27 October 2016 Jyske Bank Buy - Privat - Danske Bank · PDF file3 | Jyske Bank Buy y. Results review Jyske Bank delivered an overall mixed set of numbers with weak income, especially

1 | Jyske Bank Buy www.danskemarketsequities.com

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Equity Research

Investment Research

27 October 2016

Jyske Bank Buy

(Unchanged)

Still on the right track for 2018E delivery

Banks, Denmark

Key data

Price performance

1M 3M 12M 5Y

Source: FactSet

Estimate changes 16E 17E 18E

Source: Danske Bank Markets estimates

Price as at close 27 October 2016

† Includes dividends

Jyske Bank’s Q3 16 was a miss on NII, partly from technicalities, but the

underlying case in our view remains largely intact. Building the platform for

solid 2018E delivery, we expect the Jyske Bank share to regain momentum in

coming quarters. The cheapest P/E 18E (9.0x) in the Nordics and the highest

growth is attractive in our view – we reiterate Buy but lower 12M TP to DKK365.

Impact on investment case. While Jyske Bank’s Q3 16 was a miss on important

lines, the case in our view is intact. Jyske Bank is building for a strong 2018E and

with 9.1% ROE (‘18E) we expect the BVPS (‘17E) of DKK391 to get closer.

Fee income was as expected in Q3 and we expect the bank to introduce new

general fees for residential customers from 2017. Jyske should have an edge

here considering its pro-bono mortgage transfers and lowest mortgage margins.

Jyske Bank has exited the bank sector’s mobile payment solution Swipp which

should save Jyske Bank DKK10m/qtr in costs from Q4 17E and onwards. Adding

good potential for cost containment and this leaves a solid cost outlook for 2018E

Estimate changes. NII momentum was weak in Q3 16 but this was partly from

non-customer activities and technicalities. As the first Danish bank to introduce

negative deposit rates for all corporate on-demand deposits from December,

this should mean a DKK60-80m NII tailwind for 2017E. We still expect good NII

growth but have lowered NII estimates by c.2% for 2017E and 2018E.

Valuation. At a P/E 18E of 9.0x, the cheapest in the Nordics for a bank with very

strong growth momentum, we find Jyske Bank still attractive. We reiterate Buy but

cut our 12-month target price to DKK365 (DKK375).

Key financials

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 18 of this report.

Post-results note

Price (DKK)* 324

Target price, 12 mth (DKK) † 365

Previous 12M target price (DKK) † 375

Market cap (DKKm) 30,673

Market cap (EURm) 4,124

Reuters JYSK.CO

Bloomberg JYSK DC

No. of shares (m) 94.7

Free float 75.0%

Avg. daily vol, 12M (000) 292.2

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16

JYSK.CO STOXX 600/Banks rebased

Absolute 6% 19% -8% 109%

Rel. local market 5% 25% -5% -9%

Rel. EU sector -4% 4% 19% 104%

NII -2.2% -2.1% -2.1%

PPP -2.6% -3.8% -2.6%

EPS (adj.) 0.4% -4.1% -2.1%

Next event

Q4 25-Feb

Year-end Dec (DKK) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

NII (m) 5,315 5,886 5,718 6,073 6,419

Lending growth 175.4% 9.5% 6.0% 7.2% 5.1%

Total revenues (m) 10,186 8,433 8,189 8,397 8,832

Pre-provision profits (PPP) (m) 4,955 3,111 3,130 3,382 3,881

PPP growth 81.1% -37.2% 0.6% 8.0% 14.7%

Loan losses (m) -1,953 -347 -175 -166 -176

PTP (m) 3,103 3,204 3,236 3,466 3,955

EPS (adj.) 14.2 22.3 26.0 29.1 36.0

DPS 0.00 5.25 5.50 6.00 8.38

Dividend yield 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.6%

C/I 51.4% 63.1% 61.8% 59.7% 56.1%

PPP/avg. lending 2.01% 0.82% 0.77% 0.78% 0.84%

Loan loss ratio 0.79% 0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

Equity tier-1 ratio 15.3 16.1 16.0 15.4 15.0

RoNTA 5.8% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 8.8%

P/E (adj.) (x) 22.0 14.0 12.4 11.1 9.0

P/NTA 1.08 0.99 0.91 0.83 0.75

Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates

Analyst(s)

Asbjørn Nicholas Mørk

+45 45 12 80 51

[email protected]

Matti Ahokas

+358 10 236 4743

[email protected]


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Investment case

In our view Jyske Bank will be a relative winner in the improved Danish mortgage

market. It stands to harvest the most tailwinds in our base case (+6.6% on NII and

+11.1% on net profits) from the trend of better mortgage NII. This is a clear contrast to

e.g. Sydbank which faces the toughest headwinds in our view (1.7% to NII and 2.2% to

net profits).

Two and a half years into the BRF acquisition story we think it is time to revisit the

investment case. The BRF acquisition in our view is a 5-year strategy, moving Jyske

Bank from a mid-cap regional bank to a large-cap Danish banking powerhouse.

In our view the Jyske Bank investment case has improved significantly in recent years:

The mortgage book is now not growing at the expense of the bank book, meaning

that cannibalisation is now not an issue, as it was in 2014 and 2015.

Credit quality is solid and with better agriculture and continued improved housing

market Jyske Bank’s loan losses should be low for years to come, in our view.

The issuance of DKK1.5bn of Additional Tier-1 capital in September 2016 opens

the yield case further; it allows the CET-1 to decline to around 14.5% on S&P’s

capital model.

The swap rate has now reached a level where we would expect it to have a positive

impact on future reported earnings, or at least not an adverse impact.

As stability in reported earnings improves we expect investors to factor in the low-

risk mortgage book in Jyske Bank more than is the case today. With an ROE (‘18E)

of 9.1%, we believe that Jyske Bank should trade at a premium to book value, not

at a discount, leaving around 15% share price upside in the coming 12 months.

Valuation and methodology for deriving 12M target price

We value Jyske Bank using a capital and credit risk adjusted valuation approach. With

this approach we derive the underlying true profitability of the bank and apply a fair

P/NAV multiple on the required equity base using Gordon’s growth. Subsequently, we

add excess capital at book value. We apply a 14.5% long-term CET-1 ratio for Jyske

Bank and 16bp normalised loan loss provisions.

We back-up our capital and credit risk adjusted valuation using a peer group comparing

banks on actual and normalised earnings multiples.

Risks to achievement of 12M target price

We factor in mortgage repricing in BRF, as we argue the upside potential from doing so

is solid. However, a lack of repricing could be a negative risk to our current base. Other

downside risks include continued deterioration in Danish bank margins, which have

been under significant pressure in 2015 and 2016.

Fee income has been weak in 2016 as the bank is not charging lending fees to new

mortgage customers. The CEO has said that these fees will be reintroduced from 2017,

leaving both us and the market expecting a rebound in total fee income. A new miss on

the fee income line would be an incremental negative risk. Costs are expected to come

down in the coming years as the BRF integration synergies are harvested. In 2015,

DKK550m of the total DKK600m of annual expected synergies had been harvested but

failure to deliver the last DKK50m or to retain the synergy level could be a downside

risk as well.


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Results review

Jyske Bank delivered an overall mixed set of numbers with weak income, especially

from weak NII, which has seen a continued drain. NII however was negatively impacted

by DKK20m of one-offs while continued funding roll-over in the liquidity book also had

an incremental DKK20m adverse effect.

Commission income was largely in line, while underlying trading income (adjusted for

basis swap and credit adjustments) was better.

Costs were affected by DKK10m from the exit of Swipp (see below) while loan losses

came in at DKK77m (8bp) due to a DKK112m impairment in the agricultural book.

Own portfolio income was very strong at DKK258m leading to a 12.5% beat of

consensus on net profits.

Table 1. Q3 16 deviation table

Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets, SME Direkt consensus, per share data in DKK, total lending in

DKKbn

NII still soft but mainly from technicalities

NII came in very low at DKK1,393m or 5% short of consensus expectations. However

the main reason was two negative factors in the quarter. First a DKK20m negative

impact relating to changed accrual of front-end fees, which should be seen as a one-

off impact. Hence underlying NII was DKK1,413m – still a low number (3.9% short of

consensus) but less disastrous than at first glance.

The second NII impact came from the fact that unlike peers, Jyske Bank books part of

liquidity portfolio NII under core NII. The reduction of high-yield bonds in the

trading/liquidity portfolio resulted in lower net interest income, which caused a DKK20m

impact for the quarter. While this should be seen as recurring, it does not relate to

underlying NII development from customer activities, and on the contrary it means that

Jyske Bank faces less headwind on own portfolio income than peers.

Mortgage NII grew to DKK451m from DKK444m in Q2 but with 3.7% higher volumes

Q/Q. But other NII within mortgage activities, which relates to capital and funding has

tough comparisons Q/Q and hence faced DKK16m headwinds Q/Q. All things being

equal this means that Q4 16E NII development should see much better trends.

Gro wth Gro wth

D KKm Q3 16A Q3 15 Y/ Y Q2 16 Q/ Q Q3 16 Q3 16

Core net interest income 1,393 1,478 -5.8% 1,448 -3.8% 1,469 -76 -5.2% 1,470 -77 -5.2%

Core net commission 363 372 -2.4% 343 5.8% 365 -2 -0.5% 362 1 0.3%

Core net interest and commisions 1,756 1,850 -5.1% 1,791 -2.0% 1,834 -78 -4.3% 1,832 -76 -4.1%

Core capital gains 170 -229 - 169 0.6% 88 82 86 84

Core banking other income 48 60 -20.0% 73 -34.2% 62 -14 -22.1%

Core earnings, opearational leasing 21 22 -4.5% 28 -25.0% 25 -4 26.6% - -

Total core income 1,995 1,703 17.1% 2,061 -3.2% 2,009 -14 -0.7% 2,002 -7 -0.3%

Core banking costs -1,275 -1,321 -3.5% -1,230 3.7% -1,263 -12 -3.4% -1,248 -27 2.2%

Core earnings before loan losses 720 382 88.5% 831 -13.4% 746 -26 -3.5% 754 -34 -4.5%

Core loan loss provisions -77 -30 156.7% 105 - -27 -50 189.3% -40 -37 94.4%

Core earnings after loan losses 643 352 82.7% 936 -31.3% 719 -76 -10.6% 715 -72 -10.1%

Profit from own porfto lio 258 -26 - 88 193% 80 178 222.5% 115 143 124.3%

Net Extraordinary 0 - 0 - 0 0 - - -

Pretax profits 901 326 176.4% 1,024 -12.0% 799 102 12.7% 825 76 9.2%

Tax -180 -76 136.8% -215 -16.3% -176 -4 2.4% -184 4 -2.2%

M inority interests - - - - 7- 7 - -

Net profits 721 250 188.4% 809 -10.9% 616 105 17.0% 641 80 12.5%

EPS, net profits 7.88 2.63 199.4% 8.68 -9.3% 6.73 1.15 17.0% 6.75 1.1 16.7%

CET-1 ratio 15.9% 15.8% 0.1% 15.8% 0.1% 15.9% 0.0% -0.3% 15.9% 0.0%

Cost/income 63.9% 77.6% 59.7% 62.9% 62.3%

Net loan loss ratio 0.08% 0.03% -0.10% 0.03% 0.04%

Total lending 410.3 380.5 7.8% 406.9 0.8% 417.0 -7 -1.6% - - -

D ifference D ifference

D B M E C o nsensus


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Bank NII declined to DKK838m from DKK886m in Q2 despite of better volume

development. If we adjust for the twofold DKK20m impact as described above, the

underlying NII would have been DKK878m, or 1% lower Q/Q, hence Jyske Bank’s bank

NII is still declining but less than in previous quarters.

Adjusting the mortgage NII and NII from priority loans the underlying core NII was

DKK936m versus DKK979m in Q2.

Chart 1. NII composition


The underlying bank business is seeing somewhat better volume momentum, which

now looks like a sustainable shift in trend and, while total volumes declined, it was due

to DKK4.4bn of lower repo loans.

Chart 2. Underlying bank book development


NII momentum has definitely been soft in Q3 16 but, to a large extent, this was not

caused by customer activity items, in our view. We still expect good NII development

for the coming years, owing to strong mortgage volume growth and repricing in the

mortgage sector.

Total mortgage loans transferred from Totalkredit now stand at DKK76bn versus

DKK73.9bn at 30 September 2016, hence growth has continued into Q4 16E.

1,025 1,043 1,079 985 950 1,002 1,018 1,013 976 979 936 931

5 11 15 25 30 29 26 21 21 20 22 26

268372

390 406 418 431 432 434 444 451 4630

060 25

0 0 0 9614 0

-20

3

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q416E

DK

Km

Underlying traditional Jyske Bank NII Jyske priority loans - estimated NIIMortgage - NII One-off NII

110,6

67

108,7

78

107,5

92

10

5,5

57

102,3

31

100,0

64

96,8

66

95,7

06

93,2

15

93,8

11

96,4

54

93,9

84

93,7

49

3.92%

3.82%

3.89%

4.06%

3.82% 3.85%

4.15%

4.22%

4.31%

4.18%

4.08%

3.96%

3.95%

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.0%

4.1%

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q116

Q216

Q316

Q416E

DK

Km

Lending, traditional bank Traditional Jyske Bank, NIM


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Jyske Bank is to introduce negate rates for all corporate on-demand deposits from

December 2016 (40bps for regular on-demand and 20bps negative for 35day lock-up

deposits). It should, all things being equal, add DKK60-80m to NII annually.

Table 2. Group NII development (DKKm)


Fee income – general repricing on the horizon?

Fee and commission income was DKK363m in Q3, which was as expected. The big

question remains whether Jyske Bank will reintroduce mortgage fees from 1 January

2017. If it does not, it should be due a continued high volume growth situation paving

the way for a strategic decision to try and take more market share. It would however

leave a negative spill-over for other banks and we would not see it as a Jyske Bank

specific income pressure. The pro-bono mortgage transfers costs c.DKK70m/year.

However according to management Jyske Bank will look further into repricing on the

general fee structure for residential customers, namely internet banking access and

card fees in an attempt to compensate for negative rates not being transferred to this

segment. Jyske Bank should be in a good position here, as it does not charge mortgage

transfer fees and has the lowest mortgage margins, hence raising the general fee

structure should be manageable.

Table 3. Commission and fee income composite, DKKm


Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 E 2 0 15 2 0 16 E 2 0 17 E 2 0 18 E

Underlying traditional Jyske Bank NII 1,025 1,043 1,079 985 950 1,002 1,018 1,013 976 979 936 931 3,983 3,822 3,845 3,903

Mortgage - NII - 268 372 390 406 418 431 432 434 444 451 463 1,687 1,792 2,091 2,365

Jyske priority loans - estimated NII 5 11 15 25 30 29 26 21 21 20 22 26 106 89 124 137

Repo NII, estimated 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 5 4 3 15 18 14 14

One- off NII - - 60 25 - - - 96 14 - (20) 3 96 (3) - -

Core ne t inte re st inc ome 1,0 3 3 1,3 2 5 1,5 2 9 1,4 2 8 1,3 8 9 1,4 5 2 1,4 7 8 1,5 6 7 1,4 5 0 1,4 4 8 1,3 9 3 1,4 2 7 5 ,8 8 6 5 ,7 18 6 ,0 7 3 6 ,4 19

Traditional Jyske Bank, NIM 3.82% 3.89% 4.06% 3.82% 3.85% 4.15% 4.22% 4.31% 4.18% 4.08% 3.96% 3.95% 4.27% 4.08% 4.02% 4.00%

Mortgage - NIM 0.72% 0.77% 0.68% 0.71% 0.72% 0.72% 0.71% 0.69% 0.68% 0.67% 0.65% 0.65% 0.69% 0.67% 0.70% 0.74%

Jyske Bank - priority loans margin 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.72% 0.70% 0.70% 0.72% 0.60% 0.65% 0.78% 0.80%

Repo NIM, estimated 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

NII / avg lending & deposit 1.93% 1.80% 1.54% 1.61% 1.53% 1.59% 1.48% 1.11% 1.29% 1.29% 1.20% 1.09% 1.40% 1.17% 1.09% 1.12%

Lending growth, bank - 1.7% - 1.1% - 1.9% - 3.1% - 2.2% - 3.2% - 1.2% - 2.6% 0.6% 2.8% - 2.6% - 0.3% - 8.9% 0.6% 2.0% 2.0%

Lending growth, mortgage 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% 2.0% 3.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0% 14.0% 13.7% 9.3% 6.1%

Lending growth, priority loans, bank 1304.5% 31.8% 44.1% 51.3% 3.9% - 9.7% - 16.2% - 15.8% - 6.3% 1.3% 22.4% 10.0% - 33.8% 27.9% 8.2% 6.1%

Commission income Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16E 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Trading and custody 226 263 269 441 380 308 294 395 246 250 283 403 1,377 1,182 1,241 1,303

Payments 44 46 46 41 42 44 49 47 43 75 48 49 182 215 223 232

Lending 33 40 62 125 79 79 65 87 63 71 73 80 310 287 373 388

Guarantees 94 22 25 37 108 29 18 26 19 38 20 27 181 104 107 109

Others 93 55 45 95 116 - 9 38 51 57 21 48 48 196 174 183 187

Paid fees - 67 - 75 - 88 - 113 - 109 - 100 - 93 - 112 - 105 - 113 - 110 - 116 - 414 - 444 - 455 - 464

Core net commission 424 351 360 626 617 350 372 495 324 343 363 492 1,834 1,522 1,677 1,759

growth y/y - 2.5% - 17.2% - 1.9% 24.0% 45.5% - 0.3% 3.3% - 20.9% - 47.5% - 2.0% - 2.4% - 0.6% 4.1% - 17.0% 10.2% 4.9%


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Chart 3. Commission income development

Chart 4. Lending fee development



Trading income

Reported core trading income was DKK170m in the quarter and trading income

benefitted significantly from higher market activity in the quarter and mainly from good

development in equity markets, where the Nordjyske ownership stake contributed

DKK70m. Forex also had a good quarter.

Table 4. Trading/capital gains (DKKm)

Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets

Swap rate adjustments on agricultural clients and credit adjustments on swap

customers had a net DKK4m impact on trading income versus DKK170m reported

trading income. This leaves underlying trading income at DKK166m in the quarter.

Since Q1 13 underlying trading income has averaged DKK48m per quarter.

Table 5. Underlying trading income


435

424

367 5

05

424

351

360

626

617

350

372 495

324

343

363 4

92

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1

13

Q2 1

3

Q3 1

3

Q4 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q2 1

4

Q3 1

4

Q4 1

4

Q1

15

Q2

15

Q3

15

Q4

15

Q1

16

Q2

16

Q3

16

Q4 1

6E

DK

Km

44 49

41

64

33 40

62

125

79

79

65

87

63 71 73 80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q1 1

3

Q2 1

3

Q3 1

3

Q4 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q2 1

4

Q3 1

4

Q4 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q2 1

5

Q3 1

5

Q4 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q2 1

6

Q3 1

6

Q4 1

6E

DK

Km

Trading/Capita l ga ins Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

Loans and amounts owed at

fair value

0 0 0 0 0 635 572 - 378 - 5 - 2,870 - 897 - 1,041 - 46 3,916 609

Capital gains from bonds 34 - 156 6 - 17 165 35 - 1,534 23 362 - 312 3,417 1,116 186 290 - 4,610

Capital gains from shares 27 26 71 137 228 18 238 42 206 25 15 61 - 97 12 214

Value adj. of mortgage deeds

etc.

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Forex 141 49 25 26 66 30 104 67 240 25 5 45 111 95 90

Derivatives - 71 168 39 - 76 - 238 - 315 - 118 - 355 - 897 1,006 150 75 - 211 - 133 8

Other, incl. BRF 23 64 - 80 105 4 - 658 722 - 6 - 2 2,656 - 3,179 - 10 0 - 4,013 4,030

Other (extraordinary) and BRF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capita l ga ins 154 151 6 1 175 2 2 5 - 255 - 16 - 607 - 96 5 3 0 - 489 2 4 6 - 57 167 3 4 1

Non- core gains - 62 - 13 5 - 61 - 42 148 148 357 - 3 67 260 - 134 267 2 - 171

Core capita l ga ins 9 2 138 6 6 114 183 - 107 132 - 250 - 99 5 9 7 - 229 112 210 169 170

DKKmQ1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

Average Q1 13-

Q3 16

Reported trading 92 138 66 114 183 - 107 132 - 250 - 99 597 - 229 112 210 169 170 87

SWAP impact 59 113 53 24 - 128 - 164 - 63 - 186 - 299 595 - 64 66 - 227 - 68 4 - 19

Other one- offs 0 0 0 0 221 - 51 246 73 0 0 - 86 0 416 40 0 57

Underlying trading income 33 25 13 90 90 108 - 51 - 137 200 2 - 79 46 21 197 166 48


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Costs high from high activity

Core costs came in at DKK1,275m but included DKK10m extraordinary from the exit of

mobile payment solution company Swipp. Also costs for Q3 16 were negatively

impacted by very high mortgage activity, hence we would expect costs to come down

from here. Jyske Bank has an 11-month notice period to exit Swipp and hence Q4 17E

and onwards should see DKK10m/Q in cost savings from the Swipp exit. Will Jyske

Bank enter the Mobilepay solution from Danske Bank? We would expect so, and at a

much lower cost, leaving good cost synergies for 2018E.

Table 6. Jyske Bank cost development


Strong credit quality on all but agriculture

Jyske Bank booked DKK77m (8bp) of loan loss provisions in the quarter. While

agriculture continued to cause provisions (DKK112m), Jyske Bank benefitted from

reversals in the general bank book (DKK34m) while the mortgage book had DKK1m of

reversals.

Table 7. Jyske Bank group loan loss provisions development


In the agricultural book especially milk producers caused high provisions (DKK86m).

We understand from management that the provisions are done using SEGES estimates

for economic conditions for farmers. Hence we would expect provisions to come down

in coming quarters, once higher milk prices (global dairy milk prices up 28% in 6

months) feed through to SEGES estimates.

Costs (DKKm) Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 E 2 0 14 2 0 15 2 0 16 E 2 0 17 E 2 0 18 E

Staff costs 660 766 764 830 774 776 768 732 755 765 758 721 3,020 3,050 2,999 2,960 2,927

IT costs 262 273 271 294 296 295 272 347 298 296 289 349 1,100 1,210 1,232 1,244 1,250

Ohter costs (extraordinary) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 10 - 40

Rent of premises 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other administrative costs 162 193 198 8 247 133 194 - 23 202 156 38 115 561 551 511 521 524

Other costs 90 113 43 182 0 71 65 262 0 0 0 0 428 398 0 0 0

Depric iations 88 137 95 104 101 99 108 148 119 126 136 149 424 456 530 541 544

Total costs 1,262 1,482 1,371 1,418 1,418 1,374 1,407 1,466 1,374 1,343 1,221 1,334 5,533 5,665 5,272 5,256 5,205

non- core costs - 77 - 74 - 74 - 77 - 80 - 80 - 86 - 97 - 106 - 113 54 - 49 - 302 - 343 - 214 - 242 - 255

Core banking costs 1,185 1,408 1,297 1,341 1,338 1,294 1,321 1,369 1,268 1,230 1,275 1,285 5,231 5,322 5,058 5,015 4,951

One- off costs 75 142 75 - 79 15 16 16 64 0 0 10 0 213 111 10 0 0

Underlying core costs 1,110 1,266 1,222 1,420 1,323 1,278 1,305 1,305 1,268 1,230 1,265 1,285 5,018 5,211 5,048 5,015 4,951

growth Y/Y - ynderlying - 7.7% 19.7% 13.9% 25.1% 19.2% 0.9% 6.8% - 8.1% - 4.2% - 3.8% - 3.1% - 1.5% 12.3% 3.8% - 3.1% - 0.7% - 1.3%

DKKm Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

Loan losses, bank and leasing - 319 279 - 63 223 - 26 213 34

Loan losses, mortgage - 76 28 27 - 82 35 - 16 1

Loan losses agriculture 68 - 331 6 - 107 - 181 - 92 - 112

Core loan loss provisions - 327 - 24 - 30 34 - 172 105 - 77


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Table 8. Jyske Bank AS - agricultural provisions and exposure


Jyske Bank remains one of the best provisioned banks on agriculture in Denmark and

at Q2 16 the total coverage, including early provisions was 29.5% of total exposure,

well above Sydbank and Spar Nord.

DKKm Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

Loan loss provisions

- Fishing 0 0 0 - 1 1 - 2 1

- Milk producers - 40 160 - 3 36 51 66 86

- Plant farming 12 11 - 6 8 16 20 20

- Pig breeding - 47 151 - 8 58 71 9 1

- Other agriculture 7 9 11 6 42 - 1 4

Agricultural provisions, individual and collective - 68 331 - 6 107 181 92 112

Lending

- Fishing 1,561 1,567 1,631 1,624 1,425 1,385 1,343

- Milk producers 1,264 1,244 1,130 1,016 876 870 836

- Plant farming 1,645 1,620 1,701 1,591 1,565 1,585 1,618

- Pig breeding 1,613 1,547 1,596 1,237 1,197 1,391 1,289

- Other agriculture 1,090 1,054 1,125 1,078 1,060 1,066 1,013

Lending 7,173 7,032 7,183 6,546 6,123 6,297 6,099

Coverage ratio

- Fishing 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

- Milk producers 28.9% 29.3% 32.0% 41.1% 46.2% 47.7% 48.3%

- Plant farming 1.8% 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 5.7% 6.5% 7.5%

- Pig breeding 21.1% 22.2% 19.9% 32.8% 36.7% 30.2% 28.2%

- Other agriculture 5.0% 5.9% 6.6% 9.3% 13.5% 11.2% 10.8%

Coverage ratio 12.6% 13.2% 12.8% 18.7% 21.8% 20.7% 20.2%


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Table 9. Group agricultural exposure and coverage, Q2 (16)


Non-performing loans were largely unchanged in the quarter at DKK2.8bn.

Chart 5. Non-performing loans


Incl. early R elat ive to

Expo sure D KKm P o rk M ilk Grain Others T o tal pro visio ns to tal expo sure

Danske Bank ex RD (Q2-16) 2,935 2,208 3,107 4,206 12,456 1.1%

chg. ytd -1.1% -64.4% -7.2% -19.3% -29.7%

Jyske Bank (Q2-16) 1,993 1,665 1,696 1,200 6,554 4.9%

chg. ytd 8.2% -3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 2.1%

Sydbank (Q2-16) 1,784 1,734 1,288 1,116 5,922 9.0%

chg. ytd 4.8% 1.3% 1.4% -9.1% 0.2%

Spar Nord (Q2-16) 927 1,157 701 784 3,569 7.6%

chg. ytd 2.9% 1.7% 32.1% -11.2% 3.4%

Ringkjøbing Landbobk (FY15) 276 276 - 717 1,269 7.1%

Expo sure %

chg. ytd 24% 18% 25% 34%

Jyske Bank (Q2-16) 30% 25% 26% 18%

Sydbank (Q2-16) 30% 29% 22% 19%

Spar Nord (Q2-16) 26% 32% 20% 22%

Ringkjøbing Landbobk (FY15) 22% 22% - 57%

Lo an lo ss reserve rat io

Danske Bank core, ex RD (Q2-16) 46.5% 49.0% 12.8% 4.8% 24.5% 31.4%

chg 5Qs 9.0% 35.9% 1.1% 1.8% 12.8% 15.9%

Jyske Bank (Q2-16) 30.2% 47.7% 6.5% 11.2% 25.1% 29.5%

chg 5Qs 9.1% 18.8% 4.8% 6.2% 9.5% 13.9%

Sydbank (Q2-16) 20.7% 34.7% 5.0% 9.1% 19.2% 21.7%

chg 5Qs 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% -0.9% 2.0% 2.5%

Spar Nord (Q2-16) 34.9% 36.7% 7.2% 4.6% 23.4% 25.3%

chg 5Qs 15.5% 18.7% 3.1% -0.3% 9.2% 8.3%

RiLBa - individual (FY15) 36.6% 49.0% 8.6% 26.2% 30.2%

2,1011,893 1,886 1,780 1,719

3,187 3,084

3,795 3,7714,016

3,1602,961

2,826 2,835 2,841

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

DK

Km


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AT-1 issuance opens yield case further

While Jyske Bank looks very well capitalised on a 15.9% CET-1 ratio in Q3 16, we have,

for some time, argued that the S&P RAC ratio requirements mean that Jyske Bank in

reality needed 16% CET-1 to be compliable with the S&P requirements.

The DKK1.5bn AT-1 issuance in September 2016 however changes this and in reality

lowers the implicit CET-1 requirement to 15%. This also leaves the bank overcapitalised

and we expect ample capital distribution in the coming years and pencil in DKK2bn of

buy-backs in 2017E and 2018E.

Jyske Bank mentions in the Q3 16 report that the DPS expected for 2016E should be

largely on par with 2015. During 2016 Jyske Bank has fuelled its pay-out significantly

via buy-backs of DKK1.6bn and we would expect this to continue. We expect DKK2bn

of buy-backs in 2017E and 2018E.

Chart 6. Capital position on different measures


Estimate changes

We cut our net profits slightly due to lower NII and commission/fee income offset partly

by lower costs and lower loan loss provisions.

This leaves us with 3.9% lower reported EPS for 2017E and 2.1% for 2018E.

10.0% 10.3% 10.8% 10.4% 10.2%

15.3%16.1% 16.0%

15.4% 15.0%

13.3% 13.5%12.9% 12.5% 12.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

RAC ratio, S&P CET-1 ratio, CRD-IV CET-1 , Basel 1 transitional rules


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Table 10. Estimate changes

Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates, per share data in DKK

D KKm Old N ew chg. Old N ew chg. Old N ew chg.

Core net interest income 5,849 5,718 -2.2% 6,200 6,073 -2.1% 6,556 6,419 -2.1%

Core net commission 1,524 1,522 -0.1% 1,697 1,677 -1.2% 1,788 1,759 -1.6%

Core net interest and commisions 7,373 7,240 -1.8% 7,897 7,749 -1.9% 8,344 8,178 -2.0%

Core capital gains 535 617 15.3% 260 260 0.0% 260 260 0.0%

Core banking other income 253 238 -5.8% 277 289 4.1% 271 291 7.2%

Core earnings, opearational leasing 98 93 -5.4% 95 99 3.5% 99 103 3.5%

Total core income 8,260 8,189 -0.9% 8,530 8,397 -1.6% 8,975 8,832 -1.6%

Core banking costs -5,047 -5,058 0.2% -5,015 -5,015 0.0% -4,990 -4,951 -0.8%

Core earnings before loan losses 3,213 3,130 -2.6% 3,515 3,382 -3.8% 3,984 3,881 -2.6%

Core loan loss provisions -125 -175 39.8% -179 -166 -7.0% -218 -176 -19.3%

Core earnings after loan losses 3,088 2,955 -4.3% 3,336 3,216 -3.6% 3,766 3,705 -1.6%

Profit from own porfto lio 103 281 172.8% 250 250 0.0% 250 250 0.0%

Pretax profits 3,191 3,236 1.4% 3,586 3,466 -3.4% 4,016 3,955 -1.5%

Tax -681 -672 -1.2% -789 -763 -3.4% -884 -870 -1.5%

Net profits incl. M inority 2,510 2,564 2.1% 2,797 2,704 -3.4% 3,133 3,085 -1.5%

Interest costs on additional tier-1 capital -29 -25 -14.7% -87 -87 0.0% -87 -87 0.0%

M inority interests 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 -

Net profits 2,481 2,539 2.3% 2,710 2,617 -3.5% 3,046 2,998 -1.6%

Normalised profits 2,382 2,397 0.7% 2,610 2,516 -3.6% 2,945 2,898 -1.6%

EPS, net profits 27.02 27.59 2.1% 31.54 30.31 -3.9% 38.03 37.24 -2.1%

EPS adj. 25.93 26.05 0.4% 30.38 29.14 -4.1% 36.77 36.00 -2.1%

Dividend per share 6.08 5.50 -9.5% 7.10 6.00 -15.5% 8.56 8.38 -2.1%

Share buy back 1,644 1,644 0.0% 2,000 2,000 0.0% 2,000 2,000 0.0%

CET-1 ratio 16.1% 16.0% 0.0% 15.5% 15.4% 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% -0.1%

Total lending 427,366 419,946 -1.7% 458,273 450,315 -1.7% 481,336 473,132 -1.7%

No. of shares, year-end 88.99 89.40 0.5% 82.87 83.28 0.5% 77.31 77.71 0.5%

2017E 2018E2016E


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Table 11. Interim data and estimates

Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates, per share data in DKK

D KKm Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Core net interest income 1,389 1,452 1,478 1,567 1,450 1,448 1,393 1,427 4,471 4,438 5,315 5,886 5,718 6,073 6,419

Core net commission 617 350 372 495 324 343 363 492 1,652 1,731 1,761 1,834 1,522 1,677 1,759

Core net interest and commisions 2,006 1,802 1,850 2,062 1,774 1,791 1,756 1,919 6,143 6,169 7,076 7,720 7,240 7,749 8,178

Core capital gains -99 597 -229 112 210 169 170 68 66 410 -42 381 617 260 260

Core banking other income 52 68 60 59 57 73 48 60 428 561 3,074 239 238 289 291

Core earnings, opearational leasing 19 27 22 25 22 28 21 22 0 65 78 93 93 99 103

Total core income 1,978 2,494 1,703 2,258 2,063 2,061 1,995 2,070 6,637 7,205 10,186 8,433 8,189 8,397 8,832

Core banking costs -1,338 -1,294 -1,321 -1,369 -1,268 -1,230 -1,275 -1,285 -4,459 -4,469 -5,231 -5,322 -5,058 -5,015 -4,951

Core earnings before loan losses 640 1,200 382 889 795 831 720 784 2,190 2,736 4,955 3,111 3,130 3,382 3,881

Core loan loss provisions -327 -24 -30 34 -172 105 -77 -31 -1,842 -930 -1,953 -347 -175 -166 -176

Core earnings after loan losses 313 1,176 352 923 623 936 643 753 348 1,806 3,002 2,764 2,955 3,216 3,705

Profit from own porfto lio 189 125 -26 152 -145 88 258 80 612 495 101 440 281 250 250

Net Extraordinary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pretax profits 502 1,301 326 1,075 478 1,024 901 833 851 2,249 3,103 3,204 3,236 3,466 3,955

Tax -109 -305 -76 -238 -94 -215 -180 -183 -255 -493 -14 -728 -672 -763 -870

Net profits incl. M inority 393 996 250 837 384 809 721 650 596 1,756 3,089 2,476 2,564 2,704 3,085

Interest costs on additional tier-1 capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -22 0 0 0 0 -25 -87 -87

M inority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0

Net profits 393 996 250 837 384 809 718 628 593 1,755 3,088 2,476 2,539 2,617 2,998

Normalised profits 683 400 379 673 264 836 711 585 635 1,437 1,297 2,113 2,397 2,516 2,898

EPS, net profits 4.14 10.48 2.63 8.81 4.07 8.68 7.77 6.96 8.45 24.62 33.89 26.14 27.59 30.31 37.24

EPS adj. 7.19 4.21 3.99 7.08 2.80 8.97 7.69 6.49 9.05 20.16 14.24 22.31 26.05 29.14 36.00

BV/Share 294.3 305.1 307.6 317.3 316.1 325.6 350.0 358.0 218.9 244.8 289.9 317.3 358.0 391.7 432.6

NAV (Adj. BV/Share) 293.2 304.0 306.6 316.4 315.2 324.7 349.1 357.1 218.4 243.8 288.7 316.4 357.1 390.8 431.6

Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.50 6.00 8.38

Share buy back 0 0 0 106 258 386 500 500 -1,166 0 0 106 1,644 2,000 2,000

No. of shares, year-end 95.04 95.04 95.04 94.67 93.88 92.43 91.08 89.40 71.28 71.28 95.08 94.67 89.40 83.28 77.71

No. of shares, average 95.04 95.04 95.04 95.04 94.28 93.16 92.43 90.24 70.20 71.28 91.11 94.70 92.03 86.34 80.49

Tier 1 ratio 15.7% 16.5% 16.3% 16.5% 16.3% 16.2% 17.1% 17.3% 15.3% 15.9% 15.8% 16.5% 17.3% 16.6% 16.1%

CET-1 ratio 15.3% 16.1% 15.8% 16.1% 15.9% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 14.2% 15.3% 15.3% 16.1% 16.0% 15.4% 15.0%

ROE 5.7% 14.0% 3.4% 11.2% 5.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.8% 4.0% 10.6% 13.7% 8.6% 8.2% 8.1% 9.1%

RoNAV 5.8% 14.1% 3.4% 11.2% 5.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.8% 4.1% 10.7% 13.8% 8.6% 8.2% 8.1% 9.1%

Net loan loss ratio 0.35% 0.03% 0.03% -0.03% 0.17% -0.10% 0.07% 0.03% 1.52% 0.71% 0.54% 0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

Total lending 376,175 375,184 380,545 396,176 410,591 406,910 410,328 419,946 118,554 131,378 361,799 396,176 419,946 450,315 473,132


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DKK365 fair value – and new 12-month target price

We calculate a DKK365 12m forward fair value and cut our 12-month target price from

DKK375 but reiterate Buy.

Table 12. Valuation (DKKm)

Source: Danske Bank Markets estimates, per share value in DKK

2 0 15 2 0 16 E 2 0 17 E 2 0 18 E

Net profits 2,476 2,539 2,617 2,998

Core Tier- 1 capital ratio 16.1% 16.0% 15.4% 15.0%

Expected long- term core tier- 1 ratio 14.0%

Surplus capital, 2017e 2,348

Cash distribution until YE2017e 4,518

Total surplus capital incl. cash distribution in period 6,866

Net loan loss ratio 0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

Normalised loan loss level 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

RoNAV 8.6% 8.2% 8.1% 9.1%

Normalised profit 2,132 2,158 2,499

RoNAV - c a pita l a nd loa n loss a djuste d 7 .9 % 7 .4 % 8 .1%

Cost of capital 8.7%

Growth, long- term 0.0%

Fair value multiple, P/NAV, adj. 0.93x

Fair value on needed capital 29,087

Excess capital added back 6,866

Equity value - 2017e 35,953

Present equity value, unadjusted 29,993

Illiquidity discount 0.0%

Present equity value, adjusted 29,993

Per share value, NPV 336

Pe r sha re va lue , 12 m forwa rd 3 6 5

Current share price 324

Upside/downside to NPV 4%

Upside /downside to 12 m forwa rd 13 %


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Table 13. Valuation table

Source: Company data, FactSet, Danske Bank Markets, prices as at close 27 October 2016

Table 14. Nordic banks key operational ratios


Share T arget P / N T A P / B V M .cap

T icker price R ating price Upside 16 17E 18E 16E 16E 15A 16E 17E € bn 16E 17E 18E LLR C ET 1

Danske Bank DANSKE.CO 212 Not rated - - 11.1 11.4 10.3 1.41 1.35 3.8% 4.3% 4.5% 28.7 11.2 10.6 9.5 0.14% 14.5%

DNB DNB.OL 119 Hold 120 1% 11.5 11.8 9.6 1.00 0.97 3.8% 4.4% 5.3% 20.4 9.5 9.0 7.0 0.25% 15.5%

Nordea NDA.ST 95 Buy 105 10% 12.0 11.4 10.7 1.41 1.25 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 39.7 11.6 10.1 8.7 0.19% 17.6%

SEB SEBa.ST 92 Buy 99 7% 13.1 12.0 10.8 1.67 1.46 5.7% 6.0% 6.5% 20.9 13.3 11.1 9.1 0.21% 17.8%

SHB SHBa.ST 125 Sell 108 -14% 15.8 16.5 15.3 1.92 1.79 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 25.4 16.0 15.4 13.4 0.15% 22.9%

Swedbank SWEDa.ST 214 Hold 215 1% 12.2 13.1 12.1 2.07 1.84 5.0% 6.0% 5.9% 24.3 12.1 12.1 10.3 0.20% 23.6%

Jyske Bank JYSK.CO 324 Buy 365 13% 12.4 11.1 9.0 0.91 0.91 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 4.11 12.5 11.5 9.2 0.17% 14.0%

Sydbank SYDB.CO 214 Hold 215 0% 10.8 10.2 9.8 1.32 1.28 5.2% 6.5% 6.8% 2.06 11.7 10.2 9.0 0.60% 13.5%

RILBA RILBA.CO 1,465 Buy 1,650 13% 13.1 12.2 11.1 1.99 1.99 2.0% 2.7% 3.4% 0.92 11.7 11.1 9.7 0.30% 14.0%

Spar Nord SPNO.CO 69 Hold 65 -5% 12.5 11.5 10.8 1.13 1.10 4.4% 5.7% 5.8% 1.15 11.3 10.9 9.8 0.65% 13.0%

Nordic average 12.4 12.3 11.1 1.55 1.42 5.0% 5.4% 5.6% 12.0 11.0 9.4 0.2%

Small & mid cap, simple average 12.2 11.2 10.2 1.34 1.32 3.3% 4.2% 4.5% 11.8 10.9 9.4 0.4%

European average 10.3 9.1 8.1 0.98 4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 877

European average ex. HSBC + Standard Chartered 10.2 9.0 8.1 1.01 3.7% 4.3% 5.0% 744

P / E no rmalised #

# ) P/E normalised: level playing f ield capitalisat ion (see CET1 column), normalised loan losses and dividend adjusted. Normalised loan losses: We use our long-term loan loss assumption instead

of our actual forecasted loan loss rat io for a given year. Dif ference to the CET1 hurdle rate is used for share buy-backs/ issue of new shares at the current share price + 10%p.a. Expected dividends

are deducted from the current price; for e.g. 2016 we deduct the dividend for 2015 (if it has not paid out yet) as well as the dividend for 2016. For DNB we use transit ion RWA while we use fully

loaded Basel 3 RWAs for the other banks. The CET1 column shows what we think is a prudent long-term CET1 target.

P / E adj. D ividend yield

N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1 N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1 N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1

Danske Bank 2.64% 0.48 0.00% 12.1% 13.0% 15.8% 2.65% 0.48 0.04% 11.5% 12.3% 15.5% 2.67% 0.47 0.06% 12.5% 13.1% 14.4%

DNB 2.26% 0.41 0.49% 9.3% 8.7% 15.5% 2.28% 0.42 0.43% 9.0% 8.1% 16.6% 2.36% 0.40 0.35% 10.7% 9.5% N/A

Nordea 1.38% 0.50 0.14% 11.0% 11.8% 18.1% 1.40% 0.49 0.16% 10.8% 12.2% 18.4% 1.41% 0.47 0.16% 11.2% 12.7% 18.8%

SEB 1.33% 0.65 0.08% 7.0% 12.5% 18.4% 1.31% 0.49 0.10% 12.0% 13.6% 18.6% 1.34% 0.47 0.10% 12.8% 14.5% 18.8%

SHB 1.44% 0.46 0.07% 12.5% 12.6% 23.7% 1.43% 0.48 0.09% 10.7% 11.5% 24.4% 1.45% 0.47 0.10% 11.2% 12.0% 25.0%

Swedbank 1.60% 0.40 0.10% 15.4% 17.3% 24.1% 1.59% 0.41 0.12% 13.8% 15.6% 24.5% 1.62% 0.39 0.10% 14.4% 16.1% 25.4%

Jyske Bank 3.17% 0.62 0.04% 8.2% 7.7% 16.0% 3.24% 0.60 0.04% 8.1% 7.8% 15.4% 3.28% 0.56 0.04% 9.1% 8.8% 15.0%

Sydbank 3.49% 0.58 0.16% 12.3% 12.5% 15.1% 3.49% 0.58 0.16% 12.2% 12.7% 15.1% 3.45% 0.57 0.19% 12.5% 12.8% 14.8%

RILBA 3.82% 0.32 0.27% 16.0% 15.4% 17.2% 3.74% 0.32 0.14% 15.7% 15.7% 16.6% 3.66% 0.31 0.12% 16.1% 16.1% 16.3%

Spar Nord 3.41% 0.62 0.61% 9.2% 9.2% 14.0% 3.29% 0.62 0.39% 9.4% 9.7% 13.7% 3.22% 0.62 0.35% 9.8% 10.1% 13.3%

N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1 N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1 N II C / I LLR R o E R o N T A C ET 1

Danske Bank 1.18% 0.60 0.22% 5.0% 7.1% 4.2% 2.58% 0.52 0.15% 2.4% 8.1% 15.1% 2.57% 0.51 0.00% 8.5% 11.9% 16.1%

DNB 2.28% 0.47 0.17% 13.2% 13.8% 12.5% 2.36% 0.42 0.12% 13.9% 13.1% 14.7% 2.36% 0.37 0.23% 14.1% 12.5% 14.5%

Nordea 1.60% 0.51 0.21% 10.9% 12.4% 0.9% 1.59% 0.53 0.15% 11.2% 13.0% - 1.44% 0.49 0.14% 12.0% 13.5% 16.5%

SEB 1.48% 0.54 0.09% 12.7% 14.7% 1.4% 1.50% 0.47 0.10% 14.9% 14.8% 16.0% 1.40% 0.50 0.07% 12.0% 14.5% 18.8%

SHB 1.58% 0.47 0.07% 13.3% 14.3% 2.3% 1.55% 0.45 0.10% 12.8% 13.5% 19.7% 1.51% 0.45 0.09% 12.8% 12.7% 21.1%

Swedbank 1.76% 0.45 0.00% 12.1% 16.0% 0.9% 1.70% 0.43 0.03% 15.1% 17.4% 20.2% 1.63% 0.43 0.04% 13.1% 15.1% 24.1%

Jyske Bank 4.05% 0.62 0.74% 10.6% 8.7% 0.6% 3.69% 0.51 0.79% 13.7% 5.8% 15.3% 3.33% 0.63 0.09% 8.6% 7.4% 16.1%

Sydbank 3.59% 0.59 2.60% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 3.43% 0.58 0.96% 9.8% 10.7% 13.9% 3.42% 0.59 0.40% 10.0% 10.2% 14.5%

RILBA 4.68% 0.31 0.91% 12.8% 12.7% 0.5% 4.32% 0.33 0.59% 14.9% 14.8% 17.5% 3.89% 0.32 0.37% 14.3% 13.9% 17.1%

Spar Nord 4.82% 0.61 1.06% 8.6% 8.3% 3.3% 4.89% 0.62 1.34% 9.0% 10.3% 12.7% 3.62% 0.56 0.81% 12.2% 8.1% 14.4%

NII: NII/av.g lending, C/I: based on reported f igures, LLR: Loan losses vs. avg. Lending, CET1: Basel III fully loaded

2018E

2015A20142013A

2016E 2017E


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Table 15. Yield and pay-out


Yield

Share

price Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total

Danske Bank 212.4 2.6% 2.4% 4.9% 3.8% 4.2% 8.0% 4.3% 3.9% 8.1% 4.5% 3.5% 7.9% 4.7% 3.7% 8.4%

DNB 118.5 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 4.4% 0.0% 4.4% 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 7.2% 0.0% 7.2%

Nordea 9.8 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 6.9% 0.0% 6.9%

SEB 92.1 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 7.1% 0.0% 7.1%

SHB 125.3 4.7% 0.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8%

Swedbank 213.7 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 6.2% 0.0% 6.2%

Jyske Bank 324.0 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 5.4% 7.0% 1.7% 6.7% 8.4% 1.9% 7.1% 9.0% 2.6% 7.7% 10.3%

Sydbank 214.2 3.3% 3.2% 6.5% 5.2% 2.2% 7.4% 6.5% 2.8% 9.3% 6.8% 2.9% 9.7% 7.2% 3.0% 10.2%

RILBA 1465 1.8% 1.7% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 6.1% 3.4% 3.9% 7.3% 4.1% 4.1% 8.2%

Spar Nord 68.5 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 5.7% 2.3% 8.0% 5.8% 3.0% 8.8% 7% 3.1% 9.6%

Buy-back: We have used the buy-back the fo llowing year

P ay-o ut rat io

Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total Div. Buy-b. Total

Danske Bank 43% 39% 83% 47% 53% 99% 49% 44% 93% 52% 40% 92% 49% 38% 87%

DNB 30% 0% 30% 30% 0% 30% 48% 0% 48% 59% 0% 59% 66% 0% 66%

Nordea 76% 0% 76% 71% 0% 71% 76% 0% 76% 78% 0% 78% 74% 0% 74%

SEB 54% 0% 54% 70% 0% 70% 122% 0% 122% 78% 0% 78% 76% 0% 76%

SHB 75% 0% 75% 72% 0% 72% 71% 0% 71% 79% 0% 79% 73% 0% 73%

Swedbank 73% 0% 73% 75% 0% 75% 73% 0% 73% 78% 0% 78% 74% 0% 74%

Jyske Bank 0% 3% 3% 20% 66% 86% 20% 79% 99% 20% 76% 96% 23% 67% 89%

Sydbank 49% 48% 97% 71% 30% 102% 70% 30% 100% 70% 30% 100% 70% 29% 100%

RILBA 28% 27% 55% 31% 31% 61% 35% 43% 78% 42% 48% 89% 46% 46% 91%

Spar Nord 33% 0% 33% 43% 17% 60% 70% 29% 98% 67% 35% 102% 71% 33% 104%

Danske Bank: Adjusted for the goodwill impairments in 2014 and 15

Buy-back: We have used the buy-back the fo llowing year

2014

2014

2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E


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Company summary

Income breakdown, geographical areas Income breakdown, segments

Company description

Main shareholders

Company information

Management

Revenue and profit before loan losses (DKKm)

Loan loss ratio and profit before loan losses (DKKm)

P/E - 12 months forward (x)

P/BV - 12 months forward (x)

Source: Company data, FactSet, Danske Bank Markets estimates [all charts and tables]

Denmark, 98%

International, 2%

Banking activities,

58%Trading and investment,

17%

BRF, 14%

Other, 11%

Jyske Bank (JB) is a full service Danish bank with a nationwide Danish presence.

JB is the third largest bank in Denmark and after the acquisition of BRF in 2014

is now the fourth largest mortgage lender as well. The bank's historical base in

Jutland was established in 1967 through the merger of four regional banks in the

mid-Jutland area. Following another merger in 1981, JB achieved nationwide

coverage, but Jyske Bank is still overexposed to the central Jutland area.

Name Votes (%) Capital (%)

BRF Holding 25.0% 25.0%

MFS Investment Management 5.1% 5.1%

Jyske Bank

Vestergade 8-16, 8600 Silkeborg

Denmark

www.jyskebank.dk

CEO: Anders Dam

CFO: Birger Krøgh Nielsen

IR: Birger Krøgh Nielsen

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

11 12 13 14 15 16E 17E 18E

Revenue Profit before loan losses (right)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

11 12 13 14 15 16E 17E 18E

Loan loss ratio Profit before loan losses

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


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Summary tables


INCOME STATEMENT

Year end Dec, DKKm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Net interest income 4,156 4,315 4,410 4,471 4,438 5,315 5,886 5,718 6,073 6,419

Commissions 1,269 1,322 1,310 1,652 1,731 1,761 1,834 1,522 1,677 1,759

Total revenues 6,509 6,425 6,327 6,637 7,205 10,186 8,433 8,189 8,397 8,832

Costs -3,344 -3,803 -4,277 -4,459 -4,469 -5,231 -5,322 -5,058 -5,015 -4,951

Pre-provision profits (PPP) 3,165 2,622 2,050 2,178 2,736 4,955 3,111 3,130 3,382 3,881

Loan losses -2,420 -1,581 -1,478 -1,842 -930 -1,953 -347 -175 -166 -176

Pre-tax profit 1,240 1,509 773 960 2,301 3,103 3,204 3,236 3,466 3,955

Net profit 1,075 1,263 662 702 1,807 3,088 2,476 2,564 2,704 3,085

Net profit (adj.) 465 752 448 635 1,437 1,297 2,113 2,397 2,516 2,898

BALANCE SHEET

DKKm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Lending 110,592 114,023 124,494 118,554 131,378 361,799 396,176 419,946 450,315 473,132

Other interest bearing assets 77,216 84,990 97,334 91,697 90,118 122,069 96,164 98,973 100,968 103,002

Goodwill 262 240 261 40 71 113 88 76 76 76

Total assets 224,594 244,114 270,220 258,247 262,004 541,679 543,399 572,852 606,285 632,228

Deposits from public 95,324 98,020 118,259 115,394 126,021 152,693 144,920 153,355 156,445 159,598

Wholesale funding 50,301 45,383 37,482 34,921 27,760 251,952 279,393 323,554 349,961 369,300

Subordinated debt 3,252 3,257 2,720 2,742 1,649 1,355 1,354 2,134 2,134 2,134

Equity 12,486 13,320 13,813 15,606 17,446 27,561 30,040 32,003 32,620 33,617

NTA 12,224 13,080 13,552 15,566 17,375 27,448 29,952 31,927 32,544 33,541

PER SHARE DATA 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

No. of shares, fully diluted YE (m) 64.8 64.8 64.8 71.3 71.3 95.1 94.7 89.4 83.3 77.7

No. of shares, fully diluted avg. (m) 64.8 64.8 64.8 70.2 71.3 91.1 94.7 92.0 86.3 80.5

EPS (reported) (DKK) 7.16 11.7 7.56 8.45 24.6 33.9 26.1 27.6 30.3 37.2

EPS (adj.) (DKK) 7.18 11.6 6.91 9.05 20.2 14.2 22.3 26.0 29.1 36.0

DPS (DKK) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.50 6.00 8.38

Book value per share (DKK) 193 206 213 219 245 290 317 358 392 433

MARGINS AND GROWTH 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

C/I, adjusted 51.4% 59.2% 67.6% 67.2% 62.0% 51.4% 63.1% 61.8% 59.7% 56.1%

NII/avg. lending 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Loan loss ratio 2.02% 1.41% 1.24% 1.52% 0.74% 0.79% 0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

NII growth 23.9% 3.8% 2.2% 1.4% -0.7% 19.8% 10.7% -2.9% 6.2% 5.7%

Revenue growth 7.5% -1.3% -1.5% 4.9% 8.6% 41.4% -17.2% -2.9% 2.5% 5.2%

Cost growth 8.6% -13.7% -12.5% -4.3% -0.2% -17.1% -1.7% 5.0% 0.9% 1.3%

PPP growth 32.1% -17.1% -21.8% 6.2% 25.6% 81.1% -37.2% 0.6% 8.0% 14.7%

RWA growth -4.9% 1.1% 7.0% -0.9% 3.4% 58.6% 0.3% 3.8% 4.3% 4.1%

PROFITABILITY 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

RoE, reported profits 8.8% 9.8% 4.9% 4.6% 10.9% 13.7% 8.6% 8.3% 8.4% 9.3%

RoNTA, adj. profits 4.1% 5.9% 3.4% 4.4% 8.7% 5.8% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 8.8%

Tier-1 13.5% 14.1% 13.3% 15.3% 15.9% 15.8% 16.5% 17.3% 16.6% 16.1%

Equity tier-1 11.9% 12.5% 12.1% 14.2% 15.3% 15.3% 16.1% 16.0% 15.4% 15.0%

RWA 100,420 101,572 108,637 107,636 111,276 176,433 176,904 183,706 191,544 199,321

VALUATION 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Share price (DKK) 203 259 141 157 293 313 312 324 324 324

Market cap (DKKm) 13,122 16,783 9,137 11,198 20,849 29,741 29,546 28,965 26,982 25,178

P/E (reported) (x) 28.3 22.2 18.6 18.6 11.9 9.2 11.9 11.7 10.7 8.7

P/E (adj.) (x) 28.2 22.3 20.4 17.4 14.5 22.0 14.0 12.4 11.1 9.0

P/BV (x) 1.05 1.26 0.66 0.72 1.20 1.08 0.98 0.91 0.83 0.75

P/NTA (x) 1.07 1.28 0.67 0.72 1.20 1.08 0.99 0.91 0.83 0.75

Dividend yield 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.6%

Total yield (incl. buybacks) 8.7% 10.6% 2.0% 7.2% 9.0% 10.3%


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Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of the research report is Asbjørn Nicholas Mørk.

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Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view

about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst

was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.

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Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other

jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the

extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.

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Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These

procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the

objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently

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Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other

remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.

Danske Bank, its affiliates, subsidiaries and staff may perform services for or solicit business from Jyske Bank and may hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in, the

financial instruments mentioned in this research report. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts of Danske Bank and undertakings with which the Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts

have close links are, however, not permitted to invest in financial instruments that are covered by the relevant Equity or Corporate Bonds analyst or the research sector to which the

analyst is linked.

Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking,

custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to Jyske Bank and have whatever rights as are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and

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As an investment bank, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services, including investment banking services. It is possible that Danske Bank and/or its

affiliates and/or its subsidiaries might seek to become engaged to provide such services to Jyske Bank in the next three months.

Danske Bank has made no agreement with Jyske Bank to write this research report. No parts of this research report have been disclosed to Jyske Bank. No recommendations or opinions

have been disclosed to Jyske Bank and no amendments have accordingly been made to the same before dissemination of the research report.

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Recommendations and opinions in this research report are formed on the basis of a combination of discounted cash flow analysis, industry knowledge, peer group analysis and company-

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Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.

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See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication.

Recommendation structure

The Danske Bank Markets recommendation system is absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends

and capital reimbursement) over a 12-month time horizon.

The Danske Bank Markets spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises three categories: Buy, Hold, Sell (in short B, H, S). In specific cases and for a limited period

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Meaning of each rating or recommendation:

• Buy: we expect the stock to generate a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months.

• Hold: we expect the stock to generate a total return of 0% to 10% over the next 12 months.

• Sell: we expect the stock to generate a total return below 0% over the next 12 months.

• Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (e.g. takeover bid, share issue) where the issuer or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a

change of analyst covering the stock.

• Not Rated: Danske Bank Markets produces investment research on Danske Bank but does not have an investment recommendation to buy, hold or sell or any target price on the

stock.


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As at 27 October 2016, Danske Bank Markets had investment recommendations on 261

securities. The distribution of recommendations is represented in the Securities ratings

breakdown diagram below.

The proportion of issuers corresponding to each of the recommendation categories above

to which Danske Bank provided investment banking services in the past

12 months is shown below.

General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall

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Buy50%

Hold34%

Sell16%

Rating Investment banking relationships

Buy 51%

Hold 38%

Sell 8%

Changes to recommendation in the past 12 months:

Date Old rec. New rec.

30 Sep 2016 Hold Buy

16 Aug 2016 Buy Hold

19 Apr 2016 Hold Buy

Documents

27 October 2016 Jyske Bank Buy - Privat - Danske Bank · PDF file3 | Jyske Bank Buy y. Results review Jyske Bank delivered an overall mixed set of numbers with weak income, especially