1

2020年下半年展望

迈向新常态

目录

迈向新常态 1

资产类别表现 3

环球股票表现

环球债券表现

环球股票指数表现

投资主题探讨 5

与疫情共存

找寻收益

去全球化

投资组合策略 8

股票

固定收益

外汇货币、大宗商品、另类投资

资产配置策略 11

1

迈向新常态

年初至今短短数月，新冠病毒迅速把从2009年开始至2020年的历史上最长的经济扩张周期环划上句号，环球市场从一个盛世跌落至数十年来最严重急剧衰退的低点。环球格局转变，持续数年的中美贸易和科技领域摩擦持续升温，去全球化发展加上防止疫情扩散的封关措施令环球经济恶化。为避免陷入经济危机，各国央行，尤其是美联储大举印钞和推出大规模的财政和公共卫生措施。理论上大规模印钞提高债务水平的风险是将产生恶性通胀和滞胀危机。但这些风险将会被人口变化—即人口急速老龄化和科技发展提高生产力所制衡。疫情引起的环球短暂的经济停摆，和逐步经济重开措施正改变环球经济格局。科技网络和在线产业将长期受惠，而传统零售业将受危害。而大型企业，发达和拥有资源国家比起小企业和新兴市场国家将更有能力应付疫情。

因卫生措施将减弱经济活动，预计直至有效的疫苗出现和广泛接种，环球经济很难恢复到疫情前的状态。在2020年下半年，我们正进入一个新常态，而这一个新的经济周期将从一个短暂和深度的经济衰退中诞生，随之而来的是一个不平等和集中在个别经济板块和地区的快速经济复苏，而出现不平均的市场回报分布。对投资者而言，因美联储已把息率降至接近零，未来数年找寻收益将是一个主要目标，而资产配置也需要有所改变。建议组合不适合持有过多现金等待调整。建议保持投资，通过分散资产来控制风险，维持组合流动性和强化组合资产质量。在这个特别的周期，另类投资如私募基金和绝对回报策略基金能为一个传统的股债组合分散风险。

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

印度马来西亚

英国欧元区

台湾韩国泰国巴西中国日本香港

澳大利亚新加坡

美国

2020年度刺激经济措施对国内生产总值占比

资料来源: FactSet, Citi Research 截至5月31日

2

资产类别表现

环球股票表现

环球债券表现

资料来源：彭博资讯 截至2020年6月15日备注: 环球股票指MSCI ACWI Index

资料来源：彭博资讯 截至2020年6月15日备注: 自2018年1月累计收益环球投资级债券指Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate Index, 环球高收益债券指Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Global-IG Global-HY

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

收盘价 2020年上半年变动

预测市盈率（倍）

预测市帐率（倍） 预测收益率

MSCI 全球指数 2,171 (7.9%) 22.5 2.3 2.3%

MSCI 新兴市场指数 966 (13.3%) 14.4 1.6 2.8%

MSCI 亚洲除日本指数 495 (10.5%) 15.6 1.7 2.8%

道琼斯指数 25,763 (9.7%) 19.1 4.0 2.3%

标普500指数 3,067 (5.1%) 19.3 3.4 1.9%

纳斯达克综合指数 9,726 8.4% 26.6 4.8 1.2%

标普BMV IPC指数 37,417 (14.1%) 15.7 2.0 3.0%

巴西IBOVESPA指数 92,376 (20.1%) 15.4 2.1 2.9%

欧元区STOXX50指数 3,136 (16.3%) 15.7 1.7 3.3%

英国富时100指数 6,065 (19.6%) 13.7 - -

德国DAX30指数 11,911 (10.1%) 15.7 1.6 2.9%

法国CAC40指数 4,816 (19.4%) 16.2 1.7 3.2%

富时MIB指数 18,969 (19.3%) 12.0 1.2 4.2%

瑞士市场指数 9,843 (7.3%) 17.8 2.5 3.2%

俄罗斯MOEX指数 2,719 (10.7%) 6.9 0.9 6.4%

土耳其BIST30指数 126,636 (8.8%) 7.8 1.0 3.7%

日经225指数 21,531 (9.0%) 18.4 1.7 1.9%

标普ASX 200指数 5,720 (14.4%) 17.9 2.1 4.1%

恒生指数 23,777 (15.7%) 11.0 1.2 3.7%

恒生国企指数 9,656 (13.5%) 8.7 1.1 3.8%

沪深300指数 3,955 (3.5%) 13.0 1.7 2.4%

上证指数 2,890 (5.2%) 11.9 1.4 2.6%

深证指数 1,865 8.3% 20.0 2.6 1.4%

台湾TAIEX指数 11,306 (5.8%) 18.3 1.9 3.8%

韩国KOSPI指数 2,031 (7.6%) 15.3 0.9 2.1%

印度NIFTY50指数 9,814 (19.4%) 21.5 2.8 1.5%

新加坡STI指数 2,614 (18.9%) 13.1 1.1 4.1%

马来西亚KLCI指数 1,499 (5.7%) 16.4 1.5 3.5%

印尼JCI指数 4,816 (23.5%) 16.2 2.2 2.2%

3

环球股票指数表现

资料来源：彭博资讯 截至2020年6月15日备注: 收益以本地货币计算

投资主题探讨

与疫情共存

因新冠病毒（Covid-19）在全球的迅速扩散，以及随后为抗击疫情所推出的新的保持社交距离规范及更为严格的遏制措施，导致了世界各地经济体朝着线上购物、学习及娱乐，同时还有远程办公/远程会议的方向转变。疫情所导致的一系列行为变化很可能会在当前危机及之后很长的一段时间内继续存在，但也为那些有能力抓住这类服务增量需求的公司，提供了长期增长的机会。随着企业适应不断变化的消费者行为和新的监管规定，这也将会影响未来投资方向，进一步在工业和自动化服务，以及创造新的可持续投资机会上。新冠肺炎危机将对企业行为和投资者的风险偏好造成结构性变化。

建立企业持续运行策略对于企业而言多数面临巨大压力，因疫情病毒爆发从而导致的供需冲击在速度、深度和广度上都是前所未有的，这也将让企业对风险认知产生持久的影响。企业将变得更为谨慎，并将专注于商业战略和在资产负债表方面建立足够弹性。企业还将确保他们所拥有设备完善的备选工作地点和强大的技术支持，以供员工能够实施远程工作的需求；同时企业将保证供应链更加分散和多样化，降低客户和供应量风险的集中度，确保资产负债表更强健牢固，具有更大流动性、更长期的融资和更低的杠杆率。对许多公司而言，这可能意味着减少派息、减少回购和资本支出计划，以及向投资者募集资金。随着一些资本不足的公司的艰难复苏，受新冠疫情严重影响的行业将进行整合和重组，如航空、能源、大型购物中心、汽车、酒店和线下休闲娱乐等。

加快转移线下活动到线上 新冠疫情触发了远程工作和在线渠道的出现和普及，将加速“线下到线上”现象，强化远程办公生产力、云业务模型和数据的兴起、电子商务、数字娱乐休闲和远程医疗等行业发展。社交距离措施也在推动制造业和各个工业领域的企业采用软件和机器人技术，从长期角度来看，这将有助于降低成本。医生、律师、咨询顾问、教师甚至是体育教练等服务提供者也在加强向其客户提供在线服务的能力。

找寻收益

现金不再是王伴随着主要经济体与新冠疫情的斗争，以及努力应对低通胀和遏制疫情蔓延所带来的巨大需求的冲击，全球利率将在未来的长时间内保持较低水平。美联储已承诺将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并继续使用各种工具支持增长，来缓冲新冠疫情对美国经济的影响。中国、欧洲和日本也实施了大规模货币政策干预措施，以支持本国经济复苏。为应对新冠疫情对金融的影响，美联储将其政策利率下调至0.0-0.25%。因此，持有现金现阶段无法提供收益，在分散投资方面也无价值，同时很有可能会成为对投资组合回报的最大拖累。

在6月的联邦公开市场委员会会议（FOMC）上，美联储将投资者的注意力重新转移至经济风险上，预计美国今年的产出将下降6.5%，失业率将在2020年底时达到9.3%。美联储主席鲍威尔评论强调了经济的不确定性，并暗示在民众确信新冠疫情风险完全消失以前（这也意味着在疫苗出现以前），经济可能不会完全复苏。美联储的预测表明，政策利率将一直维持不变直至2022年底，这也印证了利率在未来较长时间内将保持在低位的观点。而在当今世界超低利率的环境下，持有过多现金则成了一种代价高昂的策略。在这种背景下，投资者更有动力去寻求其他收益来源。潜在的套利来源包括有选择性地投资于基本面稳固的固定收益工具和股票，以及私募股权或私人债务。

-30.0%

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40.0%

12/31/2019 1/31/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020

Solactive 云端服务指数

5

投资主题探讨

资料来源: PredictIt

资料来源: Solactive, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

0

1

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3

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12/1

/199

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12/1

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9

联邦基金利率 (%)

定息工具再受欢迎 在经历了十多年来最严重的抛售风潮后，随着各国央行和其决策者的协同刺激措施开始见效，信贷市场在4月出现反弹。新兴市场企业股上涨3.3%，其中高收益率上涨4.5%，投资级别上升2.6%。在发达市场中，美国投资等级在4月份上涨了5.1%，高收益债券增长了3.6%。而面对新冠疫情，美联储采取了一系列令人震惊的刺激措施。迄今为止，这些措施包括使资产负债表膨胀至接近7万亿美元，引入一个特殊目的机构来购买企业债券，开放与各央行的货币互换额度以增加美元的全球供应，并放宽银行释放其放贷能力的条件。4月9日，美联储推出了一项2.3万亿美元的计划以支持地方政府和中小企业。全球范围内，数十家央行紧随美联储的脚步，在今年头四个月主动降息，总计达1,520个基点（据彭博报道）。在美联储的支持和对美国经济将重启的乐观情绪的作用下，波动性下降，十年期美国国债交易窄幅波动。

-25.0%

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-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

12/31/2019 1/31/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020

美国 vs 新兴市场债券回报

US IG US HY EM IG EM HY

新兴市场机会重现新型市场企业指数从3月23日往后的一个月内反弹约100个

基点，但比一月份的水平仍高出235个基点。高收益债的信用利差回落200点，但比一月份的水平仍高出380点。投资等级距3月份以来收缩60个基点，但依旧距1月份时的情况高出160个基点。4月9日美联储宣布将选择性购买美国高收益债券和ETFS之后，企业债券的资金流入加速。此前，美联储为了解冻信贷市场，推出了一种特殊目的工具来在公开市场上购买美国投资级债券。尽管美联储的行动没有一件是专门针对新兴市场信贷的，但它确实在重塑投资者对冒险的信心，使资产类别产生了间接的好处。目前来看新冠疫情的最终影响、范围和持续时间在很大程度上仍未可知，然而，新兴市场的信贷息差不太可能重现全球金融危机期间的低点，当时高收益息差平均超过20%或二千基点以上。从信用质量的角度来看，目前市场构成要比当时优越得多，其中中国是最大的组成部分（包括香港在内的JPM CEMBI综合指数的33%），而近10%则来自海湾合作委员会（GCC）（尤其是阿布扎比和沙特）。这些国家和地区的许多知名企业具起着决定性作用，而通常，政府拥有其大量股份。这些国家将会在面临严重压力时成为支持他们的重要战略方。

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12/31/2019 1/31/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020

瑞信新兴市场企业债券对基准息差

去全球化

中美贸易冲突导致了中美关系发生根本性重置，这将对全球化趋势，特别是全球供应链产生广泛影响。现在的问题在于去全球化的程度将会多大，以及在哪些领域将受到首当其冲的影响。美国和中国之间的贸易战已经导致两个超级经济大国之间的贸易减少，而限制措施也使得直接投资流量减少，特别是在高科技领域。去全球化主题在未来将会是市场和经济发展的一个相对复杂的驱动力。

资料来源: 巴克莱, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

资料来源: 瑞信, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

6

资料来源: 美国联储局, 彭博资讯 截至3月31日

中美摩擦升温对市场的影响

在“第一阶段”协议达成的一段平静时期之后，新冠疫情迅速损害了中美关系的发展。双方的行动和反应已经远远超出了贸易范畴，包括对技术出口的新限制、对金融流动的限制，以及美国对待香港特殊地位的方式可能产生的变化。地缘政治将继续在亚洲的未来中发挥越来越重要的作用，但是中美之间日益紧张的局势不应破坏正在进行的整体复苏。由于影响可能在特定的行业中发酵，因此积极的投资组合管理非常重要，我们将继续看好中国及整个亚洲的长期增长趋势。

资金流通受限针对中美之间的资金流动美国政府出台了几项措施。今年5月，白宫指示联邦养老基金暂停投资中国股市的计划。虽然对资金流的潜在影响极小（流入中概股的潜在资金约为24亿美元），但这一举动发出了一个相对负面的信号，即美国可能将会对两国之间的资金流动施加更多的限制。除了限制美国证券投资流入中国资产外，美国参议院还通过了《外国公司问责法案》（Holdings Foreign Companies Accountable Act）。该法案将禁止未获得美国监管机构认证的会计事务所所服务的公司在美国交易所进行证券交易，法案将在三年后生效。此法案的直接影响可能有限，因为没有获得美国监管机构认证的审计的公司将有三年时间作为缓冲。而退市的风险可能会加速中概股在其他交易所的二次上市，而香港交易所将可能是最主要的受益方。

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香港交易所

聚焦香港今年5月，美国国务院宣布“香港不再保持高度自主权”。白宫随后发表声明，特朗普政府将可能撤销香港的优惠待遇。这项于1992年由美国国会通过的法案赋予美国将视香港为单独实体从而获得美国给予香港的一系列优惠

待遇，包括关税、出口管制、投资、技术转让、引渡协议和签证规则等。美国可以撤销某些领域的优惠待遇，比如贸易和出口管制，而不是改变立场并完全取消1992年法律允许的所有优惠待遇。但美国对香港的政策的改变将对经济直接产生的影响甚微。香港与美国之间的直接贸易额非常小，并且绝大多数是来自中国内地的再出口产品，而这些产品已经按照中国的关税水平征收关税。唯有对敏感技术的出口管制可能将影响香港，但该影响在某些层面已经发生了。在未来评估影响时，有三方面因素值得关注：第一，该法案将如何执行；第二，美国将如何回应；第三，香港的社会动荡运动发展的程度。我们预测北京方面将采取温和宽松的态度，继续给予一些优惠措施，而抗议示威活动的小范围复苏总体影响并不太大。另一方面，如果该法案对司法独立产生了重大影响，美国将完全撤销香港的特殊地位，而暴力活动或将持续进行——那么香港作为全球金融中心的地位将摇摇欲坠，但在当前阶段该情况并不太可能发生。

科技竞赛及供应链干扰同样在5月，美国发布一项新规定，禁止全球公司向其受限制的“实体清单”上之公司（包括华为）出售没有许可证的以及美国制造的机械或软件设计及生产产品。这无疑切断了华为与主要供应商之一——台湾芯片制造商台积电（TSMC）的联系。据报道，美国商务部禁止台积电现接受华为的新订单，除非获得了美国商务部的豁免。在禁令颁布一周后，美国进一步收缩了对与中国企业开展业务的限制，增加了33家中国企业进入其“实体名单”。科技的竞争或许是不断恶化的中美关系中最重要的方面，而半导体产业链一直是主要攻击目标之一。 尖端芯片的生产中的某些步骤是高度集中的，先是在美国进行芯片设计，然后由一些大型的韩国和台湾制造商进行生产。这使得出口管制比其他行业更加有效。在管制措施实施过程中，既存在豁免的空间，也可以极为严格地限制这些全球制造商对中国公司的供应。如果严格执行，对整个供应链的影响可能是巨大的。除了对科技行业的影响之外，供应链的转移和去全球化将对投资者产生持久影响。绝大多数中国制造业（玩具、电器、鞋服、运动器材以及中低端消费电子产品）在过去十年中，工资和成本的上涨已促使其渐渐从中国转移到其他周边国家。但是在这一转移过程中，中国在全球市场出口份额比重仅下降了几个百分点。供应链的转移已经持续了一段时间，并且很可能会继续在亚洲供应链中创造新的增长机会。

资料来源: Morgan Stanley

资料来源: 香港交易所, 彭博资讯 截至6月23日

7

股票

庞大的财政支出计划和宽松的货币政策为市场提供了上涨动力。市场反弹的幅度反映了基准预期的情景，即新冠疫情造成的全球衰退将是短暂的。标普500指数成分股的公司前景依然不明，许多公司都降低或撤回了盈利预期。尽管我们对那些资产负债表有弹性且长期增长前景强劲的公司保持乐观，但在强劲的市场反弹之后，发达市场大盘股的风险回报和吸引力下降。受重创的新兴市场股票、发达市场的中小市值股票反而在当前水平上具有吸引力。

聚焦于结构性调整趋势我们继续建议投资者关注结构性趋势，无论新冠疫情和宏观环境如何不确定，这些趋势都将持续存在，包括：

线上经济活动– 新冠疫情促使企业和消费者用线上的方式实现其日常需求，包括会议、工作、购物、娱乐和教育。我们倾向于继续超配互联网相关行业。

寻求收益–全球经济增速减缓、更多货币宽松政策将使全球和中国的低利率长期维持。因此，我们倾向于配置可以提供可持续现金流和较高收益率的公司。中资银行、香港本地地产公司可提供战术交易机会。

政策导向–汽车行业、基础设施建设，包括新基建等预计会得到政策支持，例如科技、电信（特别是与5G相关）、互联网（包括数据中心运营）和电网设备等部门。

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

12/31/2019 1/31/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020

Solactive 5G指数

供应链的转移– 新冠疫情在中国大陆以外国家和地区的

蔓延将给供应链带来更多压力，并可能加速整个亚洲供应链的转移。我们对于IT硬件领域，尤其是其中对海外市场的依存度较高的企业仍然保持谨慎。

关注削减股息新冠疫情下，我们将面临前所未有的市场环境，公司股息和回购正面临巨大压力。盈利下降最多的行业来自于非必需消费品、能源、工业、航空、零售、汽车经销和酒店业。年初至今，欧洲斯托克600指数中的130多家公司削减了2020年的股息，占市值的20%，以金融，能源，工业和非必需消费品领域为首。金融行业中，我们已经看到一些英国银行取消了股息，但并非只是因为公司的财务状况，而是响应当局呼吁而保留资本金，以便在新冠疫情可能导致的衰退中帮助支撑经济。对于一些已经削减了股息的公司，许多的资产状况尚能继续支撑一段时间的股息支付，但是仍然选择在当前环境下保留现金。关于股息的争论不仅限于公司是否可以根据其财务状况和前景决定支付，还应考虑社会、道德和政府政策因素决定。例如，有人认为对社会负责的公司应削减股息，以保留财务上的灵活性并腾出资源以支持利益相关方（例如雇员和供应商），并为社区采取更广泛的行动。总体而言，那些财务状况和前景较弱，依靠政府财政支持和/或被政府持有的公司更有可能考虑削减股息。另一方面，医疗保健、消费必需品和信息技术等行业相对于其他而言受影响较小。

固定收益

展望未来，全球各大央行将继续维持低利率，以支持新冠后的经济复苏并摆脱通缩陷阱。但由于10年到30年期美国国债的收益率仅为0.65％至1.30％，我们现在仅视其为风险对冲的工具，而非收入来源。在这一背景下，对收益率的追逐将成为未来市场的重要动力，这支持了我们对新兴市场尤其是亚洲的高收益债的乐观看法。

偏好亚洲的高收益和投资级别债

在高收益和投资级类别债券领域，我们维持对中国带动的亚洲市场的偏好。 我们的乐观基于以下几个因素：1）根据国际货币基金组织的预测，中国是少数几个可能在2020年实现GDP增长的主要新兴市场国家之一；2）中国资料来源: Solacrive, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

8

投资组合策略

表现出对新冠病毒疫情的有效管理；3）中国拥有充足的财政和货币政策空间应对经济和社会挑战。国内企业在四月已经重新出在离岸市场发行美元债券，由于市场反应理想，新发行债券比二级市场同类型债券甚至出现溢价。

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

12/31/2019 1/31/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020

中国 vs 新兴市场债券回报

中国 新兴市场

对拉丁美洲市场保持谨慎我们对拉丁美洲市场维持谨慎的立场，原因是该地区对新冠危机的应对方式各不相同。一方面，秘鲁和智利推出了分别相当于其国内生产总值12％和4.7％的刺激方案。事实上，前者在4月份已经发行了30亿美元的债券，而后者计划在2020年第二季度采取相同措施。另一方面，巴西的领导层正显示出矛盾的迹象，墨西哥政府则一直行动极度缓慢，不光在医疗的应对措施方面，而且在推出经济刺激方面也仅为GDP的1.1％的较低水平。此外，该地区的新冠疫情爆发尚处于早期阶段，市场预计在墨西哥、哥伦比亚、危地马拉、玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔的主权评级降级之后，危地马拉、巴拉圭和秘鲁将会紧随其后。

重新权衡投资级别债券自新冠疫情1月份开始影响以来，在新兴市场信贷领域，高收益债已经首当其冲遭受风险偏好降低带来的冲击。 但是，假设信用利差不会重新回到2008/2009年水平的基础上，对于长期投资者，这些债券相比投资级别债券而言相当有吸引力，可以重新考虑将其纳入投资组合。

外汇货币、大宗商品、另类投资

外汇市场反映经济“V型”复苏预期，市场预计美元将适度走弱随着焦点从抑制新冠疫情转向经济重新开放，外汇市场的表现和驱动力可能会因全球经济复苏的不同情景而有很大差异。未来几个月的增长复苏会呈L型，U型或V型吗？在经济V型复苏的情景下，随着封锁措施的放松和被压抑的需求的释放，经济增长有望迅速反弹。美元的预期下跌幅度将最大，尤其是相对受益于商品价格上涨和经济复苏的商品货币。如果出现第二波感染，或将不得不考虑第二波封锁，就有可能出现L型的演变，经济将没有希望的那么快复苏。U型是不确定，社交隔离新常态表明，U形而非V形复苏是更有可能的结果。市场预期美元会走弱，但只会适度。对美中关系的担忧再次浮出水面，这对人民币而言不是好消息。欧洲央行推出了更大规模的长期融资机制。这一对银行借贷的新支持缓解了市场情绪。但是，由于欧洲缺乏政治共识，难以达成实质性的财政风险分摊机制来应对新冠病毒危机，这可能会损害欧元的长期稳定。

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美元指数

对货币超发的担忧提振黄金价格黄金与美元和美国实际利率之间的关系是最一致的：美元走强，实际利率上升，黄金价格下跌。由于美联储等主要央行的资产负债表持续大幅扩张，对货币超发的担忧使市场对黄金的中期前景保持乐观。然而值得注意的是，随着美国名义收益率跌至历史低位，黄金的安全港地位可能已经减弱。由于中央银行缺乏降息的意愿或能力，黄金的安全港地位可能会降低。市场预测金价在12个月后将达到每盎司1,800美元左右。

资料来源: 巴克莱, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

9

资料来源: ICE, 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

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黄金 (美元/盎司)

油价回升WTI 5月期货合约有史以来首次出现负值，这表明石油太多，无处安放。在非欧佩克国家严格调整石油供应以及美国页岩油盆地钻探活动突然下降的背景下，油价从负区迅速回升。经济活动逐步解封提高了对石油的需求，美国石油减产或有助于在2020年下半年及以后收紧供求关系。市场预计布伦特原油价格将在一年时间内反弹至每桶45美元。对依靠进口能源的亚洲大部分地区，低油价有利于这些地方的经济。

-180.0%-160.0%-140.0%-120.0%-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%

0.0%20.0%

WTI原油期货价格 布伦特原油期货价格

另类投资的最佳表现通常出现在经济危机之后纵观历史，私募股权、房地产和对冲基金投资经理通常在危机之后取得了他们最出色的表现。新冠大流行或许会给许多企业和资产的所有者们带来巨大的经济和财务压力，但也创造出困境投资的机会。分散的另类资产配置可以在动荡时期充当稳定器角色，并提供未来的超额收益。市场预计从现在到2021年，在央行们的宏观信贷支

持措施缩减和经济实际复苏之前，是最佳的困境资产投资时点。

10

资料来源: 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

资料来源: 彭博资讯 截至6月15日

资产配置策略

在今天的低利率环境下，市场仍然存在很多寻找收益的机会，好好运用现金比持有现金是皇道，而分散风险仍然是最好的配置策略。而历史证明在1950 至 2020年期间，一个环球和资产类别分散配置的组合的风险回报比起单一资产类别回报优胜。

(1) 保本型

组合投资目标为保本和资产安全，比资产增值更重要，建议组合配置于现金，定期存款和定息工具。

(2) 稳定收入型

组合投资目标为产生稳定收入，但也愿意配置部分组合于风险和波幅较大投资，以争取资本增值。

(3) 平衡型

组合投资目标为平衡组合收益和中期稳定资本增值，建议配置于多元化资产工具和市场。中国股票似乎容易受到与美国贸易紧张局势的影响，但实际上，该国的上市公司在北美的销售额仅占其销售额的2％，而在国内却占86％，这使得该市场成为新兴市场中受贸易影响最小的市场之一 。 中国当局也响应贸易争端刺激了经济发展。

(4) 增长型

组合投资目标为配置于多元化资产工具和市场，以平衡组合收益和中期稳定资本增值，但组合愿意配置于大部分资产于风险和波动较高的投资，以争取更高的投资回报。

(1) (2) (3) (4)

现金 1H: 5%2H: 7%

1H: 5%2H: 7%

1H: 2%2H: 5%

1H: 2%2H: 0%

股票 1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 30%2H: 30%

1H: 60%2H: 50%

1H: 80%2H: 65%

- 成熟 市场

1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 20%2H: 20%

1H: 40%2H: 35%

1H: 60%2H: 40%

- 新兴 市场

1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

1H: 20%2H: 15%

1H: 20%2H: 25%

固定收益

1H: 95%2H: 85%

1H: 65%2H: 60%

1H: 38%2H: 30%

1H: 18%2H: 20%

- 投资 级别

1H: 80%2H: 75%

1H: 55%2H: 50%

1H: 26%2H: 20%

1H: 8%2H: 10%

- 高收益 1H: 0%2H: 10%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

1H: 12%2H: 10%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

黄金 1H: 0%2H: 3%

1H: 0%2H: 3%

1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 0%2H: 5%

另类投资

1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 0%2H: 10%

1H: 0%2H: 10%

11

免责声明

本文提供的信息由以下一所或多所公司准备：德林家族办公室（香港）有限公司和/或德林证券(香港)有限公司（连同其关联公司，以下简称“德林控股”）仅供参考。德林控股旗下的成员公司现持有香港证券及期货事务监察委员会所发牌照，分別可从事第一类（证券交易），第四类（就证券提供意见），第六类（就机构融资提供意见）及/或第九类（资产管理）受监管活动。

此报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所属证券或相关金融工具的建议、出价、询价、要约、广告或推介。德林控股对其中信息力求准确可靠，但不保证对这些公开信息进行独立确认。

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1

2020 2nd Half Market Outlook

The March to the New Normal

Table of Contents

The March to the New Normal 1

Performance 3

Global Equity Performance

Global Bond Performance

Global Index Performance

Key Investment Themes 6

Living with Pandemics

The Search for Yield

De-globalization

Portfolio Strategy 10

Equities

Fixed Income

Currencies, Commodities, Alternatives

Tactical Asset Allocation 14

1

Within the timeframe of a few months, the outlook for the world economy has swung from benignly positive to one of the worst recessions in decades. The COVID-19 pandemic had brought an end to the longest economic expansion from 2009-2020 in history. The trend of de-globalization triggered by rising conflicts between US and China over trade and technology over the past few years is being exacerbated by the closure of borders. In response, central banks globally primarily the Fed have unleashed monetary interventions of unprecedented scale, while governments have also stepped up fiscal stimulus efforts and public healthcare measures to cushion their economies from the impact of the pandemic. The unprecedented stimulus from governments will result in significantly higher debt levels. Traditional economic theory would caution that excessive monetary easing could result in risks of hyperinflation, yet structural forces such as demographics i.e ageing population and technology are countervailing forces that contain inflation. The temporary global shutdown and the path to recovery from the pandemic have altered the dynamics of the global economy in material ways. Certain industries, such as technology, are permanent beneficiaries. Other sectors, like traditional retailing, are permanent victims. Large companies will weather the storm better than small ones. Developed nations with more economic and natural resources will fare better than less developed countries.

Until a vaccine is found and broadly distributed, the global economy will not fully normalize, and health frictions will dampen economic activity. We are moving in a new normal in 2H 2020. This new cycle begins with a short and deep global recession, which is likely to be followed by a sharp and uneven economic recovery across regions and sectors, leading to wide dispersion in returns. The most material issue for investors over the next few years will be low rates. With the yield on US Treasuries falling closer to zero, asset allocations will have to change materially. It is not wise for portfolios to hold too much cash. It is also not wise to time markets. Keep investing, managing risks through diversification, maintaining sufficient liquidity and building resilient portfolios remain crucial. Non-traditional asset classes

The March to the New Normal

Source: FactSet, Citi Research as of 05/31/2020

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such as private equity or absolute return strategies can offer diversification in a portfolio of mainly equities and bonds.

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South KoreaThailand

BrazilChinaJapan

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2020 Net Fiscal Stimulus as % of GDP

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Performance

Global Equity Performance

Global Bond Performance

Source: Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020Notes: Cumulative return since January 2019Global Equity refers to MSCI ACWI Index

Source: Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020Notes: Cumulative return since January 2019 Global IG refers to Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate Index, Global HY refers to Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index

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Index Close YTD Forward P/E (x)

Forward P/B (x) Est. Yield

MSCI World Index 2,171 (7.9%) 22.5 2.3 2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index 966 (13.3%) 14.4 1.6 2.8%

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index 495 (10.5%) 15.6 1.7 2.8%

Dow Jones Industrial Average 25,763 (9.7%) 19.1 4.0 2.3%

S&P 500 Index 3,067 (5.1%) 19.3 3.4 1.9%

NASDAQ Composite Index 9,726 8.4% 26.6 4.8 1.2%

S&P/BMV IPC 37,417 (14.1%) 15.7 2.0 3.0%

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Index 92,376 (20.1%) 15.4 2.1 2.9%

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR 3,136 (16.3%) 15.7 1.7 3.3%

FTSE 100 Index 6,065 (19.6%) 13.7 - - Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index 11,911 (10.1%) 15.7 1.6 2.9%

CAC 40 Index 4,816 (19.4%) 16.2 1.7 3.2%

FTSE MIB Index 18,969 (19.3%) 12.0 1.2 4.2%

Swiss Market Index 9,843 (7.3%) 17.8 2.5 3.2%

MOEX Russia Index 2,719 (10.7%) 6.9 0.9 6.4%

BIST 30 Index 126,636 (8.8%) 7.8 1.0 3.7%

Nikkei 225 21,531 (9.0%) 18.4 1.7 1.9%

S&P/ASX 200 5,720 (14.4%) 17.9 2.1 4.1%

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 23,777 (15.7%) 11.0 1.2 3.7%

Hong Kong Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 9,656 (13.5%) 8.7 1.1 3.8%

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index 3,955 (3.5%) 13.0 1.7 2.4%

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index 2,890 (5.2%) 11.9 1.4 2.6%

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index 1,865 8.3% 20.0 2.6 1.4%

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index 11,306 (5.8%) 18.3 1.9 3.8%

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index 2,031 (7.6%) 15.3 0.9 2.1%

NSE Nifty 50 Index 9,814 (19.4%) 21.5 2.8 1.5%

Straits Times Index STI 2,614 (18.9%) 13.1 1.1 4.1%

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index 1,499 (5.7%) 16.4 1.5 3.5%

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index 4,816 (23.5%) 16.2 2.2 2.2%

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Global Index Performance

Source: Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020Notes: Returns in local currency

Key Investment Themes

Living with Pandemics

The rapid global spread of Covid-19 and subsequent efforts to fight the pandemic including new social distancing norms and more drastic containment measures have accelerated a shift towards online shopping, learning and entertainment, and remote working / telecommuting in economies across the world. Some of these changes in behavior prompted by Covid-19 are likely to persist well beyond the current crisis and would provide secular growth opportunities for companies that are positioned to capture the incremental demand for such services. As businesses adapt to shifting consumer behavior and new regulations, this would also drive further investments in industrial and service automation, creating new sustainable investment opportunities over the long term. The Covid-19 crisis will create structural changes on corporate behavior and risk appetite of investors.

Building up corporate resilience

For companies, as the virus outbreak results in demand and supply shocks unprecedented in terms of its speed, depth and breadth, many companies are under tremendous pressure and this will have a lasting impact on risk perception. Companies will turn more cautious and focus on building resilience in terms of business strategy and balance sheets. Companies will also ensure that they have well-equipped back-up working locations and strong technology for employees to work remotely, that they have more diversified supply chains, less concentration in terms of customer and supply chain risks, and stronger balance sheets with greater liquidity, longer term funding and reduced leverage. For many companies, this may point to reduce dividend payouts, reduce buybacks and capital expenditure plans, and capital raising from investors. As some poorly capitalized companies struggle to recover, there will be consolidation and restructuring in sectors that are badly affected by the virus outbreak, such as airlines, energy, retail malls, autos, hotels and offline leisure.

Acceleration of “offline-to-online”

The advent and growing acceptance of remote working and online channels made necessary by the Covid-19 outbreak will accelerate the “offline-to-online” phenomenon and strengthen industry trends, such as remote office productivity, the rise of the cloud business models and data centers, e-commerce, digital entertainment and leisure, and telehealth. Social distancing rules are also driving companies in manufacturing and various industrial sectors to employ software and robotics technologies, which can serve to reduce costs over the long term. Service providers, such as doctors, lawyers, consultants, teachers and even physical trainers, are also beefing up their online service delivery capabilities to clients.

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Solactive Cloud Computing Index

The Search for Yield

Cash is not king any more

As major economies battle the Covid-19 pandemic while struggling with low inflation and the massive demand shock due to efforts to contain the virus spread, global rates will stay lower for longer. The Federal Reserve has pledged to keep interest rates near zero and to continue using its full range of tools to support growth and cushion the impact of Covid-19 on the US economy. China, Europe and Japan have also unleashed mega monetary policy interventions to support their own economies. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic’s financial fallout, the US Federal Reserve lowered its

Source: Solactive, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

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Key Investment Themes

policy rate to 0.0-0.25%. As a result, cash currently offers no yield, little value in the way of diversification, and is likely to be the largest drag on portfolio returns. During the June FOMC meeting, the Fed refocused investor attention on economic risks, predicting a 6.5% decline in US output for this year, with unemployment expected to close out 2020 at 9.3%. Powell’s comments highlighted the extent of economic uncertainty and suggested that the economy might not fully recover until people believe the risks from COVID-19 havedisappeared (implying not until a vaccine is available). The Fed’s forecasts pointed to policy rates remaining on hold until the end of 2022, supporting the view that rates will remain lower for longer.

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Federal Funds Target Rate

Holding excess cash is a costly strategy in today’s ultra-low interest rate world. Against this backdrop, investors are motivated to seek alternative sources of yield. Potential sources of carry include selective opportunities in fixed income and equities with solid fundamentals, as well as private equity or private debt.

Credit markets comeback

After a worst selloff in more than a decade, credit markets rallied in April as the coordinated stimulus from central banks and policymakers globally began to bear fruit. EM Corporates rallied 3.3% with High Yield up 4.5% and Investment Grade up 2.6%. In Developed Markets, U.S Investment Grade was up a staggering 5.1% and High Yield rose 3.6% in April. In the battle with Covid-19, the Fed has responded with a stunning program of stimulus

measures. To date these include swelling the balance sheet to close to USD 7 trillion, introducing a special purpose vehicle to buy Corporate Bonds, opening up swap lines with various Central banks to increase the supply of USD into the global economy and easing restrictions on banks to free up lending capacity. On 9 April, the Fed rolled out a USD 2.3 trillion program to bolster and local government and small and medium sized businesses. Globally, literally dozens of Central Banks have followed the Fed’s lead with proactive interest rate cuts totaling 1,520 bps for the first four months of the year (according to Bloomberg). Volatility decreased on a combination of Fed support and optimism that the U.S. economy will begin to re-open, with the ten-year US.Treasury trading in tight range.

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U.S. vs Emerging Markets Bond Returns

US IG US HY EM IG EM HY

Emerging opportunities

Emerging Market Corporates rallied some 100 basis points (bps) in one month from the 23 March wide but are still more than 235 bp off the January tight. High Yield recovered 200 bps of the widening but is still 380 bps off the January tight. Investment Grade has tightened 60 bps from the March wide but is 160 bps off the January tight. Inflows into corporate bonds accelerated after the 9 April Fed announcement that the agency would buy selective U.S High Yield bonds and ETFS. Previously the Fed had introduced a Special Purpose Vehicle to purchase US Investment Grade bonds on the open market, with the intention of unfreezing the credit markets. While none of the Fed’s actions are specifically targeted at Emerging

Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg as of 03/31/2020

Source: Barclays, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

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Source: PredictIt as of 11/11/2019

Markets Credit, it does indirectly benefit the asset class in restoring investor confidence toward risk taking．The ultimate impact, scope and duration of Covid-19 are still largely an unknown. However, Emerging Market Credit spreads are unlikely to revisit the lows achieved during the Global Financial Crises (GFC), where High Yield spreads reached over 20% on average. The composition of the market is far superior today from a credit quality perspective with China being the largest component (33% of the JPM CEMBI Broad index including Hong Kong) and almost 10% is from the GCC (Abu Dhabi and Saudi in particular). Many of the largest names from these countries are systemically important with significant government ownership. These countries may support their strategically important entities during times of severe stress.

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CS Emerging Market Corporate Bond Spread vs Benchmark

De-globalization

The US-China trade conflict has caused a fundamental reset in US-China relationship, this will have wide-ranging effects on the trend of globalization in particular the global supply chain. The question is the degree of de-globalization and in what areas its effects would be felt the most. The trade war between US and China has already brought reduced trade between the two economic superpowers, and restrictions have deflated direct investment flows, particularly in high-technology sectors. The theme of de-globalization will be a complex driver of markets and economies ahead.Financial flow restrictions

Several moves have targeted financial flows between the United States and China. In May, the White House directed the federal pension fund to halt plans to invest in Chinese equities. While the potential impact on flows is minimal (roughly $2.4 billion of potential flows into Chinese ADRs), this move sent a negative signal that the U.S. could put more restrictions on financial flows between the two countries. In addition to targeting U.S. portfolio flows into Chinese assets, the U.S. Senate also passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which would prohibit the trading of securities on U.S. exchanges for companies whose accounting firms are not certified by U.S. regulators, effective after three years of non-compliance. The bill’s immediate impact will likely be limited, as companies with non-certified auditors have three years to come into compliance. The risk of delisting will likely accelerate the pursuit of second listings of Chinese ADRs on other exchanges - and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange could be the primary beneficiary.

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Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited

The market implications of rising U.S.-China tensions

Following a period of calm in the aftermath of the “phase one” deal, the COVID-19 crisis jeopardized U.S.-China relations at a rapid pace. Actions and reactions are moving well beyond trade to include new restrictions on technology exports, restrictionson financial flows, and potential changes to how the U.S. treats Hong Kong.

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

Source: HKEX, Bloomberg as of 06/23/2020

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Geopolitics will continue to play an increasingly important role in determining Asia’s future, but rising U.S.-China tensions shall not derail the ongoing recovery. As the effects will likely be sector specific, active management is important and we continue to favor secular growth trends that are present in China and across Asia.

Hong Kong in focus

In May The U.S. State Department made a declaration that “Hong Kong no longer maintains a high degree of autonomy from China”. This was followed by a White House statement that the Trump Administration would begin the process of revoking Hong Kong’s preferential treatment. The 1992 law granted U.S. entities the ability to treat Hong Kong as a separate entity granting the city a range of preferential terms covering tariffs, export controls, investment, technology transfer, extradition treaty, and visa rules, among others. The U.S. could revoke preferential treatment in certain domains such as trade and export controls, rather than flipping a switch and fully removing all preferential treatments allowed by the 1992 law. Any immediate economic impact from a change in U.S. policies towards Hong Kong is likely to be small. Hong Kong’s direct trade with the U.S. is very small, and the vast majority is re-exports from mainland China, which are already tariffed at China’s tariff levels. Export controls over sensitive technology could also be applied to Hong Kong, though in some respects, this is already happening.

There are three things to watch for going forward to assess the impact: how the law will be implemented; how the U.S. responds; and the extent to which social unrest develops in Hong Kong. We expect a light touch from Beijing, continuation of some preferential treatment, and minor resumption of protests will likely result in minimal impact. On the other hand, if the law has a significant impact on judicial independence, the U.S. fully revokes the special status, and violent protests prolong—then Hong Kong’s status as a global financial center will increasingly be at risk, but this scenario is unlikely at current stage.

Tech competition and supply chain retrenchment

In May, the U.S. issued a new rule to block companies around the world from selling to companies on its “restricted entity list” (including Huawei) if they do not hold a license and if the product uses American-made machinery or software to design or produce. This cut off Huawei’s access to one of its major suppliers, Taiwanese chip maker TSMC, which has reportedly stopped taking new orders from Huawei until it can get a waiver from the U.S. Commerce Department. A week later, the U.S. further tightened restrictions on doing business with Chinese firms when they expanded the “entity list” by 33 Chinese entities.

Tech competition may be the most significant aspect in the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship, and the semiconductor value chain has been one of the primary targets. Certain steps in the production of leading-edge chips are highly concentrated – a few U.S. chip designers at the first steps, and then later production by a few big Korean and Taiwanese foundries. This makes export controls more effective than they would be in other sectors, as there is scope for a loose implementation with many waivers, or a very tight application that severely limits the ability of global semiconductor firms to do business with Chinese entities. If enforced strictly the impact across the supply chain could be significant.

Beyond the tech impact, shifting supply chains and de-globalization will have lasting implications for investors. In the industries that make up the vast majority of what China produces – toys, appliances, footwear and apparel, sporting equipment, and low to mid-end consumer electronics, rising wages and costs have been pushing these sectors out of China and into other neighboring producers over the past ten years. Amid that shift, China’s global market share in exports has only fallen by a few percentage points. Supply shifts have been occurring for some time and will likely continue to create new growth opportunities along the Asia supply chain.

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Equities

Markets have been fueled by sizeable fiscal packages and loose monetary policies. The magnitude of the market rebound priced in expectations that the global Covid-19 recession will be short-lived. Corporate visibility among S&P 500 companies remains low, with many lowering or withdrawing guidance altogether. While we remain positive on selected companies with resilient balance sheets and robust long-term growth prospects, the risk-reward of big caps in developed markets are now less attractive after the strong market rebound. Yet the badly hit Emerging market (EM) equities, developed small- and mid-cap equities may look attractive at current levels.

Focus on structural trends

We continue to recommend that investors focus on structural trends that continue to play out regardless of fluctuations and uncertainty in the Covid-19 development and macro environment, and these include the following:

Rising online engagement – the Covid-19 outbreak has prompted businesses and consumers to engage via online channels for their day-to-day needs, including meetings, operations, shopping, entertainment and education. We maintain our preference for the internet-related sector.

Hunt for yield – contraction in global growth and more monetary easing will see that interest rates stay lower for longer for the global economy and China. As such we maintain our preference for companies offering sustainable cash flows and yields. Chinese banks, HK property developers could offer tactical trading opportunities.

Policies beneficiaries – should lend support to autos, infrastructure sectors, including “new” infrastructure, such as technology, telecom (especially in relation to 5G), internet (including data center operations) and power grid equipment sectors.

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Solactive 5G Index

Ongoing shifts in supply chains – the spread of Covid-19 beyond Mainland China will put more stress on the supply chain and could accelerate ongoing shifts in supply chains across Asia. We remain cautious on the IT hardware sector especially for those with material exposure to overseas markets.

Watch out for dividend cutsWith Covid-19, the world is facing unprecedented times and both dividends and buybacks are coming under intense pressure. The greatest downside in earnings is seen from sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Industrials, airlines, retailers, auto dealers, energy firms and hospitality. Indeed, in Europe year-to-date, 2020 dividends have been cut for more than 130 companies in the Stoxx600, representing a 20% share since the start of the year dominated by Financials, Energy, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary. In Financials, we have already seen UK banks scrapping dividends, but this action goes beyond just the financial health of the companies – they are being called on to preserve capital in order to help support the economy during the likely recession from Covid-19.

Looking at companies that have already cut their dividend, many have the balance sheet capacity to continue paying that dividend for some time, but nevertheless chose to conserve cash in the current environment. The dividend debate is also evolving beyond just whether a company

Source: Solactive, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

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Portfolio Strategy

can pay based on its financial health and outlook into whether it should pay, considering social, ethical and government policies. For instance, there is the notion that socially responsible companies should cut dividends to provide financial flexibility and free up resources to support stakeholders such as workers, suppliers and undertake wider actions for the community. Overall, companies with weaker financial health and outlook, which rely on financial assistance from the government, and/or which have government stakes in them have higher chances of cutting their dividends. On the other hand, Healthcare and certain segments of Consumer Staples and Information Technology look relatively well-sheltered versus the rest.

Fixed income

Going forward, major central banks will keep rates low to bolster the post-pandemic economic recovery and to escape the gravity of a deflation trap. However, with 10- to 30-year Treasuries yielding only 0.65% to 1.30%, we now see them solely as a risk hedge rather than also a source of income. .Against this backdrop, the hunt for yield will be an important driver of markets ahead, which underpins our positive view on emerging market in particular Asia high-yield bonds.

Prefer Asia both in High Yield and Investment Grade

Within both High Yield and Investment Grade we maintain our preference for Asia, which is driven by China. Our optimistic outlook is based on several factors: 1) China is one of the few major EM countries likely to exhibit positive GDP growth in 2020 based on IMF projections;2) China has demonstrated effective management of Covid-19 and 3) China has ample fiscal and monetary capacity to address economic and social challenges. In April, Chinese names returned to the primary market with decent new issue premiums as well as demand for these bonds.

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China vs EM High Yield Bond Returns

China EM

Cautious with Latin America

We maintain a cautious position in Latin America, as the responses to COVID crisis within the region has been diverse. On one hand, Peru and Chile are launching stimulus packages which equal to 12% and 4.7% of their GDP, respectively. Actually, the former was able in April to place bonds for US$3 bn and the latter is planning to do the same during 2Q 2020. On the other hand, Brazil’s leadership is showing contradictory signs and at the extreme Mexico’s government has been acting slow not only from the medical side but also poorly with respect the economic stimulus at only 1.1% GDP. Furthermore, the region lagged behind the outbreak of COVID-19 and market are expected to see more sovereign downgrades after Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Bolivia and Ecuador, to be follow by Guatemala, Paraguay and Peru.

Market weight on Investment grade

Within the EM Credit space, High Yield has borne the brunt of risk reduction since the impact of Covid-19 began in January. However, on the back of the assumption that spreads will not revisit 2008 / 2009 levels, it makes sense for longer-term investors to start re-engaging with the asset class at current attractive levels relative to Investment Grades.

Source: Barclays, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

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Currencies,commodities, alternatives

FX markets pricing in a “V-shaped” recovery, market expects a moderate weakening of USD

FX performance and drivers are likely to vary greatly depending on the shape of recovery for the global economy, as focus shifts from Covid-19 containment to economic reopening. Will the recovery in growth in the coming months be L, U, or V shaped? A V-shaped world envisaged a reasonable swift rebound in growth as lockdown measures are eased and pent-up demand released. The USD has the greatest scope to decline, especially against commodity currencies, which shall benefit from higher commodity prices alongside the economic upswing. If there is a second wave of infections, markets may have to contemplate a second wave of lockdowns. Then the letter “L” begins to enter the narrative. Economies may not open up as quickly as hoped. “U” is for uncertain. New normal of soft social distancing suggest a U-shaped rather than V-shaped recovery as a more likely outcome. Market expects weaker USD but only moderately. Concerns over the US-China relationship resurfaced, which is not good news for RMB. The ECB introduced more generous long term funding facility. Fresh ECB support to effectively pay banks to lend money brings some relief. But the lack of political cohesion in Europe to agree to any material fiscal risk-sharing to cope with the Covid-19 crisis may undermine the long-term viability of the EURO.

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Concerns of money printing bolstered value of gold

Correlations of gold with the USD and real US interest rates are the most consistent: stronger USD, higher real rates, lower gold price. As a result of a big and sustained balance sheet expansion by major central banks such as the Fed, concerns of money printing have kept market positive on gold’s medium-term outlook. However, it is worth noting that gold’s safe haven status – measured as positive sensitivity to changes in VIX or negative sensitivity to S&P returns -- could have diminished as US nominal yields fall to historic low levels. Gold’s safe haven status could have diminished due to the lack of willingness or capacity by central banks for rate cuts. Market forecasts gold price at about USD1800 in 12 months’ time.

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Oil prices on recovery

WTI May futures contracts turned negative for first time ever, underscoring a situation of too much oil with nowhere to put them. Oil price recovered swiftly from the negative zone on the back of a strict adjustment in non-OPEC supply, and the sudden drop in drilling activity in the US shale oil basins. A gradual reversal of the lockdowns lifting oil demand and US oil production cutback could help tighten the market in the second half of 2020 and beyond. Market expects Brent crude price to rebound to USD45/bbl in a year’s time. Lower oil prices are a boon for much of Asia.

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Source: Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

Source: ICE, Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

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The best results for alternative investments often follow economic crises

Looking at history, private equity, real estate, and hedge fund managers have achieved some of their strongest performances after crisis periods. The pandemic is likely to produce significant economic and financial stress for businesses and asset owners across many industries and asset classes, and to create distressed opportunities. A diversified allocation of alternatives can act as a stabilizer in times of turmoil and an alpha generator going forward. Market expects the best distressed opportunities will become available from now and during 2021, after the initial macro-level credit support from central banks is scaled back and the economy is actually in recovery.

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Source: Bloomberg as of 06/15/2020

Tactical Asset Allocation

Despite today’s ultra-low interest rate environment, plenty of opportunities still exist seeking for return, putting cash to work is now king and diversification is perhaps the best things to. We reiterate that a globally diversified asset allocation has produced superior risk-adjusted returns relative to every individual asset class over the past 70 years through multiple economic cycles.

(1) Capital Preservation

For investors who have a preference for capital preservation and relative asset safety over the potential for a return on investments, cash, time deposits and lower risk fix income instruments are recommended.

(2) Income Generating

For investors who seek to generate stable income but who are willing to subject some portion of their portfolios to increased risk, in order to generate a potentially greater return on investment.

(3) Balance

For investors with a blended objective who require a mix of assets and seek a balance between investments that offer stable income and those positioned for medium term sustainable capital gains.

(4) Growth

For investors with a blended objective who require a mix of assets and seek a balance between investments that offer stable income and those positioned for capital gains, they are willing to subject a large portion of their portfolio to higher than normal market risks and volatilities in anticipation of higher return on investment.

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Cash 1H: 5%2H: 7%

1H: 5%2H: 7%

1H: 2%2H: 5%

1H: 2%2H: 0%

Equities 1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 30%2H: 30%

1H: 60%2H: 50%

1H: 80%2H: 65%

- DM 1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 20%2H: 20%

1H: 40%2H: 35%

1H: 60%2H: 40%

- EM 1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

1H: 20%2H: 15%

1H: 20%2H: 25%

FixedIncome

1H: 95%2H: 85%

1H: 65%2H: 60%

1H: 38%2H: 30%

1H: 18%2H: 20%

- IG 1H: 80%2H: 75%

1H: 55%2H: 50%

1H: 26%2H: 20%

1H: 8%2H: 10%

- HY 1H: 0%2H: 10%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

1H: 12%2H: 10%

1H: 10%2H: 10%

Gold 1H: 0%2H: 3%

1H: 0%2H: 3%

1H: 0%2H: 5%

1H: 0%2H: 5%

Alterna-tives

1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 0%2H: 0%

1H: 0%2H: 10%

1H: 0%2H: 10%

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Disclaimer

The information provided herein is prepared by one or more of the following: DL Family Office (HK) Limited and/or DL Securities (HK) LIMITED (together with their affiliates, hereinafter “DL Holdings”) for general information purposes only. The affiliates of DL Holdings currently hold licenses issued by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong for Type 1 (Dealing in securities), Type 4 (Advising on securities), Type 6 (Advising on corporate finance) and/or Type 9 (Asset management) regulated activities respectively.

The content and opinions contained in this document are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations, bids, inqui-ries, offers, advertisements or referrals for the underlying securities or related financial instruments. DL Holdings makes every effort to ensure that the information in this publication is accurate and reliable but does not guarantee the independence of these public disclosures.

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