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8/14/2019 3. Armed Conflict and International Law.doc
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Armed Conflict and International Law: Contemporary Challenges
Clashes between great powers, regional conflicts, traditional interstate wars and armed
liberation/resistance movements remain relevant in international politics, but their number has
declined significantly. The contemporary era is witnessing the rise of conflicts that are markedly
different from those prevalent during the last century. The fact that most wars are fought within
rather than between states is only the most obvious transformation. Additionally, modern
warfare is distinguishable from the past by virtue of the following characteristics: 1
1. Goals: olitical goals related to foreign policy interests of states have been pushed
aside by the consolidation of new forms of power based on ethnic/religious homogeneity. !ven
though ethnicity and religious affiliation are rarely sources of armed conflict, they often are the
basis of social mobili"ation and an e#pression of the deeper causes of war.
$. Values: %ith few e#ceptions, notably the &'lobal %ar on Terrorism( )'%*T+,armed conflicts are no longer about universal principles, such as those advanced by fascism,
socialism or democracy, but about identities at the tribal and communal levels. Third party
intervention, in contrast, is most often guided by universal principles, including democracy,
human rights and humanitarianism.
. Mobilization: -ather than mobili"ing constituencies by creating a sense of national
patriotism, leaders use fear, corruption, religion, ethnicity and the media to advance the interests
of narrowly defined identity groups. n many instances, boys, girls, men and women are forciblyrecruited to serve as soldiers, cooks, and se# slaves or to perform other duties.
. Eternal !upport: n the absence of super0power patrons, e#ternal support comes
from iaspora communities, foreign mercenaries, criminal networks and bad neighbors. 2upport
is not limited to financial contributions, but encompasses active participation in the fighting. 3or
instance, 4ud5ahedeen of the -ussian0Afghan war have fought in 6osnia and 7osovo, and are
now supporting the rebels in ra8. n Africa, mercenaries are playing an important role in many
conflicts.
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9. "arfare: n most of today(s armed conflicts fighting is dispersed and fragmented
and front lines disappear. nstead of heavy artillery and tanks, armed non0state actors use light
weapons, rocket0propelled grenades and improvised e#plosive devices. 3orced recruitment and
child soldiers are common.
n traditional warfare, conflicting parties deploy organi"ed armies, relying on the
strength and 8uantity of e8uipment and troops. on0state armed actors do not have the military
capacity of states and the resulting mismatch in capabilities and methods of engagement results
in asymmetric warfare : The disadvantaged side must use special tactics to overcome the
military deficit. These tactics include hit0and0run attacks, the use of difficult terrain and urban
areas, various forms of violence, including terrorism.
;. #argets: The laws of war are increasingly disregarded and the civilian population
has become the deliberate target of atrocities, rape and siege. 'enocide, systematic rape and
other violence against civilians, including terrorism, are characteristic of asymmetric warfare.
nited ations Charter. Article $)+ of the > Charter
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prohibits the use of force and the threat thereof in international relations. This overall
prohibition of the use of inter0state force is sub5ect to two e#ceptions:
1. Article %&recogni"es the use of force as self0defense in response to an armed attack
by another state.
$. Articles '()*&allow military action authori"ed or taken by the 2ecurity Council, if it
is determined that there is a threat to international peace, a breach of peace or an act of
aggression.
The > Charter only regulates the use of force between states. There are no provisions
in the Charter, or anywhere else in international law, that regulate when it is proper to resort to
force in intra0state affairs.
Ius in bello
us in bello refers to international humanitarian law )?@+. ?@ is known by many othernames such as =humanitarian law,= =law of conflict,= and =laws of war.= All these terms refer to
the rules regarding the treatment of civilians and non0combatants in areas of armed conflict and
the rules of engagement for soldiers and combatants. ?@ is only applicable in times of war and
consists of two branches:
1. #he +ague Law, based on the 1BB and 1B< ?ague Conventions, relates to the
proper use of weapons and military tactics. t states that choice of methods and means of warfare
is not unlimited. n order to spare the civilian population, armed forces shall at all times
distinguish between civilians and civilian ob5ects on the one hand and military ob5ectives on the
other. The ?ague @aw sets forth the principles of military necessity and proportionality.
$. Gene,a Law, which relates, among other things, to the proper treatment of prisoners
of war, civilians and other noncombatants. t states that persons who are not, or are no longer,
taking part in hostilities, including captured combatants, shall be respected, protected and treated
humanely. They shall be given appropriate care, without any discrimination.
The main sources of ius in bello are the four 1BB 'eneva Conventions and the two
Additional rotocols of 1B
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The two bodies of law, ius ad bellum and ius in bello, are based on the premises that
there are clear distinctions between: $
nternational and non0international conflicts
Crimes and acts of war
'eographic boundaries
eace and war time
ndividuals
#he Impact of Globalization
The changes in the nature of contemporary conflict outlined at the beginning of this unit
have to be viewed in the conte#t of globali"ation. ncreased transnational activities, growing
interdependence and integration, as well as the emergence of non0state entities in international
relations have had a profound impact on the international system and local communities. As aresult, the distinctions on which the laws of armed conflict were based slowly eroded. The
advent of the new generation of wars and global terrorism have e#acerbated and accelerated this
erosion.
International ,ersus -on)international Conflicts
n $1, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was involved in a long standing civil
war with the orthern Alliance while at the same time fighting an inter0state war with the
American0led coalition as a result of the regime(s connection to al Daeda and the 2eptember 11
attacks.
The internal conflicts in 6osnia and 7osovo have resulted in an international
response.
The >.2. invasion of ra8 in $ to remove 2addam ?ussein because of his threat
to international peace has triggered an internal armed struggle among the 2hia, the 2unni and, to
a lesser degree, the 7urds.
The problem is not only that the boundaries between international and non0international
conflicts have become blurred for analytical reasons. 3ar more important is the fact that as a
result, it has become difficult to determine and even disputed which body of law is applicable in
a specific case.
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Crime ,ersus Armed Conflict
The 'eneva Conventions, its Additional rotocols and the >nited ations Charter all
assume that not every act of violence constitutes an act of armed conflict. Additional rotocol
states that the rotocol:
= . . . shall not apply in situations of internal disturbance, and tensions such as riots,
isolated and sporadic acts of violence and other acts of a similar nature, as not being armed
conflicts.=
n 1Bnited ations 'eneral Assembly defined aggression as:
=. . . the use of armed force by a state against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or
political independence of another state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of
the >nited ations . . . =
This statement raises three important 8uestions with regard to the distinction between
crimes and armed conflict:
1. %hat is the threshold level of violenceE
$. %ho uses violenceE
. %hat is the purpose of the violenceE
The threshold level of violence and armed conflict has been debated among researchers
for a long time. A wide range of definitions of armed conflicts reflects this. At the political leveland in practice, the intensity and type of violence that amounts to armed conflict is e8ually
debated. The ambiguity of international law in distinguishing between acts of crime and armed
conflict results in distinctions based on policy rather than the law. 9
>nder the > Charter, only states can take aggressive actions that result in
international armed conflict. According to Article 1 of the Additional rotocol , non0state
armed groups in non0international conflicts must:
1. 6e under responsible command.
$. !#ercise control of part of the state(s territory.
. 6e capable of carrying out sustained and concerted military action.
. 6e capable of implementing the rotocol.
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The purpose of the violence, as alluded to in the definition of aggression, must be to
threaten the sovereignty or integrity of the state. n many of today(s armed conflicts, forms of
violence are used that don(t threaten the integrity or sovereignty of the state:
-ape, torture, the burning of houses and fields, theft and other forms of violence are
crimes often committed in times of war.
Criminal activities, such as drug and weapons trafficking, are necessary to sustain
conflict.
!#tra5udicial killings, political assassinations and kidnappings are used to protect the
flow of resources generated by those criminal undertakings.
n Colombia, the initial ideological struggle between the government and the rebel
groups, ational @iberation Army )!@+ and -evolutionary Armed 3orces of Columbia)3A-C+, has been replaced by a turf war about the lucrative drug market.
The 'lobal %ar on Terrorism )'%*T+ illustrates the difficulty of distinguishing
between crimes and armed conflict. 4any commentators argue that the terrorist attacks of
2eptember 11, $1 did not constitute an act of war but were simply a crime. ;Their argument is
based on the following assertions:
Al Daeda is not a state, and as a result there can be no international conflict.
Al Daeda(s attacks were isolated and sporadic and therefore the laws of war do not
apply.
Al Daeda holds no defined territory and controls no population, certainly not in the
>.2. *ne cannot speak of a non0international conflict.
Al Daeda is best described, so it is argued, as a criminal network similar to weapons
and drug traffickers. Criminal law, then, is the best way to deal with the terrorist organi"ation.
*pponents of this view, including the >nited 2tates government, argue that the violenceused by al Daeda is of a magnitude amounting to an act of war. n addition, the al Daeda
leadership stated that it is in a state of war with the >.2. and that the organi"ation intends to
conduct more attacks against >.2. interests. 3inally, terrorist attacks are far from sporadic and
isolated and point to a pattern of hostile action against >.2. interests that began with the 1BB
bombing of the %orld Trade Center and continue until today.
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The options available in responding to crimes and armed conflicts differ drastically.
>nder the criminal law perspective, there is no immunity for acts that are normally allowed
during war times and humanitarian law does not apply. 4ilitary responses, self0defense and
preemptive measures at home or abroad are not allowed. nstead, the government must engage
in a process of national and international legal investigation and is dependant on cooperation,
warrants and the demonstration of probable cause.
The >.2. approach has been to treat the 2eptember 11 terrorist attacks as an act of war
warranting a military response. n contrast, 6ritain has always regarded the terrorist activities in
orthern reland as a criminal matter outside the scope of the law of armed conflict. This
difference has had a significant impact on the manner in which each country has responded to
the terrorist threat.
.lurring Geographic .oundariesThe traditional paradigm of armed conflict assumes that there are clear spatial
boundaries between "ones of war and "ones of peace. n other words, one can clearly distinguish
between those places where the laws of war apply, and those places where regular domestic laws
and international agreements govern.
As mentioned at the beginning of this unit, asymmetric warfare has resulted in
fragmented and dispersed pockets of fighting, ambushes, and hit0and0run attacks. *ften the war
"one only encompasses parts of a country, as in 2udan, where the fighting occurs in the arfurregion. 2ometimes, attacks are staged from areas across international borders, as is the case in
the emocratic -epublic of Congo and -wanda. %ith the advent of international terrorism, the
distinction has become even more blurred. t is not clear where the ne#t attack is going to occur,
nor is it clear where the highly mobile terrorist cells operate.
The implications of the >.2. approach are that any terrorist, regardless of his
whereabouts, can be the target of a military strike sanctioned by international law and the
principle of self0defense. 3ollowing the same line of reasoning, 6ritain could order the targeted
killing of an -A terrorist on vacation in taly, and this right would e#tend to all other states.
%hether this interpretation should and will prevail is the sub5ect of a heated debate among legal
scholars, diplomats and international affairs specialists. At a minimum, it challenges the
principle of territorial sovereignty.
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/istinguishing #imes of 0eace from #imes of "ar
2imilar to the spatial delimitations between "ones of peace and "ones of war, the
international law of armed conflict rests on the temporal distinction between times of peace and
times of war.
'lobal terrorism makes this distinction less salient. %hile the '%*T )'lobal %ar on
Terrorism+ is a political reality, a significant number of legal e#perts and specialist in
international relations 8uestion whether the >nited 2tates is in a state of war, because:
Al Daeda is not a state. nternational conflicts may only occur between states.
The attacks of 2eptember 11, as well as the fatwas issued by *sama bin @aden, do not
constitute acts of war or declarations of war. B
Al Daeda does not control territory in the >.2.F therefore this does not constitute a
situation of internal conflict.t is also unclear what would mark the end of the 'lobal %ar on Terrorism )'%*T+.
The fact that there is no clear end to the hostilities has important ramifications for detaining
risoners of %ar )*%s+. *%s are to be returned as soon as possible after the cessation of
armed conflict. n a war with no end, *%s could legally be detained indefinitely.
uring times of war, many states give the government e#tended war powers that may
conflict with domestic laws, particularly in the area of civil liberties. Those powers are normally
e#tended for a finite period of time. n reaction to 2eptember 11, the >nited 2tates Congress has
granted the president a wide array of powers with the adoption of the atriot Act. 4any of the
provisions e#pired at the end of $9. !ven though Congress renewed the provisions for si#
months, lawmakers are not prepared to curtail civil liberties at the e#pense of e#ecutive power
indefinitely.
.lurred /istinctions in the !tatus of Indi,iduals
Ci,ilians and combatants
The distinction between civilians and combatants is one of the most important
distinctions in international humanitarian law. Civilians are:
=ersons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces
who have laid down their arms and those placed (hors de combat( G=out of the fight=H by
sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause . . .= 1
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Article of the Additional rotocol defines a combatant as a member of the armed
forces of a party to the conflict. As important as this distinction is, there is an ongoing debate
about the definition of =civilian= and the meaning of =taking no active part in hostilities.=
The distinction is based upon the assumption that wars are fought between uniformed
armies along clearly identifiable front lines. t is increasingly difficult to distinguish between
civilians and combatants because:
Combatants deliberately seek to blend into the civilian population.
Civilians often take part in violence against each other, as 6osnia, 2omalia, -wanda
and 7osovo have shown.
Advances in technology and communications render problematic the distinction
between the operations of military systems and civilian support systems. rivate security services and armed contractors operate in conflict "ones.
Terrorists, like many guerilla fighters, wear no uniforms and blend in with the local
population. 4any actively engage in acts of violence, and can be tried for war crimes, under the
law of armed conflict paradigm, or for murder, under the criminal procedure paradigm.
?owever, 8uestions remain about the status of the many hundreds of supporters that never
actually detonate a bomb. Are members of a charitable organi"ation that funnels money to al
Daeda combatants or civiliansE
1nlawful combatants and lawful combatants
The terms =lawful combatant= and =unlawful combatant= are not mentioned in the
'eneva Conventions and the Additional rotocols. The distinction is made because combatants
who act within the parameters set forth by the laws of armed conflict are immuni"ed for their
actions, and are thus lawful. f they are captured, they must be treated as prisoners of war and
returned after the cessation of hostilities. Combatants who violate the laws of armed conflict
either by committing a war crime or by failing to comply with the formal definition of
combatant, are not protected by the 'eneva Conventions and the Additional rotocols, they are
therefore unlawful combatants and can be tried and punished by a military tribunal or a regular
court. 11
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There are two criteria that must be satisfied for the status of lawful combatant:
1. Comply with the following conditions:1$
a+ being under the command of a person responsible for his subordinatesF
b+ wearing a distinctive sign recogni"able at a distanceF
c+ carrying arms openly.
$. Conduct military operations according to the laws and customs of war.
The >.2. government has applied these criteria in its decision to deny al Daeda
operatives prisoner of war status. 2ince they do not wear uniforms, do carry concealed weapons,
and deliberately target civilians, they are violating the laws of war and are, therefore, unlawful
combatants. The same standard has been applied to the Taliban fighters.
?uman rights groups, military lawyers and diplomats have challenged this
interpretation of the law because of its blanket application to all terrorists and Taliban members.They argue that some of the detainees, specifically the members of the Taliban captured in
Afghanistan, could have worn recogni"able uniforms or signs, or could have carried arms
openly.
n addition, Article 9 of the 'eneva Convention on risoners of %ar states that:
=. . . should any doubt arise as to whether a person, having committed a belligerent act
and having fallen into the hands of the enemy, Gis a lawful combatantH, such persons shall en5oythe protection of the present Convention until such time as their status has been determined by a
competent tribunal.=
The >.2. has not held any hearings pursuant to Article 9 to determine the status of
'uantanamo 6ay detainees.
The reality of today(s conflicts, in which impoverished regimes and militias may lack
the resources to get uniforms, which identify them as soldiers, makes the determination between
lawful and unlawful combatants problematic to some I
Aggregater /ata on Armed Conflicts
Armed Conflicts: &((2)322%1
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As a general trend, the number of armed conflicts in the aggregate has declined since
the end of the Cold %ar and was at the level of the 1B9s at the end of $. nterstate wars
have become increasingly uncommon and since 1BB there have been only a few international
armed conflicts: the invasion of 7uwait by ra8 )1BB+, the 'ulf %ar )1BB1+, the border war
between !ritrea and !thiopia, the >.2.0led intervention in Afghanistan )$1+ and ra8 )$+,
and the military clashes between ndia and akistan )$$+. n addition to these more clear0cut
armed interstate conflicts, the following cases also fall within this category: >.2. led
intervention in 6osnia )1BB9+, against ra8 )1BB: enforcing protection "ones over 7urd and
2hi(a Arab regions+, and in Jugoslavia )1BBB: ending the repression of 7osovar Albanians+. The
>nited 2tates and others argue that the al0Daeda attacks on >.2. soil on 2eptember 11, $1,
amounted to an act of international war as defined by the > Charter.
arallel to the decline in international wars there has been a steady rise in intrastatearmed conflicts in the years before the end of the Cold %ar and shortly thereafter. 2ince the year
$, most intrastate conflicts have occurred in Africa and Central Asia, and a trend has
emerged indicating increased armed conflicts in the 4iddle !ast and the predominantly 4uslim
countries in Africa and Central Asia. This trend may be related to >.2. activities in connection
with the '%*T. ntra0state armed conflicts often have regional and/or international dimensions,
thus challenging the traditional distinction between the two. At the same time, Afghanistan and
ra8 have shown that international intervention may significantly raise the possibility of civilwar.
n early $9, twenty ma5or armed conflicts were being fought of which eight were of
medium or high intensity: Colombia, -ussia )Chechnya+, ndia, 4yanmar, epal, ra8, 2udan
and the emocratic -epublic of Congo.
@ow intensity conflicts include Afghanistan, ortheast ndia, ndonesia, and the
hilippines, as well as Algeria, srael, 6urundi, vory Coast, igeria, 2omalia, and >ganda.
99 of 1;1 countries were affected by intrastate armed conflict since 1BB and of those
nearly two0thirds )9+ witnessed conflict lasting seven or more years.
n the year $9, only eight of these protracted conflicts were highly active and
resistant to settlement and international pressure: Algeria, 6urundi, Colombia, emocratic
-epublic of Congo, ndia, 4yanmar, epal, and -ussia.
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Conflicts in ndia, the hilippines and 2omalia continue at low levels with
negotiations for peace ongoing.
Countries Emerging from Armed Conflict !ince 3222 4&*5
Angola
The year $$ marked a turning point in the civil war between the ational >nion for
the Total ndependence of Angola and the 'overnment of Angola. After the death of >TA(s
leader Konas 2avimbi in 3ebruary $$ fighting stopped in 4arch and a peace agreement based
on the 1BB @usaka protocol was signed in August. !ven though >TA has been transformed
into the opposition party holding about 1/ of the seats in parliament, integration and
demobili"ation efforts for >TA fighters have been slow. overty, the absence of rule0of0law
and the integration of a large number of returning refugees continue to pose problems for thegovernment.
Liberia
n the year $, a two0pronged insurgency led by the @iberians >nited for
-econciliation and emocracy )@>-+ and the 4ovement for emocracy in @iberia )4*!@+
against the regime of Charles Taylor mobili"ed international pressure and culminated in the
approach of >.2. warships. As a result, Taylor resigned in $ and left the country. A peace
agreement between the insurgents and the remnants of Charles Taylor(s ational atriotic artywas signed shortly thereafter, followed by the deployment of a >nited ations peacekeeping
mission )>4@+ to provide security. n ovember $, the three factions agreed to disband
their militias and >4@ has confirmed the completion of their disarmament. !lections were
held in *ctober $9.
6wanda
n 4ay $1, the ?utu0led Army for the @iberation of -wanda, since 1BB based in the
emocratic -epublic of Congo, launched incursions into -wanda. The Tutsi0dominated
-wandan atriotic Army )-A+ repelled the attacks and forced the ?utus to retreat. The Army
for the @iberation of -wanda maintains a strong presence in the 7ivu region of the -C,
threatening the -wandan government, which periodically crosses into the -C in pursuit of
?utu militants.
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!ierra Leone
n 4ay $1, the government and the -evolutionary >nited 3ront signed a peace
agreement under the auspices of the >nited ations and initially enforced by 6ritish troops. A
>nited ations peacekeeping mission )>A42@+ was established and its mandate
subse8uently e#tended through Kuly $9. 3ree and fair elections were held in $$ endorsing
the 2ierra @eone eople(s arty )2@+ and installing its leader, Ahmad Te5an 7abbah, as
resident. isarmament was completed at the beginning of $, and the >nited ations ?igh
Commissioner for -efugees announced in Kuly of $9 the completion of its operation to
repatriate $nited ational arty )>+ took control
of the government after violent elections. The coalition started talks with the @iberation Tigers
of Tamil !elam )@TT!+ in an effort to negotiate and implement a conciliatory agenda with the
rebels. A cease0fire agreement was struck under international auspices in 3ebruary $$.
orway0lead negotiations between the parties continued and at the end of $$ they committed
to ending the war and instituting a federal system in 2ri @anka. eep divisions still e#ist within
the @TT!, the > and the former ruling coalition, the eople(s Alliance. 3urther peace talkswere suspended in $ and have not yet resumed because the government views the @TT!(s
demand for an nterim 2elf0'overning Authority )2'A+ in the Tamil region as a move toward
independence. n addition, factional fighting continues within the @TT! and a mutiny led by
Colonel 7aruna was put down by force in $. The lack of cooperation between the
government and the @TT! in the aftermath of the $ Tsunami was indicative of the fro"en
nature of the peace talks. ?owever, at the beginning of $;, the parties agreed to meet in
2wit"erland under the aegis of orway to revive the process.
1nited !tates
*n 2eptember 11, $1, a concerted terrorist attack on the %orld Trade Center in ew
Jork and the entagon in %ashington C caused the collapse of the skyscrapers, badly
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damaged the entagon and killed and in5ured thousands of people when two hi5acked
commercial airplanes were crashed into the sites. Jet another target was spared when civilian
passengers of a third flight resisted the terrorist attackers causing the plane to crash into a
ennsylvania field. The attack by Al Daeda is widely regarded as an act of war and has led to
>.2. military action in Afghanistan and ra8. %hile Al Daeda continues to attack >.2. targets
abroad, mainly in 4uslim countries, there have been no further incidents on >.2. territory since
the B/11 attacks.
Countries with on)going ma8or armed conflict through 322%
Afghanistan
As a result of the B/11 attacks, a >.2. led coalition ousted the ashtun0dominated
Taliban regime in late $1. n $$, a @oya Kirga established the Transitional Authority andelected ?amid 7ar"ai as interim president. A new constitution was approved in $.
residential elections marked by violence were held in *ctober $ giving victory to ?amad
7ar"ai. The provinces of Afghanistan remain largely outside the control of the central
government and violence persists. -ecent attempts to prohibit opium production have further
aggravated the relationship between 7abul and the warlords in the provinces.
AlgeriaThe Armed slamic 'roup )'A+ and a splinter faction, the 2alafist 'roup for
reaching and Combat )'2C+, continue their violence to undermine the secular government of
resident 6outeflika. They re5ected the president(s offer of negotiations toward a peace
agreement as well as his offer of amnesty for all slamic guerillas who would lay down their
weapons. At the beginning of $9, the government announced that it broke the resistance of
'A and that the '2C was severely weakened due to the loss of much of its leadership and
internal dissension.
.urundi
The arty for the @iberation of the ?utu eople03orces for ational @iberation
)alipehutu03@+ remained the only rebel group in armed opposition to the government in early
$9. The principal ?utu rebel group, the ational Council for the efence of emocracy 0
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3orces for the efence of emocracy )C03+, agreed to a comprehensive peace
agreement with the government in $, after a power transfer within the transitional
government from resident 6uyoya, a Tutsi to ?utu resident dayi"eye. An interim
constitution was approved in $. The transitional government is scheduled to end in
ovember $9.
Colombia
eace talks initiated by resident astrana collapsed at the beginning of $$ after four
years of negotiations that failed to end the 0year civil war. The government recaptured the
demilitari"ed "one that had been granted to the -evolutionary Armed 3orces of Colombia
)3A-C+. n response to the government offensive the 3A-C attempted to disrupt the $$
elections and mounted a counter0attack. ewly0elected resident >ribe declared a state ofemergency, backed by the >.2., and abandoned all prospect for negotiations in favor of counter0
insurgency measures. The >.2. provided L billion in military aid under &lan Colombia( to
support the government in Colombia. 6y attacking 3A-C strongholds and destroying coca
fields the government plans to weaken 3A-C forces and undermine the rebel(s financial base.
The ational @iberation Army )!@+, the smaller rebel faction, has kept a low profile since
$$. Talks between the government of Colombia and the !@ were agreed upon at the end of
$9, signaling a breakthrough in negotiations. The ma5or right wing paramilitary group, the>nited 2elf0efense 3orces )A>C+, signed the 2anta 3e de -alito Agreement to demobili"e in
$ after serious human rights violations put pressure on its leadership. ?owever, the group is
slow in implementing the terms of the agreement.
/emocratic 6epublic of Congo
The emocratic -epublic of Congo )formerly Maire+ has been fractured into four
distinct regions since armed rebellion first flared in 2eptember 1BB;, forcing the fall of the long0
standing and corrupt 4obutu regime in 4ay 1BB
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involvement of troops from several regional states has further complicated the situation. 2trong
international pressure on the warring parties has led to a string of ceasefire and peace
agreements including the @usaka peace accord in August 1BBB, negotiated withdrawals of
foreign troops, and the ecember $$ power0sharing agreement signed in retoria.
egotiations between the government and the two main rebel groups begun in 3ebruary $$
ended in early $, resulting in a draft constitution calling for an all0party transitional
government and the signing of a peace agreement. Koseph 7abila was sworn in as president of
the transitional government in April $. n $, 7abila(s transitional government faced failed
coup attempts in 4arch and Kune, a military rebellion in Kune, and increasing tension with
-wanda in ecember. The transition to a permanent government was scheduled for Kune $9.
?owever, the parliament e#tended the process to ecember $9. 2imilarly, national elections
were also postponed from Kune $9 to 4arch $;. Niolence continued in the more remoteregions, especially in the provinces of turi and 7atanga.
n $, The >nited 2tates has sponsored a tripartite Commission bringing together
officials from -wanda, Congo and >ganda in an effort to foster regional cooperation and build
confidence. 6urundi 5oined the commission in $9.
India
ndia(s strategy of creating peace and stability in the disputed 7ashmir territory fromwithin )i.e., attempting to legitimi"e its administration over the territory by holding democratic
elections and engaging in dialogue with the local authorities over self0rule and governance
issues+ continued to be undermined by 4uslim militant groups that seek to either establish an
independent 7ashmiri state or bring it under rule by akistan. Attacks by slamist militants on
the 7ashmiri legislative assembly in late 2eptember $1 and on ndia(s parliament building in
ecember $1 drastically raised tensions between ndia and akistan. ersistent infiltration
from akistan and attacks by 7ashmiri separatists brought the two countries to the brink of
interstate war in 4ay0Kune $$. %hile the ndian and akistani armies instituted a
comprehensive ceasefire agreement for the @ine of Control in ovember $ and began
bilateral talks in early $, separatist violence continues to flare in 7ashmir.
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Indonesia
3ollowing the failed implementation of a Kanuary $1 regional autonomy agreement,
3ree Aceh 4ovement )'A4+ militants and ndonesian armed forces engaged in renewed
violence. Although resident 4egawati 2ukarnoputri had pledged, as recently as August $$,
to crush the 'A4 rebellion, the ndonesian government responded to intense international
pressure and signed a new regional peace and autonomy measure with the 'A4 leadership in
'eneva in ecember $$. n 4ay $, the government imposed martial law in Aceh
following the breakdown of the ceasefire and the failure of peace talks in Kapan. n ovember
$, newly0elected resident Judhoyono e#tended the state of civil emergency for si# months.
Coastal and lowland areas of Aceh were devastated by the ecember $ tsunamiF the
provincial capital, 6anda Aceh, was destroyed. espite offers of a ceasefire by 'A4 rebels
during relief operations in the province, ndonesian forces claimed to have killed 1$ rebelsduring offensive operations in Kanuary $9. eace talks resumed in late Kanuary although the
main hurdle continues to be 'A4(s insistence on, and the government(s re5ection of, an
independence referendum.
Ira9
The >nited 2tates, with the support of the >7, invaded ra8 on 4arch $, $, with
the stated goal of deposing the 6a(athist regime of 2addam ?ussein, as it was allegedlydeveloping %4 capability in contravention of > -esolutions and was refusing to allow
mandated weapons inspections. The 6a(athist regime was 8uickly deposed and a rovisional
Authority was established on April $ and an ra8i 'overning Council was established in Kuly
$. espite concerted efforts to locate them, no weapons of mass destruction or evidence of
their development were found. @ocal armed resistance to the >.2.0led occupation increased
through the year, particularly among 2unni0Arab communities and former0supporters of the
6a(athist regime. !8ually disruptive has been an influ# of 4uslim =5ihadists= from across the
4iddle !ast. 4a5or armed resistance by a 2hi(a militia based in a5af erupted in April $ and
again in August $ before it was effectively repressed. nsurgency in the so0called =2unni
triangle= north and west of 6aghdad continued to grow through $ and early $9, despite
ma5or offensives against the rebel stronghold of 3allu5ah in April $ and, again, in ovember
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$. An interim ra8i government was installed in Kune $ and general elections were held,
as planned, on Kanuary , $9F the elections were boycotted by most 2unni0Arabs. As
e#pected, the ma5ority 2hi(a community captured the largest number of seats in the new ational
Assembly, with the >.2.0favored secularists gaining only a small percentage of the vote. At this
writing, efforts were ongoing to forge a ruling coalition between the two largest factions: the
religious 2hi(a and ethnic07urds. The conflict inside ra8 shows no sign of abating.
Israel
Niolent confrontations between alestinians and sraelis have continued with only short
spells of relative calm since the latest outbreak of the alestinian =ntifada= )uprising+ in
2eptember $. 6oth sides have escalated their tactics, with alestinians using suicide0
bombings of mainly civilian targets and sraelis enforcing containment, mounting militaryinvasions of alestinian enclaves )with massive military invasions carried out in the 'a"a 2trip+,
and launching preemptive attacks on alestinian militants. articularly controversial has been
srael(s construction of a security wall outside its internationally recogni"ed border. The conflict
continues despite a =road map= peace plan devised by the >.2. and announced in April $,
and Ariel 2haron(s proposed plan for sraeli disengagement from the 'a"a 2trip approved by the
7nesset in *ctober $. ?opes for a breakthrough in the stalemated situation have risen
following the death of the long0time leader of the alestinian @iberation *rgani"ation, JasserArafat, in ovember $ and the Kanuary $9 election of moderate reformer 4ahmoud Abbas
as the new alestinian leader. ?owever, ?amas( victory at the polls in Kanuary $; may slow
the peace process down considerably. The >.2. has already cancelled funds to the alestinian
Authority )A+ because ?amas is considered a terrorist organi"ation. The !uropean >nion, for
now, is still providing much needed funding, but will decide later whether the funds will
continue to flow once ?amas has formed a new government. %hether and to what e#tent srael
is willing to negotiate with the new ?amas led A will further depend on the results of the
parliamentary elections in 4arch $;.
I,ory Coast
The situation in vory Coast first began to unravel in ecember 1BBB with a military
coup that ousted resident 6edie,widely accused of corruption. %hen coup leader 'eneral 'uei
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attempted to thwart the *ctober $ presidential elections by first dis8ualifying the most
popular candidates and then nullifying the results, massive demonstrations ensued and a little
known politician, @aurent 'bagbo, was sworn in as the elected president. A second, violent
confrontation occurred in ecember $ when legislative elections were marred by political
maneuvering. After a failed coup attempt in Kanuary $1, all parties pledged to work toward
reconciliation. The reconciliation ended with an apparent coup attempt in 2eptember $$,
which was 8uickly followed by the killing of 'eneral 'uei. These events triggered an eruption
of open warfare. A rebel group, calling itself the atriotic 4ovement of vory Coast )4C+,
sei"ed control of several areas in the north. n ovember $$, two new groups emerged and
took control of territory in the west: 4ovement for eace and Kustice )4K+ and the opular
vorian 4ovement for the 'reat %est )4'*+. The @inas04arcoussis peace accords,
providing for a power0sharing government, were signed in Kanuary $ and a ceasefire betweenthe northern0based rebels and the southern government was brokered in 4ay $. 3rench
forces were deployed to enforce the accords. All sides in the conflict have decried lack of
commitment to the peace process and have continued to threaten violence, leading to stalled
implementation of the accords. n 3ebruary $, the > sent a peacekeeping mission )>*C+
to the country. n 4arch $, the government violently suppressed an opposition
demonstration. -ebel forces failed to disarm by the *ctober $ deadline and the government
launched air strikes on rebel positions in the north, killing a number of 3rench peacekeepers inthe process. 3rance retaliated by destroying the vorian air force, sparking anti03rench and anti0
foreigner attacks throughout the country. The human rights situation in the country continues to
deteriorate and authority is fragmented among government0 and rebel0controlled enclaves.
Myanmar 4.urma5
The ruling military 5unta, the 2tate eace and evelopment Council )2C, formerly
the 2tate @aw and *rder -estoration Council+, maintains its repressive hold on power, however,
the 2C has moved haltingly toward political pluralism by opening up dialogue with the main
opposition movement, the ational @eague for emocracy )@+ under pressure from
international donors. 2poradic clashes with ethnic militias continue, particularly with the 2han,
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7aren, and 7arenni groups, which have established de facto autonomy over traditional lands.
The rime 4inister announced in August $ that the government would convene a ational
Convention to draft a new constitution, the first phase of its seven0step =road map= to
democracyF ethnic groups meeting in 3ebruary $ at the Third !thnic ationalities 2eminar
re5ected the =road map= and instead called for a =tripartite dialogue= between the 2C, the
@ and other political parties, and the ethnic minorities. The 7aren ational >nion held peace
talks with the military government in Kanuary $F a second round of talks was held in
3ebruary. t was reported in August $ that the 2C had launched a military offensive
against rebels of the 7arenni ational rogressive arty )7+, the 7>, and the 2han 2tate
Army )22A+. 3resh assaults against rebel bases of the 7 and the 7> were carried out in
Kanuary $9.
-igeria
2ince the movement to impose 2hari(a law in the northern 4uslim states gained
momentum in 1BBB, tens of thousands have died in communal clashes in the central plains
region of igeria. The clashes, mainly involving ethnic0?ausa )4uslim+ and ethnic0Jorubas
)Christian+ but also 3ulani )4uslim+ and Tarok )Christian+, generally diminished in $$ but
broke out once again in 7aduna in ovember $$ and 8uickly spread. 2erious communal
violence between Christians and 4uslims continued unabated through mid0$ but haddecreased considerably in the latter monthsF resident *basan5o lifted the state of emergency in
ovember $.
2ince the movement to impose 2hari(a law in the northern 4uslim states gained
momentum in 1BBB, tens of thousands have died in communal clashes in the central plains
region of igeria.
Throughout the conflict in igeria, the distribution of oil revenues from the iger delta
has been a central element of disagreement between conflict parties. At the beginning of $;,
rebel groups have kidnapped oil workers, stolen tankers and attacked oil fields claiming to
support impoverished communities in the delta and beyond with the proceeds of their activities.
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Corruption among oil workers and government officials tied to the oil business is high and adds
fuel to the conflict. n addition, foreign oil companies are blamed for e#porting the profits
without investing in local communities.
0hilippines
The transition of power from resident !strada to his vice0president 'loria 4acapagal
Arroyo prompted a significant change in the government(s policy toward the 4oro slamic
@iberation 3ront )4@3+, which broke from the main 4oro ational @iberation 3ront )4@3+
following the latter group(s signing of a peace agreement and continued to seek an independent
4uslim state in 4indanao. n $ !strada had adopted a hard0line policy against the 4@3 and
launched a military offensive against them. Arroyo, however, initiated a more conciliatory path.
eace talks between the government and 4@3 began in 4ay $1 and a cease0fire was signedin August $1. The peace process stalled, however, in early $$ as a splinter, e#tremist group,
Abu 2ayyaf, staged high profile attacks on civilian targets and the >nited 2tates e#tended its
global war on terrorism to the hilippines. 4alaysia acted as broker for talks between the
government and the 4@3 leadership and, in 2eptember $, sent a monitoring team to
monitor a ceasefire between the two sides. The government and the 4@3 had in Kuly $
agreed to cooperate against kidnapping gangs and the slamic terrorist group Kemaah slamiah
)K+. 3ighting continues with the e#tremist Abu 2ayyaf faction.resident Arroyo(s position within the government remains unstable in $;. n
2eptember $9, she escaped impeachment on the grounds of corruption and fraud after the
opposition in parliament was not able to garner the necessary votes. As a result of a thwarted
coup d(etat by senior military official, resident Arroyo has for the first time since the demise of
the 4arcos -egime, declared an emergency status.
6ussia
The armed conflict between the -ussian government and separatist rebels in the
republic of Chechnya that had originally begun in 1BB and ended with de facto autonomy for
the enclave in 1BB; resumed in autumn 1BBB when rebels staged attacks in neighboring
agestan. The continuing war has defied -ussia(s concerted attempts to crush the resistance and
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contain the fighting. 3ailure to contain the rebels has led to increased friction with neighboring
'eorgia, which has been accused of harboring rebel forces, and periodic attacks by militants in
neighboring regions, the most serious incident being an attack on a school in 6eslan, orth
*ssetia on 2eptember 1, $, that resulted in over deaths )official countF actual numbers
may be much higher+. Chechen militants have mounted several deadly terrorist attacks as far
away as 4oscow over the course of the conflict, including the sei"ure of hostages in a
4oscow theater in *ctober $$ )that ended with -ussian troops storming the theater and
resulted in over 19 dead, including all the militants+, a metro train bombing that killed in
3ebruary $, and simultaneous commercial airliner bombings in August $ that killed B
persons. Chechen rebels launched attacks into the -ussian republic of ngushetia in Kune $,
raiding arms depots and briefly occupying the ngush nterior 4inistry, killing the acting ngush
nterior 4inister and nearly 1 others )mostly police and security forces+.n 3ebruary $9, Aslan 4askhadov, the Chechen rebel leader, was killed during a
-ussian special military operation, shortly after calling for peace talks with -ussia, a move not
supported by the entire Chechen leadership. The new leader, Abdul07halim 2aydullayev,
signaled the end of peace talks with -ussia. n an attempt to widen the conflict, 2aydullayev
formed the Caucasus 3ront. Chechen rebels continue to attack -ussian military installations and
government buildings in Chechnya. -egional elections were held under tight security in
ovember $9. The -ussian0backed >nited 3ront won more than 9O of the seats, a result thatwas decried by the separatist forces.
!omalia
2poradic armed clashes continued to plague 2omalia in $F many of the more serious
factional clashes continue to occur in the capital city, 4ogadishu, which has been carved up
among rival warlords since the ouster of the 6arre regime in 1BB1. Narious regions of 2omalia
have emerged with fairly stable regional administrations, including 2omaliland )1BB1+, untland
)1BB+, and 2outhwestern 2omalia )$$+. A Transitional ational 'overnment )T'+ was
formed in 2eptember $ but it failed to establish any effective authority inside 2omalia. n the
most recent attempt to reestablish a central authority, a peace agreement including all the main
warlords and feuding factions, was signed in airobi, 7enya on Kanuary $B, $, providing for
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a $
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referendum for southern 2udan after a si#0year interim period. umerous rounds of peace talks
held throughout $ and $ finally resulted in a comprehensive peace agreement signed on
Kanuary B, $9, establishing a permanent ceasefire between the rebels and the 2udanese
government. t was hoped the agreement, characteri"ed as =one of the most comple# peace deals
in history,= would bring an end to the twenty0year civil war.
1ganda
The conflict in north >ganda defies conventional analysis as the main rebel group, the
@ord(s -esistance Army )@-A+, has established a fairly secure base of operations in the troubled
area across the border in the 2udan. The @-A has been preying mainly on the very large refugee
and internally displaced populations in the region. A ecember 1BBB agreement between 2udan
and >ganda to cooperate in lessening the strength of armed rebel factions in the border regionsled to a 4arch $$ agreement allowing >ganda armed forces to attack @-A bases in south
2udan. *ne immediate result of the >gandan offensive in 2udan was an increase in @-A attacks
in north >ganda. The 4arch $$ agreement was e#tended in ecember $$ to allow >gandan
forces access to 2udan territory until the end of Kanuary $. espite a ;0day ceasefire and
high0level peace talks in late $, the government and the @-A failed to reach agreement on a
long0term ceasefire and e#tended peace negotiations. @-A rebels ambushed an army unit in
northern >ganda in Kanuary $9, prompting resident 4useveni to order the resumption offull0scale operations against the rebels.
!ummary
The international system is in the midst of substantial change. This may be partially due
to the end of the Cold %ar and the conse8uent break up of the eastern and western blocs as well
as the severing of relationships with states on the periphery that were once deemed strategically
significant by the superpowers. The last $ years have seen a rise in internal conflicts and the
proliferation of non0state actors. The nature of contemporary conflicts has changed in many
respects. This lesson has identified seven changes:
1. olitical goals related to foreign policy have been replaced by the consolidation of
new forms of powerF
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$. The underlying values are based on identities at the communal level and no longer
on universal principlesF
. 4obili"ation is achieved through fear and coercion rather than a sense of
nationalismF
. The sources of e#ternal support have shifted from superpowers to iasporas,
mercenaries and bad neighborsF
9. Asymmetrical warfareF
;. Civilians have increasingly become the target of violenceF andF