2013 World Energy Issues Monitor Report Feb2013

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For sustainable energy.

2013 World EnergyIssues Monitor

World Energy Council

For sustainable energy.


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Officers of the World Energy Council

Pierre GadonneixChair

Abubakar SamboVice Chair, Africa

Liu, TienanVice Chair, Asia

Arup Roy ChoudhuryVice Chair, Asia Pacific/South Asia

Younghoon David Kim

Acting Chair, 2013 Congress, Daegu

Leonhard BirnbaumVice Chair, Europe

Jos Antonio Vargas LlerasVice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean

Taha M. ZatariVice Chair, Special Responsibility for Middle East &Gulf States

Kevin MeyersVice Chair, North America

Marie-Jos Nadeau

Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee

Graham Ward, CBEChair, Finance

Jos da Costa Carvalho NetoChair, Programme Committee

Brian StathamChair, Studies Committee

Christoph FreiSecretary General

2013 World Energy Issues Monitor


Copyright 2013 World Energy Council

All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or

reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each

copy or transmission: Used by permission of the World Energy

Council, London, www.worldenergy.org

Published 2013 by:


Regency House, 14 Warwick StreetLondon W1B 5LT, United Kingdom

ISBN: 978 0 946121 20 5

2013 WorldEnergy IssuesMonitor


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2013 World Energy Issues Monitor World Energy Council

Contents 1

1. Introduction 2

2. Assessing the Global Energy Agenda 5Analysis by Christoph Frei, PhD, Secretary General,World Energy Council

3. Assessing the Regional Energy Agenda - 9

Analysis ofWECs Six Regions for Issues Maps

3.1 Africas Critical Agenda 93.2 Asias Critical Agenda 113.3 Europes Critical Agenda 133.4 Latin America and the Caribbeans Critical Agenda 153.4 Middle East and North Africas Critical Agenda 173.6 North Americas Critical Agenda 19

4. Assessing Countries Energy Agenda - 22Analysis of six selected countries

4.1 Colombias Critical Agenda 224.2 Germanys Critical Agenda 244.3 Indias Critical Agenda 254.4 Indonesias Critical Agenda 264.5 South Africas Critical Agenda 274.6 Switzerlands Critical Agenda 29

5. Assessing the Global Agenda - 31Feedback from our Future Energy Leaders (FELs)

Project Participation 33

Contents

23


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2013 World Energy Issues Monitor


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Decision makers face a multitude of choices

and possible actions, some of which will

succeed through sheer market forces while

others require coordination between market

signals and policy frameworks. The

breakthrough of shale gas in the US

exemplifies the market forces driver and the

slow progress of energy efficiency measures, in

a context where energy prices are subsidised,

illustrates the potential role of policy drivers, or

what can happen when the signals are notstrong enough. We can only advance a

meaningful dialogue among the Global Energy

Leaders Community if we focus on a set of

clearly identified priorities. WECs World

Energy Issues Monitor provides a snapshot on

what keeps Energy Ministers, CEOs and

leading experts in over 90 countries awake at

night and therefore defines the World Energy

Agenda and its evolution over time.


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World Energy Council 2013 World Energy Issues Monitor

The arrows in g. 3 illustrate the evolution of

selected issues and issues clusters over threeyears. Regionalised issues mapping in g. 2

show the difference in regional perceptions withthe global perception in the centre.

Figure 1

Global Map

need for

action

critical

uncertainties

impact

uncertainty

weak

signals

climate

framework

large scale

accidents

Global

recession

capital

markets

commodity

pricesenergy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy water

nexus

talent

energy

povertyenergy affordability

corruption

China India

Brazil Russia

EU cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriers

regional

interconnection

business

cycle

innovative

regulationenergy

subsidies

sustainable

cities energyefficiency

ccs

renewable

energiesbiofuels smartgrids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic

geopolitics& regional

businessenvironment

vision &technology

World Energy Issues MonitorGlobal, 2012


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Australia, on the way to become one of the

worlds largest LNG exporters, has re-

directed its interest from North America to

Asia and Canadas infrastructure

companies have also started watching out

for Asian customers. Price volatility is also

about solar, where module costs have

collapsed since 2008 from over 4.5 $/Wp

to as low as 0.6 $/Wp. This is largely

driven by low-cost production in China but

has been accentuated by the fact that2012 demand has not kept up with

expectations and absorbed less than half

of the global manufacturing capacity of

about 100 GWp.

Where Energy Leaders have

changed their views most

radically

The issue with the most dynamic changeover the past years is carbon capture,

utilisation and storage (CCS/CCUS) which

is almost flying off the map: without a

formal price for CO2 emission avoidance

this technology is at risk of simply being

seen as adding cost and bringing down

energy efficiency. This must be of highest

concern as we lock ourselves into a high

CO2 emission future for the next 40 to 50

years with every new coal and othercarbon emitting plant that is built. Only a

combination of CCS/CCUS and, possibly,

a partial substitution of coal input with solid

biomass can mitigate CO2 emissions of

existing plants.

The issue that is most clearly identified as

a game changer, with its solid trend

towards the action space, is

unconventionals. This is about

unconventional oil (shale oil, tight oil,

beyond Canadian oil sands or Venezuelan

heavy or extra-heavy oil) as much as it isabout the still-hot topic of shale gas. The

technology revolution is continuing and

while further progress is needed to

address the energy-water nexus and the

costs associated with mitigating

greenhouse gas emissions, production

volumes continue to increase. This has

given rise to North American energy supply

independence becoming a possibility

within less than a decade. Such supplyindependence is however put into

perspective as crude markets, and

therefore prices are global and US prices

will continue to depend on international

developments. Meanwhile, we do not see

other regions replicate the US success at

the same speed for a number of reasons

including geological, legal, logistical,

financial and issues related to the water

nexus. However, projects are being

developed around the world which will

eventually change the global supply map.

supply


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Figure 2

Global Map geographical-tracking

need for

action

criticaluncertainties

weaksignals

climate framework

energy water nexus

issues tracking color:

Asia

Africa

EuropeLatAm

MENANAm

OECD

NonOECD

G20

climate framework

Asia

Africa

Europe

LatAm

MENA

NAm

OECD

NonOECDG20

energy water nexus

impact

uncertainty



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Figure 3

Global Map time-tracking

need foraction


weak

signals

energy

efficiency

ccs

renewableenergies

nuclear

unconventionals

issues tracking color:ccs

energy efficiency

nuclear

renewable energiesunconventionals

2011

20092010

2011

2010

2009

2011

20092010

2011

20092010

2011

impact

uncertaint

y



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Figure 4

Regional Map Africa

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

weaksignals

climate

framework

large scale

accidents

global recession

capital

markets

commodity prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy water

nexus

talent

energy

povertyenergy

affordability

corruption

China

India

Brazil

Russia

EU cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers regionalinterconnection

business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies sustainablecities

energy

efficiency

ccsrenewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storagenuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertainty

World Energy Issues MonitorAfrica, 2012


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Figure 5

Regional Map Asia

need foraction

weaksignals


climate

framework

large scale

accidents

globalrecession

capital

markets

Commodity

prices

energy

pricescurrency

uncertainty

energy water

nexus

talentenergy

poverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China

India

Brazil

Russia EU Cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriersregional

interconnection

Business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

Sustainable

citiesenergy

efficiency

ccs

renewable

energiesbiofuels

smart grids

electric vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

,

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertainty

World Energy Issues MonitorAsia, 2012


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India has mandated the early retirement

of inefficient coal-fired power plant in

their National Action Plan on Climate

Change, while in China, according to

U.S. EIA statistics & analysis, the

government's 12th Five-Year Plan calls

for a production ceiling of 4.4 billion

short tons 3.9 billion metric tons and

capacity ceiling of 4.1 billion metric tons

by 2015 in an attempt to control the

production growth of coal.

In this part of the world, issues that have

seen the highest changes are electric

storage and smart grids which have

gained ground as people may expect

that technology to solve electricity

shortage of some states. This is

followed by currency uncertainty and

global recession, both of which have

been quite affected by the Europeaneconomic crises. CCS, on the contrary,

has continued to lose its ground and as

a result, its importance on the overall

issues map.

Energy subsidies and energy efficiency

are issues that are viewed by politicians

and energy leaders in the region to

require action. Some countries have

experienced rapid electricity demand

growth under their distorted energy pricestructures where the electricity tariff has

been kept low, below its production cost,

and therefore does not properly reflect

the cost of all energy resources for

electricity. This is basically due to

government regulation. Even worse, the

incentive for enhancing energy

efficiency of the high energy intensive

industries does not work well under such

electricity price regulation schemes, with

subsidised and hence cheap electricity

prices, as it creates disincentives for

investment. To overcome this dilemma,governments in the region should build

up a cost-reflective energy price policy

to attract voluntary energy saving from

consumers which in turn could lead to a

reduction of imports of primary energy

sources. In addition to energy efficiency,

the two issues requiring action are smart

grids and sustainable cities models as

they may deal with increasing demand

for electricity and shortage of electricitysupply issues more effectively.

While not strongly represented on the

issue map for its actions, energy poverty

in the South Asia and Pacific region

needs to be dealt with most

immediately.


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Figure 6

Regional Map Europe

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

weak

signals

climateframework

large scale

accidents

global

recession

capital markets

commodity

prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy water

nexustalent

energypoverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China IndiaBrazil

Russia

EU Cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers

regional

interconnection

Business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

cities

energy

efficiency

ccs

renewable

energiesbiofuels

smart grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storagenuclear

large

scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

urope,

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertainty

World Energy Issues MonitorEurope, 2012


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One of the highest change issues is

unconventionals i.e. the use of and the

generation of electric energy from

unconventional energy sources, such as

shale oil and shale gas. While the shale

gas development has been much

contested in many European states, low

gas prices have continued in the US. If

this is the case, the economic impact of

the unconventionals could be felt in two

ways: Firstly, as a pressure on the gasprices in the European market, and

consequently it would also add pressure

on the existing long-term contracts with

price indices that do not reflect changes

in market prices for natural gas. Secondly,

due to the relatively cheaper gas of the

US, some large gas-consuming

companies are considering building their

new industrial sites in the US, leading to

lower demand for natural gas in Europe.

Nuclear is another issue that has changedsignificantly, which has lost importance,

although many European countries have

taken nuclear as part of the solution for

climate change equation. A declining

economic outlook for Europe, however,

has also slowed down the progress of

developing new nuclear projects. With

shale gas becoming more available in the

US, the coal exports to Europe have

increased significantly from 2010 to 2011.

The US continues to become a global coal

supplier, especially to Europe.

According to leading energy experts and

policy makers, the following issues require

actions to be taken. First, regarding

renewables, some renewable energy

producers are in economic trouble

because of the economic downturn and

retroactive cuts of the European promotion

schemes such as feed-in-tariffs. These

schemes should be more aligned with

each other and with the internal European

market. Second, as far as Russia isconcerned, it would be necessary to

establish price-indexed formulas for

natural gas imports without compromising

the objectives of long-term gas contracts,

i.e. to find a balance between competitive

gas prices and secure delivery/supply-

relations. Third, with regard to China, as it

has become an enormous energy

consumer (which affects European energy

markets and prices), Europe must get

ready for it by reducing the fossil fueldemand in the long term, this may be

encouraged by a strong price signal for

CO2.

(*1) Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency,

amending Directives 2009/125/EC and

2010/30/EU and repealing Directives 2004/8/EC

and 2006/32/EC


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Figure 7

Regional Map Latin America

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

impact

weaksignals

climate

framework

large scale

accidents

global recession

capital markets

commodity

pricesenergy

prices

currency

uncertainty energy water nexus

talent

energypoverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China

India

BrazilRussia

EU

Cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers

regional

interconnection

Business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

citiesenergy

efficiency

ccs

renewable energies

biofuels

smart gridselectric

vehicles

electric storagenuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorLatin America, 2012


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crude oil, may become another critical

uncertain issue as it would be affected

by struggling global economy or

China/India economy which may not

going as fast as previous years.

As an issue on the energy policy

agenda, climate framework does not

seem to have such a high impact as it

has on the global agenda or in other

regions or as of in previous years,though it still remains in a high

uncertainties area on the issues map.

High change issues are renewables,

CCS and electric vehicles. Renewables

and CCS have moved down to a lower

impact area on the issues map. In

contrast, large scale hydro moves up

straight to the high impact, uncertain

area, receiving much more attention

than renewables. In terms of price

competitiveness, hydro would be far

stronger than photovoltaic/solar or wind.

The electric vehicles become an issue

with far less impact or uncertainty

attached to it.

Therefore, while still in the uncertainty

area on the issues map, large scale

hydro may be one of the most important

issues that require immediate action tobe taken as it might be a major source

of electric energy for countries in the

LAC region. Problems often associated

with the construction of new large scale

hydro power, such as social issues,

environment issues, technologies and

capital market situations need to be

solved altogether. Accordingly,

innovative regulation and regional

interconnection need action as they are

related to this issue of investment in and

the construction of new large scale

hydro power

Though energy poverty may look less

important as an issue in this years issue

map, the importance of this issue may

be still felt as it might require more

action than can be seen on the map.


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Figure 8

Regional Map MENA

need for

action


weak

signals

climate framework

large scale

accidents

global

recession

capital

marketscommodity

prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy water

nexus

talent

energy

poverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China

IndiaBrazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US

policy

terrorism

trade barriers regionalinterconnection

Business

cycle

Innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

Sustainable

cities

energy

efficiency

ccsrenewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids electricvehicleselectricstorage

nuclear

large

scale

hydro

unconventionalshydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorMENA, 2012


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hydrocarbons available for export. While

the issue of CCS is becoming less

prominent on the issues map. GCC

member states are now implement the

regions first Carbon Capture and

Storage projects, such as UAE testing

the enhanced oil recovery performance

which may add more value to CCS. As

far as unconventionals are concerned,

regional oil and gas producers see its

reserves as the way forward. Ultra-sourgas in very tight reservoirs hitherto

considered non-commercial is now

being developed to supply growing

markets.

The region has seen the importance of

renewables grow, such as solar to make

up for domestic oil consumption growth.

While countries are highly dependent on

oil/gas exports for their economicgrowth, energy efficiency should be

another issue to be dealt with to cope

with local demand for energy. Ensuring

electricity supply for both air conditioning

and desalination purposes is a priority.

The region also needs investment to

cope with the energy poverty or access

issues. The region could be a real front

runner, as we have seen in the Masdar

Project in Abu Dhabi, UAE which seeks

to deliver the concept of a green city.

Similar growth of renewables may also

be observed if they could successfully

develop DESERTC for example. The

benefit could be to further strengthen

ties with Europe in terms of economy,

energy security, technology and mutual

goal of decarbonisation.

DESERTEC


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Figure 9

Regional Map North America

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

weaksignals

climate

framework

large

scale

accidents

global

recession

capital

markets

Commodity

prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexustalent

Energy

poverty

energy affordability

corruption

China IndiaBrazil

Russia

EU

Cohesion

Middle Eastdynamics

US policyterrorism

trade barriers

regional

interconnection

Business

cycle

Innovative

regulation

energysubsidies

sustainable

cities

energyefficiency

ccs

renewable

energies

biofuels

smart grids

electric

vehicles

electric storage

nuclear

largescale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertaint

y

World Energy Issues MonitorNorth America, 2012


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mandates for GHG reductions are also a

critical uncertainty with some impact

across the region where cross border

enterprise in wind power pertains.

As far as Nuclear, it appears as a more

critical uncertainty in North America as

compared to the global level. This is likely

to be because North America has the

largest number of nuclear plant (U.S. over

100) and they are aging. Even with lifeextension granted for 20 more years,

most existing plants will be retired by

2050 when the U.S. power system is

expected to be decarbonized. Questions

therefore arise if these facilities can be

replaced. The current and projected future

price of natural gas calls into question the

economic viability of new nuclear and if

the country will pay a price premium for

zero CO2 emission power and fordiversity of supply.

Canadas nuclear industry remains

uncertain, with aging infrastructure, some

closures and slow decision making on

refurbishment, let alone on the creation of

new facilities.

Access to and diversification of markets

for Canadas energy products is a

continuing uncertainty. Renewablesmarkets have a large domestic element

but cross border activity, particularly with

the United States presents challenges.

Again, as illustration, the U.S. wind power

production tax credit and its renewal will

influence the development of wind power

in Canada. The tax credit represents an

incentive to some of the Canadian wind

power industry that will turn upon renewal.

Larger development of the domestic

market for renewables, broadly speaking,

rests upon the increase and continued

existence of subsidies.

Regarding oil and gas, for both

conventional and nonconventional,

Canadas primary market the United

States is shifting with its own capacity on

the increase. International markets

outside of the continent present

opportunity. However, the ability for

Canada to export its oil and gas product

outside of North America is constrainedthrough insufficient infrastructure.

In North America unconventional oil and

gas are a rising issue, which is more

predominant than anywhere else in the

world given that its prospects look much

more successful. However, questions

arise over the environmental regulatory

treatment of hydraulic fracturing and this

issue might in turn be linked to the issue

of the energy-water nexus. Thistechnology is essential to tap into

unconventional resources. Hence, if


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banned (as in the case of parts of New

York state) its future production levels are

threatened. It should be noted that

decades of experience indicate that

fracturing is safe and water issues can be

properly addressed if industry best

practices are followed.

Additionally, CCS, is seen as both

uncertain and impactful, given that it is

critical to continue the use of fossil fuels ina carbon constrained world and because

North America has by far the largest

number of CCS demonstration plants: 8

industrial scale units in the U.S. and 2

industrial scale units in Canada will

become operational by 2020. And since 6

of those units are intended for enhanced

oil recovery CCS becomes more

highlighted in the context of utilizing

CCUS technology (with utilization addingvalue to CCS by providing a revenue

stream to CCS plants). However, a more

progressive roadmap or actions will be

required to enable the CCS/CCUS

technology to become established, rather

than remaining in the demonstration

phase.

In Mexico the large fossil fuels and

electricity subsidies are an important

economic issue with a high degree ofuncertainty to reduce or eliminate them

due to the political implications.


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4 Assessing CountriesCritical Energy Agenda -Analysis of five selectedcountries for Issues Maps


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4.1 Colombias Critical AgendaEnergy subsidies and high energy

prices are critical uncertainty issues asthey are both affecting social equity,

although energy subsidies could be

effective and efficient when applied in

the right way.

Smart grid is also quite a critical

uncertainty issues as it lacks regulation

for proper return on investment or

financial support. Energy efficiency

may be an important factor in

influencing smart energy consumptionand might help to achieve overall

sustainability.

In addition, large scale hydro needs

action as it is an uncertainty issue.

Though Colombia has potential to

develop this resource, only a small

fraction of the overall potential

resources has been developed so far.

In order to develop these sources

further, it will be necessary to reconcile

with regulation as the dam puts impact

on society, animals and environment

by flooding of farmland and forests.

Figure 10

National Map Colombia

need for

action


weaksignals

climate

frameworklarge scale

accidents

globalrecession

capital

markets

commodity

pricesenergy prices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexus

talent

energy poverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China

India

Brazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

middle east

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers

regional

interconnectionBusiness

cycle

Innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

cities

energy

efficiency

ccsrenewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorColombia, 2012


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Figure 11

National Map Germany

need for

action

critical

uncertainties

weak

signals

Climate

framework

large scale

accidents

global

recession

capital

markets

commodity

prices

energyprices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexus

talent

energy

poverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China India

Brazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

Middle East dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers regionalinterconnectionBusinesscycle

Innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable cities

energy

efficiency

ccs

renewable

energies

biofuelssmart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large

scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertainty

World Energy Issues MonitorGermany, 2012


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Figure 12

National Map India

need foraction


weaksignals

climate

framework

large scale

accidentsglobal

recession

capital

markets

commodity

prices

energy

pricescurrency

uncertaintyenergy water nexus

talent

energy

povertyenergy

affordability

corruption

China India

Brazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriersregional

interconnection

Business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

citiesenergyefficiency

ccs

renewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large

scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorIndia, 2012


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Figure 13

National Map Indonesia

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

weaksignals

climate

frameworklarge scale accidents

global

recession

capital

markets

commodity

pricesenergy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexus

talent

energy

povertyenergy

affordability

corruptionChina

India

Brazil

RussiaEU

cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers

regional

interconnection

business

cycle

innovativeregulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

cities

energy

efficiencyccs

renewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large scale hydrounconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorIndonesia, 2012


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Figure 14

National Map South Africa

need foraction

critical

uncertainties

weaksignals

climate

framework

large scale

accidentsglobalrecession

capital

markets

commodity

prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexus

talent

energy

poverty

energy

affordabilitycorruption

China

India

Brazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriers

regional

interconnection Businesscycle

Innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

cities

energy

efficiency

ccs

renewable

energiesbiofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storagenuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorSouth Africa, 2012


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In action areas of the issues map, the

energy-water nexus is addressed as it

is very much related to RSAs energy

supply to achieve energy equity and

energy security while at the same time

RSA is already struggling to maintain

security of water supply. This is also

probably why biofuels are a low priority

because their stress on water supply

means they may never be a significant

part of the RSA energy mix.Other issues in the action areas are

renewables and China and India. In

particular, the government in RSA is

expected to facilitate the process of

introducing wind, solar and CSP,

otherwise it would threaten the

necessary financial arrangement to

materialize.


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Figure 15

National Map Switzerland

need for

action

weaksignals


climate

framework

large scale

accidentsglobal

recession

capital markets

commodity

prices

energy

pricescurrency

uncertainty

energy

water

nexus

talent

energy

poverty

energy

affordability

corruption

China India

Brazil

RussiaEU

cohesion

Middle East dynamics

US policy

terrorismtrade barriers

regionalinterconnection

business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

citiesenergy

efficiency

ccs

renewable

energies

biofuels

smart

grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storagenuclear

large scale

hydro

unconventionalshydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertaint

y

World Energy Issues MonitorSwitzerland, 2012


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vision of the Energy Strategy 2050,are considered as a need for action.Renewable energies together withenergy subsidies remain listedunder uncertainties, whereas the needfor action for installing smart gridsseems to be accepted today. Thereare only weak signals concerningregional interconnection. This israther surprising, as regionalinterconnection is a condition for

embedding electricity from renewablesources into the supply system and asthe negotiations between Switzerlandand the European Union on anagreement for the electricity sector arepending.


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The climate framework and mitigating the

negative impact of climate change are among

the most critical uncertainties for the Future

Energy Leader (FEL) community. This is

unsurprising given the insolvency of on-going

debates around a new Kyoto agreement and

the lack of collective commitment fromcountries to address and tackle climate

change issues. Future Energy Leaders pay

much attention to the development of

unconventional energy resources,

renewables, and electric storage technologies.

The development of these innovative

technologies can be expensive and time

consuming however; so there is some doubt

as to whether they will ever replace

conventional resources altogether and meetgrowing energy demands of the future. Future

Energy Leaders place importance on global

macroeconomic factors, the rise of energy

prices and commodity prices that directly

impact development of the energy industry.

The FEL perspective shares a number of

parallels with that of the Global Energy

Leader. Both communities consider climate

framework to be a fundamental globaluncertainty. Fluctuating energy prices and the

global recession are other key instabilities that

jeopardise development of the energy

sector and feature in both maps. High

growth rates in China and India have

increased the demand for energy in the

region which will significantly impact the

global energy industry. The advent of

unconventional resources such as shale oil& shale gas highlights the need for future

investment in energy efficient technologies.

Future Energy Leaders identify

unconventional, renewables and energy

storage technologies as critical issues and

should therefore be understood as key

drivers for the future.

The Future Energy Leaders outlook

suggests that immediate investment intoenergy efficient and energy saving

technologies is necessary. Recognising

and acknowledging such technologies as

energy sources of the future will enable

global populations to use energy effectively

and provide consumers with a reliable,

future energy supply at an affordable rate.

5 Assessing the GlobalAgenda - Feedback fromour Future Energy Leaders(FELs)


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Figure 16

Global Map Future Energy Leaders

need foraction


weaksignals

climate

framework

large scale

accidents

global

recession

capital

markets

commodity

prices

energy

prices

currency

uncertainty

energy

water nexus

talent

energypoverty

energy

affordability

corruptionChina

IndiaBrazil

Russia

EU

cohesion

Middle East

dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade

barriers regionalinterconnection

business

cycle

innovative

regulation

energy

subsidies

sustainable

cities

energyefficiency

ccs

renewable

energies

biofuels

smart grids

electric

vehicles

electric

storage

nuclear

large scalehydro

unconventionals

hydrogen

economy

macroeconomic


businessenvironment

vision &technology

impact

uncertain

ty

World Energy Issues MonitorGlobal, 2012, Future Energy Leaders


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Thanks also to the many energy leaders and

policymakers who kindly gave their insights

and expertise on an anonymous basis.


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AlbaniaAlgeriaArgentinaAustriaBelgiumBoliviaBotswana

BrazilBulgariaCameroonCanadaChadChinaColombiaCongo (DemocraticRepublic)Cte d'IvoireCroatiaCyprusCzech Republic

DenmarkEgypt (Arab Republic)EstoniaEthiopiaFinlandFranceGabonGermanyGhanaGreeceHong Kong, ChinaHungary

IcelandIndiaIndonesiaIran (Islamic Republic)IrelandIsraelItaly

JapanJordanKazakhstanKenyaKorea (Republic)KuwaitLatviaLebanonLibya/GSPLAJLithuaniaLuxembourgMacedonia (Republic)Mexico

MonacoMoroccoNamibiaNepalNetherlandsNew ZealandNigerNigeriaPakistanParaguay

PeruPhilippinesPolandPortugalQatarRomaniaRussian Federation

Saudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSouth AfricaSpainSri LankaSwazilandSwedenSwitzerlandSyria (Arab Republic)Taiwan, China

TanzaniaThailandTrinidad & TobagoTunisiaTurkeyUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited StatesUruguayZimbabwe

Member committees of the World Energy Council


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Documents

2013 World Energy Issues Monitor Report Feb2013