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2015 FMA Conference

CVFPP Overview- Mike Mierzwa, DWR

Basin-wide Feasibility Study Planning Context- Eric Tsai, DWR

Technical Tools/Methodologies- Rummy Sandhu & David Arrate, DWR

Climate Change Considerations- Amy Bindra, DWR

Ecosystem Benefits Analysis- Mary Jimenez, DWR

Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits- Steve Hatchett, CH2M Hill

Next Steps and Key Messages- Mary Jimenez, DWR

2017 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update: Overview

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2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan

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Outcome Based Planning

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CVFPP Goals Intended OutcomesPrimary Goal: Improve flood risk management

Reduce the chance of flooding

Reduce damages once flooding occurs

Improve public safety, preparedness, and emergency response

Supporting Goals

Improve Operations and Maintenance

Promote Ecosystem Functions

Promote Multi-benefit Projects

Improve Institutional Support

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One Process, Many Activities

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GOAL: Supporting comprehensive investments to better manage flood waters

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Basin-Wide Feasibility Studies Planning Context

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2012 CVFPP State Systemwide Investment Approach

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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Purpose & Scope

• Refine scale/location of flood system elements; integrate environmental conservation

• Evaluate systemwide hydraulic effects, and ecosystem restoration opportunities

• Inform 2017 CVFPP update

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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Goals

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• Primary Goal• Improve Flood Risk

Management• Supporting Goals

• Promote Ecosystem Functions

• Improve Operations and Maintenance

• Promote Multi-Benefit Projects

Balanced

Reasonable

Cost-efficient

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Yolo Bypass Options

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Basin-Wide Technical AnalysisTools & Methodology

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Cost Estimates

Water Quality

Commercial Fisheries

Regional EconomicsEcosystem

Water Supply

Recreation Open/Space

Technical Analysis: Tools & Methodology

Economic &Life RiskAnalysis

(HEC-FDA)

Riverine Hydraulics(HEC-RAS)

Historical Data

(CDEC/ USGS)

Climate Change

(VIC)

Floodplain Hydraulics

(FLO2D)

Flood HydrologyAnalysis (CVHS)

Delta Hydraulics

(RMA2)

Reservoir Flow

(HEC-ResSim)

Local Flow(HEC-HMS)

Geotechnical Evaluation

(ULE/NULE)

Navigation

Loss of Services

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Flood Risk Analysis of Key Locations

Reg

ulat

ed F

low

Cha

nnel

Sta

ge

Reg

ulat

ed S

tage

Impact Area

Index Point

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System-wide Tools Applications

HEC-HMS/Bulletin 17B(CVHS)

CVHS HEC-ResSimCVFED HEC-RAS

CVFED HEC-RASRMA2

CVFED FLO-2DHEC-RAS

ULE/NULE

Updated Structure Inventory, Multiple flooding sources

HEC-FDA

1

23

4

5

68

7

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Sacramento BWFS: What We’ve Learned

Sacramento Weir and Bypass Expansions

• Our flood system needs to be modernized to meet today’s needs and be resilient to future changes.

• Sacramento and Fremont Weir expansions can provide significant cross-regional stage reduction.

• Yolo Bypass setbacks provide varying levels of flood and ecosystem benefits.

Fremont Weir Expansions

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San Joaquin BWFS: Stage Frequency in the Delta

• Tidal Influenced• Elements Affected

− Paradise Cut− RD17 − Stockton/Delta

Front

Total Latitude Flow Frequency

• RMA2 Bay-Delta Model

• Dynamic Tide Stage Boundaries

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Firebaugh Small Community

Improvements• Flood Risk

Improvement

• Ecosystem Benefits

• Hydraulic Impacts

San Joaquin BWFS: Example Multi-Objective Element

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Climate Change Considerations

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Hydrologic Variability Considerations

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How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes

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Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends

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How Sea Level Rise Influences System Outflow

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Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise in CaliforniaLow Mean High

2030 4.3 cm 14.4 cm 29.7 cm2050 12.3 cm 28.0 cm 60.8 cm2062* 18.5 cm

(0.61 ft.)38.8 cm(1.27 ft.)

83.1 cm(2.73 ft.)

2100 42.4 cm 91.9 cm 166.4 cm

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• Contributes to rise in extreme weather events

• Expected to generate more extreme floods, more seasonal rain, less snow and rising sea levels

• Increases stress on the system

Climate Change Impacts

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• Multi-phased approach − Phase 1 – included in 2012 plan− Phase 2a – 2007 global climate models, 112

independent climate projections− Phase 2b – More robust analysis and integration; 2013

global climate models, 200 independent climate projections

• Uses latest science and data• Integrates existing hydrologic and flood risk

approaches• Consistent with State’s climate change policies

Climate Change Approach for 2017 CVFPP

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Increasing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

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How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes

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Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends

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45ºN

35ºN

25ºN

170ºE140ºE 160ºW 130ºW 100ºW

Atmospheric River

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Temperature

Precipitation

General Circulation Model

Atmospheric River

Watershed

Risk Analysis and Flood Management Planning

CVFPP Climate Change Approach• Linking atmospheric processes, precipitation and temperature fields, and watershed

conditions to inform changes in flood risk

Stream flow

Adjusted Unregulated Flow Frequency Curves

Historical

Projected

HistoricalProjected

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Ecosystem Benefits Analysis for Multi-Objective Flood Planning

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Today’s Discussion

Ecosystem Integration into the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan- Overview of the CVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy- Development of Multi-Benefit Opportunities

BWFS Ecosystem Benefits Analyses- Overview of Purpose and Approach

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Ecosystem Integration into the CVFPPCVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy

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Multi-Benefit Project Development

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• The Draft Conservation Strategy guided development of ecosystem restoration concepts for flood system elements currently under consideration

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Fremont Weir

Elkhorn Basin

Upper Yolo Bypass Ecosystem Integration Concept

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• Conservation Strategy guided development of restoration concepts

• Multiple restoration concepts developed to show range of options

• Ongoing collaboration with stakeholders

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• Opportunities to expand riparian and shaded riverine aquatic (SRA) habitat

• Would provide benefits to target fish and bird species

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• Opportunities to work with local interests to expand floodplain inundation

• Would be in coordination with agricultural practices

• Would provide local and downstream benefits to target fish species

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• Opportunities to reduce existing fish passage barriers and expand fish passage in and out of the bypass

• Would provide benefits to adult and juvenile fish species

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Ecosystem Benefits Analyses

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• Informs decision making and understanding of tradeoffs

• Informs subsequent project implementation • Quantifies ecosystem values in a way that helps

track progress in meeting Conservation Strategy goals

• Informs discussions with resource agencies on permitting for projects and long-term O&M

• Develops tools that allow consistent evaluation of projects in regional context and meet USACE requirements

Purpose of Ecosystem Benefits Analyses

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• Based on a modified USACE Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) methodology

• Uses the ecosystem features identified in the restoration concepts as the basis for the benefits analyses - as compared to existing conditions

• Coordinated models were developed: − An Ecosystem Model that addresses habitat structure

and function− Species Models that address target species and habitat

connectivity

Ecosystem Benefits Approach

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Ecosystem Benefits – Example Results

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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

1

2

3

4

Fully Functional Acre Equivalents

Con

figur

atio

n

Channel Bank

Riparian

Marsh-Other Wetland

Net Benefits for HabitatsBenefits for Species (Ex: Swainson’s Hawk)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3 Concept 4 Concept 5 Concept 6

Valu

e W

eigh

ted

Acr

es

System Element

Existing

Configuration 1

Configuration 2

Configuration 3

Configuration 4

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Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits of the CVFPP

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Ecosystem restoration

CVFPP Seeks to Provide a Range of Benefits

Flood risk management

Water supply and water quality

Hydropower

Commercial fisheries

Recreation and open space

Navigation

Social and regional economic effects

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• Hedonic demand approach

−Existing study of protected wildlife areas near cities

−Evaluated the effect of open space proximity to property value

−Adjusted for other property features

• California property value 3-6% higher if near protected wildlife area (all else equal)

Open space Enhances Property Value

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Loss of Transportation Service

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• Linked California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) network to road centerline geolocations.

• Overlaid flood inundation areas and depths on road network

• Assessed road operations and closures

• Used CSTDM to estimate traffic volumes, routes, travel times

• Estimated costs of travel delays, re-routing

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CSTDM Road Network- Central Valley Portion

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Linked Analysis Will Provide New Way of Assessing Transportation Service Benefits

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Where We’re GoingNext Steps and Key Messages

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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Next Steps

• Evaluation and comparison of BWFS options

• Continued stakeholder engagement

• Formulation of State-Preferred Plan

• Draft BWFS by End of 2015

• Further coordination/refinement through 2017 CVFPP

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Outcome-Based Planning for 2017 CVFPP Update

• Continued collaboration with stakeholders and parallel planning efforts (e.g., RFMP Phase 2)

• Evaluation of flood O&M requirements for existing and future flood system and ecosystem features

• Documentation of monitoring/tracking value of investments

CVFPP Next Steps

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• DWR is using the latest tools, models and methodologies to evaluate and compare various planning options

• Multiple planning efforts at different scales are being conducted to support the 2017 CVFPP

• DWR is conducting systemwide, multi-objective planning studies in two river basins to achieve resiliency and a wide range of public values

Key Messages

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