A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A STANDARD GAUGE SEPARATE RAILWAY LINEIN ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA

Arnis KakulisAECOM, Director, Baltic Region

09 June 2011

Objective of the Feasibility Study

• The main objective of this feasibility study is to identify the most desirable feasible development option for a 1435 mm gauge line in the Rail Baltica corridor evolving from a “top-down” transport strategy covering all the three Baltic States and an EU-wide rail network rationale, and

• to give a complete and substantiated picture for the authorities of the 3 Baltic countries and the EU if the project seems viable enough to justify a more detailed analysis on the respective national levels and to propose a possible period for implementation of further studies at the national levels.

Sustainable Mobility

• The overall objective of the Core Network is to enhance the “European added value” of the Trans-European Transportation Network (TEN-T). This is defined as a benefit that goes beyond those achieved at national level and includes not only economic benefits, but also those derived in the cohesion, environmental and safety and security areas.

• Principles of the future TEN-T core network:– integration, – sustainability, – territorial cohesion and– openness to third countries

TEN-T Network Priority Projects

Objective of the Feasibility Study

GOODSN/S freight market is containerised

E/W freight market is bulk

GVAGrowth in GVA is stronger in the urban areas than in the rural areas

POPULATIONPopulation in the Baltic region is shrinking

GDPAverage long term growth in GDP is

2.3% in the Baltic States

Macro – Economic Context in the Baltics

URBAN

RURAL

SEAE/W freight from ports to inland CIS.N/S freight is regional to Baltic ports.

Sea cargo is mainly bulk cargo.

AIRReasonable network of routes for international air movements.Air service is less attractive for shorter distances.

RAILInt’l passenger rail service is poor.Regional rail is infrequent, yet cheap.N/S rail freight service is poor.E/W rail freight service is good.

ROADRoad network quality is poor, yet

permits reliable journey times.Good regional and int’l coach network.

Analysis of the Supply of Transport Services

PASSENGERPassenger demand is generally low for cross border movements.

Road is the preferred mode for shorter distances but changes to air for longer journeys

FREIGHTThere is a reasonable N/S freight

demand which is currently carried by road and sea

Global recession has had a negative effect on demand

Existing Demand

Existing Demand - FreightROAD RAIL

TECHNICAL (TSI)New core TEN-T mixed traffic line:

Line Category IV-MStructure Gauge GC (1435 mm)

Maximum axle load 25 tonneMinimum maximum line speed 200kph

FAST CONVENTIONAL RAIL

ENVIRONMENTALNoiseEmissionsProtected TerritoriesSustainability

ECONOMICFunding

GovernmentEU

Implementation CostsCAPEXOPEX

REGULATORYPlanning

Land expropriationSetting of Tarrifs

Infrastructure AccessPassenger Tariffs

Freight Tariffs

Constraints

Three Track Layouts Under Consideration

New Dual Track

New Dual TrackAdjacent to Existing Track

Dual Guage/ Dual Track

Option Identification

Option Identification

Initial 20+ variations narrowed down to 4 basic options.

OPTION DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENT DISTANCE (km)Option 1 –Red Route

LT Border – Kaunas –Panevezys – Riga – Parnu -Tallinn

New 728

Option 2 –Orange Route

LT Border – Kaunas – Siauliai –Riga – Parnu - Tallinn

Existing 815

Option 3 –Yellow Route

LT Border – Kaunas –Panevezys – Riga – Valmiera –Tartu - Tallinn

New 818

Option 4 –Green Route

LT Border – Kaunas – Siauliai –Riga – Valmiera - Tartu - Tallinn

Existing 885

Options IdentificationDistance/Passenger Journey Time Comparison

• For optimum fare rates.

• For all options there is a significant diversion from coach

• Diversion from rail is highest for options which follow existing rail routes

• Diversion from air is highest for fastest options

Technical Analysis – Passenger FlowsResults – Diverted Trips from Competing Modes

2020 (2-way trips per day) Red Orange Yellow Green

Div

erte

d Tr

ips

Car -2,133 (28%) -1,473 (27%) -2,322 (25%) -1,632 (26%)

Bus -3,452 (45%) -2,122 (39%) -3,894 (43%) -2,379 (38%)

Rail -222 (3%) -481 (9%) -827 (9%) -819 (13%)

Air -844 (11%) -698 (13%) -771 (8%) -599 (10%)

Induced Trips 1,039 (14%) 722 (13%) 1,332 (15%) 804 (13%)

Rail Baltica trips 7,689 5,496 9,146 6,234

Technical Analysis – Freight FlowsModel Outcome Option 1 (Red Route) 2040 – Trains per day

Assumes an inter-modal train with payload of 900t and bulk train with a payload of 3600tAssumes 14t per container – 1 train replaces 50 lorries

Assumes 18t of bulk per lorry – 1 train replaces 200 lorries

Technical Analysis – Freight FlowsFreight

Technical AnalysisInitial Option Comparison

RED ORANGE YELLOW GREENOption 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Comments

Destination and ConnectivityPrimary Cities X X X X

Secondary Cities X X

Airports X X X X

Journey TimesPassenger X X

Freight X X X

CapacityPassenger X X X X

Freight (initial targets overestimated)

CapabilityCompliant with TSI X X

Gauge Transfer FacilitiesEstonia/Latvia/Lithuania X X X X

Terminal FacilitiesTallinn/Riga/Kaunas X X X X

EnvironmentalNoise/Emissions X X X X

Protected Territories X

FRS Compliancy 10 8 9 7

Min Operating Costs X

Min Capital Costs X

Max Journey Time Savings X

Max Revenue Generation X

Max Passenger Trips X

Max Freight Volumes X

Min Technical Constraints X

Min Expropiation X

Min Spatial Planning Approvals X

Max International Movements X

Max inner‐country Movements X

Analysis  Indicators 6 1 3 1

Total 16 9 12 8

Best Feasibile Option – Red Route

• The key features of the Red Route are:– Overall length of new track 728km– Design speed 240 kph maximum – The route is a mixed traffic conventional route– Journey times between Tallinn and the Lithuanian/Polish Border

– Passenger 4.13 hrs/Freight 10.38 hrs– Average speeds

– Passenger 170 kph/Freight 68 kph– Passenger service frequency every 2 hrs starting at 06.00 and finishing at 24.00hrs– New/Upgraded passenger stations at Palemonas (serving both Kaunas Centre and

the Airport), Panevežys, Riga Central Station, Parnu, Tallinn Airport and Tallinn Central Station.

– Intermodal terminals at Tallinn, Riga and Kaunas.– Maintenance facilities at Rapla, Riga, and Jonava.– The route is twin track for its entire length on mainly new alignment– Some dual gauge (1520/1435) sections are required.

Best Feasibile Option – Red Route

Red Route – Sub-Options for Consideration

Interoperability Assessment

• Relevant TSI’s for Rail Baltica:– Infrastructure: CR INF TSI,– Infrastructure: PRM TSI (since the line includes stations)– Energy: CR ENE TSI (since the line is electrified)– Track side CCS: CR CCS TSI– RST: CR LOC&PAS TSI, RST Noise TSI– On board CCS: CR CCS– Operation and Traffic Management– Telematic Applications for both Freight and Passenger Services.

Implementation Plan

• Implementation is complex for the following reasons:– Presence of up to 4 nation stakeholders in addition to other national interested parties– Existence of differing regional economic objectives– Need to accommodate the requirements of a range of stakeholders including

potential users, railway undertakings, infrastructure managers– Acknowledgement that the programme will challenge existing regional transport

provision and will impact on current rail solutions employed

• Project Organizational Structure– Project Oversight – Program Steering Group (PSG)– Project Facilitator – Integrated Programme Organization (IPO)– Business Objective Review/Audit – Independent Review Group (IRG)

Implementation Road Map

Implementation Programme

Conclusions/Recommendations

• Demand: – speed increases passenger and freight demand

• Capital Costs: – length of alignment and speed increases capital cost (conventional v. HSR/VHSR)

• Land Costs: – existing alignments increase land cost (especially in urban areas)

• Infrastructure Management: – single infrastructure manager is recommended– single implementation authority is recommended

• Operations– Mixed train service increases operating revenues

Regional Cohesion

Tallinn

2 hrs

Riga

Kaunas

1.5 hrs

Tallinn

4.0 hrs

Riga

Kaunas

3.0 hrs

Warsaw

Warsaw

Tallinn

4.5 hrs

Riga

Kaunas

4 hrs

Tallinn

10 hrs

Riga Berlin?

EXISTING RAIL

EXISTING ROAD

BUSINESS AS USUALRAIL BALTICA – PH 1

RED OPTION

NEW ALIGNMENT

Thank You