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Adrian Economakis COO [email protected]
A Review of the Major Shipping Markets & Outlook for the Future
WHO WE ARE
WHAT WE DO
Value Trade Map Search
OUR SERVICES
WHERE WE ARE
ESTABLISHED 2010
4 OFFICES Worldwide
PEOPLE 100+
WHO WE WORK WITH
SUBSCRIBERS 350+ companies
USERS 2,000+
42%
Banks & Funds
37%
Shipowners & Operators
21%
Professional Services
BULKERS & CONTAINERS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Valu
e m
m U
SD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy
PAST
$30.89
$19.87
$16.83
$11.40
$36.66
$23.24
$20.42
$13.89
#3 CAPE +19%
#4 PMAX +17%
#1 HANDY +22%
#2 SUPRA +21%
12 Month Change
CAPESIZE VALUES
CAPESIZE VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $134.82M 2008
CAPESIZE VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $19.34M 2016
CAPESIZE VALUES
SOLD AT $20.5M IN 2017 TO CAPITAL MARITIME & TRADING
CAPESIZE VALUES
SOLD AT $29.5M IN 2017 TO NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
CAPESIZE ASSET VALUE CYCLE
PRESENT
5.0% 3.8%
0.1%
-16%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy
% C
hange
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
POSSIBLE FUTURE
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hange
Bulker Asset Values
5 Year Capesize 5 Year Panamax 5 Year Supramax 5 Year Handy
CONTAINERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Valu
e m
m U
SD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
ULCV Post Panamax Handy Feedermax
PAST
$84.86
$12.25
$12.92
$30.33
$14.92 $19.23
$36.11
$88.49 #4 ULCV +4%
#3 P-PMAX +19%
#2 FMAX +22%
#1 HANDY +49%
12 Month Change
SUB PANAMAX VALUES
SUB PANAMAX VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $71.2M
SUB PANAMAX VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $6.9M
SUB PANAMAX VALUES
SOLD AT $47.0M IN 2007 TO NAUTILUS HOLDINGS
SUB PANAMAX VALUES
SOLD AT $10.5M IN 2018 TO MPC CONTAINER SHIPS
SUB PANAMAX ASSET VALUE CYCLE
PRESENT
-13%
-41%
-57%
-8%
-16%
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
ULCV Post Panamax Panamax Handy Feedermax
% C
hange
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
POSSIBLE FUTURE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hange
Container Asset Values
5 Year Post Panamax 5 Year Panamax 5 Year Handy 5 Year Feedermax
TANKERS
PAST
#3 VLCC +6%
#4 SUEZMAX +4%
#3 LR1 +6%
12 Month Change
#2 AFRAMAX +14%
#1 MR +19%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Valu
e m
n U
SD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR2
$58.94
$42.86
$28.73
$29.37
$23.37
$62.53
$44.54
$30.48
$33.37
$27.65
VLCC VALUES
VLCC VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $192.83M
VLCC VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $47.91M
VLCC VALUES
SOLD AT $119.0M IN 2010 TO GENMAR
VLCC VALUES
SOLD AT $53.0M IN 2017 TO INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS
VLCC ASSET VALUE CYCLE
PRESENT
-9.6%
3.1%
-16.1%
-8.8%
-0.2%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR
% C
hange
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
POSSIBLE FUTURE
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hange
Tanker Asset Values
5 Year VLCC 5 Year Suezmax 5 Year Aframax 5 Year LR1 5 Year MR
OFFSHORE
0
50
100
150
200
250
Valu
e m
m U
SD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Semi-sub Rig Jack Up Rig PSV (Large) AHTS (Large)
PAST
#1 JACK UP +45%
#2 SEMI-SUB +10%
#4 AHTS +4%
#3 PSV +7%
$94.62 $81.67
$66.05
$15.64
$5.07
$89.62
$16.67
$5.26
12 MONTH CHANGE
AHTS VALUES
AHTS VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $74.14M
AHTS VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $6.16M
AHTS VALUES
SOLD AT $5.8M IN 2017 TO EASTERN NAVIGATION
AHTS ASSET VALUE CYCLE
PRESENT
-72%
-26.7%
-52.5%
-77.3%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Semi-sub Rig Jack Up Rig PSV (Large) AHTS (Large)
% C
hange
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
THE SO-SO LNG & LPG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Valu
e m
m U
SD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Large LNG VLGC LPG Small Scale LNG MGC LPG Fully Press LPG
PAST
#4 LARGE LNG -4%
$152.3
$57.54
$36.49
$32.96
$8.66
$146.7
$61.46
$41.08
$8.69
$31.16
12 MONTH CHANGE
#2 VLGC LPG +7%
#1 SMALL LNG +13%
#5 MGC LPG -5%
#3 FP LPG +0%
PRESENT
-3%
8.5% 8%
-14.0%
-7.4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Large LNG VLGC LPG Small Scale LNG MGC LPG Fully Press LPG
% C
hange
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
SUMMARY
GOING UP
Bulkers
• China Demand (One Belt One Road?)
• Small orderbook
Containers
• China Trade
• The cycle
GOING SLOW
Tankers
• Crude demand issues?
• Can’t stop ordering
• But what goes down…
Gas
• Too many ships
• But…Good demand story
HUNGOVER
HUNGOVER - OFFSHORE
BETTER INFORMATION
BETTER DECISIONS
HELPS YOU MAKE