Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2018/2019Crop Overview
2018 Highlights
• US Pecan Exports down 13.5%
• Exports of Pecan Kernels up 22.5%
• Overall Consumption up 3.3%
• US Domestic Consumption up 17.3%
Product availablefor sale by US
2017 2018 (est.) 2019 (est.)
Carry-In 155,128,580 180,529,589 180,000,000
US Crop 304,850,000 242,930,000 260,000,000
Mexican Imports 253,296,635.16 322,217,942 270,000,000
Total Supply 713,275,215.16 745,407,531 700,000,000
Carry-out 180,529,589 180,000,000 150,000,000
Consumption 533,015,626.16 565,407,531 560,000,000
Note: Figures are expressed in pounds, inshell basis, and do not take into account US Inshell sent to Mexico for shelling. Carry-in meats are converted assuming a 44% yield. Mexican import meats are converted assuming a 50% yield. Data Sources: USDA NASS & FAS, USDA Market News & Nature’s Finest Foods
World Supply - Inshell Pounds
Country 2017 2018 2019 (est.)
US 304,850,000 242,930,000 260,000,000
Mexico 322,245,875 348,520,320 321,880,000
South Africa 36,375,900 40,123,720 35,273,600
Australia 7,716,100 4,409,200 7,000,002
US Carry-In 155,128,580 180,259,589 180,000,000
WORLD TOTAL* 826,316,455 816,242,829 804,153,602
Source: USDA NASS, Stahman Farms-Australia, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut–SA, Bester-SA, Mtebeni Valley Farms, SA, Agricultural Information Service - Mexico, Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.
*Note: World total does not include China or other emerging countries
Pecan productionUnited States vs Mexico
Source: USDA NASS. Foreign Ag Service, Mexican Agriculture Information Service & Nature’s Finest Foods
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (
Po
un
ds
)
Crop Year
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
450,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(est)
US Crop Mexico
Mexican Production
Pounds/Acre 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000
Total Pounds (Millions)
240,848 301,060 361,272 421,484 481,646
Source: Agricultural Information Service-Mexico
As of July 24, 2019, Mexico had 335,815,600 acres of pecan trees 240,848,430 of which were in production
Primary varieties: Westerns and Wichita's
World Supply
0.00
100,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
700,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
900,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
2019(est)
Carry-In US Crop Australia Mexico South Africa
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (
Po
un
ds
)
Crop Year Source: USDA NASS, Stahman Farms-Australia, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut–SA, Bester-SA, Mtebeni Valley Farms, SA, Agricultural Information Service - Mexico, Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.
US Pecan Exports
Source: USDA Foreign Ag Service
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Poun
ds (In
sh
ell B
asis
)
Crop Year
Total Exports
Breakdown of US Pecan Exports
Source: USDA Foreign Ag Service
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (P
ou
nd
s)
Crop Year
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exports - Other Countries
Exports to Holland
Exports to UK
Exports to Mexico
Exports to Canada
Total Exports to China(incl: China/HK/VN)
US Pecan Exports to Germany
Source: USDA Foreign Ag Service
0.00
2,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
12,000,000.00
14,000,000.00
16,000,000.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (P
ou
nd
s)
Crop Year
US Consumption vsUS Exports
Source: Foreign Ag Service, Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.
Crop Year
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (P
ou
nd
s)
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
US Consumption Total Exports
US Kernel Exports vs.Total Exports to China
0.00
20,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
120,000,000.00
140,000,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Exports to China (incl: China/HK/VN) Meat Exports
Source: USDA NASS, Foreign Ag Service and APC
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (
Po
un
ds
)
Crop Year
US Consumption vs.Kernel Exports
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (est)
US Consumption Meat Exports
Source: USDA NASS. Foreign Ag Service & Nature’s Finest Foods
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (
Po
un
ds
)
Crop Year
South Africa:Projected Pecan production
Source: Golden Peanut & Tree Nut, SA & Nature’s Finest Foods
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (
Po
un
ds
)
Crop Year
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (est) 2020 (est) 2021 (est) 2022 (est) 2023 (est) 2024 (est) 2025 (est) 2026 (est)
Cold Storage Holdings-NASS, APC & Committed Inventory
Month
Ins
he
ll E
qu
iva
len
t (P
ou
nd
s)
Source: USDA NASS, American Pecan Council
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
USDA Cold Storage APC Cold Storage APC Committed Inventory
Percent of Committed Inventory In Cold Storage
Month Source: American Pecan Council
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Some ‘Interesting’ Differences Between USDA and APC Data
Source: USDA FAS and American Pecan Council
USDA* APC*
Shipments to China (CH/HK/VN) 13,146,030 13,943,680
Shipments to Mexico 65,649,020 15,573,931
Shipments to Holland 24,839,669 12,334,210
Total Exports 209,556,823 102,792,259
Imports from Mexico 322,217,943 101,631,250
*Note: USDA data covers 12 months; 8/1 – 7/31. APC data covers 11 months;9/1 - 7/31. All figures reflect inshell equivalent pounds assuming50% meat to inshell conversion
Questions?
