2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at MonroeDr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will

be made available for review on-line at:

cba.ulm.edu/cber

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP

State

2005-2007 2007-2009

Rank  % change Rank  % change

Oregon 1 13.6% 31 -2.7%

Wyoming 2 13.0% 1 19.6%

Utah 3 12.5% 11 0.2%

Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%

Arizona 5 10.0% 46 -5.9%

Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%

State

2005-2007 2007-2009

Rank % change Rank % change

Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%

Arkansas 31 3.4% 10 0.6%

Mississippi 21 5.0% 9 0.8%

Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued

Metropolitan Area

2005-2007 2007-2009

State Rank

% change

State Rank

% change

Lafayette 1 16.7% 3 4.6%

Alexandria 2 6.7% 7 -2.3%

Shreveport-Bossier City 3 3.3% 1 9.3%

Monroe 4 1.9% 6 -1.6%

Baton Rouge 5 -7.9% 4 1.8%

New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner 6 -11.3% 2 5.8%

Lake Charles 7 -31.3% 5 0.4%

The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA

Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010

2000-2010 change in US = 9.7%2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%

Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010

Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800

Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA

Hispanic as % of Population 1980 2010

Louisiana 2.35% 4.25%United States 6.45% 16.35%

Other Economic Indicators

New Light Trucks/Vans:

State/Year 2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 157,665 126,574 92,105 98,783NE Louisiana 10,201 8,418 6,281 7,057

New Automobiles:

2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 98,083 89,258 65,782 61,637NE Louisiana 4,462 4,376 3,254 3,399

NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles:

Source: Cross-Sell Reports

Building Permits:

Housing Permits Ouachita Parish

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Building Permits 580 516 437 271 232 219Total Cost (millions $) $103.6 $89.5 $68.0 $47.3 $38.5 $37.3

Building Permit Value:

Source: U.S. Census

% Change Median Price

Rank State % change 2008-10

1 North Dakota 10.2%

2 Oklahoma 4.0%

3 Iowa 3.0%

4 Louisiana 2.6%

5 Nebraska 2.2%

2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States

Northeast LA = +3.2%United States = -12.7%

Source: National Association of Realtors

And the lowest ranking states:

Rank State% change in median price

2008-10

46 California -17.8%

47 Idaho -17.9%

48 Florida -26.4%

49 Arizona -28.6%

50 Nevada -31.8%

  2008 2009 2010 %chg 2008-10

Baton Rouge $165,000 $163,000 $169,600 +2.8%New Orleans $160,500 $160,100 $159,700 -0.5%Monroe $129,000 $134,000 $135,000 +4.7%Shreveport $138,500 $147,000 $156,600 +13.1%

% Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s:

Source: National Association of Realtors

  Home Price less than $200,000  2008 2009 2010Close price $115,000 $118,000 $114,500Price per Sq Foot $71.05 $73.49 $72.11

  Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000  2008 2009 2010Close price $252,000 $249,900 $252,000Price per Sq Foot $106.41 $106.33 $107.51

  All Existing Homes  2008 2009 2010Close price $128,850 $133,000 $133,000Price per Sq Foot $77.12 $80.81 $79.73

Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise…

Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS

  2008 2009 2010

Under $200,000 1262 1198 1161

$200,000 and up 290 317 340

Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010listings 2758 2745 2664 2417 2643sales 1730 1679 1552 1513 1501

Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union

And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0

•Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%)

•Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%)

•U.S (+13.8%)

Source: U.S. Federal Court

Ouachita Parish Foreclosures2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010593 486 601 655 601 650 582

Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):

The Labor Market

Total Covered Employment (Jobs):

Figures as of 2nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.

Construction:

Manufacturing:

Retail Trade:

Finance and Insurance:

Health Care & Social Assistance:

*US data contains both education and health care

Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):

  Unemployed   Dec-07 Dec-10

Alexandria 2,546 4,720Baton Rouge 13,529 27,103Houma 2,679 5,213Lafayette 3,596 4,656Lake Charles 3,530 6,379Monroe 3,524 6,139New Orleans 17,072 38,136Shreveport 7,799 12,079

  Unemployment Rate (%)  Dec-07 Dec-10

Alexandria 3.8 6.7Baton Rouge 3.7 7.1Houma 2.6 5.1Lafayette 3.3 5.6Lake Charles 3.8 6.7Monroe 4.4 7.7New Orleans 3.3 7.0

Shreveport 4.3 6.6

Unemployment by MSA:

Source: Laworks.net

US 12/2010=9.1%LA 12/2010=7.2%

   Dec-09 R Dec-10 R

Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana 1,890,000 1,899,300Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana 1,518,700 1,534,700

         Dec 2007 R Dec 2009 R Dec 2010 R

Mining & Logging 51,600 47,300 52,300 Oil & Gas Extraction 7,900 8,900 8,600 Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext 7,800 8,600 8,000 Support Activities for Mining 39,200 36,400 39,600 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells 9,600 7,300 9,000

Louisiana Employment:

LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2%US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%

Regional Outlook

Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years:

•Manufacturing•Autos•Food processing

•Telecommunications

•Financial Services/Information

5 year estimates of growth (range):

% change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas

F/T Equivalent Jobs HH Income

Direct Effects 230 $9.2 Million

Indirect Effects 300 $7.5 Million

Total Impact 530 $16.7 Million

Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:

Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA.

  100% of Spending

 F/T equivalent

Jobs HH IncomeFrom University Spending 5,830 $340 millionFrom Student Spending 2,020 $37 million

Total Impact 7,850 $377 million

5% Cut in SpendingF/T equivalent

Jobs HH Income

-292 -$17.0 million

-101 -$1.85 million

-393 -$18.85 million

And a 5% cut in State funding:

Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit.

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