29
Investor Presentation April 2019

2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

Investor

PresentationApril 2019

Page 2: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

22

General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains

historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and

statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial

results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its

entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the

information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s)

management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31,

2018 (MD&A), available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not

entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to

the exclusion of others.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-

looking statements” within the meaning of applicable securities laws.

Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable

guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of

assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some

cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of

forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does

not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”,

“intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state

that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”,

“will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements

that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other

characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-

looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information

are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations,

estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By

their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions,

inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which

contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other

forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual outcomes and results of

these statements will depend on a number of factors including those

matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and

may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference

should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with

securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise

caution in relying upon forward-looking- statements and WFT undertakes

no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements,

whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances

except as required by applicable securities laws.

Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-

IFRS measures, such as EBITDA. Non-IFRS measures do not have a

standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to

be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further

information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the

“Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A.

External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or

statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT

has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate.

Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from

statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or

on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied,

is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness,

accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other

information or opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars,

unless otherwise indicated.

Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm”

mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means

southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this

presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our

most recent Annual Report.

Page 3: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

West Fraser

Overview

Page 4: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

44We Attain Value from 100% of Our Resources

MDF Supply agreements (e.g. pellet plants

BCTMP Pulp NBSK Pulp Bioproducts Heat & Electricity

Sawdust & shavings Chips Bark (fuel)

Plywood & LVL Lumber Reforestation

Sustainably managed

forest lands

Integrated fiber strategy to maximize the value of the log

Page 5: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

55Product & Geographic Diversification

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Lumber PulpPanels

Lumber34 mills

SPF 3.9 Bfbm

SYP 3.2 Bfbm

Total 7.1 Bfbm

Panels7 mills

Pulp & Paper5 mills

Plywood: 860 MMsf3/8”

MDF: 250 MMsf3/4”

LVL: 2.6 MMcf

NBSK: 570 Mtonnes

BCTMP: 690 Mtonnes

Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

2018 Revenue Mix by Business Segment

2018 Revenue Mix by Country

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

ChinaCanada OtherUS

Diversified across multiple end uses

Page 6: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

66Operations Diversification

Strong presence in key lumber producing regions

and forest product markets

Page 7: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

77North American Lumber Capacity

Source: Public filings, Forest Economic Advisors and West Fraser estimates

British Columbia

77%

Alberta12%

US South11%

West Fraser Lumber Capacity 2004 2.8 Billion feet

British Columbia

31%

Alberta24%

US South45%

West Fraser Lumber Capacity 2018 7.1 Billion feet

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Idaho Forest

Tolko

Hampton

Resolute

Sierra Pacific

GP

Interfor

Weyco

Canfor

West Fraser

MMfbm

Top 10 represent

48% of capacity

West Fraser has largest share of a growing market

Page 8: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

88

* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions

Adjusted EBITDA 2018 2017

Lumber $ 1,156 $ 884

Panels 127 113

Pulp & Paper 258 172

Corporate/Other (3) (9)

Total $ 1,538 $ 1,160

EBITDA margin 25.1% 22.6%

2018 2017

Sales $ 6,118 $ 5,134

Cost and Expenses 5,046 4,264

Operating earnings 1,072 870

Finance Expense (37) (31)

Other 37 7

Earnings before Tax $ 1,072 $ 846

Tax provision (262) (250)

Net earnings $ 810 $ 596

Diluted EPS $ 10.62 $ 7.63

Strong pricing resulting in significant earnings growth and cash flow

Page 9: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

99Total liquidity and Debt/EBITDA

$553 $444

$553 $551 $551 $400

$562 $556 $491

$50 $86

$231 $132

$258

$100

$302 $282

$160

$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900

$1,000

Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 Q4/2017 Q1/2018 Q2/2018 Q3/2018 Q4/2018

Undrawn Bank Lines Cash

Total Liquidity

Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 Q4/2017 Q1/2018 Q2/2018 Q3/2018 Q4/2018

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0Debt/EBITDA

Strong Liquidity, Conservative Leverage Profile

Page 10: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1010Capital Investment

Modernization initiatives

Capacity / Production

Grade

Recovery

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2015 2016 2017 2018

Capital Expenditure vs Amortization

Capital Depreciation Percent

$236

$117

$17

Capital Expenditure by type

Profit improvement Maintenance Safety

$284

$16$60

$10

Segment Capital Expenditure

Lumber Panels Pulp and Paper Corporate

Consistent investment in the operations

Page 11: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1111Balanced Capital allocation

Consistently deploying

capital to create value

Capital Expenditure,

43%

Acquisitions, 21%

Buybacks & Dividends, 38%

Debt, Other & Retained, -2%

$1.1B returned to

shareholders

$1.8B Reinvested in the

business

$2,801

$90

$1,199

$602

$110 $942

$100

$42

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Cash fromoperations

CapitalExpenditure

Acquisitions Debt serviceand leverage

Dividends Buybacks Other Retained cashflow

2015 through 2018

Page 12: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1212Share repurchases

Consistently buying back shares, trading liquidity remains robust

Average repurchase price:

2013 $44.60

2014 $51.86

2015 $55.57

2016 $44.06

2017 $68.45

2018 $83.13

2019 $70.75

To date $66.09

As of March 31, 2019

$3$115 $174

$364 $381

$1,057 $1,108

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cumulative investment in repurchases(millions of dollars)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1-19Annualized

Total volume traded (000)

Page 13: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1313West Fraser Total Shareholder Return

Share Value Traded

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2018 2017 2016

WFT CFP IFP

Cdn$ Million

11.3% 11.1%

6.2%5.4%

4.2%

5.7%5.0%

2.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

WestFraser

Dow DAX S&P/TSX FTSE CompetitorA

CompetitorB

CompetitorC

TSR June 2006 to February 2019

Source: TD

✓ Proven ability to generate strong cash flow, even in difficult markets

✓ Consistent, straightforward business plan

✓ Loyal, long-term employee and management base

✓ Conservative financial management coupled with proven ability to

grow strategically

✓ Strong historical shareholder returns

Page 14: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

Market

Overview

Page 15: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1515North America Lumber End Use and Consumption

North America Lumber End Use 2018

Source: FEA

New Residential

29%

Residential Improvements40%

Industrial25%

Non-residential Other6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ion f

t

North America Lumber Consumption

Housing Construction Residential Improvements Industrial/Other

Residential improvements

and industrial demand

are lower volatility

demand drivers

Page 16: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1616

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

$340

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions U.S.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

J F M A M J J A S O N D

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2017 2018 2019

2017: 1,203

2018: 1,250

Repair and renovation growth

continues

Leading indicator of Remodeling ActivityMonthly

$B

4 Q

trM

ovin

g I

mpro

vem

ents

and R

epairs

4 Q

trM

ovin

g r

ate

of

Change

Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet

U.S. Housing Forecast (000) 2019 2020

RBC 1,313 1,335

RISI 1,290 1,330

FEA 1,277 1,386

Mortgage Brokers 1,274 1,320

Wells Fargo 1,270 1,290

NAHB 1,266 1,300

Fannie Mae 1,256 1,288

APA 1,230 1,220

Average 1,272 1,309

50k annual increase in

housing starts

3% growth in repair and renovation

~600Mfbm

increase in

lumber demand

~1,000Mfbm

increase in

lumber demand

Page 17: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1717U.S. Housing Starts

US New Housing construction remains at tempered levels

Page 18: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1818

Source: US Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, West Fraser Forecast

North American Lumber Consumption

Lumber demand growth trending at ~ 2 billion board feet per year

7572

64

51

3943 43

4548

5053

5658 59

6062

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

Bill

ion F

eet

US Consumption Canadian Consumption

Page 19: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

1919Precipitation Fallout

5

Adverse weather one factor tempering demand

Page 20: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2020Demand Conditions Offshore

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

North American Offshore Lumber Exports (Billion BF)

Offshore Exports US Offshore Exports Canada

(1)01234567

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

North American Offshore Lumber Exports less Imports (Billion BF)

Source: WWPA, Stats Canada, Random Lengths

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

US

$/M

fbm

Billio

n B

F

North American Offshore Lumber Imports

NA Imports SPF 2x4 2&btr (R axis)

North America is still a significant net exporter of lumber

Page 21: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2121Chinese Lumber Demand

Source: FEA

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

M c

ub

ic m

ete

rs

North America Russia Europe Other

1 million cubic meters = ~ 295 million board feet

Although price sensitive, China continues to import significant lumber

Page 22: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2222

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2018Q4 2019 Q1

Western Canada Curtailments

Supply conditions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

BC Canada US Total NA

Lumber Supply

2017 2018

Down 5.5%

Down

3.2%

Up 3.3%

Up .3%

Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates

Supply growth challenges

• Equipment cost inflation affecting paybacks leads to cancelations

• Contractor availability and lead times

• Residual markets (new and existing)

• Slower than expected start up schedule

• Temporary curtailments become permanent

Billion fbm MMfbm

Mix of

temporary

and

permanent

Curtailments a headwind to supply growth

Page 23: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2323

Source: FEA, BC Forest Service

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Billi

on

BF

(s

oft

wo

od

lu

mb

er

pro

du

cti

on

)

Mil

lio

n m

3 (

AA

C &

Ha

rve

st)

British Columbia Interior

AAC (m3)

Harvest (m3)

Softwood Lumber Production (BBF)

Log supply

constraints will

create price

pressure

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$/M

3

British Columbia Interior Purchase Log Cost

Annual Allowable Cut on the decline in BC Interior

Pine beetle and fires impacting log supply, leading to higher input costs

Page 24: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2424Share of North American Lumber Production

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Canada West Canada East US South US West

Western Canada a key supply region,

facing fibre cost and availability headwinds

Page 25: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2525North American Lumber Production

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000

Alberta

Eastern Canada

BC

US South

US Other

MMfbm

North America Softwood Lumber ProductionMillions of Board Feet

2005 2018

(25%)

(30%)

(18%)

Growth constrained in several significant lumber producing regions

Page 26: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2626Market Pulp Supply and Demand

• No new major capacity additions 2018 to 2020

• Pulp demand projected to grow 2.3% over next

5 years

• Demand growth driven by tissue and packaging

demand

• Growth will be primarily in Asia

• Conversions of chemical pulp to dissolving pulp

will constrain both softwood & hardwood pulp

supply

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Chemical Pulp Demand (M tonnes)

China Demand % of World Demand (R axis)

Source: PPPC

Chemical PulpBCTMP

Growth in China demand for pulp creates favorable market dynamics

Page 27: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2727West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.

These materials have been prepared by Management of

the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or

disapproved of the contents of these materials. These

materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the

solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or

sale of the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in

which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.

Securities of the Company may not be offered or sold in

the United States absent their prior registration or

qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

Page 28: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

APPENDIX

Page 29: 2016 AGM Presentation - West Fraser · 2019-04-30 · General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains ... SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm Panels 7 mills

2929Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables1 (2018)

Factor Variation Change in pre-tax earnings

Lumber price US$10 (per Mfbm) 90

Plywood price Cdn$10 (per Msf) 8

NBSK price US$10 (per tonne) 7

BCTMP price US$10 (per tonne) 9

U.S. - Canadian $

exchange rate

US$0.01 (per Cdn$) 29

(based on 2018 production - $ millions)

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign

exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of US. Dollar-denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the

amount of the initial US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.