A climate change impact assessment on the spread of furunculosis in the

Ouje-Bougoumou region.

By Benita Tam

A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of

Masters in Geography, collaborated in Environment and Health.

Graduate Department of Geography

University of Toronto

© Copyright by Benita Tam 2008

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Benita Tam. A climate change impact assessment on the spread of furunculosis in the Ouje0Bougoumou region. 2008. Masters of Science in Geography, collaborated with Environment and Health. Graduate Department of Geography, University of Toronto.

Abstract

A climate change impact assessment was conducted to examine the spread of furunculosis

found in the fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou; and subsequently to examine the resulting

impacts on the health of the community. A past assessment was performed to assess whether

there was a temporal relationship between increased temperatures and past incidences of

furunculosis using observed climate data and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) data. To

project future impacts of climate change, climate models, lake models and TEK were used.

Findings show that the rise in air mean temperature coincides with the timeline of past

incidences of furunculosis. It is predicted that the lake temperatures will remain suitable for the

presence of A. salmonicida; thus, it is likely that the disease will persist throughout the twenty-

first century. Climate change is not eliminated as a plausible factor to the onset of furunculosis;

rather, it is argued that a combination of stress factors, i.e. past mining activities and warmer

temperatures, put the fish species at a greater risk to furunculosis.

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Acknowledgements

First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisors, Dr. William Gough and Dr. Len Tsuji, for all their help, guidance, invaluable knowledge, and financial assistance throughout this study. I would like to thank the Ouje-Bougoumou community. Without their approval and participation, the completion of this study would not have been possible. Special thanks to the participant/tour guide that took us out to Lac Obatogamau, and provided detailed maps, historical information, and personal experiences pertinent to the study. I would like to thank the Ouje-Bougoumou research team: Dr. Len Tsuji, Eric Liberda, and Dan McCarthy. I give much appreciation to Dr. Len Tsuji and Eric Liberda for their assistance in collecting the traditional ecological knowledge and bathymetry data used for the study. I would like to thank the University of Toronto, Department of Geography for providing me with the McMaster research fund to cover my research expenses, and IHRDP and SSHRC for the financial support. I would also like to thank my sister, Clara Chang, for her support and assistance in proofreading my entire thesis. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family for their continual encouragement and support throughout my Master’s studies.

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Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1: Introduction........................................................................................................ 1

Purpose and objectives ........................................................................................................ 2

CHAPTER 2: Literature Review............................................................................................... 3

Recent research.................................................................................................................... 3

Furunculosis ........................................................................................................................ 4

Climate change .................................................................................................................... 8

Aboriginal issues ............................................................................................................... 10

Aboriginal perspectives ..................................................................................................... 11

CHAPTER 3: Study areas and exposure unit.......................................................................... 12

CHAPTER 4: Methods............................................................................................................ 15

Methods for research objective 1. ..................................................................................... 16

Methods for research objective 2. ..................................................................................... 20

Methods for research objective 3. ..................................................................................... 23

Methods for research objective 4 ...................................................................................... 31

Methods for research objective 5 and 6. ........................................................................... 31

Methods for traditional ecological knowledge ................................................................. 31

CHAPTER 5: Results.............................................................................................................. 33

a. Temporal analysis ....................................................................................................... 33

b. Spatial data .................................................................................................................... 35

TEK: Interview with an expert field guide/ community member ..................................... 38

Climate change projections ............................................................................................... 40

Online FLake model results .............................................................................................. 43

Offline FLake model results.............................................................................................. 47

Summary of climate change projections ........................................................................... 50

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Fish species........................................................................................................................ 52

Past TEK findings ............................................................................................................. 54

TEK: Interview with an expert field guide/ community member ..................................... 54

CHAPTER 6: Discussion ........................................................................................................ 55

Timeline of temperature and incidences of furunculosis .................................................. 55

Climate change scenarios between 2011 and 2100 ........................................................... 56

Climate change and fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou ..................................................... 57

Furunculosis temperature range ........................................................................................ 60

Fish located in different depths of the lakes...................................................................... 61

Impacts of climate change on fish species ........................................................................ 64

Changes in seasonal time length ....................................................................................... 64

Changes in dissolved oxygen levels of a lake ................................................................... 65

TEK analysis ..................................................................................................................... 66

The significance of past mining activities ......................................................................... 67

Health impacts on the Aboriginal community .................................................................. 69

CHAPTER 7: Conclusions and recommendations for further research.................................. 70

Broader implications on the spread of furunculosis .......................................................... 72

Recommendations for further research ............................................................................. 73

REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………… .……...74

APPENDIX I ........................................................................................................................... 83

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List of Figures

Figure 1. Map of Ouje-Bougoumou (Google, 2007)……………………………. …..………..13 Figure 2. Map of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau (Hydro Quebec, 2003) ...……......14 Figure 3. Equation to convert relative humidity into absolute humidity (NCAR, 2004)…......28 Figure 4. Appendix I. Questionnaire………...…………………………………………….......83 Figure 5. Temperature Means of May to September of Ouje-Bougoumou (1963-2001)…......34 Figure 6. Bathymetry map of Lac Chibougamau and Lac aux Dores (Trakmaps, Lac

Chibougamau, 2008)………………………………………………………………......36 Figure 7. Appendix I. Bathymetry map of Lac Opemisca………………………………….....84 Figure 8. Forecast of annual mean temperatures from 2011 to 2100 ...………………………39 Figure 9. Forecast of summer mean temperatures from 2011 to 2100………………………..40 Figure 10. Current maximum surface and bottom water temperatures of Lac Obatogamau

produced with FLake…………………………………………………………………..44 Figure 11. Current maximum surface and bottom water temperature of Lac Chibougamau

produced with FLake…. ………………………………………………………………45 Figure 12. Theoretical current location of fish species in Lac Obatogamou.………………….63 Figure 13. Theoretical location of fish species in Lake Obatogamou in very warm climate

conditions………………………………………………………………………………64

List of Tables Table 1. Bathymetry data of Lac Obatogamau……………………………………………...…37 Table 2. Comparing annual and summer baseline projections to actual annual and

summer temperature averages (°C) of Ouje-Bougoumou (1963-1990)…….………….41 Table 3. Comparing climate change projections to the projected summer baseline

averages (°C)……………………………………………………………….……...…...42 Table 4. Maximum surface water temperature of Lac Obatogamou……………….…………..45 Table 5. Maximum surface water temperature of Lac Chibougamau…………….……………45 Table 6. Lac Obatogamau water temperature (°C) transposition scenarios…….………...……46 Table 7. Lac Chibougamau water temperature (°C) transposition scenarios….……………….47 Table 8. Appendix I. File of lake parameters to be inputted into Flake for Lac

Obatogamau. ……………………………………………………………………….…..85 Table 9. Appendix I. File of lake parameters to be inputted into Flake for Lac

Chibougamau. ……………………………………………………………………….…86 Table 10. Maximum and Summer mean surface water temperatures (°C ) of offline FLake

scenarios………………………………………………………………………………..49 Table 11. Summer mean water temperature and bottom mean water temperature (°C ) of

offline FLake scenarios………………………………………………………………...50 Table 12. Summary of climate change projections of summer mean temperature (°C ) for

A2 scenarios and offline FLake scenarios………………………….……………….….52 Table 13. Chart of fish species descriptions………….…………………….…….…..………. 53

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CHAPTER 1: Introduction

Recently in the traditional Ouje-Bougoumou territory, game fish with sores and lesions have

been diagnosed with furunculosis caused by Aeromonas salmonicida in Lac Chibougamau and

Lac Obatogamau (“Albert’s Fish Part 1”, 1999; Travers, 1999). The etiology of this condition

is still unknown, though there has been much speculation that nearby mining sites may have

played a factor. While it is strongly believed that toxic metals from nearby mines are

contaminating the fish populations of Ouje-Bougoumou; this does not entirely explain the

origin of furunculosis. Also, a causal relationship between metals and furunculosis has not

been shown (Bermoth et al., 1997). One factor that has yet to be explored as a possible reason

for the spreading of furunoculosis in game fish is climate change.

The effects of climate change are becoming more evident in the northern regions of Canada,

and its repercussions are affecting the lifestyle of many Aboriginals (Ford et al., 2006). Since

fish is a primary food source to the Ouje-Bougoumou community, an increasing rate of

furunculosis may have a significant effect on the diet of many Aboriginal members. This study

examined the impacts of climate change on the spread of furunculosis, and how this may

impact the lifestyle of the Ouje-Bougoumou community.

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Purpose and objectives

How and when A. salmonicida was transmitted to fish populations of Ouje-Bougoumou

is currently unknown, and the prevalence of this disease has yet to be determined. The

impact of climate change is a factor that has yet to be assessed. There are two main

research questions related to my thesis: 1. What are the implications of climate change on

the spread of furunculosis found in fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou? 2. How will this

impact the health of the community?

The research objectives of the study are:

1. To investigate whether a spatial and temporal pattern exists with the appearance

of furunculosis over the last forty years.

2. To project plausible climate change scenarios.

3. To examine impacts of climate change on the study lakes.

4. To examine the impacts of climate change on the fish species of Ouje-

Bougoumou, and to assess the impacts of climate change on the spread of

furunculosis in the fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou.

5. To collect and collate indigenous knowledge from the Ouje-Bougoumou

traditional territory for greater understanding on the prevalence of the diseased

fish.

6. To determine the potential impacts on the Aboriginal community of Ouje-

Bougoumou as a result of the spread of furunculosis from climate change.

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CHAPTER 2: Literature Review

Current research and the literature provide a broad understanding of the issues explored

in this study. This chapter presents an overview of the most recent findings related to the

study, as well as information on furunculosis, climate change, and Aboriginal issues and

perspectives.

Recent research

First Nation people of the Ouje-Bougoumou community have always subsisted on fish

from these lakes, and so when the fish started to show physical changes, there were great

concerns on the origins of these malformations. These lakes include Lac aux Dores, Lac

Chibougamau, Lac Obatogamau and Lac Nemenjiche (Figure 2). In the late 1990s, an

elder named, Albert Mianscum, discovered that the majority of the fish he caught from

Lac Chibougamau and Lac Obatogamau were showing physical deformities (“Albert’s

Fish Part 1”, 1999; and Travers, 1999). The physical deformities included red sores,

missing eyes, and missing fins (Ullmann, 2005).

Past activities

Since the early 1950s, mining activities have taken place in the Chibougamau region. It

has been suggested that metal contamination is linked to the deformity of fish, as 40.6

cubic tonnes of contaminated waste had been released into Lac Chibougamau and Lac

aux Dores (Nicolls and Stewart, 2005). Covel and Masters (2001) found that these lakes

were heavily contaminated with dangerous metals such as chromium, cadmium, arsenic,

zinc and cyanide. Metal levels far exceeded the allowable limit under the Canadian

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Environmental Quality Guidelines Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines of the Protection

of Aquatic Life (Nicolls and Stewart, 2005). Also, fish from these waterbodies were so

contaminated that in 2001, there were warnings against consuming more than two fish

per month for the members of the Ouje-Bougoumou community (Nicolls and Stewart,

2005). Unfortunately for many, consuming fish is a way of life, and removing such foods

would be unacceptable to them. Community members rely on traditional methods for

obtaining their foods, and harvesting fish is a prevalent method for obtaining food

sustenance (Tsuji et al., 2007).

Past findings

In 2000, sixteen game fish caught from Lac Obatogamau tested positive for A.

salmonicida by a pathologist (Penn, 2000). Of the sixteen samples, it is known that there

were at least two types of species: Sander vitreus, also known as walleye; and

Catostomus commersonii, also known as sucker (Eli, 2007; and Penn, 2000). Other fish

species found in the region include lake trout, river redhorse, white suckers, brook trout,

lake whitefish, northern pike, and burbot (Tsuji et al., 2007), but it is unknown whether

they were infected with furunculosis as well.

Furunculosis

Furunculosis is a fish disease caused by the bacterial pathogen, A. salmonicida. It is also

considered one of the oldest surviving fish diseases in the world (Schachte, 2002). This

disease was first discovered in 1909 in Bayern, Germany, when wild brown trout showed

signs of disfiguration. Furunculosis had spread to other countries, causing an ever-

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growing problem within the aquaculture industry (Austin, 1997; Schachte, 2002). Despite

the numerous research studies conducted, there are still some underlying uncertainties

concerning the nature of the disease. As a result, ongoing research is still being conducted

to explore outstanding issues such as, what causes the first incidences of furunculosis to

occur, and what factors allow the bacterium to survive (Schachte, 2002).

Furunculosis caused by A. salmonicida is only found in fish. Cases of furunculosis found

in other types of mammals are caused by other types of bacteria. A. salmonicida typically

infects freshwater fish species, such as salmonids, cyprinids (Schachte, 2002),

anoplopomids, and serranids (Austin, 1997). Though less likely, it can also affect

seawater fish species (Schachte, 2002).

Diseased fish may have either acute or chronic cases of furunculosis. Clinical signs of

acute cases include changes in skin colour, lesions found on the skin and muscles, and

haemorrhages found on the fins of the fish (Noble and Summerfelt, 1997; Torenzo et al.,

2005). There are also internal symptoms that include swollen kidneys and infected

intestines (Bernoth et al., 1997). The most prominent symptom of furunculosis is the

appearance of boils or lesions, but chronically ill fish can also carry the disease without

showing any clinical symptoms (Bernoth et al., 1997; Hiney et al., 1997). The survival

time for a fish with an acute case of the disease is only a few days (Schachte, 2002). In

contrast, fish infected with chronic cases of furunculosis may have a much longer

survival time. Chronic cases of furunculosis exhibit the same symptoms as acute cases,

but to a lesser degree. Due to dormant cases of furunculosis, the exact duration of the

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survival time for chronic cases remains uncertain. Dormant cases of furunculosis occur

when fish infected with the bacterium are not showing signs of the disease, these fish

may also be known as covert hosts. And because of covert hosts, eradication of this

disease remains uncertain in the fish industry. At times, it is difficult to detect the

bacterium because of asymptomatic or latent carriers, which is why the time of incidence

may not always be known. The pathogen is more likely to be latent in cooler

environments, and highly active in warm environments (Schachte, 2002).

Furunculosis is transmitted through contact with host carriers and diseased fish. Other

than fish, carriers of A. salmonicida include parasites (i.e. sea lice); other mammals (i.e.

birds); and contaminated items (i.e. clothing or equipment) (Johnsen and Jensen, 1994;

Schachte, 2002). A. salmonicida is found in the spleen, gills and external mucus of

infected fish, which allows the pathogen to easily migrate to other fish by entering

through their bodily openings: gills, mouth, anus, or wounds (Austin, 1997).

A. salmonicida can survive in fish for extended periods of time -but when it exits the

host, the bacterium can only exist for a minimal period of time in waterbodies without a

vector (Johnsen and Jensen, 1994; Schachte, 2002). Their survival time significantly

decreases to 3 to 4 days. The waters are hostile environments for A. salmonicida, causing

the number of colony-forming cells to decline (Austin, 1997; Schachte, 2002).

Cases of furunculosis usually occur during the summer season, primarily in July and

August (Schachte, 2002). Furunculosis outbreaks usually occur when ambient air

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temperatures and water temperatures are warm (Johnsen and Jensen, 1994); though cases

of furunculosis may still occur when water temperatures are cool (Austin, 1997; Perry et

al., 2004; Schachte, 2002). The optimum survival temperature for furunculosis is from

12.8 to 21.1°C, but studies have found that the pathogen may still survive in water

temperatures as cool as 0.5 to 1.6 °C (Schachte, 2002). Another report indicated that

furunculosis is commonly found in fish species when water temperatures are 17°C or

above, and furunculosis can be latent when water temperatures are below 7°C (Penn,

2000).

When fish species are stressed or injured, they are at a greater risk of contracting

furunculosis. Fish populations are more susceptible to the disease when waterbodies are

19 °C or higher, polluted, and/or highly populated with fish (Austin, 1997; Perry et al.,

2004). This may explain why stress or injury-induced incidences mimic a seasonal

pattern, as higher temperatures play a prominent role (Hiney et al., 1997). With a

combination of these factors, a stressful environment can aggravate the disease from

being latent to an active state in a fish population (Hiney et al., 1997), increasing the rate

of infection.

To minimize the prevalence of furunculosis, a vaccine has been created to heal and

provide immunity to fish populations inflicted with the disease. These methods are

primarily used in aquaculture farms. These drugs have greatly improved the economy of

this industry, but with that there have been studies that have found evolving antibiotic

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resistance strains of A. salmonicida (Schachte, 2002). Moreover, these vaccines are

seldom used in wildlife settings, making eradication of furunculosis nearly impossible.

Furunculosis has affected lakes and fisheries worldwide. Since 1982, this disease has

been found in fish species of the Great Lakes basin (Sippel, 1982). In 1983, three lakes in

southwestern Quebec were stocked with brook char affected by acute furunculosis; 80-

90% of this stock died within 12 weeks of infection (Dumont, 1983). In 2004, for the first

time, it was reported that the disease had affected sea lampreys in Lake Ontario, a

parasitic fish in the Great Lakes (Faisal et al., 2007). This indicates that furunculosis

caused by A. salmonicida is perpetually occurring and possibly evolving with vaccine-

resistant strains, as it affects more types of species.

Climate change

Climate change is defined as significant changes to climate norms. It is important to

differentiate between climate change and climate variability, where the latter refers to

naturally occurring changes in climate (Porter and Mikhail, 1999). Climate change is

usually associated with anthropogenic activity. Anthropogenic activities, such as burning

of fossil fuels and deforestation, have led to an increase of aerosols and greenhouse gases

(GHGs) in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Increases in GHG and aerosol concentrations in

the atmosphere affect the energy balance of the Earth. Large concentrations of aerosols

and GHGs affect incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation; this results in

an imbalance in the exchange of energy, which has led to the warming of the Earth

(IPCC, 2007). Because human activities have contributed much to the increase in GHG

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concentrations, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), many believe humans to be the cause of

climate change.

Indications of climate change include a rise in global temperatures, greater abnormal

weather patterns, greater extremes, greater variability in precipitation, greater weather

related natural disasters, decrease in ice cover area, rise in sea levels (in certain regions of

the Earth) and changes in lake levels (Furgal and Sequin, 2006; IPCC, 2007).

Consequently, there will be greater snowmelt, greater risk of soil erosion and landslides,

and greater problems of poor water quality (Newton et al., 2005).

Climate change will also have an effect on dimictic lakes and the species that live in

them. The onset of lake stratification will occur earlier in the year, the number of days in

the ice-free season of lakes will increase, and lake water temperatures will increase (De

Stasio et al., 1996). An increase in water temperatures will change the oxygen and

nutrient levels of waterbodies, and possibly changing dimictic waterbodies to monomictic

waterbodies (Mortsch and Quinn, 1996; Reist et al., 2006). As climate change degrades

the nutrient richness of waterbodies, this will decrease the growth rate and reproductive

rate of a fish. In addition, the rise in water temperatures will increase the thermal habitat

of most fish species, though a rise in maximum surface water temperatures may exceed

the thermal maxima of other fish species (De Stasio et al., 1996).

The rise in water temperatures will broaden the habitat range of some fish populations,

but not for Arctic fish (Reist et al., 2006). Arctic fish species have a restricted tolerance

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zone. If water temperatures exceed their thermal optima, the environment becomes very

stressful for the fish. This will weaken the body of the fish (Reist et al., 2006), making

them more susceptible to disease and disfiguration.

There is evidence that climate change is already occurring. The global surface

temperature has increased, sea levels in certain regions of the Earth have increased, and

Arctic ice cover area has decreased (IPCC, 2007). For example, the global annual mean

temperature has increased by 0.7 °C over the past century (Easterling et al., 2005).

Between 1995 and 2006, all but one year registered the warmest recorded global surface

temperature since 1850 (IPCC, 2007). There have been changes in global precipitation

patterns as well: the eastern coasts of North and South America, and parts of Europe and

Asia have seen an increase in precipitation, while areas of Africa and southern Asia, the

Sahel and the Mediterranean have seen a decrease in precipitation (IPCC, 2007).

Aboriginal issues

Aboriginal communities are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Ford et al,

2006). Environmental changes due to climate change will ultimately result in changes to

their lifestyle, social interactions, cultural aspects, and methods of subsistence (Ford et al,

2006). The traditional diet of indigenous people is predominantly game meat and fish.

Such foods are obtained using traditional methods, such as hunting, fishing and trapping.

Unfortunately, fish and other game meat are becoming more inaccessible or

inconsumable due to changing environments, causing many Aboriginals to resort to

market foods. Willows (2005) found that for many Aboriginals who purchase market

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foods, the average intake is higher in fat and sugar, and lower in essential vitamins. Poor

food decisions can lead to greater health problems (i.e. obesity and malnutrition) and

food security issues within the community.

Aboriginal perspectives

Indigenous cultures live by traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). It is well defined by

Berkes et al. (2001): “[TEK is] a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief

evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural

transmission, about the relationship of living beings with one another and with their

environment.” Through TEK, indigenous traditions, such as certain hunting methods and

traditional foods, are sustained (Berkes et al., 2001). Unlike scientific research, TEK

embodies a holistic view of the environment.

Indigenous perspectives are integrative (Aikenhead and Ogawa, 2007). TEK connects

humans and animals together with their land, and a personal relationship is built among

the interactions of people, communities, and ecosystems of their environment (Aikenhead

and Ogawa, 2007). Indigenous communities have witnessed changes to their

surroundings, and using their own traditional methods, they have connected them to

certain causes (Berkes et al., 2001). This information is vital particularly for temporal

analyses. Since indigenous culture and environmental facts are transferred from

generation to generation, there is a chronological understanding of the environment. On

another note, broken communication may exist through the transfer of traditional

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knowledge (Drew, 2005). Thus, researchers should acknowledge that some TEK data

might vary due to different perspectives on historical events.

By examining the relationship between furunculosis and climate change, this study

challenges the hypothesis that waste from past mining activities is the main cause to the

prevalence of diseased fish. The Ouje-Bougoumou community possess pertinent

information on the development of the disease concurrent with the changes to the

environment. Such traditional knowledge is key to reaching a comprehensive

understanding on the significance between climate change and the spread of furunculosis.

CHAPTER 3: Study areas and exposure unit

Study area: Ouje-Bougoumou

Ouje-Bougoumou is located in the southern region of James Bay, Quebec. Residing in

this area is a Cree Nation with over six hundred residents (Dewailly et al., 2005). The

name, ‘Ouje-Bougoumou,’ is a Cree word defined as “the place where people gather”

(Goddard, 1994).

In 1960, Ouje-Bougoumou became a mining hotspot for exploration companies. For over

40 years, the Cree Nation of the Ouje-Bougoumou community has been subject to the

influx of these exploration companies, often forcing them to relocate multiple times

(Goddard, 1994). It wasn’t until the early 1990s did the Cree Nation settle at a location

near Lake Opemisca and become a stable community (Goddard, 1994). However to this

13

day, exploration companies are still moving in and extracting in parts of their territory,

dispersing heavy metals and pollutants into their environment (Dewailly et al., 2005).

The geographic coordinates of Ouje-Bougoumou are 49° 55′ 0″ N, 74° 49′ 0″ W

(Canadian Environmental, 2007), which is approximately sixty kilometres west of

Chibougamau and nine hundred sixty-five kilometres north of Montreal (Cooper, 2006

and Dewailly et al., 2005): Figure 1 shows the location of the study area.

Figure 1. Map of Ouje-Bougoumou (Google, 2007).

Ouje-Bougoumou

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Study waterbodies: Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau

Two lakes of interest are Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau. These sites are places

identified by elder Albert Mianscum to have been inhibited by diseased fish (“Albert’s

Fish Part 1”, 1999). Lac Obatogamau is located east of Ouje-Bougoumou (Figure 2):

latitude 49.58 and longitude –74.56 (Morin, 2008). It has a length of 30.3 km, a width of

8.4 km, a perimeter of 278.42 km, and an area of 76.15 km² (Morin, 2008). North of this

lake is Lac Chibougamau: latitude 49.841 and longitude –74.23 (Morin, 2008). The lake

has a length of 24.5 km, a width of 10.8 km, a perimeter of 239.79 km, and an area of

206.16 km².

Figure 2. Map of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau (Hydro Quebec, 2003).

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Exposure unit

The exposure unit of the study is the aquatic ecosystem of the lakes in Ouje-Bougoumou.

In particular, fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou are most vulnerable to climate change and

the spread of furunculosis.

CHAPTER 4: Methods

The conceptual framework used in the study was a climate change impact assessment

(CCIA) that included both scientific and traditional assessments. A CCIA allows for a

complete, structured, and thorough assessment on the impacts of climate change on the

spread of furunculosis found in fish species inhibiting the lakes of the traditional territory

of the Ouje-Bougoumou Cree. Conducting a CCIA also allowed for the inclusion of

expert judgement, in this case TEK (Carter et al., 1996)

Because this issue was centered on the First Nation peoples of the Traditional Ouje-

Bougoumou territory, it was necessary to include their knowledge and experience.

Involving the Ouje-Bougoumou community and understanding their concerns would in

turn deliver results that would be more applicable, comprehensible and valuable to them.

This chapter discusses the steps that were carried out to achieve the goals of the study.

The methodologies presented in this chapter are organized by the relevant research

16

objectives. Methods for TEK collection are explained as a subsection on its own to avoid

repetition.

Research objective 1: To investigate whether a temporal and spatial pattern exists with

the appearance of furunculosis over the past few decades.

In conducting a temporal analysis, past climate data, and past and present TEK findings

were examined. A temporal analysis was conducted to link climate variables to the

appearance of furunculosis found in the local fish. For the spatial analysis, bathymetry

maps and lake dimension data were collected, and a field trip to Ouje-Bougoumou was

taken in June 2008. A spatial analysis provided a geographical perspective on the spread

of furunculosis.

Climate data

To examine past climate conditions in the Ouje-Bougoumou region, temperature data

from Chapais-2 weather station were collected from Environment Canada’s climate data

archives (Environment Canada, Climate Data, 2005). The Chapais-2 weather station is

located at latitude 49.49 and longitude -74.59, which is southwest of both Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau (shown on Figure 2). Climate data were obtained

from this weather station because it was the closest location that had available climate

data required for the study, which were of daily temperature data between 1963 and 2001.

Thus, a temporal analysis was conducted with daily temperature data covering the years

spanning from 1963 to 2001.

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Monthly mean temperature data

Monthly mean temperatures from May to September were calculated from daily data.

The time period was restricted to the months between May and September because

outbreaks of furunculosis in Ouje-Bougoumou are associated with summer seasons

(Schachte, 2002; “Albert’s Fish Part 1”). In linking the disease to temperature, the

optimal temperature range for furunculosis was chosen to be 12.8 to 21.1 °C, and 17°C as

the specific optimal temperature (Penn, 2000; Schachte, 2002).

Maps

Bathymetry maps of Lac Opemisca, Lac Chibougamau, and Lac aux Dores were obtained

from a company called, ‘Trakmaps’ (Trakmaps, Bathymetric Maps, 2008).

Lake dimensions

The mean depth of Lac Chibougamau was calculated using past mean water depths

recorded from 1964 to 1969 by the Water Survey of Canada, Environment Canada

(Environment Canada, Water Survey, 2008). Lake depth was an essential parameter for

the analysis of climate change impacts on the study lakes.

18

For both lakes, other dimensions, such as length, width, perimeter, altitude, surface area

and catchment area, were obtained through the Centre d’expertise hydrique, Ministry of

Quebec (Morin, 2008).

Field trip to Ouje-Bougoumou: measuring water depth of Lac Obatogamau

On June 26th to June 30th 2008, a field research trip to Ouje-Bougoumou, Quebec was

made to collect bathymetry and TEK data. A community member appointed by the Band

office of Ouje-Bougoumou took the research team to certain parts of Lac Obatogamau;

this person was also knowledgeable about the furunculosis issue. Physical data collection

was conducted with respect to bathymetry data of Lac Obatogamau. In the vicinity of

where diseased fish were once found, water depths were measured at various points in

Lac Obatogamau using a fish finder. The fish finder provided the maximum depth,

surface temperature, and the presence of any fish. A topographic map and a geographical

positioning system (GPS) system were used to track the locations of the measuring

points.

Appointment of expert field guide/ community member

The Band office of the Ouje-Bougoumou community appointed an expert field guide for

the research team. This community member was someone that had expert knowledge in

the issues related to furunculosis and the geographical locations of past incidences of the

disease.

19

Validating water depth

The water mean depths of Lac Chibougamau and Lac Obatogamau were compared to the

water depths of nearby lakes: Lacs aux Dores and Lac Opemisca. Referring to a map of

the Chibougamau region, Lac Obatogamau, Lac Opemisca, and Lac aux Dores are

similar in size, though Lac Chibougamau is considerably larger. Also, since these lakes

were formed from the same glacier, it is expected that bathymetric results for Lac

Obatogamau would be similar to those of Lac Opemisca and Lac aux Dores, though

bathymetric values for Lac Chibougamau would be larger.

The mean water depth of Lac aux Dores was calculated using past records (1964-1971)

from the Water Survey of Canada, and the mean water depth of Lac Opemisca was

obtained through TEK data (Trakmaps, Lac Opemisca, 2008). Bathymetry maps of Lac

Chibougamau and Lac aux Dores were also used to validate the depth of Lac

Chibougamau (Trakmaps, Lac Chibougamau, 2008).

TEK data

TEK data were collected to examine the timeframe of past incidences of furunculosis,

and to find the locations of where such incidences occurred. Also, information

concerning what may have affected the fish species in the past was collected.

20

Research objective 2: To project plausible climate change scenarios.

To examine plausible scenarios of climate change, climate change projections were

created.

Climate change models

Climate change projections were created using climate models. Both global and regional

climate models were used in the study. Climate models produce climate change scenarios

that portray simulations of the future climate (Parry and Carter, 1998). These scenarios

are not true predictions of what may come in the future, but they are plausible

descriptions of future climate conditions (Environment Canada, “Constructing

Scenarios”, 2007).

Global climate models

Global climate models (GCMs) produce large-scale projections of the climate system,

representing the physical processes that occur in the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and

cryosphere (Carter et al., 1996). GCMs project simulations of climate processes using a

three-dimensional grid over the Earth. These simulations can respond to increases in

greenhouse gas concentrations, such as CO2, to reflect changes in the climate.

GCMs are commonly used for climate change scenarios because they are generally

consistent with the criteria for “climate impacts and adaptation research proposed by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) Task Group on data and Scenario

Support for Impact and Climate Assessment (IPCC-TGICA)” (Environment Canada,

21

“Constructing Scenarios”, 2007). GCMs may follow criteria listed in one of IPCC’s

assessment reports: Second assessment report (IS92a experiment), third assessment report

(TAR), or fourth assessment report (AR4) (Environment Canada, “Constructing

Scenarios”, 2007).

There are different types of climate change scenarios that concentrate on different

characteristics. A1 and B1 scenarios are more global and show “a more integrated

world”, while A2 and B2 scenarios are more regional and show “a more divided world”

(Carter et al., 1996). A1 scenarios emphasize rapid economic growth and human wealth,

A2 scenarios emphasize moderate economic growth and a higher population growth rate,

B1 scenarios emphasize a rapid change in economic structure and cleaner technologies,

and B2 scenarios emphasize sustainability and a more ecologically friendly world (Carter

et al., 1996; and Environment Canada, “Constructing Scenarios”, 2007).

Regional climate models

Climate change scenarios can also be produced using regional climate models. One of the

advantages of using regional models is that they project scenarios with a higher

resolution and at a finer scale. Regional scenarios may be more realistic because they can

forecast plausible representations of climate processes, such as evaporation, cloud

formation, storm formation, precipitation and soil moisture (UQAM, 2007). Regional

models, such as the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM), are built upon data "from

physically-based models", and certain weather extremes may be better represented using

these models (Environment Canada, “Constructing Scenarios”, 2007).

22

The disadvantage of using regional climate models is that they are nested only in one

direction to a GCM. Therefore, they depend on the GCM’s inputs and provide no

feedback to the GCM.

Using climate change models

For the study, climate change projections were generated for three time periods, 2011-

2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. This was done using two GCM AR42007 models,

CSIOMk3 and ECHAM5 OM, and one Canadian regional model, CRCM4.1.1. The

CSIROMk3 was created by Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organization (CSIRO), and the ECHAM5OM was created by the Max Planck

Institute fur Meterorologie. The CRCM was developed through the collaboration of

Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) and Canadian centre for climate modelling

and analysis (CCCma) (Environment Canada, “Constructing Scenarios”, 2007).

The climate model data were obtained from the Canadian climate change scenario

network (Environment Canada, “Constructing Scenarios”, 2007), and were chosen by

comparing their baseline projections (1961-1990) to the actual temperature averages of

Ouje-Bougoumou between 1963 and 1990. The models with the most similar results were

selected. Six scenarios, CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2, CSIOMk3 SR-A2, CSIOMk3 SR-B1,

ECHAM5 OM SR-A2, ECHAM5 OM SR-B1, and ECHAM5 OM SR-A1B, were then

used to forecast summer air temperature averages (June, July, August) for the three time

periods (refer to Table 2).

23

Research objective 3: To examine impacts of climate change on the study lakes.

Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau were examined to understand how climate

change would affect the water temperature of these lakes, and subsequently how these

changes would affect the spread of furunculosis in the fish population. To examine the

impacts of climate change, future water temperatures of the lakes were projected. In

assessing the current and future states of the lakes, lake dimensions and temperatures

were required. Lake dimensions were obtained from various sources as mentioned

previously. In terms of water temperature, there were no past or current records of water

temperatures for either lake, so potential water temperatures were produced using a

freshwater model called the Lake Model FLake (FLake) (Lake Model FLake, 2007).

FLake was also used to project future lake scenarios in response to climate change.

FLake and water temperature scenarios

FLake is a two-layer model that produces one-dimensional representations of a

freshwater lake. This model predicts the mixing conditions, vertical temperature

structure, and surface water temperatures of a lake at different time scales (Lake Model

FLake, 2007). The two layers in FLake represent the temperature profile of a lake. One

layer represents the temperature and depth of the mixed layer at a given time, and the

other layer represents the bottom temperature and structure of the stratified layer, i.e.

thermocline, at a given time (Kourzeneva and Braskavsky, 2004; and Lake Model FLake,

2007).

24

Incorporated into Flake are the parameters that formulate the temperature profile of a

lake, a formula to calculate the depth of the mixed layer using convective and non-

convective equations, a module that portrays the influence of the bottom sediment layer,

and a module that portrays snow-ice temperature profiles (Kourzeneva and Braskavsky,

2004). FLake also requires specific lake parameters to be inputted into the model so that

lake simulations reflect the individual lake. These parameters include depth, optical

parameters, fetch, and geographical coordinates of a lake (Lake Model FLake, 2007).

With such, the model can produce lake variables such as water temperature, friction

velocity pertaining to air and surface water, convective velocity, heat flux variables, short

wave and long wave radiation, mixed layer depth, stratification, ice thickness, snow

thickness, ice temperature and snow temperature (Lake Model FLake, 2007). However,

there is an online version of FLake that only outputs values for maximum surface water

temperature, minimum surface water temperature, and mean surface water temperature of

a lake (Lake Model FLake, 2007).

The online version of FLake uses meteorological datasets from the ‘Global Data

Assimilation System (GDAS) Archive’ “produced by the GDAS model output of

National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP)” (Lake Model FLake, 2007;

NCEP, 2004). The dataset used in FLake starts from November 2005 to November 2006,

and it “consists of 3-hourly, global, 1 degree latitude longitude” data (Lake Model FLake,

2007; NCEP, 2004). As an alternative, the user can also use an offline version of FLake,

which allows the user to refine the model by specifying the parameters of a particular

lake.

25

Using FLake model

Two methods were employed to produce climate change scenarios of Lac Obatogamau

and Lac Chibougamau. The first method utilized the online version of FLake, and the

second method utilized the offline version. Using the online version, transposition

scenarios were projected to forecast water temperatures for three different scenarios of

climate change: warm, moderately warm, and very warm. Using the offline version,

synthetic scenarios were created to forecast water temperatures for three future time

periods with respect to climate change: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.

Validating FLake

To validate the FLake model, past research projects and studies were examined to see

whether FLake had produced plausible results.

Transposition scenarios

Climate transposition is a method to impose meteorological parameters from one area to

another, so that there would be a change in response to the new set of climate conditions

(Mortsh and Quinn, 1996). This is typically done by using climate data from another

location where climate conditions are warmer, and either drier or wetter (Parry and

Carter, 1998). Thus, the purpose of a transposition scenario is to project changes to

climate means and variability, and to assess the responses of various systems to these

changes (Mortsh and Quinn, 1996).

26

Online version of FLake

Using the online version of FLake (website: http://www.flake.igb-berlin.de/), current

water temperatures were produced for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau. To

produce current temperatures of the lakes, geographical coordinates and lake depth were

inputted into FLake. To forecast future water temperatures of the lakes in response to

climate change, the transposition method was used. The lakes were transposed south by

1, 2 and 3 degrees, which were to represent three scenarios: warm, moderately warm, and

very warm, respectively. (Note: ‘Warm’ conditions represent conditions that are warmer

than the current climate conditions of Ouje-Bougoumou, and ‘moderately warm’

conditions represent conditions that are warmer than the ‘warm’ scenario, etc.)

FLake accepted latitudinal coordinates at values to the hundredths, but only accepted

whole integers for longitudinal coordinates. Therefore, the geographical coordinates,

49.6°N and 74°W, represented the current location of Lac Obatogamau, and the

geographical coordinates, 49.8°N and 74°W, represented the current location of Lac

Chibougamau.

Transposition A was selected to represent warm conditions, so Lac Obatogamau was

transposed to 48.6°N and 74°W, and Lac Chibougamau was transposed to 48.8°N and

74°W. Transposition B was selected to represent moderately warm conditions, thus Lac

Obatogamau was transposed to 47.6°N and 74°W, and Lac Chibougamau was transposed

to 47.8°N and 74°W. Transposition C was selected to represent very warm conditions,

27

thus Lac Obatogamau was transposed to 46.6°N and 74°W, and Lac Chibougamau was

transposed to 46.8°N and 74°W.

The output results from the online FLake model included a graph showing the fluctuation

in water temperatures over the year, and values for maximum surface water temperature,

minimum surface water temperature, mean surface water temperature, and the maximum

difference between surface water temperature and bottom water temperature.

Offline version of FLake

The offline version of FLake was used as the second method to forecast the current and

future water temperatures of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau. In order to

successfully run the offline FLake model, an external climate dataset and configuration

files containing lake parameters were required. The offline ‘Precompiled Windows

version’ (command line version) was downloaded off the FLake website, and the set-up

method created by Georgiy Kirillin was followed (Lake Model FLake, 2007).

The climate dataset that was inputted into FLake was sourced from Environment Canada

(Environment Canada, Climate data, 2005). The database needed to include the following

variables; windspeed, solar radiation, cloud opacity, air humidity, and air temperature.

Climate data of the Ouje-Bougoumou region between 1984 and 1991 were obtained, but

data from 1991 were omitted due to missing values.

28

Records of hourly wind speed, hourly cloud opacity, and hourly relative humidity were

taken from the ‘Chibougamau-Chapais A’ weather station. Records of daily mean

temperature were taken from the Chapais-2 weather station, and records of global solar

radiation were taken from the Normandin CDA weather station. Solar radiation data were

taken from Normandin CDA because it was the closest station to have such records. The

coordinates of Normadin CDA are latitude 48.83°N and longitude 72.55°W, which is

0.74 degree south and 2.01 degree east of Ouje-Bougoumou. It is acknowledged that

because this station is 0.74 degree south of Ouje-Bougoumou, solar radiation values may

not portray the precise amount of solar radiation that Ouje-Bougoumou received;

nonetheless, such data would portray a similar amount. All climate data were gathered

through Environment Canada’s climate archives, and the data units were converted to fit

the requirements of the offline version of FLake. In particular, relative humidity was

converted into air humidity using the equations shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Equation to convert relative humidity into absolute humidity (NCAR, 2004).

es(t) = 6.112mb exp(17.67*t/(243.5+t))

rh = ae/es

es = total saturation rh = relative humidity ae = absolute humidity (air humidity)

29

A name list configuration file containing the parameters of the lakes was required. The

initial temperature, fetch, thermal activity, geographical coordinates, and transparency of

the lake were needed in order to produce water temperatures specific to the lake. Other

variables required included the time length of the simulation period, time step, height of

measurement instrumentations, and input and output file names.

Information concerning measurement heights was not available, so a similar lake with

available data was used as a guideline. Out of three similar test lakes provided in the

offline version of FLake (2007), Lake Heiligensee was chosen because it was shallow

and dimictic, and it had a latitude of 51°N.

The offline version of Flake outputs a set of data pertaining to the lake. The output results

were daily data of various lake variables, including surface water temperature, mean

water temperature and bottom water temperature. The output variable, mean temperature,

represented the average temperature of the entire temperature profile of the lake. The

maximum surface water temperature, summer mean surface temperature, summer mean

temperature of the water column, and summer mean bottom temperature of Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau were calculated. Summer consisted of the months

between May and September, following the same principle that was used to calculate the

summer mean air temperature baseline of Ouje-Bougoumou. In addition, these months

were used because the completion of spring lake turnovers typically occurs right before

May, and the start of fall lake turnovers is typically after September. This was evident

when assessing the raw output data of surface water temperature of Lac Obatogamau and

30

Lac Chibougamau. Each year, the surface water temperature would begin to rise from

0oC at the start of May, and would decline to 0oC by the end of September. Between

October and April, the surface water temperature would remain at 0oC.

Synthetic scenarios

Creating synthetic scenarios is a technique to produce climate change scenarios by

adjusting values of a climate variable by a certain amount (Carter et al., 1996). Adjusting

the baseline temperature by chosen increments such as 1oC, 2oC etc., would represent

different magnitudes of future climate change. Using synthetic scenarios, future water

temperatures of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau were produced to represent the

lake responses to climate change.

Three synthetic scenarios were created for each lake using the offline FLake model. The

climate dataset used in FLake was the baseline for the temperature adjustments.

Temperature increments were chosen according to what the climate change models

projected for three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100

(Environment Canada, “Scenarios: Introduction”, 2007; IPCC, 2001). Thus, the synthetic

scenarios represented these three time periods.

31

Research objective 4: To examine the impacts of climate change on the fish species of

Ouje-Bougoumou, and to assess the impacts of climate change on the spread of

furunculosis found in the fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou.

The climate change scenarios produced by the climate models and FLake were analyzed

to determine the potential impacts to the spread of furunculosis in fish species of Ouje-

Bougoumou. Details on the fish species located in the study lakes were gathered from

academic and grey literature.

Research objective 5 and 6: To collect and collate indigenous knowledge from the Ouje-

Bougoumou traditional territory for greater understanding on the prevalence of diseased

fish; and to determine the potential impacts on the Aboriginal community of Ouje-

Bougoumou as a result of the spread of furunculosis resulting from climate change.

These two objectives required the collection of TEK data of both past and present

findings.

Methods for traditional ecological knowledge collection

Past TEK findings

TEK data were required in order to understand the unknown facts that western science

cannot and does not provide. Past TEK findings were obtained through grey literature,

many of which include voiced concerns from community members on the issue of

diseased fish appearing in nearby lakes. One of these sources included a documentary

film called “Albert’s Fish Part 1”, where elder Albert Mianscum shared his knowledge

and experiences in dealing with the diseased fish (“Albert’s Fish Part 1”, 2001). Elder

32

Mianscum, now passed away, was a significant person in the community because he

brought forth many issues that needed attention to the western society, including the issue

of diseased fish. Thus, the roots of this study are largely connected to the concerns that

elder Mianscum voiced to the public.

Current TEK findings – Interviews

The collection of current TEK data included visiting the community and administering a

personal interview. Questions focused on the geographical and temporal aspects of

furunculosis, and the significance of this issue to the participant and their community.

The list of questions can be found in Figure 4, Appendix I.

A semi-directed interview was administered orally and recorded. The participant that

was appointed by the Band office of the Ouje-Bougoumou community had collected

information pertaining to the study from other community members beforehand. A

significant part of the interview was conducted on Lac Obatogamau so that the expert

field guide could show the research team the significant parts of the lake, while revealing

the history of events that may have affected the aquatic ecosystem of the lake.

Ethics

The Office of Research Ethics at the University of Toronto has approved the human

research ethics for the study. Participation was completely voluntary, and verbal

informed consent was acknowledged prior to participation.

33

CHAPTER 5: Results

The results of the study are presented in accordance to the relevant research objective

which all relate to the study’s research questions, what are the implications of climate

change on the spread of furunculosis found in fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou, and how

will this impact the health of the community?

Research objective 1: To investigate whether a temporal and spatial pattern exists with

the appearance of furunculosis over the past few decades.

a. Temporal analysis

Temperature analysis

Historical climate data show that the air summer mean temperature of Ouje-Bougoumou

has been increasing (see Figure 5), with a p-value of 0.02. Figure 5 shows that during the

mid 1990s (1994-1995), approximately when the onset of furunculosis was first noticed,

the linear regression slope intercepts at 12.8 °C.

34

Figure 5. Mean air temperature for May to September of Ouje-Bougoumou (1963-2001).

Past TEK findings

As indicated in the literature review section of the study, elder Albert Mianscum started

noticing changes in the fish from Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau during the mid

1990s (“Albert’s Fish Part 1”, 1999; and Travers, 1999). In a documentary called

“Albert’s Fish Part 1”, the film shows elder Mianscum catching fish in Lac Obatogamau

using a traditional method. It was later revealed that the all fish he caught were diseased.

35

TEK: Interview with an expert community member (related to temporal analysis)

One interview was conducted and recorded on June 27th 2008, with a community member

of Ouje-Bougoumou. Before the interview, this person had collected information from

other community members pertaining to the disfigured fish in Lac Obatogamau. As a

result, the answers that he provided included information from what others had told him.

The interviewee and other community members believe that past mining activities are the

cause to these changes in the fish. The respondent indicated that there have been 32

mines in the Chibougamau region, one of which was located across Lac Obatogamau.

After 30 years, you can still see some of the mess they left behind. – Interviewee.

b. Spatial data

Maps

A bathymetry map of Lac Chibougamau, which also shows Lac aux Dores, is shown in

Figure 6. A bathymetry map of Lac Opemisca is shown in Figure 7, Appendix I.

36

Figure 6. Bathymetry map of Lac Chibougamau and Lac aux Dores (Trakmaps, Lac Chibougamau, 2008).

Lac Obatogamau: Dimensions

Lac Obatogamau has a length of 30.3 km, a width of 8.4 km, a perimeter of 278.42 km,

an altitude of 371 m, a surface area of 7616 ha, and a basin catchment area of 67 858 ha

(Morin, 2008).

37

Lac Obatogamau: Bathymetry data

Depth measurements were taken at Lac Obatogamau at ten different points. Table 1

summarizes the data measured at each point, which include the geographical coordinates,

water depth, surface temperature, and elevation. The surface water temperature of Lac

Obatogamau was 18°C on June 27th 2008, which meets the preferred temperature of

furunculosis. The average water depth of all the points is 9.45 m, with a standard

deviation of 6.4m. The maximum water depth is 24 m. For the FLake model scenarios,

the depth of 9.45 m was used to represent the mean depth of Lac Obatogamau.

Table 1. Bathymetry data of Lac Obatogamau.

Point # Coordinates Depth (m) Surface temperature (°C) Elevation (ft)

1 49°38.24’N 74°31.219’W 5 18 1196

2 49°37.479’N 74°31.420’W 10 18 1186

3 49°37.455’N 74°31.311’W 9 18 1191

4 49°37.444’N 74°31.197’W 2 18 1179

5 49°37.291’N 74°31.208’W 2 18 1191

6 49°37.300’N 74°31.423’W 12 18 1181

7 49°37.156’N 74°31.508’W 13 18 1170

8 49°36.587’N 74°30.754’W 24 18 1198

9 49°35.881’N 74°30.275’W 10 18 1200

10 49°35.502’N 74°37.577’W 7.5 19 1200

38

Lac Chibougamau: Dimensions

From 1964 to 1969, Lac Chibougamau had a mean depth of 13.14 m recorded by

Environment Canada (Environment Canada, Water Survey, 2008). For the FLake model

scenarios, the depth of 13.14m was used to represent the mean depth of Lac Obatogamau.

Other dimensions of the lake include a length of 30.3 km, a width of 8.4 km, a perimeter

of 278.42 km, an altitude of 371 m, a surface area of 7616 ha, and a basin catchment area

of 67 858 ha (Morin, 2008).

Dimensions of nearby lakes

From 1964 to 1971, Lac aux Dores had a mean water depth of 10.07 m (Environment

Canada, Water Survey, 2008). For Lac Opemisca, it was suggested that the mean water

depth is approximately 10m (Cooper, 2008). These values are similar to the mean depths

of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, which verify the validity of the bathymetric

results.

TEK: Interview with an expert field guide/community member (related to spatial

analysis)

As indicated, the community member was able to bring the research team to the locations

where disfigured fish have been caught at Lac Obatogamau. The respondent indicated

that disfigured fish have been found in Lac aux Dores and Lac Chibougamau as well.

39

Research objective 2: To project plausible climate change scenarios.

Climate change scenario graphs

Projections of future annual mean temperature forecasted by CSIOMk3 SR-A2,

CSIOMk3 SR-B1, ECHAM5 OM SR-A2, ECHAM5 OM SR-B1, and ECHAM5 OM

SR-A1B, using the coordinates, latitude 49.55 and longitude –74.49, are shown in Figure

8. Projections of future summer mean temperature from 2011 to 2100 by the same

models are shown in Figure 9. Graphs of CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2 projections are not shown

due to a lack of detail and data.

Figure 8. Forecast of annual mean temperatures from 2011 to 2100, using the coordinates, latitude 49.55 and longitude –74.49.

40

Figure 9. Forecast of summer mean temperatures from 2011 to 2100, using the coordinates, latitude 49.55 and longitude –74.49. .

Climate change projections

Climate change projections forecast a constant rise in mean air temperatures. Table 2

summarizes and compares the annual and summer baseline projections to the actual past

temperature averages of Ouje-Bougoumou. Table 3 presents the forecasted summer mean

temperatures between 2011 and 2100.

When comparing the summer average baseline projections (1963-1990) to the actual

summer mean temperature of Ouje-Bougoumou, the A1B model (ECHAM5 OM SR-

A1B) had the closest summer average baseline projection to the actual past summer mean

temperature value, with a temperature difference of 0.1°C. The A2 models had a

temperature difference of 0.6°C, and the B1 models had a temperature difference of

1.0°C from the actual summer mean temperature of Ouje-Bougoumou.

41

Out of the three types of scenarios, the A1B scenario projected the greatest increase in

summer mean temperatures for each time period, and the B1 scenarios projected the

modest increase in summer mean temperatures for each time period. The A1B scenario

projected a summer mean temperature increase of 1.6°C by 2040, 2.9°C by 2070, and

4.4°C by 2100. The A2 scenarios projected on average, a summer mean temperature

increase of 1.2°C by 2040, 2.3°C by 2070, and 3.7°C by 2100. And the B1 scenarios

projected on average, a summer mean temperature increase of 0.4°C by 2040, 1.6°C by

2070, and 2.7°C by 2100. The Canadian regional model, CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2, produced

scenarios at a much higher resolution than the GCMs. However, there were insufficient

available data to produce scenarios for the time periods between 2011-2040 and 2071-

2100. The CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2 was expected to produce the most applicable and effective

results due to its resolution, but in fact this model was the least successful model for the

study.

Table 2. Comparing annual and summer baseline projections to actual annual and summer temperature averages (°C) of Ouje-Bougoumou (1963-1990).

Model

Annual avg. baseline

(1961-1990)

Difference from actual annual

average (1963-1990): 0.03°C

Summer avg. baseline

(1961-1990)

Difference from actual summer average (1963-

1990): 12.18°C

ECHAM5 OM SR-A1B -0.11 -0.14 12.31 0.13

CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2* -1.30 -1.33 11.85 -0.33 CSIOMk3 SR-A2 0.18 0.15 14.05 1.87

ECHAM5 OM SR-A2 -0.11 -0.14 12.31 0.13 Average (A2 models) -0.41 -0.44 12.74 0.56

CSIOMk3 SR-B1 0.18 0.15 14.05 1.87

ECHAM5 OM SR-B1 -0.11 -0.14 12.31 0.13 Average (B1 models) 0.04 0.004 13.18 0.997

42

Table 3. Comparing climate change projections to the projected summer baseline averages (°C).

Model

Summer avg. baseline

(1961-1990)

2011-2040

Difference from

summer avg.

baseline

2041-2070

Difference from

summer avg.

baseline

2071-2100

Difference from

summer avg.

baseline

ECHAM5 OM SR-A1B 12.31 13.87 1.56 15.23 2.92 16.71 4.4

CRCM4.1.1

SR-A2* 11.85 -- -- 14.88 3.03 -- --

CSIOMk3 SR-A2 14.05 14.44 0.39 15.36 1.31 16.7 2.65

ECHAM5 OM SR-A2 12.31 13.5 1.19 14.81 2.5 16.1 3.8

Average (A2 models) 12.74 13.96 1.22 15.01 2.28 16.4 3.66

CSIOMk3 SR-

B1 14.05 13.37 -0.68 14.23 0.18 14.97 0.93

ECHAM5 OM SR-B1 12.31 13.87 1.56 15.23 2.92 16.71 4.4

Average (B1 models) 13.18 13.62 0.44 14.73 1.55 15.84 2.66

*There were insufficient data for CRCM4.1.1 SR-A2 to produce projections for the time periods of 2011-2040 and 2071-2100.

Research objective 3: To examine the impacts of climate change on the study lakes

Validation of FLake model

The German science foundation (DFG) funded a research project to test the reliability of

the FLake model (Lake Model FLake, 2007). Test runs were created for three lakes -the

Heiligensee Lake, the Mueggelsee Lake and the Stechlinsee Lake, all of which were

located in the same climatic zone in Germany (Lake Model FLake, 2007). The purpose of

43

the test runs was to show whether FLake could produce accurate results pertaining to

each lake individually, even if they all had the same climatic parameters. Results showed

that Flake had simulated different temperature and mixing conditions for each lake,

which were primarily influenced by the different morphologies of the lakes (Lake Model

FLake, 2007). These projections prove that FLake is capable of producing reliable

simulations of the temperature and mixing regime of different lakes.

Online FLake model results: Lake temperature transposition scenarios

The current maximum surface water temperature for Lac Obatogamau is 25°C, which

would typically occur on July 16. For Lac Chibougamau, the current maximum surface

water temperature is 24.5°C, which would typically occur on August 2. These scenarios

are illustrated in Figure 10 and 11, respectively. The predicted change in maximum

surface water temperature from current climate conditions to warm, moderately warm,

and very warm climate conditions for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau are

summarized in Table 4 and Table 5, respectively.

Lac Obatogamau is projected to have a greater increase in maximum surface water

temperature than Lac Chibougamau for each transposition scenario. For Lac

Obatogamau, comparing the transposition scenarios to the current scenario, the warm

scenario (transposition A) projected an increase of 1.1°C, the moderately warm scenario

(transposition B) projected an increase of 2°C, and the very warm scenario (transposition

C) projected an increase of 3°C. For Lac Chibougamau, comparing the transposition

scenarios to the current scenario, the warm scenario (transposition A) projected an

44

increase of 1.1°C, the moderately warm scenario (transposition B) projected an increase

of 1.4°C, and the very warm scenario (transposition C) projected an increase of 2.7°C.

Summaries of the projected minimum surface water temperature, maximum surface water

temperature, mean surface water temperature, maximum difference between surface and

bottom water temperature, and bottom water temperature of each transposition scenario

for Lac Obatogamou and Lac Chibougamau are shown in Table 6 and Table 7,

respectively.

Figure 10. Current maximum surface and bottom water temperatures of Lac Obatogamau produced with FLake.

45

Figure 11. Current maximum surface and bottom water temperature of Lac Chibougamau produced with FLake. Table 4. Maximum surface water temperature of Lac Obatogamou.

Table 5. Maximum surface water temperature of Lac Chibougamau.

Maximum surface temperature for Lac Obatogamau

Time period Value Date Change in

Temperature (from current baseline)

Current 25.00°C Jul 16 -- Transposition A: Warm 26.13°C Aug 2 1.13°C Transposition B: Moderately warm 26.98°C Aug 2 1.98°C Transposition C: Very warm 27.95°C Aug 2 2.95°C

Maximum surface temperature for Lac Chibougamau

Time period Value Date

Change in Temperature (from

current baseline)

Current 24.46°C Jul 16 -- Transposition A: Warm 25.55°C Aug 2 1.09°C Transposition B: Moderately warm 25.84°C Aug 2 1.38°C Transposition C: Very warm 27.11°C Aug 2 2.65°C

46

Current time: Lac Obatogamau Variable Value Date Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 25 Jul 16 Mean surface temperature 8.2 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 21 Jul 16 Bottom temperature 4

Transposition A: warm

Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 26.1 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 8.7 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 22.2 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 4 Transposition B: Moderately warm Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 26.98 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 8.6 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 22.6 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 4.2 Transposition C: Very warm Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 27.95 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 9.6 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 21.4 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 6.6

47

Table 7. Lac Chibougamau water temperature (°C) transposition scenarios.

Current time: Lac Chibougamau Variable Value Date Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 24.5 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 8.2 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 20.5 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 4 Transposition A: Warm Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 25.6 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 8.6 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 20.4 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 5.1 Transposition B: Moderately warm Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 25.8 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 8.6 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 21.9 Aug 2 Bottom temperature 4 Transposition C: Very warm Minimum surface temperature 0 Jan 1 Maximum surface temperature 27.1 Aug 2 Mean surface temperature 9.5 Maximum difference between surface and bottom temperatures 21.3 Jul 18 Bottom temperature 5.8

Offline FLake model results: Synthetic scenarios

The synthetic scenarios were created based on the climate change projections formulated

by the climate models. The climate change projections produced by the A2 scenarios

were chosen as the guideline in formulating the incremental values. The A2 scenarios

were chosen as opposed to the B1 scenarios and the A1B scenarios because the A2

48

scenarios projected values of increased summer mean air temperature that were in the

median of the values projected by the other two scenarios for each time period: 2011-

2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. As indicated earlier, the A2 scenarios projected on

average, a summer mean temperature increase of 1.2°C by 2040, 2.3°C by 2070, and

3.7°C by 2100. Thus, air temperature values in the offline FLake external climate dataset

were increased for the three time periods. For the time period between 2011-2040, air

temperature values were increased by 1.2°C; between 2041-2070, air temperature values

increased by 2.3°C; and between 2071-2100, air temperature values increased by 3.7°C.

Configuration files

The name-list files, for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, used in FLake are

presented in Table 8 and Table 9 in Appendix I.

Output results

Throughout 2011 to 2100, the offline FLake scenarios indicate that Lac Obatogamau will

be warmer than Lac Chibougamau in maximum surface water temperature, summer

bottom water temperature and summer mean water temperature. Also, Lac Obatogamau

is projected to be warmer than Lac Chibougamau in summer mean surface water

temperature from 2011 to 2040, and 2071 to 2100; but between 2041 and 2071, Lac

Chibougamau is predicted to have a warmer summer mean surface water temperature of

16.6°C, while Lac Obatogamau is predicted to have a summer mean surface water

temperature of 15.9°C. The offline FLake scenario results of maximum surface water

temperature and summer mean surface water temperature for Lac Obatogamau and Lac

49

Chibougamau are summarized in Table 10. Results for summer mean bottom water

temperature and summer mean water temperature for the two lakes are summarized in

Table 11.

Table 10. Maximum and Summer mean surface water temperatures (°C ) of offline FLake scenarios

Lac Obatogamau (offline)

Max. surface temperature

Increase in max. surface

temperature from current time

Summer mean surface temperature

(May – Sept)

(Increase in mean surface temperature from current

time)

Current (1983-1991) 22.87 - 15.2 -

2011-2040 23.5 0.63 15.87 0.67 2041-2070 23.88 1.01 17.47 1.27 2071-2100 24.52 1.65 18.4 2.2

Lac Chibougamau (offline)

Max. surface temperature

(Increase in max. surface

temperature from current time)

Summer mean surface temperature

(May – Sept)

(Increase in mean surface temperature from current

time)

Current (1983-1991) 22.59 - 15.05 -

2011-2040 23.12 0.53 16.58 1.53 2041-2070 23.81 1.22 17.3 2.25 2071-2100 24.5 1.91 18.1 3.05

50

Table 11. Summer mean water temperature and bottom mean water temperature (°C ) of offline FLake scenarios.

Lac Obatogamau (offline)

Summer mean

bottom temperature

Summer mean temperature

(May – Sept)

Increase in summer mean temp. from current time

Current (1983-1991) 14.04 15.5 - 2011-2040 14.19 15.87 0.37 2041-2070 15.05 16.43 0.93 2071-2100 15.8 17.4 2.05

Lac Chibougamau (offline)

Summer mean

bottom temperature

Summer mean temperature

(May – Sept)

Increase in summer mean temp. from current time

Current (1983-1991) 9.37 15.01 - 2011-2040 10.31 15.04 0.03 2041-2070 11.3 15.6 0.59 2071-2100 11.5 16.5 1.49

Summary of climate change projections

For the Ouje-Bougoumou region, the A2 models project a current summer mean air

temperature of 12.74°C. For Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, the offline FLake

model projects current summer mean water temperatures of 15.5°C and 15.01°C,

respectively. The offline FLake model projects current maximum surface water

temperatures of 22.87°C and 22.59°C, for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau

respectively; while the online FLake model projects maximum surface water

temperatures of 25°C and 24.46°C, for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau

respectively.

51

For the Ouje-Bougoumou region, the A2 climate change scenarios project future summer

mean air temperatures of 14°C for 2011-2040, 15°C for 2041-2070, and 16.4°C for 2071-

2100. For Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau respectively, the offline FLake model

projects summer mean water temperatures of 15.9°C and 15°C for 2011-2040, 16.4°C

and 15.6°C for 2041-2070, and 17.4°C and 16.5°C for 2071-2100. Table 12 summarizes

the climate change projections of summer mean air temperature and summer mean water

temperature produced by the A2 scenarios and the offline FLake model.

In terms of maximum surface water temperatures for Lac Obatogamau and Lac

Chibougamau respectively, the offline FLake models projects temperature values of

23.5°C and 23.1°C for 2011-2040, 23.9°C and 23.8°C for 2041-2070, and 24.52°C and

24.5°C for 2071-2100. In addition, in a scenario where climate conditions are warm for

Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, the online FLake model projects maximum

surface water temperature values of the lakes to be 26.1°C and 25.6°C respectively. If

climate conditions of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau were to be moderately

warm, the online FLake model projects maximum surface water temperature values to be

26.98°C and 25.8°C respectively. And if climate conditions of Lac Obatogamau and Lac

Chibougamau were to be very warm, the online FLake model projects maximum surface

water temperature values to be 27.95°C and 27.1°C respectively.

52

Table 12. Summary of climate change projections of summer mean air and surface water temperature (°C ) for A2 scenarios and offline FLake scenarios.

Change in summer mean temperature Time period Current 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 A2 model 12.74 13.96 15.02 16.4 Difference from baseline 1.2 2.3 3.7

Lac Obatogamau

offline 15.5 15.87 16.43 17.4

Difference from current time 0.37 0.93 2.05

Lac Chibougamau offline 15.01 15.04 15.6 16.5

Difference from current time 0.03 1.59 1.49 Research objective 4. To examine the impacts of climate change on the fish species of

Ouje-Bougoumou, and to assess the impacts of climate change on the spread of

furunculosis found in the fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou.

The fish species of the Ouje-Bougoumou region include walleye, lake trout, river

redhorse, white sucker, brook trout, lake whitefish, northern pike, and burbot (MNRF,

2007; and Tsuji et al., 2007). However, it is unknown whether all these species can be

found in Lac Obatogamou and Lac Chibougamau. It has only been confirmed that the

walleye and sucker can be found in Lac Obatogamou, as they were the two species that

tested positive for furunculosis (Penn, 2000). Information on each species is provided in

Table 13. The temperature ranges listed in Table 13 are not indicative of the minimum or

maximum lethal temperature limit unless suggested; rather, these are the temperature

ranges that would allow for optimal growth of the fish. Therefore, these fish species still

survive the winter season when lake temperatures drop to a minimum of 4°C

(Department of Natural Resources, 2007; Eli, 2007; MDC, 2008; Petrosky and

Magnuson, 1973; and Ranta, 2004).

53

Table 13. Information on the fish species located in Ouje Bougoumou.

Common Name

Family, Order, Class Environment Depth

Range Climate Temp. Range Species at Risk References

Walleye Percidae,

Perciformes ,Actinopterygii

Demersal; potamodromous;

freshwater; brackish

Up to 27 m Temperate; 55°N - 35°N 0-29°C None

(Eli, 2007; and Stickney,

1992)

Lake trout Salmonidae,

Salmoniformes, Actinopterygii

Benthopelagic; non-migratory;

freshwater 18-53m Temperate;

65°N - 43°S

6–13°C Can survive in winter

season. None

(Eli, 2007; Ranta, 2004; and Snucins and Gunn,

1995)

River redhorse

Catostomidae, Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; freshwater

Prefers shallow,

exact depth range

unknown

Temperate; 47°N - 31°N

10-24°C. Juvenile deformity: +25 °C

Thermal maxima: 35-37°C

Can survive in winter season.

Special concern. Threats:

pollution, siltation, natural dams, man-made

dams, habitat degradation

(COSEWIC, 2006; Eli, 2007; and

MDC, 2008)

White sucker Catostomidae, Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; catadromous;

freshwater

Exact depth unknown

Temperate; 68°N - 34°N 0 – 29°C None (Eli, 2007)

Brook trout Salmonidae,

Salmoniformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; anadromous; freshwater;

brackish; marine

15 – 27 m Temperate;

65°N - 30°N, 95°W - 52°W

0 – 25°C None (Eli, 2007)

Lake whitefish

Salmonidae, Salmoniformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; anadromous; freshwater;

brackish; marine

18 – 128 m Temperate; 71°N - 40°N

11.9-17.0º C.

Can survive in winter season.

None

(Department of Natural Resources, 2007; Eli,

2007; Lasenby et al.,

2001)

Northern pike Esocidae,

Esociformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; potamodromous;

freshwater; brackish

0-30m

Temperate; 74°N - 36°N,

167°W - 180°E

10 – 28°C Can survive in waters

2.5°C None

(Eli, 2007; and Petrosky

and Magnuson,

1973)

Burbot Lotidae,

Gadiformes, Actinopterygii

Demersal; potamodromous;

freshwater; brackish

1-700m

Temperate; 78°N - 40°N,

180°W - 180°E

4 – 18°C None (Eli, 2007)

54

Research objective 5 and 6: To collect and collate indigenous knowledge from the Ouje-

Bougoumou traditional territory for greater understanding on prevalence of diseased fish,

and to determine the potential impacts on the Aboriginal community of Ouje-Bougoumou

as a result of the spread of furunculosis resulting from climate change.

Past TEK findings

In the documentary, “Albert’s Fish Part 1”, Albert Mianscum indicated that he has seen

an increase in the number of diseased fish found in the lakes. The elder showed that all

the fish he caught during the time of filming were affected by sores and lesions. Elder

Mianscum expressed his concern about the prevalence of this disease because fish was a

main food source for him and his family (“Albert’s Fish Part 1”, 1999; and Travers,

1999).

TEK: Interview with an expert field guide/ community member

The community member described the physical changes of the fish. The diseased fish

would have bulging eyes, red sores, and abnormal sizes for certain parts of the fish.

You got to see the fish, how ugly they look. Their eyes are popping out. Red, red eyeballs. -Interviewee.

The interviewee also said that community members like eating fish, but when the fish are

caught disfigured, they can only be discarded.

They like eating fish. I know that. My friends from Chibougamau will ask me, did you go fishing? Can I have a few? – Interviewee.

55

During the time spent on Lac Obatogamau, there were various times when fish were seen

splashing around. The interviewee indicated that these fish were most likely walleyes.

CHAPTER 6: Discussion

It is plausible that climate change has had an influence on the spread of the furunculosis.

The results of the study show that signs of climate change in Ouje-Bougoumou are

evident, and that furunculosis has been perpetually occurring. This chapter discusses the

significance of the results.

Research objective 1. To investigate whether a spatial and temporal pattern exists with

the appearance of furunculosis over the past few decades.

Timeline of temperature and incidences of furunculosis

A temporal pattern has been shown between the rise in mean air temperatures and the

onset of the disease. This pattern was found by examining past climate data, climate

change projections, water temperatures and the nature of the disease. The ideal water

temperature for furunculosis to occur is 17°C, with a range between 12.8 and 21.1°C.

Correlating FLake projections to climate change projections (A2 scenarios), when the

summer mean air temperature of Ouje-Bougoumou is 12.74°C, water temperatures of Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau would reach a summer mean water temperature of

15.5°C and 15.01°C, respectively (Table 10). Also, referring to Figure 2 –a graph of the

past summer mean air temperatures of Ouje-Bougoumou, the graph shows that the

56

summer mean air temperature reached 12.75°C in the mid-1990s as indicated by the

linear regression curve. This would mean that summer mean water temperatures of Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau would have been at least 15°C at that time. Thus,

water temperatures of these lakes around the mid-1990s would have been optimal for the

presence of this bacterium. This time period is significant because it was approximately

the time when Elder Albert Mianscum first started noticing the changes in the fish

appearances. This suggests a relation between the prevalence of the disease and warmer

temperatures, i.e. climate change. Presently, the temperature of Lac Obatogamau is still

suitable for the presence of furunculosis, as the surface temperature was measured at

18°C on June 27th 2008. The surface temperature was not measured for Lac

Chibougamau, but results are expected to be similar.

Research objectives 2, 3 and 4: To project plausible climate change scenarios, and to

examine the impacts of climate change on the study lakes, to the fish species of Ouje-

Bougoumou, and to the spread of furunculosis in fish species.

Climate change scenarios between 2011 and 2100

From 2011 to 2100, the offline FLake scenarios predicted that the summer mean water

temperature for Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau would rise from 15.5°C and

15.01°C to 17.4°C and 16.5°C, respectively. These temperature ranges are within the

optimal range for the occurrence of furunculosis, which strongly indicates that the

preferred thermal conditions for the disease will remain present in the lakes throughout

the 21st century. The summer mean bottom temperatures for Lac Obatogamau met the

minimum preferred temperature of furunculosis (12.8°C) for each predicted time period.

57

Since the entire thermocline of Lac Obatogamau met the optimal temperature range of

furunculosis, this suggests that at any depth, fish may be infected with A. salmonicida.

For Lac Chibougamau however, the summer mean bottom temperatures do not meet the

optimal temperature range at any point in time by 2100. Thus, unlike Lac Obatogamau,

fish in the deeper parts of Lac Chibougamau may be less susceptible to the disease.

The maximum surface water temperatures are much higher than summer mean water

temperatures of the lakes. Results show that maximum surface water temperatures of Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau will increase approximately by 2°C by 2100: from

22.9°C and 22.6°C to 24.52°C and 24.5°C, respectively. From a different perspective

using transposition scenarios, if climate conditions of Lac Obatogamau and Lac

Chibougamau went from warm to very warm, maximum surface water temperatures

would increase from 26.1°C and 25.6°C to 27.95°C and 27.1°C, respectively. All the

temperature values that represent maximum surface water temperature exceed the highest

ideal temperature point for the infection of A. salmonicida to most fish species of Ouje-

Bougoumou. It also exceeds the highest ideal temperature point for some of the fish

species themselves. This suggests that the fish will then be likely located away from the

surface waters of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, and that A. salmonicida may

actually have a broader preferred temperature range than originally believed.

Climate change and fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou

Climate change scenarios indicate that water temperatures will rise as a result of climate

change. As indicated by Perry et al. (2004), an increase in water temperatures above

19°C may increase the stress response of some fish species. To define a stress response,

58

when a fish is found in a threatening situation, they respond by temporarily adjusting

their metabolism to a catabolic state, and altering their respiratory and cardiovascular

system in hopes to successfully overcome the danger (Schachte, 2002). Situations such as

pollution and poor habitat conditions have lead to chronic stress in fish (Schachte, 2002).

If a fish is continually stressed, their ability to adapt to threatening situations may be

compromised, inflicting greater damage to the health of the fish -including the ability to

defend against disease (Schachte, 2002). The continual rise in air and water temperatures

by 2100 may cause continual stress to the fish population, putting their health at greater

risk of disease.

Much warmer water temperatures may induce greater stress upon some fish (Reist,

Dempson et al., 2006), which may potentially allow for more serious cases of a disease to

occur (Schachte, 2002). Currently, most incidences of furunculosis in Ouje-Bougoumou

are chronic, but under the influence of climate change, it is suggested that acute cases

may begin to occur more frequently. Acute cases are fatal if left untreated (Schachte,

2002), and unfortunately, vaccines are not intended for wild fish species.

Though climate change affects the entire fish population, the impacts differ on various

types of fish species in Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau. This study uses a

theoretical approach with an assumption that all the aforementioned species exist in both

lakes (Table 13). As temperatures continue to rise, furunculosis will continue to afflict

more fish. In particular, lake trout, river redhorse, walleye, and sucker may be more

vulnerable to furunculosis.

59

Lake trout

The lake trout fish species may be at a greater risk of contracting furunculosis because of

its limited environmental conditions. As shown in Table 13, the lake trout is non-

migratory and its ideal habitat temperature range is only from 6°C to 13°C (Eli, 2007).

This low temperature range can easily be exceeded more frequently as climate change

occurs, causing more stress on the fish. Also, because this species is non-migratory, the

lake trout may not be inclined to relocate to cooler regions. The combination of rising

water temperatures and a limited habitat range will put the lake trout population at a

greater risk of furunculosis, or even worse, to complete eradication.

River redhorse

The river redhorse may be at greater risk to extirpation when affected by furunculosis

because it is already listed as a species of special concern in Canada, typically found in

Ontario and Quebec (COSEWIC, 2006). Threats to the river redhorse species include

pollution, siltation, natural and man-made dams that affect water flow, and habitat

degradation (Table 13; COSEWIC, 2006). Thus, pollution and waste from past mining

activities may affect the health of the fish, making it more susceptible to disease.

Unfortunately, plans to recover the species or protect it from greater risks are limited due

to a lack of knowledge in population size, distribution, factors that affect its abundance

and distribution, and the ecology of the species (Reid et al., 2008).

60

Walleye and sucker

The ideal habitat temperature range for the walleye and sucker fish species is up to 29 °C

(Eli, 2007). This indicates that even if climate conditions become very warm, where

maximum surface water temperatures may increase to 27.95°C and 27.11°C respectively,

these two species could still remain at the surface waters of Lac Obatogamau and Lac

Chibougamau. The walleye and sucker have the broadest habitat temperature ranges, yet

they were the ones that tested positive for furunculosis. This indicates that these two

types of fish may be physiologically weaker and more susceptible to disease regardless of

their higher tolerance to warmer temperatures. In addition, other walleyes and suckers

may be more susceptible to the disease since they are more likely to be in the same

regions with their own kind –including those infected with furunculosis. During the TEK

interview, the respondent suggested that walleyes were still present at Lac Obatogamau.

This indicates that the walleye population is still surviving despite the disease. Even

though this fish was identified as one of the types infected with furunculosis, the disease

has not eradicated the whole population. This suggests that the diseased walleyes may not

necessarily be infected with serious cases of furunculosis, or that there may be a large

walleye population in the lakes.

Furunculosis temperature range

An important aspect to the study is the temperature range of furunculosis. It has been

suggested that A. salmonicida has a broader preferred temperature range than 12.8 to

21.1°C (Schachte, 2002). Since the bacterium is affecting walleye and sucker fish, whose

temperature range can be up to 29°C (Eli, 2007), the bacterium’s preferred temperature

61

may be significantly above 21.1 °C. Furthermore, the temperature tolerance zone and

survival rate of A. salmonicida may be primarily dictated by the survival of its carriers.

Thus, despite water temperatures, the bacterium may still survive as long as its host is

alive.

Fish located in different depths of the lakes

Along with temperature preferences, fish species may also prefer different depth

locations in Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau. This has a significant influence on

whether a particular fish species is at a greater risk of infection. If the infected walleye

and sucker species remain close to the surface, only those in close proximity to the

diseased fish will be at a greater risk to contracting the disease.

A theoretical situation is described to show how different species may be at a greater risk

of infection due to their depth location in the lakes. When a lake reaches its maximum

surface water temperature, there is a clear thermocline in the waterbody (Heidorn, 2003).

For example, if Lac Obatogamau had an equally stratified thermocline, and all seven fish

species are located at the depth of their temperature range, fish closer to the surface will

be more susceptible to furunculosis than those away from the surface. Refer to Figure 12

for a theoretical scenario of where fish species would be located in the depths of Lac

Obatogamau in current time, and refer to Figure 13 for a theoretical scenario of where

fish species would be located in Lac Obatogamau if climate conditions were very warm.

The bottom temperatures are calculated using the ‘maximum difference between surface

and bottom temperature’ values derived from the online version of FLake, and the surface

62

water temperatures are based on the maximum surface water temperatures of Lac

Obatogamau also derived from the online version of FLake.

As shown in Table 13, walleyes can survive in lakes with water temperatures ranging

from 0°C to 29°C, lake trout can survive in water temperatures from 6°C to 13°C, river

redhorse can survive in water temperatures from 10 to 24°C, white suckers can survive in

water temperatures from 0°C to 29°C, lake whitefish can survive in water temperatures

from 11.9°C to 17°C, pikes can survive in water temperatures from 10°C to 28°C, and

burbots can survive in water temperatures from 4°C to 18°C. With this information, if

fish species were located in water depths reflecting their optimal temperature range, then

the species, walleye, white sucker, brook trout, river redhorse, and northern pike, would

be at a higher risk of contracting the disease from the diseased fish (i.e. infected walleyes

and white suckers). As shown in Figure 12, the lake surface is more crowded with

various species. Fish in highly populated areas are more prone to stress and transmission

of disease, which means that these five species are at a greater risk to furunculosis

(Schachte, 2002).

The lake trout is furthest away from the surface, and so even though this species has

greater habitat limitations, its need for cooler waters actually separates the fish from the

infected zone. If climate conditions become very warm, the rise in temperatures may

cause the lake trout, burbot, and lake whitefish to move even deeper in the waters, and

thus further away from the fish infected with furunculosis. On another note, since the

walleye and sucker have an ideal habitat temperature that ranges from 0°C to 29°C,

63

diseased fish can still migrate into the deeps areas of a lake and infect other species.

Ultimately, once a fish is afflicted with furunculosis, the rest of the fish population in the

same lake will be at risk to disease.

Figure 12. Theoretical current location of fish species in Lac Obatogamou.

25°C 20.8°C 16.6°C 12.4°C 8.2°C 3.99°C

Depth =9.45m

walleye, white sucker, brook trout, river redhorse, northern pike

Lake trout

Lake whitefish

Burbot

64

Figure 13. Theoretical location of fish species in Lake Obatogamou in very warm climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on fish species

The climate change scenarios show that water temperature averages will rise, and this

will have many impacts on the fish population itself. The effects of climate change will

alter the oxygen levels of the lakes, and the changes in seasonal time length will affect

the nature of the fish.

Changes in seasonal time length

Seasonal time length changes may affect the development of fish (Bowden et al., 2007).

Because of climate change, warmer temperatures will extend the time length of spring-

27.95°C 23.67°C 19.39°C 15.11°C 10.83°C 6.55°C

Walleye, white sucker, northern pike

Lake whitefish

Burbot

River Redhorse, Brook trout

Lake trout

Depth = 9.45 m

65

summer seasons in Ouje-Bougoumou. This allows spawning to occur earlier in the

season, and a longer growing season will allow for higher growth rates and survival rates

among the fish population (Bowden et al., 2007). But a longer growing season will also

permit outbreaks of furunculosis to occur earlier in the year, possibly putting younger fish

at a greater risk to disease.

A “longer ice free season” will increase the time that the lakes are stratified, which may

lead to lower concentrations of oxygen in the hypolimnion of the lake (Rouse, et al.,

1997). Lower oxygen levels can increase greater stress to fish, particularly to coldwater

fish species (Rouse, et al., 1997). Low concentrations of oxygen also restrict how deep a

fish can swim in a lake, which limit the ability of fish to cope with the changes in water

temperature.

Changes in dissolved oxygen levels of a lake

As indicated, the amount of dissolved oxygen in a lake can restrict fish from going deeper

in the lake. The concentration of dissolved oxygen is pertinent to the survival of fish.

There are higher concentrations of dissolved oxygen at the surface of the waters because

of incoming light; hence, more photosynthesis. Therefore, at the hypolimnion of a lake,

i.e. the bottom of the lake, there are low concentrations of dissolved oxygen (WOW,

2004). However, when the water surface becomes too warm, the capacity for oxygen also

declines (WOW, 2004). The oxygen level in a lake restricts where most fish species can

swim. With increasing water temperatures, fish may soon find themselves within a

restricted habitable area; a place where it is cool enough, but still with enough dissolved

66

oxygen. If climate conditions become very warm, this can be deadly to the entire fish

population of the lakes. Particularly for the lake trout, since it has a lower ideal habitat

temperature range, it would be inclined to move to cooler, deeper locations in a lake. But

if there is a lack of dissolved oxygen in the lower parts of the basin, the fate of this

species may be fatal.

This unfortunate situation can be applicable to the fish species in Lac Obatogamau and

Lac Chibougamau. The rise in temperatures may cause stress to some of the fish, making

them less resistant to furunculosis (Schachte, 2002). If furunculosis does not kill or

seriously injure the fish, then potentially either the rise in water temperatures or the lack

of dissolved oxygen will. A combination of all three factors, furunculosis, high

temperatures, and lack of dissolved oxygen, may be deleterious to the entire fish

population of the lakes.

Research objective 5: To collect and collate indigenous knowledge from the Ouje-

Bougoumou traditional territory for greater understanding on the prevalence of diseased

fish.

TEK analysis

The information provided by the community is highly valuable for the study since it

reveals firsthand experiences in dealing with the disfigured fish. The interviewee was

able to describe the changes of the fish, which included red, bulging eyes. Such

description can be attributed to furunculosis, but the respondent could not confirm

whether furunculosis was the disease that affected the fish.

67

Ouje-Bougoumou community members have strong thoughts about nearby mining

activities. After interviewing the community member, it cannot be ignored that past

mining activities has had a significant impact on the environment of the community. It is

hard to dispute the certainty that mining contaminants may have caused many

repercussions to the environment, including some of the physical changes to the fish.

With such knowledge, mining activities are suggested to be a significant contributor to

the stress that may have led to the prevalence of furunculosis. The significance of past

mining activities is discussed in further detail.

The significance of past mining activities

There has been speculation that the prevalence of furunculosis was caused by local

mining activities in the past. However, there is no direct causal relationship between A.

salmonicida and mining activities (Bermoth et al., 1997); this is not to say that mining

activities did not have an impact on the fish species. Due to past incidences where mine

tailings had accidentally fallen into nearby streams, many local community members

were concerned that connecting waterbodies had been contaminated (Penn, 2000). This

led to the belief that the mining caused the disease. But, as Penn, a Cree regional

authority, says, “it is fair to say that [there] is no firm evidence that effectively links

furunculosis to mining”. Nevertheless, there is the argument from the community that

past mining activities led to a significant negative impact on the health of the fish in Lac

Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau, making them more susceptible to contracting a

disease.

68

Another reason why mining may not have been the sole factor that led to the onset of

furunculosis is that this disease has been found in other non-mining regions of Canada. In

Lake Ontario, there have been cases of furunculosis found in sea lampreys (Mannien,

2008). Sea lampreys are predaceous in the Great Lake region, where these eel-like

creatures attack other fish species by attaching onto them (Mannien, 2008). In the Great

Lakes region, infected sea lampreys can easily transmit the disease when they attach

themselves to their prey. This example shows that furunculosis can occur in a lake

regardless of whether there have been past mining activities.

While mining may not have been the sole factor to the onset of furunculosis, it could still

have been one of the prominent stress factors prior to the warming of water temperatures.

As previously mentioned, leaching from nearby mines may have entered the water

system, decreasing the state of health of the fish. Schachte (2002) has found that fish

exposed to metal pollutants have a suppressed defence mechanism. Thus, metal

contaminants from past mining activities may have debilitated the health of some fish and

their defence mechanisms. With a poorer state of health, the infected fish may have been

more susceptible to disease, and with the rise in water temperatures, the surroundings

may have become optimal for an active outbreak of furunculosis (Perry et al., 2004; and

Schachte, 2002). It is suggested that a combination of environmental stress factors; such

as mining contaminants and warmer temperatures, may have created a more suitable

environment for the presence of furunculosis.

Research objective 6: To determine the potential impacts on the Aboriginal community of

Ouje-Bougoumou as a result of the spread of furunculosis resulting from climate change.

69

Health impacts on the Aboriginal community

There may be many repercussions from the spread of furunculosis to the Ouje-

Bougoumou community. In particular, because game fish is one of the main food sources

for many Aboriginal members, a decline in healthy fish is detrimental to their diet. A

decrease in available healthy fish may lead to unhealthy food choices or even food

security issues. By being forced to substitute this main source of food, coupled with poor

food choices, the Aboriginal community tend to see a decrease in their dietary nutrients.

These poor choices in market foods are partially due to costs and knowledge (Ford et al.,

2006).

A diet based on subsistence is usually less costly. To replace game fish with market foods

may create a financial strain for some members. For example, the cost of having a well

balanced diet eating market foods in the Yukon Aboriginal communities can range from

125-320% of that in Edmonton (Wein, 1994). The lack of financial means is one of the

reasons why some families or individuals may be struggling with food security issues.

Since foods with low nutritional value tend to be cheaper, it may seem like the better

choice for some to go with the lesser value. But in the long run, an unhealthy diet can

lead to chronic health issues, such as diabetes or obesity.

Unfortunately, chronic health issues such as diabetes and obesity are on the rise in

Aboriginal communities, affecting both adults and children (Dean et al., 1998). To reduce

the consumption of game fish would only add to the already increasing rates of these

serious health issues. Aboriginals are three times more likely than other cultures to be

70

diagnosed with diabetes (Webster, 2006). Diabetes and obesity have become prevalent in

many Aboriginal communities (Young et al., 2000). The lack of physical activity and the

substitution of traditional foods with market foods are believed to have caused the high

increase in obesity and diabetes rates (Young et al., 2000). The continual prevalence of

furunculosis in the fish population of Ouje-Bougoumou will only make it more difficult

for community members to have a healthy diet and lifestyle.

CHAPTER 7: Conclusions and recommendations for further research

The main objectives of the study were to examine the impacts of climate change on the

spread of furunculosis found in fish species of Ouje-Bougoumou, and the impacts on the

health of the community. Looking at past climate data, there exists a parallel between

past incidences of furunculosis and the increases in mean air temperatures. This suggests

that climate change cannot be eliminated as an influential factor to the prevalence of the

disease. It is also suggested that it may have been a combination of warmer temperatures

and mining contaminants that prompted an active phase of the disease. Unfortunately, an

active spread of furunculosis may continue to occur throughout the 21st century as

summer mean water temperatures of Lac Obatogamau and Lac Chibougamau continue to

meet the optimal temperature range (12.8 to 21.1 °C) of A. salmonicida.

Since the current surface maximum temperatures of both lakes surpass the optimal range

of A. salmonicida, this bacterium may actually have a broader preferred temperature

71

range. Furthermore, the temperature tolerance zone and survival of A. salmonicida may

be primarily dictated by the survival of its carriers.

Fish species that are at a greater risk of contracting furunculosis are those that are closer

to the infected fish, those that are more sensitive to stress, and those that have greater

habitat restrictions. If fish species were located in water depths reflecting their optimal

temperature range, then the species, walleye, white sucker, brook trout, river redhorse,

and northern pike, would be at a higher risk of contracting the disease from infected fish

(i.e. infected walleyes and white suckers).

An increase in surface water temperatures will decrease the amount of dissolved oxygen

in a lake. This will force fish species to locate to an area that meets both their temperature

range and oxygen level needs. If this is unsuccessful, then the rise in water temperatures

may be fatal to the entire fish population, with or without the prevalence of furunculosis.

Climate change will have a significant impact to the fish population of Ouje-Bougoumou

(Bowden et al., 2007). If furunculosis does not kill or seriously injure the fish, then it is

possible that either the rise in water temperatures or the lack of dissolved oxygen will.

The repercussions to the Ouje-Bougoumou community include financial strain, unhealthy

food choices, and food insecurity. In a community where diabetes and obesity rates are

increasing, a decrease in healthy foods such as game fish may put Aboriginals at a greater

risk to health complications.

72

To conclude, climate change is not eliminated as a plausible factor to the onset of

furunculosis; rather, it is argued that a combination of stress factors, i.e. past mining

activities and warmer temperatures, is likely what put the fish species at risk to

furunculosis. Unfortunately, the spread of furunculosis in the fish specie of Ouje-

Bougoumou may continue into the near future.

Broader implications on the spread of furunculosis

Since furunculosis has survived for over 100 years (Bermoth et al., 1997), it is probable

that it will continue to spread not only within the Ouje-Bougoumou region, but also to

nearby areas. In particular, areas most susceptible to disease (if not already affected) are

nearby lakes, which include Lac David and Lac Scott, both north of Lac Chibougamau.

Communities of Chapais, Chibougamou, and Waswanipi may experience similar

situations to the Ouje-Bougoumou community. To thwart a similar, potentially

devastating situation as in Ouji-Bougoumou, the understanding and knowledge on the

spread of furunculosis should be relayed to nearby communities. This way, they too can

know what to expect if an outbreak were to occur in their area. This would also allow

communities to strategize plans of alternate food sources if the fish were to become

inedible.

Climate change may spatially increase the prevalence of furunculosis. More types of

species may soon be affected by furunculosis, which include longnose sucker, cisco,

round whitefish, and landlocked salmon (Hydro Quebec, 2008 and Cabrillo College,

73

1999). In addition, the disease may spread to new locations further north if infected

species migrate to other areas due to increasing water temperatures.

Recommendations for further research

Suggestions for further research include completing a spatial analysis on the spread of

furunculosis. A spatial analysis was not achieved in this study, as the exact locations of

past incidences were not clearly pinpointed. Completing a geographical analysis on the

spread of furunculosis will bring forth greater insight on where the disease may soon

occur. A second suggestion is to explore the relationship between past mining

contaminants and furunculosis. Though past mining activities could have caused stress to

the infected fish, it is not known whether there is a causal relationship between metal

contaminants and furunculosis. Lastly, a third suggestion for further research is to assess

in greater detail the impacts to the health of the community, which may provide greater

knowledge on climate change and Aboriginal health. A continual collection of TEK

would allow for further insight on the health disparities of the community. While the

community may not be able to stop the impacts of climate change on the spread of

furunculosis, they can be prepared in knowing how to deal with such impacts.

.

74

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APPENDIX I

Figure 4: Questionnaire for members of the Ouje-Bougoumou community

Topic: Analysing the impacts of climate change on the presence of furunculosis found in fish species of the Ouje Bougoumou community.

1. Approximately what year did you personally first observe or first hear about (specify from who) a change in the fish in the traditional territory of the Ouje-Bougoumou Cree?

2. Please identify on this map (1:50,000 NTS) where you first saw (or heard about –

specify from who) a change in the fish?

3. If you saw (or someone else – name) saw a change in fish, have these changes been seen in other water bodies in the traditional territory of the Ouje-Bougoumou Cree since the changes in fish were first noted?

4. Please identify on this map (1:50,000 NTS) where you now see (or someone else

– name) a change in the fish? 5. Have you noticed an increase in the amount of fishes that have changed over the

past ten years?

6. When you go out fishing, say for example, out of 10 fishes caught, how many would have appeared changed?

7. What are your thoughts about the change in the fish?

8. What do you think caused the change in the fish?

84

APPENDIX I

Figure 7. Bathymetry map of Lac Opemisca (Trakmaps, Lac Opemisca, 2008).

85

APPENDIX I

Table 8. File of lake parameters to be inputted into FLake for Lac Obatogamau.

- !Namelist configuration file for FLAKE (Lac Obatogamau) !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Length of the simulation period, time step, saving interval !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &SIMULATION_PARAMS del_time_lk = 86400.0, ! Time step [s] time_step_number = 4015, ! The total number of time steps (365*11years) save_interval_n = 1 ! Saving interval in time steps T_wML_in = 2. !initial temperature of the upper mixed layer T_bot_in = 2. !initial temperature at the bottom h_ML_in = 2. !initial mixed layer thickness / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Measurement heights/depths [m], names of input and output files !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &METEO z_wind_m(1) = 2.00, !height of the wind measurements [m] z_Taqa_m(1) = 2.00, !height of the air temperature measurements [m] z_Tw_m(1) = 0.00, !depth of the water temperature measurements [m] (CURRENTLY NOT USED) meteofile = 'obatogamau.dat' !input filename for meteorological information outputfile = 'obatogamau.rslt' !filename for output / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Lake-specific parameters !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &LAKE_PARAMS depth_w_lk = 9.45, ! Lake depth [m] fetch_lk = 3.03E+03, ! Typical wind fetch [m] sediments_on = .false. ! .FALSE. if the sediments layer is switched off depth_bs_lk = 5.0, ! Depth of the thermally active layer of bottom sediments [m] T_bs_lk = 4.0, ! Temperature at the outer edge of the thermally active layer of the bottom sediments [C] latitude_lk = 49.58 ! Geographical latitude [dgr] / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! water transparency !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &TRANSPARENCY nband_optic = 1 ! Number of wave-length bands frac_optic = 1 ! Fractions of total radiation flux extincoef_optic = 0.3 ! Extinction coefficients /

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APPENDIX I

Table 9. File of lake parameters to be inputted into FLake for Lac Chibougamau.

- !Namelist configuration file for FLAKE (Lac Chibougamau) !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Length of the simulation period, time step, saving interval !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &SIMULATION_PARAMS del_time_lk = 86400.0, ! Time step [s] time_step_number = 4015, ! The total number of time steps (365*11years) save_interval_n = 1 ! Saving interval in time steps T_wML_in = 2. !initial temperature of the upper mixed layer T_bot_in = 2. !initial temperature at the bottom h_ML_in = 2. !initial mixed layer thickness / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Measurement heights/depths [m], names of input and output files !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &METEO z_wind_m(1) = 2.00, !height of the wind measurements [m] z_Taqa_m(1) = 2.00, !height of the air temperature measurements [m] z_Tw_m(1) = 0.00, !depth of the water temperature measurements [m] (CURRENTLY NOT USED) meteofile = 'chibougamau.dat' !input filename for meteorological information outputfile = 'chibougamau.rslt' !filename for output / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! Lake-specific parameters !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &LAKE_PARAMS depth_w_lk = 13.14, ! Lake depth [m] fetch_lk = 3.03E+03, ! Typical wind fetch [m] sediments_on = .false. ! .FALSE. if the sediments layer is switched off depth_bs_lk = 5.0, ! Depth of the thermally active layer of bottom sediments [m] T_bs_lk = 4.0, ! Temperature at the outer edge of the thermally active layer of the bottom sediments [C] latitude_lk = 49.84 ! Geographical latitude [dgr] / !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ! water transparency !------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &TRANSPARENCY nband_optic = 1 ! Number of wave-length bands frac_optic = 1 ! Fractions of total radiation flux extincoef optic = 0.3 ! Extinction coefficients