20140120 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia

8/13/2019 20140120 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia

1/31


2/31

ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK

WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETSWHO WON, WHO LOST AND WHO LOOKED STUPID

INFLATION OR DEFLATION

A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSI

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOW UPDATE

A QUICK TOUR OF ASIAN DATA THIS WEEK

KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD


3/31

AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Dow 0.13% 16,459 16,437

S&P -0.16% 1,839 1,842

FTSE 1.32% 6,829 6,740

Nikkei -1.12% 15,734 15,912

Shanghai -0.40% 2,005 2,013

ASX 200 -0.32% 5,295 5,312


4/31

AROUND THE GROUNDSGLOBAL F

Global FX Weekly Change This Week Last Week

EURUSD -1.07% 1.3526 1.3672

USDJPY 0.32% 104.27 103.94

GBPUSD -0.36% 1.6420 1.6480

AUDUSD -2.42% 0.8774 0.8992

USD Index0.68% 81.18 80.63


5/31

AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIE

Commodities Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Gold 0.72% 1,258.00$ 1,249.00$

Nymex Crude 1.31% 94.11$ 92.89$

Copper -0.59% 3.38$ 3.40$

Bitcoin -0.11% 945.00$ 946.00$

10 year treasuries -1.40% 2.82% 2.86%


6/31

THIS WEEKFLATION, THE IN OR THE DE


7/31

WINNERS

US dollaris this another false dawn though?

Euro bears

Aussie Dollar Bears

Gold Bulls againits not dead YET

Mining SharesCiti has gone bullish


8/31

LOSERS

The global economyfalling inflation bothers me greatly

Central Bank credibilityDraghi again :s

Earnings reports looking a bit disappointingis the good news priced in?

Thai and Ukraine citizens

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

Mar- 12 Jun- 12 Sep -12 Dec -12 M ar -13

Citi Economic Surpris

Citi Economic Surpris

Citi Eco Surprise EU

Source: FARM, Bloomberg w


9/31

STUPID

NOT AWARDED THIS WEEK.


10/31

FLATION, THE IN OR THE DEWHERE ARE WE HEADED?


11/31

EUROPEAN INFLATION SLIPPING AW


12/31

EUROPEAN INFLATION SLIPPING AW


13/31

EUROPE AND JAPAN


14/31

US INFLATION


15/31

WHATS IT MEAN?

IF LIKE ME YOU BELIEVE INFLATION IS A RESULT OF AGGREGATE DEMAND THIS TREND IS A WO

SIGN FOR THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK

WATCH THE PRICE OF CRUDE AND THE STATE OF THE US SHALE OIL MARKET

BUT

IF EMPLOYMENT LEVELS IN EUROPE, PARTICULARLY, STAY WERE THEY ARE DEFLATION SEEMS A

CERTAIN


16/31

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK


17/31

USD INDEXFINALLY?


18/31

EUROUPTREND IN A DOWNTREND


19/31

EURO YENROLLING OVER


20/31

AUSSIE DOLLARSUPPORT NEAR

The dow

but leav

for react


21/31

S&PDaily Charts

Daily

Octob

intac


22/31

IF STOCKS ARE LEAD INDICATORS

THEN

ON IN

SHAN

ARE D


23/31

NIKKEI - GONSKI

Right on support

Last WeekThis We


24/31

YENBREAK AND RETEST

This WeLast Week


25/31

GOLDAlmost there


26/31

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWSREVERSIFICATION STILL THE DRIVING FORCE


27/31

MONEY STILL FLOWING TO DEVELOPED MAR


28/31

ASIA STILL SEEING OUTFLOWS


29/31

BUTJAPAN IS GAINING FUNDSUSDJPY Pressure?


30/31

A QUICK TOUR AROUND ASIA

China is building its second aircraft carrierwatch this space andthe territorial disputes

China announced record high FX reserves (3820BN last weekwhich will continue to put upward pressure on the RMB

Singapore exports finished 2013 up 9.2% month on month

Thailand is still undergoing a serious political dislocation .


31/31

WEEK AHEADUS DATA

Chinese GDP at the end of todays show will set the week up but German ZEW survey to

night is important as well. .

Otherwise its a fairly quiet week with Chicago Fed National activity index and the usu

jobless claims in the US the main datapoints.

In Australia CPI data is out Wednesday but after last weeks poor employment dta thisless significance than usual .

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20140120 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia