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A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE”. Dr. Ron Lembke. A Scary "Recent" Movie. This is Not New. Frank Capra, 1958. Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth. CO 2 collects in Troposphere Ozone O 3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from sun. Van Allen Radiation Belts. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Dr. Ron Lembke
A LITTLE BIT ABOUT “CLIMATE CHANGE”
A Scary "Recent" Movie
This is Not New
Frank Capra, 1958
Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth
CO2 collects in Troposphere Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from
sun
Van Allen Radiation BeltsMagnetic field of Earth creates radiation belts.These protect us from particles flying at Earth via solar wind (stream of ionized gases at 400 km/sec)
The Evidence
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
Atmospheric CO2 ppm Mauna Loa Observatory
Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationGraph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010
24% increase in 50 years
Jan, 2014- Polar Vortex
Jan 2014 Temperature Anomaly
1/29/14
1/27/14Prudhoe Bay, AK: -2Mason City, IA: -10
New Heat Map Color, 129°F
US Heat records 2012
Solar Activity?
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm
The Theory
CO2 equivalents, aka CO2e How does the global warming potential (GWP) of a gas compare to
CO2 CO2, by definition has GWP = 1.0
IPCC AR4 p. 212 SF6 - 8,000 tons produced per year
6,000 in electrical industry, inert gas for casting magnesium Inert filling for insulated glazing windows
0.2% of GHG emissions
Gas Lifetime (years)
GWP 20yrs
GWP 100 yrs
GWP 500 yrs
Methane 12 72 25 7.6Nitrous Oxide 114 289 298 153HFC-23 270 12000 14,800 12,200HFC-134a 14 3,830 1,430 435Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 16,30
022,800 32,600
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
United Nations Environmental Programme World Meteorological Organization
1988 mission: assess risks and impacts of climate change Comprehensive, open, objective, transparent,
scientific understanding of human-caused climate change
Assessment reports: 1990, 92, 95, 01, 07 Over 90% of change in temps caused by humans 2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors
Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences
1,372 Climate Researchers’ publication and citation data 97-98% most actively publishing support
tenets of ACC outlined by IPCC scientific prominence of the researchers
unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers
How Much Agreement?
CO2 280 ppm for human history Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are
now Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8):
Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle Tilted axis shifts: 40,000 year cycle Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year
cycle Seems unlikely
The Earth’s Rotation
So What’s Expected to Happen?
We’re at 384 ppm450 ppm would be 2°C increase 550 ppm would lead to 3° C increase
Used to be target Pests not killed by freezes Ice sheets melting faster than predicted Oceans more acidic than thought China’s growing faster than expected
350? Really hard
Climate Models
Global Weirding Atlanta
Water shortage? Why more than used to? Montana:
Elk season had to be moved No trout in the streams Snowcaps in August gone
Higher temperatures increase evaporation Soils drying out
More water in the atmosphere, has to come down Means when it rains, it pours, more huge downpours
Changing wind patterns Search “cities hardest hit by climate change evaporation”
Nevada came up first: http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Climate%20change--NEVADA.pdf
Cedar River broke record by 6 feet
In the US, it’s a political issue, so there must be two sides?
Public Opinion
“If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say, “No, he doesn’t, he is fine,” I will go with the ninety-eight. It’s common sense – same with global warming. We go with the majority, the large majority.”
Arnold Schwartzeneger
Quoted in Thomas Friedman, (2009)“Hot Flat, and Crowded,” pp. 178-9.
One Politician
Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction.
We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change...
When I look around the world today, I see continued dependence on oil from vulnerable regions... and oil money going to leaders of countries hostile to us. Then there's accelerating development in China, India and other developing economies that are reliant on fossil fuels.
Rupert Murdoch
News Corp. owns Fox. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats”
and that “We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.” Rupert Murdoch, May 9, 2007
James Murdoch, heir apparent “Thanks to friendships with Al Gore and Bill Clinton, he
has developed deep green instincts,” London Telegraph
Wife Kathryn Hufschmid works for Clinton Climate Initiative
Rupert Murdoch
Yes, I think the globe has warmed a bit! Approximately 0.74 degree Celsius (+/- 0.18 degree) in the past 100 years.
Yes, I think that man might be responsible for some part of that warming, although I’m not 100 percent convinced of how much
The cost of generating power from wind has dropped by 60 percent since 1990, and power from the first solar cells in satellites is now 98.7 cheaper than when it was introduced.
These technologies will be adopted by the world when - and only when-- they make economic sense, not when we have to depend on countries like Russia and China to be virtuous. Sure, our government can help in the form of tax breaks and incentives, but capitalism is already well on its way to solving this problem itself.
Who said it?Yes, Glenn Beck
83% of Americans say world is warming 71% of those think it’s caused partly or
mostly by humans 75% said it was warming last year
Skeptics more certain they’re right From 35% to 53%
15% of voters say it is their primary concern
A Hoax Global warming, as a man-made and
highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” Over half of House Republicans Three-quarters of Senate Republicans
“Hoax” James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate
Environment and Public Works Committee Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner, 1/25/11
How will anything happen?