2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario:Travel Model Results

Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory CommitteeApril 14, 2005

Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study

Don McAuslan for Mark MoranMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments

TodScenTravMod2005-04-14.ppt

4/14/05Presentation to the TPB CAC

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TOD Scenario: What is it?

• Land use: TOD land use– Places more of the region’s future household

and job growth around current and planned Metrorail stations, commuter rail stations or other transit centers

– Derived from Round 6.4 land activity forecasts• Transportation network: TOD network

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TOD land use: Households• Assumes a shift of

125,000 households (35% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 5.2% of the total 2030 HHs)

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TOD land use: Jobs• Assumes a shift of

150,000 jobs (19% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 3.6% of the total 2030 employment)

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Transportation network: Fixed guideway improvements

• Heavy rail (Metrorail, commuter rail)• Light rail (LRT)• Bus rapid transit (BRT)• Transitway (indicates BRT or LRT)

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Transportation network: 20053-2-2005

DRAFT

7 0 7 14 Miles

Current Transit Network (2005)Metrorail and Commuter Rail

Metro Lines

Commuter Rail

Major Roads

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Transportation network: 2030 CLRP

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Transportation network: 2030 CLRP+

• CLRP+ assumes no capital improvements, only enhancements to transit service

• Most significant service enhancement: the lifting of the 2005 transit constraint through the DC core

• CLRP+ is the baseline network

3-2-2005

DRAFT

7 0 7 14 Miles

Transit Improvements in the 2030 CLRP+ NetworkCompared to the 2030 CLRP Network

Metro Lines

Commuter Rail

Major Roads

Light Rail

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Transportation network: TOD, Map 1 of 2

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Transportation network: TOD, Map 2 of 2

LRTBIC

LRTBICLRTBIC

LRTC1

LRT6B

LRTC5

LRTC3

LRT6B

LRTC4A/6A

LRT6A/B

LRT6A/B

LRTC3LRTC2

LRTVA1N

LRTC1/C7

LRTCP1

MGRNA

MGRNA

LRTC1/C7

LRTC3

LRTC4A

LRTC7

LRTC1

LRTMD1

LRTC2

LRT6A/B

LRT6A/BLRTC2

LRT201LRTC3

N

Transit Improvements in the 2030 Transit-Oriented Development NetworkCompared to the 2030 CLRP+ Network

Metrorail, Commuter Rail, Light Rail, Bus Rapid TransitMap 2 of 2

3-2-2005

DRAFT

Light Rail

2030 TOD Transit Way Improvements

Metro Lines

Commuter RailMajor Roads

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Map legend: Fixed guideway extensions in TOD network

PROJECT_ID DESCRIPTIONBUSWAY97 MD 97 TransitwayLRT193 MD 193 Greenbelt Rd TransitwayLRT201 MD 201 (Kenilworth Ave.) TransitwayLRT210 MD 210 (Indian Head Hwy) TransitwayLRT270 I-270 TransitwayLRT4 MD 4 (Pennsylvania Ave.) TransitwayLRT50 US 50 John Hanson Hwy TransitwayLRT5301 MD 5/301 LRTLRT6A/B DC LRT Corridor 6A/BLRT6B DC LRT Corridor 6BLRTBIC BiCounty TransitwayLRTC1 DC LRT Corridor 1LRTC1/C7 DC LRT Corridor 1/7LRTC2 DC LRT Corridor 2LRTC3 DC LRT Corridor 3LRTC4A DC LRT Corridor 4ALRTC4A/6A DC LRT Corridor 4A/6ALRTC5 DC LRT Corridor 5LRTC7 DC LRT Corridor 7LRTCP1 Columbia Pike TransitwayLRTMD1 MD 1 (Baltimore Ave.) TransitwayLRTVA1N VA 1 Transitway, NorthLRTVA1S VA 1 Transitway, SouthMGRNA Green Line Metrorail Extension WW BridgeMORNA Orange Line Metrorail Extension W FFXVFAUQMASS VRE Extension to Fauquier Co.VMASS VRE Extension to Haymarket

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2030 CLRP+ vs TOD:Fixed guideway miles

• Fixed guideway miles have increased from 412 to 691 miles (67%), but most of the increase is in the transitway category, which includes BRT/LRT lines that may operate in mixed traffic, separate right-of-way, or a combination of the two.

• Metrorail miles increase by 23% and commuter rail miles by 12%.

Fixed Guideway MilesMetrorail, Commuter rail, Transitway (BRT, LRT)

130

293

19

237

412

691

160

263

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2030 CLRP Plus 2030 Transit Oriented Devel.

Mile

s

Metrorail Commuter Rail Transitw ay (LRT/BRT) Total

Source: rail_link_miles2.xls, staprotp.rpt

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Transit Stations CLRP+ TOD Change

Total Number of Stations 166 431 265

Number of Transit Stations Within a Regional Activity Cluster 109 265 156

Number of Transit Stations Outside a Regional Activity Cluster 57 166 109

Regional Activity Clusters CLRP+ TOD Change

Total Number of Regional Activity Clusters 24 24 ---

Number of Regional Activity Clusters With One or MoreTransit Stations 17 22 5

Number of Regional Activity Clusters Without a Transit Station 7 2 -5

Transit Stations: How many and where?

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TOD model results• Compared to the 2030 CLRP+, the 2030 TOD

scenario results in 109,000 more transit trips per day (7.9% increase)– 58,000 due to TOD network– 51,000 due to TOD land use

• Regional transit mode share goes from 5.7% to 6.3% (a small increase, but the largest increase of all the scenarios tested to date)

• Home-based work mode share goes from 20.5% to 22.1% (again, the highest of any of the scenarios tested to date)

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TOD model results, 2

• VMT drops by about 1% (from 149.8 million to 148.3 million vehicle miles of travel)

• HBW walk and bike trips increased 6.4%, from 253,000 to 270,000

• Carpool commuters: There is a drop of 13,000 daily trips (2.0%)

• AM congestion: the number of AM lane miles with a volume-to-capacity ratio > 1.0 drops by 4.6% (from 2,560 to 2,440 miles)

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Households Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station:2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development,

Higher Household Growth

CLRP+

16%

84%

TOD

27%

73%

Total Households, CLRP+ and TOD: 2.4 Million

Total Households, Higher Household Scenario: 2.6 Million

Higher Household Growth

28%

72%

Inside 1/2-Mile

Outside 1/2-Mile

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Employment Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station:2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, &

Higher Household Growth

CLRP+

36%

64%

TOD

46%

54%

Total Employment in 2030: 4.2 Million

Higher Household Growth

45%

55%

Inside 1/2-Mile

Outside 1/2-Mile

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Acknowledgments• Program Manager: Bob Griffiths• Travel model development and overview: Ron Milone and Jim

Hogan• Network development: Bob Snead, John Bethea, Wanda Hamlin,

Joe Davis, Bill Bacon• Mapping and technical support: Meseret Seifu, Don McAuslan• Travel modeling: Mark Moran

Thank you

Questions?