.Moreover, and somewhat as happened in other times of

the past, UK held a number of ideas regarding the optimaluse of resources that will influence the definition and


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structuring of the new system and will be of greatimportance for Europe.

In France, very bad situation as soon as 2008, the total

loss of political and economic role in the country, willcause and consequence, something very similar to whatwill happen to Spain. In Spain, the degradation of thesituation and begin to perceive since September 2007,being much more apparent throughout 2008, it will meanthe end of 'Spanish model'. Starting in 2010 generatedexpectations that may cause the GDP to grow but thatgrowth will not benefit the population.

In Asia, Japan, and based on the total internationalization

of its economy will be greatly affected by a situation thatwill be global, but you can cope much better than othercountries due to the great flexibility that is capablesociety. For its part, the Chinese economy will evolve in avery negative because their productive and social modelbased on relationships, in touch, in the double meaningswill not be able to adapt to times when the operationalprecedence, on the other , its significant dependence onforeign exacerbate those problems.

Where harder will manifest the effects of the crisis will bein Latin America and Africa, can actually speak of thetotal collapse of their social models to international aiddisappear. Scattered areas of specialized areas in bothproduction and export of commodities will be exploitedby corporations without practical benefit to thepopulations of both areas.

Overall, the problems affecting the environment, issuesvery studied and discussed today, and that the KyotoProtocol aims to reduce and that for many people andinstitutions has become an ideological issue, will beaddressed solely from a watershed-based operationalcriteria of usefulness.

In the next few years of pre-crisis and crisis, the studieswhich will then attract more attention are those relatedto the economic sphere and that it has application in the

economic sphere, at a time, the economy will take therole of science that will address the best way to manage


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scarce resources, which fully understands the generationborn between 1984 and 1995, a vision far removed fromthat of these last decades focused on sustainedexponential growth in waste and indebtedness.

Finally, a sentence that falls squarely within what wehave been talking about these days, a prescient quote.Its author is Xavier Marshal, as you know, a sculptor byprofession. The comment made in an interview by LltzerMoix and published in the newspaper La Vanguardia on15 December 2005, one of his last works: the bursting ofa 1959 Chevrolet Impala.

This is the quote:

"The era of wastefulness of capitalism has ended or isnearing its end. I understand that in the 50 weredesigned cars like the Impala, which was a display ofbeauty, decoration. But I think that in a world crowdedall that is unsustainable, that product must be adjustedto needs. Because, after all, what is a car?. For it is achair with wheels for four. You need not become a faultor allow one liters consumed more than was required. So

I made this Impala at the time of its outbreak, tosymbolize a 'so far we have come' from the civilization ofabundance. "


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