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2017 Opportunities & Risks
Oren Bar On
February 6, 2017
Page 2
Agenda
► US Election Impact
► Tax
► Immigration
► Health Sector
► Ecosystem : What happened in 2016?
► Five key themes for M&A in 2017
► Why 2017 is excellent year to invest?
Page 4
US Election Impact
► Fiscal policy - tax reduction and increased investment in infrastructure
► What is the impact on technology companies?
Page 5
Tax reform: overall state of play and proposals
► Replace corporate income tax with 20%
► Reduced individual tax rates: 12%, 25%, 33%
► Mandatory tax on accumulated foreign earnings
► NOLs could be carried forward indefinitely
► One significant difference - House Blueprint is intended to be revenue
neutral while Trump Plan has been scored as losing trillions of dollars.
Republican
House
Reason for
change
► Income tax rate seen are not globally competitive
► International tax system compels profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions and erodes US
tax base. Low US rate may make the US competitive as an IP or Principal company
► Motivate economic growth and job creation
Trump
► 15% business income rate
► 10% mandatory tax on accumulated foreign earnings
► Individual: 12%, 25%, and 33% rates; deductions capped at $100,000/$200,000
► Carried interest would be taxed as ordinary income
Page 6
Trump Tax: highlights – Impact on any tax payerTop corporate tax rate 15%
Taxation of future foreign earnings In 2015, proposed immediate worldwide taxation, repeal of deferral
Taxation of accumulated foreign
earnings
10% mandatory tax
Cost recovery Expensing for manufacturers
Interest Manufacturers who elect to expense lose the deductibility of interest
Other business provisions Most eliminated, except for R&D Credit
Individual tax rates 12%, 25%, 33%
Capital gains - Existing capital gains rate structure (maximum rate of 20 percent)
- 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) repealed
Dividends Existing rates but NIIT repealed
Carried interest Ordinary income
Estate tax-now 40%, $5.43m
exempt
Repealed, but capital gains held until death will be subject to tax, with the
first $10 million tax-free
NOL Carried Indefinitely
Itemized deductions Capped at $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married filers
Border Tax A tax exemption for exports would Incentive outbound cloud / digital
transactions from US developed IP
Timing There is a realistic possibility that tax reform could get passed and
effectuated in 2017 – making planning very time sensitive for December
31st and certain fiscal year filings
Page 7
US Election Impact
► Deregulation primarily in the financial, energy, and pharmaceutical
fields and more regulation on cyber security
► IPO’s, increase public investment in Cyber
► Trade policy- significant risk on the global supply chain of tech
companies
► Chinese products, India as a service center, Cost + centers
► Immigration policy- impact on the demand: inflation on the one hand
and corporates profits on the other
► The ability to obtain H-1B visas for software engineers
Page 8
Page 9
US election Impact
► Monetary policy- interest will go up, but budget blow up..
► Currency War - ?
► “Make America great again” – what does it mean for
Autonomous cars, HC system.
Page 10
US Election Impact on Health Sector
► The health care industry invested million of dollars to be prepare for
business under Affordable Care Act.
► A Repeal of ACA would lead to 22 millions of people losing insurance
which will increase uncompensated care and bad debt to pre-ACA
level.
► Hospitals will need to reduce cost and will lower healthcare spending
► After election large healthcare facilities and healthcare shares went
down.
► What does it mean for Israeli companies that their clients and targeted
clients are hospitals and healthcare providers?
Page 11
So what happened in 2016?
Page 12
Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016
► Chinese
Page 13
“Start-up fundraising in Silicon Valley wouldn’t function without Chinese money. It has changed the landscape.”
Chris Nicholson CEO, skymind.io
Page 15
Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016
► Chinese
► "Tourism” Investment
► Everything goes digital – everything moves towards industries
Page 16
Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016
► Chinese
► "Tourism” Investment
► Everything goes digital – everything moves towards
industries
► Vertical eco-system,
New platforms: Autonomous car, AR,VR, AI,
Robots, IoT, Big data, Wearables, Bots
Page 17
Dramatic changes in the transportation market
► Gett: $300m from VW + $100m in debt
► Via: $100m
► Juno: a key player in NY
► Additional rounds of investments: UBER, DIDI, Lyft
► Mobileye: new partnerships: Delphi, Nissan, intel+BMW
► Ford: First acquisition in Israel, SAPIS
► GM: new R&D center in Israel
► Israel as key player in auto-tech-cyber: Karamba
Page 19
Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016
► Chinese
► "Tourism” Investment
► Digital transformation for non-tech companies
► Vertical eco-system, New platforms: Autonomous car, AR,VR, AI,
Robots, IoT, Big data, Wearables, Bots
► Interest rates
Page 20
Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016
► The two issues of 2015 still exist:
► Private companies high valuations, to a certain extent also the public ones
► Growth: generally not accompanied by profitability
► Capital market is still closed but seems to be opened soon
Page 21
Ecosystem (cont.)
► New issues:
► New restrictions on China capital outflow
► Buy Back instead of investment in illiquid assets
► Increase of Interest rate
► Increase in political uncertainty – 2017 election year
Page 22
US Venture investments in Q4 2016 decreases
U.S.-based companies raised
$10.17 billion in 862 equity
deals in 4Q 2016, a decrease
of 16.31% and 11.95% in terms
of capital raised and deal flow
when compared to the previous
quarter.
In 4Q 2016 the number of deals
and total capital invested
decreased by 16.31% and
48.33%, respectively,
compared to the same period
the previous year.
Equity Financings into U.S. —
Based, VC-backed Companies (2013–2016)
4Q'13
1Q'14
2Q'14
3Q'14
4Q'14
1Q'15
2Q'15
3Q'15
4Q'15
1Q'16
2Q'16
3Q'16
4Q'16
Amount Raised ($B) $9.84$12.9$16.0$11.3$18.5$16.9$20.3$20.3$19.6$13.4$16.6$12.1$10.1
Number of Deals 106910441108104010511043115010211030 960 917 979 862
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
Page 23
Equity financing into US based VC backed companies by round class (2013-2016)
4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16
Later $5.19 $7.85 $10.34 $6.13 $12.08 $10.66 $12.14 $12.82 $13.37 $8.27 $7.42 $7.08 $4.78
Second $1.95 $2.11 $2.72 $1.96 $2.96 $3.08 $3.52 $3.05 $2.91 $2.11 $2.53 $2.25 $2.17
First $2.16 $1.84 $2.47 $2.20 $2.78 $2.22 $2.61 $2.82 $2.77 $2.33 $2.31 $1.90 $2.02
Seed $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.13 $0.08 $0.07 $0.10 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 $0.03 $0.08 $0.06
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
Amount Raised ($B)
Page 24
US VC backed M&As (2013-2016)
118 M&As of venture-backed
companies in the U.S. garnered
$12.15 billion during 4Q 2016.
► Compared to 3Q 2016, when
a total of 151 transactions
accumulated $25.48 billion,
the number of deals
decreased 22% along with a
52% decline in amount
raised.
► The largest M&A deal of the
quarter was
Krux Digital Inc., which was
acquired by Salesforce.com
for $700 million.
U.S. VC-backed M&A Activity (2013 - 2016)
4Q'13
1Q'14
2Q'14
3Q'14
4Q'14
1Q'15
2Q'15
3Q'15
4Q'15
1Q'16
2Q'16
3Q'16
4Q'16
Amount Paid ($B) $15 $18 $13 $21 $35 $12 $11 $16 $17 $21 $23 $25 $12
Number of M&As 153 142 145 155 132 144 108 145 134 144 148 151 118
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Private M&A Above $50M
Number
Venture
Backed
M&A
Total Amount
$M
Ave Time
To Exits
Venture
Backed
Ave Time
To Exits
2014 16 9 3,449 5.5 6.3
2015 26 21 3,630 7.2 7.5
2016 18 11 2,702 7.8 6.3
1.1
1.92.1
2.6
2.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Israel VC backed investment ($B)
$2.9b
$3.9b
$2.1b
$3.4b
$2b
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
amount paid (deals above $10m)
Israel VC backed M&A
Page 26
What are the new opportunities?
And others…
The changing in Israeli High-Tech Funding Landscape 2016
Equity Partners 3i
15% Israeli
Less than 1B$ is a failure
Expensive ticket to get in, Low supply
18159
American entrepreneurs continue to look for unicorns:1 in 5 founders says they’re rising a unicorns
- A lot of companies at the EXTENDED seed.
- Old model tries to raise in a changing environmentNew entrance of
small organizations looking for opportunities but some are opportunistic and lack methodology and discipline
B2C16%
Cyber15%
Enterprise software12%
Data Analytics9%
e-Commerce9%
Ad- tech8%
Fintech8%
Cleantech6%
IoT4%
Marketplace3%
Smart City/home3%
DH3%
Automotive2%
Semi1%
Hardware Communication1%
Round A and seed 2016 (103 companies)
And others…
The changing in Israeli High-Tech Funding Landscape 2016
Equity Partners 3i
15% Israeli
Less than 1B$ is a failure
Expensive ticket to get in, Low supply
18159
American entrepreneurs continue to look for unicorns:1 in 5 founders says they’re rising a unicorns
- A lot of companies at the EXTENDED seed.
- Old model tries to raise in a changing environmentNew entrance of
small organizations looking for opportunities but some are opportunistic and lack methodology and discipline
Page 31
Why 2017 is excellent year to invest?
► Investors will hold the upper hand
► Some investors are tired by the high valuation
► Better DNA of companies: Increase in productivity and decrease in
salaries
► Availability of talent
► The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations
order
► New Mega Trend – new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:
VR/AR,AI, Robots, Bots, self driving cars, private spaceflights, Gene
editing, and others
Page 32
New Tech Wave-Doing the same things in much lower cost:
► Truck drivers: 3.5m worldwide; otto+uber
► Diagnosing medical imaging; zebra
► AI will be better in researching case laws
► Low level accountants will be eaten by software
► Stock traders
► AI doctors
► IoT: from 6b to 100b: needs more computing power, better research
Page 33
Five key themes for M&A in 2017
► Money that will be repatriated back from off shore can boost the
M&A
► Capital Markets are expected to be opened again
► Valuation gap to widen
► Alliances offer accelerated path to growth/innovation: digital
disruption prompts new avenues via partnership and joint
ventures, which avoid complexities of full integration
► PE must evolve to deploy dry powder: unused PE capital reached
a record $536B in 2016 (60% in the US).
Page 34
Investors: Steps towards 2017
► Early stage is where you should be short term and long term, BUT
value correctly the pre-emptive
► Expertise in specific sectors- New platforms
► Be part of Vertical eco-systems
► Small funds are in limited competition with the big ones
► More risk but better spread out
► Develop relationships to get best founders
► Look for proven business model for extended seed money. The
opportunities are out there but not as unicorns
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© 2017 Kost Forer Gabbay & Kasierer
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This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice.