A. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 18 October 2011 Title: Daytime Enhancement of...
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A. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 18 October 2011 Title: Daytime Enhancement of UWCI/CTC Algorithm For Daytime Operation In Areas of
a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 18
October 2011 Title: Daytime Enhancement of UWCI/CTC Algorithm For
Daytime Operation In Areas of Thin Cirrus Status: New Duration: 2
years Project Leads: Justin Sieglaff / UW-CIMSS /
[email protected] Other Participants: Lee Cronce / UW-CIMSS
Wayne Feltz / UW-CIMSS Dan Hartung / UW-CIMSS Mike Pavolonis /
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Andy Heidinger / NOAA/NESDIS/STAR 1
Slide 2
b. Project Summary 2 Refine UWCI/CTC algorithm to fill gap
identified by forecasters allow UWCI/CTC to diagnose/nowcast
cloud-top cooling/convective initiation of newly developing
convection covered by thin cirrus clouds during daytime hours.
Currently all satellite-based convective initiation/cloud-top
cooling algorithms (UW/CIMSS and University of Alabama- Huntsville)
do not operate in areas of thin cirrus clouds. Validate improved
UWCI/CTC signal within areas of thin cirrus clouds during daytime
hours. This project builds upon three previous GIMPAP funded
projects development of UWCI/CTC algorithm, WDSS-II object-based
UWCI/CTC validation, and GOES-R Cloud Team algorithms ported to
current GOES Imagers.
Slide 3
c. Motivation / Justification Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s):
Weather and Water, Commerce & Transportation UWCI/CTC algorithm
currently operates day/night to nowcast convective initiation and
determine cloud-top cooling rate in non-ice cloud areas aiding in
decision support for aviation and severe storm warning nowcasting.
Feedback from Storm Prediction Center Hazardous Weather Testbed and
local National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan Testbed suggests
the largest gap with current CI/CTC decision support is inability
to operate in areas covered by thin cirrus clouds. Thin cirrus
clouds are commonly observed to mask new convective development.
These thin cirrus clouds are largely from decayed, earlier
convection and associated with jet streaks. 3
Slide 4
d. Methodology Work with NOAA/NESDIS Cloud Team at UW/CIMSS to
acquire latest GOES daytime cloud optical depth retrievals.
Integrate GOES cloud optical depth retrievals into UWCI/CTC
box-average framework (Sieglaff, et al. 2011). Identify areas of
rapidly increasing cloud optical depth in areas of thin cirrus
clouds as a means to identify convective cloud growth occurring
beneath thin cirrus clouds during daytime hours. This will allow
for CTC rates to be calculated and CI nowcasts to be made in areas
currently excluded. Upon completion (year 1) of UWCI/CTC algorithm
refinement, perform validation (POD and FAR) of added CTC/CI points
beneath areas of thin cirrus clouds. Following slides outline the
gap in current methodology and show examples of the GOES cloud
optical depth in areas of developing convection beneath thin cirrus
clouds. 4
Slide 5
d. Methodology 5 Convection is developing along dry line over
central OK Much of the line is covered by a thin veil of cirrus
clouds (next slides)
Slide 6
d. Methodology 6 Convection is developing along dry line over
central OK Much of the line is covered by a thin veil of cirrus
clouds
Slide 7
d. Methodology 7 The thin cirrus cloud cover prevents all but
the southern most storm (fewer cirrus clouds) to be hit by the
UWCI/CTC algorithm
Slide 8
d. Methodology 8 GOES Imager Cloud Optical Depth shows rapidly
increasing cloud optical depth associated with convection
developing beneath thin cirrus clouds Use of optical depth is
critical in area of thin cirrus since cirrus clouds have very small
optical depth and underlying convective clouds will have large
optical depths
Slide 9
e. Expected Outcomes Enhance UWCI/CTC algorithm using cloud
optical depth to determine cloud-top cooling (CTC) rate and make CI
nowcasts for developing convection beneath thin cirrus clouds
during daytime hours. Validation (POD and FAR) of added CI/CTC
points beneath thin cirrus clouds. Updated algorithm output will be
provided to NWS WFOs and future testbeds (SPC HWT and local
NWSWFO-MKX) for evaluation and decision support. Publish
peer-reviewed paper detailing technique and validation of CTC/CI
points in areas of thin cirrus. 9
Slide 10
e. Possible Path to Operations The UWCI/CTC algorithm and
University of Alabama- Huntsville convective initiation algorithms
are being evaluated for possible PSDI funding. Should the UWCI/CTC
algorithm be selected, the thin cirrus improvements described in
this proposal will be included upon completion and validation. The
methodology of using cloud optical depth to diagnose cloud-top
cooling rates and nowcasting convective initiation in areas of thin
cirrus clouds during the daytime could be provided to the GOES-R
Convective Initiation Team for possible adoption into the GOES-R CI
algorithm. 10
Slide 11
f. Milestones Year 1 Acquire and implement latest GOES Imager
Cloud Optical Depth Algorithm from NOAA/NESDIS Cloud Team at
UW/CIMSS. Implement UWCI/CTC algorithm modifications to include
ability to diagnose CTC/nowcast CI in areas of thin cirrus during
daytime hours using cloud optical depth; specifically by
identifying rapid increases of cloud optical depth associated with
developing convection beneath thin cirrus clouds. Year 2 Perform
validation (POD and FAR) of added CTC/CI points beneath areas of
thin cirrus during daytime hours. Publish peer-viewed paper
outlining the daytime thin cirrus enhancement to the UWCI/CTC
algorithm and subsequent validation. 11
Slide 12
g. Funding Request (K) Funding SourcesProcurement Office
Purchase Items FY12FY13 GIMPAPStAR Total Project Funding 7375 StAR
Grant to CI 7375 StAR Federal Travel -- StAR Federal Publication --
StAR Federal Equipment -- StAR Transfers to other agencies -- Other
Sources - - -- 12
Slide 13
g. Spending Plan FY12 FY12 $73,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant
to CI 60% FTE - $68,000 Travel - $5,000 (two trips, one to HWT
other to conference) Publication charge - $0 2.Federal Travel $0
3.Federal Publication Charges $0 4.Federal Equipment - $0
5.Transfers to other agencies $0 6.Other - $0 13
Slide 14
g. Spending Plan FY13 FY13 $75,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant
to CI 55% FTE - $65,000 Travel - $5,000 (two trips, one to AWC or
HWT, other to conference) Publication charge - $5,000 2.Federal
Travel $0 3.Federal Publication Charges $0 4.Federal Equipment - $0
5.Transfers to other agencies $0 6.Other - $0 14