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WWW.NGSA.ORG Dena Wiggins, President and CEO, Natural Gas Supply Association January 21, 2016 U.S. Energy Association “State of the Energy Industry 2016” 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers 10 Topics in 10 Minutes

2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

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Page 1: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

WWW.NGSA.ORG

Dena Wiggins, President and CEO, Natural Gas Supply Association

January 21, 2016

U.S. Energy Association “State of the Energy Industry 2016”

2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers 10 Topics in 10 Minutes

Page 2: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

Represents major producers and suppliers of

domestic natural gas

Promotes benefits of competitive natural gas

markets, resulting in reliable and efficient

transportation and delivery, increased supply and

demand

Celebrated 50th Anniversary in 2015

Who is NGSA?

Page 3: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

1. Good News Story:

Size of U.S. Recoverable Natural Gas Resource

Doubled in Last Decade

Page 4: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth

4

U.S. dry natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Tight gas

Coalbed methane

Other lower 48 onshore

Shale gas and tight oil plays

Alaska Lower 48 offshore

Projections History 2013

billion cubic feet per day

Annual Energy Outlook 2015,

April 14, 2015

Page 5: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

2. Challenging Market But Producers Keep Improving Ability to Produce at Lower Cost

Technological

advances and

efficiencies include

the “walking rig”

Page 6: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

3. LNG Exports: 2016 Marks Launch of New Era

Page 7: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

Mexican exports growing

due to new pipelines,

growing Mexican economy

Maritime: “Emission

Control Areas” make LNG

a potential fit for marine industry

And more: Railroads, fleet vehicles

4. Stealthy Growth in Other Markets

Page 8: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

5. Power Sector Used Natural Gas More Than All Other Fuels for 5 Months in 2015

Page 9: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

15 Expansions

11 Petrochemical

4 Fertilizer

$117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d

51 New Projects

37 Petrochemical

11 Fertilizer

3 Steel

6. Focus on Industrial Demand: Natural Gas Spurring 66 Major Industrial Projects 2015–2020

Data Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, June 2015 Photo courtesy: Chevron U.S.A. Inc., 2015 (Pascagoula)

Page 10: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

7. Clean Power Plan: Impact on Natural Gas Use in Power Sector

Sample scenarios from EIA Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan,

May 2015

1. Many different

scenarios;

gas use

hinges on

varying

factors

2. In most

scenarios,

natural gas

can flourish

Page 11: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

8. Methane Rule: Producers Reduced Methane

Emissions 38% While Increasing Production 33%

Data source: 2014 EPA Inventory of U.S.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2012

Producers

have proven

record of

reducing

methane

emissions

without

prescriptive

measures

Page 12: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

FERC “promotes safe,

reliable, secure, efficient

infrastructure”

9. Infrastructure Hurdles: FERC Faces Unprecedented Environmental Activism

Page 13: 2016 Policy and Market Issues for Natural Gas Suppliers · 4 Fertilizer $117 Billion Investment to Build Increase of 3.9 Bcf/d 51 New Projects Petrochemical 11 Fertilizer 3 Steel

10. Inclusion of “Upstream Impacts” for Pipeline Certificate Applications