A global conversation

Touching on evidence of climate change

Global surface temperatures for five datasets

Adjusted to remove variation due to:• El Niño/La Niña• Volcanic particulates• Solar irradiance

Foster, 2011. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 044022

Northern hemisphere temperatures since Year 200 AD, showing how unusual is this rate of warming

Mann et al, 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105;13252, doi10.1073pnas.0805721105

Upper ocean heat content

http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/Based on Lyman et al., 2010. Robust warming of the global upper ocean, Nature Vol 465, 20 May 2010, doi:10.1038/nature09043

Many glaciers are melting

South Cascade Glacier in the state of Washington. Photo by Andrew Fountain. From Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, 2008

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/CI-snow-and-ice.pdf

Ocean CO2

NASA

Sea level trends from NASA

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCooling/page5.php

Peer-reviewed science overwhelmingly indicates that:

Climate is changing globally This change is primarily (but not

exclusively) due to greenhouse gases, especially CO2

Frost is more likely on…

Clear nightCloudy night

http://jenklee.com/index.php?/clear-night/

http://arambhusal.sulekha.com/albums/bydate/2008-05-15/slideshow/149496.htm

Insurance companies

Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 20 Oct 2011

Green color=low carbon output per ton of food produced

What do climate models project for Kentucky?

http://www.climatewizard.org/

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (Dec-Feb)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (March-May)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (Dec-Feb)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (March-May)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (June-August)

Effects of climate change on Kentucky agriculture

Impact of climate trends on corn production, 1980-2008

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Impact of climate trends on soybean production, 1980-2008

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Impact of climate trends on wheat production, 1980-2008

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Published by The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2011

Forages

C4 grasses will increase Yield and quality may be similar

Areas suitable for premium wine production

Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008

New crop/market opportunities?

http://www.extension.org/pages/18358/introduction-to-high-tunnels

Pests and disease will likely increase

Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008

What changes in nitrogen fertilization will occur?

USDA GHG Inventory, 1990-2008 (published in June, 2011)

What changes in animal production should we prepare for?

http://www.sswm.info/category/implementation-tools/wastewater-treatment/hardware/site-storage-and-treatments/anaerobic-di

“Chance favors only the prepared mind”

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 1 : 66 | DOI: 10.1038/srep00066 Quote of Louis Pasteur