Upload
trananh
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Mark Seetin Director Regulatory and Industry AffairsUS Apple Association
Mark SeetinDirector Regulatory and Industry Affairs
US Apple Association
2017 US Apple Crop Outlook and Overview
This presentation summarizes USApplersquos 2017 Production and Utilization Analysis
2017 USDA APPLE CROP FORECAST
Source USDA - August 10 2017
125014501650185020502250245026502850
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
2813
23902684
2487
TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS
Down 7from 2016
125014501650185020502250245026502850
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
2813
23902684
2487
TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS
Down 7from 2016
Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production
2813 2684
12014 4
2016
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
323 (2016)
2520 million bu production
268 million bu production (2016)
Source USDA
468 (1995)
BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)
6 percent higher production
31 percent fewer acres
YIELD PER ACRE2003-16
Source USDA
831
500550600650700750800850900950
Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)
50 Increase in 13 years
EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS
- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
58326 59924 51533 55786
Source USDA and USApple
Up 8
Source USDA
MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
28976 28662 30655
22500
Source USDA and USApple
Down 27
EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
87302 88586 82188 78286
Source USDA
Down 5
EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION
0
20
40
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2014
2017
F
38
3137
31 31
Source USDA and USApple
5-Yr Average = 34
WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
193983 150417
186229 170381
F = Forecast
WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)
Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years
5 Year Average =127
0
50
100
150131
States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1
2017 USDA Crop Forecast
New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av
New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av
Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av
Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the
5 yr av
Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av
California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av
USApple 2017 Regional Estimates
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source USDA
320336
Down 5
AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP
(CENTS PER POUND)
50100150200250300350400450500
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP
(CENTS PER POUND)
Source USDA
Down 7
412441
Source USDA
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
213201
Up 6
AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP
(DOLLARS PER TON)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)
4250645085
Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year
UP 6
Crop Year
TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)
Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Up 3 from 2015 Crop
$954332
$928574
Crop Year
TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS
Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year
Country MT(000)
42 lb Bu of total
Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370
Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085
3016854
37
US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE
Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)
Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 22793$ 2371$
Imports 164 4328$ 2644$
bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples
bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)
$954
$708
$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance
of $708 million from the 2016 crop
UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP
Fresh67
Not Marketed39
Total Canned106
Juice119
Other Products12
Dried30
Frozen12
Fresh Slices12
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33
Fresh51
Not Marketed
20Total
Canned140Juice
27
Other Products
10Dried40
Frozen10
Fresh Slices00
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49
UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP
GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME
Fresh67
Not Marketed39
Total Canned106
Juice119
Other Products
12Dried30
Frozen12
Fresh Slices12
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
2016
Fresh51
Not Marketed20
Total Canned140
Juice27
Other Products
10Dried40
Frozen10
Fresh Slices00
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
1994
2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION
Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales
At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015
MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS
Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted
2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ
All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation
growers received 33 more from 2016 crop
33
101411
254648
257148
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017
(1994 ndash 98)
APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017
INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING
bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed
(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved
124 million
MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY
Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved
June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)
Source USApple Market News
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved
124 million
MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY
Nov ndash Jun Moved
June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)
Source USApple Market News
Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1
29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1
bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed
bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory
bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)
INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS
US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Source USApple F = Forecast
118
51 F
US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)
15
20
25
30
35
40
Source USApple F = Forecast
195
41
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION
Source USApple
28
57