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24th Sintercafe Coffee Conference
San Jose, Costa RicaNov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. PerezCoffeeNetwork.com
Agenda
• A macroeconomic review of world consumption• Producers Vs importers• What happened in 2008‐09 during the global crisis • World consumption by 2015• The “C” market, Certified stocks, dollar index • Final comments
Global PictureWorld Balance
CoffeeNetwork Estimates (million 60kg bags – national crop years)
-15
15
45
75
105
135
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Production Consumption Balance
Global PictureArabica and Robusta
CoffeeNetwork Estimates (million 60kg bags – national crop years)
30405060708090
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crop year beginning
Mln
bag
s
Arabica Production Arabica ConsumptioRobusta Production Robusta Consumpti
World ConsumptionCoffeeNetwork Estimates
(million 60kg bags – national crop years)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Crop year beginning
Mln
bag
s
Exporters Importers Total
ConsumptionProducing Nations’ Demand Growth
CoffeeNetwork Estimates (million 60kg bags – national crop years)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000/01 2006/07 2010/2011
Brazil India Total
Bigger World Population, Low income
2000 2009
Annual growth
63,377 68,873 0.80%25,604 37,705 415,744 22,599 3.6
104,725 129,078 2.1
World Coffee Consumption:Evolution 2000-2009; in 000s bags
2000 2009
% Annual growth
Traditional Markets 63,377 68,873 0.8Producing countries 25,604 37,705 4.0Emerging markets 15,744 22,599 3.6World total 104,725 129,078 2.1
annual 2000 2009 growth
Total 25604 37705 4.0Brazil 13075 18208 3.4Indonesia 1664 3333 7.2Mexico 1189 2200 6.4Ethiopia 1642 1833 1.1India 938 1573 5.3Others 7096 10558 4.1
World Consumption; Producing countries 2000-09 in 000s 60 kg bags
annual
2000 2009 growth
Total 25604 37705 4.0
Brazil 13075 18208 3.4
Indonesia 1664 3333 7.2
Mexico 1189 2200 6.4
Ethiopia 1642 1833 1.1
India 938 1573 5.3
Others 7096 10558 4.1
Estimated World Consumption for 2009(million 60-kg bags)
Top 10 Consuming Countries in Volume, 2009/10
Top 10 Consuming Countries per capita consumption
Finland 11.9Norway 8.9Iceland 8.9Denmark 7.9Switzerland 7.7Sweden 7.3Germany 6.5Austria 6.4Canada 5.9Slovenia 5.9
World: imports of green coffee by groupPeriod average: 1966-68; 1988-90 and 2006-08
World Consumption: Emerging Markets Evolution
% Annual2000 2009 growth
Total 15744 22500 3.6Russia 1863 3131 5.3Algeria 1779 2066 1.5S. Korea 1246 1551 2.2Ukraine 179 1460 23.4Australia 832 1223 3.9Turkey 291 521 6Croatia 327 366 1.1Tunisia 174 289 5.2
24th Sintercafe Coffee ConferenceSan Jose, Costa Rica; Nov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. PerezCoffeeNetwork.com
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World Real GDP
Source: IMF
Asia and S. America Led Consumption Gains in 2008 - 2010
change in consumption 2008-2010
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Total S. America SE Asia M.East & Af. E. Europe W. Europe N. America
' 000
bag
s
2000 2009
Annual growth
63,377 68,873 0.80%25,604 37,705 415,744 22,599 3.6
104,725 129,078 2.1
World Coffee Consumption:Evolution 2008-2009; in 000s bags
% Annual
2008 2009 growth
Traditional Markets 70364 68873 ‐2.1
Producing countries 36427 37705 3.5
Emerging markets 23591 22500 ‐4.6
World total 130657 129078 ‐1.2
2000 2009
Annual growth
63,377 68,873 0.80%25,604 37,705 415,744 22,599 3.6
104,725 129,078 2.1
World Coffee Consumption:Producing countries 2008-2009; in 000s
bagsChange
2008 2009 %Total 36427 37705 3.5Brazil 17256 18208 3.9Indonesia 3208 3333 3.9Mexico 2050 2200 7.3Ethiopia 1833 1833 0.0India 1518 1573 3.6Others 10292 10558 2.6
2000 2009
Annual growth
63,377 68,873 0.80%25,604 37,705 415,744 22,599 3.6
104,725 129,078 2.1
Emerging markets consumption 2008-2009; in 000s bags
change2008 2009 %
Total 23591 22500 ‐4.6Russia 3716 3131 ‐15.7Algeria 2118 2066 ‐2.4S. Korea 1665 1551 ‐6.8Ukraine 1733 1460 ‐15.7Australia 1145 1223 6.8Turkey 484 521 7.7Croatia 377 366 ‐3.1Tunisia 317 289 ‐9.1
World Vs US Consumptionmillion 60 kg bags
19.55
109.75
19.13
111.7
20.193
113.75
20.97
116.67
20.99
120.00
20.66
122.89
21.03
126.04
21.24
128.62
21.44
129.59
21.65
130.75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10*
US Consumption WorldConsumption
US retail coffee sales, by typeDecaf is 9% of Category
68
11 12 81
010
20
3040
50
60
70
R&GGround
R&G Whole Instant RTD Pods
%Retail sales
Imports into USA2008 2009
2008
20%2%19%
22%
8%
29%
ColombiaCentralsOther WashedBrazilRobustasOther
2009
16%1%22%
27%
8%
26%
ColombiaCentralsOther WashedBrazilRobustasOther
24th Sintercafe Coffee ConferenceSan Jose, Costa Rica; Nov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. PerezCoffeeNetwork.com
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Nestle Kraft Sara Lee Folger Starbucks Tchibo
Roaster/leading manufacturers Groups Worldwide
24th Sintercafe Coffee ConferenceSan Jose, Costa Rica; Nov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. PerezCoffeeNetwork.com
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Folgers Kraft Starbucks Mother Parker
Sara Lee Segafredo S&D Nestle Eight O'Clock Tim Hortons
Leading North American Roasters/Manufacturers; in M 60 kg bags
Brazil vs US Consumption
19.55
14
19.13
14.5
20.193
15
20.97
15.50
20.99
16.50
20.66
17
21.03
17.5
21.24
18
21.44
19
21.6520
0
5
10
15
20
25
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10*
US Consumption Brazil Consumption
Indonesia, third largest producer, big increase in consumption
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.0
M. b
ags
04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10crop years
Production consumption
World Consumption 145M Bags by 2015?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Coffee Consumption 1995‐2015
CRB Commodity Index vs Coffee C
24th Sintercafe Coffee ConferenceSan Jose, Costa Rica; Nov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. PerezCoffeeNetwork.com
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐0
4
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐0
5
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐0
6
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐0
7
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐0
8
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐0
9
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0
Oct‐10
ICE Certified stocks, in 000s 60‐kg bags
US Dollar Index
CONCLUSIONS
24th Sintercafe Coffee Conference
San Jose, Costa Rica; Nov. 12, 2010
By Marvin G. [email protected]
