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Premium Analysis • www.etmanalytics.com/is • Johannesburg +2711-875-8556 • Copyright © 2016 ETM Investment Services (Pty) Ltd

Investment Strategy Journal Volume 45 • February 2016

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ETM Global Strategy Letter – 1st Quarter 2016 Showdown: King Dollar vs. Emperor Gold

"How did you go bankrupt?" "Two ways, gradually and

then suddenly." – E. Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Hemingway’s literary quip got so famous because it

tapped into a visceral truth in economic and financial

affairs: things are fine right up until they’re not. It’s

roughly the opposite of the famous old military saying

“hurry up and wait.” When big macro cycles unfold, it

often feels like a case of wait, then hurry up.

Consider how oblivious volatility was in 2014 to

what was just around the corner – a commodity crash,

equity bear market, EM currency thrashing, and China

potentially spinning out of control. This deflation

phase is a result of the great dupe that is money print-

ing. How quickly the illusion can unravel

when the taps are turned off.

At ETM, we’ve maintained throughout

the post-GFC period that not only was the

global financial and economic system not

repaired by radical monetary and fiscal

activism, but also it was probably made

much more fragile by it. We got extend-

and-pretend instead of real free market

reforms - the proverbial kicking of the can,

finger in the dyke etc.

For those who take their cue from

stock markets, it seemed to have worked.

But rising stock markets over time are al-

ways just a sign of cheap and easy lever-

age and inflation and with it the inevitable

flipside, bankruptcy and deflation.

Few countries exhibit these phenomena quite as

vividly as China. We think China is tremendously frag-

ile. The debt orgy by Chinese crony corporations and

regional state fiefdoms, indulged by the roaring ex-

pansion of bank balance sheets and endorsed by Bei-

jing’s god-complex politburos, has created perhaps

the largest unsustainable business cycle ever seen.

China’s equity and currency market remind us that the

façade fades gradually and then suddenly. As Beijing

deploys its big policy guns to save face, it’s hard to

see this ending well for the renminbi.

We continue to emphasise the importance of the

dollar liquidity cycle (adjacent chart). The season is

winter, and a dollar bull market winter (at least to

date) at that, which is a one-two sucker punch for the

gigantic QE-funded carry trade. Global financial win-

ters are indeed seasons for portfolio

defensiveness. But they are also

times of opportunity. After all, some-

times the best form of defence is

attack.

Russell Lamberti

MD & Strategist, ETM IS

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0%

20%

40%

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Dollar Liquidity CycleUS Money Supply (AMS) 5-year %ch v Dollar Index (DXY)

Winter Winter+$ Bull Mkt Summer

Source: St. Louis Fed; Michael Pollaro; ETM Analytics

US

recession

Latam Crisis

Commodity

slump

US/Japan

Debt & Stock

Mkt Booms

S&L Crisis

US recession

EM & Tech

Boom

Asian

Crisis LTCM/Russian Crisis

Dotcom crash

Global Real Estate

& Stock Bubbles

Sub-

prime

GFCEU Debt

Crisis

Global

Stock Mkt

BoomCommodity

Boom China

Debt

Boom

Arab

Spring

Commodity

bust

--- AMS ←

--- DXY →

http://www.etmanalytics.com/is

ETM Global Strategy Letter • FEBRUARY 16 2016


OUR AUGUST ’15 VIEWS

HAVE HELD UP WELL IN

A DEEPENING DOLLAR

WINTER

US BOND BULL AND

CURVE-FLATTENER

PLAYING OUT STRONGLY

DOLLAR BULL TREND

HAS SLOWED

STILL BEARISH FRENCH

SOVEREIGN DEBT

Recap from the August 2015 letter In our August 2015 global strategy letter, we made the case for why we

thought the dollar bull market would extend well into 2016. We looked

at some short term market dynamics in gold, and also highlighted the

looming threats emanating from China and renminbi devaluation risk.

In this letter, we revisit the dollar question and explain why the case for

gold ownership is again very compelling.

What we got right in August 2015

- We reiterated our long-held view that US stocks would experience a

10-15% correction before year-end, a move which materialised al-

most immediately after publication. The S&P 500 was down 13% off

the May 2015 highs by January 2016.

- Bullish US 10-year bond and US curve flattener. 10yr-2yr yield

spread down from 142bp to 103 and 10-year yield down to 1.70%.

- We thought dollar gains would slow in Q3 and Q4, particularly vs the

majors, but we were more bullish tactically and strategically vs. EMs.

DXY is up only 1.8% and the major trade-weighted index up 2.7%.

- We favoured going tactically and strategically short/underweight

European banks. EURO STOXX Banks ETF down 30%.

- Strategically short/underweight UK property. UK listed real estate

companies and REITS ETF (UCITS) down 15%.

- We continued to warn of China risk, massive PBoC stimulus, and

RMB devaluation. The RMB has fallen 1.7% against the dollar.

- We warned of EM equity risk. $EEM is down 11%.

- We liked being tactically underweight gold (in dollars), but strategi-

cally neutral with an OTM call hedge at a $1255 strike. Gold quickly

fell 9% but subsequently rallied 20% to $1260.

…what we got wrong

- Pound Sterling proved less resilient in the near term than we ex-

pected (GBP-USD down 8%). Our strategically bearish call is in play,

though.

- Asian currency basket has proved more resilient in the near term

than majors ex-dollar (DXY up 1.8% while ADXY down 0.9%). RMB

risk still a bearish threat to ADXY basket in 2016 though.

…and where the jury’s still out?

- Dollar bull market for much of 2016 and DXY target of 110.

- Strategically bearish French sovereign debt view. France/US 10-

year yield spread shaping to narrow while French 5-year benchmark

CDS spread has widened, but both not conclusively enough yet. We

nonetheless strengthen our conviction in being short France/US

yield spreads and long French CDS.

- EM rate hike risk. Some big EMs (Chile, Mexico, S.Africa, Colombia,

Egypt, Peru) have hiked since August 2015, as expected, but not

hard and fast enough yet to fit snuggly with our EM repricing thesis.

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Key Market Developments Base 100 on 21 August

Source: Bloomberg, ETM

August 2015

Strategy Letter Now

DXY

CNYUSD

EURO STOXX

Banks

$EEM

GoldS&P500

US 10y/2y

spread

UK

Property

Russell 2000




BEARISH DOLLAR CHO-

RUS GETTING LOUDER

FED EASING DOES NOT

ALWAYS WEAKEN THE

DOLLAR

…BUT TENDS TO WHEN

EASING INTO DOLLAR

OVERVALUATION

…& AFTER THE FED’S

BEEN MUCH TIGHTER

THAN PEERS

Is the dollar bull market over? Clients know that we’ve been a proponent of the dollar bull market

thesis since early 2014. But for most of the past year, the dollar largely

stagnated against the other majors. Through that sideways trend, we’ve

argued the dollar was setting up for another leg higher. While this has

been frustrated on the DXY, the trade-weighted dollar against major

trading partners has indeed broken out into another bullish phase.

But there is a growing bearish dollar chorus. According to this view, the

market priced in much stronger US growth and much tighter US policy

compared to the rest of the world than is materialising. As perception

aligns with reality and US growth expectations and Fed hawkishness

are downgraded, so the dollar bull thesis collapses. On top of this, it is

asserted that ‘long dollar’ is a “crowded trade.”

While compelling and plausible, one should consider the following:

1. Does Fed easing (or chickening out on hawkishness) necessarily

weaken the dollar?

2. How does the dollar behave in liquidity winters and recessions?

3. Does a bull market have to be predicated on just one bull thesis?

FED EASING & THE DOLLAR: Fed easing is no guarantee of dollar

weakness. When the Fed eased from cheap dollar valuations, after

tightening, and during a time of ex-US macro risk, the dollar

strengthened (the early 80s, late 90s & early 10s). When it eased from

cheap dollar valuations and through recessions, the dollar was neutral

(the early 90s & GFC). Easing from cyclically high valuations in boom

cycles to counter equity market bear risks weakened the dollar (the

mid-80s & early 2000s).

So Fed easing doesn’t automatically mean dollar weakness. However,

after an already mature dollar bull cycle (nearly five years and +40%)

and potentially a lot of pain already priced into EM, decisive Fed easing

could reverse the bull market. There’s been a long stock market boom

cycle turning into a nasty bear market, and a dollar cyclically

overvalued. If the Fed eases into this, it could well be “green zone”

easing as per the adjacent chart (the mid-80s & early 2000s).

But if a “green zone” period lurks, then we should also note that the

previous two green zone easing cycles first saw the dollar gain ~10%

before peaking and embarking on a big bear cycle.

Blue zone easing (dollar bull) seems less likely. While there is

potentially a lot more ex-US macro risk still to manifest, sitting

anywhere from European banks to China, to the EM carry trade unwind,

the dollar is not undervalued like at the start of previous blue zone

easing cycles (the early 80s, late 90s & early 10s).

Regarding the other major central banks (peers), in blue zone Fed

easing (dollar bull), US rates tend to be higher than peer rates and fall

slower than peer rates. In grey zone (dollar neutral) Fed easing, US

rates tend to fall sooner, faster and below peer rates, and they tend to

fall sooner and faster in green zone Fed easing (dollar bear).

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Hu

nd

red

s

Fed easing doesn't simply = $ weaknessReal trade-weighted $ (major) during easy money phases

TW $ Major (left) Fed funds/Shadow short rate Money Supply y/y%ch

Source: St. Louis Fed, ETM Analytics

$ weakness$ strength $ neutral

$ Avg




FED HAS TO MAKE

LARGE ABOUT-TURN TO

SPARK EASING CYCLE

…BUT THEN PEERS MAY

ALSO EASE SHARPLY,

NEGATING THE $ EFFECT

DOLLAR BEARS NEED

ANOTHER LIQUIDITY

SUMMER CYCLE

THE DOLLAR TENDS TO

DO WELL IN RECES-

SIONS & RISK-OFF

If the Fed is near to making a dramatic about-turn in monetary policy, it

could spark further easing among the other central banks, but arguably

not as much at the margin (barring perhaps the BoE). This policy would

be more consistent with green zone (dollar bear) easing. That would

probably have to involve more QE to provide the monetary catalyst

needed since bank lending won’t provide the necessary stimulus. If the

Fed is just going to pause on rate hikes or cut back to zero and hold

there, or even dip into negative rates, at best that constitutes blue zone

easing (dollar bull) since this won’t spark enough bank credit stimulus.

Neither of these outcomes necessitates dollar weakness whereas each

is associated historically with at least short-term dollar gains.

WINTER, RECESSIONS & THE DOLLAR: Though dollar liquidity cycles we

find that the dollar is either strong or neutral during winters and neutral

or weaker during summers, depending on valuation and relative

monetary policy. The dollar may only weaken in the next liquidity

summer, which may take a new and gigantic Fed QE programme.

In recessions, we typically see the greenback appreciate into or through

the period. The main exception to this was the 1991 recession. The

dollar benefits from global demand for cash and liquidity. To the extent

that recession risk is rising for 2016/17, the historical record suggests

the dollar is likely to trade bullishly through such a phase.

MORE THAN ONE BULL THESIS: Basing the rationale for the end of the

dollar bull market on the end of the strong growth/hawkish Fed thesis

assumes there could only be one rationale for a bull market. The

previous two bull markets exhibited more than one bull thesis. In the

80s, the dollar rallied on a liquidity-tightening recession period and

then because US growth was outperforming. In the 90s, it rallied

because of tighter monetary policy and EM risk, and then on domestic

financial risk. The present cycle could easily exhibit a similar shift from

one bull thesis to another; from strong growth/tight Fed to growth risks,

financial risks, and a clamouring for dollar liquidity.

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Fed Easing v Other Central BanksMain Policy rates/Shadow Short Rates

UK Discount/SSR

Fed funds/Shadow short rate

EZ Discount/SSR

Japan Discount/SSR

Source: St. Louis Fed, Krippner, ETM

$ strength

$ neutral

$ weakness SSR

→




DOLLAR BULL CYCLE IS

MATURE

…BUT SIGNS OF IMMI-

NENT BEAR MARKET

ARE UNCONVINCING

RISK: AGGRESSIVE QE

THAT SHATTERS FED

CREDIBILITY

10-15% HIGHER DOLLAR

PLAUSIBLE

BOTTOM LINE: The dollar is clearly in a mature stage of its bull cycle,

having rallied for nearly five years and 40% off its cyclical low in mid-

2011. The Fed is apparently being forced to rethink its tightening plans

as per our long-held view that QE4 was more likely than a 1% Fed funds

rate. Equally, though, the Fed can’t change the liquidity season from

summer to winter without a large, aggressive QE programme,

something it may only be willing to do after a series of rate cuts to ZIRP

and maybe NIRP. The liquidity winter is therefore still firmly in play and

recession signals, while mixed and atypical, are, at a minimum, flagging

significant growth dislocations. The stock market is falling and haven

demand is firmly on the up. Some big central banks are easing hard.

On balance we remain unconvinced the dollar bull trend is over,

although 2016 may well be shaping up as a turning-point year.

RISK: If Fed credibility shatters in the coming months as rapidly

deteriorating financial conditions force it into an ultra-aggressive QE4,

or possibly even a “QE4ThePeople” Zimbabwe-style debt monetisation,

the “clamour for dollar cash thesis” could be overrun by the “new dollar

carry trade” thesis.

INVESTMENT IMPLICATION: How much more can dollar bulls squeeze

out of the dollar’s run? On balance, another 10-15% remains plausible.

We’ve made a case for more upside tactically, but gains from here start

to spring-load the next bear market which could be every bit as

ferocious as the bull cycle. The better strategic trade may be to plan to

position for the next phase when the dollar bear re-emerges.

SOME CURRENCY CHARTS

Japanese negative rates have met with a yen bid. Markets are now

speculating that the BoJ will have to introduce another surge in QQE to

counter yen bull forces. The short term chart pattern is yen bullish and

may feed into an aggressive BoJ response. However in 2014, the JPY

broke above a 25-year trend line. It’s quite plausible the market will

retest that trend around 105 in the short term. If that holds the pattern

may stay bullish JPY (bearish yen). For now, it’s hard to see dollar gains

coming from yen losses.




1.15 STILL A KEY LEVEL

ON THE EURO

…BUT MAY YET NEED TO

RECKON WITH PARITY

STERLING LOOKING

BEARISH

YUAN RISKS LURKING

DESPITE PBOC TRYING

TO KEEP IT FIRM

Euro consolidating in a well-worn range with 1.15 still a key level to

watch. If 1.15 is broken is may jeopardise the dollar bull outlook.

…but the euro may still need to reckon with long term trend support

around parity and a longer bear cycle.

Meanwhile, Sterling appears to have capitulated below long term trend

resistance and may have 12-18 months left in this bear cycle.

Markets are also increasingly speculating against China’s yuan.




GOLD’S RECENT GAINS

ARE TELLING IN A DE-

FLATIONARY WINTER

HAS THE SHARP RALLY

BROKEN THE BEAR?

GOLD TRADING LIKE

THERE’S RISING FEAR

WHAT IS GOLD?

IT’S THE TRANSCENDENT

STORE OF VALUE

Why Gold is a Portfolio Necessity As 2016 shifts into top gear, one of the most important trends is the

resilience of gold amid many falling prices around it. Gold’s already

done a lot of its falling since 2011, and in a dollar liquidity winter that

exerts strong deflationary tendencies, gold’s recent gains are telling.

The yellow metal had around four bear market rallies from mid-2013

and none of them were able to break the bear trend. But the fifth one

may have. Last week’s breakout, as Janet Yellen mused over negative

interest rates, may be very significant.

At a time when sellers are pounding commodities, stocks, junk bonds

and various currencies, gold’s recent resilience is impressive. It sug-

gests the weaker hands on the long gold trade may have mostly been

flushed out and it points to an underlying monetary system and central

bank credibility risk amid a global business cycle slump.

We highlighted this theme in a video to clients in September 2015. You

can click on the image “Gold De-Coded” to watch it (8 minutes).

WHAT IS GOLD?

It is not surprising that most don’t understand gold as a monetary store

of value. There are two main reasons why. The first is because there is

no one alive who can remember what life was like when households

and commercial banks held and traded in gold as money. Even under

Bretton Woods, gold was far removed from the ordinary man and

boarded up in the esoteric world of central bank reserves. There is al-

most no-one with an experiential knowledge of gold as a monetary

store of value. The second reason is propaganda. For a fiduciary fiat

currency system to work, other financial media have to be discredited,

hence the constant mainstream gold bashing – “barbarous relic”,

“yellow worthless lump” etc.

A view on gold fundamentally hinges off what you think gold is. If you

believe that it’s a useless piece of metal, then you won’t own it. If you

think it’s a commodity like copper or coal, then you might sometimes

own it, and sometimes not. If you believe that it is a monetary store of

value, then you’ll probably own it permanently in some quantity that

might vary depending on your circumstances.

To us, gold is undoubtedly a monetary store of value. In fact, it is fun-

damentally the transcendent store of value. Every other discussion on

gold is ancillary to this.


https://vimeo.com/139678281



GOLD'S VALUE TRANS-

CENDS TIME & PLACE

GOLD DOES WELL

THROUGH ‘TRANSITION

NODES.'

GLOBE CLEARLY IN A

MAJOR & UNCERTAIN

TRANSITION PHASE

HAVING GOLD IN A

PORTFOLIO IS PRUDENT

In a study of 750 years of gold and inflation data we conclude that:

Gold protects value against monetary debasement and inflation.

Gold stores value through systemic political change, regime

change, wars and social upheaval.

Gold preserves value through systemic economic change,

technological change, repeated business cycles, corporate and

sovereign bankruptcies.

In short, gold's value transcends time and place. Its value does not fall

to zero as companies, sovereign securities or fiat currencies often do.

Its universal acceptance and portability mean it transcends geography.

Companies may trade globally, but they operate in specific locations.

Sovereign debt securities are tied to individual governments of

particular territories. Real estate is inherently geographic. Nationalised

fiat currency has jurisdictional restrictions.

Gold bullion is therefore at the rarefied intersection of being a liquid,

transcendent store of value with no counterparty risk (although non-

trivial confiscation or theft risk). It can also be linked into digital pay-

ment systems yet is wholly physical. These properties are rare.

TRANSITION OR STABILITY?

In stable systems or complacent periods, the need for the services ren-

dered by gold is quite small. By contrast, there will tend to be signifi-

cant spikes in gold demand into and through major transition periods.

If one accepts this, then it is worth considering the following questions:

1. Is the world/your country in a transitional or upheaval period?

2. Is any human lifespan likely or unlikely to experience a transitional

or upheaval period?

Asking Question 1 another way, is the monetary order and economic

and political balance of power stabilising or transitioning?

In our view, the international system is unambiguously in a state of

transition rather than stabilisation. This transition is increasingly at risk

of being a disorderly one. QE and NIRP are undermining the structural

integrity of the financial system. The West has arrived in a fiscal cul-de-

sac. Much the G20 faces peak debt. Nation states are losing power to

non-state actors. This dynamic mix of transitory forces is already result-

ing in social unrest and profound political instability, combined with

state desperation, increased regulation, taxation and stagnation. It is,

in essence, a giant tug of war between the nation-state-centric forces of

centralisation, and non-state forces of devolution, embodied in EU poli-

tics.

The answer to Question 2 is that the likelihood of anyone living an en-

tire lifespan without experiencing a systemic transition period is ex-

tremely remote. Whether it be war, political system change, financial

and economic crisis, monetary regime change, sovereign bankruptcy,

hyperinflation, or disruptive technological shifts, it’s almost sure that

every human being will live through one or more systemic transitions in

their lifetime. So even if the answer to 1 is “no”, holding gold in a bal-

anced wealth portfolio would remain a profoundly necessary, prudent

long-term strategy.

GOLD IS A PERMANENT PORTFOLIO NECESSITY

We remain convinced that gold is a permanent necessity in a balanced

wealth portfolio. While this might range from 5% to 50% depending on

time horizon and trading and risk appetite, the idea of not having any

allocation to physical gold must be considered grossly imprudent. Gold

should form a permanent part of cash allocation, and gold miners a

cyclical component of equity allocation.

With gold having sold off nearly 50% from its highs in 2011, currently

bucking the commodity broader selloff, and offering a haven during a

time of potentially unravelling central bank credibility, we are strategi-

cally bullish the metal. Tactically, a final dollar bull leg could keep a cap

on gold although it doesn’t have to. Gold and the dollar can rise at the

same time.

Short term trading action can be deceptive, but the action this past

week may be indicative of a process of shifting from bear to bull market.

Therefore, in establishing strategic gold exposure, we favour moving

into a firmly overweight gold allocation.




FURTHER DOLLAR

GAINS SPRING-LOAD

THE NEXT BEAR MKT

WE ARE STRATEGICALLY

BULLISH GOLD

DOLLAR AND GOLD MAY

BE POISED TO RISE IN

AN EPIC FACEOFF

WE REMAIN HIGH CON-

VICTION ON LONG US

BONDS & A FLATTENING

YIELD CURVE

Investment Implications ~ Dollar: Fed rate cuts this year appear to have become a majority (or

near-majority) view. But until the Fed throws more QE at the issue,

it’s not clear that this alone undercuts the dollar bull theme. Even if

the Fed gets more aggressively loose through NIRP and/or QE, the

reasons for this would be a global panic which could feed into

tactical gains. But further dollar gains, particularly in a panicked QE

scenario, stretch the dollar to extreme overvaluation and would

present an opportunity for the coming short dollar trade.

Positioning: Tactically bullish dollar; strategically neutral to bearish.

~ Gold: There are negative central bank rates and bond yields across

much of the developed world. To pass negative rates through to

consumers you need to ban cash. European banks are under stress,

and sovereigns pose a bail-in risk – money in the bank is risky. Who

backstops the banks? The central banks; but they’re running into

the cul-de-sac of their grand monetary experiment. This should be a

sparkling cocktail for gold, and it’s no surprise the metal is resilient.

Gold markets will probably be choppy along with much else in the

near term, but this looks like an excellent strategic opportunity for

gold bullion and arguably even better for heavily unloved silver.

Positioning: Tactically bullish, strategically bullish gold and silver.

~ Gold miners: As the globe moves deeper into an equity bear market

and dollar liquidity winter, it’s plausible we witness gold and the

dollar rising in tandem. These periods are usually short-lived, but

they are very bullish gold in EM currency.

Positioning: Tactically bullish gold miners with exceptionally high

leverage to the local-currency gold price.

~ US bonds: Until the Fed fights a panic with big QE, we remain bullish

US long bonds, and we also still favour a US curve flattener. The US

10yr-2yr yield spread broke below a key support level last week.

Position: long US 10-year bond; target 50bp on 10yr-2yr spread;

strategic long US 10yr/short French 10yr.

~ The Fed: We’ll deal with Fed policy in more detail soon, but a quick

comment here is that the market is turning far more dovish in its

expectations. Whether this is a short-term overreaction remains to

be seen, but strategically we still think markets don’t fully

appreciate the structural imperative for ultra-loose, ultra-activist Fed

policy. QE-NIRP is highly plausible but markets (Eurodollar futures et

al) are not priced for such aggressive policy action through the cycle.

Positioning: Favour lower rates across the curve and assets poised

to make reflationary comebacks like inflation-linked bonds.



Investment Strategy Journal ©

Russell Lamberti

MD & Strategist

[email protected]

SOUTH AFRICA

Tel: +2711-8758556

Block 5, Fourways Golf Park

Roos Street

Johannesburg

South Africa (2055)

Copyright 2016, ETM Investment Services (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.

ETM Investment Services (Pty) Ltd obtains information for its analyses

from sources, which it considers reliable, but ETM does not guarantee the

accuracy or completeness of its analyses or any information contained

therein. ETM makes no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the results

obtained by any person or entity from the use of its information and

analyses, and makes no warranties or merchantability or fitness for a

particular purpose. In no event shall ETM be liable for indirect or incidental,

special or consequential damages, regardless of whether such damages

were foreseen or unforeseen. ETM shall be indemnified and held harmless

from any actions, claims, proceedings, or liabilities with respect to its

information and analysis.

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