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A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the
Top Five Net Oil Exporters
Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, Ph.D.
Capital & Energy Required to Produce Liquid Transportation Fuels from Fossil Fuels •
Ca
pit
al &
En
erg
y R
eq
uir
em
en
ts In
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• Carbon Content & Contaminants Increasing
Natural Gas
Bitumen Coal
Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist
email: [email protected]
Natural Gas Liquids
Condensate Light Sweet Crude
Heavy Sour Crude
Lower 48 Production 1960-1980
Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only
Lower 48 HL Plot
Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only
Total Lower 48 Production (1990 to current)
Lower 48 and World Production
Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only
Texas and Saudi Production
Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only, Railroad Commission of Texas
Texas and Saudi Production
Texas and North Sea Production
Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only
Export Land Model
ELM, UK and Indonesia, Year over Year Changes in Net Exports
Conventional Wisdom - the Economist Quote About Saudi Arabia
« Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields, so will be able to pump at the present rate for about 70 years even if it never discovers another drop of oil ».
Economist Magazine, August 10, 2006
Saudi Arabia: Constant Production at 11 mbpd, Versus Consumption Increasing at +5.7%/year
Saudi Arabia, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
4.4% ± 2%/year
URR=224 ± 24 Gb
Actual Forecast
2015
-2.7 ± 2%/year
Saudi Arabia, Net Exports
Exports ForecastConfidence Interval
Actual Forecast
2015
-4.73 ± 4%/year
Russia, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
URR=204 ± 7 Gb
0.3% ± 0.8%/year
Actual Forecast
2015
-5.1 ± 2%/year
Russia, Exports
Exports ForecastConfidence Interval
Actual Forecast
2015
-8.2 ± 4%/year
Norway, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
URR=29 ± 1 Gb
0.7% ± 2.7%/year
Actual Forecast
2015
-11.0 ± 2%/year
Norway, Exports
Exports ForecastConfidence Interval
Actual Forecast
2015
-12.1 ± 2.5%/year
Iran, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
URR=124 ± 12 Gb
2.9% ± 1.8%/year
Actual Forecast
2015
-1.5 ± 2%/year
Iran, Exports
Exports ForecastConfidence Interval
Actual Forecast
2015
-4.9 ± 7%/year
UAE, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
URR=49 ± 9 Gb
5.0% ± 5.0%/year
Actual Forecast
2015
-2.9 ± 4%/year
UAE, Exports
Exports ForecastConfidence Interval
Actual Forecast
2015
-4.0 ± 7%/year
Top Five, Production, Consumption
Supply ForecastConfidence IntervalConsumptionConfidence Interval
URR=680 ± 55 Gb
1.8% ± 0.9%/year
Actual Forecast
2015
-3.8 ± 2%/year
Top Five, Exports
Actual Forecast
2015
-6.2 ± 4%/year
Top Five Net Exports, With US Total Imports
Electrified Transportation in San Angelo, Texas, Circa 1908
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