A THORPEX Pacific Predictability Experiment:

User and Social Science Research Perspectives

Rebecca E. MorssNational Center for Atmospheric Research

(Thanks to: Jeff Lazo, Brian Mills, Mary Altalo, and others)

THORPEX Societal and Economic Application (SEA) Research Ideas

• Identify high-impact weather forecasts• Assess the impact of improved forecasts• Develop advanced forecast verification measures• Estimate net benefits of improved forecast

systems• Develop new user-specific weather products• Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to

forecast centres throughout the world• Demonstration projects

Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts

• “High-impact weather forecasts are defined by their effect on society, the economy, and the natural environment”– (Improved) weather forecasts that can most

benefit society– Defined societally, not meteorologically

(although “forecasts of high-impact weather” are likely a subset)

• More specific definition needed because it underlies SEA and other THORPEX research

Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts

• Regionally, inventory and synthesize user needs for improved forecasts

Examples of Users

7Asian Regional Committee, Seoul, KoreaAsian Regional Committee, Seoul, Korea24 March 200424 March 2004

(From: THORPEX International Science Plan)

Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts

• Regionally, inventory and synthesize user needs for improved forecasts– e.g., in western U.S.: water, irrigation, and

power• Compare “busts” and “good” forecasts from

modeler, forecaster, and user perspectives• Examine indicators of weather-related risk/

opportunity and economic impacts for different users/sectors

Assess the Impact of Improved Forecasts

• Estimate value of current/improved forecasts via:– Modeling of user decisions

(idealized implementation: cost/loss models)

– Experimental economics (idealized → realistic)

– Non-market valuation

– Analysis of market data

– Non-economic methodologies

• Need baseline knowledge on socioeconomic impact of current forecast systems

Develop Advanced Forecast Verification Measures

• User-relevant verification: Tie verification measures to societal impacts measures

– For specific users or user sectors

– General, integrated measures

• Verification of probabilistic forecasts

• Verification of spatial/temporal characteristics of forecasted events

THORPEX Societal and Economic Application (SEA) Themes

• Identify high-impact weather forecasts• Assess the impact of improved forecasts• Develop advanced forecast verification measures• Estimate net benefits of improved forecast

systems• Develop new user-specific weather products• Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to

forecast centres throughout the world

Forecasts

Inputs (e.g., obs, DA)

Use

BenefitsCosts

Estimate Net Benefits = Costs Benefits

Analyze Costs

Assess /ValueImpacts

VerifyOther THORPEX

Research Forecasts

Inputs (e.g., obs, DA)

Use

BenefitsCosts

Estimate Net Benefits = Costs Benefits

Frame / Synthesize Evaluate proposed improvements

Estimate Net Benefits of Improved Forecast Systems

• Basic economic/policy framework exists• Combine results from

– THORPEX OSSEs and field campaigns, using appropriate verification measures

– THORPEX cost analyses– Estimates of impacts of improved forecasts

• Need baseline knowledge on benefits and costs of current systems

• Results help justify (motivate) programs and set priorities

Develop New Weather Products

• Collaborate with public and private sector users to develop new weather products:– About user-relevant variables (including risk and

uncertainty), at user-relevant space and time scales– At longer lead timesExample: irrigation, water, and power in Northwest

• Through research & development in: ensemble prediction, ensemble post-processing, decision support tools, user needs, current processes

• Interest in studying and improving communication of forecast uncertainty, using quantitative and qualitative methods

Facilitate Transfer to Forecast Centres Throughout the World

• Build local/regional THORPEX-related capacity among international forecast providers and users, emphasizing developing countries

• By building partnerships through WMO and existing centers, based on regional and local needs

• Possible foci for Pacific Experiment– Indigenous populations in Arctic

– GLOBE program: Community (primarily K-12) data collection and capacity building

Demonstration Projects

• Conduct SEA demonstration projects with each major THORPEX field campaign

• Multiple possible foci – develop in conjunction with overall project priorities– International Polar Year (IPY), 2007-8

• Transportation and energy production in Alaska

• Indigenous populations

– 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver

Issues / Questions

• Develop SEA component in conjunction with other components

• Areas to emphasize or deemphasize for Pacific Predictability Experiment?

• Need to coordinate between SEA and other program components, operational forecasting

• Who? Funding? How to draw in new expertise and leverage off existing work?

• Working group / conference call? If you are interested, let me know (morss@ucar.edu)