2011 Market Trend Report

2011 Market Trend Report

Southeast Michigan Year End 2010

Home affordability and demand are at high points, as a result of continued low interest rates and the reduction of available home inventories (down 50% from the 2008 peak). The offset has been slow economic growth and more importantly home equity reductions that have put 40% of homeowners underwater. The consensus is Michigan jobs are expected to grow by 20,000 or more in 2011, increasing to nearly 60,000 net new jobs by 2012. Interest rates are also expected to remain low, making 2011 a solid move up year in real estate. Unfortunately for homeowners, appreciation is the last thing to come back in a housing down turn and will not return until 2012 and beyond.

A further help to the market was a reduction in the foreclosure inventories. The expected “dump” of homes from the bank “shadow inventory” did not take place. There are a number of reasons; a) the robo signing controversy caused banks to slow their foreclosure processing

b) banks are aware that a “dump” will effect values c) lenders have an overall understanding that foreclosure is their least viable option. Nonetheless there is a buildup of properties, since foreclosure rates have exceeded bank owned sales for most of the year. As a result, many are predicting a continued drop in values across the country as Lenders release their inventories. For Michigan, the shadow inventory does not pose as big a threat since our available home inventories are down and buyer demand is building. We could actually benefit from a “mini-dump” to kick-start some additional buyer demand.

Even though many were not in a position to buy a home, tax credits and the sheer size of the buyer pool created enough activity to generate one of the most active real estate markets we have recently seen. Financially distressed sales still made up 75% of all transactions, down from 85% in 2009, with the biggest

shift from bank owned (45% to 36%) to short sales (15% to 20%).

In spite of the uncertainty, homeownership is still a great idea. Short-term prices and interest rates have never been lower. In the long run it is pretty clear our recovery is moving in a positive direction, regardless of how slow it might be. In addition, the demographics for housing demand over the next 5-10 years will be at near record numbers created by the perfect storm of Gen X and Y moving into the prime homeownership ages and Baby Boomers, who have delayed their real estate needs (as a result of the economy), making their lifestyle moves. We can expect the home buying demographic to grow about 15% over the next 5 years and 25% over the next 10. Increased immigration will add some significant fuel for housing appreciation, particularly if new housing starts remain low over the next 3-4 years as expected.

Buyers who have the flexibility to both bid quickly when they need to as well as the patience to wait it out (in the case of a short sale purchase) will have the widest choices for their ideal home. For sellers, it is still a buyer’s market, although getting closer to a neutral market, so pricing will still be the dominate factor in creating activity.

The Real Estate One Family achieved some significant milestones over the past year, handling more clients (26,544) than ever before in our 81-year history. We moved up to the 10th largest real estate broker in the nation and received the first ever Most Innovative Brokerage Award from the Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, the nation’s largest broker network. Also, John Adams Mortgage became the 5th largest FHA lender in Michigan.

In 2011, we will continue to enhance our client experience combining real estate, mortgage, home insurance and title services into an easy one-stop process. Our Virtual Office Website (VOW) called First to Know will improve our clients’ access to market information by providing a personal web portal to follow their market (For Sale, Solds, etc.). Additionally, we have introduced mobile property search applications for smartphones, Androids, iPhones and iPads and continue to have the most viewed broker website in the state, generating 1.9 million unique visitors and 32,700 buyer inquires to our clients’ properties.

There will be great opportunities in the upcoming year as our market recovers and we look forward to providing the finest real estate services available, allowing our clients to take advantage of each of them.

Historically, 2010 and 2011 will be looked upon as the beginning of the housing recovery. To put this past year in perspective, 2010 marked five years since our home value peak in 2005 and the third straight year of increasing market activity (sales and leases) since the unit sales low point of 2007.

Sales Volume for 2010 (Closed Transactions) $2.1 Billion

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2010/2011 Housing Outlook

Homes Sold/Leased 17,582

Unique Visitors to our Websites 1,949,753

Buyers Who Visited our Open Houses29,286

Showing Appointments for our Listings 194,997

Mortgage/Title/Insurance Policies Closed 8,962

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n Home values will, for the first time in some segments, remain stable with only

modest drops in most markets (under 5%).

n Appraisals will continue to be a challenge as lenders will be slow to adjust their

underwriting standards to an improving market.

n The buyer pool will continue to increase as the economy improves and

consumers gain more confidence.

n The first big wave of former homeowners who were forced to sell for financial

reasons will be back in the home buying market with improved credit.

n Short sales will continue to grow, outpacing bank owned as the primary type of

distressed property sale.

n Foreclosure rates will fall and banks will continue to release their home

inventories at a slow pace, keeping available home inventories stable and the

Months Supply of Inventory at its current 6-month level (buyer’s market, but

near neutral).

n Interest rates will rise to near 6% as the economy improves.

n The ability for an average family to purchase a home (Home Affordability

Index) will remain near an all time high — meaning rising interest rates or

even appreciating home values will not have a negative effect on the buyer

population.

n With shrinking equities over the past five years, buyers who do not have to sell

first are the most valuable. There will be a near record number of these buyers

from the growth of Gen X and Y as well as those former homeowners who are

leasing and are now able to move back into homeownership.

n FHA loans will become a hidden value opportunity. Since FHA loans have the

ability to be assumed by the next buyer, a home purchased in 2011 with a 4.5%

FHA loan will have extra value in, say five years, when the interest rates have

risen to 6.5%.

n Banks will get better at short sales as their departments gain more experience

and they begin to implement the government assistance program standards

(HAFFA, HAMP, etc.).

2011Highlights of what we expect to see in

Distribution of Home SalesIn our current buyer’s market, the type of home that is selling has shifted from the traditional profile of the past 20 years.

Bank Owned

Leases

Short Sales

Traditional

This seasonally adjusted chart shows the pace of home sales in Metro Detroit from the peak years ’06 to the low point in ’08. The impact of the Tax Credits and low rates can be seen in the last half of 2009, carrying some momentum into 2010.

Annualized Rate of Home Sales

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AUG 05 AUG 06 AUG 07 AUG 08 AUG 09 AUG 10

It is therefore important to understand where your home fits into the overall market activity. Although traditional owner occupied homes make up a majority of the current homes available for sale, the majority of the homes being sold are bank owned or short sales.

As a traditional seller, in order to stand out in a crowded field, (made even smaller by the buyer’s focus on bank owned) flexibility on pricing, terms, lease vs. sale, or lease to own becomes imperative.

Source: Michigan Association of Realtors, Realcomp II, MiRealSource, Ann Arbor MLS

36%

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2009 2010

“Looking ahead to 2011, the Michigan economy is poised to make modest gains, fueled by increases in auto production and sales, and against a background of gradually accelerating growth,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank.

Both home sales and our website activity follow a similar upward trend since mid 2010, showing the relative strength of the market going into 2011. With increased buyer activity, open house and property showing appointments have remained constant with a slight downward trend, reflecting the reduction in available homes for sale as well as the increased use of the web to presort homes before viewing them. Livingston 37 % $115,000 $160,000 55 140

Macomb 44 % $47,000 $84,250 54 116

Oakland 38 % $60,000 $140,000 57 131

City of Detroit 57 % $9,000 $13,250 45 99

Wayne (w/o Detroit) 46 % $37,000 $75,000 56 112

Market 44 % $53,868 $94,500 53 120 Summary

Bank Owned* Median Sale Price Avg Days on MarketCounty/City % of Total Bank Non-Bank Bank Non-Bank Sales Owned Owned Owned Owned

MICHIGAN ECONOMY FLAT IN NOVEMBER,

REPORTS COMERICA BANK’S MICHIGAN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX

DALLAS/January 20, 2011 – Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index held flat in

November, at a level of 87 for the fourth time in five months. November’s level is up 16 points, or 23

percent, above the cycle low of 71 reached in July 2009. Year-to-date the Index has averaged a level of

85, up 11 points, or 15 percent, from the average for all of 2009.

“Our November Index reading reinforced the flat trend that has emerged in the Michigan economy over

the past five months,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Growth in Michigan

over the 11 months to November has been sluggish and uneven. Looking ahead to 2011, the Michigan

economy is poised to make modest gains, fueled by increases in auto production and sales, and against a

background of gradually accelerating national growth.”

MICHIGAN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX2004 = 100

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The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of

real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service

sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

Comerica Bank is the commercial banking subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a

financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business

segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica

focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and

Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses

operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

###

Media Contact: Data Contact:

Dana Johnson Meaghan Derrick

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Research Assistant

(214) 462-6839 / [email protected] (214) 462-6815 / [email protected]

Michigan Economic Activity Index

Market SnapshotBank Owned vs. Non-Bank Owned | 4th Q 2010

Views and Visits

20%

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Website Activity Report | 4th Q 2010 Hitwise National Broker Ranking ranked by visitsThis chart shows each website’s share of internet visitors for the State of Michigan. RealEstateOne.com (as well as MaxBroock.com and JJRealtors.com) month after month generate more website activity than any other real

estate brokerage site in the state. The benefit for buyers is more available properties and more ways to see them (web and mobile), which provides sellers with their biggest benefit — the most buyers viewing their properties.

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Homes Sold Website Visitors

Showing AppointmentsOpen House Attendance

Homes Sold & Website Visitors

Open House Attendance & Showing Appointments

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*does not include least transactions

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Addison Twp./Leonard 54 -15.6% $183,700 11.8%Auburn Hills/Lake Angelus 210 -5.0% $75,000 27.1%Berkley 262 3.6% $100,000 3.1%Beverly Hills 178 30.9% $184,000 1.1%Bingham Farms Vlg. 15 15.4% $210,000 2.4%Birmingham 494 13.6% $229,000 -1.4%Bloomfield Hills 77 10.0% $411,000 14.2%Bloomfield Twp. 667 25.6% $233,000 5.9%Brandon Twp. 154 4.1% $132,500 11.4%Clarkston 31 55.0% $97,000 -5.3%Clawson 180 10.4% $89,050 14.3%Commerce Twp. 510 1.6% $152,500 13.8%Davisburg/Springfield Twp. 160 -10.6% $163,900 17.2%Farmington 129 -7.2% $110,000 -3.1%Farmington Hills 956 8.3% $135,500 -9.1%Ferndale 433 -10.7% $43,500 1.2%Franklin Vlg. 45 0.0% $290,000 13.8%Groveland Twp. 48 -18.6% $127,500 -20.3%

Hazel Park 392 -4.6% $18,000 5.9%Highland Twp. 197 -10.0% $117,500 -8.2%Holly Twp./Vlg. 192 -6.8% $79,080 6.2%Huntington Woods 88 11.4% $207,000 3.5%Independence Twp. 441 13.7% $160,000 6.0%Keego Harbor 54 -19.4% $42,265 -15.5%Lake Orion Vlg. 50 -5.7% $80,200 23.4%Lathrup Village 78 -33.3% $86,500 14.6%Lyon Twp. 180 3.4% $190,000 5.6%Madison Heights 426 -5.8% $43,130 -0.9%Milford Twp./Vlg. 195 10.8% $171,350 0.9%Novi/Novi Twp. 671 16.9% $177,750 -4.0%Oak Park 486 -11.5% $37,850 8.1%Oakland Twp. 218 23.2% $300,000 7.5%Orchard Lake Vlg. 24 -7.7% $533,750 102.6%Orion Twp. 401 3.4% $143,400 -6.3%Ortonville Vlg. 14 -33.3% $90,000 20.0%Oxford Twp./Vlg. 279 1.5% $154,840 10.7%

Pleasant Ridge 44 10.0% $187,700 23.1%Pontiac 811 -17.6% $12,500 8.7%Rochester 184 23.5% $202,250 -7.8%Rochester Hills 891 21.1% $179,000 10.5%Rose Twp. 63 3.3% $124,000 3.4%Royal Oak/Twp. 999 2.5% $110,588 0.5%South Lyon 182 -4.2% $101,250 -5.8%Southfield/Twp. 1097 -21.8% $51,000 13.3%Sylvan Lake 30 87.5% $100,000 40.7%Troy 808 9.9% $164,000 -3.2%Walled Lake 108 -3.6% $63,000 -0.4%Waterford 1128 1.6% $68,000 4.6%West Bloomfield 949 17.6% $160,000 -3.0%White Lake Twp. 359 -5.3% $128,000 11.1%Wixom 127 6.7% $140,000 -4.8%Wolverine Lake Vlg. 72 14.3% $104,000 9.5% Totals: 16841 2.0% $144,136 8.4%

2010 09/10 2010 09/10Selected Cities Sales % Chng Median % Chng



Oakland County Market Trend

LIVINGSTON

OAKLAND MACOMBWAYNE (excludes City of Detroit)

WASHTENAWThese charts show the changes in market activity by price category over the past three years. This data provides sellers with a feel for expected market activity based on their price point. In all markets the under $100,000 price range represented the largest segment.

Home Sale Distribution by Price Range

8000

2010 Sold 2009 Sold 2008 Sold

Oakland County Market Trend

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Median value changes reflect both the change in home value as well as the change in the type of homes purchased in that area. They should not generally be interpreted as the true value change in any given market. Source: RealComp II, MIRealSource, Ann Arbor MLS

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DEC 08 FEB 09 APR 09 JUN 09 AUG 09 OCT 09 DEC 09 FEB 10 APR 10 JUN 10 AUG 10 OCT 10 DEC 10 DEC 08 FEB 09 APR 09 JUN 09 AUG 09 OCT 09 DEC 09 FEB 10 APR 10 JUN 10 AUG 10 OCT 10 DEC 10

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Months supply computed with a seasonal multiplier.

In a Seller’s market, Buyers must still be willing to act quickly with a strong offer. For sellers, gauge your negotiating strength by the number of showings you are getting.

Watch market conditions. Normal markets tend to be a short term transition towards either a buyer or seller market. Reevaluate your marketing strategy and price every 30 days.

In a Buyer’s market, balance the best combination of price and terms to insure your house is sold in an acceptable timeframe. If there is an 18-month supply of homes, make sure your home sells in month 1 not month 18.

Oakland County | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010

*Buyer’s Market No sales this period in area and price range.

Macomb County Market Trend

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In a seller’s market, buyers must still be willing to act quickly with a strong offer. For sellers, gauge your negotiating strength by the number of showings you are getting.


In a buyer’s market, balance the best combination of price and terms to insure your house is sold in an acceptable timeframe. If there is an 18-month supply of homes, make sure your home sells in Month 1 not Month 18.

*Buyer’s Market No sales this period in area and price range.

Armada Twp. & Vlg. 75 38.9% $102,000 17.1%Bruce Twp. 44 2.3% $205,000 28.1%Center Line 102 -11.3% $30,000 0.3%Chesterfield Twp. 676 4.5% $85,000 -9.9%Clinton Twp. 1190 -1.4% $65,000 5.2%Eastpointe 691 -19.5% $26,000 0.9%Fraser 182 -3.2% $67,000 6.8%Harrison Twp. 351 -6.4% $69,905 7.5%Lenox Twp. 31 0.0% $92,600 -5.5%Macomb Twp 957 -2.0% $167,900 -0.1%Mt. Clemens 261 -4.0% $28,000 12.3%New Baltimore 172 -11.8% $107,500 -14.0%New Haven 66 -24.1% $75,950 -0.7%

Ray Twp. 25 25.0% $114,000 -13.6%Richmond &

Richmond Twp. 117 -7.9% $92,000 4.0%Romeo 61 8.9% $71,000 7.7%Roseville 811 -17.7% $26,000 -7.1%Shelby Twp./Utica 746 11.2% $129,400 -7.2%St Clair Shores 1026 1.2% $55,278 2.4%Sterling Heights 1317 -0.5% $99,000 -1.0%Warren 1600 -9.1% $54,273 5.5%Washington Twp. 247 -1.2% $80,000 -53.4% Totals: 10748 -4.5% $83,764 -3.5%



Macomb County | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010

Livingston County Market Trend

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Brighton 134 14.5% $128,500 7.6%Brighton Twp. 225 21.6% $168,000 -1.2%Cohoctah Twp. 34 -20.9% $92,250 -10.4%Conway Twp. 47 -4.1% $110,000 15.8%Deerfield Twp. 59 78.8% $134,000 34.0%Fowlerville Vlg. 43 -4.4% $76,900 21.1%Genoa Twp. 273 9.2% $172,000 12.6%Grass Lake &

Grass Lake Twp. 17 -5.6% $153,219 -1.3%Green Oak Twp. 239 21.9% $169,000 0.5%Hamburg Twp. 295 8.1% $159,900 -2.5%Handy Twp. 65 -21.7% $100,000 -6.1%Hartland Twp. 168 -5.1% $169,900 9.6%

Howell 134 21.8% $69,500 -17.8%Howell Twp. 114 7.5% $67,900 -18.9%Iosco Twp. 46 -16.4% $120,000 -5.7%Marion Twp. 131 -7.1% $145,000 3.6%Oceola Twp. 165 -2.4% $140,000 -6.7%Pickney Vlg. 23 -28.1% $117,500 1.7%Putnam Twp. 58 -27.5% $130,550 1.8%Stockbridge &

Stockbridge Twp. 16 0.0% $88,125 -24.8%Tyrone Twp. 122 11.9% $138,500 -8.3%Unadilla Twp. 35 -23.9% $75,000 -5.3% Totals: 2443 4.7% $123,897 -0.1%



Livingston County | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010





Washtenaw County Market Trend

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Washtenaw County | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010

Ann Arbor Condo 880 20.1% $139,963 52.5%Ann Arbor Residential 1246 -0.6% $275,248 25.4%Chelsea 208 7.8% $167,675 15.4%Dexter 242 8.5% $247,633 10.3%Grass Lake 40 -11.1% $145,780 10.4%Manchester 64 -4.5% $108,201 -17.1%Milan 180 9.8% $104,281 9.5%

Pinckney 390 -5.1% $150,346 5.1%Saline 352 -5.6% $254,322 15.4%Ypsilanti 405 -12.9% $77,041 24.4% Totals: 4007 2.0% $167,049 14.1%



Residential data only





Wayne County Market Trend

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Belleville 51 10.9% $79,950 -3.1%Canton 1047 4.6% $152,000 -1.9%Dearborn 1752 17.7% $52,000 -8.8%Dearborn Heights 1150 -1.0% $50,000 7.2%Garden City 481 -4.9% $47,000 11.2%Huron Twp. 162 14.9% $134,300 3.3%Inkster 304 -30.0% $12,550 4.6%Livonia 1127 3.6% $104,900 -6.3%Northville/Northville Twp. 482 15.0% $277,140 4.3%Plymouth/Plymouth Twp. 440 0.2% $167,270 -5.6%Redford 1029 -6.0% $35,000 2.9%Romulus 315 -35.2% $39,000 -4.2%

Sumpter Twp. 99 -22.7% $79,500 32.5%Van Buren 384 -9.2% $115,000 4.5%Wayne 257 -10.8% $29,100 11.9%Westland 1036 -18.2% $55,000 0.0% Totals: 10116 -2.8% $89,357 1.7%



Wayne County | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010





City of Detroit Market Trend

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The Grosse Pointes Market Trend

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Allen Park 359 -0.6% $64,000 -7.2%Brownstown Twp 337 2.7% $125,960 0.7%Ecorse 86 -14.9% $8,556 22.2%Flat Rock 93 -17.7% $80,000 -10.1%Gibraltar 57 72.7% $90,000 14.9%Grosse Ille 147 20.5% $176,700 13.7%Lincoln Park 641 -23.0% $26,000 8.3%Melvindale 164 -21.5% $26,025 13.2%River Rouge 59 -35.2% $8,000 45.5%Riverview 106 -2.8% $73,975 0.0%Rockwood 39 69.6% $49,000 -7.7%Southgate 338 -12.2% $55,222 -5.4%Taylor 791 -15.8% $35,000 16.7%

Trenton 224 3.2% $77,250 3.0%Woodhaven 150 5.6% $80,000 -20.8%Wyandotte 313 -17.6% $48,000 10.0% Totals: 3904 -11.0% $63,981 1.2%



Downriver | market inventory report detail | oct-dec 2010





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