A weak SOX can Trump a Dow Theory Buy Signal

8/7/2019 A weak SOX can Trump a Dow Theory Buy Signal

1/5

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click

http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?

Apri l 5, 2011 A w eak SOX c an Trump a Dow Theor y Buy Signal

We are now operating under a Dow Theory Buy Signal as the Dow Industrial Average closed at

12,400.03 on Monday above its February 18

th

high at 12,391.29. Beware that the PhiladelphiaSemiconductor Index (SOX) is a drag in the opposite direction being down 9.5% from itsFebruary high. The Dow Industrials is up 0.1%, Dow Transports is up 1.4%, as is the Russell2000 versus February highs. The SOX thus questions the sustainability of the Dow Theory Buy

Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally We are operating under a ValuEngine ValuationWatch with more than 60% of all stocks overvalued. At Fridays close 61.1% of all stocks wereovervalued. In addition all 16 sectors are overvalued with 8 by double-digit percentages. A ValuEngineValuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. This last occurred at themid-February highs.

10-Year Note (3.431) The 10-Year yield is back below its 50-day simple moving average at 3.466,

which favors the flight to quality scenario. Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.537, 3.796 an4.016 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 3.275 and 3.181.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


2/5

Comex Gold ($1435.3) Gold is poised to move higher with daily closes above its 50-day simplemoving average at $1394.1. Daily and annual value levels are $1416.0 and $1356.5 semiannual,

weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1452.6, $1473.0, $1523.7 and $1559.9.


Nymex Crude Oil ($108.31) The daily chart is overbought with a new high for the move at $108.78.My annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with daily and semiannualpivots at $106.88 and $107.14, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at $110.68, $114.27 and$120.52.



3/5

The Euro (1.4215) My monthly pivot is 1.4170. The quarterly value level is 1.3401 with quarterly andweekly risky levels at 1.4308 and 1.4328.


Daily Dow: (12,400) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,317, 11,491, 10,959, and9,449 with monthly, daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,481, 12,510, 13,774 and 13,890.



4/5

Key Levels for the Other Major Equity Averages All major equity averages are overbought ontheir daily charts except for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which has a negativedaily chart. The SOX is below its 50-day simple moving average at 445.37.


S&P 500 (1332.9) My weekly pivot is 1328.1 with daily and monthly risky levels at 13481. and1360.0. My quarterly value level is 1277.7.

NASDAQ (2789) My weekly pivot is 2762 with daily and monthly risky levels at 2833 and 2898.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2335) My weekly pivot is 2329 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly riskylevels at 2384, 2477, 2590 and 2685.

Dow Utilities (415.16) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly pivots at 417.28

and 412.49 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.

Dow Transports (5379) My annual, weekly and monthly pivots are 5179, 5341 and 5371 with dailyrisky level at 5474.

Russell 2000 (849.36) Annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 778.81 with a weekly pivotat 848.50, and daily and monthly risky levels at 860.23 and 856.67.

The SOX (429.05) My weekly pivot is 427.31 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at444.45, 452.34, 498.75 and 531.14.


5/5

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard Suttmeier

Chief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please clickhttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our productsand services visit www.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issuesand find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Documents

A weak SOX can Trump a Dow Theory Buy Signal