OCDE Meeting12/02/2007

1

A changing labour market for graduates in

France

GIRET Jean-François

Céreq

2

The French context A rapid expansion of the students’

number during the last decades of the twentieth century

A less expanding need for qualified labourA growing problem of graduate unemployment. A transition process from higher education

more difficult and longerA problem of professional downgrading (or

overeducation) and occupational mismatch.

3

Methods and data Normative methods to study overeducation and

occupational mismatch. Over-education /professional downgrading

• The difference between actual qualifications held and required qualifications for the job (overeducation if positive)

• Affichard (1981) Occupational mismatch

• A non correspondence between the field of study and the job specialization

Beduwé and alii (1993) Data :

French Labour Force Survey National longitudinal data on French school and

university leavers (Céreq)

Overeducation rate by educational level

3 years after leaving school (French labour force survey)

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

CAP / BEP BAC Supérieur court Supérieur long Ensemble

Années de sortie du système éducatif

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Over education rate evolution (longitudinal approach by generation of school leavers)

en %

Years after the end of the school

School leavers in 3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years 15 years 1974 19 20 1980 32 28 26 22 20 1985 38 36 27 27 26 1988 28 30 30 28 1992 40 37 35 29 1995 46 39 36

Source : enquêtes Emploi (INSEE).

Occupational match for labour market entrants

School and university leavers in 92 School and university leavers in 98

First job

5 years after

Evolution First job 5 years after Evolution

% % % % % % All the educational levels 41,1 42,8 1,7 39,4 42,4 3

All educational fields

Higher education (bachelor or master degree) 49,7 53,3 3,6 46,1 51,6 5,5 Bac+2 47,3 52,7 5,4 44,0 49,8 5,8 Baccalaureate 30,3 31,9 1,6 31,1 33,6 2,5 Vocational qualification in secondary education 42,9 40,5 -2,4 39,8 38,8 -1

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The « double mismatch »First job obtained after leaving school (graduates)

Only 32 % among young people

see their qualification match and their job specialization match !

Job specialization

Adjusted Mismatch All

Adjusted 32% 15 % 47 % Overeducated 14 % 39 % 53 %

Job qualification

All 46 % 54 % 100 %

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Match and mismatch, first job and five years later,(higher education graduates)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Match (qualification, job specialization)

Job specialization mismatch, job qualification match

Job qualification mismatch, job specialization mismatch

Job qualification mismatch, job specialization match

First job

Five years laters

Correlation with other effects

Over-education Wage effects:

A wage loss• (> 10%)

Other effects A higher unsatisfaction

rate A higher turnover No relationship with

occupational training

occupational mismatch

Wage effects: A moderate wage loss

• (between 0 and 5%) Other effects

No relationship with the unsatisfaction rate

No relationship with the turnover

No relationship with the occupational training

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An example : the new labour market prospects for the bachelor's degree graduates

The vocational bachelor degree: created in 1999 (three years of study after the

baccalaureate) students must have first completed a two years of

higher education either at university (Deug) or within a vocational degree (BTS or DUT).

The third year is employment-oriented coherent with the three-circle framework “3-5-8” of

the Bologna Process can be followed by a master degree

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Does a vocational bachelor tend to be really associated with specific outcomes ?

An statistical evaluation students must have completed at least two years of

higher education and are admitted only after the basis an interview.

In other words, the admittance is based on a selection, which is not the case for general studies.

statistical method based on non parametric matching estimator

Idea : to choose a control group to match the participant group (vocational bachelor graduates) on as many observable attributes as possible in order to neutralize the selection effect

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Wages and qualification mismatch 1. The wage gap between general and vocational

bachelor : do the returns from a bachelor degree, which

correspond to three years of study in higher education vary according to the type of programme (general or vocational)

Results : a wage premium in favour of vocational bachelor graduates

1462 € voc bach, 1256 € gen bachelor ATT=>1462 € voc bach, 1275 € gen bachelor

=>187 €2. Qualification mismatch • Results : a lower level of overeducation for voc bach.

17% voc bach, 26% gen bachelor ATT=> 17% voc bach, 35% gen bachelor

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End…

Thank you

14

Overducation rate, 5 years after leaving school

Taux de déclassement en

mars 2003

Mesure subjective (diplôme) 25 %

Mesure subjective (niveau de compétences) 32 %

Mesure statistique socioprofessionnelle 20 %

Mesure normative du déclassement 30 %

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Propensity score (probit)completing a vocational bachelor’s degree / an academic bachelor’s degree.

Probability (Y=vocational bacherlor graduate) Educational background

• age in the first year of secondary education (non significant)

• final secondary education diploma (vocational and technical baccalaureate versus general scientific baccalaureate, other general baccalaureate) (significant)

• first course in higher education (significant)• field of study during the bachelor year. (significant)

Others characteristics : • gender (significant)• geographic area (significant)• work experience during the study (significant,-)• family socio-economic status…(non significant)

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Public body under the aegis of the Ministry of National Education, Higher Education and Research and the Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion

Assignments Céreq is involved in :

• the production of statistics,• in research activity • in providing support for the implementation of policies.

A public pole of expertise in training and employment Advice and proposals for the training policy at regional,

national or international level

Resources 160-member staff, two third of them are researchers

A Base in Marseilles

Centre d’études et de Centre d’études et de recherches sur les recherches sur les

QualificationsQualifications

CEREQ’S ORGANISATIONCEREQ’S ORGANISATION

Administrative Board

Scientific Council

Ministries in charge :

•Ministry for National Education, Higher Education and Research

•Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion

General SecretaryDeputy Director

Director

International Relations

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Regional Network and Decentralisation

DEVA

Transition to Working Life

1 Head of Unit14 researchers

DFC

Continuing Vocational

Training

1 Head of Unit13 researchers

DTF

Work and Training

1 Head of Unit10 researchers

DPMT

Occupations and the Labour Market

1 Head of Unit12 researchers

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