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2017 Opportunities & Risks Oren Bar On February 6, 2017

2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

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Page 1: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

2017 Opportunities & Risks

Oren Bar On

February 6, 2017

Page 2: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 2

Agenda

► US Election Impact

► Tax

► Immigration

► Health Sector

► Ecosystem : What happened in 2016?

► Five key themes for M&A in 2017

► Why 2017 is excellent year to invest?

Page 3: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:
Page 4: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 4

US Election Impact

► Fiscal policy - tax reduction and increased investment in infrastructure

► What is the impact on technology companies?

Page 5: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 5

Tax reform: overall state of play and proposals

► Replace corporate income tax with 20%

► Reduced individual tax rates: 12%, 25%, 33%

► Mandatory tax on accumulated foreign earnings

► NOLs could be carried forward indefinitely

► One significant difference - House Blueprint is intended to be revenue

neutral while Trump Plan has been scored as losing trillions of dollars.

Republican

House

Reason for

change

► Income tax rate seen are not globally competitive

► International tax system compels profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions and erodes US

tax base. Low US rate may make the US competitive as an IP or Principal company

► Motivate economic growth and job creation

Trump

► 15% business income rate

► 10% mandatory tax on accumulated foreign earnings

► Individual: 12%, 25%, and 33% rates; deductions capped at $100,000/$200,000

► Carried interest would be taxed as ordinary income

Page 6: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 6

Trump Tax: highlights – Impact on any tax payerTop corporate tax rate 15%

Taxation of future foreign earnings In 2015, proposed immediate worldwide taxation, repeal of deferral

Taxation of accumulated foreign

earnings

10% mandatory tax

Cost recovery Expensing for manufacturers

Interest Manufacturers who elect to expense lose the deductibility of interest

Other business provisions Most eliminated, except for R&D Credit

Individual tax rates 12%, 25%, 33%

Capital gains - Existing capital gains rate structure (maximum rate of 20 percent)

- 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) repealed

Dividends Existing rates but NIIT repealed

Carried interest Ordinary income

Estate tax-now 40%, $5.43m

exempt

Repealed, but capital gains held until death will be subject to tax, with the

first $10 million tax-free

NOL Carried Indefinitely

Itemized deductions Capped at $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married filers

Border Tax A tax exemption for exports would Incentive outbound cloud / digital

transactions from US developed IP

Timing There is a realistic possibility that tax reform could get passed and

effectuated in 2017 – making planning very time sensitive for December

31st and certain fiscal year filings

Page 7: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 7

US Election Impact

► Deregulation primarily in the financial, energy, and pharmaceutical

fields and more regulation on cyber security

► IPO’s, increase public investment in Cyber

► Trade policy- significant risk on the global supply chain of tech

companies

► Chinese products, India as a service center, Cost + centers

► Immigration policy- impact on the demand: inflation on the one hand

and corporates profits on the other

► The ability to obtain H-1B visas for software engineers

Page 8: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 8

Page 9: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 9

US election Impact

► Monetary policy- interest will go up, but budget blow up..

► Currency War - ?

► “Make America great again” – what does it mean for

Autonomous cars, HC system.

Page 10: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 10

US Election Impact on Health Sector

► The health care industry invested million of dollars to be prepare for

business under Affordable Care Act.

► A Repeal of ACA would lead to 22 millions of people losing insurance

which will increase uncompensated care and bad debt to pre-ACA

level.

► Hospitals will need to reduce cost and will lower healthcare spending

► After election large healthcare facilities and healthcare shares went

down.

► What does it mean for Israeli companies that their clients and targeted

clients are hospitals and healthcare providers?

Page 11: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 11

So what happened in 2016?

Page 12: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 12

Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016

► Chinese

Page 13: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 13

“Start-up fundraising in Silicon Valley wouldn’t function without Chinese money. It has changed the landscape.”

Chris Nicholson CEO, skymind.io

Page 14: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:
Page 15: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 15

Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016

► Chinese

► "Tourism” Investment

► Everything goes digital – everything moves towards industries

Page 16: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 16

Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016

► Chinese

► "Tourism” Investment

► Everything goes digital – everything moves towards

industries

► Vertical eco-system,

New platforms: Autonomous car, AR,VR, AI,

Robots, IoT, Big data, Wearables, Bots

Page 17: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 17

Dramatic changes in the transportation market

► Gett: $300m from VW + $100m in debt

► Via: $100m

► Juno: a key player in NY

► Additional rounds of investments: UBER, DIDI, Lyft

► Mobileye: new partnerships: Delphi, Nissan, intel+BMW

► Ford: First acquisition in Israel, SAPIS

► GM: new R&D center in Israel

► Israel as key player in auto-tech-cyber: Karamba

Page 18: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:
Page 19: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 19

Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016

► Chinese

► "Tourism” Investment

► Digital transformation for non-tech companies

► Vertical eco-system, New platforms: Autonomous car, AR,VR, AI,

Robots, IoT, Big data, Wearables, Bots

► Interest rates

Page 20: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 20

Winter is coming? The winter was moderate in 2016

► The two issues of 2015 still exist:

► Private companies high valuations, to a certain extent also the public ones

► Growth: generally not accompanied by profitability

► Capital market is still closed but seems to be opened soon

Page 21: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 21

Ecosystem (cont.)

► New issues:

► New restrictions on China capital outflow

► Buy Back instead of investment in illiquid assets

► Increase of Interest rate

► Increase in political uncertainty – 2017 election year

Page 22: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 22

US Venture investments in Q4 2016 decreases

U.S.-based companies raised

$10.17 billion in 862 equity

deals in 4Q 2016, a decrease

of 16.31% and 11.95% in terms

of capital raised and deal flow

when compared to the previous

quarter.

In 4Q 2016 the number of deals

and total capital invested

decreased by 16.31% and

48.33%, respectively,

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Equity Financings into U.S. —

Based, VC-backed Companies (2013–2016)

4Q'13

1Q'14

2Q'14

3Q'14

4Q'14

1Q'15

2Q'15

3Q'15

4Q'15

1Q'16

2Q'16

3Q'16

4Q'16

Amount Raised ($B) $9.84$12.9$16.0$11.3$18.5$16.9$20.3$20.3$19.6$13.4$16.6$12.1$10.1

Number of Deals 106910441108104010511043115010211030 960 917 979 862

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

Page 23: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 23

Equity financing into US based VC backed companies by round class (2013-2016)

4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16

Later $5.19 $7.85 $10.34 $6.13 $12.08 $10.66 $12.14 $12.82 $13.37 $8.27 $7.42 $7.08 $4.78

Second $1.95 $2.11 $2.72 $1.96 $2.96 $3.08 $3.52 $3.05 $2.91 $2.11 $2.53 $2.25 $2.17

First $2.16 $1.84 $2.47 $2.20 $2.78 $2.22 $2.61 $2.82 $2.77 $2.33 $2.31 $1.90 $2.02

Seed $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.13 $0.08 $0.07 $0.10 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 $0.03 $0.08 $0.06

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

Amount Raised ($B)

Page 24: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 24

US VC backed M&As (2013-2016)

118 M&As of venture-backed

companies in the U.S. garnered

$12.15 billion during 4Q 2016.

► Compared to 3Q 2016, when

a total of 151 transactions

accumulated $25.48 billion,

the number of deals

decreased 22% along with a

52% decline in amount

raised.

► The largest M&A deal of the

quarter was

Krux Digital Inc., which was

acquired by Salesforce.com

for $700 million.

U.S. VC-backed M&A Activity (2013 - 2016)

4Q'13

1Q'14

2Q'14

3Q'14

4Q'14

1Q'15

2Q'15

3Q'15

4Q'15

1Q'16

2Q'16

3Q'16

4Q'16

Amount Paid ($B) $15 $18 $13 $21 $35 $12 $11 $16 $17 $21 $23 $25 $12

Number of M&As 153 142 145 155 132 144 108 145 134 144 148 151 118

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

Page 25: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Private M&A Above $50M

Number

Venture

Backed

M&A

Total Amount

$M

Ave Time

To Exits

Venture

Backed

Ave Time

To Exits

2014 16 9 3,449 5.5 6.3

2015 26 21 3,630 7.2 7.5

2016 18 11 2,702 7.8 6.3

1.1

1.92.1

2.6

2.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Israel VC backed investment ($B)

$2.9b

$3.9b

$2.1b

$3.4b

$2b

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

amount paid (deals above $10m)

Israel VC backed M&A

Page 26: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 26

What are the new opportunities?

Page 27: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

And others…

The changing in Israeli High-Tech Funding Landscape 2016

Equity Partners 3i

15% Israeli

Less than 1B$ is a failure

Expensive ticket to get in, Low supply

18159

American entrepreneurs continue to look for unicorns:1 in 5 founders says they’re rising a unicorns

- A lot of companies at the EXTENDED seed.

- Old model tries to raise in a changing environmentNew entrance of

small organizations looking for opportunities but some are opportunistic and lack methodology and discipline

Page 28: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:
Page 29: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

B2C16%

Cyber15%

Enterprise software12%

Data Analytics9%

e-Commerce9%

Ad- tech8%

Fintech8%

Cleantech6%

IoT4%

Marketplace3%

Smart City/home3%

DH3%

Automotive2%

Semi1%

Hardware Communication1%

Round A and seed 2016 (103 companies)

Page 30: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

And others…

The changing in Israeli High-Tech Funding Landscape 2016

Equity Partners 3i

15% Israeli

Less than 1B$ is a failure

Expensive ticket to get in, Low supply

18159

American entrepreneurs continue to look for unicorns:1 in 5 founders says they’re rising a unicorns

- A lot of companies at the EXTENDED seed.

- Old model tries to raise in a changing environmentNew entrance of

small organizations looking for opportunities but some are opportunistic and lack methodology and discipline

Page 31: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 31

Why 2017 is excellent year to invest?

► Investors will hold the upper hand

► Some investors are tired by the high valuation

► Better DNA of companies: Increase in productivity and decrease in

salaries

► Availability of talent

► The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations

order

► New Mega Trend – new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

VR/AR,AI, Robots, Bots, self driving cars, private spaceflights, Gene

editing, and others

Page 32: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 32

New Tech Wave-Doing the same things in much lower cost:

► Truck drivers: 3.5m worldwide; otto+uber

► Diagnosing medical imaging; zebra

► AI will be better in researching case laws

► Low level accountants will be eaten by software

► Stock traders

► AI doctors

► IoT: from 6b to 100b: needs more computing power, better research

Page 33: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 33

Five key themes for M&A in 2017

► Money that will be repatriated back from off shore can boost the

M&A

► Capital Markets are expected to be opened again

► Valuation gap to widen

► Alliances offer accelerated path to growth/innovation: digital

disruption prompts new avenues via partnership and joint

ventures, which avoid complexities of full integration

► PE must evolve to deploy dry powder: unused PE capital reached

a record $536B in 2016 (60% in the US).

Page 34: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

Page 34

Investors: Steps towards 2017

► Early stage is where you should be short term and long term, BUT

value correctly the pre-emptive

► Expertise in specific sectors- New platforms

► Be part of Vertical eco-systems

► Small funds are in limited competition with the big ones

► More risk but better spread out

► Develop relationships to get best founders

► Look for proven business model for extended seed money. The

opportunities are out there but not as unicorns

Page 35: 2017 Opportunities & Risks baron.pdf · The capital market will open later in 2017 for IPOs and new valuations order New Mega Trend –new wave of tech creates enormous opportunities:

EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory

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© 2017 Kost Forer Gabbay & Kasierer

All Rights Reserved

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