8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK

WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETSWHO WON, WHO LOST

CRIMEA, UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND UNCERTAINTY

A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSI

KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Dow -2.35% 16,066 16,453

S&P -1.97% 1,841 1,878

FTSE -2.76% 6,528 6,713

Nikkei -6.19% 14,328 15,274

Shanghai -2.62% 2,004 2,058

ASX 200 -2.49% 5,326 5,462

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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AROUND THE GROUNDSGLOBAL F

Global FX Weekly Change This Week Last Week

EURUSD 0.25% 1.3908 1.3874

USDJPY -1.81% 101.30 103.17

GBPUSD -0.48% 1.6639 1.6719

AUDUSD -0.38% 0.9019 0.9053

USD Index-0.35% 79.42 79.70

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIE

Commodities Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Gold 3.69% 1,388.12$ 1,338.74$

Nymex Crude -3.29% 99.08$ 102.45$

Copper -4.76% 3.00$ 3.15$

10 yr Treasuries -5.02% 2.65% 2.79%

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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THIS WEEKGROWTH IN CHINA AND CRIMEA WEIGH ON MARKETS

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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THE WEEK THAT WAS

WINNERS

Gold Bulls

Australian workersthough a bit of dodgy

numbers played a role

Chinareforms underway

US stock buyer/holdersno crash yet

LOSERS

Chinese growthreforms impact

Punters in the DAX

Chinese RMB specs

Aussie dollar bearsagain

EuropeDraghi and the Euro in de

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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UKRAINEITS THE YELLOW AND BROWN STRIPS PUTIN MIGH

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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MINSKY & GAME THEORY APPROAC

Putin IS emphatically play a game of Chickenhow far can he push the west.

Minsky tells us that stability leads to instability.

Game theory says that the period of trust in relationships and global peace is can be

undermined by Georgia, Syria, Egypt, The Arab Spring and so leading to more of the sa

The end game is not clear and the DAX reaction seems more rational than the Euros

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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S&P 500 WEEKLY

WHAT A MARKETMAYBE GRAVITY WILL WIN

AN OSCAR BUT THE S&P IS DEFYING IT

THE BOUNCE OF THE TOP OF THE TREND LINE

HAS BEEN PHENOMENAL

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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EUROGRAVITY?

EURO CONTINUES TO BREAK HIGHER

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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AUSSIE DOLLARWEEKLY

STILL RANGE BOUND

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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NIKKEIFOUNDSUPPORT

MESSY AGAIN

Dragged higher by the USDJPY

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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YENROLLING OVER?AH NOPE, BEARS POLL

AXED

100 NOW THE BIG LEVEL TO WATCH

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A BIG BREAK IF IT L ASTS

A DAY OR TWO

97 THE TARGET

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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GOLDDOH!

RISING TOWARD 1425

8/12/2019 20140317 - BTFD Monday Morning Tour

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WEEK AHEADBIG IN OZ NOT SO OFFSH

Crimean Standoff and referendum on secession

In OZ we have NAB Business and Westpac Consumer Surveys along with Employment

Global industrial production data across a host of countries

US and Chinese retail sales probably key data points for the week