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Page 1: 2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit …4.2 Best Practices Case Studies ..... 61 4.2.1 Adoption of modern tools and analytical applications4.2.2 Best practices – adoption

www.timetric.com

2020 Foresight: Best

Practices in Managing Credit

Risk Cycle

Product Code: VR0913MR

Published Date: April 2013

Page 2: 2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit …4.2 Best Practices Case Studies ..... 61 4.2.1 Adoption of modern tools and analytical applications4.2.2 Best practices – adoption

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 2

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 6 2 Credit Card Fraud Dynamics ................................................................................................................ 8

2.1 Global Snapshot of Card Fraud ............................................................................................................... 9

2.1.1 Card fraud hotspots around the world ..................................................................................................... 9

2.1.2 Card fraud in developed and emerging economies ............................................................................... 10

2.2 Overview of Card Fraud and its Impact ................................................................................................. 12

2.2.1 Types of card fraud ................................................................................................................................ 12

2.2.2 Ramification of card fraud ...................................................................................................................... 14

2.3 Challenges in Managing Credit Card Risks ........................................................................................... 16

2.3.1 Macroeconomic challenges ................................................................................................................... 17

2.3.2 Regulatory challenges ........................................................................................................................... 19

2.3.3 Operational challenges .......................................................................................................................... 22

3 Emerging Trends in Managing Credit Card Risk .............................................................................. 24

3.1 Role of Government and Credit Bureaus in Managing Credit Card Risk .............................................. 25

3.1.1 Global developments ............................................................................................................................. 25

3.1.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................................... 29

3.1.3 North America ........................................................................................................................................ 30

3.1.4 Asia-Pacific ............................................................................................................................................ 30

3.1.5 Other key countries ............................................................................................................................... 34

3.2 Trends in Risk Management at Financial Institutions and Service Providers ....................................... 36

3.2.1 Issuers and acquirers ............................................................................................................................ 36

3.2.2 Network providers .................................................................................................................................. 43

3.2.3 Merchants .............................................................................................................................................. 46

4 Best Practice Framework in Credit Card Risk Management ........................................................... 48

4.1 Risk Management Framework ............................................................................................................... 49

4.1.1 Issuers ................................................................................................................................................... 50

4.1.2 Acquirers ................................................................................................................................................ 55

4.1.3 Network providers .................................................................................................................................. 57

4.1.4 Merchants .............................................................................................................................................. 59

4.2 Best Practices Case Studies ................................................................................................................. 61

4.2.1 Adoption of modern tools and analytical applications ........................................................................... 61

4.2.2 Best practices – adoption of innovative products .................................................................................. 74

4.2.3 Best practices – adoption of EMV Chip-PIN technology ....................................................................... 77

4.2.4 Best practices – third party expertise to manage delinquencies ........................................................... 79

5 Appendix .............................................................................................................................................. 82

5.1 Late Payments and Non-Payments ....................................................................................................... 82

5.1.1 Types of delinquency ............................................................................................................................. 82

5.1.2 Key reasons for delinquencies .............................................................................................................. 83

5.1.3 Non-payments ....................................................................................................................................... 85

5.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 86

5.3 Background ............................................................................................................................................ 87

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 3

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

5.4 Contact Us ............................................................................................................................................. 87

5.5 About Timetric ........................................................................................................................................ 87

5.6 Disclaimer .............................................................................................................................................. 88

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LIST OF FIGURES

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 4

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Credit Card Fraud Dynamics ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2: High Risk Zones ........................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3: Card Fraud in Developed Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012 ................................................................................................. 10 Figure 4: Card Fraud in Developing Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012 ................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5: Key Challenges in Managing Credit Card Risks .......................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 6: Real GDP Growth (%), 2007–2012 ............................................................................................................................................. 17 Figure 7: Unemployment Rates in Developed Economies (%), 2007–2012................................................................................................ 18 Figure 8: Unemployment Rates in Emerging Economies (%), 2007–2012 ................................................................................................. 19 Figure 9: Trends in Credit Card Risk Management .................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 10: Key Regulatory Developments .................................................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 11: Credit Ratings and Requirements ............................................................................................................................................. 27 Figure 12: Adoption of Risk Management Tools......................................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 13: Launch of Contactless Cards Worldwide, 2008–2012 ............................................................................................................... 37 Figure 14: Worldwide Contactless Card Market Size, 2008–2017 .............................................................................................................. 38 Figure 15: Online Security Device .............................................................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 16: Emergence of Charge Cards (Million), 2008–2012 .................................................................................................................... 40 Figure 17: Overview of PCI Data Security Standards ................................................................................................................................. 44 Figure 18: PIN Entry Device Security Requirements .................................................................................................................................. 45 Figure 19: Payment Application DSS Requirements .................................................................................................................................. 45 Figure 20: Verified by Visa and MasterCard SecureCode .......................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 21: Best Practice Framework in Credit Card Risk Management ...................................................................................................... 49 Figure 22: Best Practices For Issuers ........................................................................................................................................................ 50 Figure 23: Best Practices For Acquirers ..................................................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 24: Best Practices For Network Providers ....................................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 25: Best Practices For Merchants ................................................................................................................................................... 59 Figure 26: The Case of CartaSi ................................................................................................................................................................. 62 Figure 27: The Case of Banco BHD ........................................................................................................................................................... 64 Figure 28: The Case of China Merchants Bank ......................................................................................................................................... 66 Figure 29: Key SAS Products .................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 30: The Case of Viseca Card Services SA ...................................................................................................................................... 69 Figure 31: Falcon

® Fraud Manager ............................................................................................................................................................ 70

Figure 32: The Case of Hong Leong Bank ................................................................................................................................................. 71 Figure 33: The Case of Intesa Sanpaolo Card ........................................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 34: BankAmericard

® Secured Credit Card Features ........................................................................................................................ 75

Figure 35: The Case of Bank of America ................................................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 36: Key Features of iZettle’s EMV Chip-PIN Card Reader .............................................................................................................. 77 Figure 37: The Case of Visa and iZettle ..................................................................................................................................................... 78 Figure 38: Key Features and Benefits of CUCollect

TM Credit Card Collections Solution.............................................................................. 80

Figure 39: The Case of HEWFCU .............................................................................................................................................................. 81 Figure 40: Delinquency Levels and Risk .................................................................................................................................................... 82 Figure 41: Recessions and Delinquencies in the US .................................................................................................................................. 84

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LIST OF TABLES

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 5

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Card Fraud in Developed Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012 .................................................................................................. 10 Table 2: Card Fraud in Developing Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012 ................................................................................................. 11 Table 3: Real GDP Growth (%), 2007–2012 .............................................................................................................................................. 17 Table 4: Unemployment Rates in Developed Economies (%), 2007–2012 ................................................................................................. 18 Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Emerging Economies (%), 2007–2012................................................................................................... 19 Table 6: Charge Card Industry Market Size (Million), 2008–2012 .............................................................................................................. 40

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

1 Executive Summary

Credit cards are one of the most important methods of payment in the current financial system. They are

extensively used for purchasing items at retail stores, online stores, to pay utility bills and make payments for

a range of other services. When a card issuer issues a credit card to a person, it is considered to be an

extension of a loan facility. However, as with other types of loan, loans extended through credit cards also

suffer from credit risks such as defaults on timely payment or no payments at all. Moreover, the convenience

offered by credit cards to make payments is also exploited for fraudulent activities, resulting in the loss of

millions of dollars every year around the world. In order to control and limit these risks and losses, a proper

risk management framework is required to be established. This report highlights some of the major concerns

and challenges in addressing those issues and current trends around the globe in managing credit card risks.

It also provides case examples of the best practices adopted by card issuers and other participants of the card

payment industry.

Growth in card fraud in emerging economies outbids developed markets

Although card fraud is much higher in value terms in developed economies such as the US, the UK and

France, these countries have been successful in limiting the growth of fraud by adopting advanced security

measures, innovative products and strict regulations. Emerging economies like China and Russia have lagged

behind in introducing such measures and have therefore witnessed significant growth in card fraud.

Among the developed markets, the value of card fraud was highest in the US, where it increased from

US$X.XX billion in 2008 to US$X.XX billion in 2012, growing at a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. It

was followed by France whose card fraud value increased from US$XXX.X million in 2008 to US$XXX.X

million in 2012, recording a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. Among the emerging markets, the

value of card fraud in China increased from US$XX.X million in 2008 to US$XXX.X million in 2012, at a

staggering CAGR of XX.XX%. China was followed by Brazil with a card fraud value of US$XXX.X million in

2012 while, in terms of growth, Russia gained the second spot with a CAGR of XX.XX%.

Credit card industry faces a number of challenges in managing risks

The major challenges in managing credit card risks can be categorized into three broad sections:

macroeconomic challenges, regulatory challenges and operational challenges. Macroeconomic challenges

represent factors such as weak economic growth and high unemployment rates that affect the population’s

financial abilities. Regulatory challenges are the result of change in rules and regulations and the legal

environment of a country, while operational challenges are associated with the operational structure of an

organization such as its policies, infrastructure and investments.

Government regulations around the globe are aiding in the management of credit card risks

Governments, credit bureaus and financial institutions have tried to control credit card risks such as fraud,

delinquencies and non-payments by introducing several necessary regulations. Regulations such as the

single euro payment area card framework (SEPA) and the anti-money laundering regulation have indirectly

helped in the managing of these risks. Other measures taken by regulatory bodies include restriction on

issuance of credit cards to high risk customers, increase in age requirement, high income requirement for

issuance of a credit card, and a limit on the number of cards a consumer can have.

Card issuers and other market players are managing risks by adopting innovative solutions

Over the period of last five years, card issuers, acquirers, merchants and network operators have adopted

and implemented a host of security measures, regulations and business strategies to lower the chances of

fraud and credit losses. These measures include adoption of EMV chip and PIN credit cards, anti-skimming

technologies, requirement of guarantors for high risk customers, use of secured credit cards and charge

cards, behavior analysis and scoring, high-end security for online shopping such as virtual keypads, SMS

verifications and one-time passwords.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 7

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Development of an effective risk management framework

The management of risk associated with credit cards requires continuous efforts from every participant of the

card payment industry such as card issuers, acquirers, network providers and merchants. However, to do so,

development of a best practices framework is of utmost importance. A well developed framework facilitates a

better understanding of risks and areas which require attention from the intended parties, and formulates

strategies to address them. A good risk management strategy is likely to include policy development, adoption

and implementation of the policies, process review at regular intervals and infrastructure development.

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 8

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

2 Credit Card Fraud Dynamics

Credit card fraud has long been presenting challenges for the card payment industry. Broadly speaking, it

encompasses a number of malicious activities such as card theft, fund transfers and use of stolen information

to make payments not authorized by the genuine cardholder. Fraud can be classified under ‘card present’ and

‘card not present’ categories. Card present fraud generally includes fraud at POS terminals and ATMs where

the card is physically present and the purchase is made through stolen and skimmed cards. Card not present

fraud is synonymous with online trading and internet banking, and includes phishing attacks and pharming to

obtain sensitive data.

Figure 1: Credit Card Fraud Dynamics

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

Although financial charges due to credit card fraud affect financial institutions, merchants and cardholders, its

impact is most severe for merchants. Losses due to credit fraud for merchants are nearly 10 times higher than

those for financial institutions and around 20 times higher than for cardholders. This is mainly due to the

higher absorption level of credit losses by merchants emanating from unauthorized transactions, fees and the

interest associated with chargebacks.

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

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2.1 Global Snapshot of Card Fraud

This section presents a global snapshot of card fraud by taking examples from both developed and emerging

economies with their top level card fraud statistics, most of which is driven by credit cards. It also highlights

the trend that countries adopting new technologies, products and strict regulations perform better in controlling

card fraud than other countries that lag behind in such efforts. Locations considered as high risk zones for

card fraud have also been highlighted in this section, providing merchants with a better idea of where to be

extra careful in dealing with orders.

2.1.1 Card fraud hotspots around the world

The following figure highlights some of the countries and regions considered to be high risk zones regarding

card fraud (especially online fraud). Most of the countries depicted in the map are emerging economies that

have lagged behind in updating their security measures and follow relatively loose regulatory regimes.

Figure 2: High Risk Zones

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

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© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

2.1.2 Card fraud in developed and emerging economies

This section analyzes card fraud at ATMs and POS terminals in developed markets such as the US, the UK,

France and Japan, as well as in emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil.

Developed economies

The value of card fraud remained the highest in the US, increasing from US$X.XX billion in 2008 to US$X.XX

billion in 2012, after registering a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. It was followed by France whose

card fraud value increased from US$XXX.X million in 2008 to US$XXX.X million in 2012, after increasing at a

CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. In terms of growth, card fraud grew at a rapid pace in Australia at a

CAGR of XX.XX% due to the rapid expansion of online trade. According to a report on e-commerce by the

Australian Communications and Media Authority, XX% of internet users purchased goods or services online

between January and April 2011.

Table 1: Card Fraud in Developed Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CAGR 2008–

2012

US X,XXX.X X,XXX.X X,XXX.X X,XXX.X X,XXX.X X.XX%

UK X,XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X -XX.XX%

France XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X X.XX%

Australia XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XX.XX%

Japan XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XX.X XX.X -X.XX%

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

Figure 3: Card Fraud in Developed Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

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Developing economies

The value of card fraud in China increased from US$XX.X million in 2008 to US$XXX.X million in 2012, at a

CAGR of XX.XX% during the review period. China was followed by Brazil with a card fraud value of

US$XXX.X million while, in terms of growth, Russia gained the second spot with a CAGR of XX.XX%. Card

fraud in China was driven by rising income levels, card penetration and the expansion of online trade. The

revenue generated from e-commerce valued at US$X.X billion in 2011 and the category posted a growth rate

of XX.XX% on an annual basis. With rising e-commerce activities, card not present fraud has witnessed

tremendous growth, despite the decline of card present fraud.

Table 2: Card Fraud in Developing Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CAGR 2008–

2012

China XX.X XX.X XX.X XXX.X XXX.X XX.XX%

Brazil XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X -X.XX%

Russia XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XXX.X XX.XX%

India X.X X.X X.X X.X X.X -X.XX%

© Timetric

Figure 4: Card Fraud in Developing Economies (US$ Million), 2008–2012

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

2020 Foresight: Best Practices in Managing Credit Risk Cycle Page 12

© Timetric. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied Published: April 2013

2.2 Overview of Card Fraud and its Impact

This section of the report provides information on the different types of card fraud and the possible ways a

fraudster engages in them. It discusses fraudulent activities that start from the application stage to

unauthorized purchases at brick and mortar stores, as well as online stores, and includes the various methods

used by fraudsters to steal a person’s identity and other sensitive information. The section also discusses the

levels of impact a fraudulent activity can have on issuers and acquirers, merchants and cardholders, and

explains why the effect is more severe for merchants than for cardholders.

2.2.1 Types of card fraud

This section discusses the various types of fraud associated with credit cards, ranging from application fraud

to card skimming, and from merchant fraud to online fraud.

Identity theft to acquire a valid credit card

Fraudsters generally engage in two types of identity theft:

Application fraud manifests when an applicant provides false information to obtain a credit card. The

fraudster usually assumes the identity of another person to open an account in his or her name on the

basis of information stolen from that person. Some fraudsters also provide false documents which

suggest their income levels to be much higher than the actual income.

Account takeovers happen when a fraudster hijacks an existing account of a genuine customer. This

is done by stealing personal information such as the account number or the credit card number. Once

such information is acquired, the fraudster contacts the card issuer, impersonating the genuine

customer and requests the diversion of mail to a new address. The fraudster then reports the card as

lost and requests a replacement, thereby gaining access.

Once the fraudster gets hold of the card, it is used for both card present and card not present fraud, and the

person whose identity has been compromised finds themselves in trouble, along with the merchant and

issuers due to the litigation and credit loss involved.

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CREDIT CARD FRAUD DYNAMICS

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2.3 Challenges in Managing Credit Card Risks

The major challenges in managing credit card risks can be categorized into three broad sections:

macroeconomic challenges, regulatory challenges and operational challenges. Macroeconomic challenges

represent factors such as weak economic growth and high unemployment rates which affect the financial

abilities of a person. Regulatory challenges are the result of change in rules and regulations and the legal

environment of a country, while operational challenges are associated with the operational structure of the

organization such as policies, infrastructure and investments.

Challenges, as a result of movement in macroeconomic fundamentals and regulatory changes, are external in

nature and a credit card issuer cannot influence them on their own, rather they need to mould themselves

according to the external business environment by adopting innovative solutions to manage risks. However,

operational challenges are part of the internal business structure of the firm and can be dealt with by making

gradual changes to the business structure of the organization.

Figure 5: Key Challenges in Managing Credit Card Risks

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

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EMERGING TRENDS IN MANAGING CREDIT CARD

RISK

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3 Emerging Trends in Managing Credit Card Risk

Risk management for credit cards is an ongoing process as the dynamic nature of its problems requires

continuous efforts and attention. Effort is required at every level of the card payment system, and from every

participant of the value chain, including regulators, card issuers, acquirers (merchant’s bank or a financial

institution which manages merchant’s funds), network providers such as Visa and MasterCard, and

merchants.

Regulators and governments in every major economy are coming up with strict measures to control card fraud

and the issuance of credit cards to high-risk customers such as students, financially dependent persons and

retired people. Regulatory norms have also increased income requirements for the issuance of credit cards

and place an emphasis on increased customer due diligence.

Issuers and acquirers are resorting to behavioral analysis and other methods of screening using powerful

analytical tools to eliminate potential high-risk customers and suspicious activities. In such cases, they now

require financial guarantees before issuing a credit card or resort to credit cards with financial backing or

collateral. Moreover, to reduce their exposure to credit card debts, issuers regularly engage in securitization

credit card receivables to hedge their risk.

Network providers, on the other hand, have come up with Payment Card Industry (PCI) security standards

and are promoting the use of EMV chip and PIN-based credit cards which offer a higher level of protection in

comparison to magnetic stripe-based cards. Merchants are also increasingly adopting POS terminals and

applications which conform to Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI DSS) norms and adding

extra layers of security to protect their websites.

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EMERGING TRENDS IN MANAGING CREDIT CARD

RISK

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3.1 Role of Government and Credit Bureaus in Managing Credit Card Risk

The increasing use of plastic for payment purposes and the rising risks associated with them have attracted

the attention of regulatory authorities around the world. Credit cards, which hold a majority share in the card

industry, are vulnerable to various risks ranging from defaults on payments to card present and card not

present fraud. Governments, credit bureaus and financial institutions have tried to keep fraud under control by

introducing several necessary regulations over the years. Regulations such as the single euro payment area

card framework (SEPA) and the anti-money laundering (AML) regulation have indirectly helped in the

managing of these risks. In this section, some of the emerging trends which, intentionally or unintentionally,

contributed to the management of the credit card risk cycle are discussed.

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EMERGING TRENDS IN MANAGING CREDIT CARD

RISK

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3.2 Trends in Risk Management at Financial Institutions and Service Providers

This section covers emerging trends in the management of credit card risks from the point of view of key

participants of the payment industry, i.e. card issuers, acquirers, network operators and merchants. Over the

past few years, industry participants have adopted and implemented a host of security measures, regulations

and business strategies to lower the chances of fraud and credit losses. The following figure highlights the

adoption levels of some of the risk management strategies in key regions of the world.

Figure 6: Adoption of Risk Management Tools

Source: Timetric analysis © Timetric

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BEST PRACTICE FRAMEWORK IN CREDIT CARD

RISK MANAGEMENT

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4 Best Practice Framework in Credit Card Risk Management

As discussed earlier, the management of risk associated with credit cards requires continuous efforts from

every participant of the card payment industry. However, to do so, development of a best practices framework

is of utmost importance. A well developed framework facilitates in understanding risks and areas which

require attention from the intended parties, and formulate strategies to address them.

A good risk management strategy is likely to include the following points:

Policy development

Adoption and implementation of the policies

Process review at regular intervals

Infrastructure development

The first step in the development of a risk management framework should be development of policies related

to the functioning of the organization and areas that need to be addressed. Once the key risk areas have

been identified, the organization should clearly classify and document them for future reference. This process

will help in understanding the responsibilities and further policies required to tackle the issues.

The next step is to adopt and implement those policies in the organization’s operational structure. This may

require additional training and education of employees, escalating costs in the short term. However, the

increased cost shouldn’t be looked upon as a burden as it is expected to reduce credit losses in the future.

Moreover, every step taken to increase protection can help to stabilize the whole credit card industry.

The third step is to review and update the whole process at regular intervals and, if required, on more frequent

occasions, as demanded by special circumstances. This is an important step given the dynamic nature of the

payment industry and the use of latest technologies by fraudsters. Apart from updating policies, it is also

required to update the organization’s infrastructure so that it remains capable of handling the latest

developments and analyses.

Development of an efficient infrastructure is perhaps the most crucial step in the development of a risk

management framework. It serves as a base for the proper functioning of the whole idea. Development of

infrastructure may include IT setup, data management tools, skilled human resources and analytical

applications.

The current chapter also discusses case studies which explain some of the challenges faced by leading card

issuers and network operators and the practical solutions adopted.

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APPENDIX

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5 Appendix

5.1 Methodology

All Timetric foresight reports are created by following a comprehensive, four-stage methodology. This includes

market study, research, analysis and quality control.

1) Market Study

A. Standardization

Definitions are specified using recognized industry classifications. The same definition is used

for every country.

Annual average currency exchange rates are used for the latest completed year. These are

then applied across both the Review and forecast data to remove exchange rate fluctuations.

B. Internal audit

Review of in-house databases to gather existing data:

­ Historic market databases and reports

­ Company database

C. Trend monitoring

Review of the latest companies and industry trends

2) Research

A. Sources

Collection of the latest market-specific data from a wide variety of industry sources:

­ Government statistics

­ Industry associations

­ Company filings

­ International organizations

­ Regulatory agencies

B. Expert opinion

Collation of opinion taken from leading industry experts

Analysis of third-party opinion and forecasts:

­ Broker reports

­ Media

­ Official government sources

C. Data consolidation and verification

Consolidation of data and opinion to create Review datasets

Creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and regions

3) Analysis

A. Market forecasts

Feeding forecast data into market models:

­ Macroeconomic indicators

­ Industry-specific drivers

Analysis of industry database to identify trends:

­ Latest trends

­ Key drivers of the industry

B. Report writing

Analysis of market data

Discussion of company and industry trends and issues

Review of financial deals and trends

4) Quality Control

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A. Templates

Detailed process manuals

Standardized report templates and accompanying style guides

Complex forecasting tool used to ensure forecast methodologies are consistently applied

Quality-control checklists

B. Quality control process

Peer review

Senior-level QC

Random spot checks on data integrity

Benchmark checks across databases

Market data cross-checked for consistency with accumulated data from:

­ Company filings

­ Government sources.

5.2 Background

Timetric’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with an industry

background in marketing, market research, consulting and advanced statistical expertise.

Timetric adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Society

of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All Timetric databases are continuously updated and revised.

5.3 Contact Us

If you have any queries about this report, or would like any further information, please contact

[email protected].

5.4 About Timetric

Timetric is an independent economic and business research firm that provides critical intelligence on

emerging economies and key global industries. The company offers detailed economic and sector

intelligence, business insights and independent and authoritative commentary.

Underpinning all Timetric’s research services is a belief that data – if gained following the right technologies

and analytic frameworks – can provide unique and powerful economic and business insights.

The Timetric economic and industry intelligence centers are premium decision tools that provide access to

comprehensive research, data and expert analysis. They provide invaluable decision support, presented in an

easily digestible format and grounded in rich, proprietary data and data analysis frameworks.

Each year, Timetric produces hundreds of high-quality research reports across countries, industries and

companies. These reports draw on in-depth primary and secondary research, proprietary data and high-

quality modeling and analysis to give its readers a deep insight into global market dynamics and economic

trends.

Timetric helps its clients to:

Gain an unbiased, expert insight from a genuinely independent and trusted source

Save time in researching, visualizing and comparing economic and industry data

Access the latest and most useful data sets, indices and forecasts

Gain access to a unique methodology for understanding economic trends

Forecast and predict trends more accurately

Economic Research Services

Timetric’s economic research services are founded on three key goals:

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1. To provide the strongest base data:

The most accurate data

The most timely and frequently updated data sets

The best data curation methodologies and standardizations

Unique data sets and forward-looking indicators

Industry-specific, premium data sets

2. To develop the best data analysis frameworks:

Unique economic indices and data analysis frameworks

Forward-looking indicators

Proprietary indices and surveys

Data analysis frameworks, scorecards and models

3. To provide authoritative independent economic insights:

To give a uniquely local perspective on developing markets

Truly expert, independent economic analysis and commentary

Proprietary analysis techniques and frameworks

Unique forecasts

Timetric believes that world-class content delivery should be the enabling factor across all it does. All its

research services follow the principle that data and research should be easy to access, visualize and

consume.

All economic research products are built on the Timetric economic research software platform, which has four

layers:

1. Unique, proprietary aggregation and curation software for pulling together the world’s

data

2. A cloud time-series database filled with top-quality statistics from across the globe

3. Web-delivered search, discovery and research software to allow customized data

searches

4. World-class browser-based display to visualize the data searched

5.5 Disclaimer

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any

means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the

publisher, Timetric.

The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please

note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Timetric delivers will be based on information

gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, the accuracy of which Timetric is not always

in a position to guarantee. Timetric will accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any

information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.