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8/8/2019 8 Engine Transmission Tech Road Ma Ping Consequences Oportunities for Lube Fuel JPastor Infineum SBurns Ricardo DAP Forum April 20 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/8-engine-transmission-tech-road-ma-ping-consequences-oportunities-for-lube 1/24
Engine and Transmission Technology Roadmapping:
Consequences and Opportunities for Lubricant andFuels Development
2010 API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum,April 20th – Detroit
Shea Burns, Senior Manager, Ricardo Strategic Consulting, USA
© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMIT
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Agenda
• o a ren s an emes
•
• Consequences and opportunities for lubricants and fuels
• Conclusions
2
Co
© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 2 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2
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What’s going on ……?Global trends and themes
Situation:
• Global automotive industr is under oin ra id chan e
• “Mega Trends” are impacting OEMs, suppliers and consumers
• Fuel economy standards, emissions legislation, globalisation, and the rise ofemerging markets are creating new opportunities & pressures
Complication:
• Economic downturn is accelerating the changes:
• After the highs of 2000-2007, slow recovery from 2009-2010
• Financial distress among suppliers and OEMs is leading to consolidation and
• Tailpipe emissions remain important but fuel economy standards and CO 2dominate R&D budgets and are the major powertrain technology drivers
3
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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 3 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2
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Industry undergoing rapid change: “Mega Trends”im act consumers, OEMs & su liers
Global trends and themes
• Major markets suffered most in downturn – NA, EU, Japan• Western sales growth “catch-up” until 2014, “real” growth in China, India
& Central / Eastern Euro e
Macro EconomicEnvironment
Legislation • Fuel economy, CO 2, safety & end of use legislation increase product cost
• Shift of growth and market power to global institutions• Regional advantages become a lever for global competitivenessGlobalisation
• More focus on small cars and smaller enginesProblem for OEMs who rely on large, premium vehicle profitabilityModel Mix
• Growing pressures from CO 2, and emissions reduction targets• Consumers want clean transport but don’t want to pay extra for it
• New technologies add complexity/risk & cost for OEMs and supply chain
Climate
Change Debate
• Complex road maps with no obvious winning technology• Shortage of skills and capacity to develop and deliver new technologies
TechnologyChallenges
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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 4 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2
row o ow cos ve c es an en ry o new s n o ma ure mar e s• R&D spend level or rising, despite lower levels of industry profitability Performance
8/8/2019 8 Engine Transmission Tech Road Ma Ping Consequences Oportunities for Lube Fuel JPastor Infineum SBurns Ricardo DAP Forum April 20 2010
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Minimal sales growth expected in EU, USA or Japan:Emer in markets are ke to rowth
Global trends and themes
30 25
30
Car sales [million units]
10
15
20
25
30
10
15
20
25
5
10
15
20
10
15
20
25
+3%+3%
+0%
+2%
0
5
2008 2009 2015
0
2008 2009 2015
2008 2009 2015
25
30
0
5
2008 2009 2015WesternEurope
EasternEurope
North America Japan+10%
10
15
20
25
30
15
20
25
30
0
5
1015
0
5
2008 2009 20150
5
2008 2009 2015
2008 2009 2015
South America Africa /Middle East
Asia –excl. Japan
+1%CAGR
2008 - 2015
5
Co
© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 5 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo Analysis, JD Power GCATT Q110
Main winners are China, India and Africa/Middle East Emerging Asian markets are now larger than North America or Europe
8/8/2019 8 Engine Transmission Tech Road Ma Ping Consequences Oportunities for Lube Fuel JPastor Infineum SBurns Ricardo DAP Forum April 20 2010
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… Resulting in stark choices for OEMsGlobal trends and themes
INNOVATE AND
MOVE EASTAND/OR
DIE…OR
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Agenda
• o a ren s an emes
•
• Consequences and opportunities for lubricants and fuels
• Conclusions
7
Co
© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 7 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2
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Increasing fuel consumption & emissions pressure:Drivin develo ment of new owertrain technolo ies
Technology roadmapping
Legislation Competition• Taxation: Emissions & efficiency
related taxes (CO 2 /NOx)
• Zero Emissions Vehicle
• Increasing OEM activities• Alternative powertrains as a
competitive measure• “ ”a orn a ene s
• Incentives: e.g. “CongestionCharge” toll exemption (London)
for future full battery EVs
Conventionalpowertrain
• Limited resources/supply
• Oil security fears• Continued increase in
• Cost / value proposition
• Increasing price sensitivity• Public awareness of climateconsumption
• Increased use of biofuelchange and global warming
• Increasing environmentalconcerns
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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 8 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo Analysis
8/8/2019 8 Engine Transmission Tech Road Ma Ping Consequences Oportunities for Lube Fuel JPastor Infineum SBurns Ricardo DAP Forum April 20 2010
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For the first time fuel economy and CO 2 legislation isintroduced across the world with challen in tar ets
Technology roadmapping
Fuel economy / CO 2 legislation for light duty vehicles
NHTSA CAFE EISA binding
USA 50States 35 US mpg
Pass Car (US mpg)
Light Truck (US mpg)
27.5 37.8
28.8
34.125.3
23.5
arge or
Fleet Average (US mpg)
Europe 140 g/km CO 2Voluntary target,not met by 2008
130 /km CO 2015
Proposed passenger carlong term target
Mandatory target phase-in 95 /km
Japan
CO 2
Fleet average fuel economy targets forpassenger cars & light trucks (<2.5t)15.3 16.8km/l km/l
China Phase 1 (2005)
Phase 2 (2008) 21 - 43 mpg by 2008
19 - 38 mpg by 2005
India
2005 20152010 20252020
No fuel economy or CO 2 legislation currently in place
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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 9 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2Source: Ricardo EMLEG databaseNHTSA = National Highway Traffic Safety Administration CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy, FE = Fuel economy
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Most cars in Europe do not meet proposed CO2standard: The most rofitable face reatest challen e
Technology roadmapping
450“Growth & Compliance”
Vehicles“Profit”Vehicles
350
400
/ k m )
300
c l e C O 2 (
200
b i n e d C
y
100
N E D
C C o
Permitted specific
emissions of CO 2by vehicle weight
0
50 Gasoline Vehicles Diesel Vehicles
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© Ricardo plc 2009RD.09/47503.2 © Ricardo PLC 2010 10 © Copyright INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2
Vehicle Test Inertia (kg)
Source: kba, Ricardo analysis
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Government policy & customer preference:Can be conflictin market drivers …..
Technology roadmapping
Political &
Legislative
Environmental Legislation
Market Maturity• Diverse market drivers
a n g e
Energy Securityar e r vers no necessar y
align with legislator views
• Surve s & market research do
r s o
f C h
Economics/Commercial
Oil Price/Pump Price
Cost/Value Propositionnot always reflect whatcustomers do !
D r i v e conom c s s e.g.
$140/barrel of oil can change
both legislative and consumerdrivers
TCO*: Affordability/Incentive
CustomerDemand
Social desirability &responsibility
• Significant regional variationsare always present
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*Note: ICE = Internal Combustion Engine. TCO = Total Cost of OwnershipSource: Ricardo Analysis
Product Supply
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Incremental powertrain improvements are the mostTechnology roadmapping
Powertrain Cost : Benefit Analysis Impact
• Continuous improvement ofconventional ICEs
•
CO 2 Reductionvs. Current Gasoline Unit
50% Fuel Cell
diesel
• Hybrids will deliver efficiency40% Hybrid
PHEV/EV
, -
• CO2 benefits of PHEV/EV dependon renewables content of electricity
30%
Diesel
• Automated transmissions canfurther improve economy by up to10%
20%
ImprovedGasoline
over enc mar manua s
• All technologies must addressconsumer utility and cost200%
0%0% 50% 100% 150% 250% 300%
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requ remen sPowertrain Cost Increasevs. Current Gasoline Unit
Source: Ricardo Analysis
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Uncertainty around alternative powertrains:ICE continues to be dominant ower source
Technology roadmapping
Indicative EU Powertrain Share Forecasts to 2030 ConsequencesINDICATIVE
100%
Fuel Cell
• The powertrain picture to2030 is uncertain
• “ ”
Market Share
75%
Pure EV
Diesel
Internal Combustion Enginelikely to remain the largestsingle application
50%
DieselHybrid
• Hybrid and plug-in hybrid willgrow, mainly at the expenseof diesel, as emissions
25%
GasolinePHEV
compliance becomesincreasingly expensive
• Pure EVs will row fromGasolineHybrid
Gasoline
2012
• Fuel cells start to appear insmall numbers from 2025
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Ricardo Analysis
Year
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Transmission production mix is strongly regional;Advanced automation oised for rowth
Technology roadmapping
Transmission Production Preferences and Trends (1/2)
• Preference for automatic transmissions driven b ease of drivin & comfort
NorthAmerica
• CVTs (Continuously Variable) will gain share, led by Japanese OEMs• DCTs (Dual Clutch) will enter sub-compact segment, as OEMs leverage
European technology• Preference for manual transmissions, moving from 5 to 6 speed• AMTs likely to grow: Cost effective but with refinement challenges• DCTs will capture market share, development focus on efficiency, launchEurope
performance and cost competitiveness• CVTs not liked in Europe; technology expected to remain niche
Japan • eve opmen r ven y apanese eman an power-sp y rrequirements
China • China will remain mainly manual, with automation split between CVT, DCTand conventional automatic
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• India will grow demand for lowest cost manual transmissionsIndia
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Agenda
• o a ren s an emes
•
• Consequences and opportunities for lubricants and fuels
• Conclusions
17
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Consequences and opportunities
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Introduction of advanced powertrains provides oppor-tunities for lubricant, fuel and additive innovation
Consequences and opportunities
Gasoline Diesel Transmissions & Hybrid
• Engine downsizing• Improved fuel injection
equipment
• Engine downsizing• Lean operation
• Ethanol blends
• Dual clutch transmissions• Advanced automatic
Transmissions• Exhaust gas recirculation• Aftertreatment for
NOx/ PM control
• Valve train complexity• Turbo boosting/
su erchar in
• Start/stop & micro hybrid• Full hybrid & PHEV• New materials
• New materials• New materials
• Submerged electrical parts
EBDI ®
“Extreme Downsizing” NZED “Diesel for Tier 2 Bin 2” eDCT TM “Efficient Automation”
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Consequences and opportunities
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Consequences and opportunities (2/3):Transmission lubricants
q pp
Transmission Lubricants Consequences & Opportunities
SteppedAutomaticTransmissions
• ore gears, g er power ens ty
• Fluid solutions to reduce torque convertor and actuation losses,
and to prevent fatigue
• Wet clutch performance with manual transmission performance• Compatibility with submerged electronics and seal materials
• Fluids to deliver high torque transfer combined with appropriateclutch friction characteristics
CVT• Fluids optimised for future generations of CVT
• Lower viscosity, better air release, and electronics compatibility
• High performance fluids for future hybrid optimised transmissions
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• High dielectric strength with excellent viscometric properties
Consequences and opportunities
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Consequences and opportunities (3/3):Fuels
q pp
Fuels Consequences & Opportunities
Advanced Diesel
• Intolerant to deposits requires cleanliness additives to ensurelong term power, fuel economy and emissions compliance
• Enhanced lubricity additives to cope with higher pressures andFuel Injection new materials• Higher injector operating temperatures potential need for new
bulk fuel stability additives
• 1st generation Additives for stability, cleanliness and cold flowproperties
o ese • 2nd generation Potentially specific solutions for cold flow andcontinued treatment with lubricity additives
Fuel Economy/EmissionsS stems
• Fuel borne catalysts for diesel particulate filter regeneration mayoffer better compromise on fuel economy/DPF performance
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Consequences and opportunities
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Consequences and opportunities:Issues and concerns
Issues & Concerns
•
Fuel Economy
•
m ss on ystemCompatibility
•
o- eve opmentvalue generation
mandatory delivery of FEover vehicle lifetime
•
• Long oil life
• High fuel economy
hardware is expensive
• Increasing requirement-
become an integral partof the delivery system• Hardware durability
• Emissions systemcompatibility
fluid & hardwaredevelopers
•Requires compromise
engagement
How do we ensure the correct fluids are used
How do we deliver the best compromise for
How do we ensure the system value of these high value fluids is shared fairl
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over t e ve c e et me sta e o ers between stakeholders ?
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Agenda
• o a ren s an emes
•
• Consequences and opportunities for lubricants and fuels
• Conclusions
23
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Conclusions
• The principal drivers for hardware evolution to 2030 will be emissions
reduction
• incrementally, resulting in a mix of solutions with no obvious outright winners
•
supported by increasingly sophisticated transmissions
• Performance challen es offered b the introduction of advanced hardware willprovide opportunities to create value for fluid developers, marketers and OEMs
• Early collaboration and hardware/fluid co-development will be essential toensure maximum value and benefit to all stakeholders
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