A i Evolution

8/13/2019 A i Evolution

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1

How Hard is Artificial Intelligence? Evolutionary Arguments andSelection Effects

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1. Evolutionary arguments for easy intelligence

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[Journal of Consciousness Studies, Vol. 19, No. 7-8 (2012): pp. 103-130]



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1.4 Evolutionary hardness and observation selection effects



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2. Computational requirements for recapitulating evolution through genetic algorithms

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@0 $6#-' 56:0*8 2'6 ;6$,08 -076$68 5: -0*76$96*2 670%(2,0*= #*8 20 12$6*92'6* -0*-%(1,0*1 #50(2 2'#2 ;6$,08= $6D(,$61 02'6$ %,*61 0> 67,86*-64

6. SSA and clues from evolutionary timing@'6 <#$2' ,1 #;;$0B,)#26%: _4`_ 5,%%,0* :6#$1 0%84 "($$6*2 612,)#261 '0%8 2'#2 2'6 6B;#*1,0* 0> 2'6 &(*3,%% $6*86$ 2'6 <#$2' (*,*'#5,2#5%6 G67#;0$#2,*9 2'6 0-6#*1H ,* 10)63'#2 )0$6 2'#* # 5,%%,0* :6#$14

37

E11(),*9 2'#2 *0 02'6$ )6-'#*,1) $6%,#5%: -(21 1'0$2 ;%#*62#$: 3,*8031 0> '#5,2#5,%,2:= '()#*?%676%,*26%%,96*-6 -0(%8 '#76 670%768 0* <#$2' '(*8$681 0> ),%%,0*1 0> :6#$1 %#26$ 2'#* ,2 ,* >#-2 8,84

38

35 h$66);2,0* ),9'2 *02 0--($ ,>= >0$ ,*12#*-6= )012 670%768 ,*26%%,96*-61 36$6 (*#5%6 20 )#*,;(%#26 2'630$%8 36%% 6*0(9' 20 ;$08(-6 26-'*0%09:4 N03676$= )012 0> 2'6 6B#);%61 0> -0*76$96*2 670%(2,0*8,1-(1168 #5076 80 '#76 )#*,;(%#20$1 -#;#5%6 0> 200% (16= 3,2' 2'6 ;011,5%6 6B-6;2,0* 0> -62#-6#*1G3'#%61 #*8 80%;',*1H4 36 &66 ",$.07,-= &#*856$9= #*8 /012$0) GKLMLH >0$ #* 6B;%#*#2,0* 0> 2',1 -0$$6-2,0*4 37

&66 J#%$:);%6 GKLLMH #*8 E8#)1 #*8 a#(9'%,* GMPPSH4 38 @'6 0*6?5,%%,0*?:6#$ >,9($6 ,1 5612 166* #1 #* (;;6$ 50(*8 0* 2'6 $6)#,*,*9 '#5,2#5,%,2:?3,*803 >0$ 2'6<#$2'4 F2 ,1 D(,26 -0*-6,7#5%6 G'#8 '()#*1 *02 670%768H 2'#2 10)6 *#2($#% ;$0-611 0$ 676*2 30(%8 '#761%#))68 2',1 3,*803 1'(2 )(-' 100*6$ 2'#* 0*6 5,%%,0* :6#$1 >$0) *03= 61;6-,#%%: >0$ %#$96)#))#%,#*?%,.6 %,>6 >0$)14 N03676$= 2'6$6 #$6 9$0(*81 >0$ 56%,67,*9 2'#2 3'#2676$ 2'6 >#26 30(%8 '#76

566* >0$ 0($ 03* ;%#*62= 2'6$6 #$6 )#*: <#$2'?%,.6 ;%#*621 ,* 2'6 (*,76$16 3'016 '#5,2#5,%,2: 3,*8036B-6681 ` 5,%%,0* :6#$1 0$ )0$64 @'6 %,>62,)6 #*8 1,]6 0> 2'6 '#5,2#5%6 ]0*6 86;6*81 0* 2'6 )#11 0> 2'6



15

"0)5,*68 3,2' # ;$,*-,;%6 1(-' #1 &&E= 2',1 67,86*-6 -#* 56 5$0(9'2 20 56#$ 0* 2'6 D(612,0* 0> 2'6670%7#5,%,2: 0> ,*26%%,96*-64

6.1 Uninformative priors plus late evolution suggest intelligence is rare/$#*80* "#$26$ GMPS[= MPSPH '#1 #$9(68 2'#2 2'6 *6#$?-0,*-,86*-6 562366* 2'6 2,)6 ,2 200. ,*26%%,96*-6 20670%76 0* <#$2'= #*8 <#$2'^1 202#% '#5,2#5%6 ;6$,08= 1(996121 2'#2 2'6 -'#*-61 0> ,*26%%,96*2 %,>6 670%7,*90* #*: ;#$2,-(%#$ <#$2'?%,.6 ;%#*62 #$6 ,* >#-2 >#$ 56%03 M439

d0%%03,*9 "#$26$= %62 (1 86>,*6 2'$66 2,)6 ,*26$7#%1Ut — = V2'6 6B;6-268 #76$#96 2,)6 444 3',-' 30(%8 56,*2$,*1,-#%%: )012 %,.6%: >0$ 2'6 670%(2,0* 0> # 1:126) 0> r,*26%%,96*2 0516$76$1^= ,* 2'6 >0$) 0> # 1-,6*2,>,--,7,%,]#2,0* 1(-' #1 0($ 03*W G"#$26$ MPS[= ;4 [`[H\ t e= 2'6 2,)6 2#.6* 5: 5,0%09,-#% 670%(2,0* 0* 2',1

;%#*62 _ s MLP :6#$1\ #*8 t 0= 2'6 ;6$,08 8($,*9 3',-' <#$2' -#* 1(;;0$2 %,>6 `4` s MLP :6#$1 (1,*9 2'6#5076 612,)#264

"#$26$^1 #$9()6*2 2'6* $(*1 $0(9'%: #1 >0%%031U #2 0($ ;$616*2 12#96 0> (*86$12#*8,*9 0> 670%(2,0*#$: 5,0%09:= 36 '#76 *0 $6#% 3#: 0> 8,$6-2%: 612,)#2,*9 t — 4 E%10= 2'6$6 ,1 *0 # ;$,0$, $6#10* 20 6B;6-2t — 20 560* 2'6 1#)6 2,)61-#%6 #1 t 04 @'(1= 36 1'0(%8 (16 # 76$: 5$0#8 12#$2,*9 ;$05#5,%,2: 8,12$,5(2,0* 076$ t — c #8,12$,5(2,0* ,* 3',-' 0*%: # 1)#%% ;0$2,0* 0> 2'6 ;$05#5,%,2: )#11 ,1 562366* ML P :6#$1 #*8 MLML:6#$1=%6#7,*9 # %#$96 )#C0$,2: 0> 2'6 ;$05#5,%,2: )#11 ,* 1-6*#$,01 3'6$6 6,2'6$U G#Ht — tt t 0= 0$ G5Ht — uu t 04

"#$26$ 1(996121 2'#2 36 -#* *6B2 $(%6 0(2 1-6*#$,01 ,* 3',-' t — tt t 0 3,2' ',9' ;$05#5,%,2:= 1,*-6 ,>26-'*0%09,-#% -,7,%,]#2,0*1 2:;,-#%%: 2#.6 >#$ %611 2'#* _ s MLP :6#$1 20 670%76= 0($ 0516$7#2,0*1 0> >,*8,*90($16%761 #1 2'6 >,$12 26-'*0%09,-#% -,7,%,]#2,0* 0* <#$2'= $6-6*2%: 670%768 #2 2',1 %#26 8#26= 30(%8 56',9'%: (*-0))0*4 @',1 %6#761 0*%: 1-6*#$,01 ,* 3',-' 6,2'6$ t t 0 G# 1)#%% $69,0*H= 0$t — uu t 0 G# %#$96$69,0*H4 J(6 20 0516$76$?16%6-2,0* 6>>6-21= ,*26%%,96*2 0516$76$1 (*86$ 6,2'6$ 0> 2'616 1-6*#$,01 30(%80516$76 2'#2 ,*26%%,96*2 %,>6 670%768 3,2',* 2'6,$ 03* 30$%8^1 '#5,2#5%6 ;6$,08 G676* ,>= #1 ,* N#$8F*26%%,96*-6=t — ,1 )#*: 0$86$1 0> )#9*,2(86 %#$96$ 2'#* t 0H4 @'(1= #2 %6#12 (*2,% (;8#2,*9 0* 02'6$,*>0$)#2,0*= 36 1'0(%8 866) ,2 %,.6%: 2'#2 2'6 -'#*-6 0> ,*26%%,96*2 %,>6 670%7,*9 0* 0($ ;%#*62 3,2',* 2'61(*^1 %,>62,)6 3#1 76$: 1)#%%4

12#$4 &26%%#$ %,>62,)61 1-#%6 #1 M c K4`#*8 2'6,$ %(),*01,2: #1 M [4` = 3'6$6 M ,1 2'6,$ )#11 ,* 10%#$ )#1161\166 N#*16* 62 #%4 GMPP_H4 @'(1= # 12#$ PLb 0> 2'6 1(*^1 )#11 30(%8 %#12 [Lb %0*96$ #*8 '#76 #%(),*01,2: 0> QLb= #%%03,*9 #* <#$2' #*#%09(6 20 0$5,2 L4S[ El >$0) 2'6 12#$ 3,2' 2'6 1#)6 6*6$9: ,*;(2#1 <#$2'4 @'6 ,*26$#-2,0* 562366* 126%%#$ )#11 #*8 2'6 '#5,2#5,%6 ]0*6 ,1 )0$6 -0);%6B= $6D(,$,*9#11();2,0*1 #50(2 -%,)#26= 5(2 )086%1 2:;,-#%%: >,*8 2'#2 2'6 2,)61;#* # 26$$612$,#% ;%#*62 -#* $6)#,*'#5,2#5%6 ,1 9$6#26$ >0$ %611 '6#7: 12#$1= 3,2' ,*-$6#161 0> 1676$#% 5,%%,0* :6#$1 >0$ 12#$1 0*%: )#$9,*#%%:%611 )#11,76 2'#* 2'6 1(*\ 166 e#12,*9 62 #%4 GMPP[H #*8 a#))6$ 62 #%4 GKLLPH4 a,9'26$ 12#$1 #$6-0*1,86$#5%: )0$6 -0))0* 2'#* '6#7,6$ 12#$14 &(*%,.6 f?-%#11 12#$1 0> L4S?M4L_ 10%#$ )#1161 )#.6 (;0*%: Q4Rb 0> )#,*?16D(6*-6 12#$1= 3',%6 2'6 %,9'26$ L4_`?L4S 10%#$ )#11 e?-%#11 12#$1 )#.6 (; MK4Mb= #*82'6 676* %,9'26$ O?-%#11 $68 83#$>1 QR4_`b\ 166 a6J$63 GKLLMH4 E $#*80)%: 16%6-268 ;%#*62 3,%%2'6$6>0$6 56 )0$6 %,.6%: 20 0$5,2 # %,9'26$ 12#$ 2'#* 2'6 1(*= #11(),*9 2'6 *()56$ 0> ;%#*621 >0$)68 ;6$1:126) ,1 *02 7#12%: 8,>>6$6*2 f?-%#11 #*8 e?-%#11 12#$14 39 @',1 16-2,0* 8$#31 0* # 8,1-(11,0* ,* /012$0) GKLLK#H4



16

6.2 Detailed timing suggests that there are fewer than eight “hard steps”N03676$= .*03%6896 0> 2'6 <#$2'^1 '#5,2#5%6 %,>62,)6 -#* #%10 56 (168 20 #226);2 20 ;%#-6 ;$05#5,%,12,-(;;6$ 50(*81 0* 2'6 2'6 *()56$ 0> ,);$05#5%6 V-$,2,-#%W 126;1 ,* 2'6 670%(2,0* 0> '()#*14 N#*10*GMPPS5H ;(21 ,2 36%%U

F)#9,*6 2'#2 10)60*6 '#8 20 ;,-. ! 76 %0-.1 5: 2$,#% #*8 6$$0$ G,464= 3,2'0(2 )6)0$:H= %0-.1 3,2'M= K= [= _= #*8 ` 8,#%1 0> 26* *()56$1 6#-'= 10 2'#2 2'6 6B;6-268 2,)6 20 ;,-. 6#-' %0-. 3#1 4LM= 4M=M= ML= #*8 MLL '0($1 $61;6-2,76%:4 F> :0( '#8 C(12 # 1,*9%6 G10$268H 1#);%6 162 0> #-2(#% 2,)612#.6* 20 ;,-. 2'6 %0-.1= 1#: 4LLSSM= 4LSK[= M4LPR= M`4P[= #*8 KLL4_ '0($1= :0( -0(%8 ;$05#5%:)#.6 $6#10*#5%6 9(61161 #50(2 3',-' %0-. -0$$61;0*868 20 3',-' ;,-.?2,)64 E*8 676* ,> :0(8,8*^2 .*03 2'6 #-2(#% 8,>>,-(%2,61 G6B;6-268 ;,-. 2,)61H 0> 2'6 7#$,0(1 %0-.1= :0( -0(%8 )#.6$6#10*#5%6 9(61161 #50(2 2'6) >$0) 2'6 1#);%6 ;,-.?2,)614

+03 ,)#9,*6 2'#2 6#-' ;6$10* 3'0 2$,61 '#1 0*%: #* '0($ 20 ;,-. #%% ! 76 %0-.1= #*8 2'#2 :0( 3,%%0*%: '6#$ #50(2 1(--611614 @'6* ,> :0( '6#$8 2'#2 2'6 #-2(#% G10$268H ;,-.?2,)61 >0$ 10)6 1(--61136$6 4LL_PM= 4LSR`= 4K_P= 4KSM= #*8 4[KM '0($1= :0( 30(%8 '#76 # '#$86$ 2,)6 9(611,*9 3',-'%0-. -0$$61;0*81 20 3',-' ;,-.?2,)64 v0( -0(%8 9(611 2'#2 2'6 ! $12 230 2,)61 ;$05#5%:-0$$61;0*8 20 2'6 230 6#1,612 %0-.1= 5(2 :0( -0(%8*^2 $6#%%: 8,12,*9(,1' 562366* 2'6 02'6$ 2'$66%0-.1 1,*-6 2'6,$ 2,)61 #$6 #50(2 2'6 1#)64 E*8 ,> :0( 8,8*^2 .*03 2'6 162 0> %0-. 8,>>,-(%2,61=2'616 8($#2,0*1 30(%8 26%% :0( 76$: %,22%6 #50(2 2'6 '#$8 %0-. 8,>>,-(%2,614

F2 2($*1 0(2 2'#2 # 8,>>,-(%2: 0> 8,12,*9(,1',*9 #)0*9 '#$8 126;1 ,1 # 96*6$#% -0*16D(6*-60> -0*8,2,0*,*9 0* 6#$%: 1(--6114 w d0$ 6#1: 126;1= 2'6 -0*8,2,0*#% 6B;6-268 2,)61 $6 " 6-2 126;8,>>,-(%2:= #*8 #$6 *6#$ 2'6 (*-0*8,2,0*#% 2,)6 >0$ 2'6 6#1,612 126;14 @'6 -0*8,2,0*#% 6B;6-2682,)61 >0$ 2'6 '#$8 126;1= 0* 2'6 02'6$ '#*8= #$6 #%% ;$622: )(-' 2'6 1#)64

d0$ 6B#);%6= 676* ,> 2'6 6B;6-268 ;,-.?2,)6 0> 0*6 0> 2'6 %0-.1 '#8 566* # ),%%,0* :6#$1= :0( 30(%8 12,%%>,*8 2'#2 ,21 #76$#96 ;,-.?2,)6 ,* 1(--611>(% $(*1 ,1 -%016$ 20 4K 0$ 4[ 2'#* 20 M '0($= #*8 :0( 30(%8*^2 56#5%6 20 26%% ,2 #;#$2 >$0) 2'6 M= ML= #*8 MLL '0($1 %0-.14 h6$'#;1 )012 (16>(%%:= "#$26$ #*8 N#*10* #$9(62'#2 2'6 6B;6-268 2,)6 562366* 2'6 ;,-.,*9 0> 2'6 %#12 %0-. #*8 2'6 6*8 0> 2'6 '0($ '#1 #;;$0B,)#26%: 2'61#)6 2,)6 8,12$,5(2,0* #1 2'6 6B;6-268 2,)6 562366* 0*6 V'#$8 126;W #*8 #*02'6$4 40 @'6$6>0$6= ,> 36.*63 2'6 V%6>2076$W 2,)6 L #2 2'6 6*8 0> 2'6 >,*#% %0-.?;,-.,*9= 5(2 8,8 *02 .*03 '03 )#*: %0-.1 2'6$6'#8 566*= 36 30(%8 56 #5%6 20 (16 2'#2 .*03%6896 20 $(%6 0(2 1-6*#$,01 ,* 3',-' 2'6 *()56$ 0> V'#$8126;1W 3#1 )(-' %#$96$ 2'#* n x M '0($ n L4

@'(1= 20 12#$2 3,2' 2'6 1,);%612 )086%= ,> 36 #11()6 2'#2 2'6 670%(2,0* 0> ,*26%%,96*2 %,>6 $6D(,$61 # *()56$0> 126;1 20 0--($ 16D(6*2,#%%: G10 2'#2= 6494= *6$70(1 1:126)1 '#76 *0 -'#*-6 0> 670%7,*9 (*2,%)(%2,-6%%(%#$,2: '#1 670%768H= 2'#2only 16D(6*2,#% 126;1 #$6 *66868= 2'#2 10)6 0> 2'616 126;1 #$6 V'#$8126;1W ,* 2'6 16*16 2'#2 2'6,$ 6B;6-268 #76$#96 2,)6 6B-6681 <#$2'^1 202#% '#5,2#5%6 ;6$,08 G#11(),*9 2'6126;1^ ;$6$6D(,1,261 #$6 #%$6#8: ,* ;%#-6= #*8 ,* 2'6 #516*-6 0> 0516$76$?16%6-2,0* 6>>6-21H= #*8 2'#2 2'616

40 "#$26$ GMPS[H ;$0761 2',1 #*#%:2,-#%%: >0$ 2'6 1;6-,#% -#16 ,* 3',-' #%% '#$8126;1 #$6 0> 2'6 1#)68,>>,-(%2:\ N#*10* GMPPS5H 76$,>,61= 7,# O0*26 "#$%0 1,)(%#2,0*1= 2'#2 ,2 #;;$0B,)#26%: '0%81 3,2' '#$8126;1 0> 7#$,68 8,>>,-(%2,614 E%80(1 GKLMLH )#.61 1676$#% #88,2,0*#% 96*6$#%,]#2,0*1 0> 2'6 $61(%24



17

V'#$8 126;1W '#76 # -0*12#*2 -'#*-6 0> 0--($$,*9 ;6$ 2,)6 ,*26$7#%=c2'6* 36 -#* (16 2'6 9#; t e #*8 t 0 20052#,* #* (;;6$ 50(*8 0* 2'6 *()56$ 0> '#$8 126;14 "#$26$ 612,)#261 2',1 50(*8 20 56 [= 9,76* ',1#11();2,0* 2'#2 t 0 ,1 #50(2 MLML:6#$1 G5#168 0* 6#$%,6$ %0*96$ 612,)#261 0> 2'6 '#5,2#5%6 ;6$,08H4 N#*10*GMPPS5H= (1,*9 # )086% 3,2' 0*%: '#$8 16D(6*2,#% 126;1 G3,2' -0*12#*2 (*-0*8,2,0*#% -'#*-6 0> 0--($$6*-6#>26$ #*: ;$686-6110$ 126;1H= -#%-(%#261 2'#2 3,2' M4M 5,%%,0* :6#$1 0> $6)#,*,*9 '#5,2#5,%,2: G,* #--0$8#*-63,2' )0$6 $6-6*2 612,)#261H #*8 n x Q= 0*%: KMb 0> ;%#*621 %,.6 <#$2' 3,2' 670%768 ,*26%%,96*-6 30(%8'#76 8676%0;68 #1 6#$%:4

@'6 1#)6 50(*81 '0%8 G)0$6 1'#$;%:= ,* >#-2H ,> 10)6 126;1 '#76 # 5(,%2?,* 2,)6 %#9 56>0$6 2'6 *6B2 126;-#* 12#$2 G6494= 2'6 670%(2,0* 0> 0B:96*?5$6#2',*9 %,>6 $6D(,$,*9 #* #2)01;'6$6 3,2' # -6$2#,* #)0(*2 0>0B:96*= ;$08(-68 5: #*#6$05,- 0$9#*,1)1 076$ '(*8$681 0> ),%%,0*1 0> :6#$1H4 @'616 50(*81 #$6 #%101'#$;6*68 ,> 10)6 0> 2'6 126;1 #$6 #%%0368 20 0--($ ,* #*: 0$86$ G"#$26$= MPS[H4 @'(1= 2'6 V'#$8 126;1W)086% $(%61 0(2 # *()56$ 0> ;011,5%6 V'#$8 ,*26%%,96*-6W 1-6*#$,01U 670%(2,0* 2:;,-#%%: )#: 2#.6

;$0',5,2,76%: %0*9 20 962 2'$0(9' -6$2#,* V'#$8 126;1W= 5(2= 562366* 2'016 126;1= 2'6 0$8,*#$: ;$0-611 0>670%(2,0* 1(>>,-61= 676* 3,2'0(2 0516$7#2,0* 16%6-2,0* 6>>6-21= 20 -$6#26 10)62',*9 %,.6 2'6 ;$09$611,0* 36166 0* <#$2'4 F> <#$2'^1 $6)#,*,*9 '#5,2#5%6 ;6$,08 ,1 -%016 20 2'#2 9,76* 5: 612,)#261 0> 2'6 1(*̂ 16B;#*1,0*= 0516$7#2,0* 16%6-2,0* 6>>6-21 -0(%8 *02 '#76 9,76* (1 '(*8$681 0$ 2'0(1#*81 0> 126;1 0>#--6%6$#2,0*= #*8 10 -0(%8 *02= >0$ 6B#);%6= '#76 (*,>0$)%: #--6%6$#268 2'6 670%(2,0* 0> '()#*,*26%%,96*-6 #-$011 2'6 %#12 >63 5,%%,0* :6#$1 ,* 2'6 )086%441 42

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21

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22

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23

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