Upload
bawardia
View
234
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/14/2019 401 Planning
1/18
Chapter 3Planning and Forecasting
8/14/2019 401 Planning
2/18
apter ect ves
Explain the needs for planning and analyze a planningmodel
Be able to solve forecasting problems
8/14/2019 401 Planning
3/18
PlanningProvides method for identifying objectivesDesign sequence of programs and activities to achieveobjectivesPlan to plan
People implementing plan should be involved in preparingplan
8/14/2019 401 Planning
4/18
Planning Process Decision MakingProcess
(this occurs as a diagram in the book & is iterative)Define the decision problemSearch for data and information
Generate alternative courses of actionAnalyze feasible alternativesSelect best course of actionImplement decision and evaluate results
8/14/2019 401 Planning
5/18
Planning
What is the Problem/Purpose?Establish Goal/ObjectivesWhat Client Need Is Being Satisfied by the Project?
Identify Success Criteria
8/14/2019 401 Planning
6/18
The Foundation for Planning
Vision : what the firm wants to be in the future (when novision: Vietnam war ex.)Mission : bold goal with clear finish line and specific timeframe, what do we want to doPurpose : fundamental reason for firms existenceGoal/Aim : What? Why? For whom? How? Is it consistentwith organization? (official and operative)Objectives : Clarifies goals, how do we go about it?
Must be reviewed often to see whether they are still valid
8/14/2019 401 Planning
7/18
Planning Develop Objectives
S pecificM easurableA ttainable
R ealisticT ime-limitedOutcome - what is to be accomplishedTime Frame - expected completion date
Measure - metrics for successAction - how the objective will be met
8/14/2019 401 Planning
8/18
Strategic Planning Business a company is in Business acompany wants to be in Business Portfolio Matrix Cashcows (milk profits) Stars (invest more) Large Small Dogs(eliminate) Slow-growth ??? (increase market) Fast-growth Market share MARKET
8/14/2019 401 Planning
9/18
Strategic Mgmt. of Tech.
Base tech.: firm must master these to be effectivecompetitors, invest in R&D to maintain competenceKey tech. : provides competitive advantage, can embedfeatures to get better efficiency in production processPacing tech. : could become tomorrows key tech.
Issue is to maintain balance between key andpacing techs.
8/14/2019 401 Planning
10/18
Some planning concepts
Responsibility for planning: rests with top and middle level mgrs.Must estb. enterprise objectives, overall strategy, planningguidelines, review and redirect planning effortPlanning premises: the anticipated env. in which plans are
expected to operate. Future economic conditions, govt. decisions,competition and markets. Develop contingency plans if premisesgo wrongPlanning horizon: how far one should plan. Depends on nature of business and plan. Ex. Nuclear power plantSystem of plans: yearly forecastsPolicies and procedures: policies -> clear, flexible, communicated,procedures -> SOP
8/14/2019 401 Planning
11/18
Forecasting
Forecast salesEssential preliminary to effective planningEngineering manager must be concerned with both future
markets and future technology
8/14/2019 401 Planning
12/18
Why Forecasting?
New facility planningProduction planningWork force scheduling
8/14/2019 401 Planning
13/18
Long Range Forecasts
Design new productsDetermine capacity for new productLong range supply of materials
8/14/2019 401 Planning
14/18
Short Range Forecasts
Amount of inventory for next monthAmount of product to produce next weekHow much raw material delivered next week
Workers schedule next week
8/14/2019 401 Planning
15/18
Forecasting Methods
Quantitative Methods Expert/executive Opinion, DelphiHistorical (sales force composite): regional managers asktheir salesmenUser expectation: ask customers, good if few customersChoice of method: many methods can be combinedQualitative Methods Simple moving averageWeighted moving averageExponential smoothingRegression models (simple/multiple regressions)
8/14/2019 401 Planning
16/18
Delphi Method
Eliminates effects of interactions between membersExperts do not need to know who other experts are
Delphi coordinator asks for opinions, forecasts onsubject
8/14/2019 401 Planning
17/18
Delphi Method, cont
Develop objective of forecastDetermine number of participantsSelect and contact participants
Develop first questionnaire and submit
Coordinator analyzes responses
8/14/2019 401 Planning
18/18
Delphi Method, cont
Develop second questionnaire based on results of firstAnalyze responsesRounds continue until consensus reached or experts
opinions cease to change