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25 September 2014
Page | 1 MCI (P) 046/11/2013 Ref. No.: SG2014_0154
Sinarmas Land Limited Rich landbank to underpin earnings growth traction
SINGAPORE | REAL ESTATE | COMPANY NOTE
Rating: BUY
We recently made a 2-day company site visit to two major Sinarmas Land (SML) projects in Jakarta and returned with more confidence on the company’s outlook. The land development sales performance has been optimistic with average selling price improving steadily over the recent years. With greater clarity in the business climate of Indonesia following the denouement of the presidential election, we believe Sinarmas Land will continue to post healthy margins with the positive real estate market outlook as new President Mr Jokowi will likely push for more pro-business policies and infrastructure developments in coming future. In this trip, we visited the 2 major land projects: Kota Deltamas and BSD City. We met up with the General Manager of Sales & Marketing of Kota Deltamas, Mr Stefanus Sehonanda, the Head of Investor Relations of PT Bumi Serpong Damai TbK., Ms Christy Grassela, the Executive Director, Mr Robin Ng, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Mr Ferdinand Sadeli, and Head of Corporate Investment Department, Mr Aswin A. Gunawan. Budding sales growth from the abundant land bank development Kota Deltamas is a mixed-use industrial development project between SML and Sojitz Corp. The accessibility of Kota Deltamas with neighbouring areas coupled with superb infrastructure for industrial estates has resulted in strong demand for the industrial land, with ASP increasing at a 35% CAGR in the past 2 years. As more companies move into the factory premises, the demand will grow for residential units in the surrounding vicinity. The 2014 target yearly sales is estimated to be USD 170mn. BSD City is the flagship development project for SML and covers an area of 6000 ha. Within this space, BSDE would build residential clusters, office buildings and retail malls. BSD City is developed in 3 phases, with the 1st phase (covering 1500 ha) currently near its completion stage. Development for 2nd phase started in mid-2008. Upcoming residential cluster projects include dePark, Greenwich Park, Eminent and Nava Park. BSD City also launched the Green Office Park (25 ha) and secured anchor tenant Unilever Indonesia with 2 office towers. As Jakarta becomes more densely populated and the residential prices in Jakarta escalating, BSD City will benefit from the rising demand of residential properties outside of Jakarta. Returning to Jakarta City SML has recently acquired 3 lots of lands (over 5 ha) in Epicentrum Kuningan in Jakarta City. See Figure 1. One of the larger lots will be for commercial purposes while the balance 2 lots will be used for residential developments. The launch for the first residential project in lot 16 is expected to be in early 2015. SML will likely form joint ventures for the development of the balance 2 projects. The total GDV for the 3 projects is estimated to be USD 2bn. Investment Action We remain positive on the outlook for SML for (1) the potential bottom-line growth with land sales from the huge land bank, (2) solid balance sheet with a strong cash holding and (3) expansion of international portfolio for recurring income. Our rating is BUY with target price $0.97 by previous analyst. The target price may alter with the change of analyst coverage.
Target Price (SGD) 0.97
Forecast Dividend (SGD-cents) 0.50
Closing Price (SGD) 0.645
Potential Upside 51.2%
Company Description
Company Data
Raw Beta (base on listing period to date) 1.45
Market Cap. (USD mn / SGD mn) 1551 / 1962
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 2.0
Closing Px in 52 week range 0.45 0.72
Major Shareholders (%)
65.6
0.4
0.1
Valuation Method
SOTP
Analyst
Caroline Tay
+65 6531 1792
Sinarmas Land Ltd. Invests in, develops and
manage rea l estate. The company owns
commercia l bui ldings , hotel and resorts in
Indones ia , Malays ia , Singapore, UK, China.
1. Flambo Internationa l Ltd
2. Dimens ional Fund Advisors LP
3. Vanguard Group Incorporated
0
5
10
15
20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
May-1
3
Au
g-13
No
v-13
Feb-1
4
May-1
4
Volume, mn SML SP EQUITY STI rebased
0% 50% 100%
1 October 2014
Page | 2
Key Financial Summary
FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F
Revenue (SGD mn) 534 631 985 658 1,046
NPAT, adj. (SGD mn) 89 113 252 105 183
EPS, adj. (SGD) 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06
P/E (X),adj. 22.1 17.4 7.8 18.7 10.7
BVPS (SGD) 0.69 0.76 0.76 0.84 0.97
P/B (X) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
DPS (SGD) 0.29 0.38 0.50 0.50 0.50
Div. Yield (%) 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Source: Company Data, PSR est.
*Forward multiples and yields are based on current price and his torica l
multiples and yields are based on his torica l prices
Figure 1: New land acquisitions in Epicentrum Kuningan , Jakarta City
Source: Company data
1 October 2014
Page | 3
Kota Deltamas On the first day of the trip, we visited Kota Deltasmas in Bekasi which is approximately two hours drive from Central Jakarta. Upon reaching our destination, we met up with the General Manager of Sales & Marketing, Mr Stefanus Sehonanda, who gave us an introduction to the Kota Deltamas project. At the moment, there is one toll exit into Kota Deltamas via exit 37 on Jakarta-Cikampek toll road. Mr Stefanus revealed that SML has applied permission to have another toll exit into Kota Deltamas at about 4km further east of the Jakarta-Cikampek toll road. It will take about 1.5-2 years for the 2nd exit to be operational upon the approval. The Indonesia government has plans to build a second toll road between Jakarta and Bandung, located at the south of Kota Deltamas, to ease the heavy traffic along the current Jakarta-Cikampek toll road. SML intends to have a 3rd access point along this new toll road. The accessibility of Kota Deltamas with neighbouring areas coupled with super infrastructure for industrial estates will continue to attract higher industrial space demand. Kota Deltamas has a total development rights for 3000 ha with completed sales of 1000 ha and remaining 2000 ha land bank as of end 2013. Per our conversation, we understand that over 700 ha of industrial land have been sold and about 20% of the area are in operation. 85% of the industrial land was sold to Japanese Companies. The plants in operations include Suzuki, Mahle, Kyowa Metal Works, Kyokuyo and etc. Kota Deltamas has attracted a number of automotive companies’ interest to set up their plants in the vicinity. A tour around the area gave us a feel of the vast of land bank SML owns. SML will develop the land area with infrastructure like roads and utilities supply. Figure 2 shows a land plot to be developed for the future sale. The average selling price (ASP) for industrial land is USD185/sqm. The management has seen strong demand for the industrial land with ASP increasing at a 35% CAGR from IDR 1200K/sqm in 2012 to USD 185/sqm (IDR 2200K/sqm) in 2014. This indicates the strong potential land sales growth with more companies relocating or expanding manufacturing operations in Indonesia.
Figure 2: An industrial land to be developed for future sale
Source: PSR
Figure 3: Ongoing construction of plant at Kota Deltamas
Source: PSR
1 October 2014
Page | 4
Figure 4: Some companies that are in operations in Kota Deltamas
Source: PSR Though at the moment, there are only 16 residential clusters housing 1800 families in Kota Deltamas, we believe as more companies’ plants and commercial activities commerce operations, the population will increase accordingly, thus driving demand for the residential housing. Mr Stefanus divulged that the residential prices in Kota Deltamas has tripled over the past 3 years and the growth momentum remains strong. The management also aims to launch more commercial land plots in the government center region this year. The 2014 target yearly sales is estimated to be USD 170mn. In additional to land sales, Kota Deltamas will generate recurring income via rental of service apartments, water treatment plant for provision of clean water and management fees. It is estimated to take at least another 8-10 years for the full completion of this mixed-use industrial township.
1 October 2014
Page | 5
BSD City On the second day, we went to SML’s crown jewel BSD City, located at about 30km southwest of Jakarta. BSD City is developed in 3 phases, with the 1st phase (covering 1500 ha) currently near its completion stage. Upon entering the BSD city, we felt the vibrancy of the area and perceived the development progress of the BSD City. There are shophouses, shopping malls, schools and hospitals along the way, providing the amenities to service the community in locality. To date, BSD City has a population of 160,000 and is expected to reach 800,000 by 2025.
Figure 5: Entry into BSD City
Source: PSR
Figure 6: Busy streetview in Phase 1 of BSD City
Source: PSR
We met with the Head of Investor Relations of PT Bumi Serpong Damai TbK., Ms Christy Grassela at Sinarmas Land Plaza in the Green Office Park. Green Office Park is part of the phase 2 development and encompasses a land area of 25 ha. Sinarmas Land had moved the headquarters from Jakarta to BSD City when Sinarmas Land Plaza BSD City was completed in 2011. The second office tower, which is currently under construction with expected completion date in end 2014, will be managed by BSDE for recurring income. The business park has been awarded with Green Mark Gold Award from the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) Singapore and Asia Pacific Property Award. The Green Office Park eco-friendly practices for energy conservation and efficiency has secured Unilever Indonesia as the anchor tenant to take up 2 out of the planned 10 low-rise, low density office towers in the business park.
Figure 7: Sinarmas Land Plaza BSD City, Sinarmas Land’s Headquarter
Source: PSR
Figure 8: Second office tower for lease under construction
Source: PSR
1 October 2014
Page | 6
Moving across the Sinarmas Land Plaza is the newly completed open air concept lifestyle center, The Breeze BSD City. The mall is made up of several buildings where some restaurant tenants occupy a building individually while smaller tenants share the retail space in a building. Approximately 80% of the stores are eateries with balance 20% are leased to electronics shops, a fitness and entertainment center and etc. We can find Singapore eateries like Sushi Tei and OldTown White Coffee in the mall. Currently 40% of the stores are operational while another 40% are under renovations. Visitors can immerse in the atmosphere of alfresco dining while enjoying the Cisadane natural river view. The Breeze mall aims to cater to the future office crowd in the Green Office Park and BSD City residents.
Figure 9: Single tenant leasing an individual building
Source: PSR
Figure 10: Multiple tenants in a retail building
Source: PSR
Figure 11: Singapore brand eatery in the Breeze BSD City
Source: PSR
1 October 2014
Page | 7
We have also took a tour to view the sites for the 3 joint venture projects. (1) AEON Retail Mall (JV with AEON Japan, BSD stake 33%) has a GFA of 125,000 sqm with approximately 190 tenants. The target opening is to be in 2015.
Figure 12: Construction of AEON Mall BSD City
Source: PSR (2) Indonesia International Exhibition (JV with Kompass Gramedia Group, BSD stake 49%) is the largest convention hall in Indonesia with a GFA of 200,000 sqm and its target opening to be in end 2014.
Figure 13: Construction of Indonesia International Exhibition
Source: PSR (3) Nava Park is a JV residential project with Hongkong Land to develop 67 ha of land over several phases which include landed, low and mid-rise housing targeted at the mid-high income segment. BSDE will be launching the first phase of 69 landed units soon and the management has revealed that the response has been very encouraging. The project is expected to take 7-8 years for completion. As Jakarta becomes more densely populated and the residential prices in Jakarta escalating, there has been an increased demand for properties in Jakarta outskirts. BSD City is easily accessible via Jakarta Outer Ring Road – Jakarta-Serpong Toll Road, Jakarta-Merak Toll Road and by Jabodetabek’s rail network into CBD area. There are further plans to build (1) the Serpong-Balaraja toll road to connect Serpong to the Jakarta international airport and (2) a connection between a new inner ring road in CBD and BSD City. The infrastructure network and increased accessibility of BSD City will further appeal to the investors. The remaining 2750 ha land bank on hand is sufficient to last another 25 years of development. The 2014 target yearly sales is estimated to be USD 500mn.
1 October 2014
Page | 8
Figure 14: SOTP Valuation & Target Price Valuation
BSDE 2,446.51 c.30% disocunt to RNAV of IDR 3480/share
Office 165 -
Commercial 35 -
Hotel 37 -
JV projects 292 -
Land (excluding those under BSDE) 620 -
Others 28 -
Malaysia 192 -
Singapore 180 -
London 224 -
China 40 -
4,259
Add: Cash 487
Less: Debt -453.154
4293
Outstanding shares 3,042
Warrants proceeds 152
Shares if diluted 1,521
Target Price 0.97
Indonesia
Oth
ers
Source: PSR estimates
1 October 2014
Page | 9
FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F
Revenue 534 631 985 658 1,046 Investment properties 187 160 535 690 890
EBITDA 169 229 520 273 458 Properties under development for sa le740 1,047 859 859 859
Depreciation & Amortisation (17) (18) (17) (26) (33) Associated companies 452 532 592 592 592
EBIT 151 211 503 247 426 Others 407 391 273 382 487
Net Finance (Expense)/Inc 8 11 8 (10) (7) Total non-current assets 1,787 2,130 2,260 2,524 2,829
Other i tems 16 (21) 44 0 0 Cash and cash equiva lent 629 654 688 487 672
Associates & JVs 18 46 (42) 7 7 Receivables 12 11 12 12 19
Exceptional i tems 0 22 12 0 0 Current restricted cash 0 0 0 0 0
Profit Before Tax 193 269 524 244 425 Others 522 601 600 508 590
Taxation (27) (36) (59) (34) (60) Total current assets 1,163 1,266 1,300 1,007 1,281
Profit After Tax 167 232 465 210 366 Total Assets 2,950 3,396 3,559 3,531 4,109
Non-control l ing Interest (78) (120) (213) (105) (183) Loans and borrowings 6 2 136 2 78
Net Income, reported 89 113 252 105 183 Current trade payables 20 33 19 23 35
Net Income, adj. 89 113 252 105 183 Bond payables 70 28 0 0 0
Others 324 340 380 304 413
Total current liabilities 420 403 535 330 527
FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F Long term loans 110 107 194 142 114
Others 326 568 510 510 510
EPS, reported 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06 Total non-current liabilities 436 674 705 652 624
EPS, adj. 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06 Non-control l ing interest 637 824 837 837 837
DPS (SGD Cents) 0.29 0.38 0.50 0.50 0.50 Shareholder Equity 1,457 1,495 1,483 1,712 2,122
BVPS 0.69 0.76 0.76 0.84 0.97
FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F
CFO P/E (X), adj. 22.1 17.4 7.8 18.7 10.7
PBT 193 269 524 244 425 P/B (X) 0.94 0.85 0.85 0.77 0.66
Adjustments (18) 6 15 26 33 EV/EBITDA (X), adj. 20.1 14.8 6.5 12.4 7.4
WC changes 123 67 (151) 55 92 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Cash generated from ops 298 342 389 324 550 Growth & Margins (%)
Others (26) (33) (51) (34) (60) Growth
Cashflow from ops 271 309 338 290 490 Revenue 26.4% 18.1% 56.0% -33.2% 59.1%
CFI EBITDA 7.9% 35.6% 127.4% -47.5% 68.1%
CAPEX, net (28) (13) (9) (17) (13) EBIT 22.7% 39.3% 138.3% -50.8% 72.1%
Others (83) (266) (517) (273) (325) Net Income, adj. -66.2% 26.8% 124.1% -58.4% 74.1%
Cashflow from investments (111) (279) (527) (290) (338) Margins
CFF EBITDA margin 31.5% 36.2% 52.8% 41.5% 43.8%
Share i ssuance 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT margin 28.3% 33.4% 51.0% 37.6% 40.7%
Loans , net of repayments (4) (6) 223 (186) 48 Net Profi t Margin 31.2% 36.8% 47.2% 31.9% 34.9%
Dividends (8) (24) (39) (15) (15) Key Ratios
Others (90) 65 123 0 0 ROE (%) 6.3% 7.6% 17.0% 6.6% 9.5%
Cashflow from financing (101) 34 306 (201) 32 ROA (%) 3.1% 3.6% 7.3% 3.0% 4.8%
Net change in cash 59 64 117 (200) 185
Effects of exchange rates 3 (40) (136) 0 0 Net Debt/(Cash) (513) (545) (358) (343) (480)
CCE, end 628 652 688 487 672 Net Gearing (X) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash
Source: Company Data, PSR est
Income Statement (SGD mn)
Per share data (SGD)
Cashflow Statements (SGD mn)
Balance Sheet (SGD mn)
Valuation Ratios
1 October 2014
Page | 10
Total Returns Recommendation Rating> +20% Buy 1+5% to +20% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutra l 3-5% to -20% Reduce 4<-20% Sel l 5
Ratings History
PSR Rating System
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quanti tative
return bands . We cons ider qual i tative factors l ike (but not l imited to) a s tock's
ri sk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation,
presence or absence of s tock price catalysts , and speculative undertones
surrounding the s tock, before making our fina l recommendation
1 2 3 4 5
0.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.001.051.10
Jul-1
3A
ug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb-1
4M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-14
No
v-14
De
c-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-15
Jun
-15
Jul-1
5A
ug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5
Source: Bloomberg, PSRMarket Price
Target Price
1 October 2014
Page | 11
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Page | 12
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