2016 러시아리포트 - 한국외국어대학교 러시아연구소 · 2017-10-27 · 편집인 장세호 (한국외대 러시아연구소 hk연구교수) 기획처 한국외대

2 0 1 6RUSSIAREPORT

Issues & Analysis

( HK)

2017 2 3

()

ISBN 978-89-97902-23-1 93340

Issues & Analysis

2009 () (NRF-362-2009-1-B00005).

2016 RUSSIA REPORT

3

2016 1 . .

RUSSIA REPORT . , 1 12 2017 80 . 6 2016 2017 . , . . , , , , ,

2016 2017 ., 2016

. ,

4 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis

. , 7 . 2017 2018 . , 4 . , 2016 2 ()

. 2016 , , . 2017 . , , . , 2016

. , . , . , . , 2014 .

5

. 2017 , . , 2016 ,

, . 2011~2020 , , . 2017 . /NATO . , 2016

. 4, 5 , (THAAD) . , , . 2017 , , () , . , 2016 120


, 2015 , , 25 , , . , . 2017 100 . , . 2016 RUSSIA REPORT

, , , , , . , 12 . RUSSIA REPORT

, .

2017 1 31

() () 9

3

(Muddling through) 41

87

115

() 147

169

1 : 2016 , 205

2 : 2016 : , : 213

Part I

Part II

Part III

Part IV

Part V

Part VI

PAR

T I

() () 9

I.

2016 2011 , .

- 7 , .

- , 2018 3 .

- 2016

() ()

( HK)


, .

2016 7 . - 2016 2011 , 2014

, .

- 2/3 .

- , .

- , 3 4 .

2016 .

- ( ) ( ) , ( ) ( ) 1 ,

PAR

T I

() () 11

( ) . - 2016 2018

, , , .

2016, . .

- ,

(), . , ( ) (

) . , .

2016 ( ( )) (), .

2016 12 1 .

- , ,


, , 9 14 .

- , , () () .

- , , , 2018 3 .

2016 2017 .

- 2016 , , , / .

II. 9 18

1. 7

2016 3 9 18() .

2016 2003 13

PAR

T I

() () 13

. - 450

225 .

- , (1) .

- (225) 5% .

, (legal threshold) 5%, 2011 7% 2% .

14, 2011 7 2 .

- (),

( ), ( ), ( ), (), ( ), (),

(), ( ), ( ), (), (), ( ), ( ).

, 7 47.88% 6


. - , 225 5%

4. 54.20% 1

(13.34%), (13.14%), (6.22%) . 140, 35, 34, 16 .

- , 225 6. 203 , 7, 5, 1 . , 1 .

- , 450 76.2% 343 , 9.3% 42, 8.7% 39, 5.1% 23, 0.2% 1, 1 .

2. 7

(C r i me a n consensus) .

- 2 , .

-

PAR

T I

() () 15

.

- (225) 90% 203 .

- .

- , () , .

3 , .

- ( ) , , , .

- 2 , 2 .

, 10 ( ) - , ( ) -


. .

- 2011 , 7 , , . .

- , ( ) , CCTV , , , , 5 .

.

- . .

- , 3 4 .

- , .

PAR

T I

() () 17

III.

1. 2

( ) .

- () .

- , , , .

2. 3

( ) .

- 15 ( ) 9 .

.

- ( ) , , , .


- .

- .

3. 4

( ) .

- 1994 .

- .

- , .

( ) .

- 6 () .

4. 7

7 , ,

PAR

T I

() () 19

, . - 9 8

. 85 .

( ) ( ) .

- ( ) .

-

( ) . 70 10 , .

( ) .

- ( ) .

( ) .

- . - ,

400,000 . - (

) .


( ) .

- , () .

- , .

- ( ) .

5. 8

2011 12 ( ) , .

- ( ) .

( ) , .

- 2012 .

- () , .

- 10

PAR

T I

() () 21

, ( ) .

6. 9

( ) .

- () 14 , .

- ? .

- , , .

- () ( ) .

- ( ) 2016 , .

, .


( ) . - , 10

() 1 .

7. 10

( ) () 1 ( ) .

- 1 () ( ) .

() . - 2007

( ) .

8. 11

11 -(-) , 1 4 () .

( )

PAR

T I

() () 23

. - 2

. -

. - 34

( ) .

IV.

2016 500 , .

6 24 ( ) ( ) () .

- , , 1, 6 .

- , .

- , .


- .

- , , , .

- .

- , , .

- , .

- 14 . 6 2016 .

No. 374- , 6 2016 . No. 375- - .

PAR

T I

() () 25

2016 12 NGO . - 2017 1 1 NGO

2 .

- 2015 12 NGO .

- 1 .

- 10 . , , , , .

- , 14 NGO , 90 .

12.01.1996 N 7- ( , 2016) 6 .

2017~2019 . - 2014

.

19.12.2016 N 415- 2017 2018 2019 .


40 . 2013~14 91~93 .

2016 . - 1 2016 7 1 7,500 . - 2 2017 7 1 7,800 .

19. 06. 2000 N 82- ( , 2016).

. - 2016 4

. -

. - 2017 1 1

, .

03. 07. 2016 N 237- ( , 2016).

12 21 , .

- , , .

PAR

T I

() () 27

2 19 , .

- , .

V.

2016 12 1 , , , , .

- , , .

, .

, , .

, , 100


. -

, .

, , , .

- .

- . , , .

- , NGO .

, , 2 GDP .

- , () , .

PAR

T I

() () 29

- , .

2019~2020, 2017~2025 , IT () . .

.

- .

- , .

- CIS .

- , , .

- , , ,


, .

- , , .

VI.

1.

( ,

) . -

, , .

- 30 .

- ( ).

-

PAR

T I

() () 31

. - , ,

. -

.

2.

1 .

( ) 2000 ( ) .

- 2001 (Henry Kissinger), (Jacob Rothschild) .

- 2014 , 2016 11 13 .

- .

-


, 1 .

() .

- 2016 - ( - ), ( ) .

- 12 ( ) .

() .

: - 2016 http://rusrand.ru/analytics/socialnye-nastroeniya--itogi-2016-goda

[1] 1~2 , ?

PAR

T I

() () 33

- .

.

- ( ) .

- ( ) .

2015 11 2016 10 .

3.

, . . .

- .

, () . , .


. . -

! . - ,

.

VII. : 2016

2017 2018 4 .

- , 2018 3 .

- , 1 .

- (2016 12 18 ) 85.8% .

- 2018 3 .

- 2008~2012 , 2012~2018 3 .

- 2008 1~2 , ,

PAR

T I

() () 35

. -

, 3 , .

- , 4 .

- 2017 2018 4 .

2017 , 2016 .

- 3 .

- , , EU , .

- .

- 2017 .


.

- 3 .

- .

- 2016 12 23 (/) . , 58% .

15%, 7%, 6%, 2%, 3%, 2% .

- , .

- , 2018 .

- , 2017~2025 , , .

, , .

PAR

T I

() () 37

- 2018 .

- . . , 7 .

- 2017 (), (, ) .

- , , 7 .

- . .

- 2016 . .

- .

- 2018 .

- , 4


. -

.

2017 100 .

- 12 ( ()) 100 .

- , ( ), ( ), ( ) .

- 100 , ( ) .

- 2016 12 1 .

- 100 , . .

- , 100

PAR

T I

() () 39

, , .

. - 2016

. -

! . - 2017 .

.

PAR

T II


I. 2016

2016 2 (-)

(muddling through) .

(IMF), (WB) 2015 3.7% (-) 1) 2016 0.6% 2 (-) . 12 -0.5% 9 (-0.6%) 0.1% .2)

1) 2016 12 30 2015 GDP () (-)3.7% (-)3.0% .

2) ,

(Muddling through)

( )


2008 9 7.8% (-) 2009 6 .

5.4% 2015 12.9% 1992 2016 .

2015 (stagation) 2016 .

2016 (IMF), (World Bank) (, ) .

- 2016 IMF -0.6%, World Bank -0.7% , 40 (-)1.0% , 50 2016 0.5% -1.0% .

- 2016 , , 2016 . c. 7.

PAR

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- , .

(2012~2016)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP(%) 3.4 1.3 0.6 -3.7 -0.5

GDP (10 ) 62,218 66,755 71,406 80,804 82,815

(CPI) 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4

3.4 0.4 1.7 -3.4 1.0

2.6 3.2

6.8 -0.2 -3.7 -8.4 -3.7

(%) 4.6 3.2 -0.7 -4.3 -5.8

(%) 8.4 4.8 1.3 -9.0 0.5

() 26,629 29,792 32,495 34,030 35,754*

(%) 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 5.4*

(%) 6.3 3.9 2.7 -10.0 -4.9

(%) 3.5 2.0 1.3 -2.0 -0.5

(10 ) 527.4 523.3 497.8 341.5 279.2

(10 ) 335.8 341.3 308.0 193.0 191.4

(10 ) 71.3 34.8 58.4 69.0 22.2

(. $/bbl) 110.5 107.9 97.6 51.2 41.8

(. /) 31.1 31.8 38.4 61.0 67.1

(%) 3.1 1.8 0.8 -3.2 -0.6

* : 11 : , .


1. 2016

: 0.6% (-) - (World Bank),

(IMF) 2016 -0.5% -0.6% . 2015 (-) 2000 2 .

- 2010 4.5% 6 2000 .

(GDP)

GDP :

(%) (%) GDP :

(%) (%)

2015 2016 2016 2015 2016 2016

GDP -3.0 -0.6 100.0 GDP -3.0 -0.6 100.0

-5.4 -2.4 74.0 , . 3.1 1.1 3.9

- -5.1 -2.0 54.0 1.1 0.8 8.2

- -0.3 -0.3 19.6 -5.1 -0.4 12.7

-3.9 0.6 22.7 , , -1.4 0.0 2.5

- -1.6 -0.8 22.3 -7.4 -3.1 5.2

-1.8 1.3 0.4 -10.0 -2.3 14.2

6.4 1.1 5.3 -1.5 -0.9 6.7

- 1.0 -0.1 26.2 36.6

- 5.4 1.2 20.9 10.1

-2.0

: .

PAR

T II


2016 () () .

- () : 2015 2016

(-) 2015 3.8% 2% .

3.7% 0.8% .

(+) 1.1% . 2015 6.4% .

0.6% .

- () : (, )

1.1%, 0.8% (+) , -0.3%, .

, 10.0% 2016 4.9% (+) .

2014 12 20 8 , 4/4


. , .

2016 (-) - 2015

, , ( ) .

- : , EU .

(- ) - 2016 (GDP) 25%,

(1~11) 38%. (1~9) 55% . 2015 2016 - .

() 2015 - GDP 27%, 43%, 60% .

- 50%, (FDI) 75%,

80% (EU)

PAR

T II


EU . (APEC) .

- : .

- : (OPEC) 2016 .

- ,

- : (ination) .

2. (Ination)

2016 . 2015 (-) 2 2016 (-) 5.4% .


: . - -

. 9 (key rate) 10.5% , . 2016 ( . M1) 3.7% , 2015 48 6,669 2016 48 7,602 (-) .

- .

- . 5.4% (2015 10.2%) . 14.0% 5.5% . 6.5% 2015 2016 ( ) .

2017 5.0% . 6.2% 2012~2013(5.0%~5.5%) .

PAR

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2016 2015 (stagnation) (inflation) (stagflation) .

1) (misery index) 2016

GDP

() , . (Arthur Okun) , . .

( %)


2015~2016 20(G20) 3 .

20(G20) (misery index)

(A) (B)

(C) (A+B-C) 2015

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

1.69 1.57 6.08 5.71 2.44 2.87 5.32 4.41 9.73 -0.91

10.67 7.25 8.53 11.21 -3.85 -3.27 23.05 21.73 44.77 -1.32

1.30 1.84 6.89 7.04 1.08 1.16 7.11 7.72 14.84 0.61

1.60 2.30 4.05 4.05 6.90 6.59 -1.25 -0.24 -1.49 1.01

0.27 0.00 10.38 9.84 1.27 1.33 9.38 8.51 17.89 -0.87

0.30 1.17 4.63 4.29 1.48 1.75 3.45 3.71 7.16 0.26

5.26 5.29 - - 7.56 7.62 -2.30 -2.33 -4.63 -0.02

3.35 3.41 6.18 5.60 4.79 4.94 4.74 4.08 8.82 -0.66

0.10 -0.57 11.91 11.46 0.76 0.76 11.25 10.13 21.38 -1.12

0.20 -0.14 3.37 3.18 0.54 0.51 3.02 2.54 5.56 -0.49

1.28 1.34 3.64 3.62 2.61 2.72 2.31 2.24 4.55 -0.07

2.13 3.16 4.35 4.05 2.47 2.09 4.02 5.12 9.14 1.10

12.91 5.95 5.58 5.84 -3.73 -0.76 22.21 12.55 34.76 -9.66

2.27 4.02 5.59 5.59 3.49 1.19 4.38 8.42 12.80 4.05

5.23 6.70 25.37 26.32 1.27 0.12 29.33 32.90 62.23 3.58

8.81 9.09 10.28 10.17 3.99 3.28 15.10 15.98 31.09 0.88

0.10 1.50 5.40 4.96 2.25 1.84 3.26 4.63 7.88 1.37

0.74 1.82 5.28 4.90 2.60 1.58 3.42 5.14 8.56 1.72

: IMF World Economic Outlook Database . 2016 .

3 20 2016 12.55 2015 22.21

PAR

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. 2 34.76 (62.23) (44.77) 3 . G20 .

3.

1) :

60%(2015 ) (, , ) 2016 . 2016 41.8 , (51.2) 18.4% . 1,000 2015 225.62 2016 3/4 149.5 .

(1~9 ) 5.5%, 6.1% 2016 (3,415 ) 18.2%, 623 2,792 . 1,930 1,914 16 (0.8%) . 2016 2015 1,485 878 .


(: )

2013 2014 20152016

1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4

1,806 1,889 1,485 222 221 185 250 878

5,218 4,968 3,415 603 678 711 800 2,792

* 3,566 3,316 2,054 352 396 406 444 1,598

3,416 3,079 1,930 381 457 526 551 1,914

-583 -553 -369 -49 -60 -73 -61 -243

-132 -101 -51 -4 -4 -6 -10 -25

-665 -580 -319 -34 -129 -79 -83 -325

-93 -82 -56 -12 -12 -23 -17 -64

334 575 690 123 17 4 78 222

* : , , :

2016 2005 2,400 11 . -7.8% 2009 2,972 . 1,000 2004 836 . 2012 , . . .

PAR

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2) :

2016 690 1/3 222 . 2000 . . 2016 878 . , , .

(2014.01~2016.11)

1,000 , ()


. 2016 154 2015 575 . .

3) :

2016 12 31 3,777 2015 3,855 93 . 3,080 (81.5%), 602 (15.9%) SDR 65 (1.7%), IMF 30 (0.8%) .

2016 11 6 .

10

(2016 11 . : )

1 30,516 (-2,788) 6 3,853 (+169)

2 12,193 (-139) 7 3,850 (+263)

3 6,858 (+790) 8 3,720 (+40)

4 5,383 (-776) 9 3,656 (+91)

5 4,343 (+83) 10 3,611 (+107)

: ( ) 2015 : IMF,

2014 2015

PAR

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2016 , . 82 . () 2014 789.2 56.5 , 2015 23.4 .

2014 3,500 . , , 3,500 .

4.

1)

: - 2016 11

512.3 , 117.3 . 19 6.64 , () 3.4 , 8.36 .

:


- 2016 9 5,194 2015 10 .

- , 2010 6 . 2015 3,500 . 2014 , .

- . 2016 9 504 9.7% . GDP 4.0% . GDP 37% , , , .

- . 2016 11 74% (75%) (95%) .

PAR

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2) :

2016 11 2015 (7 3,076 ) 2,947 7 6,024 . 1 6,080

(: )

2011.12 2012.12 2013.12 2014.12 2015.12 2016.06 2016.09

538,884 636,421 728,864 599,901 518,418 523,906 519,436

- 34,732 54,411 61,743 41,606 30,551 35,984 40,393

- 11,547 15,639 15,963 10,599 11,033 9,818 9,980

- 162,764 201,567 214,394 171,450 131,733 127,734 123,586

- 329,842 364,803 436,764 376,246 345,100 350,369 345,478

:


. GDP(2016 ) 8.8% . 2017 5,856 2020 2 2,130 29% .

2016 11 2 5,490 GDP 3.1% . 85 2 2,084 , 3,404 .

(IMF) Historical Public Debt Database(HPDD) (public debt) GDP 16.4% G20 (5.0%)

PAR

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.3)

(G20) (Public debt to GDP ratio) .

- G7: (105.2%), (248.0%), (71.0%), (89.0%),

(96.1%), (132.7%), (91.5%) - : (73.7%), (16.4%), (69.1%), (42.9%),

(49.8%)

- : (37.9%), (27.3%), (32.9%),

(54.0%), (52.1%), (37.6%), (5.0%)

5.

2016 (scal rule)4) . 2016 . 2016 1~11 - 19.6% . (59.9R/$ 67.3R/$ 12.2% ) (52.6 41.0 22.4%) .

3) IMF, eLibrary Data. Historical Public Debt Database. 2015. http://data.imf.org/?sk=806ED027-520D-497F-9052-63EC199F5E63

4) , , , .


4.7% ( 8.2%, 10.0%) (19.8%) . 2016 1~11 GDP 15.2% 11 4,350 6.1%.

(10%) (7.0%) 1.2% 13 2,230 . 1 7,880 . 2016 GDP 3.7% .

. . .

2013 . GDP 2013 -1.19% 2014 -1.09% -1% 2015 -3.48% 2016 -3.93% . IMF 2016 13 GDP ,

PAR

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, 4 . 2015 2016 .

6.

1) (key rate)

(Key rate) : - . key rate 2013 9

(2016. 1~11)

2016

2015 1~11 2016 1~11

10 %* 10 %* 10 %* (%)

13,369 16.1 12,175 16.8 11,435 15.2 -6.1

- 4,778 5.8 5,411 7.5 4,350 5.8 -19.6

- 8,591 10.4 6,764 9.3 7,085 9.4 4.7

16,403 19.8 13,071 18.0 13,223 17.6 1.2

-3,034 -3.7 -897 -1.2 -1,788 -2.4

3,034 1,788

- 500 396

- 1,200 861

- -700 -465

- -7 98

- 2,541 1,294

%* : GDP(1~11) : .

PAR

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. 2013 9 key rate 1~6/1 (Repo) ( ) .

2014 OPEC 2015 2015 1 17% . 2015 5 . 8 11.0% .

2016 ,


6 14 9 19 2 0.25% 10% .

9 . 2016 2017 1/4~2/4 .

2016 12 .

- G20 13.75%. - . 1

4.35%, 1.50%, (Repo ) 5.75%, 6.50%, 5.25%, 7.0%,

CDS

PAR

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8.0% .5)

2) (CDS)

2016 (sovereign risk) 2015 . 5 (CDS) 2016 179 bp 2015 125bp . . 278bp, 276bp, 214bp 154bp, 154bp, 117bp .6)

5) . " - ", No. 4 (16), 2016. c. 51.

6) , " ", 09 2017 . c.18


3)

2015 5, 2016 2 . 12% 12 10%, 10 (OFZ) 11% 8% .

(MIACR) (1 ) 5 11.06% 11.02% 11 9% 10.02% .

. .

- 1 ( ) 1 8.2% 10 6.01% . 9.79% 8.89% . 25.43% 23.23% , 13.37% 12.07% . 17~18% , 3% . (credit history) . 10% . 11~13% .

PAR

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4) (2016.01.01 ~ 2016.12.31.)

2016 . , , 1 . 1 28.8 1 80 . 1 2, 3 70 . 10 62 .

(MOEX) (US$) 2015 72.8827 2016 12 31 60.6569 16.8%. () 79.6972 63.8111 20% ( ).


- (real exchange rate) 2016 1~11 11.0%, (real effective exchange rate) 13.4% .

.

- (2000 1 ~ 2008 8) - -0.86, (2008 9 ~ 2016 12) -0.72 (-) .

- 2014 1 2016 12 -0.98 (-) . 2014 2014 8 11 .

5)

(MOEX) RTS Index MICEX Index . 2015 RTS MICEX 2016 .

- RTS Index 2015 12 30 757.04 2016 12 30 1152.33 52.2% 2013 3 .

PAR

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(OPEC) .

- MICEX Index 1761.36 2232.72 26.8% .

- RTS Index MICEX Index () .

(RTSI) (2014~2016)

RTS Index 50 2015 3,454.5 2016 5,519.2 2,064.5

(59.8%) , MICEX Index 50 25 3,200 33 6,879 33.0% .


. - 16(2000~2016)

(RTSI) 0.84 .

- (2000 1 ~ 2008 8) (RTSI) 0.91 (+) , 0.82 . 2014 2016 0.89 3 . 50% .

7.

2016 15 65 8,372 2015(8,484 ) 111.4 . 2015 7,270 2016 7,265 5 , 6,839 3 . 462.5 .

2016 (ILO ) 5.9% 2005 . 2014 5.2%

PAR

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0.7%

1 35,754 2015 34,030 5.1% . 0.5% . 2015 -4.3% 2016 -5.8% .

II. 2017

2017 : 2 (-) .

1. 2017

2017 2 (-) . 2015~2016 (, ) .

2017 -


(inflation targeting) , .

, , , .

, (EU) () 7) , , .

2016 11 (OPEC) 2017 (+) .

7) 2015 3 12 3 2015 7% () . . '()' 2015 6.9% () , 2016 6.7% 1990 26 () .

PAR

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2015 2016(e) 2017(f) 2018(f)

GDP %

() -3.0 -0.6 1.1 1.8

(IMF) -3.7 -0.6 1.1 1.2

(WB) -3.7 -0.6 1.5 1.7

OECD -3.7 -0.8 0.8 1.0

EU -3.7 -1.0 0.6 0.8

() -3.7 -0.6 1.2~1.7 2.0~2.5

% ()

() 12.9 5.8 4.5 4.3

12.9 5.8 4.5 4.3

IMF 12.9 5.9 4.9 4.0

% () -10.0 -4.6 2.0 2.7

% () -9.0 0.3 1.7 3.1

% () -4.3 -5.6 1.2 1.8

% () -8.4 -3.7 1.5 2.8

% World Bank -18.7 1.9 6.0 4.9

%(GDP)

IMF -3.5 -3.9 -1.5 -0.8

World Bank -3.5 -4.2 -2.5 -0.5

10 () 341.5 279.0 314.9 344.1

10 () 193.0 186.7 206.6 223.5

%(GDP)

() 5.2 2.6 2.7 2.9

IMF 5.2 3.04 3.5 3.9

World Bank 5.2 2.2 1.8 1.6

10 () -58 -18 -15 -15

% () 59 59 58 58

% () -3.2 -0.6 1.4 2.3

. RUB/US$ () 61.0 67.5 63.3 62.1

US$/bbl* 51.2 41 48 52

* 51.9 43.3 55.2 59.9

* : , Dubai, Brent, West Texas Intermediate 3 . : IMF, World Bank, OECD, .


2017 2016 . .

1) : 2 (+)

2016 11 (OPEC) 8 (turning point) .

2017 . +0.6% +1.5% . 6 2017 1.1% . .

- 8) : 2016 11 48 2017 1.1% . 40 0.6% .

- 9): 2016 11 2017~2018 - 40

8) , - 2017 2018 2019 . 24 2016 .

9) , " - 2017 2018 2019 ", 2016.

PAR

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2017 0.5%~1.0%, 46 1.2%~1.7% .

- (World Bank)10) : 2016 11 2017 1.5% . 2016 , 2016 55.2 .

- (IMF) 2017 1 (The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update) 2017 1.1% . 2016 10 .

- : (OECD) 11 OECD Economic Outlook 0.8%, EU(European Commis-sion) 11 EU Economic Outlook 0.6% .

, (barometer) .

2)

2016 2017

10) World Bank, "Russia Economic Report : The Russian Economy Inches Forward: Will that suce to turn the tide?", No. 36. I November 2016.


. 2017 4% . 2017 4% .

2016 9 0.25% 2017 .

3)

2017 GDP 1.5~2.5% 2016 . (scal rule) .

4)

2016 .

2.0% . 2017 1.7%, 1.2% , 1.5% .

PAR

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13% , 11% 1,000 . GDP 2~3% . .

() 1 67.5 63.3 2014~2016 .

, .

2. 2017

2017 . , , , , .

1)

(1) 2000


(barometer) . 2017 . .

. , , . .

2014 (OPEC) 2016 1 30 . 2015 12 OPEC (OECD) , , .

2016 9 28 (OPEC) 2017 . 2017 () 4 .

2016 43

PAR

T II


2017 55 . , OPEC . 2017 2018 (-) .11)

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