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A romp through the foothills of logic Session 3 It would be a good idea to watch the short podcast ‘Understanding Truth Tables’ before attempting this podcast. Lecturer: (Slide 2) In the last session we learnt how to formalise English arguments as sequents of the propositional calculus. Who can tell me what a sequent is? Male: Something in sequence one, two, three, four, five, six, seven? Lecturer: No. What is a sequent? [inaudible discussion] Lecturer: No. Male: Numerical order? Lecturer: No. What is a sequent? Male: A set of statements? Male: Something used to make a statement?

A romp through the foothills of logic Session 3 › 2014 › 07 › fl3.pdf · Firstwe’vegottodrawthe emptytruth table.Toevaluatethat sequent you need a truth table. (Slide 10)

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Page 1: A romp through the foothills of logic Session 3 › 2014 › 07 › fl3.pdf · Firstwe’vegottodrawthe emptytruth table.Toevaluatethat sequent you need a truth table. (Slide 10)

A romp through the foothills of logic – Session 3

It would  be  a  good  idea  to  watch  the  short  podcast  ‘Understanding  Truth  Tables’

before attempting this podcast.

Lecturer: (Slide 2) In the last session we learnt how to formalise English

arguments as sequents of the propositional calculus. Who can

tell me what a sequent is?

Male: Something in sequence – one, two, three, four, five, six,

seven?

Lecturer: No. What is a sequent?

[inaudible discussion]

Lecturer: No.

Male: Numerical order?

Lecturer: No. What is a sequent?

Male: A set of statements?

Male: Something used to make a statement?

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Lecturer: No,  none  of  these  things.  It’s  an  argument claim.

There are semantic sequents and there are syntactic

sequents, and each of them is an argument claim.

The claim that it makes is of course the claim of any argument,

which is that ‘these premises entail this conclusion’.

Female: So is that a conclusion that you're talking about …?

Lecturer: No, I'm talking about the sequent, which is the argument claim,

which is the formalised claim that the premises entail the

conclusion.

Female: So that encompasses the whole thing?

Lecturer: Indeed. So we learnt how to formalise an English argument.

An English argument says that ‘this conclusion follows from

these premises’, and we formalise that as a sequent of the

propositional calculus, and each of the sequents tells us that

these premises entail this conclusion.

In  other  words,  there’s  no  possible  situation  in  which  these  

premises are true and this conclusion is false.

We saw that there were two types of sequents – syntactic and

semantic.  What’s  the  difference  between  the  two?  This  is  

revision for you …

[inaudible discussion]

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Male: One comes from the grammatical form, from syntax, syntactic,

and semantic is from semantics, the meaning of the words, the

words themselves.

Lecturer: It’s  true  the  semantic  sequent  has  to  do  with  meaning  and  

truth, and the syntactic sequent has to do with grammar and

structure, but one of them was defined in terms of – can you

tell me how a semantic sequent is defined, anyone?

Female: There is no logical something? (Laughter)

Lecturer: Almost. You're doing very well.

Female: No logical reason?

Lecturer: Not quite.

Male: Which one? Sorry, which one did you say?

Lecturer: Semantic we’re  looking  at.  

[inaudible discussion]

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Lecturer: Start again.

Female: No  way  in  which  you  can  have  something  on  the  left  that  isn’t  

true and still keep the other side  the  way  it  is?  I  don’t  know  …

Lecturer: You're in the right direction. The semantic sequent is defined

as ‘there is no logically possible situation in which the formulae

on the left-hand side of the sequent are all true and the

formulae on the right-hand side are false’.

The syntactic sequent, how is that defined?

It  doesn’t  take  long, does  it?  It’s  dissolved  in  a  glass  of  wine.  

(Laughter)

Female: Grammar and structure?

Lecturer: Something close …  good.

Male: The set of things on the left …  taken  together  with not the set

of things on the right is a closed thing.

Lecturer: Very good. Almost, yes. ‘The set consisting of the formulae on

the left ….’– except  we  don’t  talk  about  that.  

‘The set consisting of the counterexample of the argument is

closed’.  That’s  what  it  is.  The  counterexample consists of the

premises plus the negation of the conclusion. We will talk more

about counterexamples later.

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I  think  that’s  quite  enough  revision.  (Laughter)  

(Slide 3) In  this  session  we’re  going  to  learn  how  to  test  

semantic sequents by using truth tables, whereas in the

session tomorrow we will learn how to test syntactic sequents

by means of truth trees, or ‘tableau’, they're called.

So how do we test semantic sequents by means of truth

tables?

Now, I'm being told by Chris not to stand in front of this,

because it makes me look ghastly. (Laughter) So obviously I'm

going to stay here the whole of the rest of the session.

(Slide 4) You’ve  already  met  the  truth  table  definitions  of  the  

truth-functional connectives of propositional logic, so ‘P and Q’.

Remember the truth table – which you all came up with – I

didn’t have  to  tell  you  what  it  was  …  that’s  what  the  truth  table  

is.

That  gives  you  the  definition  of  ‘and’,  because  it  gives  you  the  

truth  value  in  every  possible  situation  of  ‘and’.  

(Slide 5) Truth tables are tabular representations of all the

possible situations generated by the combination of truth

values.

You’ve  got  ‘P’ and ‘Q’. Each of them can be either true or

false. So there are four possible situations: four possible

combinations of truth value. Because these are truth-functional

connectives, each of the rows will have a truth value in it. That

truth value will give you the truth conditions for the whole

formula.

(Slide 6) Truth tables enable us to check whether it really is the

case  that  there’s  no  logically  possible  situation  in which the

formulae on the left-hand side of the sequent are all true, and

the formulae on the right-hand side of the sequent are false.

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We use truth tables to check whether the argument claim –

the claim that the conclusion follows from the premises – is a

correct claim.

(Slide 7) To evaluate semantic sequents we need to have to

hand the truth table definitions of all the truth-functional

connectives, and luckily you have that on your handouts on

page 18 to 20.

(Slide 8) There they are again. What I've done here is I've put

them into one table, so ‘P and Q’ – whoa, I'm standing in front

of it, but never mind. (Laughter)

This  one’s  only  got  two  in,  because  this  is  a  unary  connective.  

So where ‘P’ is true, ‘not-P’ is false. Where ‘P’ is false, ‘not-P’

is true. ‘P and Q’,  where  they're  both  true,  it’s  true.  Where  

one’s  false,  it’s  false.  Where  one’s  false,  it’s  false,  and  so  on.  

That’s  exactly  what  I  told  you  earlier,  except  I've  put  them  

together on one table, which makes it easier for me. But

you’ve  got  it  on  your  handouts  as  well,  because  I  won’t  be  able  

to  show  you  this  when  we’re  working  through  it.  You  will  need  

to work from your handouts.

(Slide 9) So  we’re  going  to  learn  how  to  evaluate  semantic  

sequents by evaluating this very simple sequent. You only

have  to  look  at  that  to  see  whether  it’s  valid  or  not,  don’t  you?  

Is it valid?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: Yes,  that’s  valid.  Because  this  means  there  is  no  logically  

possible  situation  in  which  those  are  both  true  and  that’s  false,  

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and you can see immediately that if those are both true then

that has to be true.

We’re  working  on  a  sequent  where  we  know  the  answer  to  the  

question ‘is it correct or not?’ So  that’s  quite  useful.  

First  we’ve  got  to  draw  the  empty  truth  table.  To  evaluate  that  

sequent you need a truth table. (Slide 10) You need to draw an

empty truth table, and you need to know how many columns

and how many rows to draw.

Now,  you’ve  seen  me  doing  it,  and  none  of  you  have  

questioned how many rows and columns that I'm putting on,

and  that’s because it is actually quite obvious.

For the number of columns you need a number of sentence

letters. How many sentence letters are there in that sequent?

Two – ‘P’ and ‘Q’. Plus the number of formulae in the sequent.

How many are there in that sequent? Three – one, two, three.

Two plus three is five. Plus a column for the sequent itself. So

we need six columns.

(Slide 11) Here you are – six  columns.  So  you’ve  got  each  

sentence letter, plus one formula, two formula, three formula,

plus one column for the sequent itself. Are you with me?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: This is just the mechanical drawing of the truth table.

(Slide 12) To determine the number of rows we need to look at

the number of sentence letters.

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If there are two letters we need four rows. If there are three

letters we need eight rows. If there are four letters we need

sixteen rows and so on.

That’s  because  you're  trying  to  show  every  possible  

combination of the truth values of the letters.

So how many rows do we need for the sequent that we’ve  got  

here?

Male: Thirty two – no, sixty four.

Lecturer: No.  You're  jumping  to  conclusions  here.  We’ve  got  two  

sentence letters, so how...?

Male: Four.

Lecturer: (Slide 13) We  need  four  rows.  That’s  all.  So  we  need  a  truth  

table that – where’s  the one that worked?

Male: There are a couple of them on the wall.

Lecturer: Good. I've got one here that works. So we need six across this

way, and two of them can be quite small, and then we need

one, two, three, four, five, six, and we need four across, like

that.

That’s  because  we  need  true,  false,  true,  false,  true,  true,  

false,  false.  That’s  the  way  you  always  do  it.  

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The next one down is true, true, true, true, false, false, false,

false. Then you get all the combinations.

What do I put in here? ‘P arrow Q’, and then ‘P’, and then the

sequent itself, and then ‘Q’.

So  that’s  the  empty  truth  table  that  will  enable  us  to  test  that  

sequent. Any questions from that?

Right,  there  you  are.  There’s  the  empty  truth  table.  (Slide 14)

Now  we’ve  got  to  complete the truth table according to the

rules.

First  we’re  going  to  do  the  really  easy  columns.  So,  in  a  world  

where ‘P’ is true and ‘Q’ is  true,  what’s  the  truth  value  of  ‘Q’?

Female: True.

Lecturer: Dead  easy,  wasn’t  it?  In  a  world  where  ‘P’ is true and ‘Q’ is

false,  what’s  the  truth  value  of  ‘Q’?

Female: False.

Lecturer: You've  all  got  this.  What’s  the  next  one?

Female: True.

Female: False.

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Lecturer: It’s  exactly  the  same,  in  other  words.  All  you’ve  got  is  ‘Q’, so

you just transfer the truth values from ‘Q’ to that.

We can do the same with ‘P’. What do I put in here?

[inaudible discussion]

Lecturer: True,  true,  false,  false.  You’ve  got  the  idea  immediately.  (Slide

15) So  you  see  we’ve  got  here  true,  false,  true,  false,  exactly  

the same, and true, true, false, false. Anyone not with me on

that?

(Slide 16) Next  we  do  the  more  complex  formulae.  We’ve  got  

the  sequent  left,  but  we  will  do  that  at  the  end.  We  can’t  do  that  

until  we’ve  got  to  the  end.  

Here  we’ve  got  a  complex  formula,  and  we  need  to fill that in

according to the truth table definition for conditional. So make

sure  you’ve  identified,  on  your  truth  table  definitions,  the  

formula for the conditional. (Slide 17)

Female: I have a question about the formula for the conditional. Is it

supposed to be assumed at the moment or … [inaudible]?

Lecturer: Yes,  you  are  just  assuming  it.  That’s  the  one  that  you’ve  got  to  

take on my authority for now, though you're quite right to

question  it.  It’s  not  obvious  where  it  comes  from  at  all,  but  

believe me, that’s  it.  We  haven’t  got  time  to  …

Female: …  I figured! [Laughter]

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Lecturer: We’ve  got  a  whole  session  tomorrow  for  questions  and  

answers, so that would be a very good question to ask during

that.

So, given the truth table definition of the conditional, what do I

put in here? Can anyone tell me? What do I put here in row

one?

Male: True.

Lecturer: Does anyone not understand why I'm putting ‘true’ there?

Male: Should you not use small letters like the other ones?

Lecturer: Yes, I probably should.  You're  quite  right.  I  don’t  need  to,  

actually. Usually I say uppercase letters for whole formulae.

These are whole formulae. But I've started like that so I will

finish.

Does anyone not understand why I put ‘true’ there? No? Okay.

Look at the truth table definition of the arrow, which is this one,

this layer here. Where ‘P’ is true and ‘Q ‘is true, ‘P arrow Q’ is

...?

Female: True.

Lecturer: True.  That’s  why  I  put  ‘true’ there.

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What do I put under row two, where I put ‘P is true’ and ‘Q is

false’?

Female: False.

Lecturer: False. What do I put under ‘P is false’ and ‘Q is true’?

Male: True.

Lecturer: True. And false, false...?

Female: True.

Lecturer: Is  true.  So  it’s  false,  false,  true.  I'm  just  copying  from  the  table.  

There’s  nothing  odd  about this.

The truth table for ‘P arrow Q’ tells  us  that  that’s  true  unless  

the antecedent is true and the consequent is false. I will justify

that tomorrow if you ask me in the question and answer

session.

(Slide 18) Does anyone not understand where I've got all

those truth values?

Where it would be harder is if this was ‘Q arrow P’. How would

I work it out if this was ‘Q arrow P’ instead of ‘P arrow Q’? Can

anyone tell me?

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Male: Just swap the two around? Swap P and Q in the truth table

that defines the arrow here  …?

Lecturer: Yes.  You’re  absolutely  right.  What  you  do,  so  ‘P arrow Q’ is P

is  here,  true,  and  Q  is  true.  It’s  true.  If  it  were  ‘Q arrow P’, it

would actually be the same. You would have true and true. But

if  it’s  ‘Q arrow P’, instead of true, false, and therefore false, you

would have false, true, and therefore...?

Male: True.

Lecturer: True, yes. Do you see? So you have to be very careful, in

filling  these  in,  that  you’ve  got  the  right  sentence  letter  in  the  

right place.

This is an easy one, because I've done it in the same order as

the truth table definitions are giving you.

Let’s  see  where  we  are.  Okay,  so  that’s  where  we  are.  We’ve  

done the truth values for all the formulae now. (Slide 19) The

only  thing  we’ve  got  left  to  do  is  to  check whether the sequent

itself is correct or incorrect.

So  there  we’re  not  looking  at  whether  it’s  true  or  false,  we’re  

looking  at  whether  it’s  correct  or  incorrect,  because  the  

sequent says there is no logically possible situation – and each

of these is a logically possible situation, okay? (Slide 20)

There is no logically possible situation in which all the formulae

on the left-hand side are true and the formulae on the right-

hand side false.

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Well, is there a situation where all the formulae on the left-

hand side are true?

Female: Yes.

Lecturer: Which one?

Female: The top row.

Lecturer: (Slide 21) The top one, both of the formulae on the left-hand

side  of  the  sequent  are  true,  aren’t  they?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: Everything else is actually of no interest  to  us,  because  it’s  not  

the case that the formulae on the left-hand side are all true. So

it’s  only  that  one  that’s  interesting.  

Is it the case that all the formulae on the left-hand side are all

true and the formulae on the right-hand side are false, or not?

Female: No.

Lecturer: It’s  not,  is  it?  We’ll  carry  on.  

(Slide 22) So  we’re  looking  at  number  one.  That’s  the  only  one  

that interests us.

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In row one, if the formula on the right-hand side is false then

the sequent is incorrect. (Slide 23) But  it’s not  false,  is  it?  It’s  

true. Therefore the sequent is correct, and we tick it, and we

see that that sequent is a correct sequent.

There’s  no  possible  situation  where  the  formulae  on  the  left-

hand side are true and the formulae on the right-hand side are

false, therefore the sequent is correct, and we know that the

argument is valid.

(Slide 24) Would you like to test that sequent on your own?

Male: Just to check, you're not interested in any of the other results?

Lecturer: No.

Male: Because the other results  don’t  apply?

Lecturer: Because  it’s  only  if  all  the  formulae  on  the  left-hand side are

true  that  we’re  interested  in  the  formulae  on  the  right-hand

side.

None of these situations is such that all the formulae on the

left-hand side are true. One is true and one is false in each

case,  and  that’s  therefore  not  interesting.  

So  we’re  only  interested  in  the  ones  where  all  the  formulae  on  

the left-hand side are true.

So  do  that  one  on  your  own.  Let’s  see  if  you  can  do  that  on  

your own.

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Male: That’s  presumably why you rewrite the ‘P’ column?

Lecturer: Why we write the...?

Male: The ‘P’ column is repeated, but the second incarnation of the

‘P’ column is there to allow you to make the comparison easily,

without getting lost?

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: Suppose you just [inaudible]-

Lecturer: Because  that’s  a  sentence  letter  and  that’s  a  formula.  That’s  a  

sentence  letter  and  that’s  a  premise,  if  you  like.  

Male: Yes, okay.

Lecturer: That just gives us the key to the truth value, and that gives us

the actual truth value. They happen to be the same, because

they happen to be the same formula.

See if you can do that one. Put up your hands if you need my

help.

(Slide 25) Just  draw  the  truth  table  for  now  and  don’t  start  

completing it. I mean complete the truth value to the sentence

letters,  but  don’t  do  the  formula  yet.  

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Put up your hands if you want my help.

So how many columns do I need?

Male: The same number as last time.

Female: Six.

Lecturer: Six? Okay, so one, two, three, four, five, six.

How many rows do  I  need  … [inaudible discussion]? How

many rows do I need [apart from that]?

Female: [Four].

Lecturer: Four? Okay, one, two, three, four. What do I put in here? P, Q.

Then the truth values down here?

Male: TTFF.

Lecturer: TTFF and TFTF, good. Then what do I put here?

Female: ‘P then Q’.

Lecturer: ‘P then Q’.

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Male: [inaudible discussion]. Oh, sorry.

Female: Oh, sorry.

Lecturer: No.  All  we’re  doing  at  the  moment  is  the  truth  table,  the  empty  

truth table.

Male: ‘Q’.

Lecturer: ‘Q’.

Female: Sequent.

Lecturer: Sequent.

Male: ‘P’.

Lecturer: ‘P’. Good. (Slide 26) So  that’s  the  truth  table.  That’s  the  empty  

truth  table.  We  haven’t  started  proving  anything  yet.  

Is that what people had?

Male: Can you put an F on the bottom row of Q, TFTF?

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Lecturer: Sorry. You're quite right. Good.

(Slide 27) The next thing we do is we start proving it. The truth

table should be very like the one we drew for the last sequent.

In  fact,  it’s  identical  to  the  one  we  drew  for  the  last  sequent,  

except  it’s  got  a  different sequent in it.

So your next steps, put in the appropriate truth values for the

simple formulae, the complex formulae, and then for the

sequent.

Are we ready? Would people like more time or should we get

on?

What do I put under here?

Male: TTFF?

Lecturer: No,  Chris,  you  know  how  to  do  this.  Let’s  have  someone  else.  

What do I put under the ‘P’?

Female: TFF.

Lecturer: TTFF, exactly the same as under ‘P’ there, exactly the same.

What do I put under the ‘Q’?

Male: [The same].

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Male: TFTF.

Lecturer: TFTF,  because  it’s  exactly  the  same  there,  that  is  just  ‘Q’. So

what’s  the  truth  value  of  ‘Q’ in the world in which ‘Q ‘is true?

It’s  true,  obviously.  What  goes  in  here?  

Male: TFTT.

Lecturer: Who said that? Steve? TFTT.

Small cases again, but never mind.  It  doesn’t  matter.  

That comes from the truth table definition of the conditional

again.

Now we get to check it. Looking at each of these rows

separately, because each row represents a different possible

world, is there a possible world in which the premises are all

true – in which the formulae on the left-hand side of the

sequent are all true?

Female: The first one.

Lecturer: The first one, so that one. Is there any other one?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: Which one?

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Male: The third.

Lecturer: Three is also such that both the – sorry,  it’s  not  obvious,  but  

that’s  because  of  my  writing …

But ‘if P then Q’ is true, because ‘P’ is false and ‘Q’ is true,

therefore  it’s  true,  ‘Q’ is true, therefore that one, the formulae

on the left-hand side, are also all true.

(Slide 28) Now  we  need  to  check  whether  there’s  a  situation  in  

which they are all true on the left-hand side and yet false on

the right-hand side. Is there one?

Male: Yes [inaudible].

Lecturer: Well,  that’s  not  one,  is  it,  because  that’s  true  on  the right-hand

side as well? But that one is a counterexample.

Male: Sorry, I've missed something here. I thought ‘P’ was false on

number three?

Lecturer: You thought was ‘P’ was false on number three? It is.

Male: Yes.

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Female: I made exactly the same thing.  You’re  not  supposed  to  count  

when you're looking at it. You just count the formulae bit. So

this  bit,  ‘if P then Q – T’, and then the ‘Q’,  and  you  don’t  count  

the ‘P’ and ‘Q’ initially.

Lecturer: These are just the key. These two both tell you only what the

truth values are. They're telling you all the different

combinations.

Given  that  you’ve  got  two  truth  values,  you  need  a  world  in  

which both are true, both are false, and one of them is true,

one  of  them  is  false.  That’s  the  same  on  all  of  them.  

In the world in which ‘P’ is false, then ‘P’ is false. So the

formulae on the right-hand side is also false.

Here  you’ve  got  a  situation  where  both  the  premises  are  true,  

and  the  conclusion  is  false,  and  therefore  that’s  a  

counterexample to the argument.

Does that make sense? This ‘P’ is very different. This ‘P’ (the

one on the RHS of the sequent) is a conclusion, and this ‘P’  

(the one in the key) is actually just the key.

This ‘P’ is just telling us the different truth values, in order to

give us the world  that  we’re  looking  at,  in  order  to  determine  

whether the sequent is true or false in that world.

So all we want is one possible world in which all the premises

are true, and the conclusions false, (Slide 29) and we know

that that sequent is incorrect, and therefore …

Male: So it means the whole sequent is incorrect?

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Lecturer: It means the whole sequent is incorrect.

Male: So you could have three true, three-

Lecturer: Remember the definition of validity is there is no possible

world in which all the premises are true and the conclusion

false.

These  are  all  the  possible  worlds.  So  what  we’re  saying  is  

there is no possible world.

So one world in which the premises are true, and the

conclusion false, is enough to show that the whole thing is

invalid.

Male: So if you had a table of 64 entries, and you only one cross

somewhere-

Lecturer: One cross shows you the sequent is incorrect, the argument is

invalid, yes.

Male: Ah, right.

Lecturer: It  doesn’t matter how many ticks you get – unless all of them

are  ticks,  in  which  case  you  know  it’s  correct.  

Male: You can ignore the ones  of  which  the  other  side  is  ‘both not

true’?

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Lecturer: Anywhere  it’s  not  the  case  that  all  the  left-hand side are true,

that’s  not  of  interest,  because  you  haven’t  got  a  situation

where the premises are all true.

An argument is only good if the premises are all true and it’s  

valid,  i.e.  it  can’t  be  the  case  that  the  premises  are  true  and  the  

conclusion false.

Male: However complicated, one cross means the whole argument

fails?

Lecturer: However complicated, one cross means the whole argument

fails.

Male: I think earlier you mentioned ‘affirming the consequent’?

Lecturer: The  reason  this  is  invalid  is  it’s  affirming  the  consequent,  yes.  

This  is  a  very  typical  fallacy.  It’s a very common fallacy. It is a

fallacy  because  it’s  affirming  the  consequent,  yes.  

Male: We’ve  only  been  dealing  with  ‘P’ and ‘Q’. If you go [beyond the

boundary and ‘P’,  ‘Q’,  ‘R’ and whatever, would it still work?

Lecturer: Oh, yes, it will work. It doesn’t  matter  how  many  sentence  

letters you have, this will always work. It always works. You

won’t  ever be left with uncertainty on this. You will always get

an  answer.  Let’s -

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Male: Sorry, I've just realised what the fallacy is now you've

explained it. ‘P therefore Q’, ‘P’ so ‘Q’, this is ‘if P then Q’, ‘Q’

then ‘P’   …

Lecturer: Yes,  except  you  shouldn’t  be  interpreting  that  [the sequent] as

‘then’.  This  is  not  an  ‘if/then’.

Male: No.

Lecturer: There’s  a  big  difference  between  implication  and  entailment.

So there you are. (Slide 28 again) This  is  exactly  what  we’ve  

just done. In row one, the formulae to the left-hand side are all

true,  but  so  is  that  to  the  right,  so  that’s  not  a  counterexample.

But in row three, the formulae to the left are all true, but the

formula  to  the  right  is  false,  and  that’s  exactly  what  we  need  

for a counterexample.  That’s  enough  to  tell  us  that  the  whole  

sequent is incorrect.

Male: So  it  doesn’t  matter,  in  this  context,  if  there  is  no  situation  in  

which both propositions are true? If you constructed a sequent

and you built your table, and there were no examples of where

all of the propositions were true on the left-hand side, that

wouldn’t  matter?

Lecturer: No.

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Male: It  doesn’t  matter  that  there  are  no  ticks.  It  only  matters if

there’s  one  cross.

Lecturer: The crosses are the only things that are really interesting. We

only put the tick in because you see ‘two trues’. All the

premises to the left-hand side are true.

Male: If there are no ticks and no crosses, what then?

Male: It’s  still  a  valid  argument…

Lecturer: It  might  be  all  like  that.  That’s  fine.  

Male: Is it a valid argument?

Lecturer: It’s  not  invalid.  (Laughter)  Given  that  it’s  either  valid  or  invalid,  

it  not  being  invalid  means  it’s  valid,  yes.  

Male: Is this the root of the reason why a lot of science is done by

disproving stuff rather than proving stuff?

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: Because  this  process  can’t  prove, but it can invalidate.

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Lecturer: The reason that Popper was so anti-induction is because

induction never gives us certainty. He thought that what we

need to do is falsify arguments instead of proving them,

because  you  can’t  prove  anything,  but  what  you  can  do  is  

falsify them. You can deductively falsify things.

Male: Yes,  which  is  what  we’ve  just  done,  but  that’s  the  basis  of -

Lecturer: Popper’s  …

Male: That’s  the  basis  of  the  null  hypothesis  test,  with clinical trials in

epidemiology. You always prove that the null hypothesis is

wrong. You never prove your hypothesis is right.

Lecturer: Yes.  You  shouldn’t  be  trying  to  confirm  your  thesis.  You  should  

be trying to ‘disconfirm’ it. You should be trying to falsify it.

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: (Slide 29 again) Good. So we now know that the sequent ‘P

arrow Q’, ‘Q’ – you see, I'm doing it now – ‘sequent’ ‘P’ is

incorrect, and the argument therefore invalid.

The  interesting  thing  is  we’ve  also  got  the  counterexample to

the argument. We can say that this argument is invalid

whenever ‘P’ is false and ‘Q’ is true.

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If we had an interpretation, which we  don’t,  because  we’ve  just  

been working with the sentence letters, but if we had an

interpretation we can get exactly what the counterexample is.

So we could see under what conditions this argument is

invalid.

So not only do you know with complete certainty that it is

invalid, you also know when it is invalid, what the situation is

that makes it invalid.

Well,  so  far  we’ve  done  baby  steps,  and  these  are  really  easy  

arguments. We knew before we even started whether they

were invalid or not.

(Slide 30) Now  let’s  do  this  one.  So  this  is  the  sequent.  Do  you  

remember  what  that’s  about?  Does  anyone  remember  what  it’s  

about?

Female: Tickling cats.

Lecturer: Tickling  cats,  exactly  so.  That’s  the  formalisation  of  the  ‘If you

tickle her you deserve to get scratched’ type of argument. If

you remember, that was the interpretation. (Slide 31) It’s  all  

about whether she wanted you to tickle her, and whether you

went about it in the right way, and so on.

To test this sequent, naturally we first draw the truth table.

Okay, draw the truth table. (Slide 32)

Female: Are you telling us to?

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Lecturer: Yes. (Laughter) Well, you know the  algorithm  … So you need

to work out how many columns and how many rows.

Female: Can  we  have  it  up  again,  because  I  can’t  remember  it.

Lecturer: Yes,  sorry.  There’s  the  formula.  Has  anyone  worked  out  how  

many  columns  we’ve  got  yet?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: Put up your hand if you have. Well done. How many?

Female: Ten.

Lecturer: Ten? Is that what everybody has got?

Male: Nine.

Lecturer: Some  of  you  think  ten,  some  of  you  think  nine.  I  think  it’s  nine,  

actually.

Male: Nine, yes.

Lecturer: You're getting an extra one from somewhere.

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Male: Yes, I'm going with ‘not  P’  column,  separate to the …

Lecturer: No,  that’s  a  mistake.  

Male: Oh.

Lecturer: Well, where would you have a ‘not  P’  column?

Male: [inaudible discussion]

Lecturer: Well,  then  you  shouldn’t  have  that,  should  you?

Male: Oh, okay.

Lecturer: Yes. There are nine columns. Okay, good, nine columns. Now

I want to know how many rows there are.

Male: Sixteen.

Lecturer: Sixteen?  Well  done.  You’re  getting  this  very  fast.  Well  done.

Female: I have to make this, I tell you now.

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Lecturer: So here we are. There we are. (Slide 33) Nine columns and

sixteen...

The only reason we work  out  sixteen  is  we’ve  got  ‘true false,

true true false false, true true true true false false false false,

true true true true true true true true, false false false’...

You can see why truth tables are a bit of a bore, and why you

will be very glad to get onto tableau tomorrow, which are

much, much easier!

Tableau work just as well as truth tables, but they're much,

much  easier,  but  only  after  you’ve  learnt  how  to  do  them.  Truth  

tables …

Female: Can’t  we  do  those  first?

Lecturer: No. (Laughter)

[inaudible discussion]

Lecturer: How many columns there are? Well, I gave you the formula

earlier.  If  you’ve  got  two  sentence  letters  there  are  four.  If  

you’ve  got  three  sentence  letters  there  are  eight.  If  you’ve  got  

four sentence letters there are sixteen.

[inaudible discussion]

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Male: It’s  two  raised  to  the  power  of  the  number  of  letters.

Male: Yes: two squared by nine, four squared.

Lecturer: There you are.

Male: No,  it’s  not  squared,  because  you’ve  got  …

Male: No, sixteen is three squared by four squared. It’s  a  nine  to  

sixteen  matrix,  isn’t  it?  

Lecturer: Ask him, not me. (Laughter)

Male: This is ....

Male: In the first column the convention to have all Ts and then Fs is

obvious. In the second, third, and fourth column is there

anything simple to remember the convention, or do you just  …

Lecturer: What  you’ve  got  to  have  is  the  situation  for  all  the  possibilities,  

and  this  is  just  a  way  of  making  sure  you’ve  got  that.  So  this  is  

‘true true true true, true true true, false, true true true, false,

true true, false false’, etc.

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Male: So, if we were doing it on our own, certainly as long as we

have  all  the  combinations  we’d  have  it,  but  this  is  the  

convention.

Lecturer: This is the way we are doing it, yes.

Male: Right. Because you could have all  Ts  in  the  second  row  …

Lecturer: Well,  this  is  the  way  to  remember  it.  It’s  knee-jerk  stuff.  It’s  

dead  easy  to  do  this  once  you’ve  started  to  do  it.  

Now we need to start doing the formulae. (Slide 34) Now,

every  one  we’ve  done  so  far,  we’ve  done  complex formulae

but  we  haven’t  done  one  with  two  truth-functors  in.  Here  we’ve  

got one formula that has two truth-functors. Which one is it?

Female: The last one.

Lecturer: It’s  the  last  one.  It’s  the  one  on  the  right-hand  side.  You’ve  got  

a negation sign and a conditional.

What are we going to do first, do you think: the negation sign

or the conditional?

Male: Well, the negation sign only applies to ‘P’ in this case.

Lecturer: Good, yes. We do the truth-functor with the smallest scope first

when  we’re  doing truth tables.

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The  one  with  the  smallest  scope,  we’ve  got  the  ‘not-P’. The

scope of the ‘not’ is just ‘P’. If the ‘not’ were outside the

brackets, the scope of the ‘not’ would be ‘P arrow S’, but here

it’s  just  ‘P’.

So  what  we’re  going  to  do  is,  in  lowercase letters, we want to

put in the truth value of ‘P’. And how are we going to do that?

Male: Just reverse the first P?

Lecturer: It’s  just  going  to  reverse  whatever  we’d  had  in  ‘P’.  So  it’s  the  

‘P’ that’s  negated,  so  this  is  going  to  reverse  whichever truth

value ‘P’ has in the key. (Slide 35) So there we are. ‘P’ is true,

‘not-P’ is false. ‘P’ is false, ‘not-P’ is true, and so on. Do you

see how that works?

So having done the ‘not-P’, we now want to put in the

conditional. This is where I warned you before: you’ve  got  to  

be very careful about using the truth table definition of the

conditional, because this is the antecedent: not ‘P’. Are you

with me?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: So  here  we’ve  got  ‘S’. (Slide 36) Well, we could actually put in

the truth – I think I've done that, actually. Let me see whether I

have. Yes, I have. I've put in the ‘S’ here. (Slide 37)

You  will  notice  that  this  is  exactly  what’s  there  has  gone  in  

here.  That’s  just  to  make  it  much  easier  for  us  to  fill  in  the  truth  

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value of the  whole  formula  here,  because  we’ve  actually  go  the  

truth values on each side.

As  you  get  more  practiced  you  don’t  have  to  do  this.  You  can  

just  do  it  from  the  key.  But  let’s  not  do  that.  Let’s  not  run  before

we can walk. So what do we put: false, true? What’s  the  truth  

value for the conditional? (Slide 39)

Chris: Whatever it is.

Lecturer: True or false? ‘Whatever it is’, says Chris. (Laughter)

Male: True.

Lecturer: That’s  true.  Okay,  what’s  ‘false, false’?

Male: True.

Lecturer: ‘False, true’?

Male: True.

Lecturer: Actually, you will notice that every time the antecedent of a

conditional is false, the conditional is...?

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Male: True.

Lecturer: (Slide 39) True. So we can put ‘true’ in all of those. Are you

with me?

If you look at the truth table definition for the conditional, you

will see that whenever the antecedent is false the conditional is

true. So, as the antecedent is false in all these, all of these will

be true. So actually we can just put ‘T’ down all those and start

looking here.

When the antecedent is true, and the conditional is false, the

truth value is...?

Male: True.

Lecturer: True. When the antecedent is true and the conclusion is false,

false.  So  we’ve  got  our  first  ‘false’ here. True or false?

Male: True.

Lecturer: True. True or false?

Male: False.

Lecturer: False.

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Male: True.

Lecturer: True, false, true, false. Are you with me?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: So  there  we  go.  Have  a  look  at  that  and  see  if  there’s  anything  

you  don’t  understand.  Put  your  hands  up  if  there  is.  

Next  we’re  going  to  do  this  one.  Looking  at  your  truth  table  

definition  for  ‘or’,  see  how  to  fill  those  in.  

That  one’s  quite  easy,  because  you’ve  got  ‘PQ’ in the right

order  there,  so  actually  that’s  quite  a  nice  one  to  do.  

Let’s  move  on.  There’s  one.  (Slide 40) That’s  the  truth  table

definition for disjunction – the  ‘or’ – and  that  tells  us  that  it’s  

only false when ‘P’ is false and ‘Q’ is false.

So when we fill that in here, (Slide 41) if you look at ‘P’ and ‘Q’

here,  we’re  looking  for  when  they're  both false, and actually

that  doesn’t  happen  until  down  here,  and  there  are  four  rows  in  

which they are both false, and in each case each of those is

false, otherwise they're true. Are you with me?

Female: Yes.

Lecturer: So ‘P’ or ‘Q’ is true, then ‘P’ and ‘Q ‘are both true. When ‘P’ is

true and ‘Q’ is false, ‘P or Q’ is true. The only time where ‘P or

Q’ is false is where ‘P’ is false and ‘Q’ is false. Are you with

me?

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Male: Yes.

Lecturer: So  that  one’s  filled  in.  Again,  it  just  comes  mechanically  from  

the  truth  table  definition  of  ‘or’.  

Now we need to do the two conditionals. (Slide 42) The

hardest thing about these is getting the – in each case they are

in the same order – but  it’s  getting  the  truth  values  in  the  right  

place from the key.

Okay, ‘Q arrow R’.  Tell  me  why  that’s  true,  somebody.  Anne,  

can you tell me – sorry, picking out Anne is so mean, but go

on.  Can  you  tell  me  why  that’s  true?

Anne: Because ‘S’ is true.

Male: Which one is this?

Lecturer: That’s  not  true,  because  ‘S’ is  true.  That’s not the only reason.

Male: It is.

Lecturer: Well, yes,  but  it’s  not  from  what  I'm  … because ‘R’ is false and

‘S’ is  true.  So  that  gives  you  true  here,  because  that’s  what,  

again, the truth table definition says.

Why is that false? Can somebody tell me that?

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Male: ‘P’ is false.

Lecturer: Because ‘R’ is true and ‘S’ is false, and therefore ‘if R then S’

is  false.  That’s  the  only  time  when  ‘if R then S’ is false, is when

the antecedent is true and the consequent is false.

(Slide 43) Does everyone see where these are coming from?

Or  if  they  don’t  see  particular  ones,  they’ve  got  the  general  

idea?

Male: You say, ‘Do you understand it?’ I say, ‘I can fill the table in,

but I'm not sure I actually understand what it means.’

Lecturer: Being able to fill the table in is quite enough at the moment.

Well, you do understand what it means, because what you're

doing, we know that each one of these truth-functors is truth

functional. So the truth value of the whole depends only upon

the value of its parts.

Male: Yes, I understand that.

Lecturer: All  we’re  doing  is  saying  what  the  impact  of  the  combination  of  

the truth value of the parts is.

Male: Yes.

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Lecturer: We know how to work that out from the truth table definitions.

(Slide 44) Now we can fill in this column, which will tell us

whether the argument is valid or not, or whether the argument

sequent is correct. So is there a possible situation there in

which all the premises are true?

Female: Yes.

Lecturer: So give me the numbers of the rows. So number one, row one

is  true  true  true.  Good.  Two  is  true  false,  so  it  doesn’t  count.  

So  the  next  one  is  this  one,  isn’t  it?  True  true  true.  This  one  is  

true true true. This  one  and  this  one  … So quite a few of them,

actually.

Male: There are five.

Lecturer: Here they are. (Slide 45) There we are. There are lots of them

in which the – well, I've filled in the tick already, so no.

We  now  need  to  check  each  of  these  to  see  whether  we’ve  got  

a false on this side, and wherever all the premises are true the

conclusion  is  also  true,  isn’t  it?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: So  there  isn’t  a  counterexample. There is no possible situation

in which the formulae on the left-hand side are all true and the

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formulae on the right-hand side are false. Therefore the

sequent is correct. (Slide 46)

Male: Would I be safe in only considering the ones that are false on

the right-hand side and not being interested in the rest?

Because to find the counterexample …

Lecturer: Well,  that’s  not  a  counterexample, is it?

Male: No, but I'm only going to look at the ones that say F on the

right-hand side.

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: I  don’t  need  to  discuss  any  of  the  ones  that  say  ‘T’.

Lecturer: Well,  it  doesn’t  matter  which  way  round  you  go.  You  have  to  

look  at  whether  what’s  on  the  left-hand side is true and what

on the right-hand side is false. You can start by looking at

what’s  false  on  the  right-hand side.

Male: Just that  there  are  fewer  of  them  …

Lecturer: Yes,  it  doesn’t  matter  at  all.  

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Male: There are only four places where the sequent comes out as an

F.

Lecturer: One, two, three, four.

Male: So you only need to look at those rows.

Lecturer: You could look there.

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: But  they’ve  all  got  an  ‘F’ in them, so you can...

Male: So  there’s  no  counterexample?

Lecturer: Yes,  there’s  no  counterexample. So that argument claim is

correct. There is no possible situation in which the formulae to

the left-hand side are true and the formulae to the right-hand

side are false. Therefore the sequent is correct, and we know

that the argument is...?

Male: Valid.

Lecturer: Valid, yes. So the sequent is correct, the argument is valid.

(Slide 47) This is the argument with which we started, and we

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know for absolutely certain, completely conclusive, that this

argument is valid.

There is no possible situation in which the premises of that

argument are true and the conclusion of that argument is false.

So  it’s  a  good  argument.  (Slide 48) There are some semantic

sequents for you to practice on.

Male: Thank goodness! (Laughter)

Lecturer: And incidentally, what do you think this means?

Male: Always true?

Lecturer: There is no possible situation in  which  what’s  on  the  left-hand

side is true, is all true.

So  what  that’s  telling  you  is  that  that (the formula) is

inconsistent. There is no possible situation in which the

formulae on the left-hand side are all true. So in other words

that must be inconsistent. There is no formula on the right-

hand side, so you can ignore it.

This  one  tells  us  what?  That  says  that  that’s  (the formula) a

contradiction,  so  in  every  possible  world  that’s  false.  That  tells  

us what?

Male: It’s  always  true.

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Lecturer: That  this  is  a  necessary  truth.  So  there’s  no  possible  situation  

in which the formula on the right-hand  side  is  false.  That’s  

always true, in other words. So you can read it in exactly the

same  way.  You  just  haven’t  got  one  of  the  sides  to  worry  

about.

Male: It says answers in your answer booklet on page seven. Are we

still waiting for the answer booklets?

Lecturer: You are, yes. I've got the answer booklets here. I will give

them out. You didn’t  think  I  was  going  to  give  them  to  you.  

(Laughter)

I'm a bit unsure about giving them to you tonight, because you

might  look  up  tomorrow’s  answers.  The  only  thing  is  that  I'm  

absolutely confident that, if you do  look  up  tomorrow’s  answers  

tonight,  they  won’t  mean  anything  to  you.  (Laughter)  

Okay. We’ve  actually  got  five  minutes  for  questions.

Male: Can I just ask a question?

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: I'm very bothered about the rows that you just put dashes in,

how  they  don’t  seem  to  contribute  at  all  to  the  validity,  or  

otherwise, of the argument.

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Lecturer: There are two questions to ask of an argument. Are all the

premises true? Is the argument valid?

Male: Yes.

Lecturer: If  it’s  not  the  case  that  all  the  premises are true, then actually

you're not interested.

Male: Oh, okay, yes.

Lecturer: Let  me  be  careful  about  that.  In  a  truth  table  you’ve  got  all  the  

possible  combinations,  and  that’s  the  important  thing.

Male: Of  ‘P’,  ‘Q’  and  ‘R’,  or  whatever  your  …

Lecturer: Or of whatever your premises are.

Male: But  then  you’ve  got  to  have  all  the  arguments  true?

Lecturer: Not arguments. All the formulae on the left-hand side, i.e. all

the premises, have got to be true, before we are interested in

the truth-value of the conclusion.

Male: If they're not true that contributes towards a dash?

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Lecturer: Yes. Well, that is a dash.

Male: That is a dash?

Lecturer: Yes. So if some of the premises are true, some are false

[cross-talking]  …

Male: Well,  then  you  can’t tell anything about the argument,

basically?

Lecturer: Yes.

Male: Okay.

Female: On page four, the bit at the bottom, where it talks about ‘P’

being false and ‘Q’  being true.

Lecturer: Page four?

Female: Yes. But then ‘if P then Q’ is true. Is there somewhere I can

get  more  information  on  how  that’s  logically  derived?  Because  

I kind of struggle with that intuitively.

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Lecturer: Looking at four.

Female: Page  four.  It’s  the  definitions,  I  think.

Male: It’s  what  we  discussed  earlier.  

Male: The bottom of page four.

Male: ‘If P then Q’ where ‘P’ is false and ‘Q’ is true.

Lecturer: Are you talking about slide fifteen?

Female: Slide eight.

Lecturer: Eight?

Female: I  think  it’s  slide  eight.  

Lecturer: So  it’s  not  page  four.

Male: We’ve  got  two  per side.

Lecturer: Oh, yes, I'm sorry. Give me one with two per side.

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Male: The slide numbers …

Lecturer: Oh, right, the definitions. Sorry, go on. What was the question

again?

Female: I'm just struggling a bit with ‘P’ being false and ‘Q’ being true,

and then ‘if P then Q’ being true as a result. So I was just

wondering  if  there’s  anywhere  I  can  look  up  more  about  the  

logic behind that.

Lecturer: That’s  the  one  that  Kirsten  is  going  to  ask  me  about  in  the  

question and answer time tomorrow. Well, we could do it very

quickly now.

Well,  no,  I  think  it’s  probably  better  to  do  it  tomorrow  in  the  

morning. Because that is very difficult to motivate, and I can

quite see why you're having trouble with it. I will try and

motivate it for you tomorrow.

Female: Thank you.

Male: A few moments ago, when you mentioned Popper, in your

example  previously,  where  there’s  no  counterexample, in his

language that would be not falsifying it?

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Lecturer: No,  it’s  ‘not falsified’.

Male: Not falsified?

Lecturer: Yes. Think of it like this. Think of the logic of investigation, if

you like.

You start here with sightings of white swans. By inductive logic

you start to say, ‘All swans are white.’ Every swan I've ever

seen has been white, therefore by an induction, possibly a

rather bold one, I form a hypothesis that all swans are white.

Then I test that hypothesis by saying, ‘well, if all swans are

white, then anything that is a swan will be white’. Well, of

course  that’s  not  going  to  be  true.  If  I  see  a  black  swan,  that’s  

falsified  that  immediately.  That’s  by  deductive logic. So

deduction falsifies.

So  every  white  swan  I  see  is  not  very  interesting,  because  it’s  

just yet another little confirmation of my hypothesis, for which I

already had – every swan I've ever seen has been white. ‘Oh,

look,  there’s  another  one,  and  another  one,  and  another.  

Yawn.  (Laughter)  There’s  a  green  one.  Now  we’re  talking.’

This  is  really  interesting,  because  once  you’ve  got  a  green  one  

you know that that (the hypothesis) is wrong.

Female: You only need one of them.

Lecturer: You  only  need  one  of  those  and  you’ve  completely  

conclusively falsified that.

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Male: By  knocking  out  the  false  one  …?

Lecturer: Actually,  you  haven’t  quite,  because  the  other  thing.  There’s  

always some interpretation. Because of course you might see

a black swan going up the Swan River, in Perth, and you think,

‘that  can’t  be  a  swan.  It’s  not  white.’ (Laughter)

Male: You could look at it.

Lecturer: Yes. ‘It  looks  like  a  swan,  but  it’s  obviously  not  one,  because  

it’s  not white, and if all swans are white...’

Another one that goes like that is, ‘All women are passive. Mrs.

Thatcher  isn’t  passive.  Therefore  Mrs.  Thatcher ... Well, either

you will falsify your premise and say, ‘It’s  not  the  case  that  all  

women are passive’, or, ‘Mrs.  Thatcher  isn’t  a  woman.’ That’s  

where the joke ‘Mrs. Thatcher is the best man in the Cabinet’

[came from]. (Laughter)

Male: False negatives or false positives. Because a black swan that

you see might be a very dirty white swan!

Lecturer: Well,  but  then  it’s  the  premise  isn’t  true,  is  it?

Male: Well,  you  think  you’ve  found  the  exception  that  allows  you  to  

dispense with the inductive rule that all swans are white.

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Lecturer: No,  that’s  an  – sorry, inductive, you said that, yes.

Male: You think you've found the overturn of that rule, but in fact you

have made an error.

Lecturer: But remember that the deduction tells you that if the premises

are true the conclusion must be true. What you're describing is

a situation where one of the premises isn’t  true.  It’s  not  the  

case  that  this  swan  is  black.  It’s  a  white  swan  that’s  dirty.

Male: But you do get false positives and false negatives  …

Lecturer: Well,  yes,  but  this  doesn’t  change  the  fact  that  if  the  premises  

are true the conclusion must be true,  and  that’s  what  deduction  

gives you.

On  one  side  you’ve  got  induction.  You  form  your  hypothesis  on  

the basis of inductive evidence. Then you use deductive logic

to test ...

Male: To disprove it?

Female: Is there some way of ‘weighting’,  where if it’s  inductive,  if  you  

have seen 50 swans …

Lecturer: Oh, you have to.

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Female: …  And you have another person who has seen 60 swans that

– do you know what I mean? It progresses. It becomes a

statement that is now worth 60 swans.

Lecturer: Well, the reason that science is a collaborative enterprise is

that you're always wanting people to confirm your – you  don’t  

know  whether  it’s  just  happening  in  your  lab,  whether  in  

Australia things are completely different, as indeed they were

with swans.

That’s  why  you want other people to replicate whatever it is

you’ve  concluded,  because  each  replication  is  further  

confirmation.

But  of  course  it  doesn’t  matter  how  often  you  confirm  the  thing,  

you’ve  never  got  certainty,  because  you  never  get  certainty  

with an inductive argument.

Female: You get increasing …

Lecturer: …  you falsify. Well, actually, remind me. I will talk to you, if you

like, if you ask me tomorrow, which would be very nice of you,

about the paradoxes of confirmation. I will talk to you about

black ravens, and white gym shoes, and things like that, and

about grue.  That  will  be  fun  …

Male: This is why scientists eventually stop doing experiments. You

see one white  swan  …

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Male: No.

Male: No, the way you do an experiment is you – the way you do

epidemiology, in clinical trials, is you turn that on its head, and

then seek to...

Lecturer: Well, you do exactly what I...

Male: The epidemiologist would not phrase the question that way. I

think they would phrase the question: ‘There are some swans

that are not white.’ Then they would look at evidence to

discard that hypothesis. They ask the question a very odd way.

It takes a long time to get your head around the way they...

I may be mistranslating this. If you set out to say, ‘My

treatment is better than the gold standard of care’,  that’s  not  

the  question  you  ask.  That’s  what  you  want,  but  that’s  not  the  

question you ask. The question you ask is, ‘Can I find

evidence to reject the idea that my treatment is equivalent to

the gold standard?’

Lecturer: Yes,  but  that’s  exactly  what  I'm  saying.

Male: Which is how they set out to do their experiments.

Lecturer: That’s  exactly  trying  to  falsify  your  hypothesis, which is that

your  treatment  …

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Male: Is the same as.

Lecturer: Either the same as, or better, or whatever  …

Male: They always set out to falsify the idea that the two are

equivalent.

Female: So they're postulating?

Male: If  I'm  getting  this  right,  they’re  falsifying  the opposite of your

hypothesis. Is that what you're saying?

Male: Yes, I think so. I have a bright idea that I can cure cancer, and

the gold standard of care is radiotherapy. So I'm claiming that

my idea is better than radiotherapy.

The way I would phrase the clinical trial is, ‘Radiotherapy is

equivalent to my bright, new idea.’ So I would phrase the

hypothesis, ‘My good idea is the same as radiotherapy’, and

then I would look for statistical evidence to reject that idea, or

fail to reject that idea.

Lecturer: So you would design an experiment or a trial which would

show that P is not  equivalent.  Actually,  you  don’t  want  

equivalent. Radiotherapy is worse than P.

Male: I want to reject the idea the two are equivalent.

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Male: But you design it …

Lecturer: So you can either show that P is better or P is worse? Would

either …

Male: Well, yes, there are statistical tests. There are two different

types of statistical test: one of which will show you which way,

and the other which just says, ‘They're not equivalent.’

Lecturer: Sadly, as nobody ever publishes negative results, we will

never actually know whether you succeeded in showing this.

Male: That depends whether you work for the university or

[inaudible]. (Laughter)

Male: A  physicist  would  publish  the  negative  results.  That’s  all  

they're interested in doing is publishing …

Lecturer: Well, they’d get it put in a journal.

Male: When they discovered that neutrinos went faster than the

speed of light, that got published, whereas ...

Lecturer: Well, yes, but...

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Male: It was completely wrong, but when they were promoting …

Lecturer: And took a long, long time before they agreed that they had

published  it  and  they  probably  shouldn’t  have  done.

Male: Oh,  yes.  That’s  also  true  …

Lecturer: Well, they wanted to get everybody working on what  they’d  

done wrong.

Male: Well, they just wanted to know what they had done wrong.

They knew they had got something wrong, but they had no

idea what it was.

Lecturer: Let’s  go,  because  it’s  well  after  time,  and  I  need  to  go  home.

(Slide 49).