7-Year Statement (2014-2020) Page 45 The Low Case scenario assumes a lower rate of growth associated with general residential and commercial demand, and assumes that only 25% of planned industrial loads materialize within the forecast period (i.e., that development takes more time). Under the Low Case scenario, peak demand is expected to grow at an average of 29% per year, from 19 MW in 2013 to 111 MW in 2020. Energy demand increases at 35% annually, from 60.8 GWh in 2013 to 500.4 GWh. None of these demand scenarios include the 1000 MW aluminum smelter that is being considered for development in the Ad Duqm Zone. If confirmed, this project may be added to the electricity demand forecast and capacity plan in future. Musandam The Musandam Governorate expects future developments aimed to boost touristic, economic, and commercial activities. The specific nature and details of these developments are in many cases not yet well defined. Therefore, forecast scenarios have been developed—Expected Demand, Low Case, and High Case—on the basis of differing assumptions of average annual growth rates for overall demand. Observation of out-turns against these forecasts, and further details of specific projects, are expected to allow refinement of the forecast methodology in future. The three demand scenarios are shown in Figure 16 below. Under the Expected Demand forecast, average hourly demand is expected to grow from 35 MW (corresponding to 0.31 TWh) in 2014 to 53 MW (0.46 TWh) in 2020, an average increase of 7% per year. Peak demand is also assumed expected to grow at 7% per year, from 65 MW in 2014 to 98 MW in 2020. The High Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 8% per year in peak demand. With corresponds to a growth in peak demand from 66 MW in 2014 to 107 MW in 2020. The Low Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 5% for both peak demand and energy. Figure 16 Electricity Demand Projections – Musandam Governorate - 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MW "Low Case" Average Demand Expected Average Demand "High Case" Average Demand Expected Peak Demand "Low Case" Peak Demand "High Case" Peak Demand

7 Years Statement 2014-2020 49

Download PDF Report

Upload
bharathanin
View
220
Download
1

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

OPWP Plan 2020 Page 49

Citation preview

7-Year Statement (2014-2020) Page 45

The Low Case scenario assumes a lower rate of growth associated with general residential and commercial

demand, and assumes that only 25% of planned industrial loads materialize within the forecast period (i.e.,

that development takes more time). Under the Low Case scenario, peak demand is expected to grow at an

average of 29% per year, from 19 MW in 2013 to 111 MW in 2020. Energy demand increases at 35% annually,

from 60.8 GWh in 2013 to 500.4 GWh.

None of these demand scenarios include the 1000 MW aluminum smelter that is being considered for

development in the Ad Duqm Zone. If confirmed, this project may be added to the electricity demand forecast

and capacity plan in future.

Musandam

The Musandam Governorate expects future developments aimed to boost touristic, economic, and

commercial activities. The specific nature and details of these developments are in many cases not yet well

defined. Therefore, forecast scenarios have been developedExpected Demand, Low Case, and High Caseon

the basis of differing assumptions of average annual growth rates for overall demand. Observation of out-turns

against these forecasts, and further details of specific projects, are expected to allow refinement of the

forecast methodology in future. The three demand scenarios are shown in Figure 16 below.

Under the Expected Demand forecast, average hourly demand is expected to grow from 35 MW

(corresponding to 0.31 TWh) in 2014 to 53 MW (0.46 TWh) in 2020, an average increase of 7% per year. Peak

demand is also assumed expected to grow at 7% per year, from 65 MW in 2014 to 98 MW in 2020.

The High Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 8% per year in peak demand. With corresponds to a growth

in peak demand from 66 MW in 2014 to 107 MW in 2020. The Low Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 5%

for both peak demand and energy.

Figure 16 Electricity Demand Projections Musandam Governorate

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MW

"Low Case" Average Demand Expected Average Demand "High Case" Average Demand

Expected Peak Demand "Low Case" Peak Demand "High Case" Peak Demand