Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9707-y
“A sky of brass and burning winds”: documentaryevidence of rainfall variability in the Kingdomof Lesotho, Southern Africa, 1824–1900
David J. Nash · Stefan W. Grab
Received: 13 February 2008 / Accepted: 27 August 2009 / Published online: 17 October 2009© Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract Forecasting austral summer rainfall in southern Africa is hampered by alack of long-term instrumental data. This paper extends the historical record forthe subcontinent by presenting the first extensive 19th century climate history forLesotho derived from documentary evidence. The data sources included unpublishedEnglish-, French- and Sesotho-language materials archived in Lesotho, South Africaand the UK. These included letters, journals and reports written by missionaries andcolonial authorities, which were supplemented by newspapers, diaries, traveloguesand other historical sources. Each source was read in chronological order, withany climate information recorded verbatim. Observations were classified into fivecategories (Very Wet, Relatively Wet, ‘Normal’, Relatively Dry, and Very Dry)based upon the predominant documented climate during each ‘rain-year’ (Julyto June). The latter portion of the chronology was then compared for accuracyagainst available instrumental precipitation records from Maseru (1886–1900). Theresults yield a semi-continuous record of climate information from 1824 to 1900.Data are restricted to lowland areas, but reveal drought episodes in 1833–34, 1841–42, 1845–47, 1848–51, 1858–63, 1865–69, 1876–80, 1882–85 and 1895–99 (the mostsevere drought years being 1850–51 and 1862–63) and wet periods or floods in1835–36, 1838–41, 1847–48, 1854–56, 1863–65, 1873–75, 1880–81, 1885–86 and 1890–94. The rainfall chronology is compared with similar records for South Africa,
D. J. Nash (B)School of Environment & Technology,University of Brighton, Brighton, BN2 4GJ, UKe-mail: [email protected]
D. J. Nash · S. W. GrabSchool of Geography, Archaeology & Environmental Studies,University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3,Johannesburg, 2050, South Africa
S. W. Grabe-mail: [email protected]
618 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Botswana and Zimbabwe. Linkages to possible forcing mechanisms, including ENSOteleconnections and historical coral-derived southwest Indian Ocean sea surfacetemperature variations are also explored.
1 Introduction
Rainfall over much of southern Africa is highly variable both in space and time.This has major implications for human livelihoods, particularly for those areas whererural populations are reliant upon rain-fed agriculture (e.g. Richardson et al. 2007;Tadesse et al. 2008). The ability to forecast austral summer rainfall is consideredcritical to improving food security and human health in these regions (e.g. Hydén2002; Thomson et al. 2005; Shongwe et al. 2006; Renzaho 2007), yet the instrumentalprecipitation data required as inputs for such forecasts are only available fromthe early 1900s onwards for much of the subcontinent. Much can be learnt aboutpast climatic variability, however, through the construction of proxy rainfall timeseries, such as the 19th century chronologies derived for South Africa, Botswana andNamibia from documentary evidence (e.g. Nicholson 1981, 1989, 1995, 2001; Vogel1988a, b, 1989; Lindesay and Vogel 1990; Nash 1996; Endfield and Nash 2002a; Nashand Endfield 2002a, b, 2008; Kelso and Vogel 2007) and for Zimbabwe from analysesof tree rings (e.g. Fichtler et al. 2004; Therrell et al. 2006).
Previous studies suggest that large areas of southern Africa experienced droughtconditions during the years 1820–21, 1825–27, 1834, 1860–62, 1874–75, 1880–83 and1894–96 (Kelso and Vogel 2007), with an additional dry period from the early- tomid-1840s affecting the Kalahari and Zimbabwe (Nash and Endfield 2002a; Therrellet al. 2006). Of these dry episodes, the 1860–62 drought appears to have beenthe most pronounced (Therrell et al. 2006; Nash and Endfield 2008), whilst drierperiods in the early-1820s, late-1850s to late-1860s, and early- to mid-1880s werethe most widespread and may even have affected parts of Angola, Namibia andZambia (Nash and Endfield 2002b). Wetter episodes are less well-correlated acrossthe subcontinent, but appear to have occurred in the late 1820s, early- to mid-1850s,early- and mid-1870s, and late-1890s, with a further period of above-average rainfallin Zimbabwe during the 1830s (Therrell et al. 2006).
Despite these advances in our understanding of historical climates, there are stilllarge areas of southern Africa for which information about past rainfall variability islacking, particularly for periods preceding reliable instrumentation. One such area isthe topographically diverse kingdom of Lesotho (Fig. 1), which has a distinct tropicalmountain climate (Sene et al. 1998). The systematic collection of meteorologicaldata in Lesotho started in Maseru, Mafeteng and Leribe in 1886 and was extendedto other settlements from 1892 onwards. Available data can be obtained from theSouth African Weather Service and Lesotho Meteorological Services. However,rainfall records for the late 1880s and most of the 1890s are fragmented andincomplete. There have been attempts to use documentary sources to investigateclimate variability in Lesotho prior to the period of instrumentation, but these studiesfocus upon either specific climate events (e.g. major drought episodes; Eldredge1993) or time periods (e.g. climate variability from 1885 onwards; Showers 2005).The aim of this paper is to present the first extensive document-derived climate re-construction for Lesotho, spanning the period 1824–1900. The primary data sources
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 619
Fig. 1 Locations for which historical evidence of climatic and other environmental conditions wereobtained. The contemporary boundary of Lesotho is indicated along with selected spot heights inmetres asl
are English-, French- and Sesotho-language materials, including archived letters,journals and reports written by missionaries and colonial authorities. These areused to construct sequences of annual rainfall variability which are then comparedwith similar records for South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe. Finally, possibleforcing mechanisms, including teleconnections associated with the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and southwest Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variations,are considered.
2 Climate and environment of Lesotho
The landscape of Lesotho can be divided into three distinct topozones. In the westare the Lesotho ‘lowlands’, an undulating plateau surface bordering the plains of the
620 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
eastern Free State of South Africa, with an average elevation of 1,750 m. These risevia a series of foothills to the Maluti ranges and finally the Drakensberg mountainswhich reach 3,482 m at their highest point on the eastern border with South Africa.
Lesotho is situated within the southern African summer rainfall zone and has a dis-tinct rainy season from October–April (Tyson 1986). Typically, 80% of the annualprecipitation falls during this period, mainly from thunderstorms and instabilityshowers (Sene et al. 1998), with peak rainfall from December–February. Wintersare dry, cold and dominated by high-pressure systems, with minimum rainfall inJune–July. Snow falls annually during the winter over the highlands and sometimesthe lowlands following the passage of southerly polar cyclones. Rainfall distributionis strongly influenced by topographic variations (Sene et al. 1998). Rainfall in thelowlands averages 735 mm pa, with annual totals ranging from 426–1,097 mm duringthe period of instrumentation (Hydén 2002). Precipitation levels in the Drakensbergmountains reach an estimated 1,600 mm pa (Sene et al. 1998), although Nel andSumner (2005) report annual totals of only 750 mm for 2002/2003 in the KwaZulu-Natal Drakensberg, suggesting that this earlier assessment may be an over-exaggeration.
The major causes of seasonal rainfall variability, both in Lesotho and across thesouthern African summer rainfall zone as a whole, are changes in the frequency,duration and intensity of large-scale, rain-bearing weather systems (Mason andJury 1997). Amongst the most significant rainfall contributors are NW–SE alignedtropical-temperate troughs and their associated cloud bands (e.g. Harrison 1984;Washington and Todd 1999; Todd et al. 2004; Williams et al. 2007). Widespread sum-mer rainfall normally occurs when the semi-permanent surface-low located abovesouthern Africa is situated over the Namibia–Angola border (Tyson 1986). Underthis configuration, easterly tropical air masses are drawn inland from the southwestIndian Ocean whilst westerly systems bring in moisture from the southeast Atlantic;where these air masses converge, widespread rainfall usually results. Rainfall maybe particularly heavy over Lesotho if the cloud band only extends as far polewardsas eastern South Africa (Usman and Reason 2004). When the surface-low is overMozambique, rainfall is more likely to occur over Madagascar (Reason 1998), whilsta position over the Mozambique Channel may promote good rains over the easternhalf of southern Africa and poor rains to the west (Usman and Reason 2004).Tropical-temperate troughs contribute to rainfall mainly during the latter half of theaustral summer (Walker and Lindesay 1989). The heaviest early- and late-seasonrainfall is usually associated with the development of cut-off lows or deep west-coasttroughs (Mason and Jury 1997). Cut-off lows have a high interannual variability andare largely responsible for rainfall variability during transition seasons, especiallyMarch (Dyer 1982). The potential drivers of interannual rainfall variability arediscussed in Section 5.
3 Data sources and methods
3.1 Documentary sources
The primary sources (Table 1) used in this study were documents written by mis-sionaries and government officials who lived, worked and travelled in Lesotho and
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 621
Table 1 Details of primary documentary sources and referencing codes used in the text
Code Details of source Location
PEMS Unpublished letters written by missionaries School of Oriental and Africanworking for the Paris Evangelical Studies, University of London,Missionary Society; code followed by AA UK (microfiche)(Afrique Australe series) or LES(Lesotho series) plus microfiche boxnumber and microfiche number.
WMMS SA Unpublished Correspondence and Synod School of Oriental and AfricanMinutes written by missionaries working Studies, University of London,for the Wesleyan Methodist Missionary UK (microfiche)Society; code followed by microfichebox number and microfiche number.
USPG Unpublished materials written by Bodleian Library of Commonwealthmissionaries working for the Society and African Studies at Rhodesfor the Propagation of the Gospel in House, University of Oxford, UKForeign Parts (now the United Societyfor the Propagation of the Gospel);code followed by D (for letters sent to theUK from Africa) or E (for annual reportsby missionaries) and a volume number.
LNA Annual Reports and Blue Books for Lesotho National Archive, Maseru,Basutoland; plus official Diaries written Lesothoby the Resident Commissioner; IncomingLetters from various districts; OutgoingLetters from government offices (allfollowed by archive catalogue number)
GLD Diaries written by Sir Godfrey Lagden, Bodleian Library of Commonwealthcolonial government official, based in and African Studies at RhodesMaseru, Lesotho House, University of Oxford, UK
Newspapers Various newspapers published in Lesotho, Morija Museum and Archives,including Leselinyana la Lesotho, Morija, LesothoLittle Light of Basutoland and LitabaTsa Lilemo
Books Numerous books, including annual Various locationscolonial reports, Blue Books andparliamentary papers
neighbouring parts of South Africa during the nineteenth century. These materialsdate from the 1820s following the arrival of the earliest European missionaries in theregion, and provide the only written record of the environment of Lesotho at thistime. Many documents contain significant details about local climatic variability andthe occurrence of events such as droughts and floods, particularly where these poseda threat to livelihoods or affected communication routes.
The most important materials were the collections of unpublished reports and let-ters sent from and between mission stations established by the Wesleyan MethodistMissionary Society (WMMS), Société des Missions Evangéliques de Paris (ParisEvangelical Missionary Society; PEMS) and the Society for the Propagation of theGospel in Foreign Parts (SPG), now part of the United Society for the Propagation
622 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
of the Gospel (USPG). The majority of letters were date- and place-specific, makingthem very useful for identifying temporal and spatial variations in environmentalconditions. The reports, in contrast, were mostly quarterly or annual summaries andrequired more careful analysis to identify the specific timing of climatic events andtheir potential impacts. Many of the documents were written by missionaries whohad lived in Lesotho for many years and can be considered reliable observers ofinter-annual climate variability. Individuals such as the SPG missionary Rev. JohnWiddicombe, who worked at the Thaba ‘Nchu and Thlotse mission stations from1870 until his retirement in 1908, were even in a position to comment on inter-decadal changes. Letters and reports sent to and from colonial government officesduring the late nineteenth century were also consulted. These contain annual, and insome cases quarterly, accounts of harvest quality, road conditions and weather eventswritten by District Commissioners. The daily diaries of the Resident Commissioner,Sir Godfrey Lagden, for 1884–1900 were also analysed.
Published sources included numerous British colonial reports1 which containedsummary information derived from the unpublished District Commissioners’ reportsdescribed above in addition to annual reports on harvest quality and communica-tions. A range of books were also analysed, including personal accounts of life andtravel in Lesotho, biographies based on personal letters and journals, and moregeneral histories of the region.2 Finally, late nineteenth century newspapers werescrutinised at the Morija Museum and Archives, including the Sesotho-languageperiodical Leselinyana la Lesotho which was first published in a monthly format in1863 and switched to a fortnightly version in 1885.
3.2 Data collection and analysis
The documents detailed above were analysed using the method described in Nashand Endfield (2002a); as such, only the key features are given here. Where possible,each of the sources were read in chronological order, with all observations aboutthe environment or descriptions of climate-related events recorded verbatim (and,for French- and Sesotho-language materials, translated subsequently into English).These included comments about short-term weather variations or the state of com-munications networks, together with indicators of longer-term climatic variabilitysuch as observations of prolonged drier or wetter periods, changes in harvest qual-ity/quantity and fluctuations in local river levels. Descriptions of weather phenom-ena, river levels and road conditions were used as direct evidence of local or regionalclimatic conditions. Accounts of harvest levels required more careful treatment, since
1These included Great Britain (1853a, b, 1857, 1869, 1881a, b, 1882, 1884, 1886a, b, c, 1889, 1890,1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1898, 1899) and (1901) and Colony of Cape of Good Hope (1860,1862, 1863, 1874, 1875a, b, 1876a, b, 1877, 1878, 1879, 1880a, b, 1881, 1882, 1885, 1886) and (1899).2Books consulted included various biographies (e.g. Backhouse 1844; Freeman 1851; King 1853;Gray 1876; Lucas 1878; Casalis 1889; Widdicombe 1891, 1895; Barkly 1894; Balfour 1895; Collins1907; MacIntosh 1907; Cumming 1909; Lagden 1909; Montgomery 1925; Headlam 1931; Kirby1939, 1965; Arbousset and Daumas 1968; Lye 1975; Arbousset 1991; Smith 1996) and historicalmonographs (e.g. Sauer and Theal 1883; Theal 1908; Ellenberger 1912; Tylden 1950; Germond 1967;Danziger 1979).
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 623
yields could be impacted upon by the failure of rains at a number of points duringthe sowing and growing season. For example, a description such as “. . . despite thedrought, the inhabitants were quite happy and had a good harvest. . . ” (PEMS AAFBN1 Mf.45. Daumas, F., Mekoatleng, 10 May 1838) was taken to indicate thatsufficient rain had fallen during the austral spring and early summer to permit sowingbut that intermittent drought had occurred during other parts of the growing season.Contextual material was also noted, so that it was possible to identify, for example,whether a reduction in food availability was climatically- and/or socially-driven. Thetiming of environmental phenomena was in most cases identifiable to within thenearest month. However, where a lag between the occurrence and documentationof an event was suspected, contextual material was used to allow the timing to bemore tightly constrained.
Records from each of the sources were compiled according to the month/year inwhich the observed phenomena occurred. In the case of most letters, journals andquarterly reports this was a relatively straightforward process. Some annual records,however, only permitted the identification of seasonal patterns. To determine varia-tions in the relative level of annual precipitation, the ordered records were analysedaccording to ‘rain-year’ (i.e. July to June, spanning the austral summer months), withrainfall levels qualitatively categorised as: very wet; relatively wet; ‘normal’ (seasonalrains); relatively dry; and very dry. These classes were selected for comparability withprevious studies of historical rainfall variability (Vogel 1988a, b, 1989; Lindesay andVogel 1990; Endfield and Nash 2002a; Nash and Endfield 2002a, 2008; Kelso andVogel 2007); their characteristics are discussed in Section 3.3.
The resulting annual climate classification for the rain-years 1824–25 to 1899–1900 is presented in Table 2 and Fig. 2a. Table 2 also includes details of signif-icant climate ‘events’ noted by observers, plus confidence ratings for each year’sclassification (following Kelso and Vogel 2007). A rating of 1 indicates that therainfall classification is questionable, normally because only the impacts of a climaticcondition were noted by observers rather than the specific climatic condition itself. Incontrast, a rating of 3 was awarded when a number of observers referred to a climaticcondition and the dates/locations of those observations were highly specific. Theclimate classification was compared against instrumental rainfall records for Maserufor 1886–1900 (Table 3) to check its accuracy. Gaps in the instrumental record werefilled, where data were available, using daily rainfall measurements for Maseru con-tained within document LNA S3/1/11/1 held in the Lesotho National Archive. Thecomparison revealed agreement between the chronology and measured precipitationin 7 of the 10 rain-years for which complete (≥11 months of instrumental data)records are available, suggesting that the approach is robust. Where discrepanciesoccur, they can be attributed to either missing data (e.g. no data are available forFebruary of the relatively wet 1891–92 rain-year) or seasonal anomalies (Kelso andVogel 2007). Significantly, all of the nineteenth century drought episodes in Lesothoindependently identified by Eldredge (1993) fall within the drought years describedhere. It is important to note that the climate classification presented here is designedto summarise conditions across Lesotho, whilst instrumental data are site specificand subject to the spatial variability typical of a tropical mountainous region. Thiscan be seen through a comparison of rainfall data for Maseru (Table 3) and AliwalNorth (Table 4) in the southwest of the study area. The data show good agreement inrelative rainfall levels for some years but marked differences in others. For example,
624 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Table 2 Annual climate summary data for 1824–1900 (CR indicates confidence rating)
Rain-year Average rainfall conditions CR Notes on specific weather events
1824–25 Normal 1 Late heavy rains1825–26 Unclassified – No unusual events1826–27 Relatively wet 2 Spring and early summer drought; very heavy
Jan rains1827–28 Unclassified – No unusual events1828–29 Unclassified – No unusual events1829–30 Relatively wet 2 Heavy rains in Mar 18301830–31 Unclassified – No unusual events1831–32 Relatively dry 1 Relatively dry summer months1832–33 Relatively wet 3 Heavy late summer rains1833–34 Very dry 3 Severe midsummer drought (Oct–Feb); rains
in Mar/Apr1834–35 Relatively wet 3 2.5 cm snow at Phillopolis, Aug 1834; heavy
summer rains1835–36 Very wet 3 Very heavy summer rains; hailstorm at Morija,
Jan 18361836–37 Normal 2 No unusual events;1837–38 Relatively dry 3 Drought in early summer; heavy late summer
rains1838–39 Very wet 3 Very heavy summer rains1839–40 Normal 3 No unusual events1840–41 Very wet 3 Very heavy summer rains; Orange River
flooded and other widespread reportsof flooding elsewhere
1841–42 Very dry 3 Severe drought until Feb 18421842–43 Relatively dry 3 Snow NE of Mparane, Aug 1842; drought in
early summer then heavy late rains1843–44 Relatively wet 3 Heavy summer rains, especially during
late summer1844–45 Normal 1 No unusual events1845–46 Relatively dry 3 Heavy early summer rains followed by late
summer drought1846–47 Relatively dry 2 Early summer rain then midsummer drought1847–48 Very wet 3 Very heavy early and late summer rains1848–49 Relatively dry 3 Summer drought period followed by heavy
late rains1849–50 Relatively dry 3 Summer drought1850–51 Very dry 3 Severe summer drought1851–52 Normal 3 ‘Hurricane’ in Morija, Jul 1851; drought in early
summer; heavy rains during remainder ofseason
1852–53 Relatively dry 3 Heavy rain in early summer; midsummerdrought; late rains
1853–54 Normal 3 No unusual events1854–55 Very wet 3 Very heavy summer rains, especially Dec 18541855–56 Relatively wet 3 Heavy early summer rains1856–57 Normal 3 No unusual events1857–58 Normal 2 No unusual events1858–59 Relatively dry 3 Early summer rain; midsummer drought;
moderate late rain1859–60 Normal 2 No unusual events
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 625
Table 2 (continued)
Rain-year Average rainfall conditions CR Notes on specific weather events
1860–61 Relatively dry 3 Early summer drought; heavy rains in Dec1861–62 Relatively dry 3 Hurricane in Morija, Aug 1861; spring/early
summer drought1862–63 Very dry 3 Severe and widespread drought; ‘tornado’ in
Morija, early 1863; late summer rains1863–64 Very wet 3 Very heavy widespread summer rains1864–65 Very wet 3 Very heavy summer rains1865–66 Relatively dry 3 Early summer drought1866–67 Normal 3 Early summer rains delayed; otherwise no
unusual events1867–68 Relatively dry 3 Summer drought but good late rains1868–69 Relatively dry 3 Early summer drought then good rains1869–70 Normal 2 No unusual events1870–71 Relatively wet 2 Heavy summer rains1871–72 Normal 2 Cold winter; otherwise no unusual events1872–73 Relatively dry 3 Summer drought; late rains1873–74 Relatively wet 3 Spring drought; very heavy summer rains
(Jan to Mar)1874–75 Relatively wet 3 Spring/early summer drought; heavy summer
rain1875–76 Normal 3 Dry spring; reasonable summer rains1876–77 Relatively dry 3 Midsummer drought; reasonable late rains1877–78 Very dry 3 Heavy early summer rains; widespread damage
from ‘hurricane’, Nov 1877; severe midsummerdrought; reasonable late rains
1878–79 Relatively dry 3 Early summer drought; rain in Jan–Feb;relatively wet winter
1879–80 Relatively dry 3 Early summer drought; late summer rains1880–81 Very wet 3 Very heavy early and midsummer rains1881–82 Normal 3 Midsummer drought followed by good rains1882–83 Relatively dry 2 Spring and early summer drought1883–84 Very dry 3 Widespread severe drought during spring and
summer1884–85 Very dry 3 Severe drought in spring and summer; ‘tornado’
in Maseru, 31 Dec 1884; reasonable late rains1885–86 Very wet 3 Very heavy spring and summer rains1886–87 Normal 3 Dry spring and summer; reasonable late rains1887–88 Relatively wet 3 Good spring and summer rains1888–89 Normal 3 No unusual events1889–90 Relatively dry 3 Severe gales in Quthing, 30 Jul 1889; spring and
early summer drought; ‘whirlwind’ at Masite,4 Dec 1889; reasonable late rains
1890–91 Very wet 3 Extremely heavy summer rains from Deconwards
1891–92 Relatively wet 3 Heavy summer rains1892–93 Relatively wet 3 Heavy autumn rains1893–94 Relatively wet 3 Above average summer rains1894–95 Normal 2 No unusual events1895–96 Relatively dry 3 Spring and early summer drought; some
summer rains1896–97 Relatively dry 3 Spring/summer drought; heavy rain in Jan 1897
626 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Table 2 (continued)
Rain-year Average rainfall conditions CR Notes on specific weather events
1897–98 Relatively dry 3 Spring/summer drought; heavy rain in Dec/Jan1898–99 Relatively dry 3 Severe winter; spring/summer drought;
reasonable late rain1899–1900 Normal 3 No unusual events
Note: Following Kelso and Vogel (2007), a confidence rating of 1 is shown when the rainfall conditionassigned was questionable, normally because only the impacts of a climatological condition werenoted but not the condition itself. A confidence rating of 2 indicates that a particular rainfallcondition was categorically mentioned in at least one source with a clear and accurate date and placegiven. A confidence rating of 3 is shown when a number of references note a specific climatologicalcondition and these references are date and place specific; these are periods when past rainfallconditions can be identified with the greatest confidence
in 1893–94, Maseru received 214.9 mm rainfall above the 1886–1900 mean whilstAliwal North received 106.4 mm below the mean for its weather station (1883–1900data).
Fig. 2 a Document-derived summary chronology of average rainfall conditions in Lesotho andsurrounding areas of South Africa between the rain-years of 1824–25 and 1899–1900. b Approximatetiming of ENSO warm events of varying relative strength based upon Quinn and Neal’s (1995)general chronology and Ortlieb’s (2000) alternative chronology for Peru. VS, S, M and W indicatevery strong, strong, moderate and weak events respectively, with +/− signs indicating relativeintensity and ? indicating any uncertainties over the relative intensity of an event. c Bimonthly (thinline) and annual July–June mean (heavy line) variations in δ18O recorded in the Ifaty-4 coral recordfrom southwest Madagascar covering the period 1824–1900 (after Zinke et al. 2004, data downloadedfrom http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo /coral/madagascar.html). Major drought periods are indicatedby lighter shaded bars to permit a direct comparison between the rainfall chronology, sequence ofENSO events and the δ18O record
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 627
Tab
le3
Com
pari
son
ofdo
cum
ent-
deri
ved
rain
fall
chro
nolo
gyw
ith
inst
rum
enta
lrai
nfal
ldat
a(m
m)
for
Mas
eru
(sta
tion
0263
859-
3)
Rai
n-ye
arC
lass
ifica
tion
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Tot
als
Dev
.
1886
–87
Nor
mal
––
18.3
28.3
44.3
139.
318
.920
3.7
98.2
78.1
58.3
4.4
Inc.
Inc.
1887
–88
Rel
ativ
ely
wet
44.7
37.9
16.1
45.8
38.6
133.
115
0.6
–16
0.3
–28
.09.
3In
c.In
c.18
88–8
9N
orm
al33
.039
.425
.159
.143
.381
.665
.020
8.3
44.7
105.
223
.82.
873
1.3
−25.
318
89–9
0R
elat
ivel
ydr
y0.
0–
––
––
––
––
––
Inc.
Inc.
1890
–91
Ext
rem
ely
wet
––
––
––
197.
660
.514
6.6
81.8
108.
737
.6In
c.In
c.18
91–9
2R
elat
ivel
yw
et0.
03.
63.
639
.613
5.9
87.9
111.
0–
109.
534
.016
.334
.557
5.8
−180
.718
92–9
3R
elat
ivel
yw
et0.
034
.065
.513
7.7
142.
587
.626
0.6
50.9
102.
351
.60.
346
.497
9.5
222.
918
93–9
4R
elat
ivel
yw
et19
31.3
73.7
66.0
165.
116
4.1
114.
915
9.2
108.
931
.832
.15.
497
1.5
214.
918
94–9
5N
orm
al0.
018
.8–
45.2
78.0
89.2
83.0
247.
924
9.0
49.3
59.1
0.0
919.
416
2.9
1895
–96
Rel
ativ
ely
dry
17.8
0.0
0.0
4.6
83.8
220
43.9
90.7
47.8
78.5
72.6
21.8
681.
5−7
5.0
1896
–97
Rel
ativ
ely
dry
–67
.30.
013
.740
.919
1.8
176.
343
.412
1.2
35.1
5.3
0.0
694.
9−6
1.6
1897
–98
Rel
ativ
ely
dry
0.0
0.8
2.0
66.5
1.8
66.5
284.
013
0.8
62.2
75.7
43.9
0.0
734.
3−2
2.2
1898
–99
Rel
ativ
ely
dry
0.0
4.0
73.7
60.2
62.0
68.1
110.
830
.946
.874
.138
.029
.559
8.1
−158
.518
99–1
900
Nor
mal
80.3
41.4
13.9
86.0
21.3
86.3
140.
251
.860
.473
.50.
024
.167
9.2
−77.
4
Dat
ain
plai
nte
xtw
ere
supp
lied
byth
eSo
uth
Afr
ican
Wea
ther
Serv
ice.
Dat
ain
ital
ics
wer
eca
lcul
ated
from
daily
reco
rds
for
Janu
ary
1891
toJu
ne19
02co
ntai
ned
wit
hin
NL
Ado
cum
entS
3/1/
11/1
.Tot
als
are
only
show
nif
≥11
mon
ths
rain
fall
data
are
avai
labl
e–
mis
sing
data
,Inc
.inc
ompl
ete
data
for
rain
-yea
r,D
ev.d
evia
tion
ofto
talf
rom
mea
n
628 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Tab
le4
Inst
rum
enta
lrai
nfal
ldat
a(m
m)
for
Aliw
alN
orth
(sta
tion
0175
371-
9)fo
rth
epe
riod
1883
–190
0(c
ourt
esy
ofth
eSo
uth
Afr
ican
Wea
ther
Serv
ice)
Rai
n-ye
arJu
lA
ugSe
pO
ctN
ovD
ecJa
nF
ebM
arA
prM
ayJu
nT
otal
sD
ev.
1882
–83
aa
aa
aa
aa
aa
a0.
0In
c.In
c.18
83–8
412
.127
.324
.026
.912
8.2
11.0
87.6
50.2
aa
aa
Inc.
Inc.
1884
–85
0.0
0.0
20.8
aa
9.2
37.4
75.0
70.6
35.6
36.5
0.3
285.
4In
c.18
85–8
60.
018
.311
2.8
18.1
47.4
96.0
53.7
59.0
96.6
106.
05.
48.
762
2.0
−14.
318
86–8
733
.015
.02.
122
.47.
811
1.5
55.2
214.
894
.065
.756
.43.
168
1.0
44.8
1887
–88
60.2
60.3
11.7
30.7
51.3
81.1
73.1
76.4
104.
181
.934
.39.
067
4.1
37.8
1888
–89
0.5
69.8
31.5
22.6
42.2
28.6
124.
521
1.9
52.5
46.3
16.0
2.8
649.
212
.918
89–9
00.
03.
80.
346
.184
.557
.270
.110
5.9
66.0
92.7
29.8
14.7
571.
1−6
5.2
1890
–91
0.8
19.3
0.0
65.8
59.8
158.
797
.383
.019
3.3
64.8
62.9
86.0
891.
725
5.5
1891
–92
75.5
79.1
25.4
5.3
84.6
64.5
109.
147
.114
8.5
46.6
18.8
34.5
739.
010
2.8
1892
–93
5.3
16.2
71.6
64.4
40.5
47.5
103.
166
.811
5.6
29.8
0.5
20.6
581.
9−5
4.4
1893
–94
16.0
29.0
36.3
21.8
122.
648
.594
.841
.461
.216
.735
.26.
452
9.9
−106
.418
94–9
50.
021
.633
.881
.611
2.8
39.9
77.5
151.
455
.610
3.7
29.0
0.0
706.
970
.718
95–9
616
.82.
516
.32.
055
.023
5.6
14.2
68.6
68.0
15.0
104.
98.
960
7.8
−28.
518
96–9
70.
075
.80.
00.
013
.219
8.9
102.
352
.646
.117
.111
.40.
051
7.4
−118
.918
97–9
80.
010
.50.
020
.10.
020
.330
9.0
98.4
23.6
30.2
16.8
0.0
528.
9−1
07.4
1898
–99
0.0
0.0
0.0
94.5
65.1
17.3
33.8
98.8
161.
482
.721
.831
.260
6.6
−29.
718
99–1
900
32.5
25.9
14.7
69.4
aa
0.0b
0.0b
0.0b
46.8
8.4
21.1
Inc.
Inc.
Not
e:T
otal
sar
eon
lysh
own
if≥1
1m
onth
sra
infa
llda
taar
eav
aila
ble
Inc.
inco
mpl
ete
data
for
rain
-yea
r,D
ev.d
evia
tion
ofto
talf
rom
mea
na M
issi
ngda
tabP
roba
bly
inac
cura
teda
ta
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 629
3.3 Data and methodological limitations
Three issues must be noted before the results of this study can be considered. First,there are spatial constraints imposed by the limited availability of documentaryevidence for the earlier part of the century (Fig. 3). The earliest written accountsof climate and environment in the study area were from the WMMS mission stationat Platberg; all documentary evidence for 1824–1832 was from this station and it wasnot until the arrival of PEMS missionaries at Morija in 1833 that observations frommultiple locations became available. Even then, observations tend to be restricted tothe western part of the study area until the mid 19th century. The temporal resolutionof data is also variable (Fig. 4). For example, several rain-years during the 1820sare unclassified owing to a lack of documentary evidence or the availability of onlyinconclusive information. In contrast, the classification of rain-years from the 1830sonwards is based upon a greater number of observations. Figure 2 and Table 2 musttherefore be interpreted with this in mind.
Fig. 3 Locations (innorth–south order) for whichrainfall-related climate dataare available during the 19thcentury. Years wheredescriptions of more generalconditions across the studyarea are available are noted atthe bottom of the figure
630 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Fig. 4 Temporal variations in the numbers of references to rainfall-related phenomena used in thisstudy
Second, there are issues of data reliability (Duncan 1997; Endfield and Nash2002a). Whilst the descriptions of environmental conditions contained within doc-uments are mostly eye-witness testimonies, all observations necessarily reflect thepositionality of the observers as well as their intended audience. For example,individual observers may describe environmental conditions for a specific time andplace very differently (Duncan and Gregory 1999). This may, in part, be influencedby their nationality, background and experience of conditions in the study area.Climatic conditions were frequently described in terms of their difference to thosein their home country. As ‘home’ was, for most observers, wetter than Lesotho,it is possible that wet conditions were regarded as more ‘normal’ and were under-reported (Bryson and Padoch 1980). All accounts of individual climatic events wereread with an awareness of these potential subjectivities.
Finally, there are issues regarding the classification of rain-years. Precipitationlevels vary across Lesotho and adjacent areas of South Africa, so that descriptions ofdrought or wet conditions at specific sites can only be considered a relative indicationof rainfall quantity. This is a minor problem for this study since the majority of ob-servations were made at lowland sites which have similar average annual rainfall andbroadly comparable temperature ranges. Potential difficulties were circumvented bytriangulating between observers. Only the years where extreme events were reportedby a number of observers were classed as very wet or very dry. Normal yearswere identified only where observers specifically commented that rainfall had beenunremarkable or there was no reference to unusually high or low rainfall. In rare
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 631
instances, rain-years were classed as normal owing to drier conditions in one part ofthe year being offset by a wetter period. For example, the onset of seasonal rains inlate 1866 was delayed, with Rev. Mabille of the PEMS Morija mission noting in aletter dated 24 August 1866:
Moreover the drought is severe. The Natives hasten to sow before the usualtime, but there is no rain. A sky of brass and burning winds from the Kalaharithreaten a recurrence of the great drought of 1862 (Smith 1996, p.162).
By October 1866, however, “the crops were very forward” (ibid, p.167), suggestingthat reasonable rainfall had occurred. Where such variations occur, they are noted inTable 2. Years were classified as relatively wet or dry when wetter or drier conditionswere reported but these were of insufficient severity to be considered ‘extreme’.For example, the 1852–53 rain-year was classed as relatively dry because, despitethe occurrence of brief heavy rains in December 1852 (PEMS AA FBN3 Mf.145,Gosselin, C., Bethesda, 29 April 1853), dry conditions prevailed through much of theremaining summer rainy season.
4 Results
4.1 Evidence for drier periods
A total of nine periods of drier than normal conditions were identified from thedocumentary record; these included the years 1833–34, 1841–42, 1845–47, 1848–51, 1858–63, 1865–69, 1876–80, 1882–85 and 1895–99. These are in addition to thedrought phases in 1800–03, 1812 and 1816–18 identified from documentary sources byEldredge (1993). The known spatial extent of each drought episode can be identifiedfrom Fig. 3. The earliest, short-lived, drought episode commenced during the firsthalf of the 1833–34 rain-year. Evidence is mainly available from the western part ofthe study area. Conditions in western Lesotho were relatively dry from at least July1833 onwards, with the PEMS missionary Rev. Casalis noting:
You will have seen from my map that the road I took when returning from theland of the Bassoutos in July was extremely indirect as the lack of water forcedme to push north west much more than necessary in order to reach Philippolisvia the Caledon station (PEMS AA FBN1 Mf.12, Casalis, E., Morija, 4 October1833).
Drought then occurred from October 1833 until mid-January 1834, only punctu-ated by occasional storms. The drought appears to have been caused by reducedrainfall during the austral spring and early summer; Rev. Rolland of Morija, forexample, noted that “the rains from the first season [i.e. the spring rains] havebeen completely lacking” (PEMS AA FBN1 Mf.17. Rolland, S., Caledon Station,25 March 1834). The drought resulted in severe water shortages in many areas. Themissionary Rev. Arbousset described the situation at Morija in a letter to the PEMSheadquarters in Paris in early 1834:
The last three months of the year which have just passed were accompanied bytwo types of ordeals equally severe and distressing, but now dissipated by the
632 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
grace of God. On one hand we have seen one of our springs dry up completelyand the other to deteriorate imperceptibly by the effects of an extraordinarydrought which has exerted its fatal influence on these lands up to Littakou[Kuruman, South Africa] (PEMS AA FBN1 Mf.14, Arbousset, Th., Morija, 28January 1834).
From this letter, the drought appears to have broken in late January or earlyFebruary 1834, after which the region experienced reasonable levels of precipitationfor the remainder of the rainy season.
A further short but intense drought affected western Lesotho in 1841–42. Thisfollowed a similar pattern to the 1833–34 drought, whereby the early summer rainsfailed and reasonable levels of rainfall only occurred in the latter half of the rain-year. Germond (1967, p.441) quotes a letter written by PEMS missionary Rev. Dykeof Thaba Bosiu in April 1842 which describes the typical pattern of events:
Instead of the copious rains which in this country usually fall during the monthsof October and November, at which period the seed is put into the ground, lastyear we had nothing but scanty rains. The drought continued until the monthof February.
The second half of the 1840s and the start of the 1850s were characterised bymoderate to severe drought across the western half of the study area. The 1845–46 rain-year began with relatively heavy rains in October and November 1845.However, the latter part of the rainy season was extremely dry, with Rev. Keck ofMekoatleng observing that:
. . . the summer that we have just had was one of the hottest and the driest whichthe brothers, my precursors (even Mr. Lemue), can remember. . . the extraordi-nary continuous heats of February and March have added their influence to theindispositions. . . (PEMS AA FBN2 Mf.99, Keck, J.D., Mekoatleng, 30 April1846).
The drought appears to have continued into the early part of the 1846–47 rainyseason, with the annual report for 1846 for the WMMS Thaba ‘Nchu mission stationnoting that “the long continuance of a severe drought led to the employment ofrainmakers whose directions for procuring rain have been punctually obeyed. . . ”(WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN1, Mf.35, Bechuana District Minutes and Reportsfor 1846).
This drought episode was ended by the extremely wet rainy season of 1847–48(see below). However, drier conditions returned following the delayed onset of rainsduring the austral summer of 1848–49. “The terrible scourge of a long drought”(PEMS AA FBN3 Mf.118, Fredoux, J., Motito, 18 February 1849) was furtherreported in Motito to the north of the study area. Below average precipitation alsoappears to have occurred during the summer of 1849–50, although localised heavyrain is reported around Thaba Bosiu in January 1850 (PEMS AA FBN3 Mf.124.Lautre, F.P., Thaba Bosiu, 20 November 1850) and near Mekoatleng in May 1850(Gray 1876, p.283). The final year of the 1848–51 drought was extremely dry. Droughtconditions are reported by observers from across Lesotho and adjacent areas of
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 633
South Africa from September 1850 until at least late August 1851, only punctu-ated by periods of rainfall in November 1850 and March 1851. Rev. Gosselin ofBethesda summarised the severity of conditions during this period in a letter fromearly 1851:
This year there has been a lack of harvest, the drought is extremely severebecause of the lack of rain, and the frosts were so strong that the corn whichwas flowering was hit by the cold which lasted for 2 months. The fruit on thetrees perished in the same way. The cattle in the plains perished due to lackof food, thus this year will be one of famine for many regions in this country.(PEMS AA FBN3 Mf.130, Gosselin, C., Bethesda, 10 January 1851).
Serious drought returned to much of Lesotho and adjacent parts of South Africain 1858–63. The austral summer of 1858–59 was relatively dry, being characterised bygood early rains followed by a lengthy drought from the midsummer onwards. Theannual WMMS report for Thaba ‘Nchu mission noted a “severe drought. . . duringthe greater part of the year [that] scourged this country and ultimately caused aserious failure of the harvest”, whilst the report for Platberg described the populationas in “. . . a state of actual famine” (WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN2, Mf.66,Northern District Minutes and Reports, 26 October 1859). The summer of 1859–60 exhibited normal precipitation patterns but the failure of the summer rains duringthe succeeding three rain-years (1860–61, 1862–63 and 1863–64) represents the driestepisode during the study period. “An appalling drought” (Germond 1967, p.457,citing a letter by Rev. Jousse of Thaba Bosiu, dated December 1860) characterisedthe first half of the 1860–61 rain-year in Lesotho, resulting in “considerable losses. . .of cattle” (PEMS AA FBN4 Mf.191, Maeder, F., Aliwal North, 15 October 1860).W.W. Collins, a resident of the former Orange Free State since the 1850s, describedconditions in adjacent parts of South Africa:
The country passed through a severe visitation of drought in 1860, when up tothe end of November of that year the much needed rain had not come, and as isoften the case—after long continued droughts—early in December heavy coldrains, and severe hail storms fell. . . (Collins 1907, p.213).
The 1861–62 and 1862–63 rain-years followed a broadly similar pattern, withaustral spring and early summer drought. In the former rain-year, the dry spell wasfollowed by reasonable mid- and late-summer rains. During the latter, however, theonly documented rains occurred during December 1862 and January 1863 “whenthey should have come in September or October” (Collins 1907, p.213), and themajority of the year was characterised by extremely dry conditions. Drought wasreported from every part of Lesotho, with widespread accounts of harvest failure,the cessation of trading between major population centres and increases in foodprices resulting in famine (Table 5). Extremely low flows are also reported in theOrange, Caledon and other major rivers (PEMS AA FBN4 Mf.203. Rolland, S.,Beersheba, 14 January 1863), indicating significantly reduced levels of rainfall overthe Drakensberg and Maluti ranges. It appears likely that the Caledon experiencedlow flows from October 1862 to January 1863; Germond (1967, p.458) cites a reportfrom PEMS headquarters in Paris (dated February 1863) which noted that “the beds
634 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Table 5 Statements illustrating the severity of the 1862–63 drought, which was only punctuated byrainfall in December 1862 and January 1863
Quotation Source
(Describing progress in building a new schoolhouse) “Somemonths have passed and nothing more has been done, owingto the scarcity of water, which renders the making of bricksimpossible. . . The country is parched up with drought. Theseed time for wheat is already passed, and the people havenot been able to sow. All are anxious as the time for sowingmaize and millet will soon be here, and the ground is too hardto plough. The two last seasons have been very dry; and if thenext is similar there will be a famine. . . ”
WMMS SA CorrespondenceFBN14 Mf 527, Brigg, A.,Wittebergen, 3 August 1862
“The drought has been unprecedented and threatens to re-sult in a terrible famine. All foodstuffs have doubled andtrebled in price. We are all restricted to the strictest andscantiest so as to make both ends meet. The want of grasscaused by the long drought over a large part of the Colonyhindered the traders from driving their wagons to the frontiertowns. . . Happily the Lord has had pity upon us and thewhole nation. Abundant rains have at last put an end to thepersistent drought which hung so heavily upon us. . . ”
Letter written by Rev. Mabille,Morija, December 1862(cited by Smith 1996, p.104)
“Alas the drought is more and more extreme, the pasturesare missing. . . the goats are dying. . . the oxen of brotherEllenberger are also dying and he has only four left, twelveat least have died, as many cows as calves, as well as six of myhorses. Those which remain are so poor that one cannot cartor even travel by horse. . . The drought does not only reachthe cattle but also hits the people, nothing left in the loft,hunger everywhere, and a famine ahead of us. . . the sky isstill serene, the ground cracked, the majority of the fountainsare dried up and the streams dry. It is said that the Caledonhas stopped running. . . At the last hour, God gave us a goodrain in our district, today the gardens and the native’s fieldspromise well, we are hoping for a good harvest. . . .”
PEMS AA FBN4 Mf.201,Gosselin, C., Bethesda,5 January 1863
“The drought about which you heard last year is now a thingof the past. . . The clouds, which overcast the heavens withfertilising treasure, seemed only to come to mock us, andthen passed away with the wind, which bore on its wingsthousands of tons of dry dust gathered on its sweep overthe parched ground for miles and miles; and which went on,gathering and still gathering, over mountains and plains untilit reached the South Atlantic and Indian oceans. Vegetationof every kind was blasted and destroyed. Vast grass plainsbecame mere sandy desert. The mighty Orange River couldbe stepped across by a child; while other rivers, which had intheir days of strength, frequently been impassable barriers. . .were nothing but gaping chasms utterly devoid of moisture.Locomotion was almost entirely stopped, so that the inlandtowns were as though besieged by an army determined toreduce them by starvation. . . But the visitation passed by.God in mercy sent rain upon the land; which, though late,enabled the people to sow a little corn. . . ”
WMMS SA CorrespondenceFBN14 Mf 532, Brigg, A.,Wittebergen, 27 July 1863
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 635
of the Caledon and its numerous tributaries were completely dry, a thing which hadnever been seen in living memory”. To give an overall impression of the severityof the drought, the 1862–63 rain-year generated the largest number of observations(61 quotations) of drier than average conditions for any rain-year during the studyperiod (see Fig. 4), with January 1863 providing more climate-related observations(22 quotations) than any other single month between 1824 and 1900.
After two seasons of above-average rainfall (see below), drought returned from1865–69. The early part of the 1865–66 rain-year contained little evidence of drierconditions, with Rev. Mabille of Morija reporting in a letter to his parents dated 8September 1865 that the area around the mission station was “. . . splendidly clothedin verdure at this time. . . ” (Smith 1996, p.150), primarily due to the preceding wetsummer. In contrast, the last quarter of 1865 was dry, with the 1865 annual report forthe WMMS Wittebergen mission noting:
In temporal things our people have suffered. . . The ravages of the locustscaused the total destruction of the Indian Corn crops in this locality. Andthe drought at present prevailing renders our future prospects very gloomy(WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN2, Mf.89, Bechuana District Minutes andReports, 18 January 1866).
Despite a very dry winter and early austral spring in 1866 (Smith 1996, p.162),rainfall levels during 1866–67 were normal. However, there is evidence for relativelydry conditions during the 1867–68 rain-year, particularly at the end of 1867. Droughtappears to have been variable spatially, with reports of harvest failure in areas ofpresent-day South Africa and Lesotho at the same time as accounts of advancedcrops in others. For example, Rev. Maeder noted in a letter from Bethulie missionstation (immediately west of the study area):
While the drought desolates the inhabitants of the Free State and a part of thecolony, Lesotho is green and pretty. The innumerable fields of corn and maizethat the Bassoutos have sown are growing wonderfully and delight the eyes ofthe men from this district who have been to war, because they are no longeraccustomed to the greenery. (PEMS AA FBN5 Mf.242, Maeder, F., Bethulie, 5November 1867).
Drought conditions appear to have ended by the middle of the austral summer,with accounts of widespread heavy rainfall across the study area between November1867 and January 1868. The early part of the rain-year 1868–69 was also relativelydry. For example, PEMS missionary Rev. Ellenberger wrote from Masitise that“. . . since October, November and December of last year [1868], the drought hasbeen quite strong in this part of Lesotho. . . such that the cattle are dying from it anda terrible famine should follow” (PEMS AA FBN5 Mf.256, Ellenberger, F., Masitise,31 May 1869). The last 6 months of the rain-year appear to have been characterisedby normal rainfall.
The period 1876 to 1885 represented a decade of below average rainfall, withdrought prevailing from 1876–80 and 1882–85, punctuated only by extremely wetconditions in 1880–81. Normal levels of rainfall occurred during the austral springand early summer of 1876, but drought was reported widely in the middle and latter
636 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
parts of the 1876–77 rain-year. The English-language newspaper, the Little Light ofBasutoland, contains the following account of conditions:
The drought has been very much felt in several parts of Basutoland: at someplaces the stalks of [native] corn and mealies have been, as it were, calcinatedby the sun: many fields are completely destroyed: others have been very muchspoilt by the hail, so that there may be a dearth of food in the country (Number2, February 1877, p.1).
The “fearful drought. . . lasted til the middle of February” (Little Light ofBasutoland, Number 3, March 1877, p.3), after which apparently regular patternsof rainfall returned.
Conditions during the summer of 1877–78 were even drier. Heavy rains and highriver levels were reported by the missionaries Rev. Widdicombe (1891, p.110) andRev. Kohler (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.296, Kohler, F., Leribe, 23 November 1877)around Leribe in late 1877, but these storms appear to have been restricted to thenorthern part of the study area. Instead, “drought threatening to rival that of 1862”(WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN4, Mf.186, Bloemfontein District Minutes andReports, 18 January 1878) is reported over much of the rest of Lesotho. The annualreport for 1877 for the Thaba Bosiu district, for example, concluded that “. . . the onlyfeature in the state of the district that causes apprehension is the continued severedrought that we are having. . . ” (Colony of Cape of Good Hope 1878, p.13), whilstthat for Mohale’s Hoek noted that “. . . the trade of the district has not improved,owing to the long and severe drought. . . ” (p.15). The drought appears to have brokenin early February 1878, with missionary Rev. Maeder recording in a letter to PEMSheadquarters: “Since a fortnight ago, we are enjoying beneficial rains who have givenback the beauty to nature, the pastures, the herds, and the current to the rivers”(PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.302, Maeder, F., Siloe, 26 February 1878).
Drought conditions continued into the first half of the 1878–79 rain-year. Theannual report for 1878 for Thaba Bosiu District, for example, noted: “The wheat cropthis season has been a very poor one on account of the drought; which only brokeup here on Christmas Day, on which, and the following Friday, splendid rains fellthroughout the district” (Colony of Cape of Good Hope 1879, p.19). The droughtappears to have broken at around the same time across Lesotho, with missionaryRev. Mitchell noting in his report for the SPG mission station at Thaba ‘Nchu for thequarter ending 1 January 1879:
The New Year has begun most auspiciously. On the festival of the Epiphany itbegan to rain and continued without intermission for almost two whole days.I see from a local paper we have not had so abundant a downpour sinceNovember 1874. . . (USPG E34, 1879).
There are relatively few reports of conditions during the period February–May1879. The onset of the austral winter of 1879 appears to have been “excessively wet”(PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.307, Germond, P., Thabana Morena, 20 July 1879). Droughtthen prevailed during the second quarter of the 1879–80 rain-year. The annual reportfor Leribe District described a “. . . lack of rain in the spring months” (Colony ofCape of Good Hope 1880b, p.10). Conditions in Quthing District were even moresevere, with the 1879 annual report (dated 24 December 1879) noting that “no rain
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 637
has fallen since the winter until the 17th and 18th instant” (Colony of Cape of GoodHope 1880b, p.37). The first 6 months of 1880 were comparatively wet, with reportsof heavy rains and localised flooding around Paballong in February (PEMS LESFBN6 Mf.310, Christmann, G., Paballong, 19 February 1880) and between Morijaand Matatiele (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.315, Marzolff, H., Mataliele, 18 June 1880) inJune.
Following continued wet conditions in 1880–81 and normal rainfall in 1881–82,relatively dry conditions returned during the first half of the 1882–83 rain-year.The October 1882 issue of Leselinyana La Lesotho, for example, provided a reporton conditions, including the observation (p.6) “Lesotho tsatsi le eme” (‘the sun isstill; it is very hot and dry in Lesotho’), during what should have been the peakof the early summer rainy season. The annual report for the WMMS Wittebergenmission also noted that “. . . the drought continuing through the year has greatlyimpoverished [the] people” (WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN5, Mf.237, Kimberley& Bloemfontein District Minutes and Reports, 15 November 1882). Documents fromthe remainder of the rain-year are dominated by accounts of war and contain littleinformation about environmental conditions. However, the winter of 1883 appearsto have been relatively dry, heralding the onset of a further period of drought. Rev.Casalis, writing from Mabolela in October 1883, reported:
. . . unfortunately the drought here is awful. . . whilst at Morija, we have hadthree or four good rains, the Free State, and low and high Lesotho have hadnothing, and the countryside around here is still as bare and still as yellow as atthe time of your passage (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.327, Casalis, E., Mabolela, 12October 1883).
Drought conditions continued throughout the last quarter of 1883, with onlylocalised rainfall reported in mid-November in Morija (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.327,Casalis, E., Morija, 17 November 1883), Berea (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.329, Duvoisin,L., Berea, 18 November 1883) and Cana (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.331, Kohler, F.,Cana, 12 December 1883). Localised drought is also documented in the early partof 1884, with regular rainfall only occurring in March and April (e.g. GLD SirGodfrey Lagden Diaries RH MSS.Afr.s.154). Rev. Casalis included some interestingobservations about the drought in early 1884 in a letter to PEMS headquarters,including a reference to unusually vivid sunsets and sunrises:
What an extraordinary year we are having! Here is the drought again—droughtin February? But this is unheard of! Our rivers do not have a drop of water anda large number of springs are dried up. Every night and every morning redlights of an extraordinary brightness appear in the sky before the sun sets andbefore it rises. What is this strange phenomenon which has lasted for 3 months?It appears that the year will be bad with regards to the harvests (PEMS LESFBN6 Mf.334, Casalis, E., Morija, 9 February 1884).
These observations are almost certainly linked to the eruption of Krakatau on27 August 1883 which affected atmospheric conditions around the world over thefollowing months (cf. Písek and Brázdil 2006).
The 1884–85 rain-year was the driest of the 1882–85 drought period. Whilst somerains are reported in November 1884 (e.g. by Rev. Widdicombe at Thlotse; USPG
638 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
E39b, 1884), the final months of 1884 appear to have been extremely dry (as shown byinstrumental records from Aliwal North; Table 4). PEMS missionary Rev. Marzolffreported for the area around Thabana Morena that “. . . the fields are roasted, thecorn is gnawed by worms and perishes. The drought is extreme, the grass is burnt”(PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.338, Marzolff, H., Thabana Morena, 30 December 1884).There was, however, some spatial variability of rainfall, with Rev. Christol of theBethesda mission writing:
. . . we have not had any rain here for 3 months, which is not the case in all ofLesotho. . . If God does not soon send this rain so much wished for, it seems thatthe famine will succeed the food shortage (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.334, Christol,F., Bethesda, 15 December 1884).
The drought continued into February 1885, with Rev. Casalis noting that:
The next corn harvest will be almost zero thanks to the dreadful drought whichexists at present in the Colony homeland, the Free State and Lesotho. It is saidthat the drought is worse than the one in 1862—everything is roasted, yellow,the streams, the rivers are dry and a number of fountains are drying up. . . thesky seems bronze (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.340, Casalis, E., Morija, 2 February1885).
Drought conditions appear to have broken in the middle of the month when “. . . itrained across the whole country” (PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.340, Casalis, E., Morija, 4March 1885).
The final drought episode during the study period occurred between 1895 and1899. The annual report for Qacha’s Nek District describes “. . . drought in thespring. . . ” months of the 1895–96 rain-year (LNA Annual Reports and Blue BooksS25/1/13) which was ameliorated by “late rains” (Great Britain 1896, p.24), followingthe same pattern displayed by instrumental data for Maseru and Aliwal North(Tables 3 and 4). The 1896–97 rain-year was similar, with Rev. Widdicombe of theSPG Thlotse mission station reporting “prolonged” spring drought (USPG E51b,1896) offset by “several good soaking showers” in late November/early December1896 and early 1897 (USPG E52b, 1897). Drought conditions continued throughoutthe winter of 1897 and into the spring of the 1897–98 rain-year (Germond 1967,p.472), followed by intermittent heavy summer rains between December 1897 andApril 1898 (GLD Sir Godfrey Lagden Diaries RH MSS.Afr.s.171). Drought alsooccurred during the “severe” winter of 1898 (LNA Annual Reports and BlueBooks S25/1/16, Annual Report, Quthing District, 1898–99), with Mr F. Moony ofQuthing noting in a letter (dated 7 September 1898) to the High Commissioner inMaseru:
Those gardens which were planted earliest in the season are now suffering agood deal from the lack of rain, and are much stunted and wilted. The latersowings still present a fair appearance, but owing to the protracted drought theprospects of a good wheat harvest are fast diminishing. I would point out thesignificant fact that the rainfall in this District for the months May–Septemberof this year is now 4.30 inches [109 mm] below the average of the previous tenyears (LNA Incoming Letters—Qacha’s Nek District S7/1/6/6).
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 639
The Annual Report for Mohale’s Hoek District indicates that the drought wasbroken in February 1899 with the commencement of the late summer rainy season(LNA Annual Reports and Blue Books S25/1/16).
4.2 Evidence for wetter periods
Nine periods during which wetter than average conditions occurred can be identifiedbetween 1824 and 1900. These were mostly of shorter duration than the droughtepisodes described above, and included the years 1835–36, 1838–41, 1847–48, 1854–56, 1863–65, 1873–75, 1880–81, 1885–86 and 1890–94. The first year for which thereis evidence of extremely wet conditions was 1835–36, when “abundant” rains fell incentral western Lesotho during the months of January and February 1836 (PEMSAA FBN1 Mf.24, Arbousset, Th., Morija, 27 February 1836). Rev. Arbousset ofMorija provides details of the relative wetness of the summer, noting: “The rainyseason having already past since two months was one of the best in these latitudes,and in the whole of southern Africa it is said” (PEMS AA FBN1 Mf.26, Arbousset,Th., Morija, 28 June 1836).
The period 1838–41 contained two extremely wet austral summers. Referringto the rainy season of 1838–39, Rev. Taylor of the WMMS mission at Mparanenoted:
. . . nearly from the time of our commencement to the present has been onecontinuation of petty wars and disturbances. The only cessation from thedepredations of these tribes one upon another was occasioned by the almostincessant rains or swollen rivers during the summer months (WMMS SACorrespondence FBN4 Mf 118, Taylor, F., Mparani, 10 December 1840).
This rainy season was followed by a year of apparently normal rainfall before thereturn of extremely wet conditions in the austral spring of 1840. The 1840–41 rainyseason, described by Germond (1967) as “a season of phenomenal rains” (p.65) and“undoubtedly the rainiest season on record north of the Orange [River]” (p.481), wasone of the wettest during the study period. Heavy rains are documented from August1840 to at least mid-March 1841 (Table 6), with accompanying loss of life, disruptionto communication routes and damage to crops. However, even during this time, thereare still several reported dry periods which appear to have affected certain areas.For example, Rev. Giddy of Thaba ‘Nchu wrote in December 1840: “A short timesince, an attempt was made to get up a rain-making ceremony. . . But notwithstandingthey used every effort to procure rain, not a drop fell on that day nor for six weeksafterwards. . . ” (WMMS SA Correspondence FBN4 Mf 118, R. Giddy, Thaba ‘Nchu,28 December 1840).
The droughts of 1845–47 and 1848–51 were separated by heavy “early rains”(WMMS SA Correspondence FBN4 Mf 126, Giddy, R., Platberg, 28 October 1847)from late September to November 1847, with further heavy rain in January and May1848. PEMS missionary Rev. Gosselin, for example, noted that “the beginning ofJanuary was very rainy” and that “during the [annual PEMS regional] conference(May) it rained a lot. . . The abundance of the rains made the Makhaling river rise somuch that it was impossible to cross the ford, we were obliged to make a small boatto cross it” (PEMS AA FBN2 Mf.113, Gosselin, C., Bethesda. 1 July 1848).
640 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Table 6 Statements illustrating the duration and intensity of the 1840–41 rainy season
Quotation Source
(Describing a journey across southern Lesotho in August 1840)“From night until morning the cold was often very sharp, al-though in the middle of the day the heat from the sun becamealmost unbearable. Three times the rain, which this year hadstarted a few weeks earlier than usual, forced us to remainstopped for two or three days in a row. . . From the first day welearnt that the abundant rains, which had been falling for twoweeks, had increased the waters of the Orange River so muchthat the banks were covered. . . we remained ten days on the aridand sandy banks of the big river. Its two banks were besiegedby a large number of wagons. . . Many of those who shared ourfate had been watching the state of the waters of the river for30 days. . . At last on the 7th October a wagon from the rightbank ventured the crossing.”
PEMS AA FBN1 Mf.57,Pfrimmer, A., Bethulie,26 November 1840
“When the rains set in three months ago the walls were nearlyfinished but subsequently two partition wall were struck downby lightning and all the others one after another have fallen tothe ground in consequence of the ceaseless floods to which theyhave been exposed.”
WMMS SA CorrespondenceFBN4 Mf 118, Cameron, J.,Platberg, 5 March 1841
(Entries from Gosselin’s journal for 1841) 4 and 5 January.Rain. . . 9 January. Rain. . . 18 January. Rain. . . 25 January.Rain. . . 5 February. Rain. . . 10 February. Extraordinary rains. . .16 February. Extraordinary rains. . . 17 and 18 February. Therain continued. The flooding is so great that the walls in thegarden have fallen and many trees have fallen. . . 6 March.Someone came to tell me that the man who had been carriedaway by the river last Thursday had appeared and I went therewith some of the people from here and we buried him. . . 27April. Rain. . . 11 May. Rain. . . 12 May. Rain.”
PEMS AA FBN2 Mf.61,Gosselin, C., Morija,1 July 1841
“March 13th 1841. The heavy and destructive rains which havecontinued nearly three months have this week subsided, andthe weather is again fine, so that the people are busy with theircorn.”
WMMS SA CorrespondenceFBN4 Mf 118, Cameron, J.,Platberg, 22 April 1841
Two consecutive wet years occurred between 1854 and 1856. The first, 1854–55,was extremely wet, with heavy summer rains reported across the study area. Thesecaused extensive flooding and disruption to communications. A letter from Rev.Jousse describing a journey from the former Orange Free State to Thaba Bosiuprovides some idea of the problems generated:
The chain of the Malutis spread themselves majestically before us and wecould easily point to the sites of the [mission] stations of Berea, Thaba Bosiuand Morija. But the Caledon which separated us from these above-mentionedplaces had ceased to be passable since three months. What to do then? Waitat Platberg until the waters of the Caledon have drained or turn our backs onLesotho and go and cross this river in a boat beyond Beersheba? Even though
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 641
this journey would take two weeks more we did not hesitate to undertake it,and the 29th of December we made our entrance at Thaba Bosiu (PEMS AAFBN3 Mf.159, Jousse, Th., Thaba Bosiu, 25 February 1855).
It is unclear from the documentary record when the period of heavy rains endedbut the report for the WMMS Thaba ‘Nchu mission for 1855 describes “unceasingrains during the greater part of the year” (WMMS SA Synod Minutes FBN2, Mf.56,Bechuana Section Minutes and Reports, 24 October 1855), suggesting that rainscontinued well into 1855. There is also evidence that the early part of the 1855–56rainy season was very wet, with Rev. Maitin of Berea describing “great rains” andflooding from September to November 1855 (PEMS AA FBN5 Mf.273, Maitin, J.,Berea, Journal, 1855–56).
The protracted drought periods of 1858–63 and 1865–69 were separated bytwo extremely wet years. During the 1863–64 rain-year, “the rains [were] heavyand prolonged” (Cochet, L.J., 1845–1901, Notes et Souvenirs—Unpublished diary,translated by R. Webb), with WMMS missionary Rev. Giddy describing the swollenOrange River to the west of Aliwal North on 9 January 1864 as being “nowperhaps twice the width of the Thames at Richmond” (WMMS SA CorrespondenceFBN14 Mf 537, Giddy, R., Colesberg, 12 February 1864). Particularly heavy rainswere recorded between Maseru and Bloemfontein in February 1864 (WMMS SACorrespondence FBN14 Mf 538, Giddy, R., Bechuana District, 16 March 1864) andflooding is also reported in the Caledon River in March of that year (Sauer and Theal1883, p.267). The early rains of the 1864–65 rain-year were also above average, withRev. Mabille of Morija noting in October 1864:
We are likely to have as wet a year as the last. Already we have had plentyof rain. For two months and more the Caledon has been full and unfordable(Smith 1996, p.104).
The rains appear to have continued into the late summer and autumn, with lowattendances minuted at the annual PEMS conference in May because “the rain andthe rivers prevented a large number of Christians from attending” (PEMS AA FBN4Mf.212, Conference, Morija, May 1865).
The summers of 1873–75 were both characterised by drought during the australspring and early summer followed by relatively heavy mid- to late-summer rainfall.The report for the quarter ending 31 March 1874 by Rev. Mitchell of the Thaba‘Nchu mission summarised the impacts of the heavy rainfall between January andMarch 1874:
When I last wrote to the Society we had been suffering from a long and severedrought: it terminated soon after Xmas. Since then to the present it has beenrain, rain, rain. Such a season for rain is said by our old men to have occurredwhen they were lads. We are, however, just now hoping, as we have had fourfine days in succession, that a change is at last setting in. The great rivers of thecountry have been swollen to an incredible height, and mills and such housesas happen to be built on their banks have been swept away. Floods have beenconstant, appearing where they were never expected, sweeping our pasturesand gardens and leaving them as clean as a river’s bed. (USPG E29, 1874).
642 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
The annual colonial report for Aliwal North district (Colony of Cape of GoodHope 1875a, p.JJ29) noted that “. . . on 19th, 20th, and 21st February 1874, theOrange River overflowed its banks on the Orange Free State side, and the wateris calculated to have risen twelve feet higher than it ever was before. . . ”, suggestingparticularly heavy rainfall over the Drakensberg ranges. Rainfall during the summerof 1874–75 appears to have been less intense, although an article entitled ‘Rain’ inthe Little Light of Basutoland (No. 12, December 1874, p.4) reported that Lesothohad “. . . been visited by abundant rains. . . ” in November 1874 which had resultedin at least two fatalities. The Orange River does not appear to have reached bank-full, although it is described in a letter by Rev. Dieterlen (cited by Germond 1967,p.462) as being “. . . too full to ford. . . ” and “. . . as wide as the Seine. . . ” in early1875.
As noted, the drought of 1876–80 was terminated by heavy rains during the firstsix months of 1880, and these continued into the spring of the 1880–81 rain-year.Mrs Fanny Barkly, for example, quoted a letter from her husband in Mafeteng,dated 12 October 1880, in which he records “floods of rain lately” (Barkly 1894,p.199). “Violent storms and incessant rain” are also reported for late October1880 in letters from Commandant D. Strachan to the Resident Commissioner inMaseru (Great Britain 1881a, pp.57–58), with accounts of flooding along the OrangeRiver in November 1880 (e.g. PEMS LES FBN6 Mf.315, Marzolff, H., Kokstadt,16 November 1880). Heavy rains appear to have fallen until at least February1881, with Rev. Widdicombe of the SPG Thlotse mission noting “we have had anunusually wet season, the rain having continued for nearly five months with very littleintermission. . . ” in his report for the quarter ending 28 February 1881 (USPG E36,1881).
The protracted drought of 1882–85 was also followed by extremely heavy rainduring 1885–86. The austral spring months were unusually wet, with Germond (1967,p.467) translating the following from a letter by Rev. Mabille of Morija datedSeptember 1885:
We have just had five days of copious rain. The gauge has measured 67.1 mm(i.e. 21/2 inches); that is the total. We have not had as much rain in the last threeyears, especially at this season.
Wet conditions were also reported across much of the study area for the remainderof the rain-year. For example, heavy rains killed a number of cattle in the Butha–Buthe area in November 1885 (Leselinyana La Lesotho, No. 12, 1 December 1885,p.1), and the annual report for Mohale’s Hoek District for the year 1885–1886describes “. . . splendid rain during the latter part of the summer” (LNA AnnualReports and Blue Books S25/1/3).
The final and longest run of wet years during the study period occurred in theearly 1890s. Despite a paucity of documentary evidence for the start of the rain-year,the austral summer of 1890–91 appears to have been particularly wet and may havebeen even wetter than the summer of 1840–41. Summer rains commenced in thenorth of the study area during October 1890 (PEMS LES FBN7 Mf.413, Mabille, E.,Makeneng, 7 February 1891) and were unusually heavy from late December 1890(Leselinyana La Lesotho, No. 2, 1 February 1891, p.6) until at least May 1891 (PEMSLES FBN7 Mf.407, Christol, F., Hermon, 9 May 1891). Instrumental rainfall data are
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 643
only available for part of the rain-year (Table 3), but indicate high rainfall totals atMaseru during January, March and May 1891. The annual report for Quthing Districtfor the year 1890–91 also notes:
The rainfall registered at Moyeme [Quthing] for the year has been exception-ally heavy, amounting approximately to 43 inches [1092 mm]. The OrangeRiver has been impassable during nearly the whole year. . . The wet weatherhas also caused much damage to crops, especially in the upper portions of thedistrict. (LNA Annual Reports and Blue Books S25/1/8).
The torrential rainfall led to the occurrence of “overflowing rivers everywhere”(PEMS LES FBN7 Mf.406, Bertschy, H., Paballong, 16 February 1891) and extensivedamage to infrastructure. For example, a statement under oath (dated 1 July 1891)by George, a government post-rider, to explain the late arrival of the postal deliveryat Maseru records: “I left Aliwal North at 5.10 pm on Tuesday and have been lateright through the journey. The roads are so bad from Aliwal up that it is impossibleto travel fast at night.” (LNA Incoming Letters—Maseru District S7/1/4/2).
The rainy seasons of 1891–92 to 1893–94 were characterised by relatively wetconditions. Heavy rainfall and storms are reported throughout the last quarter of1891 (PEMS LES FBN7 Mf.409, Germond, L., Siloe, 22 September 1891), with “veryfull” rivers noted by Sir Godfrey Lagden, the Resident Commissioner in Maseru, inFebruary 1892 (GLD Sir Godfrey Lagden Diaries RH MSS.Afr.s.165). The summerof 1892–93 also appears to have been relatively wet, with instrumental data forMaseru (Table 3) indicating above-average rainfall in October–November 1892 andJanuary 1893. This caused considerable disruption to livelihoods and transport. Forexample, a letter from the Assistant Commissioner at Mohale’s Hoek, dated 21January 1893 records: “Owing to continuous rains that have fallen in the district sincethe wheat has been reaped, a good deal of damage has been done and natives havebeen prevented from threshing. The rain still continues.” (LNA Incoming Letters—Mohale’s Hoek District S7/1/5/4). The report for the quarter ending 31 March 1893by SPG missionary Rev. Woodman at Masite also notes:
The chief event of this quarter has been the visit of the Bishop, which tookplace in the middle of January. Unfortunately the weather was exceptionallywet, rivers and streams were flooded and the roads were in a very bad state.This made it a matter of considerable difficulty for the Bishop to get to us andalso it was impossible for many of our people to be in from the outstations.(USPG E48b, 1893).
Further floods were reported early in the 1893–94 rain-year by the AssistantCommissioner for Mohale’s Hoek district in a letter dated 7 October 1893 (LNAIncoming Letters—Mohale’s Hoek District S7/1/5/4), with heavy rains recordedduring much of the last quarter of 1893 (e.g. GLD Sir Godfrey Lagden Diaries RHMSS.Afr.s.166) and early 1894. The annual report for Berea District, for example,notes that “. . . mealies and [native] corn have been greatly damaged by the heavyrains which we experienced in January and February last. . . The roads in the district,owing to the heavy autumn rains referred to above, were very much damaged. . . ”(Great Britain 1894, p.27). Similar observations are also made for Mohale’s Hoek
644 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
(ibid., p.11), Butha–Buthe (p.22) and Mafeteng (p.33) districts, indicating the geo-graphical extent of the wetter conditions.
5 Discussion
5.1 Comparison of the rainfall chronology for Lesotho with other historical proxies
The results of this investigation can be compared against the high resolution nine-teenth century rainfall reconstructions available for other parts of southern Africa(Fig. 5). These include the semi-quantitative document-derived rainfall chronologiescompiled for the eastern and southern Cape (Vogel 1989), Kalahari (Nash andEndfield 2002a, 2008) and Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel 2007), and the quantita-tive tree-ring reconstruction of rainfall variability produced by Therrell et al. (2006).
Seven of the nine periods of below-average rainfall established in this study(Fig. 2) fall within the subcontinent-wide drought episodes identified by Kelsoand Vogel (2007). The 1833–34 drought appears to have affected large areas ofSouth Africa and southern Botswana but did not extend as far north as Zimbabwe(Fig. 5). The 1845–47 drought coincided with dry periods in the Cape, Kalahariand Zimbabwe, although a data gap in the record for Namaqualand means that thewestern extent of dry conditions is unknown. Rainfall levels during 1848–51 are morespatially variable, with below-average rainfall occurring in the Cape, Namaqualand,Lesotho and the Kalahari and variable conditions to the north in Zimbabwe. Nashand Endfield (2002b) further suggest that drought conditions may have occurred inparts of Angola and Zambia in the latter years of this dry phase.
Widespread drought occurred across southern Africa between 1858 and 1863,although conditions do not appear to have been as severe in the southern Capecompared to other areas. The summer of 1860–61 was the second driest of thenineteenth century in Zimbabwe (the driest being 1856; Therrell et al. 2006), withthe summers of 1861–62 amongst the driest for the eastern Cape (Vogel 1989),Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel 2007) and Kalahari (Nash and Endfield 2002a), and1862–63 the driest for Lesotho and adjacent areas of South Africa. Rainfall levelsduring 1865–69 were below average across Lesotho, Namaqualand and Zimbabwebut were variable elsewhere. The final two drought episodes identified in this study(1882–85 and 1895–99) coincide with widespread drought across southern Africa;the latter dry phase terminated slightly earlier in Zimbabwe but there is otherwiseextremely good agreement between the documentary and tree-ring derived rainfallrecords. The dry periods which do not coincide with subcontinental drought arethose of 1841–42 and 1876–80. Drought only appears to have affected the easternsubcontinent during 1841–42, including Lesotho, the eastern Cape and Zimbabwe,with normal conditions prevailing elsewhere. The 1876–80 drought coincides withdrier conditions in the Kalahari and eastern Cape but more variable levels of rainfallin other areas.
There is less regional coincidence between wetter episodes during the nineteenthcentury. Of the nine wet periods identified in this study, only those from 1838–41, 1854–56, 1863–65 and 1890–92 exhibit any regional coherence. The 1847–48wet period affected only Lesotho and surrounding regions, including the easternCape, whilst the 1885–86 phase also extended into the southern Cape. The three
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 645
Fig. 5 Results of this study compared against a the tree-ring reconstructed rainfall record forZimbabwe (Therrell et al. 2006), including both the annual (thin line) and 10-year smoothingspline (heavy line) values of reconstructed November–February rainfall; and b the high-resolutiondocument-derived rainfall chronologies for the southern Kalahari Desert and surrounding hardveld(Nash and Endfield 2002a), Namaqualand (Kelso and Vogel 2007) and the Southern and EasternCape regions (Vogel 1989). Gaps in the chronologies correspond to either missing data (tree-ringrecord) or unclassified years (documentary records). The widespread drought episodes identified byKelso and Vogel (2007) span the years 1820–21, 1825–27, 1834, 1860–62, 1874–75, 1880–83 and 1894–96, with an additional dry period from the early- to mid-1840s affecting the Kalahari and Zimbabweonly (Nash and Endfield 2002a; Therrell et al. 2006)
remaining wetter episodes (1835–36, 1873–75 and 1880–81) show less clear spatialpatterns, although the 1873–75 period coincided with wetter than average condi-tions in the southern Kalahari. Wetter conditions affected much of Lesotho, theCape, Namaqualand, the Kalahari and Zimbabwe during two additional rain-years(1829–30 and 1870–71). Conversely, the very heavy rainfall that occurred oversouthern Africa during 1899–1900 is not registered for Lesotho.
646 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
5.2 Potential drivers of historical rainfall variability
Rainfall variability in southern Africa over interannual to inter-decadal timescalesis governed by a range of specific factors. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (low-phase) warm events mainly impact upon interannual rainfall variability (Nicholson2000) and are frequently, but not exclusively, associated with drought over largeareas of southern Africa (e.g. Lindesay et al. 1986; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1986;Ropelewski and Halpert 1987, 1989; Lindesay 1988; Van Heerden et al. 1988;Nicholson and Kim 1997; Mason 2001; Richard et al. 2001; Mulenga et al.2003; Usman and Reason 2004; Reason and Jagadheesha 2005a; Rouault andRichard 2005; Reason et al. 2006). Analyses of twentieth century rainfall variabilitysuggest that the impact of individual ENSO events is strongest in the southeast ofthe subcontinent and in northeast South Africa (e.g. Ropelewski and Halpert 1987,1989; Rocha and Simmonds 1997). The effects are greatest during the peak summerrainfall months, with around 20% of summer rainfall variance accounted for by therelationship with the ENSO (Lindesay and Vogel 1990). Maximum negative rainfallanomalies occur over Lesotho during the period February–April of the australsummer following an ENSO event (Nicholson and Kim 1997).
A number of studies have noted associations between ENSO and nineteenthcentury rainfall variability in southern Africa. Lindesay and Vogel (1990) identifiedthat 17 of the 20 drought episodes in the southern and eastern Cape between 1820and 1900 coincided with Pacific ENSO warm events. Similarly, all 14 of the droughtphases identified in Namaqualand during the 1800s corresponded with ENSO warmevents (Kelso and Vogel 2007). In the Kalahari, the six major drought periodsbetween 1815 and 1900 all coincided with ENSO warm events of moderate orgreater strength (Nash and Endfield 2002a). Furthermore, intra-annual patternsof rainfall variability in the Kalahari during ENSO years between 1840 and 1900closely followed those identified from twentieth century instrumental data (Nash andEndfield 2008). Not all ENSO events, however, coincided with dry austral summers.For example, the 1828 warm event was associated with drought in the eastern andsouthern Cape but relatively wet conditions across the Kalahari.
To permit the degree of correspondence between the ENSO and nineteenthcentury rainfall variability in Lesotho to be qualitatively assessed, the widely usedPacific ENSO chronology compiled by Quinn and Neal (1995) and the alternativerecord proposed by Ortlieb (2000) are shown in Fig. 2b. Whilst not trying to over-attribute cause from this figure, seven of the nine drought episodes identified inFig. 2a correspond with low phase ENSO events, the exceptions being the severebut short-lived droughts of 1833–34 and 1841–42. When individual rain-years areconsidered, the relationship is not as strong. If the association between ENSO anddrought in southern Africa identified for the twentieth century by Nicholson and Kim(1997) held, it would be expected that the majority of the nineteenth century ENSOevents would align with relatively or very dry categories on the figure. However, only13 of the 24 single-year or protracted ENSO events appear to have directly coincidedwith drier summers.
The strength of the El Niño signal in southern Africa can, in part, be attributed tothe influence of ENSO events upon sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorialAtlantic and western Indian oceans (Nicholson 1997; Nicholson and Kim 1997).
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 647
However, SST variations also influence summer rainfall across the subcontinentoutside ENSO years (cf. Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Mason and Jury 1997;Reason 1998; Reason and Mulenga 1999). Above average rainfall occurs alongthe Angolan and Namibian coasts (and further inland) in association with warmsoutheast tropical Atlantic events (e.g. Hirst and Hastenrath 1983; Nicholson andEntekhabi 1987; Rouault et al. 2003; Reason and Jagadheesha 2005b; Reason et al.2006). Summer rainfall also increases over southeast Africa if easterly flow is presentoff northern Madagascar; easterly flow years are commonly associated with higherIndian Ocean SSTs between 25◦ and 35◦S and below normal tropical Indian OceanSSTs (Jury and Nkosi 2000). However, as Nicholson (2000) identifies, caution isneeded before concluding that SST variations force decadal rainfall variability; SSTchanges may precede or lag rainfall changes by up to several years and do not alwaysproduce the expected rainfall anomalies. Heavy rains in eastern southern Africa arealso associated with the passage of tropical cyclones (Tyson 1986; Reason 2007),but these events are infrequent and provide a minor contribution to overall rainfalltotals.
To allow the potential influence of historical SST variations upon past rainfallvariability to be explored, the record of bimonthly and annual mean δ18O valuesfrom corals cored at Ifaty, southwest Madagascar, is shown in Fig. 2c (after Zinkeet al. 2004). The Ifaty coral record is the only available continuous proxy reflectingnineteenth century SST variations in the southwest Indian Ocean, and provides anindication of SSTs over the Mozambique Channel/Agulhas Current region (Zinkeet al. 2004, 2005). The annual mean curve shown in Fig. 2c is calculated usingJuly–June δ18O data for direct comparability with the document-derived rainfallchronology. Although the δ18O data are uncalibrated, maxima in the bimonthlydata occur during the austral winter months of July/August and minima during thesummer (January/February). Positive shifts in the annual mean indicate colder SSTsand negative shifts indicate warmer SSTs.
Comparison of Fig. 2a and c reveals a degree of correspondence between periodsof high/low δ18O and drier/wetter conditions. As noted above (Jury and Nkosi2000), cooler mean SSTs around the latitude of Ifaty might be expected to coincidewith periods of below average rainfall in southeast Africa, and warmer SSTs withenhanced rainfall. Of the nine drought episodes identified in this study, only the1833–34 and 1841–42 dry spells do not correspond with positive shifts in annual meanδ18O values. For example, the drier conditions from 1845–51 coincide directly witha six-year run of more positive mean δ18O values. Similarly, the droughts of 1858–63, including the driest year of the study period (1862–63), 1876–80 and 1895–99 allfall within periods of increased mean δ18O. There is some correspondence betweenwetter phases and more negative δ18O excursions (e.g. in 1838–39, 1840–41, 1880–81 and 1885–86), although this does not appear to be as clear an association asfor drier spells. Again, whilst not attempting to over attribute cause, there is somesuggestion that SST variations, both independently and as a result of teleconnectionsduring ENSO events, may have influenced historical rainfall patterns over Lesotho.However, given the lack of a consistent causal link between southwest IndianOcean SST variability and rainfall levels across southeast Africa (cf. Nicholson 2000;Landman and Goddard 2005; Landman et al. 2005), more wide-ranging research intohistorical rainfall variability is needed before any firm assertions can be made.
648 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
6 Conclusion
This study has utilised documentary sources to generate a semi-continuous recordof rainfall variability for the Kingdom of Lesotho and adjacent areas of South Africaduring the period 1824 to 1900. The results reveal nine drought episodes spanning therain-years of 1833–34, 1841–42, 1845–47, 1848–51, 1858–63, 1865–69, 1876–80, 1882–85 and 1895–99. The most severe of these droughts were those that occurred in 1850–51 and 1862–63. Nine wet periods or floods were also identified in 1835–36, 1838–41,1847–48, 1854–56, 1863–65, 1873–75, 1880–81, 1885–86 and 1890–94. Importantly,there appears to have been no overall wetting or drying trend in Lesotho during thestudy period. The climate chronology compares well with other document-derivedhistorical rainfall records for South Africa and Botswana (Vogel 1989; Nash andEndfield 2002a, 2008; Kelso and Vogel 2007), and also with tree-ring reconstructedrecords from Zimbabwe (Therrell et al. 2006). With the exception of the 1841–42and 1876–80 drought events, all of the drier periods identified in this study coincidewith evidence for regional drought conditions (Kelso and Vogel 2007). As is thecase at the present day (cf. Solomon et al. 2007), attributing cause to patterns ofrainfall variability is much more problematic. Seven of the nine drought episodesin this study coincide with low phase ENSO events, the exceptions being the shortduration droughts of 1833–34 and 1841–42. However, individual drought years showa less clear correspondence with El Niño events. A tentative relationship is identifiedbetween historical wet and dry periods and past Indian Ocean SST temperaturevariations derived from δ18O values in corals cored off southwest Madagascar (Zinkeet al. 2004). However, the extent to which SST variations influenced interannualrainfall fluctuations over southern Africa as a whole during the nineteenth centuryrequires further investigation.
Acknowledgements Our thanks go to the British Academy for supporting this research throughthe award of Small Grant SG-40838, and to the Département Français pour l’Action Apostolique,Council for World Mission, and the United Society for the Propagation of the Gospel for permissionto use quotations. Quotes from Wesleyan Methodist Missionary Society materials are copyrightof the Trustees for Methodist Church Purposes in Great Britain, and are used with permission.Historical rainfall data was supplied by the South African Weather Service. Oxygen isotope datafrom the Ifaty-4 coral sequence was provided by Dr Jens Zinke. Prof. David Ambrose providedconsiderable help in locating key documentary sources in southern Africa and the UK. Dr StephanieMills and Ms Puleng Morake also provided invaluable assistance during the compilation andtranslation of French and Sesotho-language materials in London, Maseru and Morija. Thanks to allthe staff at the Special Collections Reading Room (SOAS, University of London), Bodleian Libraryof Commonwealth and African Studies at Rhodes House (University of Oxford), Lesotho NationalArchive (Maseru) and the Morija Museum and Archives. Comments made by Clare Kelso and twoanonymous reviewers greatly improved the final manuscript.
References
Arbousset T (1991) Missionary excursion into the Blue Mountains, being an account of KingMoshoeshoe’s expedition from Thaba-Bosiu to the sources of the Malibamatso River in theyear 1840 (edited and translated by Ambrose D and Brutsch A). Morija Archives, Morija(unpublished manuscript)
Arbousset T, Daumas F (1968) Narrative of an exploratory tour to the north-east of the Colony ofthe Cape of Good Hope. Struik, Cape Town
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 649
Backhouse J (1844) A narrative of a visit to the Mauritius and South Africa. Hamilton Adams,London
Balfour AB (1895) Twelve hundred miles in a waggon. Edward Arnold, LondonBarkly F (1894) Among Boers and Basutos. Remington, LondonBryson RA, Padoch C (1980) On the climates of history. J Interdiscip Hist 10:583–597Casalis E (1889) My life in Basutoland: a story of missionary enterprise in South Africa (translated
from the French by J Brierley). Religious Tract Society, LondonCollins WW (1907) “Free Statia” or reminiscences of a lifetime in the Orange Free State, South
Africa from 1852 to the end of 1875. Friend Printing and Publishing, BloemfonteinColony of Cape of Good Hope (1860) Blue book for 1859. Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1862) Blue book for 1861. Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1863) Blue book for 1862. Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1874) Blue book on Native Affairs 1874 (G.27–‘74). Saul Solomon,
Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1875a) Blue book for 1874. Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1875b) Blue book on Native Affairs 1875 (G.21–‘75). Saul Solomon,
Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1876a) Blue book on Native Affairs 1876 (G.16–‘76). Saul Solomon,
Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1876b) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1875.
Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1877) Blue book on Native Affairs 1877 (G.12–‘77). Saul Solomon,
Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1878) Blue book on Native Affairs 1878 (G.17–‘78). Saul Solomon,
Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1879) Blue book on Native Affairs (G.33–‘79). Saul Solomon, Cape
TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1880a) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1879.
Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1880b) Blue book on Native Affairs (G.13–‘80). Saul Solomon, Cape
TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1881) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1880.
Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1882) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1881.
Saul Solomon, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1885) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1884.
WA Richards, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1886) Blue book for the Colony of the Cape of Good Hope 1885.
WA Richards, Cape TownColony of Cape of Good Hope (1899) Blue book on Native Affairs 1899. WA Richards, Cape TownCumming RG (1909) The lion hunter of South Africa. John Murray, LondonDanziger C (1979) A trader’s century: the fortunes of Frasers. Purnell, Cape TownDuncan J (1997) Sites of representation—place, time and the discourse of the other. In: Duncan J,
Ley D (eds) Place, culture and representation. Routledge, London, pp 39–56Duncan J, Gregory D (eds) (1999) Writes of passage: reading travel writing. Routledge, LondonDyer TGJ (1982) On the intra-seasonal variation in rainfall over the subcontinent of southern Africa.
J Climatol 2:47–64Eldredge EA (1993) A South African kingdom: the pursuit of security in nineteenth-century
Lesotho. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeEllenberger DF (1912) History of the Basuto: ancient and modern (translated by MacGregor JM).
Caxton, LondonEndfield GH, Nash DJ (2002a) Drought, desiccation and discourse: missionary correspondence and
nineteenth century climate change in central southern Africa. Geogr J 168:33–47Endfield GH, Nash DJ (2002b) Missionaries and morals: climatic discourse in nineteenth century
central southern Africa. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 92:727–742Fichtler E, Trouet V, Beeckman H, Coppin P, Worbes M (2004) Climatic signals in tree rings
of Burkea africana and Pterocarpus angolensis from semiarid forests in Namibia. Trees 18:442–451
Freeman JJ (1851) A tour of South Africa, with notices of Natal, Mauritius, Madagascar, Ceylon,Egypt, and Palestine. John Snow, London
650 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
Germond RC (1967) Chronicles of Basutoland: a running commentary on the events of the years1830–1902 by the French protestant missionaries in Southern Africa. Morija Sesuto Book Depot,Morija
Gray C (1876) Life of Robert Gray, Bishop of Cape Town and Metropolitan of Africa, vol 1.Rivingtons, London
Great Britain (1853a) Further Correspondence relative to the State of the Orange River Territory.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1853b) Correspondence with the Governor of the Cape of Good Hope relative to theState of the Kafir Tribes and to the Recent Outbreak on the Eastern Frontier of the Colony.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1857) Further papers relative to the state of the Kafir tribes. HMSO, LondonGreat Britain (1869) Despatches from the Governor of the Cape of Good Hope and Lieut.-Governor
of Natal, on the subject of the Recognition of Moshesh, Chief of the Basutos, and of his Tribe asBritish Subjects (23719). HMSO, London
Great Britain (1881a) Correspondence respecting the Affairs of Basutoland (C.-2821). HMSO,London
Great Britain (1881b) Correspondence respecting the Affairs of Basutoland (C.-2964). HMSO,London
Great Britain (1882) Correspondence respecting the affairs of Basutoland and the territories to theEastward of the Cape Colony, including Pondoland, Transkei, and St. John’s River (C.-3112.).HMSO, London
Great Britain (1884) Further correspondence respecting the Cape Colony and Adjacent Territories(C.-3855). Eyre and Spottiswoode, London
Great Britain (1886a) Further correspondence respecting the Cape Colony and Adjacent Territories(C.-4644). Eyre and Spottiswoode, London
Great Britain (1886b) Further correspondence respecting the Cape Colony and Adjacent Territories(C.-4838). Eyre and Spottiswoode, London
Great Britain (1886c) Further correspondence respecting the Affairs of Basutoland (C.-4907). Eyreand Spottiswoode, London
Great Britain (1889) Basutoland: report of the resident commissioner for the year ended 30th June1889. Her Majesty’s Colonial Possessions, Report No.70. HMSO, London
Great Britain (1890) Basutoland: report of the acting resident commissioner for the 1889–90. HerMajesty’s Colonial Possessions Report No.114. HMSO, London
Great Britain (1891) Basutoland: annual report for 1890–91. Colonial reports—annual, No.20.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1892) Basutoland: annual report for 1891–92. Colonial reports—Annual, No.62.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1893) Basutoland: annual report for 1892–93. Colonial reports—annual, No.89.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1894) Basutoland: annual reports for 1893–94. Colonial reports—annual, No.123.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1895) Basutoland: annual reports for 1894–95. Colonial reports—annual, No.152.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1896) Basutoland: annual reports for 1895–96. Colonial reports—annual, No.186.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1898) Basutoland: annual report for 1896–97. Colonial reports—annual, No.224.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1899) Basutoland: annual report for 1897–98. Colonial reports—annual, No.255.HMSO, London
Great Britain (1901) Basutoland: report for 1899–1900. Colonial reports—annual, No.313. HMSO,London
Harrison MSJ (1984) A generalized classification of South-African summer rain-bearing synopticsystems. J Climatol 4:547–560
Headlam C (ed) (1931) The Milner papers: South Africa 1897–1899. Cassell, LondonHirst AC, Hastenrath S (1983) Atmosphere–ocean mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Angola–
Tropical Atlantic sector. J Phys Oceanogr 13:1146–1157Hydén L (2002) The influence on summer rainfall in the Lesotho Lowlands from Indian Ocean SSTs.
Nord Hydrol 33:305–318Jury MR, Nkosi SE (2000) Easterly flow in the tropical Indian Ocean and climate variability over
south-east Africa. Water SA 26:147–152
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 651
Kelso C, Vogel CH (2007) The climate of Namaqualand in the nineteenth century. Clim Change83:357–380
King WR (1853) Campaigning in Kaffirland, or scenes and adventures in the Kaffir War of 1851–52.Saunders and Otley, London
Kirby PR (ed) (1939) The diary of Dr. Andrew Smith, vol 1. Van Riebeeck Society, Cape TownKirby PR (1965) Sir Andrew Smith, MD, KCB: his life, letters and works. Balkema, RotterdamLagden G (1909) The Basutos: the mountaineers and their country, vols 1 and 2. Hutchison, London.Landman WA, Goddard L (2005) Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination
of MOS and perfect prognosis. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15809. doi:10.1029/2005GL022910Landman WA, Botes S, Goddard L, Shongwe M (2005) Assessing the predictability of extreme
rainfall seasons over southern Africa. Geophys Res Lett 32:L23818. doi:10.1029/2005GL023965Lindesay JA (1988) South African Rainfall, the southern oscillation and a southern-hemisphere
semi-annual cycle. J Climatol 8:17–30Lindesay JA, Vogel CH (1990) Historical evidence for Southern Oscillation–southern African rain-
fall relationships. Int J Climatol 10:679–689Lindesay JA, Harrison MSJ, Haffner MP (1986) The Southern Oscillation and South African rainfall.
S Afr J Sci 82:196–198Lucas TJ (1878) Camp life and sport in South Africa. Chapman and Hall, LondonLye WF (ed) (1975) Andrew Smith’s journal of his expedition into the interior of South Africa,
1834–36. A.A. Balkema, RotterdamMacIntosh CW (1907) Coillard of the Zambesi. Fisher Unwin, LondonMason SJ (2001) El Niño, climate change, and southern African climate. Environmetrics 12:327–
345Mason SJ, Jury MR (1997) Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on
underlying processes. Prog Phys Geogr 21:23–50Montgomery HH (1925) Francis Balfour of Basutoland. Society for the Propagation of the Gospel
in Foreign Parts, LondonMulenga HM, Rouault M, Reason CJC (2003) Dry summers over northeastern South Africa and
associated circulation anomalies. Clim Res 25:29–41Nash DJ (1996) On the dry valleys of the Kalahari: documentary evidence of environmental change
in central southern Africa. Geogr J 162:154–168Nash DJ, Endfield GH (2002a) A nineteenth century climate chronology for the Kalahari region of
central southern Africa derived from missionary correspondence. Int J Climatol 22:821–841Nash DJ, Endfield GH (2002b) Historical flows in the dry valleys of the Kalahari identified from
missionary correspondence. S Afr J Sci 98:244–248Nash DJ, Endfield GH (2008) ‘Splendid rains have fallen’: links between El Niño and rainfall
variability in the Kalahari, 1840–1900. Clim Change 86:257–290Nel W, Sumner PD (2005) First rainfall data from the KZN Drakensberg escarpment edge (2002 and
2003). Water SA 31:399–402Nicholson SE (1981) The historical climatology of Africa. In: Wigley T, Ingram M, Farmer G (eds)
Climate and history. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 249–270Nicholson SE (1989) Long-term changes in African rainfall. Weather 44:47–56Nicholson SE (1995) Environmental change within the historical period. In: Adams WM, Goudie AS,
Orme AR (eds) The physical geography of Africa. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–87Nicholson SE (1997) An analysis of the ENSO signal in the tropical Atlantic and western Indian
oceans. Int J Climatol 17:345–375Nicholson SE (2000) The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to
millennia. Global and Planetary Change 26:137–158Nicholson SE (2001) Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries.
Climate Research 17:123–144Nicholson SE, Entekhabi D (1986) The quasi-periodic behaviour of rainfall variability in Africa
and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation. Arch Meteorol Geophys Bioklimatol Ser A 34:311–348
Nicholson SE, Entekhabi D (1987) Rainfall variability in equatorial and southern Africa: rela-tionships with sea surface temperatures along the southwestern coast of Africa. J Clim ApplMeteorol 26:561–578
Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to African rainfall.Int J Climatol 17:117–135
Ortlieb L (2000) The documented historical record of El Niño events in Peru: an update of theQuinn record (sixteenth through nineteenth centuries). In: Diaz HF, Markgraf V (eds) El Niño
652 Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653
and the southern oscillation, multiscale variability and global and regional impacts. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, pp 207–295
Písek J, Brázdil R (2006) Responses of large volcanic eruptions in the instrumental and documentaryclimatic data over Central Europe. Int J Climatol 26:439–459
Quinn WH, Neal VT (1995) The historical record of El Niño events. In: Bradbury RS, Jones P (eds)Climate since AD 1500 (revised edition). Chapman and Hall, London, pp 623–648
Reason CJC (1998) Warm and cold events in the southeast Atlantic/southwest Indian Ocean regionand potential impacts on circulation and rainfall over southern Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys69:49–65
Reason CJC (2007) Tropical cyclone Dera, the unusual 2000/01 tropical cyclone season in the SouthWest Indian Ocean and associated rainfall anomalies over Southern Africa. Meteorol AtmosPhys 97:181–188
Reason CJC, Jagadheesha D (2005a) Relationships between South Atlantic SST variability andatmospheric circulation over the South African region during austral winter. J Climate 18:3339–3355
Reason CJC, Jagadheesha D (2005b) A model investigation of recent ENSO impacts over southernAfrica. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:181–205
Reason CJC, Mulenga H (1999) Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies inthe Southwest Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 19:1651–1673
Reason CJC, Landman W, Tennant W (2006) Seasonal to decadal prediction of southern Africanclimate and its links with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:941–955
Renzaho AMN (2007) Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnan-cies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete Province, Mozambique. Prehosp DisasterMed 22:26–34
Richard Y, Fauchereau N, Poccard I, Rouault M, Trzaska S (2001) 20th century droughts in southernAfrica: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric condi-tions. Int J Climatol 21:873–885
Richardson FD, Hahn BD, Hoffman MT (2007) Modelling the sustainability and productivity ofpastoral systems in the communal areas of Namaqualand. J Arid Environ 70:701–717
Rocha A, Simmonds I (1997) Interannual variability of south-east African summer rainfall. Part I:relationships with air–sea interaction processes. Int J Climatol 17:235–265
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated withthe El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:1606–1626
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1989) Precipitation patterns associated with the high phase of theSouthern Oscillation. J Climate 2:268–284
Rouault M, Richard Y (2005) Intensity and spatial extent of droughts in southern Africa. GeophysRes Lett 32: article number L15702
Rouault M, Florenchie P, Fauchereau N, Reason CJC (2003) South East tropical Atlantic warmevents and southern African rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 30(5):8009. doi:10.1029/2002GL014840
Sauer JW, Theal GM (1883) Basutoland records: copies of official documents of various kinds,accounts of travellers, etc, vol 1. WA Richards, Cape Town, pp 1833–1852
Sene KJ, Jones DA, Meigh JR, Farquharson FAK (1998) Rainfall and flow variations in the LesothoHighlands. Int J Climatol 18:329–345
Shongwe ME, Landman WA, Mason SJ (2006) Performance of recalibration systems of GCMforecasts for Southern Africa. Int J Climatol 26:1567–1585
Showers K (2005) Imperial gullies: soil erosion and conservation in Lesotho. Ohio University Press,Athens
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007)Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Smith EW (1996) The Mabilles of Basutoland. Morija Museums and ArchivesTadesse T, Haile M, Senay G, Wardlow BD, Knutson CL (2008) The need for integration of drought
monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan Africa. Nat ResourForum 32:265–279
Theal GM (1908) History of South Africa since September 1795, vols 1 and 3. Swan Sonnenschein,London
Therrell MD, Stahle DW, Ries LP, Shugart HH (2006) Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall variability inZimbabwe. Clim Dyn 26:677–685
Thomson MC, Mason SJ, Phindela T, Connor SJ (2005) Use of rainfall and sea surface temperaturemonitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. Am J Trop Med Hyg 73:214–221
Climatic Change (2010) 101:617–653 653
Todd M, Washington R, Palmer P (2004) Water vapour transport associated with tropical-temperatetrough systems over Southern Africa and the Southwest Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 24:555–568
Tylden G (1950) The rise of the Basuto. Juta, Cape TownTyson PD (1986) Climatic change and variability in southern Africa. Oxford University Press, OxfordUsman MT, Reason CJC (2004) Dry spell frequencies and their variability over southern Africa.
Clim Res 26:199–211Van Heerden J, Terblanche DE, Schulze GC (1988) The southern oscillation and South African
summer rainfall. J Climatol 8:577–597Vogel CH (1988a) Climatic change in the Cape Colony, 1820–1900. S Afr J Sci 84:11Vogel CH (1988b) 160 years of rainfall in the Cape—has there been a change? S Afr J Sci 84:724–726Vogel CH (1989) A documentary-derived climatic chronology for southern Africa, 1820–1900. Clim
Change 14:291–306Walker ND, Lindesay JA (1989) Preliminary observations of oceanic influences on the February–
March 1988 floods in central South Africa. Int J Climatol 11:609–627Washington R, Todd M (1999) Tropical–temperate links in southern Africa and southwest Indian
Ocean satellite-derived daily rainfall. Int J Climatol 19:1601–1616Widdicombe J (1891) Fourteen years in Basutoland: a sketch of African mission life. Church Printing
Company, LondonWiddicombe J (1895) In the Lesuto: a sketch of African mission life. Society for Promoting Christian
Knowledge, LondonWilliams CJR, Kniveton DR, Layberry R (2007) Climatic and oceanic associations with daily rainfall
extremes over southern Africa. Int J Climatol 27:93–108Zinke J, Dullo W-Chr, Heiss GA, Eisenhauer A (2004) ENSO and Indian Ocean subtropical diploe
variability is recorded in a coral record off southwest Madagascar for the period 1659 to 1995.Earth Planet Sci Lett 228:177–194
Zinke J, Pfeiffer M, Timm O, Dullo W-Chr, Davies GR (2005) Atmosphere–ocean dynamics in theWestern Indian Ocean recorded in corals. Philos Trans R Soc A 363:121–142
