7-Year Statement (2014-2020) Page 39

Future Procurement

Three potential procurement activities may be anticipated over the subsequent period from 2015 to 2020:

Additional Desalination Capacity. As described in section 2.4, Salalah needs new water desalination

capacity soon, and a water-only IWP may be procured with capacity up to about 80,000 m3/d (18

MIGD).

Power Generation Capacity. The Salalah 2 IPP is expected to provide sufficient capacity to meet the

generation security standard until around 2021, depending upon demand growth. Procurement

activities to meet the next plant, nominally the Salalah 3 IPP (or potentially IWPP), may be expected

to begin around 2017.

Temporary Generation. There is a possibility that temporary generation may be required in 2017,

before the Salalah 2 IPP is operational, in the event that demand were to follow the High Case

scenario. This will be reassessed in the coming years.

2.7 FUEL REQUIREMENTS

2013 Fuel Usage

Both power generation plants in the Salalah System use natural gas. Total gas consumption in 2013 was about

0.72 billion Sm3 (equivalent to 2 million Sm3/d), about the same as in 2012 despite 9% growth in electricity

production. The peak daily gas consumption was 2.4 million Sm3 in 2013, also similar to 2012.

Projected Fuel Requirements

OPWP has prepared indicative projections for the fuel requirements of the Salalah System over the 2014-2020

period, under the Expected Demand, Low Case and High Case demand scenarios. These projections are based

on a number of key assumptions, including:

new gas-fueled generation, the Salalah 2 IPP, is assumed to be added in 2018, with a similar fuel

efficiency to the Salalah IWPP;

any generation shortfalls, such as if the demand followed the High Case scenario, would be met by

diesel-fueled temporary generation; and

no commercial imports or exports over the PDO interconnection are assumed to occur.

The projections are shown in Figure 14.