Upload
handaorui
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
1/16
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513
Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soilsof northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change scenarios
ARTICLE · MARCH 2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013GB004746
CITATIONS
2
READS
86
12 AUTHORS, INCLUDING:
Yasuhito Shirato
National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sci…51 PUBLICATIONS 614 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Toshichika Iizumi
National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sci…61 PUBLICATIONS 353 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Jinzhou Wang
University of Maryland, College Park
4 PUBLICATIONS 2 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Daniel Vaughan Murphy
University of Western Australia
134 PUBLICATIONS 3,795 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate,
letting you access and read them immediately.
Available from: Xinhua He
Retrieved on: 18 December 2015
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinzhou_Wang?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinzhou_Wang?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_5http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yasuhito_Shirato?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yasuhito_Shirato?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshichika_Iizumi?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshichika_Iizumi?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_1http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Murphy2?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_7http://www.researchgate.net/institution/University_of_Western_Australia?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_6http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Murphy2?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_5http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Murphy2?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinzhou_Wang?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_7http://www.researchgate.net/institution/University_of_Maryland_College_Park?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_6http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinzhou_Wang?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_5http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinzhou_Wang?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshichika_Iizumi?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_7http://www.researchgate.net/institution/National_Institute_for_Agro-Environmental_Sciences_in_Japan?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_6http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshichika_Iizumi?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_5http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshichika_Iizumi?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yasuhito_Shirato?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_7http://www.researchgate.net/institution/National_Institute_for_Agro-Environmental_Sciences_in_Japan?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_6http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yasuhito_Shirato?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_5http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yasuhito_Shirato?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_4http://www.researchgate.net/?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_1http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_3http://www.researchgate.net/publication/260531513_Soil_organic_carbon_sequestration_in_upland_soils_of_northern_China_under_variable_fertilizer_management_and_climate_change_scenarios?enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ%3D%3D&el=1_x_2
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
2/16
Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils
of northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change scenarios
Guiying Jiang1, Minggang Xu1, Xinhua He1,2, Wenju Zhang1, Shaomin Huang3, Xueyun Yang4,
Hua Liu5, Chang Peng6, Yasuhito Shirato7, Toshichika Iizumi7, Jinzhou Wang1, and Daniel V. Murphy1,8
1Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Crop Nutrition and Fertilization, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regiona
Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China, 2School of Plant Biology, University of Western
Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia, 3Institute of Plant Nutrition and Resources Environment, Henan Academy o
Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China, 4College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University,
Yangling, China, 5Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi, China, 6Northeast
Agricultural Research Center of China, Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun, China, 7National Institute for
Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan, 8Soil Biology and Molecular Ecology Group, School of Earth and
Environment, Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia
Abstract We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term eldtrials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general
circulation models were validated using these eld trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict
future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1%
year1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in
double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicatedthat these soils will be a
net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the
additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of
northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all
sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be4.3 to 18.2t C ha1 by 2100. The
effectof projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change didnot differsignicantly between climate
scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2
was approximately 0.136 t C ha1 yr1 in northern China. These ndings highlight the need to maintain, andwhere possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming
inorganic fertilizer intensive.
1. Introduction
Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in agricultural soil is directly affected by anthropogenic activities
and climate change; both can alter net primary production (NPP) and organic matter decomposition
[Yan et al., 2010]. Carbon inputs to soil can be increased in arable farming systems where (i) crop
production has not yet achieved maximum water use ef ciency and/or where irrigation is available,
(ii) nutrient limitations are overcome with fertilizers, and (iii) where additional organic sources are applied;
potentially converting agricultural soil into a net carbon store. The capacity for further SOC sequestration
in agricultural soils is estimated at 140 to 170 Pg C [Lal , 2004], which is more than 10% of the existingglobal terrestrial SOC store. As such the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ IPCC, 2007a] has
identied SOC sequestration as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly option to mitigate increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
China has more than 20% of the world population and 8% of the total world arable land [Food and Agriculture
Organization, 2010]. Agriculture was responsible for 15 to 18% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in China
during 2007; with contributions from agricultural land being 43 to 47% from methane (CH4), 33 to 34% from
nitrous oxide (N2O) and 19 to 23% from CO2 [Guo and Zhou, 2007; Lin et al., 2012]. Crop production is the
major land use occupying an area of 122 million ha [National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2012] and accounts
for 7 to 12% of the SOC stock under arable production systems worldwide [Schlesinger , 1999]. Furthermore,
additions of organic waste to agricultural soil have occurred for thousands of years (e.g., Loessial soil) in China
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 319
PUBLICATIONS
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
RESEARCH ARTICLE10.1002/2013GB004746
Key Points:
• The RothC model is suitable for
SOC simulation in upland soil in
Northern China
• The climate change did not signi-
cantly affect annual rateof SOC change
• Inorganic fertilizer intensive farming
needorganic carbon inputs for SOCkept
Supporting Information:
• Readme
• Table S1
• Table S2
• Table S3
• Figure S1
• Figure S2
• Figure S3
Correspondence to:
M. Xu and D. V. Murphy,
Citation:
Jiang, G., et al. (2014), Soil organic
carbon sequestration in upland soils of
northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change
scenarios, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 28,
319–333, doi:10.1002/2013GB004746.
Received 25 SEP 2013Accepted 25 FEB 2014
Accepted article online 3 MAR 2014
Published online 26 MAR 2014
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8515631_Soil_Carbon_Sequestration_Impacts_on_Global_Climate_Change_and_Food_Security?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8515631_Soil_Carbon_Sequestration_Impacts_on_Global_Climate_Change_and_Food_Security?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8515631_Soil_Carbon_Sequestration_Impacts_on_Global_Climate_Change_and_Food_Security?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235238641_Carbon_Sequestration_in_Soils?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235238641_Carbon_Sequestration_in_Soils?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235238641_Carbon_Sequestration_in_Soils?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==http://publications.agu.org/journals/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1944-9224http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004746https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8515631_Soil_Carbon_Sequestration_Impacts_on_Global_Climate_Change_and_Food_Security?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235238641_Carbon_Sequestration_in_Soils?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223947357_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_and_mitigation_measures_in_Chinese_agroecosystems?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004746http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004746http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1944-9224http://publications.agu.org/journals/
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
3/16
aiding the stabilization of SOC [Liang et al., 2012; Zhao et al., 2008]. However, China is currently the largest
consumer of inorganic fertilizer in the world, accounting for 90% of the global increase in use [Liu and
Diamond, 2005]. Through increased inorganic fertilizer use, adoption of modern plant cultivars and increased
areas of irrigation, crop grain yields in China have approximately doubled between 1980 (wheat 1.9 t ha1,
maize 3.1 t ha1) and 2010 (wheat 4.7 t ha1, maize 5.4 t ha1) [National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2012].
However, during this 30 year period SOC stocks in agricultural systems employing common management
practices (i.e., tillage, inorganic fertilizers, straw removal, and no animal manure application) have only
changed slightly; with a general decrease in arid/semiarid regions and increase in humid/semihumid
regions [Sun et al., 2010; Yan et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2009]. Reported SOC changes in agricultural soils vary
(2.0 to 0.6% yr1) [Yan et al., 2010] with an average SOCsequestration rate of 21.9 Tg C yr1 between 1980
and 2000 [Sun et al., 2010]; equivalent to 0.21% of the estimated 10,070 Tg C stored in upland soils in China
[ Xie et al., 2007].
A change in crop growth will alter the carbon input to soil from plant residues, which is typically the main
source of new SOC in arable land (unless manure is applied). Net primary production (NPP) is affected by
climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2, and the length of crop growth period
[Ye et al., 2013]. It is reported that the yields of wheat and maize have responded negatively to warming at the
global scale, although the impact on other crops (e.g., rice) is less certain [Lobell and Field , 2008]. Wan et al.
[2011] modeled future changes in SOC stocks for upland soils in China based on historical plant carbon input
rates without consideration of manure or straw application. They predicted that SOC would decrease in most
upland soils, especially in northern China. No consideration was given in their future predictions to increases
in NPP based upon improved plant breeding and/or adoption of “best practice” agronomic management. It isexpected that the rate of straw retention in China could increase from 40% [Gao et al., 2002] to90%[Sun et al.
2010], and that no-tillage practices could be extended to 50% of the nations cropland by 2050; with organic
manure inputs likely to remain the same (110 Tg C yr1) [Li et al ., 2003]. Based on a historical crop NPP
increase of approximately 12 Tg C yr1 from 1960 to 1999 [Huang et al., 2007] and a future increase in NPP o
approximately 6 Tg C yr1, Sun et al. [2010] calculated a further 55% increase in NPP by 2050 for China
(equivalent to a 1% annual NPP increase from 2000 to 2050).
In our study, we measured the historical change in SOC stocks from long-term eld trials for the major soil
types and climatic conditions of northern China and then modeled future changes in SOC stocks using
different climate and carbon input scenarios. We wanted to quantify the difference in current SOC
sequestration rates when organic residues are added to soils compared to common management practice
Figure 1. Location of the eight long-term experimental sites in upland soils of northern China.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 320
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229917944_Direct_measurement_of_soil_organic_carbon_content_change_in_the_croplands_of_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223294862_Carbon_mineralization_and_properties_of_water-extractable_organic_carbon_in_soils_of_the_south_Loess_Plateau_in_China?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257638657_Long-term_combined_application_of_manure_and_NPK_fertilizers_influenced_nitrogen_retention_and_stabilization_of_organic_C_in_Loess_soil?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-0b8422f1-adaa-4f1a-9c4e-ea5dba3ca39f&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI2MDUzMTUxMztBUzoxOTkyMTU3NDY2ODY5NzZAMTQyNDUwODE0MzYxMQ==
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
4/16
We also wanted to determine how climate change would alter SOC stocks and if future SOC stocks could be
increased with inorganic fertilizer alone or if organic residue/manure inputs will be required. Our specicaims were to (i) measure the historical change in SOC stocks from eight long-term fertilizer trials (15–28 years
treatments of inorganic fertilizers and/or manure/straw application) that represent the major soil types and
climatic conditions of northern China, (ii) use the historical climate and soil data to validate global climate
models and the RothC carbon model for northern China, and (iii) model future changes in SOC stocks to 2100
under two plant carbon input scenarios (no change to NPP or an annual 1% NPP increase).
2. Methods and Materials
2.1. Field Research Sites
Our study consisted of eight long-term (i.e., 15–28 years) experimental sites on upland soils in the northern
regions of China (Figure 1). The climate at these sites ranged from arid to semihumid and from mild to
warm temperate. Annual mean temperature ranged from 4.5°C in the northeast to 14.5°C in the western
central region, annual precipitation ranged from 127 mm in the northwest to 832 mm in the central easternregion, and evaporation was 1 to 18 times greater than precipitation (Table 1). The annual cropping
rotation was either single or double crops and consisted of various crop sequences of predominately
wheat or maize (Table 1). The four single-cropping trial locations were signicantly cooler (4.5–8.0°C) and
drier (127–540 mm) compared to the four double-cropping sites (11.0–14.5°C and 575–832 mm) (P
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
5/16
soil, Zhangye site), Calcic Kastanozem (Dark Lossial soil, Pingliang site), Haplic Luvisol (Brown Fluvo-aquic
soil, Changping site), Calcaric Cambisol (Fluvo-aquic soil, Zhengzhou and Xuzhou sites), and Cumulic
Anthrosol (Lossial soil, Yangling site).
Long-term eld plots (n = 8for eld trial location, n = 1–3 for within trial plot replicates) varied in size: 33 m2 at
Zhangye and Xuzhou; approximately 200 m2
at Changping, Yangling, and Pingliang and approximately400m2 at Urumqi, Gongzhuling, and Zhengzhou. Inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K)
fertilizers were applied as urea, calcium superphosphate, and potassium chloride, respectively. There were
three fertilizer treatments common to each eld trial: no fertilizer (Control), inorganic fertilizer only (NP or
NPK), and inorganic fertilizer plus manure (M) addition (NP + M or NPK + M). In addition, one additional
fertilizer treatment was sampled depending on the site: manure only (M) at Zhangye and Xuzhou, and
inorganic fertilizer plus straw (S) return (NP+ S or NPK + S) at the other six sites. The total N applied
(inorganic+ organic) was equal for the NPK and NPK + M treatments at ve sites but was higher in the
NPK+ M treatment at Zhangye, Pingliang, and Xuzhou due to an additional manure N application (Table S1 in
the supporting information). For the NP + M and NPK + M treatments 30% of the total N was from the
inorganic fertilizer, while the remainder was organic manure N.
Organic carbon input into soil included plant residues (plant roots + stubble) plus any treatment addition o
organic manure or crop straw return. The average annual carbon inputs from manure, straw, and plantresidues at each site are reported in Table S2. All aboveground biomass (not including stubble) was removed
from the plots at harvest; the straw was returned to plots in the NP + S and NPK + S treatments. The average
C/N ratio of straw was 67/1 for wheat and 50/1 for maize. The carbon input from roots was estimated by the
ratio of belowground biomass to aboveground biomass. Total plant biomass carbon was proportioned to
roots as 30% for wheat and 26% for maize [ Li et al., 1994], and we assumed that 75.3% and 85.1% of the tota
root biomass were in the surface 20 cm of soil for wheat [Fang et al., 2011; Lu and Xiong, 1991; Ma, 1987; Miao
et al., 1989], and maize [Li et al., 1992; Liu and Song, 2007], respectively. The contribution of carbon input from
stubble was estimated using the ratio of stubble biomass to straw biomass. For wheat we used the average
for fertilized plots of 13.1% and for control plots 18.3%, while for maize we used 3.0% for all plots [ Xu et al.
2006]. To convert plant dry matter into the equivalent amount of carbon, we used the national average
carbon concentrations for wheat (399g C kg1) and maize (444 g C kg1) residues on an oven-dried basis
[NCATS , 1994].
The source of manure changed with local availability (pig, goat, horse, or cattle) and varied with a C/N ratio
between 11/1 and 26/1 (Table S2). Annual carbon inputs from manure ranged from 0.43 to 8.69 t C ha1 yr1
depending on the site and application year [Fan et al., 2008; NCATS , 1994; Xu et al., 2006]
Soil tillage was by a mouldboard plow. For single-cropping or double-cropping eld sites tillage occurred
before seeding once or twice a year, respectively. The tillage depth was 25 cm at Gongzhuling, Urumqi, and
Zhengzhou where prior measurements determined that 80% of the straw/manure inputs would remain
within the surface 20 cm of soil, while tillage was to 20 cm at other eld sites where 100% of the straw/
manure inputs remained within this soil depth [ Xu et al., 2006].
2.2. Soil Analysis
Composite soil samples (0–20 cm depth) were randomly collected from each plot at each eld site (n = 5–10
cores per composite sample; 5 cm in diameter) after harvest but before tillage (i.e., September–
October). Soisamples were air dried before being sieved (
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
6/16
2.3. Carbon Model
The climatic data used in the RothC model (RothC-26.3) [ Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999] consisted of monthly
mean air temperature (°C), precipitation (mm), and open pan evaporation (OPE; mm). Temperature and
precipitation data for eachsite were collected fromthe nearest meteorological station of the China Meteorologica
Administration. Because the OPE data were unavailable, we calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET)according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith method [ Allen et al., 1998] and
converted the PET to OPE by OPE = PET/0.75 [ Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999]. Since the land was irrigated at
Urumqi, Zhangye, Yangling, Changping, Zhengzhou, and Xuzhou, we added summed irrigation water
with precipitation.
Soil input data for modeling were based upon the clay content (%) and the initial SOC content (t C ha1) fo
each trial site. To determine the inert organic matter (IOM) pool for the RothC model we used the equation
IOM = 0.049 × SOC1.139 [Falloon et al ., 1998]. Management data on monthly soil cover (bare or vegetated)
were obtained from Xu et al. [2006]. In the RothC model the added straw was treated as crop residue and
animal manure as farm yard manure.
In modeling each set of eld trial data, we set the initial SOC value in the RothC model to the measured SOC
content from the initial value of each eld trial treatment plot (Table 2) and then simulated the change in SOC
during the trial period for each set of fertilizer treatments. To run the model, it is necessary to specify theinitial amount of SOC in each of ve dened organic matter pools: Decomposable Plant Material (DPM),
Resistant Plant Material (RPM), Microbial Biomass (BIO), Humied Organic Matter (HUM), and Inert Organic
Matter (IOM). The allocation of SOC among the different pools was unknown for these eld sites. However, as
described by Jenkinson and Coleman [1999] if we assume that the SOC content has reached equilibrium, then
RothC can be run inversely to calculate the amount of carbon that is needed to enter the soil annually to
maintain a specic level of SOC; the allocation of SOC into each of the four organic matter pools is dened at
the same time. This is a standard means by which to parameterize this model to equilibrium; at which point
the relative size of the carbon pools can be dened [see Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999; RRes, 2007]. For plant
residue C inputs we used a DPM: RPM ratio of 1.44 as this is a typical value for most agricultural crops and
grasses [ Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999]. The average weather data (monthly mean air temperature (°C),
precipitation (mm), and open pan evaporation (OPE; mm)) for each trial site from the start year to the end of
the simulation was used in this equilibrium model run.
Once the starting SOCcontent andits initial allocation among the organic matter pools hadbeen established
the model was run using carbon inputs according to the different carbon inputs scenarios: (A) from the initia
year to 2010, the carbon inputs were the measured data for each year (Figure 2); (B) after 2010, there are two
scenarios (i) for the current NPP carbon inputs scenario, the carbon inputs were the average values for each
site during the experimental period which are listed in Table S2; (ii) for the 1% annual increase in NPP carbon
inputs scenario, the carbon inputs are based on the values and justication provided in Sun et al. [2010] for a
1% annual increase by the current NPP carbon inputs (see carbon inputs scenarios in detail in paragraph 18)
2.4. General Circulation Models
Two general circulation models (GCMs) were selected: BCCR, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
University of Bergen, Norway, http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-BCCR-BCM2.html and IPSL, the Institute
Pierre Simon Laplace, France, http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-IPSL-CM4.html. These two global change
models represent a range of model characteristics and thus their climates scenarios. The future climate usingBCCR is cold and dry, while the IPSL is warm and wet when compared to historical observations (Table S3).
Both GCMs have been validated for use in China [Li et al., 2011], and we also found good agreement between
models and historical climatic data (1971–2000) when assessed for the trial sites used in this study (e.g.,
observed versus estimated total net radiation at Urumqi; Figure S3). Here we used extremes in CO 2concentration scenarios of 550 ppm (B1) and 850 ppm (A2) [IPCC, 2007b].
2.5. Climate Change Scenarios and Plant Residue Carbon Input Scenarios
We set ve climate scenarios until the year 2100 for the RothC modeling: no climate change, BCCR GCM
under two CO2 emission scenarios (B1, A2) and the IPSL GCM under two CO 2 emission scenarios (B1, A2).
Since the RothC model does not include the crop submodel routine, we set two carbon input scenarios:
(i) current NPP (the average of the eld trial experimental period) and (ii) 1% annual increase in NPP based on
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 323
http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-IPSL-CM4.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-IPSL-CM4.html
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
7/16
the agricultural productivity improvements proposed by Sun et al. [2010]—we extrapolated this NPP scenario
to the year 2100 on the basis that similar further gains in NPP would be made as agricultural practices and
crop breeding continue to make improvements to plant productivity.
2.6. Evaluation of Model Performance and Statistical Analysis
We determined the coef cient of determination (R2) to represent the degree of association between the
modeled and measured data and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) to represent the magnitude of
differences between the modeled and observed values [Smith et al., 1997]. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and
the least signicant difference methods (P < 0.05) were applied to compare treatment and climate effects on
crop yield, organic carbon input, and SOC dynamics. The t test was employed to assess differences in basic
site information, soil properties, crop yield, organic carbon input, and SOC dynamics between single-and
double-cropping sites.
Figure 2. The trend of annual plant carbon (C) input to soil at each upland eld site in northern China. Control = no fertilizer
NPK = inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K); M = manure applied; S = straw returned.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 324
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
8/16
3. Results
3.1. Grain Yield and Carbon
Inputs Estimation
Average annual grain yield from the
eight long-term eld trials was4.0tha1 for wheat and 6.3 t ha1 for
maize. Grain yield in the control plots
was lowest (1.4 t ha1 yr1 for wheat
and 3.3t ha1 yr1 for maize) with a
decreasing trend during the 15 to
28 years of eld trials. Under the plots
with fertilization (i.e., NPK, NPK + M, and
NPK + S), the grain yield increased
during the experimental period in 5/8
of the eld trial sites with the
exceptions being at Pingliang,
Changping, and Xuzhou (Figure S1).
Generally, the grain yield under
NP + M/NPK + M plots was highest, but
there was no signicant difference between NP/NPK, NP + M/NPK + M, and NP + S/NPK + S plots. The additiona
manure or straw return had no signicant effect on grain yield compared to inorganic only fertilizer
application (Figure S1). The annual crop yield at double-cropping sites was almost two times that at single
cropping sites (Table S2). Total annual grain yield and total carbon inputs in plots receiving fertilizer (i.e., NPK
NPK+ M, and NPK+ S) were signicantly higher than those in the control treatment without fertilization for
both single-cropping and double-cropping sites; there was no signicant difference between fertilizer
treatments (P
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
9/16
3.2. SOC Change in Northern China
The initial SOC content was higher for single-cropping sites (24 t C ha1) compared to double-cropping sites
(20 t C ha1; Table 2). After 15 to 28 years, in single-cropping sites, the SOC content in plots with inorganic
fertilizer was signicantly higher than in the control plot without fertilization. The annual carbon inputs was
higher in double-cropping sites (1.6 to 5.7 t C ha1 yr1) than single-cropping sites (0.9 to 3.9 t C ha1 yr1
Figure 4. Comparison between observed soil organic carbon (SOC) content (0–20 cm) and RothC modeled values for upland soils in northern China.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 326
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
10/16
Table S2), but this was not reected in the annual SOC change, which was greater in single-cropping
compared to double-cropping sites when considered for the same amount of carbon inputs (Figure 3).
The SOC sequestration potential was negative in the control plots, which were a net source of CO2 (Table 3)
However, even when NPK was applied the future SOC sequestration potential (until the year 2100) was
only 4.5 and 5.7 t C ha1 in double-cropping and single-cropping sites, respectively (Table 3). There was
signicantly higher SOC sequestration potential where inorganic fertilizer was combined with manure
(i.e., 20.2 t C ha1 in single-cropping sites and 16.1t C ha1 in double-cropping sites) or straw (i.e., 16.8 t C ha1
in single-cropping sites and 13.5t C ha1 in double-cropping sites) compared to NPK only plots. Averaged
across all eight sites, the SOC sequestration potential ranged from
4.3t C ha1
in the control plots to18.2 t C ha1 in NPK+ M plots.
3.3. Validation of RothC Model
The RothC model was able to adequately simulate SOC dynamics in all treatment plots (Figure 4) as modeled
SOC values tted well with the observed values (Figure 5). Both the modeled and observed SOC content
showeda declining trend in control plots at most sites. Modeled SOCvalues were at steady state, or increased
slightly, in plots that received inorganic fertilizer only (NP/NPK) but increased in plots with organic manure
(M, NP/NPK + M, NP/NPK+ S). The coef cient of determination (R2) between observed and modeled SOC
contents ranged from 59% to 94% (P
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
11/16
3.4. Comparison of the Climate Condition Prediction by GCMs Until 2100
The two GCMs predicted two different climate conditions by the end of 21st century. Compared with the rs
20 years of the experiment, the average annual mean temperature (AMT) during the years 2080 to 2100 was
predicted to increase at all sites (Table S3). Annual mean temperature increments predicted by the IPSLmodel were signicantly higher than those predicted by the BCCR model (P
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
12/16
inputs) annual SOC change among the ve climate conditions. Total annual SOC change was in the order:
NPKM>NPKS, NPK >Control (P
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
13/16
under increased NPP scenario). At the Urumqi site the SOC conversion was 3.6% under the current NPP
scenario and 8.7% under an increased NPP scenario. For the average of these sites, the SOC conversion rate
was lower during 2050 to 2100 (where the SOC conversion was 1.3% under current NPP scenario and 3.1%
under increased NPP scenario) than during 2010 to 2050 when the SOC conversion was 5.4% under current
NPP scenario and 7.0% under the increased NPP scenario. This indicated that the SOC storage potential of
these soils was close to being reached in the later time period at all sites.
Under the IPSL-A2 climate scenario, representing the highest temperature scenario, even with an increased
NPP carbon input scenario, the SOC content decreased in the control plots at all sites except Changping
(Figure S2). Under this climate scenario for the NPK and NPK + S plots, the SOC increased at all sites except
Urumqi, where the SOC decreased gradually. However, for the NPK + M plot the SOC increased at all sites
under this climate scenario.
4. Discussion
The social and economic stability of China largely depends on agricultural development. Cropland in
northern China accounts for 65.8% of the 122 million hectares of total cropland in China [ National Bureau o
Statistics of China, 2012]. While inorganic fertilizers have played an important role in feeding the rapidly
growing world population, the application of organic amendments to agricultural elds has declined [ Ju
et al., 2005]. The decomposition rate of SOC was shown to be faster when inorganic fertilizer was applied
alone compared to with manure in Loessial soil in northwest China [Liang et al., 2012]. A future consequence
of inorganic fertilizer use without organic amendments in China will be declining SOC stores and increasing
CO2 release under current tillage practices. If China continues to maintain self-suf ciency in food production
[Solot , 2006], then arable lands will need to increase productivity without causing loss of soil fertility.
The RothC model was able to accurately predict the SOC dynamics in agricultural upland soil in northern
China. Yang et al. [2003] and Guo et al. [2007] applied the RothC model to upland soils (Black and Fluvo-aquic
soils) in northern China, and both reported that the SOC predicted agreed well with the experimental data
observed in unfertilized plots, in plots with inorganic fertilizers andwhere inorganic fertilizers were applied in
combination with manure. Our results were consistent with Yang et al. [2003] and Guo et al. [2007], and we
also found that the RothC model was suitable for use in predicting SOC stocks with straw application
(Figures 4 and 5).
Addition of animal manures and return of crop straw are well recognized as positive management options to
improve SOC as illustrated in this study. Farmers have used organic food waste and animal manures to
maintain crop production and soil fertility for thousands of years in China [Yang, 2006]. However, with
inorganic fertilizers currently being widely available, the application on manure to arable land has declined
from 99.9% in 1949 to 25% in 2003 [Huang et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010]. Under the current NPP carbon inpu
scenario, the annual SOC change for the NPK + M treatment was 0.287t C ha1 yr1 with no climate change
0.252 t C ha1 yr1 assuming BCCR-A2 and 0.219 t C ha1 yr1 assuming IPSL-A2 climate conditions until
2100 in northern China. This would mean an additional 17.5 to 23.0 Tg C yr1 sequestered to the end of this
century if agricultural management practices were to apply NPK + M (without improvement in straw
retention or conservation tillage practices). Assuming the increased NPP carbon input scenario, the SOC
sequestered by 2100 would be 26.7 to 28.5 Tg C yr1 under BCCR-A2 and IPSL-A2 climate condition,
respectively. However, organic manure is now more commonly applied to vegetable crops than to graincrops—data from 200 agrometeorological stations conrmed this practice [Wan et al., 2011] which is unlikely
to change. It should also be recognized that a larger land area is required to “grow” manure than the input o
soil carbon [Schlesinger , 1999]. Increasing SOC stocks through manure application at one site may result in
depletion of SOC at other. Thus, manure is not likely to yield an environmentally sustainable net sink for
carbon across these large areas of arable land.
Throughout northern China, crop straw was historically used as fuel, animal feed and bedding, or burnt
directly within the eld. Since the 1980s, straw return was popularized by government policy as a practice to
improve soil fertility and decrease air pollution by not burning. The area of agricultural land where straw was
returned varied from 7% to 71% depending on the province; with an average 36.6% of all straw in China used
to improve soil fertility [Gao et al., 2002; Lu et al., 2009]. Under the current NPP carbon input scenario, the
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 330
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
14/16
annual SOC change in northern China until the year 2100 within the NPK + S treatment was 0.162 t C ha1 yr1
assuming no climate change (12.6 Tg C yr1), 0.096 t C ha1 yr1 assuming BCCR-A2 (7.7 Tg C yr1), and
0.064 t C ha1 yr1 assuming IPSL-A2 climate conditions (5.1 Tg C yr1). Compared to NPK only, the return
of straw could sequester an additional 7.2, 3.6, and 2.2 Tg C yr1 SOC under these three climate conditions
(i.e., no climate change, BCCR-A2, and IPSL-A2, respectively) in northern China by 2100.In agricultural systems, tillage can be a major cause of SOC change; losses up to 50% of the starting SOC in
surface soils (20 cm) have been observed after cultivation for 30 to 50 years when natural vegetation is
converted to cultivated crops [Post and Kwon, 2000]. Based on the global database of 67 long-term
agricultural experiments, West and Post [2002] found on average that a change from conventional tillage to
no-tillage can sequester 0.57 ± 0.14 t C ha1 yr1. In China, Lu et al. [2009] determined that under the current
climate situation that no-tillage can sequester 0.800 Tg C yr1 (0.039 t C ha1 yr1). In our study, all the long
term experimental sites were plowed after harvest; as such we could not measure the effect of no-tillage on
carbon turnover. However, it is reported that the carbon conversion rate is 8% per year in plowed systems
and 10% per year in no-tillage systems [Duiker and Lal , 1999]. We attribute the lower SOC levels in the double
cropping sites in our study to the additional tillage each year associated with the planting of the second crop
along with the higher soil temperatures at these sites—both tillage and temperature are likely to have increased
organic matter decomposition rates [ Zhang et al ., 2010]. Assuming that organic manure inputs remain the same
[Li et al ., 2003] but that straw retention in China does increase [Gao et al., 2002; Sun et al., 2010], and that
no-tillage practices can be extended Sun et al. [2010] calculated a further 1% annual NPP increase from
2000 to 2050. Based on these improved agricultural management practices, this rate of increase in NPP
would result in an annual SOC changes of 0.002 under the control plot to 0.284 t C ha1 yr1 under the
NPK + M plot (a SOC conversion rate of 7.0%) until 2050 and a further 0.024 t C ha1 yr1 under the contro
to 0.209 t C ha1 yr1 under the NPK + M treatment (a SOC conversion rate of 3.1%) until 2100, assuming
the IPSL-A2 climate condition scenario. This is equivalent to an additional 0.33 Tg C yr1 until 2050 and
0.98 Tg C yr1 until 2100 of SOC sequestered compared to a no change in NPP scenario.
5. Conclusion
The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential demonstrated that under no fertilizer input, these soils
would be a net source of CO2 in most parts of northern China. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the
additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in the northwest
sites. Manure or straw application could improve the carbon sequestration at all sites, with straw being a more
likely option into the future. The future SOC sequestration potential in northern China was 4.3 to 18.2t C ha1
by 2100 under current carbon input and existing climate conditions. The effect of climate change on the annua
rate of SOC change did notdiffersignicantly between theve climate scenarios; under the higher CO2 emission
scenario (i.e., A2) 8.1t C ha1 (0.062t C ha1yr1) and 10.7 t C ha1 (0.087t C ha1yr1) will be sequestered
under IPSL-A2 andBCCR-A2, respectively, with the current NPP C input scenario. Under the increased NPP C inpu
scenario, 20.5t C ha1 (0.182t C ha1yr1) and 23.8 t C ha1 (0.211t C ha1yr1) would be sequestered in
northern China. This doubling in the potential of future SOC sequestration under an increased NPP scenario
highlights the need to introduce both straw retention and no-tillage practices across the areas of northern China
where this is not commonly practiced.
ReferencesAllen, R. G., L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith (1998), Crop evapotranspiration—Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO
irrigation and drainage paper 56, Rome, Italy.
Black, C. A. (1965), Methods of Soil Analysis, part 2, ASA, Madison, Wisc.
Duiker, S. W., and R. Lal (1999), Crop residue and tillage effects on carbon sequestration in a Luvisol in a central Ohio, Soil Till. Res., 52, 73–81
Falloon, P., P. Smith, K. Coleman, and S. Marshall (1998), Estimating the size of the inert organic matter pool from total soil organic carbon
content for use in the Rothamsted carbon model, Soil Biol. Biochem., 30, 1207–1211.
Fan, T., M. Xu, S. Song, G. Zhou, and L. Ding (2008), Trends in grain yields and soil organic C in a long-term fertilization experiment in the
China Loess Plateau, J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci., 171, 448–457.
Fang, Y., L. Liu, B. C. Xu, and F. M. Li (2011), The relationship between competitive ability and yield stability in an old and a modern winte
wheat cultivar, Plant Soil , 347 , 7–23.
Food and Agriculture Organization (2010), FAO Statistical Yearbook 2010. [Available at http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/syb/en/ .]
Gao, X. Z., W. Q. Ma, C. B. Ma, F. S. Zhang, and Y. H. Wang (2002), Analysis on the current status of utilization of crop straw in China [in Chinese
with English abstract], J. Huazhong Agri. Univ., 21, 242–247.
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge our colleagues fortheir unremitting efforts to the long-
term experiments, and we are also very
grateful to Wendy Wang, University of
Maryland, USA, and Daniel Richter, Duke
University, USA, for their constructive
comments and suggestions. This
research was nancially supported by
the National Science Foundation of
China (41171239), the National Basic
Research Program (2011CB100501), the
Australian Research Council Future
Fellowship Scheme (FT110100246), and
a Chinese High-End Foreign Experts
Visiting Professorship.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 331
http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/syb/en/http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/syb/en/
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
15/16
Guo, J. P., and C. D. Zhou (2007), Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation measures in Chinese agroecosystems, Agri. For. Meteorol., 142
270–277.
Guo, L., P. Falloon, K. Coleman, B. Zhou, Y. Li, E. Lin, and F. Zhang (2007), Application of the RothC model to the results of long-term
experiments on typical upland soils in northern China, Soil Use Manage., 23, 63–70.
Huang, H., S. Li, X. Li, J. Yao, W. Cao, M. Wang, and R. Liu (2006), Analysis on the status of organic fertilizer and its development strategies in
China [in Chinese with English abstract], Soil Fert., 1, 3–8.
Huang, Y., W. Zhang, W. J. Sun, and X. H. Zheng (2007), Net primary production of Chinese croplands from 1950 to 1999, Ecol. Appl., 17 (3)692–701, doi:10.1890/05-1792.
IPCC (2007a), Agriculture, in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report o
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by B. Metz et al., chap. 8, pp. 498–540, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
and New York.
IPCC (2007b), Climate models and their evaluation, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., chap. 8, pp. 590–662, Cambridge
Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York.
Jenkinson, D. S., and K.Coleman (1999), A modelfor the turnover of carbonin soil—Model description and windows user guide, Rothamsted
Research, Harpenden, U. K.
Ju, X. T., F. S. Zhang,X. M. Bao, V. Romheld, and M. Roelcke (2005), Utilization and management of organic wastes in Chinese agriculture: Past
present and perspectives, Sci. China Ser. C Life Sci. , 48, 965–979.
Kundsen, D., G. A. Peterson, P. F. Pratt, and A. L. Page (1982), Lithium, sodium, and potassium, in Methods of Soil Analysis, part 2, 2nd ed., ASA
and SSSA, Madison, Wisc.
Lal, R. (2004), Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security, Science, 304, 1623–1627.
Li,C. S.,Y. H.Zhuang, S. Frolking,J. Galloway,R. Harriss,B. MooreIII, D.Schimel, andX. K. Wang (2003), Modelingsoil organic carbonchange in
croplands of China, Ecol. Appl., 13(2), 327–336, doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0327:MSOCCI]2.0.CO;2.
Li, C., S. Frolking, and R. Harriss (1994), Modeling carbon biogeochemistry in agricultural soils, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8, 237–
254.Li,F. P.,Z. X. Xu,X. C. Liu, X. P.Li, andZ. F. Liu(2011),Assessmenton performance ofdifferent general circulationmodelin SonghuajiangRive
Basin [in Chinese with English abstract], J.China Hydrol., 31, 24–31.
Li, S. K., H. Y. Tu, W. F. Zhang, and G. Yang (1992), The distribution of maize root in soil and its relation to aboveground [in Chinese with
English abstract], Xinjiang Agri. Sci., 2, 99–103.
Liang, B., X. Yang, X. He, D. V. Murphy, and J. Zhou(2012), Long-termcombined applicationof manureand NPK fertilizers inuenced nitrogen
retention and stabilization of organic C in Loess soil, Plant Soil , 353, 249–260.
Lin, E. D., F. Sun, and W. Wang (2012), Greenhouse gases mitigation and carbon market in agriculture in China [in Chinese], Nanjing, China
Liu, J. G., and J. Diamond (2005), China’s environment in a globalizing world, Nature, 435, 1179–1186.
Liu, S. Q., and F. B. Song (2007), Comparative study on the characteristics of root system among maize genotypes with different tolerance to
drought [in Chinese with English abstract], J. Yangzhou Univ. (Agri. Life Sci. Edit.) , 28, 68–74.
Lobell, D. B., and C. B. Field (2008), Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO 2 and crop
yields since 1961, Global Change Biol., 14, 39–45.
Lu, F., X. Wang, B. Han, Z. Ouyang, X. Duan, H. Zheng, and H. Miao (2009), Soil carbon sequestrations by nitrogen fertilizer application, straw
return and no-tillage in China’s cropland, Global Change Biol., 15, 281–305.
Lu, R. K. (2000), Analytical Methods of Soil Agricultural Chemistry [in Chinese], China Agricultural Science and T echnology Press, Beijing, China
Lu, Z. M., and Q. X. Xiong (1991), Field experiment on vertical distribution of winter wheat roots [in Chinese with English abstract], J. Appl
Ecol., 2, 127–133.Ma, Y. X. (1987), A study on growing dynamic of wheat root system in various soils [in Chinese with English abstract], Acta Agronomica Sinica
13, 37–44.
Miao, G. Y., Y. T. Zhang, J. Yin, Y. S. Hou, and X. L. Pan (1989), A study on the development of root system in winter wheat under unirrigated
conditions in semi-arid Loess Plateau [in Chinese with English abstract], Acta Agronomica Sinica, 15, 104–115.
Murphy, J., and J. P. Riley (1962), A modied of single solution method for the determination of phosphatein nature water, Analytical Chimica
Acta, 27 , 31–36.
National Bureau of Statistics of China (2012), China Statistical Year Book [in Chinese], China Statistics Press, Beijing, China.
NCATS (1994), Chinese Organic Fertilizer Handbook [in Chinese], National Center for Agricultural Technology Service, Beijing, China.
Olsen, S. R., C. V. Cole, F. S. Watanabe, and A. Dean (1954), Estimation of available phosphorus in soils by extraction with sodium bicarbonate,
(USDA Circ. 939), Government Printing Of ce, Washington, D. C.
Post, W. M., and K. C. Kwon (2000), Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: Processes and potential, Global Change Biol., 6, 317–328
RRes (2007), Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC). Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, U. K. [Available at www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/
carbon/rothc.htm.]
Schlesinger, W. H. (1999), Carbon and agriculture—Carbon sequestration in soils, Science, 284, 2095–2095.
Shen, H. (1982), The method of soil nutrition map design [in Chinese with English abstract], Soil Fert., 5, 21–22.
Smith, P., et al. (1997), A comparison of the performance of nine soil organic matter models using datasets from seven long-term experi-
ments, Geoderma, 81, 153–225.Solot, I. B. (2006), The Chinese agricultural policy trilemma, Perspectives, 7 , 36–46.
Sun, W., Y. Huang, W. Zhang, and Y. Yu (2010), Carbon sequestration and its potential in agricultural soils of China, Global Biogeochem. Cycles
24, GB3001, doi:10.1029/2009GB003484.
Walkley, A., and I. A. Black (1934), An examination of the Degtjareff method for determining soil organic matter and a proposed modication
of the chromic acid titration method, Soil Sci., 37 , 29–38.
Wan, Y., E. Lin, W. Xiong, Y. E. Li, and L. Guo (2011), Modeling the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon stock in upland soils in the
21st century in China, Agri. Ecosyst. Environ., 141, 23–31.
West, T. O., and W. M. Post (2002), Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation a global data analysis, Soil Sci. Soc. Am
J., 66, 1930–1946.
Xie, Z. B., J. Zhu, G. Liu, C. Georg, H. Toshihiro, C. M. Chen, H. F. Sun, H. Y. Tang, and Q. Zeng (2007), Soil organic carbon stocks in China and
changes from 1980s to 2000s, Global Change Biol., 13, 1989–2007.
Xu, M. G., G. Q. Liang, and F. D. Zhang (2006), Soil Fertility Evolution in China, China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijng, China.
Yan, X., Z. Cai, S. Wang, and P. Smith (2010), Direct measurement of soil organic carbon content change in the croplands of China, Global
Change Biol., 17 , 1487–1496.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
JIANG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 332
http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/05‐1792http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0327:MSOCCI]2.0.CO;2http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/carbon/rothc.htmhttp://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/carbon/rothc.htmhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003484http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003484http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/carbon/rothc.htmhttp://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/carbon/rothc.htmhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0327:MSOCCI]2.0.CO;2http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/05‐1792
8/18/2019 5 Jiang Gy Gbc Caas Uwa 15pages
16/16
Yang, F., R. Li, Y. Cui, and H. Duan (2010), Utilization and develop strategy of organic fertilizer resources in China [in Chinese with English
abstract], Soil Fert. China, 4, 77–82.
Yang, H. S. (2006), Resource management, soil fertility and sustainable crop production: Experiences of China, Agri. Ecosyst. Environ., 116,
27–33.
Yang, X. M., X. P. Zhang, and H. J. Fang (2003), Long-term effects of fertilization on soil organic carbon changes in continuous corn of
northeast China RothC model simulations, Environ. Manage., 32, 459–465.
Ye, L. M., et al. (2013), Climate change impact on China food security in 2050, Agron. Sustain. Dev., 33, 363–
374.Yu, Y., Z. Guo, H. Wu, J. A. Kahmann, and F. Oldeld (2009), Spatial changes in soil organic carbon density and storage of cultivated soils in
China from 1980 to 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, GB2021, doi:10.1029/2008GB003428.
Zhang, W. J., X. J. Wang, M. G. Xu, S. M. Huang, H. Liu, and C. Peng (2010), Soil organic carbon dynamics under long-term fertilizations in
arable land of north China, Biogeosciences, 7 , 409–425.
Zhao, M., J. Zhou, and K. Kalbitz (2008), Carbon mineralization and properties of water-extractable organic carbon in soils of the south Loess
Plateau in China, Euro. J. Soil Biol., 44, 158–165.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1002/2013GB004746
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003428http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003428