总第 057期 2011年 9月

如需更多精彩内容或订阅 , 请登陆 :uni.xinhuaonline.com联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路 8 号尚都国际 502 室（ 100020 ） 联系电话： 010-58700900

道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选China’s growth and prices puzzle

China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise concern.

China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading, to be reported this Friday.

The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices has rarely seemed so complex.

中国“滞胀”了？

严格说来，中国的情况并不符合“滞胀”的经典定义：通胀高企，经济增长不振，两者长期结合存在。但是，价格在 7 月份仍有上涨，而经济增长即便说仍算得上坚挺，其势头似乎也在减弱。汇丰 (HSBC)/Markit周一发表的报告显示， 8 月份中国服务业采购经理指数 (PMI) 降至 50.6这一调查历史最低值。这个水平说明业务活动充其量仅出现微弱扩张。在中国物流与采购联合会编制的 13 个官方 PMI 数据系列中，有 6 个已降至 50 以下，说明业务活动出现收缩。即便当今世界对欧洲的危机念念不忘，这也应当引发忧虑。

中国的政策制定者们进退两难。值得注意的是， 8 月是今年首个中国官方既没有上调银行存款准备金率又没有上调利率的月份。随着美欧再一次竭力保持经济增长，中共中央政治局内部某些派别希望像西方一样，在较长时间内暂停收紧货币政策，或者甚至稍微放松一下政策。但是，在中国具有政治敏感性的整体消费价格指数 (CPI) 不容许这么做。 7 月的 CPI 几乎没有变化，仍保持在 6.5% 的三年高位。中国媒体报道暗示，定于本周五报告的 8 月 CPI 将不会有太大变化。

好消息是，就算没有其它手段管用的话，基数效应也将在未来几个月帮助遏制 CPI 。人民币汇率上升也有利于缓解进口价格上涨的影响： 8 月份，人民币兑美元汇率出现 10% 的年化上涨，这是自去年 9 月以来的最大涨幅。但就目前而言，紧张形势仍一目了然。中国总理温家宝上周在中共政策刊物《求是》撰文重申，稳定物价总水平仍然是宏观调控的“首要任务”。温家宝同时称，经济增速放缓的各种迹象“处在合理水平”。这话也许没错。但是，在创造就业与稳定价格之间寻找平衡的任务，看上去很少像现在这样复杂。

DOWJONES EDUCATION

总第 057期 2011年 9月

如需更多精彩内容或订阅 , 请登陆 :uni.xinhuaonline.com联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路 8 号尚都国际 502 室（ 100020 ） 联系电话： 010-58700900

DOWJONES EDUCATION道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选

The careerist: Summer school MBAs at work

I grew up in Beijing and left when I was 16 to go to high school in the US. After that, I went to Harvard and studied applied maths and economics and became very interested in international development. At first it was an academic interest and I was going to do a PhD, but I decided academia wasn’t for me. So I went to work for McKinsey for three years and did a lot of work in developing countries, with governments, NGOs and companies that were thinking of getting into new markets. There was a lot of focus on health, which was an area that really interested me.

McKinsey was a really good chance to experience a lot in a short period of time but it was never where I was going to pursue a career, so I went back to school. I’m now doing a three-year degree which is an MBA at Stanford and an MPA/ID (public administration and international development) at Harvard Kennedy school of government.

In the summers I’ve been building up my experience on the ground by doing small consulting projects. Last summer, I was in Bangladesh working for a for-profit social enterprise. We partnered with Brac, a non-profit organisation, and a created a mobile technology for health workers who were looking after pregnant women in rural areas. From this I learnt that I wanted to create customised solutions for social enterprises.I also decided to spend a month in China because I wanted to answer the question, “If I came back to China what would it be like to do social impact work?” It makes sense for me as it’s easier to make the most difference where the cultural difference is the least. So I’m meeting leading impact investors in China – people and organisations that are doing groundbreaking work. It’s very inspiring and I’m getting a lot of energy from them. From a distance you’d think the social sector in China is very undeveloped and very bureaucratic – but, partly because it is so small, there are a lot of opportunities. For me, the past four weeks have corrected some of my preconceived notions.

I’m based in Beijing and I’m very interested in the migrant communities in China. They really have been the engines of growth, but there’s no social safety net, especially in health and that’s what I’m focusing on right now. I’m also researching a couple of ideas for non-profits and social ventures using the models I’ve seen in Bangladesh and India. When I graduate I want to work in this field. It could be anywhere, but there are a lot of opportunities in China.

一个 MBA学生的事业心

我在北京长大， 16岁离乡前往美国读高中。之后，我考上了哈佛大学(Harvard) ，攻读应用数学与经济学专业，并变得对国际发展产生了浓厚的兴趣。起初这只是一种学术兴趣，我打算念到博士，但我后来打定了主意，认为自己不适合做学术，于是我进了麦肯锡(McKinsey) ，在那里工作了 3 年。期间我在发展中国家做了许多工作，与政府机构、非盈利组织和希望打入新市场的企业合作。这些工作中的一大侧重点是医疗卫生，而这是一个真正让我感兴趣的领域。

在麦肯锡工作，确实能让人在短时间内积累丰富经验，但这里从来不是我想发展事业的地方，所以我又回到了校园。目前我正在攻读一个 3 年制的学位，是斯坦福大学 (Stanford)工商管理硕士 (MBA)和哈佛肯尼迪政府学院 (Kennedy school of government)公共管理与国际发展硕士 (MPA/ID)二者的结合。

每年夏季，我都会通过开展小型咨询项目，积累实践经验。去年夏天，我在孟加拉，为一家盈利性公益企业工作。我们和非盈利组织 Brac 合作，开发了一项移动技术，供在农村地区护理孕妇的医疗工作者使用。我从中体悟到，自己今后想要为社会性企业打造量身定制的方案。此外，我决定在中国呆一个月，因为我想找到以下问题的答案：“如果我回到国内从事公益工作，结果会怎样呢？”这一点对我来说很重要，因为在文化差异最小的地方，比较容易发挥出最大的作用。于是，我见到了国内许多领先的公益投资者——他们是从事开创性工作的个人和机构。结果非常鼓舞人心，他们大大激起了我的干劲。在千里之外，你会以为中国的公益事业极其落后，极其官僚。但是，一定程度上正是因为规模小，所以机会众多。对我来说，过去 4 周已经纠正了我一些先入为主的看法。

我目前以北京为据点，我对中国的流动人口非常感兴趣。他们确实是中国经济增长的引擎，但是他们没有社会保障网络，特别是在医疗方面，而这正是我目前专注的领域。我也在思考把我在孟加拉和印度看到的模型，应用到中国的非盈利组织和社会性企业。我希望毕业后能够从事这个领域的工作。可能是在任何一个地方，不过在中国会有很多机会。