BOOK REVIEWS Man and Environment in the Great Basin, reviewed by
C. N. Warren; NursingHistory, V. G. Drachman; High-Latitude Space
Plasma Physics, R. L. Lysak;Geochemistry of Sedimentary Ore
Deposits, W. D. Goodfellow; BooksReceived.. 1225
REPORTS Ethane Ocean on Titan: J. I. Lunine, D. J. Stevenson, Y.
L. Yung .1229Heat Transfer in Magma in situ: J. C. Dunn, C. R.
Carrigan, R. P. Wemple 1231Mesozoic Mammals from Arizona: New
Evidence on Mammalian Evolution:
F. A. Jenkins, Jr., A. W. Crompton, W. R. Downs
.1233Determination of Thermal Histories of Archeological Cereal
Grains with Electron
Spin Resonance Spectroscopy: G. C. Hillman et al ..35A Climatic
Freshening of the Deep Atlantic North of 50N over the Past 20
Years:
P. G. Brewer et al. ...........*.*...X......v 1237Identification
of the Receptor for Antigen and Major Histocompatibility
Complex
on Human Inducer T Lymphocytes: S. C. Meuer et al .
.................... 1239 eBromine Residue at Hydrophilic Region
Influences Biological Activity of
Aplysiatoxin, a Tumor Promoter: K. Shimomura et al. .....
............... 1242Nitrous Oxide Production in Nearshore Marine
Sediments: S. P. Seitzinger,
M. E. Q. Pilson, S. W. Nixon .........
.................................. 1244Ethanol Modulation of Opiate
Receptors in Cultured Neural Cells:
M. E. Charness, A. S. Gordon, I. Diamond
............................... 1246The Human Gene for the P
Subunit of Nerve Growth Factor Is Located on the
Proximal Short Arm of Chromosome 1: U. Francke et al. .....
............ 1248Technical Comments: Time Course of a-Flupenthixol
Action Explains "Response
Artifacts" of Neuroleptic Action on Brain Stimulation Reward: D.
Corbettet al.; C. Bielajew; R. A. Wise; A. Ettenberg, G. F. Koob,
F. E. Bloom;Olfactory Function After Bulbectomy: M. Meredith et
al.; J. W. Wrightand J. W. Harding.1251an . W.
Hrig..................................................... 15
---C
Climate anomalies during the NorthernHemisphere winter season
(December1982-February 1983) believed to be as-sociated with the
abnormally warmsea-surface temperatures in the equato-rial Pacific
Ocean. The white cloudsymbol represents the region of en-hanced
rainfall and the streamlineswith arrows represent
circulationanomalies at the jet stream (about 10-kilometer) level.
See page 1195. [Datafrom P. A. Arkin, Climate AnalysisCenter,
National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration, Washington,D.C.;
analysis by J. M. Wallace, Uni-versity of Washington, Seattle]
16 December 1983, Volume 222, Number 4629
AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR UpgraTHE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE
Science serves its readers as a forum for the presenta- Each
yition and discussion of important issues related to the sands of
padvancement of science, including the presentation ofminority or
conflicting points of view, rather than by are centrapublishing
only material on which a consensus has been ses, and 1reached.
Accordingly, all articles published in Sci-ence-including
editorials, news and comment, and managingbook reviews-are signed
and reflect the individual ma requviews of the authors and not
official points of view Y qadopted by the AAAS or the institutions
with which the inherentl)authors are affliated. and scien
Editorial BoardMany c1983: FREDERICK R. BLATTNER, BERNARD F.
BURKE, ManyCHARLES L. DRAKE, ARTHUR F. FINDEIS, E. PETER aries
andGEIDUSCHEK, GLYNN ISAAC, MILTON RUSSELL, WIL- and otherLIAM P.
SLICHTER, JOHN WOOD1984: ARNOLD DEMAIN, NEAL E. MILLER, FREDER- not
clearlICK MOSTELLER, ALLEN NEWELL, RUTH PATRICK,BRYANT W. RossITER,
VERA C. RUBIN, SOLOMON H. techniqueSNYDER, PAUL E. WAGGONER
flexibility
Publisher: WILLIAM D. CAREY ImprovAssociate Publisher: ROBERT V.
ORMES technolog
Editor: PHILIP H. ABELSON The NatiEditorial Staff rsacAssistant
Managing Editor: JOHN E. RINGLE research
Production Editor: ELLEN E. MURPHY It couldBusiness Manager:
HANS NUSSBAUM related toNews Editor: BARBARA J. CULLITONNews and
Comment: COLIN NORMAN (deputy editor), gy-related
JEFFREY L. Fox, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, ELIOT MAR- the criticaSHALL,
R. JEFFREY SMITH, MARJORIE SUN, JOHNWALSH the intereEuropean
Correspondent: DAVID DICKSONContributing Writer: LUTHER J. CARTER
past expeResearch News: ROGER LEWIN (deputy editor), RICH- science
o
ARD A. KERR, GINA KOLATA, JEAN L. MARX, THOMASH. MAUGH II,
ARTHUR L. ROBINSON, M. MITCHELL which daWALDROPAdministrative
Assistant, News: SCHERRAINE MACK; important
Editorial Assistant, News: FANNIE GROOM support gSenior Editors:
ELEANORE BUTZ, MARY DORFMAN, portion oRUTH KULSTADAssociate
Editors: SYLVIA EBERHART, CAITILIN GOR- Until r(
DON, LOIS SCHMITTAssistant Editors: MARTHA COLLINS, STEPHEN
undertak4
KEPPLE, EDITH MEYERS ment of tBookReviews: KATHERINE LIVINGSTON,
Editor; LINm
DA HEISERMAN, JANET KEGG concentrELetters: CHRISTINE GILBERT
ParticulalCopy Editor: ISABELLA BOULDINProduction: JOHN BAKER;
HOLLY BISHOP, ELEANOR term fund
WARNER; JEAN ROCKWOOD, SHARON RYAN, BEVERLY to variouSHIELDS
Covers, Reprints, and Permissions: GRAYCE FINGER, years it
IEditor; GERALDINE CRUMP, CORRINE HARRIS
Guide to Scientific Instruments: RICHARD G. SOMMER
responsivAssistant to the Editor: SUSAN ELLIOTT In receAssistant to
the Associate Publisher: ROSE LOWERYAssistant to the Managing
Editor: NANCY HARTNAGEL ties. It haMembership Recruitment:
GWENDOLYN HUDDLE EPA an'Member and Subscription Records: ANN
RAGLAND ,
EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massachu- some ousetts Ave., NW,
Washington, D.C. 20005. Area code "basic or202. General Editorial
Office, 467-4350; Book Reviews,467-4367; Guide to Scientific
Instruments, 467-4480; also planNews and Comment, 467-4430;
Reprints and Permis-sions, 467-4483; Research News, 467-4321.
Cable: Ad- substantivancesci, Washington. For "Information for
Contribu- involve, 4tors," write to the editorial office or see
page xi, FScience, 30 September 1983. For seBUSINESS
CORRESPONDENCE: Area Code 202. hold bMembership and Subscriptions:
467-4417. Shou (
Advertising Representatives federal pDirector: EARL J. SCHERAGO
term riskProduction Manager: GINA REILLYAdvertising Sales Manager:
RICHARD L. CHARLES dispassicMarketing Manager: HERBERT L. BURKLUND
could ha,
Sales: NEW YORK, N.Y. 10036: Steve Hamburger, 1515Broadway
(212-730-1050); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: traditionsC. Richard
Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); CHI- involvemCAGO, ILL.
60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N.Michigan Ave. (312-337-4973);
BEVERLY HILLS, CALIF. concentr90211: Winn Nance, 11 1 N. La Cienega
Blvd. (213-657- improve2772); SAN JOSE, CALIF. 95112: Bob Brindley,
310 S. 16St. (408-998-4690); DORSET, VT. 05251: Fred W. Dief-
gy-focusifenbach, Kent Hill Rd. (802-867-5581). RADVERTISING
CORRESPONDENCE: Tenth floor, M. Gs1515 Broadway, New York 10036
(212-730-1050). Policy, C
SCIENCE
[ding Policy Analysis: The NSF Roleear public and private
organizations commission or perform thou-policy-focused analyses in
which issues of science and technologyally important. This blizzard
of risk assessments, decision analy-the like plays an increasingly
important role in the processes ofgoverning, and regulating our
technological society. While they
tire a few days or several years to perform, such analyses arey
short-term. They must use available strategies, analytical
tools,Ice to inform and enlighten the policy-making process.Df
these analyses have been disappointing. Too often the
bound-assumptions are not adequately defined and justified;
scientific
r uncertainties are inadequately characterized; issues of value
arely delineated and may be confused with issues of fact;
analyticals are inadequate; and virtues such as simplicity,
robustness,and transparency are lost in a haze of technical
verbiage.
zing the quality of policy analysis that involves science andDry
is the responsibility of many groups, both public and private.ional
Science Foundation, charged with the support of basicin science and
engineering, has a unique opportunity to contribute.support
research, development, and selected demonstrationsbasic strategies,
tools, and assumptions in science- and technolo-
d policy analysis; encourage the development of mechanisms foral
review and evaluation of analyses and analysis methods, both inst
of quality control and in the expectation that we can learn
fromrience; support selected "model" policy studies with
substantiver engineering content which could serve as benchmarks
againsty-to-day analyses could be measured; support policy studies
ont problems that fall between the cracks of mission-agency
agendas;graduate education in this field; and finally, encourage a
modest)f basic research to be more responsive to policy-focused
needs.ecently, NSF has supported some of these activities but has
noten a broad program to support fundamental long-term improve-the
field. Since the late 1970's NSF's policy resources have beenated
in its Division of Policy Research and Analysis (PRA).rly in its
early years, PRA devoted some of its resources to long-damental
work. However, the provision of policy analysis supportIs federal
agencies has always been part of its mission. In recenthas spent
more and more of its resources on studies that areve to the
immediate and, often, political needs of these agencies.nt months,
PRA has moved aggressively to restructure its activi-as assumed a
higher profile in servicing the needs of OSTP, OMB,d other federal
agencies, doing some work in-house and obtainingitside assistance
from groups such as consulting firms throughrdering agreements"
rather than the traditional grant mechanism. ItIs a variety of
longer term grant programs. It is not yet clear howive these will
be, how much science and engineering they willor how closely they
will be tied to federal agency agendas.veral reasons a different
and more drastic reorientation of PRAe contemplated. NSF is not,
and has never been, a good place for aoolicy analysis job shop.
Despite possible political appeal, the long-,s of such work to the
foundation, particularly to its reputation as a)nate and objective
research organization, are considerable. NSFyve a far greater
impact, and in a manner more consistent with itsal role, if steps
were taken to substantially reduce its directnent in policy support
for federal agencies and its efforts wereated on building a
long-term substantive program designed tothe quality and
fundamental capabilities of science- and technolo-ed policy
analysis. The choice deserves careful reconsideration.{ANGER
MORGAN, Head, Department of Engineering and Public-arnegie-Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213
