2011 Business in Vancouver Quarterly Business Outlook Survey · and the Stanley Cup riot. Whenever possible, we have tracked applicable measures over time. For this wave of research,

2011 Business in VancouverQuarterly Business Outlook SurveyReport of Results for Quarter 3

Nobody’s UnpredictableJuly 2011

Introduction

Nobody’s Unpredictable

Background

� Starting in 2009, Business in Vancouver (BIV), together with Ipsos Reid, conducted an annual Business Outlook Study to track attitudes toward the province’s business climate among high level business leaders in British Columbia.

� In the past, this annual study was conducted online among panelists from the BIV-Ipsos Business Advisory Board as well as contacts within BIV’s database.

� Currently, BIV is interested in tracking key measures of the Business Outlook Study on a quarterly basis. This research program also provides BIV with an opportunity to investigate topical issues of interest to BC business leaders.

� As such, the following charts provide the detailed results from the BIV 2011 Quarter 3 Business Outlook Study. Illustrated are the findings for the key measures from the Business Outlook Study as well as this quarter’s ad hoc section regarding the Harmonized Sales Tax

2011 Business in Vancouver Business Outlook Survey – Quarter 3

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Outlook Study as well as this quarter’s ad hoc section regarding the Harmonized Sales Tax and the Stanley Cup riot.

� Whenever possible, we have tracked applicable measures over time.

� For this wave of research, a total of 170 BC business leaders were surveyed between July 4, 2011 and July 10, 2011.

Methodology

� This wave of research was undertaken on the Internet using Ipsos Reid’s Voice of the West InterActive Forum and BIV-Ipsos Business Advisory Board. Both are custom panels designed by Ipsos to answer unique and quick turnaround questions in a cost effective manner. In total, 76 survey participants are from the Voice of the West Interactive Forum and 94 respondents are from the BIV-Ipsos Business Advisory Board. They have been randomly recruited to represent business leaders from small, medium and large businesses and from a vast range of industries. Additionally, 52% of all survey participants are owners or operators, employed as presidents or c-suite executives, senior vice presidents or vice presidents within their companies.

� Adult British Columbian business leaders, 18 years and older, are the respondents for this survey. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online studies of this nature, however, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error as shown in the table below. The margins of error will be larger within


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estimated margin of error as shown in the table below. The margins of error will be larger within sub-groupings of the survey population. Following are the details for each wave of this study.

Field Dates Sample Margin of Error

2011 Q3 July 4-10, 2011 170 +7.5%

2011 Q2 April 11–17, 2011 188 ±7.1%

2011 Q1 December 28–January 9, 2011 285 ±5.8%

2010 January 4–17, 2010 1,044 ±3.0%

2009 January 3–14, 2009 586 ±4.0%

Business Prospects for 2011


48%51%

64%61%

73%

44%44%

57%56%

68%

28%

10%10%6%7%

17%13%14%

6%9%

14%

5%

The slight downward trending noted for sales and employment prospects last quarter continues to hold true.

Sales

Profits

Lower Higher

No Change

26%

30%

26%16%

13%18%

9%

26%23%

16%22%

9%

23% 10%

6%

7%9%

4%3%8%

4%

3%

Much higher Somewhat higherSomewhat lowerMuch lower


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28%29%

33%32%

40%

24%28%

37%34%

45%

12%17%

12%20%

28%7%

6%

3%

3%

4%

6%

4%

5%

4%

3%7%

2011 Q1 (n=285)

2011 Q3 (n=170)

2010 (n=1,044)2009 (n=586)

2011 Q2 (n=188)

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Base: All respondentsA1. Thinking about your own business or companies, what are the prospects in the next 12 months for each of the following areas?

Capital expenditures

Employment

Space requirements

49%

54%

76%

23%23%

20%23%

17%

22%13%

10%15%

8%

12%8%

10%11%

8% 3%3%

3%5%

3%3%6%

3%8%4%

10%5%

3%

11%

35%46%

51%52%

64%

31%39%

45%44%

7%

5%3%3%

4%

3%4%

Prospects for all areas are lower this wave compared to the last for the industry as a whole for the next 12 months – projections are significantly lower in sales and employment.

Sales

Profits

No Change

35%

34%

HigherLower

30%21%19%

24%12%

35%25%

20%29% 5%

4%

5%

4%

8%

Much higher Somewhat higherSomewhat lowerMuch lower


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44%55%

24%34%

38%30%

45%

29%32%

30%30%

41%5%3%3%

3%

5%7%

6%

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Base: All respondentsA2. Thinking about the overall level of activity in your industry, what are the prospects in the next 12 months for each of the following areas?

Employment

Capital expenditures

45%

43%

29%14%

31%21%20%

23%12%

28%20%

21%26%

14%6%

3%3%

5%3%

4%

5%

6%

2011 Q3 (n=170)

2010 (n=1,044)2009 (n=586)

2011 Q2 (n=188)2011 Q1 (n=285)

2%

41%

Much higher

Somewhat higher

Less than half of BC business leaders are optimistic of the province’s economy for the next 12 months – results are less optimistic compared to the last quarter.

Higher43%

2011 Q3 2011 Q2(n=188)

2011 Q1(n=285)

2010(n=1,044)

2009(n=586)

2% 1% 4% 7%

51% 51% 58% 58%


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34%

21%

2%

Same

Somewhat lower

Much lower

Base: All respondents (n=170)A3. What do you think are the prospects for the overall level of activity in the BC economy in the next 12 months?

Lower23%

32% 34% 20% 21%

15% 11% 16% 13%

1% 3% 3% 1%

Harmonized Sales Tax


Majority (70%) of BC business leaders are in favour of keeping the Harmonized Sales Tax in the referendum vote.

Keep the HST70%

Scrap the HST30%


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Base: All respondents (n=170)B1. As you may know, the provincial government and Elections BC are administering a Harmonized Sales Tax referendum from June13 to July 22, 2011. What outcome would you like to see in this referendum?

70% 30%

41%

16%

3%

Just under half (44%) believe that if the public votes to keep the HST, it will have a positive effect on their business/company; only one fifth (22%) believe the impact will be positive if the HST is extinguished.

Very positive impact

Somewhat positive impact

Somewhat negative impact

Keep the HSTScrap the HST

6%

16%

32%

Total positive impact

44%

Total negative Total negative

Total positive impact

22%


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16%

6%

31%

3%

11

Base: All respondents (n=170)B2. If the public votes to scrap the HST (i.e. Yes vote wins), what overall impact, if any, do you think returning to the GST and PST will have on your business?B3. If the public votes to keep the HST (i.e. No vote wins), what overall impact, if any, do you think keeping the HST will have on your business?

impact

Very negative impact

No real impact

Don’t know

32%

19%

24%

3%

Total negative impact

51%

Total negative impact

22%

Stanley Cup Riot


No impact at all

Don’t know3%

Moderate impact4%

Despite the destruction resulting from the Game 7 Stanley Cup riot in Vancouver, majority (79%) of BC business leaders said the riot had no impact at all on their business/company.

A lot of impact0%


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Base: All respondents (n=170)C1. Overall, how much impact, if any, did the recent Game 7 Stanley Cup riot in Vancouver have on your business?

No impact at all79%

Very little impact14%

Total impacted18%

Strongly support32%

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose8%

Don’t know3%

Total support

Total oppose23%

The bulk of BC business leaders support large outdoor gatherings of people on public streets in Vancouver’s downtown core.


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Base: All respondents (n=170)C2. Overall, do you support or oppose the city hosting large outdoor gatherings of people on public streets in Vancouver’s downtown core?

Somewhat support42%

Somewhat oppose15% Total support

74%

Documents

2011 Business in Vancouver Quarterly Business Outlook Survey · and the Stanley Cup riot. Whenever possible, we have tracked applicable measures over time. For this wave of research,