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Natural gas Même si les gaz de schiste sont toujours contestés, il est de plus en plus probable que
l’avenir de la production gazière mondiale reposera en grande partie sur ces derniers
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
1A World of Energy2015 Edition
Published in November 2015
Strategy Department – Economics, Prices and Markets
3
ForewordA World of Energy 2015 focused on energy transition
Energy is right at the heart of climate change issues, and current developments demonstrate the reality of energy transition. This 2015 edition looks at the changes gradually altering the global energy market, taking account of the many regional variations in timing and form.
The most striking sign of the transformation of world’s energy system is the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). This spectacular change is not confined to the increase in renewable power capacity, but extends to its integration into the electricity market and European gas network.
RES development is still concentrated among a limited number of world players. Taken together, the European Union, USA, China and Japan represent 80% of the increase in world capacity. Tomorrow’s challenge will be to extend RES to the rest of the planet. This is especially true of sub-Saharan Africa, where over half of the population lacks access to electricity.
Inspired by scientists who have provided irrefutable evidence of global warming to the IPCC, the energy transition needs political will.
Major world economies such as the USA and China are now following Europe’s lead. But initiatives are being launched on a local scale too: provinces and cities are also introducing carbon pricing systems.
France is part of this trend. It passed energy transition legislation in 2015, fixes new standards on buildings, encourages the full range of RES, such as biomethane, and of course has organized COP21.
Change in RES power capacity: Introduction - RES (p. 32 and 33) Introduction – Electricity production (p.24 and 25), Electricity chapter (p. 88 to 99)
Impact on the European market Electricity prices in Europe (p.57) Introduction - Natural gas (p.16 and 17) and Natural gas chapter, European consumption (p. 88)
Environmental challenges Introduction – 5th IPCC report, COP21 expectations and national commitments ahead of the conference (p.34 to 39)
France chapter – Energy transition bill (p.114 and 115); 2012 thermal regulation (p.116), biomethane (p.127)
4
A positive trend, but has it cut CO2 emissions?
World emissions did decline in 2014, but above all because slower economic growth in emerging countries – particularly China – significantly lowered coal consumption. That said, emissions are steadily declining in Europe and the USA as a result of various environmental policies.
The International Energy Agency scenarios presented in this report include emissions forecasts. For example, the ‘New Policies’ scenario incorporates the national commitments (INDC) submitted ahead of COP21 and suggests that they will not be sufficient to limit global warming to two degrees. Drastic cuts in fossil fuel consumption would be required to meet that goal.
This report also highlights geographical trends in the production and demand of fossil fuels,
which continue to dominate the world energy mix. The time limit on their consumption can now be regarded for all practical purposes as unlimited, as unconventional gas and oil exploitation has postponed the depletion of reserves to a distant future. In the meantime, abundant supply and low prices limit the chances of reduced fossil fuel use. The IEA’s ‘450’ scenario incorporate a continuing fall in RES costs, enhanced energy efficiency, the elimination of subsidies for fossil energies and the substitution of combined-cycle gas units for coal plants. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel in the 450 scenario to maintain its market share.
Beyond political decisions and market choices, energy transition relies on individuals and businesses. The ENGIE group’s strategy is based on local support for energy transition via the development of renewable hydro, solar and wind power, the promotion of biogas, the complementarity of electric RES with natural gas and all in association with demand management services.
Particular attention is paid to decentralised RES power generation solutions. Apart from helping to meet the needs of people not necessarily connected to a power grid, they can offer a better fit with what our customers want.
Corporate Strategy Director Édouard Sauvage
Change in oil, coal and natural gas market fundamentals:
The recent changes and challenges are presented in the Introduction.
For detailed figures, see: Oil chapter Coal chapter Natural gas chapter
Change in energy prices: See Prices & Costs chapter (p.51 to 66)
ENGIE’s profile and key figures p.5 and 6
Change in CO2 emissions:
CO2 chapter (p.105 to 110)
Energy demand forecasts within the IEA New Policies and 450 scenarios: see demand by energy type tables
152,900 employees throughout the world
• incl. 58,200 in power
and natural gas
• and 94,700 in energy services
€ 74.7billion
in 2014 revenues
Operations in 70 countries
6-7billion of net
investment per year over
2014-2016
900 researchers
and experts at 11 R&D centers
develops its businesses
(power, natural gas, energy
services) around a model based on
responsible growth to take on the major challenges
of energy’s transition to a low-carbon economy:
access to sustainable energy, climate-change
mitigation and adaptation, security of supply and the
rational use of resources.
The Group provides individuals, cities and businesses
with highly efficient and innovative solutions largely
based on its expertise in four key sectors: renewable
energy, energy efficiency, liquefied natural gas
and digital technology.
ENGIE employs 152,900 people worldwide
and achieved revenues of €74.7 billion in 2014.
The Group is listed on the Paris and Brussels stock
exchanges (ENGI) and is represented in the main
international indices: CAC 40, BEL 20, DJ Euro Stoxx
50, Euronext 100, FTSE Eurotop 100, MSCI Europe
and Euronext Vigeo (World 120, Eurozone 120,
Europe 120 and France 20).
ENGIE profileKey figures at December 31, 2014
6
7
POWER*
No.1 independent power producer
(IPP) in the world
No.1 independent power producer
(IPP) in the Persian Gulf countries,
Brazil and Thailand.
No.6 supplier in Europe
115.3 GW of installed
power-production capacity
10.5 GW of power-production
capacity under construction
19 GW of installed
power-production capacity in
renewable energy (16.5% of the base)
NATURAL GAS
A supply portfolio of 1,296 TWh
(120 bcm)
No.3 seller in Europe
No.1 distribution network in Europe
No.2 transport network in Europe
No.1 vendor of storage capacity
in Europe
346 exploration and/or production
licenses in 17 countries
759 mboe of proven
and probable reserves
LNG
No.1 importer of LNG in Europe
No.3 LNG portfolio in the world
No.2 operator of LNG terminals
in Europe
A LNG supply portfolio of 245 TWh
(16.4 mtpa) from 6 countries.
A fleet of 14 LNG tankers inc. two
regasification vessels
Energy services
No.1 supplier of energy efficiency
services in the world
230 district cooling and heating
networks operated in 12 countries
140 million m2 managed in the
tertiary sector* Including 100% of capacity of the Group’s assets regardless of actual holding rate
9
Contents
09 Introduction The main themes in a changing world
energy environment & 2014-2015 news
41 Economy and energy overview
49 Energy prices & costs
65 Oil
73 Coal
79 Natural gas
93 Electricity
105 CO2
111 Focus on France
131 Focus on Belgium
143 Appendix 1 Prospective scenarios & Sources
151 Appendix 2 Conversions & Glossary
159 Contacts
11
Demand for natural gas fluctuates according to the weather and its competitiveness against coal. This can mean substantial variations from one year to the next, such as between 2014 and 2015. That said, the share of natural gas in the energy mix is very stable over the long term, confirming the major role it is expected to play in the energy transition.
2014 provided some measure of the extent of current structural change: consumption stabilised in developed countries, two thirds of new capacity was located in China and India, RES became the second source of electricity production, energy access for all is one of the main electrical current issues.
A strong market imbalance: on one hand weaker demandthan expected, on the other, a booming offer driven by US shale oils, maintaining production of Iraq, Iran and Syria – despite geopolitical instability – and the change of strategy of Saudi Arabia. In this context prices collapsed end-2014 and did not regain support in 2015.
Coal production declined in 2014: an early sign of a greener energy supply? It is of course much too early to say, especially as the Chinese slowdown had a major impact.
Nevertheless, the breakthrough of RES, the development of shale gas and heightened awareness of environmental issues weigh against.
RES share of world electricity generation amounted to an unprecedented 45% of net additional capacity in 2014. Buoyed by wind and solar power, 80% of this expansion is concentrated in China, the EU, the US and Japan.
The next objective is to spread RES worldwide, and especially in Africa.
Year 2015 elapsed in a context of preparation to the COP21; final conclusions are unknown as we go to press, yet the announced commitments appear so far insufficient to reduce CO2
emissions down to the “2-degrees” objective, even if they undeniably lead future emissions down.
IntroductionThe main themes in a changing world energy environment
and 2014-2015 news
NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY OIl COAL ENR CO2
12
Economy While economic slowdown persists in emerging countries, the rebound in activity recorded in advanced countries
supports global recovery
Less than -1%
Between -1 and 0%
Between 0 and 1%
Between 1 and 2%
Between 2 and 4%
Between 4 and 6%
Over 6%
GDP GROWTH RATE BY COUNTRY IN 2014
World GDP increased 3,4% in 2014, to $77,700 billion.
World energy consumption in 2014: 13.7 Gtoe (up 0.5% from 2013) – Average per capita consumption: 1.9 toe.
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy
& CO2 Data (September 2015)
13
See
Macro-economy
details
p. 42 à 43
Economy While economic slowdown persists in emerging countries, the rebound in activity recorded
in advanced countries supports global recovery
1 Having faltered in 2013, world economic growth picked up again in 2014 (GDP up 3.4%). Another slowdown in emerging countries such as China and Russia has been offset by stronger activity in some advanced countries. The situation is mixed, however, with Anglophone countries and some euro zone members (parti-
cularly Germany) posting relatively robust growth but others, including Japan, Italy and France, reporting decelerating activity. According to the IMF, world GDP will be 3.5% higher in 2015.
2 Vigorous performance in Anglophone economies has been underpinned by hi-gher household consumption and business investment, themselves stemming from a clear improvement in labour markets. Unemployment declined and growth rebounded in both the USA (2.4% in 2014, after 2.2% in 2013) and the UK (2.8% after 1.7%), prompting their central banks to adopt less accommodating monetary policies. The Federal Reserve ended its asset purchases in October 2014. In contrast, the Japanese economy is weakening again. The country’s GDP relapsed in 2014 (-0.1%) and growth remained unconvincing in 2015 (up 0.4% in Q1, down 0.6% in Q2), reflecting a slump in household consumption following an excessively swift rise in VAT in April 2014 (from 5% to 8%) and markedly lower imports in its main economic partners, the USA and China. Monetary policy therefore remains expansionary (so-called Abe-nomics), but according to the IMF structural reforms will have to be undertaken as well.
3 After two years of recession, growth in the euro zone picked up to a modest 0.9% in 2014. Despite stagnating business investment, private consumption improved on the back of the disinflation partly derived from lower oil prices. The ECB eased monetary conditions by cutting its key interest rate twice; by driving the euro lower against other major currencies, this helped external trade. The recovery masks significant disparities, however, with Germany (1.6%) and Spain (1.4% after a 1.2% drop in 2013) gaining from improving labour markets but France recording its lowest growth rate in four years (0.4%) and Italy suffering recession (-0.4%) for the third consecutive year.
4 In emerging countries, growth slowed for the fourth year in a row (4.4% in 2014 after an annual average 6.2% in 2000-2010). This can be attributed to the sluggish recovery in world trade as well as shorter-term difficulties and specific pressures. Of particular note is the deterioration in Brazil (0.1%), hit by both lower commodity prices and capital outflows, and in Russia (0.6%), hit by sanctions related to the Ukrainian crisis and the drop in oil prices. Having posted its lowest growth rate since 1990, China seems to have embarked on a new phase of its development. Neither rate cuts by the central bank nor increased government investment – notably in railways – have been able to contain the slowdown on the property market, where average home prices have fallen. According to the IMF, growth will have slowed to 6.8% in 2015 and will decelerate further to 6.3% in 2016.
14
See
Energy overview
p. 42 à 43
Energy mix Although world growth accelerated, energy demand increased only very modestly in 2014
1 In 2014, energy demand progressed more slowly (by 0.5%) since the late 1990s, financial crisis apart. Faster world economic growth did not produce a matching rebound in energy consumption in either emerging or OECD countries, resulting in a remarkable 3% drop in energy intensity compared with an annual 1%
trend decline. This decoupling between economic growth and energy demand originated from two main factors: Chinese energy demand stagnated in 2014, chiefly due to structural changes in the economy; and European energy consumption declined amid unusually clement weather.
2 Since the beginning of the decade, the growth in energy demand has been less and less vigorous in emerging countries, rising by an annual average 4.6% in non-OECD economies in 2000-2011 but by 4.0% in 2012-13 and just 1.2% in 2014. This trend was general: demand from Asia, Latin America and Africa rose only 1% in 2014, and it did not rise at all in the CIS. Slower economic growth is not enough to explain this phenomenon. Unusually mild weather had a major impact in some Asian countries; the situation was more complex in China, which represents almost a quarter of world energy demand and combined an economic growth rate 7.4% in 2014 with a 0.2% drop in energy demand (about 5 points less than in 2013). It seems that the economic environment described above caused slower growth in electricity production (up 4% after 7.5% in 2013), which softened demand for coal that was already weakened by robust hydro production (coal consumption dropped 3%). More fundamentally, structural changes to the Chinese economy have stabilised output from the particularly energy-intensive steel and cement sectors. Above all, the electricity and the manufacturing industries made spectacular progress in energy efficiency (a 7% improvement in 2014).
3 After two years of decline and a slight pickup in 2013, energy demand in OECD countries remains fragile (-0.7% in 2014). In the USA, economic recovery and very low en-ergy prices reflecting historically high energy production contributed to the second consecutive annual gain in consumption (up 1.1%) after a decade of gradual deceleration. Energy demand decreased sharply in the EU (-4.1%). Mild European weather in 2014 (warmest year in France since 1900, new records in the UK, Belgium, Spain and Germany) contributed greatly to weaker demand, notably for natural gas (-11%), as did continuing efforts to improve energy efficiency.
4 The energy mix has changed slightly. Having been bolstered by robust demand from emerging countries for several years, coal consumption decreased 0.7% in 2014 because of lower demand in China, which represents half of total demand. The marginal 0.3% increase in demand for natural gas meant that oil posted the strongest increase (0.4%) in consumption among fossil fuels for the first time since 1997. The biggest increase in was for renewable energies, buoyed by supportive measures ahead of COP21 (see pages on CO
2). Production of solar energy jumped 15% in 2014. Lastly, the increase in world
consumption stemmed exclusively from emerging countries, although to a much lesser extent than in previous years. The share of OECD countries in the world energy mix was above 50% fifteen years ago but is now well below 40%.
15
1970
19
72
1974
19
76
1978
19
80
1982
19
84
1986
19
88
1990
19
92
1994
19
96
1998
20
00
2002
20
04
2006
20
08
2010
20
12
201
4
Jan
./oct
.20
15
Cu
rre
nt
$ p
er
ba
rre
l
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Energy mix The stagnation of energy demand helped prices down and allowed CO
2 emissions to stabilize
Brent (current $, annual average) Source: GDF SUEZ Trading
BRENT SPOT PRICE, 1970-OCTOBER 2015
Source: World
Energy Outlook
2015© OECD/IEA,
2015
SHARE OF EACH ENERGY RESOURCE IN WORLD PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 1971-2014 (%)
CO2 EMISSIONS RELATED TO ENERGY COMBUSTION, 1971-2014
Other RES
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
World OECD non-OECD Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Oil Coal & lignite Natural gas RES excluding hydro Nuclear Hydro Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
CHANGE IN WORLD PRIMARY DEMAND TO 2040IEA NEW POLICIES SCENARIO (WEO 2015)
Billio
ns o
f to
nn
es o
f C
O2
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 +133%
10
0 5
15
25
35
50 45
20
30
40
31% 29%
21%
5% 11%
2%
%
Sh
are
in 2
014
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2014
2,000
0
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
20,000
18,000
2013 2020 2040
Share in 2040
0.4%
0.4%
1.4%
2.2%7%
24%
26%
25%
6.5%
5%10%3%1.1%
1.8%
Annual average changefrom 2013 to 2040
16
Natural gas The economic and environmental context has weighed heavily on natural gas demand.
But consumption remains robust in the USA, Asia and the Middle East
Primary natural gas consumption in bcm
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Share of each region in 2014 %
Annual average growth rate
Change
1980-2014 2000-2014 2013-2014Europe 311 379 507 574 595 550 535 532 480 14% 1% -0.4% -10%
European Union 305 367 483 535 545 494 479 475 421 12% 1% -1% -11%CIS 387 704 567 622 655 674 664 651 642 18% 1% 1% -1%North America 616 602 753 716 780 796 828 847 867 25% 1% 1% 2%
USA 563 535 661 623 683 692 723 738 757 22% 1% 1% 3%Latin America 58 86 136 176 220 220 229 236 243 7% 4% 4% 3%Asia 60 145 285 391 551 591 616 634 647 18% 7% 6% 2%
China 14 16 25 47 106 129 144 166 181 5% 8% 15% 9%Japan 26 58 84 89 110 127 132 132 134 4% 5% 3% 1%
Pacific 10 23 29 31 39 41 40 41 44 1% 4% 3% 7%Africa 14 35 57 89 106 115 120 117 116 3% 6% 5% -1%Middle East 35 86 178 255 375 395 410 432 466 13% 8% 7% 8%World 1,491 2,060 2,511 2,855 3,321 3,381 3,444 3,490 3,505 100% 3% 2% 0.4%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN 1970-2014AND BREAKDOWN BY REGION IN 2014 (%)
CHANGE IN PRIMARY NATURAL GAS CONSUMTION IN 2014 (%)
USA CIS Europe Asia Japan Pacific Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 22%
18%
14%
18%
1% 4%
2013
2014
1971
19
74
1977
19
80
1983
19
86
1989
19
92
1995
19
98
2001
2004
2007
2010
Gm
3
Re
gio
na
l sh
are
s in
2014
World
0,4%
OECD
-2%
USA
3%
EU 28
-11%Russia
-1%
Middle-East
8%
Asia
2%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
India
-5%
Japan
1%
China
9%
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
17
Natural gas After a gloomy 2014, consumption will have rebounded in Western markets in 2015.
But it remains fairly weak in Asian markets
1 Following gains of 1.9% in 2012 and 1.4% in 2013, world gas demand nearly stalled in 2014 (up 0.4%). It collapsed in the EU and decelerated in Asia, bringing total gas demand growth to a 20-year low (financial crisis apart). The most conspicuous feature of 2014 was a spectacular 11% drop in EU
gas consumption that left it at its mid-1990s level. The expansion of RES to the detriment of natural gas in electricity production was one factor, but the biggest was exceptionally mild weather (20% warmer daytime temperatures than in 2013, and 10% on average), particularly during winter.In the USA, consumption picked up again in 2014 (up 3%). High domestic produc-tion, notably of shale gas (see below) contributed to keep prices at very low levels (around $3.5/MMBtu, see Energy prices and costs chapter), while the weather was colder than both the year before and relative to normal levels in the 11 biggest gas-consuming states.Demand in emerging countries was not as vigorous as over the past decade. Gas de-mand continued to decline in Africa (-1% in 2014, -2.5% in 2013), but the main reason was slower demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region (2%, compared with a 10-year average of 6%). In Chi-na, the world’s third largest consumer, gas demand mirrored economic growth by progressing at a lower rate than in previous years (9% in 2014 after13% in 2013). India, much more modest gas consumer, failed to make this energy more attractive. Hence, its consumption has been declining for three years (-5% in 2014). Some regions bucked the trend, notably Latin America (up 3% in both 2013 and 2014) and the Middle East (up 8% after 5% in 2013 and 4% in 2012).
2 Demand is set to recover in 2015 in Europe, as temperatures have so far been cooler than in 2014 (closer to normal), electricity generation from gas has increased and gas prices are down (oil-indexed and spot prices). Over the first half of the year, EU gas consumption rose markedly (9%) relative to the same period the year before (source: Eurogas). While a return to normal weather conditions was one of the main contributors to this recovery, stronger industrial activity (thanks to a more competitive euro) played a part, as did the increase in electricity generated from gas resulting from low hydro power generation in Germany and Italy, less wind power in Spain and lower gas prices. According to Eurogas estimates, gas demand will have risen nearly 7% in Europe in 2015. In North America, where gas production remains robust and prices historically low (8.5$/MWh at the Henry Hub in H1), gas demand continues to expand (up 5% in H1 2015 compared to H1 2014). In contrast, consumption in Asia slackened, from Japan to South Korea, China and India, as reflected in the 5% fall in LNG imports over H1.
3 Within a more and more proactive approach to energy transition, gas stands out as the best fossil energy option, particularly in terms of complementarity with RES and carbon content. This explains why in longer-term scenarios, whatever the level of environmental regulation, i.e. also under Factor 4 scenarios such as the EIA’s 450 scenario, consumption increases worldwide, albeit at different rates depending on the region. The latest EIA prospective report, the so-called 2015 WEO, points to a 1.4% annual rise until 2040 under the reference scenario (New Policies) and a 0.6% annual rise under the 450 scenario (see gas chapter p.79).
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
18
Natural gas US shale gas production alone drove world gas production in 2014
1 After a smaller gain in 2013 (1%), world gas production picked slightly up in 2014 (1.6%). Given particularly soft consumption, this rise contributed to the decline in gas prices over the year.
The marked increase in US production (6%, twice the 10-year average) made up most (80%) of the world’s additional production in 2014. In terms of sources, most of the progression was from shale gas (up 13%). As Russian production dropped 4.3% in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis and the reduction of exports towards the EU, the USA bolstered its global lead with 730 bcm, ahead of Russia with 643 bcm, and now accounts for over a fifth (21%) of world production.
EU production fell 10% to its early 1970s level. A major factor was the Dutch government’s decision to slash output from the Groningen gas field to prevent repeated earth tremors in the region; the Netherlands is the EU’s top producer with 70 bcm and its production was down 18.7%. The stability of Norwegian production at 108 bcm is also worthy of note.
Up 5.2% in 2014, Iranian production could rise even more quickly after an agreement with major international powers on 14 July 2015. The country has immense gas reserves.
The regional balance could shift in the coming years, with production in Qatar up just 0.4% in 2014 – Iran is already world’s third-largest producer (174 bcm), ahead of Qatar (164 bcm). Ano-ther important new in the Mediterranean basin concerns Egypt, which for years saw its output plummeting (-13.4% in 2014) with the depletion of its scope (-3.4% in 2014), with the discovery of a giant field at 100 km from Egyptian coasts (announcement by the operator ENI in last august). The field Zuhr would be the largest ever discovered in this region (estimated at 850 bcm or 5.5 Gbl oil). It is an unexpected chance for Egypt, which may limit its energy de-pendence and create a regional hub in the Eastern Mediterranean.
2 Shale gas already holds a fair share of the world gas market and is set to make further gains. Despite strong public opposition in a number of countries, and in Europe in particular, unconventional gas production will expand in China, Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and of course North America. Shale gas will make up a third of world gas production by 2040, up from 18% in 2014. This means that 60% of additional gas production will be unconventional, according to the EIA’s latest projections (2015 WEO). However, for the time being and until the end of this decade, only North America and to a much smaller extent China are benefiting from this resource (in 2014, 80% of shale gas production came from the USA, 10% from Canada and 10% from China, Australia and Russia together).
3 World LNG trade stalled in 2013 (up 0.1%) but rose more significantly in 2014 (up 2%). LNG imports fell 4% in Europe. Conversely, Asian demand remained robust in 2014 (up 2%), although this represented a deceleration from 2013 (+3.8%). Korean demand in parti-cular declined 7% as nuclear plants were brought back into service. Indian LNG imports grew slightly from 2014 due to economic growth.
LNG accounted for around 9% of world gas supply in 2014. Two liquefaction plants started operating in 2014 (Papua New Guinea LNG for 7 Mtpa and Queensland Curtis LNG in Australia). Qatar dominates LNG exports (a 32% market share), followed by Malaysia (10%) and Australia (9%). Production stopped in Yemen early 2015 due to the conflict between government forces and rebels.
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
19
0
15
10
5
20
25
30
35
40
50
55
45
Jan.
-05
Jan.-0
6
Jan.-0
7
Jan.-0
8
Jan.-0
9
Jan.-1
0
Jan.
-11
Jan.
-12
July
-05
July
-06
July
-07
July
-08
July
-09
July
-10
July
-11
Jui-1
2Ja
n.-1
3Ju
i-13
Jan.
-14
Jui-1
4Ja
n.-1
5Ju
i-15
Natural gas Without support on the demand side and a fair degree of comfort on the supply side,
natural gas prices slide to very low levels at end-2015
1 Natural gas prices on the three major regional markets (USA, Europe and OECD Asia) in 2014 and H1 2015:In the USA, prices remained extremely low. In a context of declining oil prices, the Henry Hub price rose slightly in 2014 to an average $4/Mmbtu (€11/MWh) before returning to $3/Mmbtu (€8/MWh) in H1 2015.
In Europe, spot prices were successively torn between supply pressures, particularly Russian flows following the Ukrainian conflict, and mild weather throughout 2014 and over the first part of 2015. Towards the end of 2015, with the European market appearing well supplied (LNG flows from Asia, increased production in Norway and reassurance over imports from Russia) and the late onset of winter, spot prices fell to a 5-year low (the NBP price neared €17/MWh in mid-November). Long-term prices eased in 2014 and 2015 in line with oil prices and closed on NBP and TTF prices. In OECD Asia prices are still strictly indexed on oil, but the fall in spot prices in 2014-15 has put this practice into question. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) traded at an average $13.9 $/Mmbtu in 2014; the $2.7/Mmbtu drop was the largest since 2011 and left Asian LNG prices close to those in south-western Europe (Spain). This situation persisted in H1 2015, mirroring lower oil prices and slower LNG demand growth in OECD Asia.
2 Moreover, the issue relating to the price differential between long term contracts and spot mar-ket has not gone away. It stems from the coexistence of two price mechanisms (long-term supply contracts and the spot market) in a context of oversupply since 2009. Because of stiff competition between companies selling to final customers, spot prices have become the benchmark and European midstreamers have had to negotiate with producers to obtain changes to long-term contract prices in terms of level and indexation on market prices. Some have initiated arbitration proceedings to settle persistent disagreement with producers. Most of the decisions handed down have been in favour of buyers, with the obligation in some cases to switch to market indexation. Today prices are converging in North European markets. For example, the basket of contracts used for defining regulated tariffs in France is now around 80% indexed on the spot market. Nevertheless, some historical contracts remain based on oil indexation.
CHANGE IN INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS PRICES (€/MWH)
BAFA Japan Henry Hub NBP
Source: IHS (October 2015)
Gas price €/MWh
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
2013/ 2014
H1 2015/ 2014
BAFA 20.7 26.1 29.4 27.6 23.4 21.7 -15% -7%
NBP (RU) 16.9 22.2 25.1 27.4 21.2 21.6 -23% 2%
Henry Hub 11.3 9.9 7.5 9.6 11.0 8.5 15% -23%
Brent ($/bl) 80.3 110.9 111.7 108.8 99.5 59.3 -9% -40%
1 € = $ 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 2% -16%
Sources: GDF SUEZ Trading for NBP, Brent, HH and EUR / USD exchange rate;
B3G - Strategy department for BAFA
NB: BAFA= Natural gas average import price in Germany published by german customs
20
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
o/w USA: 21% Canada: 5%
o/w China: 4%India: 1%o/w Iran: 5%Qatar: 5%
o/w Russia: 18%
2% 12%
17%
24%
7% 6% 7%
25%
bc
m
1971 1975
1979 1983
1987 1991
1995 1999
2003 2007
2011 2014
Natural gas Despite objections, it is becoming increasingly likely that unconventional gas will play
a leading role in world gas production
North America Latin America Africa Europe CIS Middle East Asia Pacific
Sources: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION AND MARKET SHARE IN 2014 (%)Unconventional and conventional gas reserves around the world.
Amongst unconventional gases, coal bed methane (CBM) should be distin-guished from tight gas and shale gas. Unconventional gas reserves consist mainly of shale gas (62%), whereas tight gas accounts for 24% and CBM for 14%.
Unconventional gas production started with CBM towards the end of the 20th century. Exploitation of shale gas and tight gas fields is more difficult and requires specific drilling techniques (horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing).
Shale gas production has not really taken off yet apart from in the United States and Canada. Australia produces CBM. Other regions with production plans are still at an exploratory stage (Asia-Pacific, China, India, Argentina, South Africa, Algeria, etc.). In Europe, where drilling has been so far disappointing, shale gas is developing only marginally.
The world’s reserves of unconventional gas represent 42% (344 Tm3) of total recoverable gas resources.* That would put total conventional and unconventional gas reserves at 781 Tm3, or 222 years consumption. Note that unconventional gas is more evenly spread geo-graphically than conventional gas.
The world’s conventional gas reserves are concentrated in the Middle East (40%), Russia (17%) and in the Caspian Sea (11%). Middle Eastern suppliers are likely to expand their gas production in order to meet growing domestic demand and export requirements.
*Recoverable reserves are subdivided according to the probability that they will be put into production: 90% for proven reserves, 50% for probable reserves, 10% for possible reserves (See “Reserves” in the glossary)
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
21
Natural gas Despite objections, it is becoming increasingly likely that unconventional gas
will play a leading role in world gas production
CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL GAS RESOURCES – TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE RESOURCES AT END-2013 BY REGION (TM3)
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (2014)
Conventional gas
CBM
Shale gas
Tight gas
Conventional gas: recoverable resources
Unconventional gas: resources
See
Natural Gas
details
p. 77 à 89
22
See
Electricity
details
p. 93 à 104
Electricity Contraction of demand in OECD countries confirmed, mixed picture in emerging countries
1 World energy demand is rising more slowly than it was at the start of the decade. It increased 1.3% in 2014, compared with 2.6% per year in 2010-13, re-flecting a trend deceleration in OECD countries and less vigorous growth in emerging countries. Weather conditions in some countries, and notably an unusually mild winter
in 2014, exacerbated the trend in residential and services consumption (see table).
2 OECD countries’ share of electricity demand has been steadily receding since 2009. It is now 46%, down from 58% in 2005 and 51% in 2010. This trend was particularly marked in 2014 in the EU (-3.3%) and in Japan (-2.4%); North America’s share has been un-changed for two years.
3 In the EU, the trend is common to all sectors, including residential (-3.6%). In contrast, residential demand has been stable or has risen slightly in North America, Russia and the Pacific region and has increased strongly elsewhere.
4 In North America, industrial demand is weakening. Total North American demand has stalled, largely because of a continual decline in industrial electricity demand since 2011 (-2.2% per year on average). Unlike in Europe, this trend has been offset by modest growth in demand from the services and residential sectors (up 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, in 2014).
5 Asia-Pacific now represents 43% of world electricity demand. The Chinese and Indian industrial sectors accounted for almost 60% of the increase in world demand in 2014 (111 TWh and 34 TWh, respectively, out of a total 1.3% increase worth 246 TWh).
6 Chinese electricity demand has slowed. Its rate of increase halved between 2013 and 2014, from 7.5% to 3.8%. All sectors are concerned, although services electricity demand rose 6.4%.
7 Services are driving growth in emerging countries. As in China, services account for the biggest increases in demand in most emerging countries: up 8.4% in India, up 7.3% in Brazil and up 3.9% in Turkey, for example.
8 Africa is lagging. Electricity consumption growth is still sluggish (up 0.6% in 2014), des-pite significant needs. After a decade of rapid expansion (4.3% per year in 2000-10), it has been anaemic for three years in a row. This stems partly from much slower economic growth in North Africa (growth halved since the events of 2011) and South Africa, and partly from chronic shortcomings in infrastructure and rising loss rates (technical and “non technical”) over the past five years.
23
Electricity In 2014, the Asia-Pacific region represented 43% of world demand, against 27% in 2000.
Europe, North America and Japan shares down since 2010
WORLD ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY REGION IN 2014 AND MARKET SHARE (EN %)
ADDITIONAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY REGION IN 2014 (VS. 2013)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
North America Latin America Europe CIS Middle East Africa Asia & Pacific
Final consumption
Residential final consumption
Services final consumption
Agriculture final consumption
Industry final consumption
Transport final consumption
Sectors final consumption
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
Europe 930 -3.3% 911 -3.0% 62 -2.1% 1,147 -2.3% 66 -3.0% 3,115 -2.8%
European Union 799 -3.6% 805 -3.4% 51 -2.8% 955 -3.1% 61 -3.1% 2,670 -3.3%
North America 1,554 0.4% 1,637 0.5% 9 -1.0% 1,019 -2.1% 8 1.6% 4,227 -0.1%
USA 1,399 0.6% 1,487 0.7% n.a. n.a. 829 -2.3% 7 2.0% 3,723 0.0%
Latin America 348 4.4% 291 3.7% 44 0.5% 555 -0.5% 5 -0.1% 1,243 1.9%
Brazil 132 5.7% 135 7.3% 24 1.4% 204 -2.8% 2 -0.9% 497 2.2%
Asia 1,590 2.1% 1,573 3.0% 305 4.9% 4,601 3.8% 102 5.1% 8,180 3.4%
China 693 2.2% 654 6.4% 99 -0.2% 3,100 3.7% 60 7.1% 4,606 3.8%
India 219 8.4% 145 8.4% 176 8.4% 440 8.4% 18 8.4% 998 8.4%
Pacific 74 0.3% 76 0.3% 4 5.5% 95 0.3% 4 0.2% 255 0.4%
CIS 223 -0.4% 212 -0.1% 47 0.7% 493 0.0% 83 0.0% 1,058 -0.1%
Russia 138 0.4% 162 0.4% 16 0.4% 332 0.4% 67 0.4% 714 0.4%
Middle East 372 7.1% 253 6.0% 46 6.2% 197 3.0% 0 7.8% 868 5.8%
Africa 194 3.1% 108 -5.5% 26 39.8% 246 -1.4% 6 4.4% 583 0.6%
World 5,285 1.0% 5,060 0.9% 543 4.6% 8,352 1.5% 274 1.2% 19,529 1.3%
Source: Enerdata. Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
TW
h
43%
4% 6% 22%
3%
7% 21%
Regional shares in 2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Europe
CIS
Latin AmericaMiddle East
China
India
Rest of Asia Africa
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
TW
hSee
Electricity
details
p. 93 à 104
24
Electricity A lower share of fossil fuels in world electricity production and a higher share for RES,
now the second source after coal
1 World electricity production growth faltered in 2014, with European production falling again. World electricity production growth slowed from 2.2% in 2013 to 1.5% in 2014. Production contracted 2% in Europe rose just 0.3% in North America. On the longer-term view, production is rising steadily worldwide after stalling
in 2009 (an annual average 2.4% increase in 2010-14), while the European production trend is clearly downward (an annual average -1.5% in the EU 28 in 2010-14).
2 The share of coal has started to contract. Coal still dominates world production, but posted a decline for the first time in 2014, easing from 41% in 2013 to 40.6%. This phenomenon was apparent in almost all regions, including China, although it rose further in India to a record 74% in 2014. In North America, the share of coal has fallen markedly over the last decade but it still remains the leading source of electricity generation (36%). In Europe, RES overtook coal two years ago in Europe (coal 25%, RES 33%) and in 2014 in the EU (26% and 30%, respectively), cf. table p. 95.
3 The share of natural gas in world production is unchanged, stabilising at 21.4% in 2014. In absolute terms, the additional electricity production from gas-fired plants (62 TWh) came largely (72%) from the Middle East. Gas represented almost all of the Middle East’s incremental production in 2014. Conversely, the share of gas in European and South American production is declining.
4 A rising share fro RES. Electricity production from renewable sources accounted for 23% of the world total in 2014, overtaking natural gas for the first time to take second place behind coal. Moreover, renewables represented nearly two thirds of the total increase in production in 2014 and were the only sources to post growth in Europe.
5 After several years of dramatic expansion on the back of falling costs and ge-nerous support mechanisms, growth in renewable capacity has slowed somewhat over the last two years. But it is still impressive, with world wind and solar power up 16% and 29%, respectively, in 2014 (up 52 GW and up 40 GW), cf. tables p. 100 and 101.
6 The development of RES still depends heavily on national energy policies and regulations. In the USA, for example, wind power accounted for 29% of the increase in world production in 2012 but its share has since dropped to 9% (bottoming out at 3% in 2013) for regulatory reasons. In Japan, solar power represented only 6% of world solar production in 2012, before nuclear power was stopped, but was 24% in 2014. Europe represented 57% of this market in 2012 but only 18% in 2014, partly because of reduced support in many countries.
7 China leads renewables. China is the clear world leader in renewables, from wind power (31% of total capacity and 45% of incremental production in 2014) to solar power (Germany is still ahead in terms of total capacity, but China dominates new installation with 26% of additional world capacity in 2014). India is still lagging slightly (4% and 2%, respectively, of additional wind and solar power production in 2014).
See
Electricity
details
p. 93 à 104
25
Electricity Production has picked up worldwide but on a lasting downtrend in Europe
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass & waste Geothermal
WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY POWER SOURCE IN 1971-2014 (TWH) AND ANNUAL GROWTH 2000-2014 (%)
ADDITIONAL GLOBAL GENERATION IN 2014 (VS. 2013)
EU-28 ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY POWER SOURCE IN 1971-2014 (TWH) AND ANNUAL GROWTH 2000-2014 (%)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
+62% +10%
+19%
-0.3%
-0.6%
+0.1% -8.7% -1.2%
TWh
1983
19
85
1987
19
89
1991
1971
19
73
1975
19
77
1979
19
81
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
14
+42% +8%
+25%
-3% 0%
+4% -1%
+3%
TWh
1971
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000
1983
19
85
1987
19
89
1991
1973
19
75
1977
19
79
1981
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
14
ADDITIONAL EUROPEAN (EU28) PRODUCTION IN 2014 (VS. 2013)
TW
h
Coal 13%Oil -11%
Gas 17%
Nuclear 15%
Hydro 30%
Wind 16%Solar 10%Geothermal 1%
RES 65%
Biomass 8%
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
TW
h
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
HydroWindSolarBiomass
-160-140-120-100
-80-60-40-20
200
4060
See
Electricity
details
p. 93 à 104
26
See
Oil details
p. 65 à 72
Oil Against a backdrop of flatlining demand, a massive increase in oil production, particularly in the USA,
has kept oil prices very low
1 2014 saw a sharp increase in oil production (2 Mbbl/d or up 2%, double the 10-year average). The gain came from non-OPEC members (2.1 Mbbl/d), first and foremost with the USA producing more than one additional Mbbl/d for the third consecutive year (up 1.6 Mbbl/d in 2014) from shale oil and gas. This
unprecedented trend left the USA the world’s top producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, for the first time since 1975. It also made the country the world’s second largest oil importer rather than the first, with China taking its place. Canada and Brazil also recorded historically high production increases (315 Kbbl/d and 232 Kbbl/d, respectively). Despite frequent political instability following the Arab Spring, OPEC members succeeded in maintaining unchanged production levels (36.6 Mbbl/d). The exception was Libya, where production slumped 50%.
2 This combination of exceptional supply and relatively weak demand (see following pages) had two major consequences: it boosted stocks (up 150 Mbbls in OECD countries in 2014, much of it in the USA) and brought prices down dramatically, especially as Saudi Arabia decided not to intervene and maintained its own production levels to defend its market share. Brent crude prices were at 2013 levels over the first half of 2014 but cheapened dramatically to $55/bbl over the second half and $45 in January 2015.
3 The 2015 oil market gives a similar picture to that of 2H 2014. The average Brent price was $56/bbl end-October. This low level had little influence on demand, which is expected only slightly higher in 2015 than 2014. Demand could even slowdown if signs of weakness in the Chinese economic growth were to be confirmed.
Oil supply is surplus to requirements. Shale oil production is still expanding in the USA, partly for technical reasons (a time-lag between drilling and halting production) and partly because of falling production costs. Saudi Arabia has not changed its policy and will therefore increase production, as will Iraq and Iran. Oil stocks will therefore rise further and will not be absorbed before 2016. Major international crises aside, prices are unlikely to rise markedly over the period.
27
See
Oil details
p. 65 à 72
Oil Sufficient reserves to meet the highest production scenarios even without unconventional oil
resources, for which estimates are unreliable
Middle East
48%
Europe 1%
Other CIS 2%Russia 5%
North America (excl. Mexico) 13%
Asia 2%
South America 19%Algeria 1%
Libya 3%Angola 1%Nigeria 2%
Central America & Mexico 1%
Other Africa 1%
Africa 9%Asia Pacific 9%
CIS 16% o/w Russia 13%Europe 4% o/w Norway 2%
Middle East 32%o/w Saudi Arabia 13%
Latin America 13%North America 17% o/w USA 12%
BREAKDOWN OF WORLD OIL RESERVES – TOTAL 2014: 232 GT
OIL PRODUCTION IN 1971-2014 AND BREAKDOWN BY REGION IN 2014 PRODUCTION PROSPECTS FOR LIQUID HYDROCARBONS (“NEW POLICIES SCENARIO”, WEO 2015)
Total proven reserves
OPEC 71.6%
Ex-USSR 8.3%
Reste of the World 20.1% Source: BP Statistical Review (2015)
Other Middle East 8%
Iran 10%
Irak 9%
Arabie Saoudite
16%
UAE6%
North America Latin America Middle East Africa Asia & Pacific Europe CIS Source:Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
500 0
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
4,500 4,000
Mt
1971 1977
1983 1989
1995 2001
2007 2013
1974 1980
1986 1992
1998 2004
2010 2014
Crude oil – Existing fields
Crude oil – Yet-to-be-developed
Crude oil – Yet-to-be-found
Crude oil – Enhanced oil recovery
NGLs
Tight oil
Extra-heavy oil and bitumen
Processing gains
Source: International Energy Agency,
World Energy Outlook (2015)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
28
Oil Transport is the main source of oil demand and will remain so for many years, especially in non-OECD
countries where the number of cars is expanding rapidly
See
Oil details
p. 65 à 72
Non-energy uses 14%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
BREAKDOWN OF PRIMARY OIL CONSUMPTION BY REGION IN 2014 EXCL. BUNKERS TOTAL: 4,187 MT
OIL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN 2014
BREAKDOWN OF WORLD PRIMARY OIL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN 2014 TOTAL: 4,187 MT
Asia & Pacific
34%
Middle East 9%
Europe 15%
CIS 6%
North America 22%
Latin America 10%
Africa 4%
Other Asia & Pacific
16%China
13%
India
5%
Transport 55%
Residential, services, Agriculture 10%
Electricity generation 6%
Others transformations 7%
Industry 8%
Tonnes
0 – 0.75
0.75 – 1.5
1.5 – 2.25
2.25 – 3.0
> 3.0
Oil consumption per capita and per day (liter)
Saudi Arabia 17.2
Canada 10.6
USA 9.5
France 3.9
Russia 3.5
Brazil 2.5
China 1.3
India 0.5
World 2.0
Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
With 1 barrel = 159 liters of Crude oil
29
See
Oil details
p. 65 à 72
Oil Despite expanding consumption in emerging countries, world oil demand growth stalled in 2014
because of weak activity in OECD countries
Oil consumption in Mt 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual average growth rate Change
1980-2014 2000-2014 2013-2014
Europe 738 658 679 692 625 599 581 575 566 -1% -1% -2%
European Union 686 605 624 633 565 541 522 513 510 -1% -1% -1%
CIS 415 416 175 176 186 208 219 226 231 -2% 2% 2%
North America 859 811 922 975 855 837 827 841 847 -0.04% -1% 1%
USA 771 734 834 878 758 740 726 738 743 -0.1% -1% 1%
Latin America 213 227 300 316 348 356 367 374 374 2% 2% -0.1%
Asia 464 595 890 1,011 1,135 1,174 1,224 1,239 1,248 3% 2% 1%
China 87 114 221 316 426 443 466 480 494 5% 6% 3%
Japan 229 241 246 236 194 201 205 198 186 -1% -2% -6%
Pacific 35 36 43 48 50 51 54 56 56 1% 2% -0.1%
Africa 63 87 104 128 157 154 164 169 175 3% 4% 3%
Middle East 84 145 219 263 317 322 340 347 342 4% 3% -2%
World 3,047 3,174 3,601 3,924 4,028 4,064 4,124 4,177 4,187 1% 1% 0.2%
NB: World consumption includes marine and aviation bunkers. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
1 Barely moving in 2014 (up 0.2% - source: Enerdata), world oil consumption growth was more sluggish than in previous years (1.7% per year in 2010-13). The slight rise re-corded in non-OECD countries was largely offset by a decline within the OECD. More specifically, consumption picked up 1% in North America, boosted by a cold winter and low prices, but contracted sharply in Europe (-2%) and in Japan (-6%), where it hit its lowest level since 1971. Emerging countries drove world demand higher yet again, although less vigo-rously than before (up 1.3 Mbbl/d). In China, which still accounts for half of the annual increase in demand, consumption increased by 3%. This was less than in previous years and reflected low activity in highly energy-intensive sectors such as heavy industry and infrastructure.
2 The share of transport in oil primary consumption was just over 40% in the 1980s, about 52% in the early 2000s and is now 57%. This trend will persist in the next few years, as oil is now virtually absent from electricity generation and is losing ground as a source of heating in the residential & services sector.
3 Oil demand is increasingly from non-OECD countries, which taken together have been consuming more of it than their OECD counterparts since 2013. Over the next few years, incremental demand will come mainly from Asia and the Middle East, in line with expanding car ownership and industrial capacity. China will probably burn more oil than the USA by 2030.
30
See
Coal details
p. 73 à 78
Coal Contracting demand and excess supply drive prices sharply lower in 2014
1 Coal consumption dropped 0.7% in 2014, confirming deceleration since 2012 (gains of 4% in 2010, 5% in 2011 and 3% in 2013; source: Enerdata). This trend – the weakest since the 1998 Asian crisis – emphasises once again the coal market’s dependence on emerging economies. Their spectacular
expansion made coal the fastest growing fossil fuel of the 2000s; today, the BRIC slowdown is having the opposite effect (BRIC accounts for 70% of final coal consumption). Non-OECD consumption contracted 0.4% in 2014; thanks to a 6.3% drop in the EU, OECD consumption dipped 1.4%.
2 Waning Chinese demand (down 2.9%, after a 5% increase in 2013 and an annual ave-rage 6% gain over a decade) explains most of the global decline. China weighs heavily in world consumption (46%), and three factors were at work. Chinese overall energy demand weakened, and coal was a collateral victim; high coal-consuming industries such as construction lost mo-mentum; and RES expanded, mainly for public health reasons. Some countries reported robust increases in coal consumption, however, and notably India (up 11%, driven by the electricity sector).
3 Coal production tracked demand to decline 0.5%. Chinese production, which makes up nearly half of the world total, contracted 2.4%. Combined with a 29% slump in Ukraine, this drop could not be offset by increases elsewhere, such as in India (up 7%) and Australia (up 4.6%).
4 Coal production still suffers from excess capacity, which is forcing producers to cut costs further. In this depressed market, prices fell to a five-year low: the annual average import price in Europe -ARA CIF – dropped from $82/tonne in 2013 to $75/t in 2014, although with a rebound to $85/t in the first seven months of 2015.
5 In the short term producers will continue to focus on costs, with some cutting back on supply.
6 The future of coal will hinge on environmental imperatives on the one hand and emerging countries’ development on the other. It is already on the way out in developed economies, where electricity is moving towards a lower-carbon mix. Ac-cording to the latest IEA projections (2015 WEO) within the reference scenario (New Policies), the share of coal in OECD countries’ electricity generation will halve from 32% at present to 16%, implying a 46% drop in production by 2040. In China, where 90% of the new coal-fired plants of the last decade have been built, coal will also lose ground, as the government aims to increase the share of RES in the electricity mix from 20% to 32% by 2040 (the share of coal-fired plants is to decrease from 75% to 50% by 2040). But the vast majority of other emerging countries, including India, will have to meet growing energy demand, and coal remains the most accessible and cheapest solution for them (coal-fired heat production could rise 61% in non-OECD countries). Overall, 2015 IEA forecasts, more optimistic on RES than before, integrate a marked contraction in coal’s share of the world electricity mix over the period (from 31% to 23%).
NB: Chinese coal consumption was revised upwards last November by the Chinese Bureau of Statistics after a census of the economy in 2013 exposed a significant underestimation dating back to 2000 (a 600 million tonnes gap according to the Financial Times). Early assessments by the IEA raise coal consumption by an extra 6% (not included in this report). Chinese statistics in general require caution due to uncertainties associated with official data.
31
See
Coal details
p. 73 à 78
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015 2013 2011 0
Coal Severely affected by the Chinese slowdown, the coal market features stagnating consumption
and falling production
Bituminous coal Spot FOB export prices (€/t)
Spot FOB export prices ($/t)
2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1
Australia 74.4 64.1 53.2 53.9 95.8 85.1 70.7 60.2
South Africa 72.4 60.5 54.4 55.0 93.1 80.3 72.4 61.3
Colombia 65.1 54.3 50.3 49.9 83.8 72.0 66.8 55.6
NB: Bituminous coal = coal for electricity generation. Sources: Argus & McCloskey 2015
WORLD TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION AND BREAKDOWN BY REGION IN 2014
BITUMINOUS COAL – SPOT PRICE – NOMINAL $ / TONNE
WORLD TOTAL PRIMARY CONSUMPTION OF COAL AND BREAKDOWN BY REGION IN 2014
Source: Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
API#2 ARA CIF South Africa FOB Australia FOB Colombia FOB Japan CIF
3%
1%
67%
13% 7% 9%
Mt
Re
gio
na
l sh
are
s in
2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1983
1986 1989
1992 1995
1998 2001
2004 2007
2010 2013
2014
CISEurope
Latin AmericaNorth America
Asia & Pacific
Africa
3%
1%
68%
11% 5% 12%
CIS
Europe
Latin AmericaNorth America
Asia & Pacific
Africa
0
Mt
Re
gio
na
l sh
are
s in
20141,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1983
1986 1989
1992 1995
1998 2001
2004 2007
2010 2013
2014
32
Renewable energy sources The rapid expansion of RES worldwide continues,
especially in photovoltaics benefiting from lower costs
SEE DETAILS OF
RES CAPACITY IN THE
ELECTRICITY CHAPTER
PAGES 102 TO 104
1 RES electricity capacity is expanding faster than that of other sources, both in terms of annual growth rates and in installed megawatts. Including major hydro plants *, RES now represent nearly a third of world electricity generation (in 2014 major hydro plants produced 860 GW, as much as other RES combined).
2014 will be remembered as a year in which the share of RES in world net incremental capacity reached an unprecedented 45% (up 130 GW, i.e. by 7% between 2013 and 2014; source: EIA- 2015 RES Energy Medium Term Report ), despite much lower fossil fuel prices.
2 The rise is almost entirely imputable to photovoltaics and onshore wind power. These two sectors combined made up to a third of additional global RES capacity (92 GW, or up 20% between 2013 and 2014, according to the 2015 BP Statistical Review), of which 80% in China, the EU, the USA and Japan. This growth was related to lower photovoltaic and wind power production costs as well as political imperatives on security of supply and sustainable development. The trend will persist in the medium term. It should be borne in mind that in most non-OECD countries, and Africa in particular, RES electricity development is still in its infancy because of political, regulatory and economic barriers.
3 Regarding others sources, major hydro plants still dominate (50% of RES world capacity), but are not expected develop much further. Other RES are more marginal. They include offshore wind power, which is expanding rapidly, but the prospects for concentrated solar power (CSP), geothermal power and marine power appear limited. Biomass (including biogas) does not count for much in electricity production (less than 2%), but it is widely used for heating, especially in emerging countries.
4 New techniques are doing an increasingly good job of coping with the intrinsic intermittency of RES. Research is focused on RES low load factors, which remain their ma-jor disadvantage. New practices are needed to integrate decentralised RES production better within networks that were originally designed around major power generation centres: flexibility and storage solutions, demand management, forecasting models and new high voltage lines. In Germany, Spain and Denmark, wind and solar power accounts for over 60% of consumption at times (not constantly, due to their variability).
In a striking testament to progress made so far, photovoltaic panels on residential and commercial buildings are the main form of decentralised production in Europe and now represent an important part of new RES capacity. The electricity produced – and used directly – has become competitive in the residential/service sectors in many European countries, even without subsidies or net energy metering.
5 While forecasts all incorporated a rapid expansion of RES in regional energy mixes, they understated the recent rise in photovoltaics. This type of RES gained from higher returns (thanks to technological advances), manufacturing improvements, larger markets and lower production costs. EIA’s mid-term projections (2015 RES Energy Medium Term Report) are for continuing rapid expansion in RES capacity in 2014-20, although not quite as rapid as in the past three years (5.8% per year compared with 8% per year).
* Hydro power accounts for 62% of RES capacity, of which 50% from large hydro plants (over 50 MW dams) and 12% small hydro plants (under 50 MW).
33
An
nu
al a
dd
itio
ns (
GW
)
0
180160
100120140
20406080
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US
D 2
014 b
illio
n
GW
0
400
300
200
100
0
150
100
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Renewable energy sources RES already dominate new electricity capacity worldwide and
their share is set to rise further, albeit at a slower pace
SEE DETAILS OF
RES CAPACITY IN THE
ELECTRICITY CHAPTER
PAGES 102 TO 104
GW 2013 2014 2014-2013 (%)China 109 143 31%USA 73 84 15%UE 197 215 9%Germany 71 79 11%Italy 27 27 2%Spain 28 28 0,4%UK 14 18 29%France 13 15 14%India 22 26 14%Japan 14 24 68%Brazil 3 6 81%Rest of the world 42 55 32%World 461 553 20%
Source: BP Statistical Review, June 2015
INSTALLED RES-FIRED ELECTRICITY CAPACITY BY COUNTRY EXCLUDING MAJOR HYDRO PLANTS – END 2013 AND END 2014
WORLD INVESTMENT IN NEW RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITY, HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED
RES CAPACITY IN THE WORLD IN 2014
WORLD NET ADDITIONS TO RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITY, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST (GW)
OECD Americas OECD Asia & Oceania OECD Europe Africa Asia China Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East Net Capacity growth (GW)
Source: IEA, Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2015, October 2015
Ocean Geothermal STE Solar PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Bioenergy Hydropower Accelerated case
Note: STE = solar thermal electricity. Source: IEA, Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2015, October 2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, August 2015
Wind Solar Hydro Marine Geothermal Biomass & waste
34
CO2 emissions Ahead of COP21, the IPCC’s fifth report at end-2014 stresses government
responsibilities on climate change
See
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
1 Swift action is needed to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) because “war-ming of the climate system is unequivocal” and acceleration would be irre-versible. This conclusion to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its assessment report end-2014 could hardly be clearer. Drawing on research by over
800 scientists, the report asserts with a 95% degree of certainty that “human activities are the main cause of the climate change” via the depletion of the ozone layer and GHG concentration. CO
2 emissions, representing two thirds of GHG and stemming 90% from energy combustion,
are the prime target. They did not increase in 2014 because energy consumption was itself unchanged, but have risen rapidly over the past few decades (and by 36% since 2000).
2 A failure to take quick steps to reduce these emissions would have drama-tic consequences. According to the IPCC, temperatures on the surface of the planet could rise 4.8°C by 2020 – against an average 0.85°C over 1880-2012 – if no action is taken. Quite apart from damage to biodiversity and agricultural risks, aggravated warming of the atmosphere, the oceans’ acidification, the mounting frequency of natural disasters and rising sea levels could lead to the disappearance of many land areas a significant increase in climate refugees. Such refugees already numbered three times more than refugees from war in 2013 (22 million people; in France, 7 thousand people were displaced because of weather conditions in 2013). The IPCC therefore recommends slashing GHG emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050, starting from 2010 levels, and moving swiftly to a decarbonised world. This need not be incompatible with long-term development and growth. It recommends that its suggested GHG emissions limit of 1000 Gt CO
2
equivalent is met through the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, incentives for RES, sustainable cities and positive-energy buildings, which it says would cost just 0.06 points of annual growth (and that growth would be simply postponed, not lost for good).
3 Besides “mitigation”, “adaptation” to current climate change has become indis-pensable. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), it could cost $500 billion per year by 2050 if the current level of emissions remains unchanged (the need for elevated roads, dykes, new technology etc.) Led by the countries most exposed to natural disasters, adaptation is a key issue of the Paris summit.
CO2 EMISSIONS RELATED TO FUEL COMBUSTION 1970-2014 AND REGIONAL/COUNTRY BREAKDOWN IN 2014 (%)
North America
European Union
CIS
China
Japan
France
India
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy
& CO2 Data (June 2015)1990
9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000
01993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
MtC
O2
Reg
ion
/co
un
try share
s in 2
014
19%
27%
10%8%7%4%1%
35
CO2 emissions
COP21 aims for a universal agreement and then an ambitious agreement,
although limiting global warning to 2 degrees is more of a symbolic than a concrete target
From 30 November until 11 December 2015, the representatives
of 196 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) will gather at Paris-Le Bourget to take several
major decisions:
1 A universal agreement, meaning applicable to all parties, binding, in other words with the force of law, and hence historical, as it would be unprecedented. This is the prime – and ambitious – objective of COP21. The legal instrument will have to be backed by measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) rules to ensure effective implementation from 2020.
2 The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), detailing each country’s commitments to tackle climate change, have been presented ahead of COP21. These are the actions countries intend to take to reduce emissions. The UNFCCC assesses their cumulative impact and their compatibility with the target of limiting the world temperature increase to 2 degrees ahead of the conference. Countries having often chosen different indicators, comparing commitments is a complex matter (avoided or reduced emissions, cost to the country, impact on wealth, etc.); “comparability of effort” is a crucial issue, that often blocks negotiations. Early calculations by the International Energy Agency indicate that the national contributions presented so far will not be enough to meet the 2 degrees objective (see chart).
3 $100 billion in annual financing from 2020 onwards from developed countries (private and public sources) is expected to enable developing countries to tackle climate change. The Green Climate Fund will allocate these resources equally between mitigation and adaptation. In 2014, pledges from 32 countries totalled $10.2 billion for the first capitalisation period (2015-2018).
4 The Solutions Agenda, or Lima-Paris Action Plan, is to collate and promote initiatives developed by non-government players. Positive steps by companies, NGOs, local communities, unions, associations, civil society organisations, etc. are to be rewarded and stimulated, adding to government contributions.
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND AND RELATED CO2 EMMISIONS BY SCENARIO
Primary energy demand: INDC Scenario 450 Scenario
CO2 emissions (right axis): INDC Scenario 450 Scenario
Source: IEA, WEO Special Report 2015
“Energy and Climate change” NB: Mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent; Gt = gigatonnes.
3,000 12
24
36
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
Mto
e
Gt
See
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
36
CO2 emissions
China’s climate promises are mainly driven by serious public health issues
1 Main emitter worldwide since 2006, China was responsible for over a quarter of world CO
2 emissions in 2014. Mostly generated by coal consumption
for electricity generation and by cement production, Chinese emissions have mar-kedly increased with the country’s economic development (up 150% in 15 years).
These emissions are accompanied by various kinds of pollutants that have local consequences already visible. Nearly 20% of Chinese arable land is contaminated, 40% of the country’s rivers are heavily polluted and air pollution caused 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010, according to the Health Effect Institute.
2 Given this situation, China and the USA signed an unprecedented mutual agreement on climate on 12 November 2014. By this agreement, the Chinese government commits for the first time to reduce emissions in absolute values with an objective of reaching an emissions peak in 2030 at the latest, on top of bringing up to 20% the share of clean energies in its energy production. China’s national contribution submitted on 30 June 2015 for COP21 confirmed these ambitions and added a desire to reduce the country’s carbon intensity (i.e. CO
2 emissions by GDP unit) by 60%-65% by 2030, from its 2005 level
(i.e. a nearly 3.5% decline in carbon intensity per year from 2020 to 2030).
3 These objectives involve several related decisions. The diversification the Chinese energy mix is one of the top priorities, and means expanding solar and wind capacity, developing nuclear and geothermal power, promoting energy efficiency and increasing the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption to the detriment of coal (China signed an historical gas supply contract with Gazprom in May 2014). A major afforestation plan is to boost the 2.1 billion cubic metre tree cover recorded since 2005. And a new law passed in April 2014 imposes tougher penalties on polluters.
CHINA ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS BY FUEL AND CARBON INTENSITY
OF THE ECONOMY IN THE INDC SCENARIO *
Gas Oil Coal Carbon intensity (right axis)
* INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions).
Source: IEA, WEO Special Report 2015: Energy and Climate change
0
10
12
2
4
6
8
0
1.0
1.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2000 2005 2010 2013 2020 2025 2030
Gt
tCO
2 pe
r tho
usa
nd
do
llard
s($
2013. P
PP
)
See
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
37
CO2 emissions
In the US, the intensification of efforts on climate change supported by President Obama finds special resonance
in the population as natural disasters multiply
1 While the USA is no longer the world’s leading CO2 emitter in absolute
terms, its per capita emissions (16 tonnes per year, compared with 7.2 tonnes in China) are increasingly worrying. Emissions remained stable for a very long time in the US, until shale gas developed: since 2007, US emissions have been stea-dily decreasing (-10% between 2007 and 2014), despite a slight gain in 2014 (up
1%). Nevertheless, the numerous natural disasters that occurred over the recent years give full measure of the situation: damage linked to climate change cost the US economy over $100 billion in 2012 (hurricane Sandy in New-York, drought and extremely warm temperatures) and 7 of the 10 warmest years ever recorded in 48 of the 50 states have been since 1998.
UNITED STATES ECONOMY – WIDE GREENHOUSE – GAS EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS RELATIVE TO 2005 IN THE INDC SCENARIO
2 US commitments demonstrate its willingness to tackle global warming and likely reflects increased public concern. The agreement signed on 12 november 2014 is confirmed in the country’s national contribution, with a 26%-28% cut in GHG emissions by 2025, from their 2005 level.
3 The Clean Power Plan submitted by President Obama on 3 August 2015 lends weight to this ambition. Power plants are responsible for 40% of US CO
2 emissions and will
have to reduce their emissions by 32% by 2030 from their 2005 level. Power production from renewable sources will have to increase by 28% over the same period (from 13% currently). The plan makes the reduction of coal combustion a priority (37% of US electricity is currently pro-duced by coal plants). It also provides for improved energy efficiency in homes and businesses, the building of low-carbon infrastructures, the support to states and cities on climate change and the fostering of emissions trading systems between states. The Plan has its critics – the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity intends to sue the Obama administration, and the Republican majority in Congress is hostile to the president – and it could therefore be toned down.
Source: IEA, WEO Special
Report 2015: Energy and
Climate change
CO2 emissions:
Power Transport Buildings
Methane emissions:
Oil & gas
CO2 emissions:
Industry Other
2005-2.4
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
2010
INDC target range
2015 2020 2025 2030
GT
CO
2-e
qSee
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
38
CO2 emissions
EU commitments on climate change translated into action, but differences between member states
1 Responsible for 10% of world emissions, the EU is pursuing its efforts to combat climate change, and with gradually positive results. In 1990, its emissions were 6% lower than in 2013, 17% lower than in 2000 and 21% lower than in 1990. Germany, the UK and France (fourth european emitter in absolute terms, 19th in
terms of emissions per capita) together represent more than half of EU emissions. But note that even if the EU manages to contain its CO
2 emissions, air pollution is a serious worry and cost
1,435 billion in 2013, or 10% of the EU GDP, according to the WHO.
2 The EU is a pioneer in energy transition. Having launched a GHG quota cap and trade system in 2005 in order to meet Kyoto Protocol targets, the common energy policy adopted in 2008 has set three objectives: reduce GHG emissions by 20%, improve energy efficiency by 20% and lift the RES share in the EU energy mix to 20% by 2020. In late 2014 the EU unanimously agreed to look further ahead, to 2050, and committed to reducing its emissions by 40% by 2030 and by 80% by 2050 from their 1990 levels.
3 Faced with a variety of challenges, EU member are gradually adopting specific tools. Germany, the EU’s biggest emitter, has succeeded in reducing emissions by 25% re-lative to 1990, based on better energy efficiency and RES development. The country aims to cut its emissions by 40% by 2020 and by 80%-95% by 2050. Receipts from the quota trading mechanism are reinvested in projects combating climate change. But given a policy of phasing out its nuclear power plants, the expansion of RES has not been enough so far to compensate for coal-fired plants. The UK is one of the rare countries – France is another –to have legislated a 75% GHG emission cut by 2050. The country has opted for nuclear, wind and thermal power as well as CO
2 sequestration in order maintain energy independence. Tough measures have
been adopted, such as the setting of a carbon floor price, the development of smart meters and enhanced energy efficiency. France passed legislation on the energy transition in 2015 (see France chapter).
EU GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS RELATIVE TO 1990 IN THE INDC SCENARIO
Source: IEA, WEO Special Report 2015: Energy and Climate change
CO2 emissions:
Transport Industry Buildings Power
All GHG emissions:
Other energy Other non-energy-2.4
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
2010
INDC target: 40% reduction by 2030
2015 2020 2025 2030
GT
CO
2-e
q
See
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
39
0
10
20
30
5
15
25
june-05
nov.-05
apr.-06
sep.-06
feb.-07
july-07
dec.-07
may-08
oct.-08
mar.-09
aug.-09
jan.-10
june.-10
nov.-10
apr.-11
sep.-11
fev.-12
july-12
dec.-12
may-13
oct.-13
mar.-14
aug.-14
jan.-15
june.-15
CO2 emissions
Surely not perfect nor sufficient, the European market of emissions quota has
nevertheless inspired similar systems around the world
COUNTRIES WITH AN EMISSION TRADING SCHEME
ETS implemented or scheduled for implementation Carbon tax implemented or scheduled for implementation ETS or carbon tax under consideration ETS & carbon tax implemented or scheduled ETS implemented or scheduled, tax under consideration Carbon tax implemented or scheduled, ETS under consideration
Source: World Bank Group, Carbon pricing watch 2015
Source: GDF SUEZ Trading
Monthly average of CO2 prices (e/tonne)
1 Created in 2005 to limit CO2 emissions * and encourage investment in
low-carbon production systems, the European emission allowance market* fulfils only part of its role. The industrial slowdown during the economic crisis combined with a constant volume of CO
2 quotas has resulted in a quota surplus ex-
ceeding 2 billion tonnes on the European carbon market. This situation has driven the CO2 price
to $5-$10/tonne (vs. over $20 in 2008). It has to be around $30 to start switching investment flows. So although the allowance mechanism is still consistent with meeting the 2020 objectives on emissions, it is doing nothing to foster investment in low-emission technology and is not speeding up the energy transition.
2 With a view to reducing this excess supply, the European Parliament and more recent-ly the European Commission have launched several initiatives. The Commission has suggested cutting CO
2 auction volumes by 2.2% a year from 2021 onwards relative to the 2013-2020 pe-
riod. A stability reserve will be created to allow the withdrawal or addition of quota according to market conditions. This measure aims at improving the market’s resilience to shocks that affect quota demand. An increase in quota prices through ambitious emission objectives is also under discussion, as is a Europe-wide carbon price floor (a UK solution favoured by France).
3 The implementation of a universal and truly binding carbon price would be a si-gnificant step forward in the fight against global warming. Although politics, diplomacy, institutions and society represent major obstacles, the multiplicity of local initiatives is encoura-ging. Almost 40 countries and 20 regions, provinces and cities have implemented a carbon pricing system or are about to do so. This represents 12% of world GHG emissions and it has not undermined the competitiveness of these communities **.
* This cap-and-trade system of GHG allowances (EU ETS) was the first in the world and is a central element in Europe’s policy for meeting the objectives set in the Kyoto Protocol.** Conclusions brought by two reports published in 2015: Carbon Pricing Watch published by the World Bank and New Climate Economy published by international think tanks.
CO2 ALLOWANCES ON THE EU ETS MARKET €/TONNE
South Africa
KoreaJapanTurkeyCalifornia
OregonWashington
Quebec
RGGI China
Kazakhstan
Thailand
Ukraine
Brazil Rio de JaneiroSâo Paulo
AlbertaEU
Iceland
OntarioManitobaBritish
Columbia
New Zealand
Chile
Mexico
See
CO2 details
p. 105 à 110
OVERVIEW
Economy and energy overview
Macroeconomic data
World reserves
Primary energy production
Primary energy consumption
Final energy consumption
42
44
45
46
47
World population
According to the UN, the world’s population will be 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Most of this increase will come from Africa (from 1 today to 4 billion in 2100).
GDP
BRICS posted slower growth again in 2015, with wider differentials between them: recession in Russia and Brazil, stagnation in South Africa and slower growth in China. India is the only country in the group with very positive indicators.
Oil reserves
Access to unconventional fossil fuels and the expansion of RES have dampened fears over ‘peak oil’. There is still talk of a peak, but in relation to demand…
Production & consumption
Abundant fossil fuels have brought prices down.Consumption is not showing any signs of recovery, however, suggesting a shift in behaviour supportive of energy efficiency and RES.
41
OVERVIEW
42
Macroeconomic data
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
* Real gross domestic product (or gross domestic product in volume terms) is used to show changes in gross domestic product over a reference period (usually a year or a quarter) at constant prices.
By removing changes in GDP caused by inflation, this approach is one way of identifying “real” economic growth. In practice, real GDP tends to be used to changes in economic activity from one year to the next, while nominal GDP is used for long series.
Having risen by 1.2% per year since the early 2000s, the world’s popu-lation was almost 7.2 billion in 2014. The UN believes that it will
be 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100 (World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision). Africa’s population is set to near quadruple by 2100, to 4.5 billion, representing most of the world’s population growth. India will become the most populous country as early as 2022.Already the world’s leading trading power, China became the world’s largest eco-nomy in purchasing power terms in 2014. Relegated to second place, the USA had been in top spot since 1872. This change mirrors BRICS development, with a combined share of world GDP rising from 8% in 2000 to 22% in 2014, and OECD countries’ gradual decline over the same period (from 81% in 2000 to under 65% today). Ironically, Chinese, Brazilian and Russian economic growth all slowed in 2014.
Population (millions)
GDP (current, $ bn)
GDP per capita ($ bn)
Annual real GDP growth rate
(%)*
Primary energy consumption (toe/capita)
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Europe 614 616 20,094 20,509 33 33 0.4 1.51 3.0 2.9European Union 507 508 17,961 18,388 35 36 0.1 1.4 3.2 3.1
Norway 5 5 513 498 101 97 0.6 2.2 6.2 5.7North America 351 354 18,595 19,224 53 54 2.2 2.4 7.0 7.0
Canada 35 36 1,827 1,777 52 50 2.0 2.5 7.2 7.1USA 316 318 16,768 17,447 53 55 2.2 2.4 7.0 7.0
Latin America 611 618 5,969 6,022 10 10 2.7 1.3 1.4 1.4Brazil 200 202 2,247 2,192 11 11 2.5 0.1 1.5 1.5
Asia 3,871 3,908 21,057 22,209 5 6 5.9 5.6 1.4 1.4China 1,357 1,364 9,181 10,139 7 7 7.7 7.4 2.2 2.2India 1,243 1,260 1,936 2,119 2 2 6.9 7.2 0.7 0.7
Japan 127 127 4,920 4,653 39 37 1.6 -0.1 3.5 3.4Pacific 37 38 1,677 1,662 45 44 2.6 2.8 4.1 4.1
Australia 23 24 1,468 1,443 63 61 2.5 2.7 5.5 5.5CIS 285 287 2,805 2,547 10 9 2.5 0.9 3.8 3.8
Russia 143 144 2,097 1,887 15 13 1.3 0.6 5.2 5.2Middle East 226 231 2,674 2,734 12 12 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.3
Iran 77 78 369 316 5 4 -5.8 3.0 2.9 3.0Qatar 2 2 202 221 93 95 6.3 6.1 22.0 20.5
Saudi Arabia 29 29 745 793 26 27 4.0 3.6 7.2 7.4Africa 1,107 1,136 2,347 2,789 2 2 3.6 3.7 0.7 0.7World 7,103 7,187 75,218 77,695 10.6 10.8 3.3 3.4 1.9 1.9
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Exchange rate
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E / $ 0.94 1.13 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.08 1.10
Sources: Exchanges - GDF SUEZ Trading - Forwars as of october 2015
SHARE OF MAJOR ECONOMIES IN WORLD GDP IN 2014
USA23%
Europe26%
Rest of the world
24%Russia
2%
China 13%
Brazil3%India3%
Japan6%
OVERVIEW
43
Population and GDP: the most populous countries and the G20
2014 Population GDP
In millions
World rank
In $ bnWorld rank
$000s per capita
World rank
China 1,364 1 10,139 2 7 80India 1,260 2 2,119 9 2 137
European Union 508 - 18,388 - 36 28USA 318 3 17,447 1 55 11
Indonesia 253 4 855 18 3 116Brazil 202 5 2,192 7 11 64Pakistan 185 6 248 43 1 146Nigeria 179 7 881 16 5 99Bangladesh 158 8 214 51 1 145Russia 144 9 1,887 10 13 58Japan 127 10 4,653 3 37 27Mexico 124 11 1,287 15 10 66Philippines 100 12 287 39 3 122Ethiopia 97 13 51 81 1 172Vietnam 91 14 187 56 2 129Egypt 83 15 279 40 3 117Germany 80 16 3,820 4 48 19Iran 78 17 316 36 4 108Turkey 76 18 801 19 11 65DR Congo 69 19 36 92 1 173Thailand 67 20 376 32 6 92France 66 21 2,828 6 43 24United Kingdom 65 22 2,933 5 45 21Italy 61 23 2,143 8 35 29South Africa 54 24 349 33 6 87Myanmar 54 25 55 79 1 155Tanzania 51 26 56 77 1 151
2014 Population GDP
In millions
World rank
In $ bnWorld rank
$000s per capita
World rank
South Korea 50 27 1,419 13 28 31
Colombia 49 28 380 31 8 77Sudan 49 29 78 65 2 140Spain 47 30 1,409 14 30 30Kenya 46 31 68 69 1 142Ukraine 45 32 128 60 3 124Argentina 42 33 463 28 11 62Algeria 40 34 222 48 6 93Uganda 39 35 32 97 1 159Poland 39 36 545 24 14 55Canada 36 37 1,777 11 50 17Iraq 34 38 229 46 7 84Morocco 33 39 107 61 3 119Afghanistan 31 40 21 107 1 165Venezuela 31 41 657 22 21 40Uzbekistan 31 42 60 72 2 131Peru 31 43 204 52 7 85Malaysia 30 44 330 35 11 63Saoudi Arabia 29 45 793 20 27 32Nepal 28 46 19 109 1 164Mozambique 26 47 16 113 1 168Ghana 26 48 38 91 1 143North Korea 25 49 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.Yemen 25 50 39 90 2 141Madagascar 24 51 11 133 0 174Australia 24 52 1,443 12 61 7Taiwan 23 53 492 27 21 41
G20 members Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Average annual per capita income in OECD countries was $40,000 in 2014 ($55,000 in the US). That is far higher than in the vast majority of
other countries, including the most dynamic emerging powers. Per capita income in China was approximately $7,000, less than a fifth of the OECD average, and that of India $2,000, a twentieth.
The Top 10 in the GDP per capita table is not terribly significant, as it includes tax havens (Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Bermuda, Jersey) and low-population oil and gas producers (Qatar, Norway, Brunei and Singapore). The United States appear in only 11th position
OVERVIEW
44
World reserves
Up until now, coal has been considered the most significant fossil fuel in world energy reserves, both in terms of quantity and longevity relative to current production. The revolution in unconventional gas, largely unexploited to date, questions this predominance. While conventional reserves have been increasing in recent years following discoveries in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Australia and Malaysia, for example, they amount to 62 years’ production with respect to proven reserves* (150 years, if we refer to recoverable reserves). But if we add unconventional gas, recoverable reserves extend another 200 years according to IEA estimates.
Oil reserves are also being reassessed. Conventional oil reserves are not expected to last beyond the end of the century. Some specialists believe that almost all potential reserves have already been discovered (the peak oil theory). Here, too, unconventional energy could increase the longevity of resources (see focus on shale oil in the Oil chapter).
Reserves as of 31/12/2014Gtoe
Coal & Lignite Crude oil & NGL * Natural gas Uranium Total
Volume Share in world total
Years of production
Volume Share in world total
Years of production
Volume Share in world total
Years of production
Volume Share in world total
Years of production
Europe 52 9% 285 2 1% 13 4 2% 19 0.6 1% 181 59
European Union 37 6% 246 1 0.4% 13 2 1% 14 0.5 1% 159 40
North America 163 28% 309 31 13% 42 11 6% 15 9 20% 79 214
USA 158 27% 322 7 3% 13 9 5% 15 5 11% 246 179
Latin America 11 2% 146 48 20% 86 7 4% 37 2 4% 605 67
Brazil 4 1% 1267 2 1% 18 0.4 0.2% 20 2 4% 557 9
Asia 137 24% 55 5 2% 14 12 6% 32 2 5% 126 157
China 76 13% 271 3 1% 58 3 2% 116 1 3% 78 83
India 40 7% 145 1 0.3% 36 1 1% 22 0.8 2% 193 43
Pacific 51 9% 28 0.5 0.2% 2 3 2% 27 12 27% 185 66
Australia 51 9% 185 0.5 0.2% 24 2 1% 44 12 27% 185 66
CIS 143 25% 500 18 8% 27 59 33% 83 8 19% 28 229
Russia 105 18% 518 13 5% 24 45 25% 84 2 5% 70 164
Middle East 1 0.1% 805 113 48% 83 72 40% 149 0.01 0.02% - 186
Iran 1 0.1% 827 22 9% 140 31 17% 209 0.01 0.02% - 54
Qatar 0 0% 0 3 1% 43 22 12% 150 0 0% 0 25
Saudi Arabia 0 0% 0 37 16% 66 8 4% 106 0 0% 0 45
Africa 21 4% 134 18 8% 45 13 7% 81 10 23% 94 62World 580 100% 145 236 100% 55 180 100% 62 44 100% 73 1,040
NB: Number of years of production = reserves/primary production- Proven economic reserves (i.e. recoverable volumes under current economic and technical conditions). They do not include unconventional gas and oil, except: regarding oil, oil sand reserves in Canada and extra heavy oil reserves in Venezuela; and regarding gas, coal bed methane and/or shale gas proven reserves in Canada, the United. Source: WEC / OGJ / BP / Cedigaz / Uranium Red Book
OVERVIEW
45
Primary energy production
Primary energy production in 2014 (Mtoe)
Fossils fuels Biomass Electricity Heat Total
Coal & Lignite Crude oil & NGL Natural gas Biomass & waste Primary electricity Geothermal & Solar
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Change 2013- 2014
Europe 184 5% -1% 162 4% 1% 210 7% -7% 148 11% 2% 331 29% 1% 7 19% 10% 1,042 -1%
European Union 151 4% -3% 72 2% -2% 117 4% -11% 137 10% 1% 295 26% 1% 3 7% 3% 775 -2%
North America 527 13% 1% 742 17% 13% 733 25% 5% 108 8% 3% 329 29% 1% 2 5% 3% 2,441 6%
USA 491 12% 1% 533 12% 16% 600 21% 6% 96 7% 4% 268 24% 1% 2 5% 3% 1,989 6%
Latin America 72 2% 4% 552 13% -0.5% 191 7% -1% 143 10% 2% 80 7% -1% 1 3% 9% 1,040 0.05%
Brazil 3 0.1% 7% 123 3% 11% 20 1% 13% 85 6% 1% 37 3% -3% 0.7 2% 15% 269 5.9%
Asia 2,483 62% -2% 384 9% 0.5% 359 12% 2% 627 45% 3% 273 24% 10% 26 69% 19% 4,152 0.4%
China 1,855 47% -2% 214 5% 1% 106 4% 8% 216 15% 2% 139 12% 17% 25 65% 20% 2,555 -0.4%
India 282 7% 7% 44 1% 3% 27 1% -7% 193 14% 2% 25 2% 1% 0.6 2% 12% 571 4%
Pacific 278 7% 5% 22 0.5% -3% 58 2% 2% 9 1% 5% 10 1% 5% 0.6 1% 4% 378 4%
Australia 276 7% 5% 19 0.4% -4% 54 2% 2% 6 0.4% 6% 2 0.2% -11% 0.3 1% 10% 357 4%
CIS 287 7% -2% 679 16% 0.1% 706 24% -2% 13 1% 6% 93 8% 3% 0.01 0.04% 0% 1,778 -1%
Russia 202 5% 3% 531 12% 1% 529 18% -4% 9 1% 7% 63 6% 3% 0 0% - 1,334 -1%
Middle East 1 0.02% 12% 1,358 32% 1% 486 17% 3% 1 0.06% 0.1% 3 0.3% 1% 1 3% 0% 1,851 2%
Iran 1 0.02% 13% 157 4% 2% 147 5% 9% 0.5 0.04% 0.1% 2 0.2% -3% 0 0% - 308 5%
Africa 157 4% 4% 401 9% -7% 161 6% -3% 350 25% 1% 17 2% 7% 0.12 0.3% 0.4% 1,086 -2%
World 3,988 100% -0.4% 4,301 100% 2% 2,904 100% 1% 1,399 100% 2% 1,137 100% 3% 38 100% 15% 13,767 1%
For unit conversion, see conversion table in Appendix 2 and Enerdata methodology in Appendix 1. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
The share of fossil fuel in energy production still shows no sign of decline, posting 80% ever since the 1990s. The low cost of coal and better extraction techniques for oil and gas (particularly unconventional oil and gas) have encouraged the use of fossil fuels in recent years. Oil therefore remains the leading source of energy (31.2%), ahead of coal (29%) and natural gas (21%).
At the same time, the unlimited and considerable potential of renewable energies is becoming more and more accessible. The energy mix could well shift in its favour: the share of RES in primary energy production (biomass, hydro, geothermal, solar and wind) was 14% in 2014 and will climb to 19% in 2040, according to the IEA’s New Policies scenario.
Production remains fairly concentrated. 62% of coal comes from Asia, while oil is produced mainly in the Middle East (32%), North America (17%), the CIS (16%), and Latin America (13%). The giants in gas production are North America (25%) and the CIS (24%); emerging countries widely exploit biomass, notably Asia and Africa.
OVERVIEW
46
Primary energy consumption
Primary energy consumption in 2014 (Mtoe)
Fossils fuels Biomass Electricity heat Total
Coal & Lignite Crude oil & NGL Natural gas Biomass & waste Primary electricity Geothermal & SolarVolume Share
in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Change 2013- 2014
Europe 319 8% -4% 573 13% -2% 394 14% -10% 156 11% 2% 329 29% -0.3% 8 20% 8% 1,777 -3%European Union 266 7% -6% 511 12% -1% 345 12% -11% 144 10% 2% 295 26% 0.2% 3 9% 0.4% 1,563 -4%
North America 460 12% -0.5% 866 20% 0.3% 710 25% 2% 108 8% 2% 329 29% 1% 2 5% 3% 2,476 1%USA 443 11% -0.2% 789 18% 0.5% 623 22% 2% 96 7% 2% 272 24% 1% 2 5% 3% 2,224 1%
Latin America 42 1% 4% 387 9% -2% 209 7% 3% 141 10% 2% 80 7% -0.4% 1 3% 8% 861 0.5%Brazil 18 0.4% 7% 128 3% 5% 35 1% 11% 84 6% 2% 40 4% -3% 1 2% 14% 306 4%
Asia 2,804 70% -0.1% 1,283 30% 2% 532 18% 2% 625 45% 3% 275 24% 9% 26 67% 19% 5,545 1%China 2,012 50% -3% 492 12% 3% 151 5% 9% 216 15% 2% 138 12% 16% 25 64% 20% 3,034 -0.2%India 427 11% 12% 184 4% 3% 41 1% -5% 193 14% 2% 25 2% 1% 0.6 2% 12% 872 7%
Pacific 45 1% -1% 54 1% -0.2% 37 1% 7% 9 1% 5% 10 1% 5% 1 2% 4% 155 2%Australia 44 1% -1% 45 1% -0.4% 32 1% 7% 6 0.4% 6% 2 0.2% -11% 0.3 1% 10% 129 1%
CIS 198 5% -6% 242 6% 6% 535 18% -1% 13 1% 6% 91 8% 3% 0.02 0.04% 0% 1,080 0.1%Russia 121 3% -4% 179 4% 3% 380 13% -1% 9 1% 7% 62 5% 3% 0 0% - 751 0.05%
Middle East 10 0.3% -5% 362 8% 1% 380 13% 6% 1 0.07% 0.3% 4 0.3% 15% 1 3% 0% 758 3%Iran 1 0.03% -2% 87 2% -2% 147 5% 12% 0.5 0.04% 0.1% 2 0.2% 3% 0 0% - 238 6%
Saudi Arabia 0 0% - 146 3% 6% 71 2% 4% 0.007 0% 0% 0 0% - 0 0% - 217 5%Africa 110 3% 4% 163 4% -2% 96 3% -1% 349 25% 1% 18 2% 9% 0.2 0.5% 0.2% 737 0.5%World 3,990 100% -1% 4,277 100% 0.4% 2,894 100% 0.3% 1,402 100% 2% 1,136 100% 3% 39 100% 15% 13,737 0.5%
For unit conversion, see conversion table in Appendix 2 and Enerdata methodology in Appendix 1. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) NB: Bunker oil is not included in the regional oil consumption volumes but is included in the world total.
Oil is the leading energy source in terms of world consumption (31% in 2014) and will stay that way over the coming three decades (26% in 2040, according to the IEA New Policies scenario). That said, its share in total consumption is declining steadily, in line with its diminishing role in electricity production and heating and given motor vehicles’ improved efficiency. In contrast, indus-trial expansion in emerging countries and the competitiveness of coal in European electricity production are keeping demand for coal very buoyant (a 29% market share in 2014). Environmental constraints will weigh on its use in the future (24,5% in 2040, according to the New Policies scenario). Gas demand (21% market share in 2014) presents a mixed picture. In Asia, consumption
is rising in tandem with economic growth; in the US, a reduction in prices prompted by domestic production has boosted energy use. In Europe, by contrast, gas demand is suffering from the milder temperatures, the economic crisis, the poor competitiveness of gas in electricity generation and the rapid expansion of RES. Note that the use of biomass in general and of wood in particular is far from negligible, even in developed countries, and is still the only source of energy available in much of Africa. Lastly, RES remains marginal for electricity generation at world level, but is expanding rapidly in Europe, China and the USA, and to the point where it is driving a radical change in electricity supply networks.
OVERVIEW
47
Final energy consumption
Energy uses are becoming increasingly specific. Coal is used chiefly as primary energy to produce electricity and heat (69% of its consumption), while oil is used more for transport, where substitutes are marginal (transport accounts for 64% and 56%, respectively, of final and primary oil consumption). Gas uses are more diversified: initially favoured for final consumption (heating, industry), natural gas is now destined mainly for electricity production (40% of consumption). It is also used increasingly as fuel for transport. Final demand for electricity benefits from more specific uses (appliances) and from more RES-based electricity generation. The latter’s share in final consumption will rise from 18% in 2014 to 24% by 2040, according to the IEA New Policies scenario.
We note the key points in energy demand trends in the Introduction.
Final energy consumption in 2014Mtoe
Fossils fuels Biomass Electricity Heat Total
Coal & Lignite Crude oil & NGL Natural gas Biomass & waste Primary electricity Geothermal et Solar
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Share in world total
Change 2013- 2014
Volume Change 2013- 2014
Europe 69 5% -5% 516 41% -1% 254 20% -12% 93 7% 1% 268 21% -2.8% 56 4% -1% 1,255 -4%
European Union 52 5% -5% 461 42% -1% 231 21% -13% 83 8% 1% 230 21% -3% 49 4% -2% 1,106 -4%
North America 29 2% -2% 834 49% 0.4% 378 22% 3% 82 5% 0.7% 364 21% -0.1% 9 1% -0.02% 1,696 1%
USA 26 2% -2% 737 50% 0.3% 321 22% 4% 72 5% 1% 320 22% -0.04% 8 1% -0.02% 1,484 1%
Latin America 18 3% -3% 316 50% 1% 82 13% 2% 104 17% 1% 107 17% 2% 1 0.2% 9% 628 1%
Brazil 11 5% -2% 111 46% 3% 13 6% 11% 61 25% 2% 43 18% 2% 1 0.3% 15% 240 3%
Asia 935 25% -4% 1111 30% 1% 255 7% 3% 561 15% 2% 703 19% 3% 108 3% 3% 3,673 1%
China 696 36% -7% 449 23% 3% 105 5% 9% 198 10% 2% 396 20% 4% 100 5% 3% 1,945 -0.4%
India 118 21% 11% 154 28% 3% 23 4% -5% 177 32% 1% 86 15% 8% 0.6 0% 12% 559 5%
Pacific 5 5% -0.1% 49 49% 0.2% 16 16% 11% 7 7% 2% 22 22% 0.4% 1 1% 4% 100 2%
Australia 4 5% -1% 42 51% -0.05% 13 16% 7% 4 5% 1% 18 22% 0.2% 0.3 0.4% 10% 82 1%
CIS 62 10% -7% 172 27% 2% 164 26% -2% 6 1% 6% 91 14% -0.1% 148 23% -1% 643 -1%
Russia 31 7% -4% 125 28% 3% 99 22% -1% 3 1% 7% 61 14% 0.4% 123 28% -0.3% 442 0.4%
Middle East 3 1% -1% 238 48% 3% 182 36% 6% 1 0.2% 1% 75 15% 6% 1 0.3% 0% 500 5%
Iran 1 0.4% -2% 58 33% -2% 97 55% 12% 0.5 0.3% 0.1% 20 11% 8% 0 0% - 176 6%
Saudi Arabia 0 0% - 93 64% 8% 29 20% -2% 0.007 0.005% 0% 23 16% 7% 0 0% - 144 6%
Africa 21 4% 5% 145 27% 0.8% 32 6% 1% 279 53% 1% 50 10% 1% 0.1 0.02% 0.3% 527 1%
World 1,142 12% -4% 3,729 40% 1% 1,362 15% -0.1% 1,133 12% 2% 1,679 18% 1% 323 3% 0.4% 9,369 0.2%
NB: Bunker oil is not included in the regional oil consumption volumes but is included in the world total. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
Energy prices & costs
Oil and natural gas E&P cost structure
Oil prices and cost structure (pump prices)
Natural gas prices and supply chain costs
Electricity prices
Coal prices and cost structure
CO2 prices
50
51
53
57
61
64
OIL
Excess supply, a continuing price war amongthe major oil producing countries without any reduction as yet in their output, a possible increase in Iranian production following the nuclear agreement and demand suffering from slower economic activity in Asia.
Natural gas
In 2015, European gas prices held up against weak fundamentals over most of the year, mainly because of uncertainty over Russian and Dutch supply. But in recent months the availability of gas – especially LNG – and an absence of winter pressure on demand have sent prices to a five-year low.
Electricity
CO2 prices fell further in 2015, mainly because of lower fuel
consumption and mild temperatures towards year-end. The only issue giving the markets pause for thought is Belgian nuclear production.
49
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
50
Oil and gas: exploration & production * cost structure
The majority of large E&P projects around
the world have incurred significant increases
in acquisition, exploration and production costs
over the last few years.
E&P costs vary according to basin location and geology.Higher exploration and production costs partly reflect the fact that explored oilfields are becoming increasingly complex (deep water off East Africa, pre-salt in Brazil, etc.), and bringing them into production requires more costly technology.
After three decades of improving corporate profitability, cost overruns and delays in project delivery dominated in 2014, prompting several companies, especially in Asia, to optimise their portfolios.
One of the most striking trends observed in 2015 is a significant reduction in investment in oil and gas exploration and production following the fall in hydrocarbon prices.
While our upstream cost indices have clearly started to accelerate, the move does not match the rise in costs observed in recent years.
* See Exploration & development costs and Production definitions in the Glossary (Appendix 1).
CUMULATIVE GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY INVESTMENT BY TYPE IN THE NEW POLICIES SCENARIO, 2014-2015
PRODUCTION COST ESTIMATES FOR OIL CONSIDERED TECHNICALLY PRODUCIBLE ($ / BBL)
IHS E&P UPSTREAM CAPITAL COST INDEX
Already produced Middle East & North Africa Others conventional oil CO
2-EOR * Non-CO
2-EOR *
Arctic Extra heavy oil & bitumen Light tight oil Ultra deep water Kerogen GTL (Gas To Liquid) CTL (Coal To Liquid)
* EOR: Enhanced Oil RecoverySource: Resources to Reserves (IEA, 2013)
This chart shows the range of production costs for technically recoverable oil, by
quality or location.
Gas
LNG Transmission & distribution Upstream
Oil
Refining Transport Upstream
Power
Transmission Distribution Fossil-fuel plants Nuclear Renewables
Coal
Transport Mining
Biofuel320
Source: World Energy Investment Outlook 2014Sources: IHS CERA UCCI November 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Pro
duc
tion
cost
(US
D p
er b
arel
)
Q1 2015198
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201680
100120140160180200220240260
Co
st in
dex
(200
0-10
0)
sTotal
40,165 billion ($2012)1,401
986
11,284
13,671
5,030
16,370
2,635
1,061
5,857
1,7871,897
8,771
1,034736
6,138
298
736
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
51
Oil: prices
Brent 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Oct. 2015
Dated Brent $/bbl (nominal) 2 12 37 28 24 17 28 55 97 62 79 111 112 109 99 56
Dated Brent €/bbl (nominal) 2 8 24 37 20 13 31 44 66 44 60 78 87 82 74 50
Brent as annual average – € values pre-2000 recalculated. Source: GDF SUEZ Trading
After a sharp fall in 2014, oil prices picked up slightly early 2015, then traded up from $45/bbl to just over $70 before the summer. Expectations of weaker American production and the renegotiation of OPEC quotas at the cartel’s June meeting, to-gether with healthy economic indicators, bolstered prices over the period. Several factors softened the oil market from July onwards, however: OPEC decided to leave
its quotas unchanged at 30 Mbbl/d, North American production rose further, talks pointed to the end of economic sanctions on Iran, and China was in crisis at end-August. Oil prices then resumed their downtrend and traded around $48/bbl in November 2015.
BRENT VERSUS WTI MONTHLY PRICES, FROM 2010 TO OCTOBER 2015, CURRENT $
Brent in current $ WTI in current $Sources: GDF SUEZ Trading (October 2015)
jan.
-10
apr.-
10ju
ly-10
oct.-
10ja
n.-1
1ap
r.-11
july-
11oc
t.-11
jan.
-12
apr.-
12ju
ly-12
oct.-
12ja
n.-1
3ap
r.-13
july-
13oc
t.-13
jan.
-14
apr.-
14ju
ly-14
oct.-
14ja
n.-1
5ap
r.-15
july-
15oc
t.-15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
52
Oil: pump price structure in France
Analysis of pump prices in France (diesel) € / liter %
Crude oil barrel price (Brent) 0.33 27%
Refining costs 0.11 9%
Downstream taxes 0.68 56%
Distribution costs 0.09 7%
Total pump cost * 1.21 100%
* March 2015 average data according to ministerial data. Source: French economy and finance ministry – 2015
UNLEADED 95 PRICE IN FRANCE, 2011-2015
FUEL PRICING - DIESEL AND UNLEADED 95
Source: French economy and finance ministry – 2015Percentages based on the March 2015 average price (1.21 for diesel – 1.39 for unleaded 95).
Taxation Refining Distribution Brent €/l Source: French economy and finance ministry – 2015
Taxation VAT TICPE
> VAT (20% of the total price excluding tax)> Domestic tax on energy products consumption (ex-TIPP)
Transport & distribution
> Logistics and distribution costs (warehouse storage, transport and service station’s operating costs
> Costs related to environmental requirements and distributor’s net margin
Refining
Costs of the transformation of Crude oil into refine products
Crude oil
Its price is determined on world markets, based on supply and demand. Paid in US dollars, Crude oil price depends also on the euro exchange rate to the dollar
DIESEL accounts for 80% of french consumption (2015)
UNLEADED 95 accounts for 13% of french consumption (2015)
Taxation of which
39% TICPE 45% 17% VAT 17%
Transport & distribution
Refining
Crude oil
56%
7%
9%
27%
62%
7%
7%
24%
00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
Jan.
201
1
Apr. 20
11
July
2011
Oct. 2
011
Jan.
201
2
Apr. 20
12
July
2012
Oct. 2
012
Jan.
201
3
Apr. 20
13
July
2013
Oct. 2
013
Jan.
201
4
July
2014
Oct. 2
014
Jan.
201
5
Apr. 20
14
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
53
jan.-00
jan.-01
jan.-02
jan.-03
jan.-04
jan.-05
jan.-06
jan.-07
jan.-08
jan.-09
jan.-10
jan.-11
jan.-12
jan.-13
jan.-14
jan.-15
sept.-
15
oct.-15
05
1015202530354045
Natural gas: prices
Gas prices 05 € / toe PCI
Residential Constant prices incl.tax
Industry Constant prices incl.tax
Power station Constant prices incl.tax
2000 2013 2014 2000 2013 2014 2000 2013 2014France 460 767 745 236 444 408 n.d. n.d. n.d.Germany 486 804 791 244 424 392 200 346 320Spain 694 899 944 248 368 355 233 325 313Italy 782 849 783 202 437 412 154 334 315UK 338 723 741 121 401 348 120 344 291Belgium 546 719 705 254 402 337 153 242 202USA 326 297 378 173 134 159 175 129 157Japan 1,106 1,353 1,389 387 667 709 218 688 715Russia 16 54 57 30 68 69 n.d. 62 63
Gas prices 05 € / MWh PCI
Residential Constant prices incl.tax
Industry Constant prices incl.tax
Power station Constant prices incl.tax
2000 2013 2014 2000 2013 2014 2000 2013 2014France 35.6 59.4 57.7 18.3 34.4 31.6 n.d. n.d. n.d.Germany 37.6 62.2 61.2 18.9 32.8 30.3 15.4 26.8 24.8Spain 53.7 69.6 73.1 19.2 28.5 27.5 18.0 25.2 24.2Italy 60.6 65.7 60.6 15.6 33.8 31.9 12.0 25.9 24.4UK 26.2 56.0 57.4 9.3 31.0 26.9 9.3 26.6 22.5Belgium 42.2 55.7 54.6 19.7 31.1 26.1 11.8 18.7 15.7USA 25.2 23.0 29.2 13.4 10.4 12.3 13.6 10.0 12.2Japan 85.6 104.8 107.5 29.9 51.7 54.9 16.9 53.3 55Russia 1.2 4.2 4.4 2.3 5.3 5.4 n.d. 4.8 4.9
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Nominal natural gas prices
Actual Forwards & forecasts2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2017
Europe – Spot in €/MWh
NBPDay ahead 16.9 22.1 25.3 27.4 21.2 21.6 NBP -Forwards
Oct. 2015 18.0 18.1
Europe – Contract price in €/MWh
Germany – BAFA import prices 20.6 25.7 29.0 27.6 23.4 21.6 Germany – import
price 17.6 18.2
USA – in €/MWh Henry HubDay ahead
11.3 9.9 7.5 9.6 11.5 10.6 Henry HubForwards Oct. 2015
8.0 8.8in $/MMBtu 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.8
Japan – in €/MWh LNGCIF
26.8 34.9 42.6 39.6 40.1 33.3 LNGCIF
24.8 29.1in $/MMBtu 10.4 14.3 16.1 15.4 15.6 10.9 7.9 9.4
$/€ 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.12 Forwards Oct. 2015 1.08 1.10Sources: market data for actual and forwards (GDF SUEZ Trading); CERA for LNG in Japan and BAFA forecasts (German customs figures,
average prices for gas imports) CERA forecasts October 2015
Uncertainty over supply underpinned gas prices in Europe early 2015, keeping the NBP above €20/MWh during H1. Russian gas flow to Ukraine and a ceasefire had to be renegotiated several times, the Dutch government ordered a cut in Groningen field production amid earthquake risks and a colder winter relative to the previous year boosted consumption. But these factors waned over the course of the year: Russian flows to Ukraine were maintained, while greater higher supply from Norway and increased LNG availability offset the Dutch production shortfall. Given that Asian gas prices are now much lower, more LNG is available to Europe, and from next year additional volumes are also expected from the USA
and Australia. Gas prices tumbled late in the year, cutting the NBP to €18/MWh in October 2015 and close to €15 in mid-November.
NBP day ahead, €/MWh BAFA in €/MWh (average natural gas import prices for Germany published by german custums))
Source: Exchanges – GDF SUEZ Trading – B3G, Strategy Department.
NATURAL GAS PRICE IN EUROPENBP PRICE AND AVERAGE IMPORT GAS PRICE IN GERMANY (BAFA), €/MWH
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
54
0
5
10
15
20
jan.-05
July-
05
jan.-06
July-
06
jan.-07
July-
07
jan.-08
July-
08
jan.-09
July-
09
jan.-10
July-
10
jan.-11
July-
11
jan.-12
July-
12
jan.-13
July-
13
jan.-14
July-
14
jan.-15
July-
15
Natural gas: prices – long series
NATURAL GAS PRICES ON VARIOUS MARKETS BETWEEN 2005 AND JULY 2015
NATURAL GAS PRICES SHORT-TERM FORECASTING ON VARIOUS MARKETS, $/MMBTU
Gas price, $/MMBtu
LNG Natural gas Crude oil
JapanCIF
UE – CIF BAFA
UK NBP
USA Henry Hub
CanadaAlberta
OECD average oil price CIF
1990 3.6 2.8 - 1.6 1.1 3.81991 4.0 3.2 - 1.5 0.9 3.31992 3.6 2.7 - 1.8 1.0 3.21993 3.5 2.5 - 2.1 1.7 2.81994 3.2 2.4 - 1.9 1.5 2.71995 3.5 2.4 - 1.7 0.9 3.01996 3.7 2.5 1.9 2.8 1.1 3.51997 3.9 2.6 2.0 2.5 1.4 3.31998 3.0 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.4 2.21999 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.0 3.02000 4.7 2.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 4.82001 4.6 3.7 3.2 4.1 3.6 4.12002 4.3 3.2 2.4 3.3 2.6 4.22003 4.8 4.1 3.3 5.6 4.8 4.92004 5.2 4.3 4.5 5.8 5.0 6.32005 6.0 5.9 7.4 8.8 7.3 8.72006 7.1 7.9 7.9 6.8 5.8 10.72007 7.7 8.0 6.0 7.0 6.2 12.02008 12.5 11.6 10.8 8.8 8.0 16.82009 9.1 8.5 4.9 3.9 3.4 10.42010 10.9 8.0 6.6 4.4 3.7 13.52011 14.7 10.5 9.0 4.0 3.5 18.62012 16.7 10.9 9.5 2.8 2.3 18.82013 16.2 10.7 10.6 3.7 2.9 18.32014 16.3 9.1 8.2 4.3 3.9 16.8
Source: Published in BP Statistical Review (2015) – (Sources: Heren Energy, BAFA, Energy Intelligence Group)
Sources: IHS, October 2015
LNG Japan NBP TTF Zeebrugge Germany – import prices Henry Hub
Japan – contract prices NBP Europe – import prices Henry HubSources: IHS, October 2015
0123456789
10
june-15
sept.-
15
dec.-15
mar.-15
june-16
sept.-
16
dec.-16
mar.-16
june-17
sept.-
17
dec.-17
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
55
Natural gas: hubs and volumes traded in Europe
NBPTTF
GTF
PEG NORD
ZEE
PEG SUD
PEG TIGF
MS- ATR
PSV
NCG
GPL
CEGH
VOLUMES
TRADED IN 2014
ON THE MAIN
EUROPEAN
MARKETS AND
GROWTH OVER
2013
European hubs
NBP: National Balancing Point
TTF: Title Transfer Facility
ZEE: Zeebrugge
PEG: Gas exchange point
NCG: NetConnect Germany
GPL: GASPOOL
CEGH: Central European Gas Hub
GTF: Gas Transfer Facility
PSV: Punto di Scambio Virtuale
MS-ATR: Mercado Secundario Acceso de Terceros a la Red
ZEE770TWH
(-1%)
NCG+ GASPOOL2 600TWH
(+27%)
PEG490 TWH
(+9%)
TTF11 500 TWH
(+49%)
Processed gas volumes increased again sharply in 2014. The TTF hub is becoming increasingly liquid and its volumes have closed on those
handled on the NBP.
Sources: Hubs map: PowerNext
Exchanges data: TSOs, Electronic trading platforms & GDF SUEZ Trading
NBP 14 371 TWH
(-9%)
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
56
Natural gas: supply chain costs
BREAKDOWN OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY COSTS TO A CLIENT CONNECTED TO THE ENGIE PUBLIC
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM (EXCL. TAX)
Natural gas regulated tariffs cover all the costs borne by ENGIE.
• Procurement costs• Infrastructure costs: natural gas transport and distribution costs are set by the authorities on proposal of the CRE (French energy regulation commission), while storage costs are determined by operators.
• Marketing costs are set by the operators and management costs associated with contracts, invoicing, call centres, etc.
The gas industry is highly ca-pital-intensive with long develop-ment times (it is usually considered that gas transport costs ten times
more than that of oil for an equal quantity of transported energy). The onerous nature of these investments explains why the gas in-dustry developed on the basis of long term commercial contracts between the main pro-ducers and gas companies (even if on ma-ture systems, such as the European network, shorter term contracts now co-exist with long term contracts).
The share of infrastructure (transport, storage and distribution) in the total cost ex-cluding taxes may account for almost half of the price paid by the client on the public network.Source: ENGIE, Energy France, 2014
Storage 5%
€/$ 2% Marketing 16%
Transport 9%
Heavy fuel 0%
Domestic heating oil
1%
Natural gas29%
Brent5%
Distribution33%
Gas chain costs
Order of magnitude
Cost of production from 0 to 9 $/MMBtu *(free for gas associated with oil production, high in marginal fields)
International transmission cost
Via pipeline from $0.35 to $0.70 onshore from $0.60 to $1/MMBtu/1,000 km offshore (for large pipes, over 36-inch diameter)
By LNG **
Liquefaction from $0.50 to $3/MMBtu
Transport (tanker ***) from $1.30 to $1.80/MMBtu
Regasification from $0.30 to $1.50/MMBtu
Total LNG cost from $2.10 to $6.30/MMBtu
Storage cost ****
Depleted fields and aquifers from $0.30 to $1.50/MMBtu
Saline caverns from $4 to > $8/MMBtu
Domestic transport and distribution costs
Capital invested from $1.25 to $ 2.75/MMBtu
Operating cost from $0.15 to $0.25/MMBtu
Total transport and distribution from $1.4 to $3/MMBtu
Source: IFP - Economie de la chaîne gazière: Storengy, ENGIE, CEEME: 2014
* IEA cost range for conventional gas (WEO 2013)** Example based on an 8 million tonnes / year LNG chain over 8,000 km *** 216,000 m3 LNG tanker**** Nominal storage capacity unit reservation charge
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
57
Electricity: prices in Europe
The downturn in European electricity market prices conti-nued. Weaker demand combined with lower fuel prices and RES ex-pansion have been driving wholesale prices lower ever since 2011. Over the past three years they have dropped 39% in Germany and
29% in France.
Fear over the security of electricity supply. In Europe, market prices are generally too low to foster the investment that would secure electricity sup-ply. Many countries have therefore adopted emergency measures, such as strategic reserves held outside the markets (Belgium, Germany, UK, Poland) and/or capacity auctions.
Capacity payment mechanisms. Several countries have also decided on longer-term measures to guarantee capacity is paid for, whether through capacity markets (UK, France, Italy) or capacity payment systems (Ireland, Spain).
Persistent price differentials. Despite market convergence, technical constraints on interconnections mean frequent and substantial electricity price discrepancies between neighbouring European countries. The price differential between France and Germany was over €5/MWh baseload in 2014, for example, and almost €10/MWh over the entire winter. That differential is likely to contract somewhat in 2015 because of the late onset of cold weather.
Residential and industrial prices increased by an average 12% between 2010 and 2014 in Europe, despite cheaper wholesale prices. This has widened the competitiveness deficit relative to the USA, where industrial prices fell 3% over the same period.
Electricity price,€/MWh
Residential price € 05/MWh Industrial price € 05/MWh Month ahead
2000 2010 2014 2000 2010 2014 2013 2014 H1 2015
UE 28 128 158 177 62 99 111
Germany 141 223 256 47 95 118 38 34 31
Belgium 159 158 157 58 85 79
Spain 149 166 183 54 89 113
France 121 116 135 61 69 78 43 36 36
Italy 166 181 193 109 177 206
UK 111 152 176 58 100 107
USA $/MWh 93 104 104 52 61 59 46 65 60
USA €/MWh 75 83 83 42 49 47 34 48 46
Japan 165 149 179 110 99 132
Sources: residential and industrial prices in constant 2005 euros, including taxes; Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015);
Spot, Month Ahead prices on 20th October 2015 (PJM Electricity Futures, pit session (USA); GDF SUEZ Trading.
Source: GDF SUEZ Trading,
November 2015
ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICES – MONTH AHEAD CONTRACT (€/MWH)
Germany base Month Ahead
France base Month Ahead
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
jan.-0
7
may-0
7
sept.-
07
jan.-0
8
may-0
8
sept.-
08
jan.-0
9
may-0
9
sept.-
09
jan.-1
0
may-1
0
sept.-
10
jan.-1
1
may-1
1
sept.-
11
jan.-1
2
may-1
2
sept.-
12
jan.-1
3
may-1
3
sept.-
13
jan.-1
4
may-1
4
sept.-
14
jan.-1
5
may-1
5
sept.-
15
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
58
Electricity: prices in the USA, Latin America and Asia
US electricity prices steadily declined until 2013, as in Europe, but picked up strongly in 2014 despite unchanged demand. This resulted from low temperatures (major price peaks during the winter) and higher fuel prices in North America (WTI and Henry Hub appreciated in H1 2014). More moderate winter price
peaks in 2015 are likely to bring annual average prices down, however, to somewhere between their 2013 and 2014 levels.
Electricity prices in Latin America: Brazilian spot prices hit record levels in 2014 and early 2015 because of the extended use of relatively costly thermal capacity. Very low rainfall undermined hydro production, which had to be topped up from thermal plants (hydro power represents 70% of Brazil’s electricity capacity). In Colombia, too, lower hydro production kept prices under pressure. Elsewhere, and in Peru and Chile in particular, electricity prices trended down in line with fuel prices.
Electricity prices in Asia and Pacific: in India, lower fuel prices and already comfortable production margins have been keeping electricity prices contained for nearly a year. Australian prices have also been fairly stable, thanks to well-supplied markets.
Source: GDF SUEZ Trading, November 2015
LATIN AMERICA €/MWH
ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICE IN THE USA – MONTH AHEAD (€/MWH)
ASIA-PACIFIC €/MWH
jan.-0
7
july-07
july-08
jan.-0
8
jan.-0
9
july-09
july-10
jan.-1
0
july-11
jan.-1
1
july-12
jan.-1
2
july-13
jan.-1
3
july-14
jan.-1
4
july-15
jan.-1
50
50
100
150
200
250
300
jan.-0
7
may-0
7
sept.-
07
jan.-0
8
may-0
8
sept.-
08
jan.-0
9
may-0
9
sept.-
09
jan.-1
0
may-1
0
sept.-
10
jan.-1
1
may-1
1
sept.-
11
jan.-1
2
may-1
2
sept.-
12
jan.-1
3
may-1
3
sept.-
13
jan.-1
4
may-1
4
sept.-
14
jan.-1
5
may-1
5
sept.-
150
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
India Australia average Australia – Victoria Source: IHS, october 2015
Colombia Precio de Bolsa Peru Spot Brazil average Chile averageSource: IHS, october 2015
USA - PJM base Month Ahead (NYMEX)
jan.-1
2
mar.-1
2
july-12
may-1
2
sept.1
2
nov-12
jan.-1
3
mar.-1
3
july-13
may-1
3
sept.1
3
nov-13
jan.-1
4
mar.-1
4
july-14
may-1
4
sept.1
4
nov-14
jan.-1
5
mar.-1
5
july-15
may-1
5
sept.1
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
59
Electricity: volumes traded in Europe
BEL40 TWH (-16%)
FR751 TWH (+67%)
GER3,350 TWH
(-18%)
UK661 TWH
(-1%)
ESP270 TWH (-22%)
NL220 TWH
(-1%)
VOLUMES TRADED ON THE MAIN EUROPEAN MARKETS IN 2014
AND GROWTH OVER 2013
NB: Baseload volumes only.Sources: TSOs, Electronic trading platforms & GDF SUEZ Trading
Volumes traded in France rose sharply in 2014, mainly because of gradually fading industrial interest in ARENH supply. Volumes on other
hubs fell back, probably because demand was weaker than the year before.
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
60
Electricity: range of production costs
NB: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA; Global trends in
clean energy investment, 12 october 2015
AVERAGE DISCOUNTED COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, BY TECHNOLOGY (LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY)
Q2 2013 central
H1 2014 central
Fossil technologies:
US
China
Europe
Australia
The cost of producing elec-tricity depends on numerous factors, including fuel costs, the plant’s operational life and invest-
ment costs. For that reason, numbers shown opposite may vary from one region to the next, and according to the valuation year. This makes it difficult to evaluate the compe-titiveness of each type of production.
0 100 200 300 400 500
Nuclear
Marine - wave
Marine - tidal
STEG - LFR
STEG - parabolic trough
STEG - tower & heliostat
Wind - offshore
PV - thin film
PV - c-Si
PV - c-Si - tracking
Biomass - anaerobic disgestion
Biomass - gasification
Biomass - incineration
Municipal solid waste
Geothermal - binary plant
Geothermal - flash plant
Natural gas CCGT
CHP
Coal fired
Wind - on shore
Small hydro
Large hydro
Landfill gas
$/MWh
PV Projects as low as $58/MWh
Onshore windas low as $37/MWh
1 037844
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
61
Coal: prices
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
110 100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World imports of steam coal and lignite by sea continued to rise in 2014 (by 2%, or 20 million tonnes), but at a slower pace than in 2013 (up 4%) and 2012 (up 15%). In 2015, the trend is a decline in imports, which would represent a major change from the 2000s. This situation stems largely from the fall in Chinese imports (-19 million tonnes in 2014 and potentially -60 million tonnes in 2015). Reflecting excess supply on international markets and lower production costs, coal prices continued a decline that started mid-2011. They are currently trading at five-year lows,
around $60/tonne for ARA CIF.
Bituminous coal€/t
Import prices CIF Estimated power station delivery prices (incl. tax)
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
EuropeGermany 77 66 60 98 82 75Belgium 100 85 80 73 64 41
Spain 77 72 65 75 91 72France 91 78 73 99 92 77
Italy 91 74 67 83 84 85UK 81 69 65 82 72 71UE 84 71 65 82 72 65
USA 72 63 64 42 40 40Japan 104 84 74 121 98 89Spot price (MCIS) $/t 109 96 89
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
STEAM COAL DELIVERY PRICES TO POWER STATIONS, INCL. TAX – €/T
COAL PRICES, ACTUAL AND FORECAST – NOMINAL $ / TONNE
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source:
IHS CERA (June 2015)
Germany
UK
USA
Coal ARA
Coal Colombia
Coal Australia
Coal Russia Baltic
Bituminous coal Spot FOB Export Price (€/t) Spot FOB Export Price ($/t)
2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1
Australia 74.4 64.1 53.2 53.9 95.8 85.1 70.7 60.2
South Africa 72.4 60.5 54.4 55.0 93.1 80.3 72.4 61.3
Colombia 65.1 54.3 50.3 49.9 83.8 72.0 66.8 55.6
NB: Bituminous coal = coal destined for electricity generation Sources: Argus & McCloskey 20152013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2008 2007
2009 2010
20112012
2018 2019
406080
100120140160180200
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
62
Coal: prices
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015 2013 2011 0
BITUMINOUS COAL – SPOT PRICE, NOMINAL $ / TONNE
NB: Bituminous coal = coal destined for electricity generation.* ARA: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Anvers.
API#2 ARA * CIF
South Africa FOB
Australia FOB
Colombia FOB
Japan CIF
Source: McCloskey, Argus, October 2015
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
63
Coal: cost structure
Cost estimates refer to the supply chain for bituminous coal
traded internationally.
Variable costs make up the largest part of the cost structure and have risen sharply since the early 2000s. Higher costs of produc-
tion are linked to such factors as the development of more difficult mines (geo-logically, or because of distance) and more expensive labour, steel and energy. Part of the increase is directly related to exchange rate effects when costs are expressed in US dollars, but this trend reversed in the course of 2012, especially for South Africa, and in 2013 for Australia and more recently for Russia. The rouble depreciated 21% against the dollar in 2014 and another 50% in H1 2015.
The drop in coal prices resulting from excess supply undermines pro-ducers’ profitability, with some forced either to scale back their output (United States, China) or to focus on cutting costs (Australia, Indonesia). In 2014, some large companies cut production costs by around 20%.
Maritime transport costs are another key part of the coal supply equa-tion. That said, the economic crisis of the past few years and a significant increase in capacity following ship deliveries have created surplus capacity that has brought freight costs down, and they have stayed low ever since 2009. The market’s weakness is illustrated by a rise in the number of bulk carriers sent for scrap, despite low iron prices.
Total Costs vs. Spot Price ARA CIF ($/tec)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
South Africa (RSA)
Royalties 5 4 4 3
Mine OPEX 19 22 26 27 28 27 40 43 48 45 44 39
Transport and port costs 7 8 11 11 21 19 24 25 37 35 31 28
CAPEX 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8
Maritime transport costs 17 24 18 19 33 35 15 15 13 9 11 11
South Africa cost of delivery to Rotterdam
49 60 62 64 88 89 86 90 111 102 97 89
Australia
Royalties 1 2 5 5 6 8 6 8 9 7 6 6
Mine OPEX 20 22 29 29 37 44 45 56 68 70 64 57
Transport and port costs 6 7 7 7 9 10 10 13 20 22 20 19
CAPEX 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9
Maritime transport costs 23 32 25 25 49 48 22 21 19 16 19 18
Australie cost of delivery to Rotterdam
56 70 72 72 107 117 90 105 124 123 118 109
ARA CIF spot price 51 83 71 74 103 172 81 108 142 108 95 88
Source: ENGIE 2015
ENERGY PRICES & COSTS
64
CO2: prices
Dec -15
Sept. -16
Dec. -16
mar. -17
June -17
Sept. -17
8.648.668.688.708.728.748.768.788.808.828.84
00
55
1100
1155
2200
2255
3300
June-05
Dec.-05
June-06
Dec.-06
June-07
Dec.-07
June-08
Dec.-08
June-09
Dec.-09
June-10
Dec.-10
June-11
Dec.-11
June-12
Dec.-12
June-13
Dec.-13
June-14
Dec.-14
June-15
Oct-15
CO2 price, € / t Spot
2006Spot 2007
Spot 2008
Spot 2009
Spot 2010
Spot 2011
Spot 2012
Spot 2013
Spot 2014
Spot H1 2015
Forward 2015
Forward 2016
Forward 2017
Europe 17.4 0.7 17.0 13.2 14.4 13.0 7.4 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.6 8.7 8.8
Source: GDF SUEZ Trading (Forward October 30, 2015)
CO2 ALLOWANCES ON THE EU ETS MARKET €/TONNE OF CO
2CO
2 FUTURES PRICES ON THE EU ETS MARKET – PHASE II
FORWARD CURVE IN OCTOBER 2015 – €/TONNE
The EU has intervened twice to combat low quota prices on the European market. At end-2013 it artificially reduced quota volumes auctioned for the three following years (“back-loading”), and in September 2015 it decided to introduce a Market Stability Reserve in 2019 that will withdraw or add quotas in the light of market conditions, thereby adjusting supply better to demand and avoiding major price variations.
These measures have had little effect on prices, however, which rose by about $5/tonne between mid-2014 and end-2015. As quotas have been frozen only temporarily, potential supply remains greater than demand. At end-2015, CO
2 cost €8/tonne, which is not high enough to send a strong signal to low-carbon investment.
Low quota prices mainly reflect the European economic and energy environment. Up until now, there has been no mechanism to match quota supply with demand, and in the meantime industrial production has contracted because of the economic crisis, energy efficiency policies have been implemented and renewable energies have been developed.
At international level, and in the run-up to the Paris conference, a number of carbon pricing measures have emerged. Worldwide, planned or implemented carbon pricing mechanisms (emission taxes and markets) have increased from 20 to 38 in three years. Some 40 national jurisdictions and over 20 cities, states and regions, representing almost a quarter of world GHG emissions have introduced carbon pricing. These systems cover approximately 12% of world emissions, or 7 Gt of CO
2 (see map page 39). These mechanisms could be improved by harmonising the methodologies
used to calculate reductions, by enhancing transparency in reporting and by expanding the scope of qualifying emissions (Source: State and Trends of Carbon Pricing, World Bank, September 2015).
Futures prices of CO2 in €/tonne
Source: GDF SUEZ Trading
Monthly average of CO2 prices, €/tonne
OIL
OilPRODUCTION
In both 2014 and 2015, production increased faster than demand despite low oil prices.Saudi Arabia’s strategy has taken many market players by surprise. Will it be a winning policy over the long run, and can it be sustained?
CONSUMPTION
Chinese oil consumption keeps increasing, but until when? The growth of middle class consumption that drives Beijing’s policy will boost car ownership. But will that offset diminishing oil consumption in the industrial sector?
65
66 Production and exports
68 Consumption and imports
70 Focus on Shale Oil
72 World trade flows
OIL
66
In the US, the increase in light tight oil (also called shale oil) production reached record highs in 2014 and continued to expand in 2015 despite low prices. The number of wells drilled fell markedly in 2015, however, pointing to lower output in 2016 despite lower operating costs in the unconventional sector.
Saudi Arabia’s decision not to lose any more market share in an over-supplied environment sent prices lower. This strategy was interpreted in various ways, from a desire to hamper light tight oil expansion in the USA to reducing production in Iran, and even that the Saudis had joined forces with the Americans to punish Russia. But what if Saudi Arabia has simply
acknowledged that oil is not going to be used forever (especially if it is expensive) and has a very long-term view?
Oil: production and exports
Oil Actual ForecastsProduction Exports Production 2040
IEA New Policies scenario – WEO 2015 2000 2014 2000 2014
Mt Share in world total Mt Share in
world totalChange
2013-2014Mt Share in
world total Mt Share in world total
Change 2013-2014
Mtoe Share in world total
Europe 336 9% 163 4% 1.0% 263 13% 116 6% -2% 106 -2%European Union 171 5% 72 2% -1.6% 117 6% 50 2% -5% n.d
North America 478 13% 716 17% 12.9% 82 4% 189 9% 20% 1,012 1%USA 353 10% 510 12% 15.6% 6 0% 42 2% 86% 511 0.0%
Latin America 523 14% 530 13% -0.4% 257 13% 235 11% 1% 328 -2%Brazil 64 2% 120 3% 11% 1 0% 29 1% 42% 255 3%
Asia 340 9% 380 9% 0% 83 4% 39 2% -18% 284 -1%China 163 4% 214 5% 1% 10 1% 0 0% -78% 164 -1%India 36 1% 43 1% 3% 0 0% 0 0% 34 -1%
Pacific 38 1% 21 1% -3% 23 1% 14 1% -4% n.dAustralia 32 1% 18 0.4% -4% 18 1% 12 1% -6% n.d
CIS 392 11% 674 16% 0% 182 9% 333 16% -4% 588 -1%Russia 322 9% 529 13% 1% 144 7% 223 11% -6% 434 -1%
Middle East 1,135 31% 1,329 32% 1% 798 40% 860 41% -1% 1,855 1%Iran 199 5% 154 4% 2% 116 6% 51 2% 4% 260 2%UAE 121 3% 158 4% 0% 93 5% 127 6% -1% 212 1%
Saudi Arabia 436 12% 546 13% 1% 312 16% 353 17% -5% 646 1%Africa 386 11% 395 9% -7% 293 15% 316 15% -8% 63 -7%OPEP 1,509 42% 1,727 41% -1% 1,077 54% 1,175 56% -3% 2,370 1%Non-OPEP 2,119 58% 2,481 59% 2% 905 46% 926 44% - 2,472 0.0%World, Mt 3,628 100% 4,208 100% 2% 1,982 100% 2,101 100% -1% 4,722 0.4%World, Mbl/d 76 88 41 44 98
NB: Production = Crude oil and Natural gas liquids (NGL), i.e. all the hydrocarbon liquids to be refined. NB: IEA forecasts - World total is made of 82.6 Mbl/d of conventional oil and 10.8 Mbl/d of unconventional oil (for a total of 93.4 Mbl/d), plus 2.2 Mbl/d of biofuels and 2.5 Mbl/d of processing gain.
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) Forecasts: IEA, WEO 2015
OIL
67
Oil: production – long series
Oil production,Millions of tonnes
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 /2014Share of
2014 totalUSA 499 417 384 348 309 333 346 394 449 520 16% 12%Canada 86 93 112 125 142 160 170 183 194 210 8% 5%North America 730 655 646 643 638 639 660 721 785 867 10% 21%Brazil 29 34 38 67 89 111 114 112 110 122 11% 3%Venezuela 92 118 155 160 170 146 141 139 138 140 1% 3%South & Central America 193 234 300 344 375 377 379 377 376 391 4% 9%Norway 39 82 138 161 139 99 94 87 83 86 3% 2%Russia 542 516 311 327 475 512 519 526 531 534 1% 13%UK 128 92 130 126 85 63 52 45 41 40 -2% 1%Europe & Eurasia 807 788 669 729 850 861 846 838 833 834 0% 20%Iran 110 163 185 192 206 209 209 177 166 169 2% 4%Irak 70 105 26 129 90 121 137 152 153 160 5% 4%Saudi Arabia 172 343 437 456 521 474 526 550 538 543 1% 13%UAE 58 108 112 124 136 133 151 155 166 167 1% 4%Middle East 516 852 979 1151 1,226 1,218 1,325 1,342 1,325 1,340 1% 32%Algeria 50 57 57 67 86 74 72 67 65 66 2% 2%Angola 11 23 31 37 69 91 84 87 87 83 -5% 2%Libya 48 67 68 70 82 78 22 71 46 23 -50% 1%Nigeria 74 92 97 106 122 121 118 116 111 114 3% 3%Africa 261 321 339 371 471 480 405 442 413 392 -5% 9%China 125 138 149 163 181 203 203 207 210 211 1% 5%Indonesia 66 74 76 72 54 49 46 45 43 41 -4% 1%Asia Pacific 289 326 352 383 383 402 395 400 395 397 0.5% 9%World 2,797 3,175 3,286 3,620 3,942 3,975 4,008 4,116 4,127 4,221 2% 100%OECD 959 894 976 1,006 926 857 858 904 955 1,040 9% 25%OPEP 772 1,159 1,317 1,511 1,694 1,667 1,705 1,779 1,734 1,730 -0.3% 41%Non-OPEP (excl. CIS) 1,428 1,446 1,610 1,712 1,667 1,646 1,638 1,669 1,716 1814 6% 43%European Union 164 128 168 168 127 93 82 73 69 67 -2% 2%Ex – USSR 597 571 358 397 581 663 665 669 676 677 0.1% 16%
Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
OIL
68
Oil: consumption and imports
Oil Actual Forecasts ForecastsPrimary oil consumption Crude oil imports (incl. LPG) Consumption 2020 Consumption 2040
2000 2014 2000 2014 IEA New Policies scenario – WEO 2015
Mt Share in world total Mt Share in
world totalChange
2013-2014Mt Share in
world total Mt Share in world total
Change 2013-2014
MtShare in world
totalMtoe Share in world total
Europe 679 19% 566 14% -1.6% 657 32% 585 27% -2.3% 516 0% 361 -2%European Union 624 17% 510 12% -0.7% 628 31% 559 26% -2.0% 472 0.0 318 0
North America 922 26% 847 20% 0.7% 558 27% 429 20% -7.8% 1,060 1% 834 0%USA 834 23% 743 18% 0.6% 511 25% 401 19% -7.2% 843 0% 631 -1%
Latin America 300 8% 374 9% -0.1% 63 3% 52 2% -10.7% 289 -1% 323 -1%Brazil 87 2% 125 3% 5.5% 20 1% 18 1% -7.7% 130 0.2% 164 1%
Asia 890 25% 1,248 30% 0.7% 645 32% 979 45% 1.8% 1,185 0% 1,657 1%China 221 6% 494 12% 2.9% 70 3% 309 14% 9.5% 602 1% 737 2%India 108 3% 176 4% 3.1% 74 4% 190 9% 0.2% 231 1% 472 4%
Pacific 43 1% 56 1% -0.1% 27 1% 29 1% -5.3% 0 -1 0 -1Australia 36 1% 47 1% -0.5% 22 1% 23 1% -5.5% 0 -1 0 -1
CIS 175 5% 231 6% 2.2% 25 1% 28 1% 6.3% 246 0.2% 251 0%Russia 127 4% 178 4% 3.2% 6 0% 2 0% 66.7% 149 -1% 145 -1%
Middle East 219 6% 342 8% -1.5% 20 1% 20 1% 0.0% 424 1% 535 2%Iran 69 2% 86 2% -1.8% 1 0% 1 0% 0.0% n.d. n.d.UAE 8 0% 15 0% 11.1% 0 0% 0 0% n.d. n.d.
Saudi Arabia 66 2% 127 3% -1.3% 0 0% 0 0% n.d. n.d.Africa 104 3% 175 4% 3.3% 38 2% 43 2% 10.2% 212 1% 299 2%World 3,601 100% 4,187 100% 0.2% 2,032 100% 2,165 100% -1.6% 4,722 0.5% 5,189 1%World in Mbl/d 75 87 42 45 98.0 0.5% 107.7 1%
NB: The difference between world production and world consumption comes from inventories and statistical discrepancies.Bunker oil is not included in the regional oil volumes but is included in the world total. Conversion factor between ton of oil and toe: 1 ton of oil = 1.02 toe.NB: IEA forecasts – World total includes 2.1 Mt of biofuels in 2020. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Forecasts: IEA, WEO 2015
Oil consumption in non-OECD countries continued to grow in 2014, and Chinese car fuel consumption in particular (the Chinese car fleet expanded 12% in 2014 to 264 millions vehicles). In the US, consumption increased on the back of a re-industrialisation supported by low energy prices.
Oil consumption contracted further in OECD countries (excl. in the US) due to improved energy efficiency, notably in the automotive sector.
OIL
69
Oil: consumption – long series
Oil consumption, Millions of tonnes
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2013 /2014Part du Total
2014USA 552 707 785 789 711 772 797 884 940 850 832 836 0.5% 20%Canada 54 72 81 90 71 80 81 90 100 101 103 103 -0.5% 2%North America 620 798 898 929 843 923 953 1,062 1,131 1,040 1,025 1,024 -0.1% 24%Brazil 15 25 44 55 55 64 79 92 95 119 135 143 5% 3%South & Central America 82 103 133 164 151 173 205 229 243 286 318 327 3% 8%Belgium 16 26 25 26 20 24 28 31 33 34 30 30 -0.6% 1%France 54 94 110 110 84 89 89 95 93 85 79 77 -3% 2%Germany 86 139 143 147 126 127 135 130 122 115 113 112 -2% 3%Italy 52 87 95 98 84 94 96 94 87 73 61 57 -7% 1%Russia n/a n/a n/a n/a 247 252 152 123 126 134 147 148 1% 4%UK 74 104 92 81 77 83 82 79 83 74 69 69 0% 2%Europe & Eurasia 591 928 1,093 1,198 1,085 1,128 949 931 965 908 869 859 -1% 20%Iran 7 11 22 29 45 52 64 70 81 87 95 93 -2% 2%Saudi Arabia 20 20 18 30 47 54 60 73 88 124 132 142 7% 3%Middle East 44 52 65 99 148 176 214 244 293 354 383 393 3% 9%Egypt 7 6 8 13 21 24 23 27 30 36 36 39 8% 1%South Africa 6 9 12 12 14 17 20 22 25 27 28 29 5% 1%Africa 28 37 50 70 84 96 106 119 139 164 172 179 4% 4%China 11 28 68 85 90 113 160 224 327 438 504 520 3% 12%India 13 20 23 32 43 58 75 106 122 155 175 181 3% 4%Japan 88 199 244 238 208 248 271 259 247 203 208 197 -5% 5%Singapore 4 8 7 10 12 23 33 38 41 61 65 66 2% 2%South Korea 1 8 14 24 26 50 95 104 105 105 108 108 0% 3%Asia Pacific 165 339 454 515 506 666 867 999 1,149 1,290 1,412 1,429 1% 34%World 1,530 2,257 2,693 2,975 2,817 3,162 3,293 3,584 3,919 4,042 4,179 4,211 1% 100%OECD 1,144 1,697 1,905 1,966 1,745 1,941 2,082 2,224 2,305 2,116 2,057 2,032 -1% 48%Non-OPEP (excl. CIS) 386 560 787 1,010 1,072 1,222 1,212 1,360 1,615 1,926 2,122 2,179 3% 52%European Union 400 645 697 724 629 661 680 702 725 662 602 593 -2% 14%Ex -USSR 168 245 349 421 421 419 220 174 181 186 206 207 0.3% 5%
Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
OIL
70
Oil: focus on shale oil
Shale oil (or light tight oil) refers to oil extracted directly from bedrock (shale) or from other rocks showing very low permeability (tight). Extraction involves horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking).This type of oil is usually of high quality (light, low sulphur content, etc.).An obvious parallel can be drawn between shale gas and shale oil: fairly similar production techniques, abundant and unexpected discoveries, exponential increase in production.
CLASSIFICATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL CHANGE IN OIL PRODUCTION IN THE IEA NEW POLICIES SCENARIO, 2014-2040
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (2015)
0 1 2 3 54-1-2-3-4
OPEC member
Iraq
Brazil
Canada
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
United-Arab-Emirates
Qatar
mb/d
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Argentina
United Kingdom
Azerbaijan
Norway
China
United States
Russia
Crude oil Tight oil Other unconventional oil NGLsSource: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (2015)
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
Extra-heavy oil & bitumen
Tight oil
Gas to liquids
Coal to liquid
Kerogen oil
Additives
Crude oil
Natural gas liquids
Oil sands
Other crude
Condensate
Ethane, propane, butanes & pentane
Extra heavy oil
Oil supply
Biofuels supply
Liquids supply
Oil production
Refinery processing
gains
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Other biofuels
OIL
71
Oil: Focus on shale oil production in the United States
According to the US Energy Information Administration estimates (EIA, interna-tional energy statistics), US shale oil reserves amount to 88 billion barrels. While other countries’ reserves are difficult to assess, all conventional oil producing regions have potential shale reserves. Argentina and Russia, two countries with existing infrastruc-
tures and proven reserves, could well be the next players in the oil revolution.
The very large increase in oil production in the USA, now the world’s largest producer (see introductory section), clearly relates to the uncon-ventional oil revolution. US tight oil production has increased by almost 4 Mbbl/d since the early 2010s. While the extent of US reserves is still unclear, the International
Energy Agency is forecasting an 1.5 Mbbl/d increase in tight oil production to 5.2 Mbbl/d by 2020. US energy independence and export capacity will therefore strengthen markedly.
Considerable potential in countries such as Canada, Russia and Argentina will extend this revolution outside the USA. According to the IEA New Policies scenario, the share of unconventional oil in total world oil production – virtually zero in 1990 – will hit 15% by 2040.
US OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTS (IEA – WEO 2015)
CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTS IN THE IEA NEW POLICIES SCENARIO
world oil production Unconventional oil production Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (2015)
LTO Golf of Mexico NGLs Other liquids Other crude & cond.Source: International Energy Agency, Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
0.5% 7.2% 11.7% 11.3% 12.4% 13.4% 14.4%
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
mb
/d
OIL
72
Oil: world trade flows in 2014
MAIN OIL TRADE FLOWS IN 2014 (MILLIONS OF TONNES)
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2015
28.9
57.4 34.4
37.2
59.5 30.8
101.6
296.4
157.0
45.815.6
171.7
53.3
19,6
121.125.4
237.0
37.5
47.4
26.8 19.9
27.3
.8
31.9
22.0
18.1
16.9
78.4
93.0
79.2
167.7
39.0
41.8
26.5
18.2
63.7
USA
Canada
Mexico
South & Central America
Europa & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
COAL
CoalPRODUCTION
Although production contracted in line with weaker demand in 2014, the market is still in surplus.In this very bearish market for coal prices, cost-cutting has become a key issue for producers.
CONSUMPTION
Following a decade of robust growth associated for the most part with Chinese economic development and coal’s competitiveness within developed countries for electricity generation, coal consumption is now flagging. Condemned by environmental policies, coal will lose ground to lower-carbon energies. Its future depends heavily on emerging countries, where it remains an essential resource.
73
74 Production and exports
76 Consumption and imports
78 World trade flows
COAL
Coal
74
Coal: production and exports
Coal remains one of the most abundant fossil fuels and has posted the fastest growth since the 2000s. 2014 might have been a turning point in terms of green energy, although that needs confirmation. The fact is that for the first time (apart from during the Asian crisis) coal production fell in China, while in the USA, the world’s second largest producer behind China, it has been trending lower for several years (unchanged in 2014, and down again in 2015 according to early statistics).That said, coal remains the world’s second source of energy, just behind oil. Its consumption is highly regionalised, with most coal and lignite used in the country of production
(China, India, USA, Russia, South Africa). Unless very tough environmental constraints kick in, coal will lose little ground in the coming decades (a 24% share in the 2040 energy mix according to the IEA’s New Policies scenario – see details in the Introduction).
Coal and Lignite, Mt
Actual Forecasts
Production Exports Production 2040
2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 Change IEA New Policies scenario – WEO 2015
Mt Share in world total Mt Share in
world total 2000-2014 2013-2014 Mt Mt 2000-2014 2013-2014 Mtce (see conversions below)
Change 2013-2040
Europe 778 17% 688 9% -12% -1% 54 72 33% 17% 74 -4.2%European Union 657 14% 538 7% -18% -4% 53 69 30% 18% 61 -4.7%
North America 1,041 22% 993 13% -5% 1% 86 127 47% -12% 487 -1.6%USA 972 21% 924 12% -5% 1% 54 89 64% -17% 442 -1.6%
Latin America 65 1% 120 2% 84% 4% 44 80 82% 3% 119 1.2%Brazil 7 0% 9 0.1% 35% 7% 0 0 - - nd nd
Mexico 11 0% 15 0.2% 30% -3% 0.01 0.004 -31% -24% nd ndAsia 1,850 40% 4,737 60% 156% -1% 135 471 249% -5% 4,362 0.7%
China 1,354 29% 3,474 44% 157% -2% 70 8 -88% -23% 2,706 -0.1%India 336 7% 654 8% 95% 7% 1 2 60% 0% 926 3.8%
Pacific 310 7% 484 6% 56% 4% 189 366 94% 8% nd ndCIS 388 8% 533 7% 37% -2% 78 200 157% 8% 473 0.3%
Russia 242 5% 355 5% 47% 2% 40 159 297% 11% 307 0.6%Middle East 2 0.03% 2 0.02% 9% 9% 0.1 0.15 118% 0% 1 0.4%
Israel 0.4 0.01% 0.3 0.00% -12% -2% 0 0 - - nd ndAfrica 231 5% 278 4% 20% 3% 71 82 16% 6% 309 1.3%
South Africa 224 5% 265 3% 18% 4% 70 77 10% 7% 210 0.0%World 4,664 100% 7,834 100% 68% -0.5% 657 1,398 113% 1% 6,306 0.4%
NB: The average conversion factor between 1 ton of coal and 1 toe depends on the coal quality. As the coal production includes various coals, Enerdata statistics use country specific conversion factors - the world average conversion in 2013 was: 1 ton of coal = 0.509 toe = 0.727 tce.IEA forecasts are given in Mtoe terms (ton of coal equivalent)with a conversion factor of 1 Mtoe = 1.429 Mtce (close to the ton of steam coal). Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
COAL
75
Coal: production by region – long series
Coal production, Mtoe
1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013/2014 Share of world total in 2014
USA 463 487 566 555 570 580 597 551 556 518 501 508 1% 13%
North America 488 525 609 602 615 622 639 594 601 561 545 551 1% 14%
Colombia 3 6 14 17 25 38 48 48 56 58 56 58 4% 1%
South & Central America 7 10 19 23 34 46 54 53 60 62 62 65 4% 2%
Germany 149 149 125 79 61 57 50 46 47 48 45 44 -2% 1%
Kazakhstan n/a 68 68 43 38 44 57 54 56 59 58 55 -5% 1%
Poland 98 118 94 91 71 69 60 55 57 59 58 55 -4% 1%
Russia n/a 179 178 120 117 140 154 151 159 170 169 171 1% 4%
Europe et Eurasia 788 807 731 510 438 448 463 444 463 476 461 442 -4% 11%
Middle East 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 0%
South Africa 75 100 100 117 127 138 141 144 143 147 145 148 2% 4%
Africa 78 103 105 122 131 142 143 147 146 149 150 152 1% 4%
Australia 65 88 109 130 167 206 225 241 233 250 268 281 5% 7%
China 311 436 540 680 707 1,241 1,491 1,665 1,853 1,872 1,894 1,845 -3% 47%
India 63 71 92 118 132 162 196 218 216 229 229 244 6% 6%
Indonesia 0 1 7 26 47 94 148 169 217 237 276 282 2% 7%
Asia Pacific 494 658 799 995 1,092 1,760 2,120 2,366 2,599 2,664 2,742 2,723 -1% 69%
World 1,855 2,104 2,265 2,252 2,310 3,018 3,421 3,604 3,869 3,913 3,961 3,933 -1% 100%
OECD 991 1,061 1,098 1,017 1,006 1,033 1,055 1,013 1,015 992 984 999 2% 25%
Non OECD 864 1,043 1,166 1,236 1,304 1,985 2,366 2,591 2,854 2,921 2,978 2,934 -1% 75%
European Union 422 430 367 279 216 198 178 165 170 169 158 151 -4% 4%
Ex-USSR 346 356 341 211 202 230 257 251 266 280 279 265 -5% 7%
NB: according to BP, one toe of coal equals approximately 1.5 tonne of anthracite or 3 tonnes of lignite. Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
COAL
76
Coal: consumption and imports
Coal & Lignite, Mt
Actual ForecastsPrimary coal & lignite consumption o/w entered in power plants Final coal & lignite consumption Coal & lignite imports 2040 consumption
2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 Change IEA NPS WEO 2015
Share in world total
Share in world total
2000-2014
2013-2014
2000-2014
2013-2014
2000-2014
2013-2014
2000-2014
2013-2014
Mtoe (see conversions
below)
Change 2013-2040
Europe 973 20% 899 12% -8% -4% 776 741 -5% -4% 157 120 -23% -5% 225 298 32% 1% 192 -1.3%European Union 832 17% 719 9% -14% -6% 669 594 -11% -7% 126 88 -30% -5% 209 266 27% 1% 145 -3.8%
North America 1,046 22% 873 12% -17% -1% 964 816 -15% -1% 70 48 -31% -2.3% 39 18 -53% 1% 436 -1.6%USA 983 20% 835 11% -15% -1% 908 783 -14% -1% 62 42 -32% -2% 15 12 -22% 27% 398 -1.6%
Latin America 48 1% 74 1% 54% 4% 23 46 102% 7% 24 28 16% -3% 25 43 76% 2% 66 2.5%Brazil 22 0.5% 29 0.4% 34% 7% 7 13 79% 20% 14 18 32% -2% 15 21 44% 7% 37 1.7%
Mexico 14 0.3% 19 0.3% 40% -2% 10 16 56% 7% 3 3 -6% -26% 3 7 140% -1% nd ndAsia 2,107 44% 5,019 66% 138% 0% 1,074 3,017 181% 3% 844 1,654 96% -3% 313 1,022 226% 2% 4,778 1.0%
China 1,365 28% 3,473 46% 154% -3% 591 1,935 227% 0% 606 1,215 101% -7% 3 294 11,060% -11% 2,826 -0.1%India 359 7% 924 12% 157% 11% 273 672 146% 12% 78 243 211% 11% 23 259 1,009% 24% 1,334 3.8%
Pacific 130 3% 125 2% -4% -1% 118 114 -4% -1% 10 9 -12% 0% 0.02 0.1 220% -78% nd ndCIS 356 7% 369 5% 4% -6% 201 212 5% -3% 87 109 25% -6% 36 52 43% -1% 319 0.1%
Russia 232 5% 211 3% -9% -4% 137 127 -7% 0% 47 48 2% -4% 26 32 24% -5% 162 0.2%Middle East 13 0.3% 17 0.2% 35% -1% 11 12 13% -2% 1 5 215% -1% 11 15 38% -6% 6 1.0%
Israel 11 0.2% 12 0.2% 13% -2% 11 12 13% -2% 0.03 0 - - 10 12 18% -4% nd ndAfrica 170 4% 211 3% 24% 2% 104 126 21% -3% 30 33 10% 5% 8 11 40% 3% 259 2.1%
South Africa 157 3% 197 3% 25% 2% 98 119 21% -3% 24 27 10% 6% 1 4 229% 4% 122 -0.4%World 4,842 100% 7,587 100% 57% -1% 3,272 5,084 55% 1% 1,223 2,005 64% -3% 657 1,460 122% 2% 6,306 0.4%
NB: The average conversion factor between 1 ton of coal and 1 toe depends on the coal quality (1 ton of steam coal = 0.69 toe; 1 tonne of lignite = 0.405 toe).As the coal production includes various coals, Enerdata statistics use country specific conversion factors - the world average conversion in 2013 was: 1 ton of coal = 0.517 toe = 0.739 tce. IEA forecasts are given in Mtoe terms (ton of coal equivalent)with a conversion factor of 1 Mtoe = 1.429 Mtce (close to the ton of steam coal). Source: Enerdata, Global Energy&CO2 Data (Juin 2014) - Forecasts: IEA - WEO 2015
Demand for coal weakened in 2014 for the first time since the Asian crisis, mostly because of lower activity in China and its consequences for electricity generation, itself a beneficiary of heighte-ned hydro production. Coal consumption dropped sharply in the EU because of lower electricity consumption (unusually mild weather combined with a sluggish economy).While coal still represents an important share of energy demand (nearly 20%) in developed economies, and especially in the USA and in some European countries where it is used for electricity generation, it faces stiff competition from less polluting alternatives. Coal dominates the energy mix of emerging countries with a share of 34%, rising to 50% in Asia and 66% in China. Coal has two main uses today: electricity generation (steam coal) and steelmaking (coke). Over time, both these industries have shifted to Asia, taking coal demand with them.
NB: In November 2015, it was reported that China has been burning as much as 6% more coal than previously thought since 2000 according to new Chinese government data. This revaluation is not taken into account in this edition. (Explanation page 30).
COAL
77
Coal: consumption by region – long series
Coal consumption, Mtoe
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2013/2014Share of world total in 2014
USA 292 309 319 389 440 483 506 569 574 525 455 453 0% 12%
North America 308 327 337 413 470 514 538 606 621 567 489 489 0% 13%
Brazil 2 2 3 6 10 10 12 14 13 14 16 15 -7% 0%
South & Central America 6 7 7 10 15 18 19 21 22 27 34 32 -6% 1%
Germany 161 149 127 141 149 132 91 85 81 77 82 77 -5% 2%
Poland 59 70 84 102 100 80 72 58 56 56 56 53 -5% 1%
Russia n/a n/a n/a n/a 198 182 119 106 95 91 91 85 -6% 2%
Ukraine n/a n/a n/a n/a 77 75 42 39 38 38 41 33 -20% 1%
Europe et Eurasia 820 804 789 844 862 804 590 530 517 490 508 477 -6% 12%
Middle East 0 0 1 1 3 3 5 8 10 10 10 10 -5% 0%
South Africa 25 27 35 43 62 67 71 75 80 93 89 89 1% 2%
Africa 28 31 39 47 68 75 79 83 89 100 97 99 2% 3%
China 114 166 229 305 407 525 681 700 1,318 1,741 1,961 1,962 0% 51%
India 36 38 48 57 73 95 125 144 184 260 324 360 11% 9%
Japan 44 60 54 58 74 76 86 99 121 124 129 127 -2% 3%
South Korea 5 6 8 13 22 24 28 43 55 76 82 85 4% 2%
Asia Pacific 233 310 388 495 659 820 1,027 1,122 1,863 2,416 2,730 2,777 2% 72%
World 1,395 1,479 1,562 1,810 2,077 2,233 2,258 2,369 3,122 3,611 3,867 3,882 0% 100%
OECD 879 882 842 984 1,090 1,109 1,063 1,136 1,188 1,130 1,069 1,053 -2% 27%
Non OECD 516 598 720 826 987 1,125 1,194 1,233 1,935 2,481 2,798 2,829 1% 73%
European Union 508 477 430 485 503 457 364 321 317 281 289 270 -7% 7%
Ex-USSR 297 312 342 338 333 317 197 174 165 168 178 163 -9% 4%
NB: NB: According to BP, one toe of coal equals approximately 1.5 tonne of anthracite or 3 tonnes of lignite.Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
COAL
78
Coal: world trade flows in 2014
MAIN STEAM COAL AND LIGNITE TRADE FLOWS IN 2014 (MILLIONS OF TONNES)
Source: IHS McCloskey (August 2015)
8.7
17.9
67.7
28.2 46.4
8.7
0.6
47.2
65.7
200.1
401.8
7.3
2012 = 915 million tonnes2013 = 952 million tonnes2014 = 973 million tonnes
NATURAL GAS
PRODUCTION
It would be difficult to avoid the subject of shale gas, which is still grabbing the headlines and accounted for most of the increase in natural gas production in 2014.
CONSUMPTION
Climate imperatives will mean stable natural gas consumption worldwide to reduce the share of coal and counterbalance the intermittent nature of RES supply.
LNG
The contraction of LNG trade flows over the pas two years has not discouraged investment. New projects in regaseification are being considered in the Pacific basin, the Baltic Sea, the Adriatic Sea and on the western and southern European coastlines.
79
Natural gas
80 Production
81 Consumption
85 World trade flows
88 Natural gas in Europe
NATURAL GAS
80
Natural gas: production and exports
World production rose 1.6% in 2014 be-cause of continuing and intensive develop-ment of shale gas in North America. European production contracted markedly (-6%) as a result of
reduced production from the Groningen field in the Nether-lands. Norwegian production remained vigorous and has in-creased by an average 5% per year since 2000. It stalled in 2014 but picked up again over the first ten months in 2015. Russian production dropped 4% because of sluggish demand at home and in Europe.
Hopes of a shale gas boom in Europe are fading, with major energy companies gradually withdrawing from projects in central and western Europe. The pace of uncon-ventional gas development in China remains uncertain. Iran’s appearance on the gas market after sanctions are lifted (ex-pected in H1 2016) is unlikely to upset the market in the short to medium term but could reconfigure the regional market within the next 2-3 years.
Over the longer term, shale gas will contribute heavily to the increase in world gas production: up to 60% according to the IEA’s forecasts within the New Policies scenario (WEO 2015), lifting its share in total production to a third. By then, the main producer countries will be the USA (almost half), China, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Mexico.
Natural gas, bcm
Actual Forecasts
Natural gas production Net exports from exporting countries Production 2040
2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 Change IEA New Policies scenario
bcm% Share in world total
bcm% Share in world total
2000-2014
2013-2014 bcm bcm 2000-
20142013-2014 bcm Share in
world total
Europe 319 13% 265 8% -17% -6% 180 3%European Union 264 11% 154 4% -42% -11% 92 2%
Norway 53 2% 108 3% 103% -1% 49 103 112% 0.2% 84 2%North America 726 29% 892 25% 23% 6% -1 21 1221 24%
USA 544 22% 732 21% 34% 6% 863 17%Latin America 138 6% 223 6% 62% -1% 311 6%
Brazil 7 0% 24 1% 234% 13% 92 2%Asia 251 10% 433 12% 73% 2% 790 15%
China 27 1% 127 4% 365% 8% 356 7%India 28 1% 32 1% 15% -7% 89 2%
Pacific 39 2% 69 2% 76% 2% 10 25 140% -6% n.d n.dAustralia 33 1% 63 2% 93% 2% 10 25 140% -6% 175 3%
CIS 709 28% 857 24% 21% -2% 138 209 52% -4% 1150 22%Russia 573 23% 643 18% 12% -4% 178 179 1% -12% 717 14%
Middle East 200 8% 572 16% 187% 3% 22 119 436% -7% 900 17%Iran 59 2% 174 5% 196% 9% -3 0 -107% -94% 290 6%
Qatar 24 1% 164 5% 569% -1% 14 121 771% -0.2% 235 5%Saudi Arabia 38 2% 87 2% 131% 4% 0 0 - - 143 3%
Africa 124 5% 193 6% 55% -3% 68 77 14% -4.8% 428 8%Algeria 82 3% 80 2% -2% -2% 62 45 -28% -6% 116 2%
World 2,506 100% 3,505 100% 40% 1% 5,160 100%NB: In the IEA 2020 forecasts, unconventional gas represent 24% of total production.
Sources: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Forecasts: Based on data from World Energy Outlook 2015© OECD/IEA, 2015; modified by ENGIE
NATURAL GAS
81
Natural gas: consumption and imports
The gas market is relatively new. It deve-loped from the 1970s onwards and now represents 21% of world energy consumption. It is second only to oil in OECD countries (26% of the energy mix)
and is preceded by coal in non-OECD countries (20% of the energy mix).
Today’s gas market is very mixed. Demand has been waning in Europe since 2008 and is now closing on its pre-2000 levels. Conversely, the low cost production of shale gas triggered renewed expansion of the US market from 2009 onwards (up 3% per year on average). Asia and the Middle East have been the most dynamic markets over the recent years and are set to remain so.
The gas market remains essentially regional in structure. This regionalisation is enhanced by regional de-mand growth (in North Africa but also in developing countries, China, India, Brazil, and in the Middle East). The Middle East will play an increasingly important part in trade between re-gions, both with Europe and with Asia. Its current position is still modest relative to its reserves (40% of proven reserves but just 16% of world production). Australia will also become a bigger LNG supplier to Asia in the coming years.
Natural gas,bcm
Actual Forecasts
Total natural gas domestic consumption Net imports2040
Consumption 2040
Consumption
2000 2014 Change 2000 2014 ChangeIEA New Policies scenario
WEO 2015
bcm% Share in world
totalbcm
% Share in world
total
2000-2014
2013-2014
bcm bcm2000-2014
2013-2014
bcm% Share in world total
bcm% Share in world total
Europe 507 20% 480 14% -5% -10% 200 218 9% -10% 496 13% 528 10%European Union 483 19% 421 12% -13% -11% 230 266 16% -10% 452 12% 466 9%
Norway 4 0% 4 0% 8% -13%North America 753 30% 867 25% 15% 2% 1,001 26% 1,125 22%
USA 661 26% 757 22% 14% 3% 100 34 -66% -9% 802 21% 851 16%Latin America 136 5% 243 7% 79% 3% -2 20 -1,264% 65% 172 4% 279 5%
Brazil 9 0% 41 1% 344% 11% 2 18 726% 8% 37 1% 78 2%Asia 285 11% 647 18% 127% 2% 30 207 586% 3% 654 17% 1,202 23%
China 25 1% 181 5% 637% 9% -2 54 11% 315 8% 592 11%India 28 1% 47 1% 70% -5% 0 16 -2% 68 2% 174 3%
Pacific 29 1% 44 1% 53% 7%Australia 23 1% 39 1% 73% 7%
CIS 567 23% 642 18% 13% -1% 676 18% 756 15%Russia 391 16% 462 13% 18% -1% 446 12% 465 9%
Middle East 178 7% 466 13% 162% 8% 494 13% 738 14%Iran 62 2% 174 5% 180% 12%
Qatar 11 0% 44 1% 311% -2%Saudi Arabia 38 2% 87 2% 131% 4%
Africa 57 2% 116 3% 103% -1% 144 4% 285 6%Algeria 20 1% 35 1% 79% 4%
World 2,511 100% 3,505 100% 40% 0.4% 3,849 100% 5,160 100%Sources: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Forecasts: Based on data from World Energy Outlook 2015© OECD/IEA, 2015; modified by ENGIE
NATURAL GAS
82
Natural gas: primary consumption distribution
The mature markets – the CIS, North America and Europe – still account for 58% of world gas consumption. But Asia is becoming
increasingly important, with a market share rising from 14% to 20% between 2000 and 2014 even though gas represents just 10% of its energy mix.
The breakdown of gas consumption between the various sectors varies widely between countries. The growing proportion of gas used for heating renders consumption highly dependent on the weather
Source: Cedigaz, BP Statistical Review (2015)Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (July 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy
& CO2 Data (July 2015)
PRIMARY CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS BY REGION TOTAL 2014: 3,505 BCM (2,894 MTOE)
WORLD PRIMARY CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS BY SECTOR TOTAL 2014: 3,505 BCM
EU NATURAL GAS PRIMARY CONSUMPTION BROKEN DOWN BY SECTOR – TOTAL 2014: 421 BCM
ANNUAL GAS CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (TOE)
0-0.5
0.5-1.0
1.0-1.5
1.5-2.0
>2.0
Africa116 bcm(96 Mtoe)3%
Middle East466 bcm
(380 Mtoe) 13%
Asia-Pacific692 bcm
(569 Mtoe) 20%
CIS642 bcm
(535 Mtoe) 18%
North America867 bcm
(710 Mtoe) 25%
Europe480 bcm
(394 Mtoe) 14%
Latin America243 bcm(209 Mtoe)7%
Energy sector (power stations, heat, LNG facilities)
Industry
Transport
Residential/services/agriculture
Non-energy uses
21%
1%
0,4%
18%
53%
6%
42%
21%
33%
4%
NATURAL GAS
83
Natural gas: final consumption by sector
Total consumption2014
Power stations Residential Services Agriculture Industry Transport Non-energy uses Total final consumption
Primary consumption (for reference)
bcm Change 2013/2014 bcm Change
2013/2014 bcm Change 2013/2014 bcm Change
2013/2014 bcm Change 2013/2014 bcm Change
2013/2014 bcm Change 2013/2014 bcm Change
2013/2014 bcm Change 2013/2014
Europe 132 -4% 128 -13% 55 -13% 5 -13% 102 -9% 1.9 -8.4% 16 -9% 308 -12% 480 -10%
European Union 106 -7% 118 -14% 51 -14% 5 -14% 90 -10% 1.7 -9.5% 15 -10% 281 -12% 421 -11%
Norway 0.4 3% 0 -38% 0.01 -38% 0.01 -38% 0.3 0% 0.1 3.8% 1 10% 1 4% 4 -13%
North America 266 -1% 160 4% 110 4% 2.8 3% 165 3% 0.9 -2.7% 20 2% 460 3% 867 2%
USA 249 -1% 143 4% 97 4% 0 4% 133 4% 0.8 -2.9% 16 3% 392 4% 757 3%
Latin America 95 6% 15 -1% 3 -1% 0 -1% 52 2% 7.1 6.6% 19 3% 96 2% 243 3%
Brazil 18 15% 0.4 11% 0.3 11% 0 11% 12 11% 2.0 10.7% 1 11% 16 11% 41 11%
Asia 276 1% 72 4% 37 4% 0.3 4% 110 3% 27.1 5.8% 55 3% 302 3% 647 2%
China 30 16% 36 9% 11 9% 0 9% 38 9% 15.9 8.6% 20 9% 121 9% 181 9%
India 15 -8% 3 -5% 0 - 0.2 -5% 9 -5% 1.7 -5.4% 13 -5% 27 -5% 47 -5%
Pacific 17 4% 4 6% 1 3% 0.03 -21% 11 10% 0.2 6.5% 2 31% 19 11% 44 7%
Australia 15 7% 4 7% 1 7% 0 7% 9 7% 0.1 6.8% 1 7% 16 7% 39 7%
CIS 261 0% 77 -3% 15 -3% 1.3 -3% 60 -2% 0.7 -4.5% 46 -2% 200 -2% 642 -1%
Russia 205 0% 39 -1% 3 -1% 0.7 -1% 41 -1% 0.1 -0.5% 38 -1% 121 -1% 462 -1%
Middle East 181 7% 46 12% 7 12% 0.9 12% 99 6% 7.9 11.9% 56 2% 217 6% 466 8%
Iran 45 8% 46 12% 7 12% 0.9 12% 40 12% 7.9 11.9% 13 12% 115 12% 174 12%
Qatar 10 12% 0 - 0 - 0 - 5 -2% 0 - 3 -2% 8 -2% 44 -2%
Saudi Arabia 49 8% 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 35 -2% 35 -2% 87 4%
Africa 63 3% 8 3% 0.2 3% 0.05 3% 19 1% 0.5 -6.5% 8 -3% 37 1% 116 -1%
Algeria 16 7% 7 4% 0 4% 0 4% 4 4% 0 - 2 4% 14 4% 35 4%
World 1,292 1.3% 510 -1.5% 229 -1.1% 10 -5.5% 617 0.8% 46 5.8% 223 0.6% 1639 -0.2% 3505 0.4%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
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84
Natural gas: consumption forecasts for 2040
Forecasts 2040Source: IEA WEO 2015
2013 consumption 2040 consumptionScenario IEA NPS
Primaryconsumption
Electricity sector consumption
Final consumption
Primary consumption
Electricity sector consumption
Final consumption
Mtoe Mtoe Mtoe MtoeAAGR
2013-2040Mtoe
AAGR2013-2040
MtoeAAGR
2013-2040
Europe OECD 421 118 277 434 0.1% 161 1.2% 254 -0.3%
o/w UE28 387 102 264 382 0.0% 134 1.0% 234 -0.4%
America OECD 762 255 396 930 0.7% 323 0.9% 448 0.5%
o/w USA 610 207 325 699 0.5% 250 0.7% 359 0.4%
Latin America 133 45 61 234 2.1% 72 1.8% 124 2.7%
o/w Brazil 32 13 13 66 2.7% 20 1.6% 32 3.4%
Asia Oceania OECD 189 110 74 186 -0.1% 76 -1.4% 89 0.7%
Asia Non-OECD 378 138 180 958 3.5% 372 3.7% 556 4.3%
o/w China 142 27 91 456 4.4% 158 6.8% 305 4.6%
o/w India 45 14 25 149 4.5% 69 6.1% 71 3.9%
Eurasia Eastern Europe
569 316 196 624 0.3% 293 -0.3% 256 1.0%
o/w Russia 395 253 114 382 -0.1% 212 -0.7% 140 0.8%
Middle East 349 139 160 613 2.1% 257 2.3% 283 2.1%
Africa 99 51 29 235 3.3% 126 3.4% 69 3.3%
World 2,901 1,172 1,372 4,239 1.4% 1,681 1.3% 2,105 1.6%
Source: World Energy Outlook 2015© OECD/IEA, 2015
The IEA’s 2015 forecasts confirm the im-portance of gas in the energy mix out to 2040 and growing consumption worldwide: accor-ding to the New Policies scenario, the share of gas
will rise 1.4% over the period, lifting its contribution to 24% by 2040; under the 2 degrees scenario (450), its share would increase by less (by 0.5%, to 22%) while those for other fossil fuels recede.
These forecasts are slightly lower than those published last year. The IEA has taken account of progress on energy efficiency, weaker demand for electricity in OECD countries and competition from renewable energies driven by techno-logical innovation.
China and the Middle East will be the two growth areas for natural gas demand, outpacing Europe. Euro-pean consumption peaked in 2010, according to the IEA. Demand in North America will strengthen further, boosted by domestic production.
NATURAL GAS
85
Gas world trade flows (pipeline gas and LNG)
MAIN NATURAL GAS TRADE FLOWS IN 2014 (BCM) International trade flows via pipeline accounted for 69% of all international natural gas trade in 2014. Over a quar-
ter (27%) of exports via pipeline came from Russia, although the weakening of its main customer – Europe – cut its exports 11% in 2014 (see trade flows next page).
The LNG market has expanded rapidly over the last decade and account for 31% of world trade flows today. But vo-lumes suffered from slower demand growth in Asia and Europe over two years and were unchanged in 2014. Europe’s LNG imports dipped another 3% in 2014, which was far less than the 27% plunge recorded in 2013.
NB: this map only shows the most important flows. Source: Cedigaz (published in the BP Statistical Review, 2015)
US
Canada
Mexico
S. & Cent. America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
Pipeline gas
LNG
3.1
5.8
1.9
3.46.5
35.7 11.5
27.2
13.2
7.7
8.5
23.7
10.5
4.1 255.2
347.5
74.6 21.8
20.5
39.8
120.8
25.5
11.1
26.9 24.2
14.2 6.528.3
20.1
9.7
6.65.7
NATURAL GAS
86
Natural gas and LNG world trade flows
With the top five LNG im-porters, Asia is driving the world LNG market. In 2014, Japan, South Korea, China, In-
dia and Taiwan imported 72% of total LNG volumes, or 175 million tonnes. Japan re-ported continued growth, but less than in 2013. The weight of imports in the Japanese trade balance, enhanced by the yen’s deva-luation, forced the government to shift the energy mix towards other sources.
Qatar remains Asia’s main LNG sup-plier, with over 58% of its production being exported to the region. This market was not as attractive in 2014 as it had been previously, however. Sales to China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan eased 3%, but increased 11% to In-dia. Qatar’s exports to Europe contracted again (-2%). Overall, its LNG production was unchanged between 2013 and 2014.
Europe’s re-exports rose in 2014 (from 1.9 Mt/yr to 6 Mt/yr) to”premium” Latin American and Asian markets. Because of the prospect of lower regasification volumes, European terminal operators have modified their installations to be able to re-export
bcm Via pipeline Via tanker Total Balance
Exporting countries Importing countries Exporting countries Importing countries Exporting countries Importing countries Net importatersNet exporters
2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 Change 2013 2014 ChangeNorth America 123 116 -6% 123 116 -6% 0 0 13 13 0% 123 117 -5% 137 130 -5% -13 -13 -2%
o/w Canada 79 75 -5% 26 22 -16% 0 - 1 1 -49% 79 75 -5% 27 22 -17% 52 52 1%o/w USA 44 42 -6% 79 75 -5% 0 3 2 -40% 44 42 -5% 82 76 -7% -37 -34 -8%
Latin America 19 19 -2% 19 19 -2% 23 23 -1% 15 15 -2% 42 41 -2% 34 34 -2% 8 8 0%
o/w Argentina 0 0 0% 5 6 5% - - 6 6 -7% 0 0 0% 12 12 -1% -12 -12 -1%o/w Brazil - - 12 12 4% 5 5 7% 17 17 4% -17 -17 4%
Europe 203 202 0% 404 382 -5% 4 5 19% 45 43 -3% 207 207 0% 449 425 -5% -242 -218 -10%o/w Germany 14 21 51% 96 93 -4% - -
o/w Netherlands
60 51 -14% 15 16 9% 0 0 2% 60 51 -14% 15 17 9% 44 34 -22%
o/w Norway 100 98 -2% 4 5 19% 104 103 -1% 104 103 -1%CIS 276 253 -8% 85 74 -13% 14 14 1% - - 290 267 -8% 85 74 -13% 204 193 -5%
o/w Russia 205 179 -13% 28 25 -11% 14 14 1% - - 219 193 -12% 28 25 -11% 191 168 -12%o/w Turkmenistan 41 46 11% - - 41 46 11% 41 46 11%Africa 42 37 -12% 7 8 9% 45 46 1% - - 87 83 -5% 7 8 9% 80 75 -6%
o/w Algeria 31 26 -17% 15 16 12% 46 42 -8% 46 42 -8%o/w Egypte 1 0 -75% 4 0 -89% 5 1 -85% 5 1 -85%o/w Nigeria 1 1 0% 21 24 13% 22 25 13% 22 25 13%
Middle East 35 36 2% 32 36 11% 131 127 -2% 4 5 25% 165 163 -2% 37 41 12% 129 122 -6%o/w Abu-Dhabi 4 4 4% 9 9 1% 7 8 10% - - 11 12 8% 9 9 1% 2 2 49%
o/w Iran 10 10 3% 6 10 68% - - - - 10 10 3% 6 10 68% 4 -0 -102%o/w Irak
o/w Qatar 20 20 1% 103 100 -2% 123 120 -2% 123 120 -2%Asia/Oceania 27 31 15% 54 60 10% 94 98 4% 233 236 1% 121 129 7% 287 295 3% -166 -166 0%
o/w Australia - - 6 6 -2% 30 31 5% - - 30 31 5% 6 6 -2% 23 25 7%o/w China 27 31 15% 24 26 10% - - 51 58 13% -51 -58 13%
o/w Indonesia 10 10 8% - - 22 21 -3% 32 32 0% 32 32 0%o/w Japan - - 116 118 1% 116 118 1% -116 -118 1%
o/w Malaysia 2 2 -20% 1 2 101% 33 33 0% 2 2 0% 35 35 -1% 3 5 38% 32 30 -5%World 725 694 -4% 725 694 -4% 310 313 0,0 310 313 1% 1,035 1,007 -3% 1,035 1,007 -3%
Source: Cedigaz (2015)
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87
LNG: liquefaction and regasification capacity
Regasification capacity (Mt/yr)
2013 2014
Atlantic basin
Argentina 7.2 7.2
Belgium 6.7 6.7
Brazil 5.6 11.0
Canada 7.6 7.6
Spain 44.6 44.6
USA 136.3 136.3
France 17.6 17.6
Greece 3.9 3.9
Italy 11.3 11.3
Mexico 16.9 16.9
Netherlands 8.9 8.9
Portugal 5.9 5.9
UK 39.0 39.0
Turkey 8.8 8.8
Other 2.3 5.5
Total Atlantic basin 322.5 331.1
Regasification capacity (Mt/yr)
2013 2014
Pacific basin
Chile 4.2 4.2
China 31.8 37.0
North Korea 89.7 89.7
India 25.0 25.0
Japan 191.4 193.7
Taiwan 14.0 14.0
Thailand 5.0 5.0
Other 10.3 15.5
Total Pacific basin 371.3 384.1
Middle East basin
UAE 3.6 3.6
Kuwait 3.8 3.8
Israel 1.9 1.9Total Middle East basin
9.3 9.3
World 703.1 724.4
Liquefaction: the nominal capacity of all liquefaction plants (42 units) totalled 305 Mt/yr in 2014, compared with world LNG demand of 244 Mt/yr. Qatar is the world top LNG produ-cer, exporting 79 Mt in 2014, or 32% of the market. In 2014, 15 Mt/yr in capacity were added in Oceania (Papua New Guinea 2 x 3.5 Mt/yr) and in Australia, with the first liquefaction train of the Queensland Curtis project (2 x 4 Mt/yr). US LNG exports will start in 2015-2016 with the first Sabine Pass liquefaction train (4.5 Mt/yr) constructed by Cheniere. Volumes will then be enhanced in 2016-18 by the next three Sabine Pass trains (13.5 Mt/yr), and the Cameron, Freeport and Cove Point project trains (4 Mt/yr, 4.4 Mt/yr and 5.3 Mt/yr respectively). By 2020,
with the second Cheniere project (Corpus Christi) commencing operations, the US additional liquefaction capacity will have risen by 60 Mt/yr.
Regasification: the overall capacity of LNG terminals (109 units) amounted to 724 Mt/yr in 2014, of which half is located in the Pacific basin. The gap between regasification capacity and ef-fective LNG demand stems from the seasonality of demand in Asia (a 52% average utilisation rate) and lower demand in Europe (a 22% average utilisation rate in 2014). Despite lower LNG imports in Europe and in order to diversify its supply sources, Lithuania inaugurated in 2014 its first terminal, the FSRU Klaidepa LNG (1 Mt/yr).
Liquefaction capacity (Mt/yr) 2013 2014
Atlantic basinAfrica
Atlantic basin 23.8 28.5Angola 5.2 5.2Egypte 12.2 12.2
Guinée Equatoriale 3.7 3.7Libya 0.6 0.6
Nigeria 21.8 21.8Total Africa 67.3 72.0Europe
Norway 4.3 4.3Total Europe 4.3 4.3America
Trinidad and Tobago 14.8 14.8Total America 14.8 14.8Total Atlantic basin 86.4 91.1Pacific basinMiddle East
UAE 5.5 5.5Oman 10.8 10.8
Liquefaction capacity (Mt/yr) 2013 2014
Qatar 77.1 77.1Yemen 6.7 6.7
Total Middle East 100.1 100.1America
Peru 4.4 4.4USA 0.0 1.5
Total America 4.4 5.9Asia-Pacific
Australia 24.3 28.6Brunei 7.2 7.2
Indonesia 36.4 29.7Malaysia 25.7 25.7
Papua New Guinea 0.0 6.9Russie 9.6 9.6
Total Asia-Pacific 103.2 107.7Total Pacific basin 207.7 213.7World 294.1 304.7OPEC 134.0 138.7Non OPEC 160.1 166.1
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (July 2015)
NATURAL GAS
88
Natural gas in Europe: consumption
Natural gas consumption,bcm
Natural gas total* domestic consumption Power station consumption
Final consumption**
R&C consumption***
Industrial consumption****
2000 2013 2014 Change 2014 2014 2014 2014
Share in EU total
Share in EU total
Share in EU total
2000-2013
2012- 2013
Change2013-2014
Change2013-2014
Change2013-2014
Change2013- 2014
Germany 88 18% 93 81 19% -7% -13% 14 -14% 61 -13% 36 -13% 22 -13% 28%
Austria 8 2% 9 8 2% -4% -8% 1 -20% 5 -8% 2 -8% 3 -8% 38%
Belgium 16 3% 17 15 4% -3% -12% 4 -7% 11 -15% 6 -19% 5 -9% 32%
Denmark 5 1% 4 3 1% -34% -14% 1 -36% 2 -3% 1 -3% 1 -3% 22%
Spain 18 4% 30 27 6% 54% -10% 10 -9% 16 -10% 6 -11% 9 -9% 32%
Finland 4 1% 3 3 1% -29% -14% 1 -21% 1 -14% 0 -14% 1 -14% 20%
France 41 9% 45 38 9% -9% -16% 4 -28% 31 -16% 22 -16% 8 -16% 21%
Greece 2 0% 4 3 1% 43% -24% 2 -17% 1 -35% 0 -24% 0 -40% 11%
Hungary 12 2% 9 9 2% -29% -8% 1 -24% 6 -8% 4 -8% 1 -8% 10%
Ireland 4 1% 5 5 1% 13% -4% 2 -6% 2 -1% 1 -1% 1 -1% 19%
Italy 71 15% 70 62 15% -12% -12% 23 -9% 38 -12% 27 -12% 9 -12% 15%
Netherlands 49 10% 47 41 10% -17% -13% 12 -8% 26 -15% 18 -15% 6 -15% 15%
Poland 13 3% 18 18 4% 34% -3% 1 -3% 13 -3% 7 -3% 4 -3% 23%
Portugal 2 0% 4 4 1% 75% -5% 2 -5% 2 -7% 1 -5% 1 -8% 29%
Czech Republic 9 2% 8 8 2% -19% -11% 1 -4% 6 -11% 4 -11% 2 -11% 30%
Romania 17 4% 13 12 3% -31% -7% 3 -3% 7 -7% 3 -7% 3 -7% 22%
Slovakia 7 1% 6 4 1% -44% -31% 0 -24% 3 -31% 2 -31% 1 -31% 20%
UK 103 21% 77 70 17% -32% -9% 19 6% 44 -14% 33 -17% 10 -1% 14%
EU 483 100% 475 421 100% -13% -11% 106 -7% 281 -12% 175 -14% 90 -10% 21%
Turkey 15 45 48 221% 7% 25 13% 21 1% 11 1% 9 1% 20%
Europe 507 532 480 -5% -10% 132 -4% 308 -12% 189 -13% 102 -9% 21%
Gas is in a difficult posi-tion in Europe, caught between the rise of RES, its lack of compe-titiveness compared to coal, low
CO2
prices and the weakness of world en-ergy demand: EU primary gas demand de-clined 11% in 2011, 3% in 2012, 2% in 2013 and -12% in 2014.
The most critical sector is electricity production, where EU gas demand receded 10% in 2011, 17% in 2012, 11 % in 2013 and -12% in 2014.
The economic crisis weighed on indus-trial demand, which stagnated in 2010-2013, before picking up slightly in 2014, thanks to Germany and the Netherlands. Mild weather over the winter translated into lower or un-changed demand in the residential sector.
* Total domestic demand: final demand, power station consumption as well as own final consumption and urban heating consumption, which do not appear in the table.** Final consumption: R&S, Industry and Transport, as well as Non-energy uses (which are not shown in the table).*** R&C: including farm consumption.**** Industry: excluding gas used as raw material (non-energy uses).
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
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89
Natural gas in Europe: 2014 supply
(29 Mtoe)
EU 2014 production
243 bcm 219 Mtoe
EU 2014 primary consumption:
387 bcm348 Mtoe
LNG terminal
LNG terminal in construction
LNG
Supply via pipeline
Algeria 23 bcm – 21 Mtoe Libya 6 bcm – 5 Mtoe
Russia 150 bcm 135 Mtoe
Norway 105 bcm 95 Mtoe
Qatar 25 bcm 18 Mtoe
Nigeria 7 bcm5 Mtoe
Algeria 15 bcm11 Mtoe
Others (Peru, Trinidad & Tobago…)
5 bcm4 Mtoe
NB: BP conversion: 1 bcm = 0.9 Mtoe.
Source: IEA 2015, Cedigaz, 2015; BP Statistical Review 2015
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90
Natural gas in Europe: infrastructures
EUROPEAN LNG INFRASTRUCTURE AND UNDERGROUND STORAGE FACILITIES
Source: GRT Gas: “Plan décennal développement
du réseau de transport de GRT gaz 2015-2024”
(November 2015)
LNG terminal
LNG terminal in construction
Annual regasification capacity in bcm/country
Annual storage capacity in bcm/country
UE total
195
108
Bulgaria
IrlandUK
Denmark
Latvia
Estonia
Sweden
Lithuania
Poland
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Lux.
Czech Republic
Slovakia
HungaryAustria
Slovenia
Italy
Romania
Ukraine
Greece
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
52
5
12
13
25
3
3
4
6
32
17
15
22
12
9
4
62 12
8
Large European infrastructure projectsLNG terminal projects
LNG could return to the forefront of European flows as new lique-faction plants emerge in the Pacific basin, reducing the volumes needed from the Atlantic basin. Some US LNG exports will arrive on the European market from 2018 onwards.
Existing and future regasification capacity in Europe, and notably Dunkirk LNG, will allow for these LNG flows. Other LNG terminal projects, both new facilities and extensions to existing plants, are currently being studied in the Baltic and Adriatic Seas and on Europe’s western and southern coasts.
NATURAL GAS
91
Natural gas: Infrastructure projects
LARGE EUROPEAN PIPELINE PROJECTS
Source: GRT Gas: “Plan décennal développement du réseau de transport de GRTGas 2015-2024” (November 2015)
Bulgaria
Irland
UK
Denmark
Latvia
Estonia
Sweden
Lithuania
Poland
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Lux.Czech
RepublicSlovakia
HungaryAustria
Slovenia
Italy
Romania
Ukraine
Greece
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
Large European infrastructure projects New supply routes by pipeline
Nord Stream has announced its intention to double its current capacity of 55 bcm/year. The two pipelines operating since 2011 and
2012 transport Russian gas 1,220 km to northern Germany via the Baltic Sea. The additional 55 bcm/year capacity is expected to be in service by 2019, provided that the German network is strengthened downstream.
Following the cancellation of the South Stream project that would have carried Russian gas to Austria via Bulgaria by end-2014, various alternative pro-jects have emerged. These include Turkish Stream, which will supply 63 bcm/year from Russia via Turkey and the Black Sea, Eastring from Turkey to Slovakia via Bulgaria and Romania, and Tesla across Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary.
The development of the Southern Corridor is one of the EU priorities. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) will tap Azerbaijan resources, and in the longer term Middle East countries via Turkey (Iraq, Iran, Turkmenistan):
The TAP will link Turkey to Italy via Albania and Greece. 800km long and with a capacity of 10 bcm/yr, it will transport gas from Azerbaijan. Agreed in 2013, it is expected to be in service by 2020.
The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) will cross Turkey upstream and will be operational in 2018/2019.
GALSI is intended to link Algeria with Italy via Sardinia and supply 8 bcm/year, but the investment decision has been deferred several times.
ELECTRICITY
ElectricityPRODUCTION
While fossil fuels still supply two thirds of world electricity, their share has been steadily declining for three years. RES continue to grow, representing 23% of power production in 2014, against 20% five years ago. Solar power is developing vigorously, and catching up with wind power in North America, Europe and China.
CONSUMPTION
Electricity demand weakened in almost every region in 2014, and especially in Europe (–3%). Demand growth slowed dramatically in Asia, from 7% to 3%.Only the Middle East posted unchanged demand growth (5%).
9393
94 Electricity generating capacity
100 Electricity consumption
102 RES capacity
ELECTRICITY
94
Electricity: Generating capacity by power station type – Country detail, 2000 and 2013*
Installed electricity generation capacity, GW
Total capacity
Hydro capacity
Nuclear capacity
Thermal capacity**
Wind capacity
Solar capacity
Geothermal capacity
2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013Europe 804 1,124 203 229 141 125 447 563 12 122 0 83 1 2
European Union 712 985 140 150 138 122 420 512 12 118 0 82 1 1North America 970 1,213 166 177 108 113 690 840 3 68 1 13 3 3
USA 859 1,068 99 101 98 99 656 793 2 60 1 11 3 3Latin America 222 350 123 163 4 4 93 175 0 7 0 0 1 1
Brazil 74 129 61 87 2 2 11 37 0 3 0 0 0 0Asia Pacific 989 2,343 200 451 66 88 717 1,656 2 105 0 40 3 5
China 336 1,298 79 280 2 15 254 910 0 75 0 17 0 0India 115 280 24 40 3 4 87 212 1 21 0 3 0 0
CIS 329 374 64 70 31 37 234 265 0 0 0 1 0 0Russia 211 242 44 47 20 24 147 172 0 0 0 0 0 0
Middle East 120 270 7 15 0 1 113 254 0 0 0 0 0 0Africa 101 169 21 30 2 2 78 135 0 2 0 0 0 0World 3,535 5,843 784 1,135 353 369 2,371 3,887 17 304 1 137 8 11
Detail of installed thermal capacity**, GW
Oil capacity
Gas capacity***
Coal and lignite capacity
Biomass capacity
2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013 2000 2013Europe 83 59 137 260 216 209 10 35
European Union 81 57 130 233 200 188 9 34North America 138 61 197 440 339 322 17 18
USA 130 46 190 427 321 308 15 13Latin America 44 52 35 91 11 16 3 16
Brazil 6 8 1 14 1 3 2 11Asia Pacific 139 126 129 273 444 1,228 6 28
China 20 15 8 39 225 847 0 0India 5 5 10 24 72 176 0 7
CIS 24 25 130 159 78 80 1 1Russia 16 16 88 113 42 42 0 0
Middle East 49 75 59 174 4 5 0 0Africa 13 22 24 67 40 46 0 1World 491 420 711 1,464 1,132 1,905 36 99
** Traditional thermal capacity (fossil fuels and biomass).*** Capacity mothballed for economic reasons is included in installed capacity. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Growth in world electricity generation capacity slowed slightly from 5% in 2012 to 3.8% in 2013. It rose spectacularly in India (up 12.5%) and in China (up 8.6%) and accelerated sharply in the Middle East
(9.3%) and Africa (9.7%), i.e. by almost 3% more in both re-gions than in 2012. These four regions accounted for 80% of additional world capacity in 2013.
Totalling 134 GW, renewable resources posted a record 62% of additional world electricity generation capacity in 2013, up from 46% in 2012. The biggest increases in RES in 2013 were solar power (up 37%), biomass (up 28%) and wind power (up 12%). The Asia-Pacific region accounted for two-thirds of additional RES capacity, of which 90% in hydro power. RES development slowed in North America (an additional 9 GW in 2013, compared with 22 GW in 2012).
Early figures for 2014* show a continuation of these trends, with world wind and solar capacity up 16% and 29%, respec-tively, relative to 2013.
Coal capacity continues to expand, though at a slower pace (by 3% in 2013, compared with 4.5% in 2012). Significant declines were reported in Europe (-4.6%) and in North America (-4%).
The 3.6% expansion in world gas capacity in 2013 stemmed mainly from the Middle East (up 8%) and Africa (up 11%). These two regions combined accounted for 72% of additional gas capacity.
* RES capacity shown on this page and the next care from Enerdata – not all electrical capacity statistics are available for 2014. However, pages 92, 93 and 94 show RES capacity per country for that year published in the BP Statistical Review, June 2015 (BP only publishes RES capacity). These two sources report slightly different numbers (a differential of less than 10% ).
ELECTRICITY
95
Electricity: generating capacity by power station type
Electricity generation capacity, GW
Thermal Nuclear Hydro ENR dontWind, Biomass *, Waste
Total generation capacityCoal and Lignite Natural gas Oil
GW Share in total regional capacity GW Share in total regional
capacity GW Share in total regional capacity GW Share in total regional
capacity GW Share in total regional capacity GW Share in total regional
capacity GW
Europe 2000 216 27% 137 17% 83 10% 141 18% 203 25% 23 3% 804 2013 209 19% 260 23% 59 5% 125 11% 229 20% 241 21% 1,124 2020 168 13% 331 25% 55 4% 110 8% 260 20% 375 29% 1,299
North America 2000 339 35% 197 20% 138 14% 108 11% 166 17% 22 2% 970 2013 322 27% 440 36% 61 5% 113 9% 177 15% 101 8% 1,213 2020 277 21% 510 39% 49 4% 109 8% 185 14% 182 14% 1,313
Latin America 2000 11 5% 35 16% 44 20% 4 2% 123 55% 5 2% 222 2013 16 5% 91 26% 52 15% 4 1% 163 47% 25 7% 350 2020 14 3% 120 28% 51 12% 5 1% 212 49% 32 7% 433
Asia-Pacific 2000 444 45% 129 13% 139 14% 66 7% 200 20% 11 1% 989 2013 1,228 52% 273 12% 126 5% 88 4% 451 19% 178 8% 2,343 2020 1,793 50% 492 14% 130 4% 181 5% 573 16% 392 11% 3,562
CIS 2000 78 24% 130 40% 24 7% 31 10% 64 20% 1 0.19% 329 2013 80 21% 159 43% 25 7% 37 10% 70 19% 2 0.62% 374 2020 69 17% 189 46% 25 6% 38 9% 87 21% 7 2% 414
Middle East 2000 4 4% 59 50% 49 41% 0 0% 7 6% 0 0.001% 120 2013 5 2% 174 64% 75 28% 1 0% 15 6% 1 0.221% 270 2020 4 1% 213 66% 81 25% 1 0% 19 6% 3 1% 321
Africa 2000 40 40% 24 24% 13 13% 2 2% 21 21% 0 0.4% 101 2013 46 27% 67 40% 22 13% 2 1% 30 18% 2 1% 169 2020 56 24% 98 41% 24 10% 2 1% 43 18% 14 6% 237
World 2000 1,132 32% 711 20% 491 14% 353 10% 784 22% 63 2% 3,535 2013 1,905 33% 1,464 25% 420 7% 369 6% 1,135 19% 550 9% 5,843 2020 2,380 31% 1,952 26% 416 5% 446 6% 1,379 18% 1,005 13% 7,578
* Biomass - Thermal capacity. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Forecasts: Enerdata, Balance scenario – POLES model (February 2015)
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Electricity: generating capacity by power station type – Country detail, 2013 and 2014
Electricity production, TWh
Total electricity production
Hydro-electricity production
Nuclear production
Thermal* production
Wind production
Solar production
Geothermal production
Other electricity production
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Europe 3,808 3,732 672 665 901 901 1,886 1,790 246 260 86 98 12 14 4 4
European Union 3,264 3,162 401 406 875 873 1,655 1,526 237 249 85 98 6 6 4 4North America 4,954 4,971 682 661 924 937 3,131 3,129 181 194 13 25 19 20 4 4
USA 4,302 4,330 290 281 822 830 2,985 2,987 169 183 12 25 19 20 4 4Latin America 1,526 1,550 730 717 33 30 738 769 16 24 0 1 10 10 0 0
Brazil 570 584 391 372 15 15 158 186 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0Asia-Pacific 9,711 10,057 1,401 1,552 342 370 7,729 7,860 177 200 33 42 29 31 1 1
China 5,369 5,583 921 1,066 111 131 4,196 4,221 129 146 12 19 0 0 0 0India 1,194 1,296 149 143 34 36 976 1,078 31 34 4 5 0 0 0 0
CIS 1,531 1,522 266 256 258 272 1,005 992 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0Russia 1,062 1,064 188 183 172 181 701 700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Middle East 1,005 1,051 25 26 5 4 975 1,020 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0Africa 741 753 122 129 14 17 599 603 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0World 23,276 23,636 3,897 4,005 2,477 2,530 16,063 16,162 623 682 133 169 73 78 10 9
Detail of thermal electricity production* TWh
Oil-fired thermal production
Gas-fired thermal production
Coal-& lignite-fired thermal production
Biomass-fired thermal production**
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Europe 67 56 620 601 1,017 947 179 183
European Union 65 51 511 476 901 818 175 179North America 43 48 1,216 1,213 1,785 1,776 88 92
USA 36 41 1,149 1,146 1,722 1,717 79 83Latin America 192 195 390 407 97 101 59 65
Brazil 27 43 69 74 21 24 40 45Asia-Pacific 305 268 1,244 1,256 6,048 6,192 131 144
China 7 7 98 114 4,044 4,052 47 48India 23 24 75 69 854 957 24 28
CIS 31 29 658 658 313 301 4 4Russia 28 28 510 509 160 160 3 3
Middle East 332 333 609 654 33 33 0 0Africa 78 79 264 273 255 248 1 1World 1,047 1,008 5,001 5,063 9,548 9,597 462 490
* Traditional thermal capacity (fossil fuels and biomass) – ** Unconventional thermal energy production refers to thermal electricity production from biomass and waste (urban, industrial and animal waste) as well as biofuels.. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
World electricity generation slowed from 2.2% in 2013 to 1.5% in 2014. It decreased 2% in Europe and stagnated in North America
(up 0.3%)
Production from renewable sources reached 23% of total production, but above all it made up two third of the total increase in electricity generation in 2014 (of which 30% in hydro power).
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Electricity: generating capacity by power station type
Electricity production, TWh
Thermal production Nuclear Production
Hydro production RES productIon: Solar, Geothermal,
Wind, Other
Total production
Coal & Lignite Gas Crude oil Biomass, Peat
TWhShare in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Share in total regional production TWh
Europe 2000 1,039 30% 527 15% 192 6% 49 1% 971 28% 628 18% 30 1% 3,438 2014 947 25% 601 16% 56 2% 183 5% 901 24% 665 18% 377 10% 3,732 2020 895 22% 780 19% 76 2% 175 4% 783 19% 720 18% 668 16% 4,097
North America 2000 2,247 48% 668 14% 133 3% 80 2% 871 19% 639 14% 21 0% 4,658 2014 1,776 36% 1,213 24% 48 1% 92 2% 937 19% 661 13% 244 5% 4,971 2020 1,830 34% 1,372 26% 41 1% 128 2% 872 16% 720 13% 404 8% 5,367
Latin America 2000 44 5% 137 14% 169 17% 14 1% 20 2% 583 60% 8 1% 977 2014 101 6% 407 26% 195 13% 65 4% 30 2% 717 46% 35 2% 1,550 2020 85 5% 389 22% 179 10% 57 3% 37 2% 970 55% 42 2% 1,758
Asia-Pacific 2000 2,167 51% 593 14% 385 9% 24 1% 505 12% 537 13% 26 1% 4,236 2014 6,192 62% 1,256 12% 268 3% 144 1% 370 4% 1,552 15% 274 3% 10,057 2020 7,832 58% 1,454 11% 216 2% 149 1% 1,353 10% 1,739 13% 693 5% 13,435
CIS 2000 265 21% 489 39% 57 5% 3 0% 210 17% 226 18% 0 0% 1,250 2014 301 20% 658 43% 29 2% 4 0% 272 18% 256 17% 1 0% 1,522 2020 254 15% 807 48% 22 1% 4 0% 281 17% 315 19% 9 1% 1,692
Middle East 2000 30 6% 246 52% 188 40% 0 0% 0 0% 8 2% 0 0% 472 2014 33 3% 654 62% 333 32% 0 0% 0 0% 26 2% 2 0% 1,051 2020 28 2% 922 74% 260 21% 0 0% 9 1% 29 2% 6 0% 1,254
Africa 2000 207 47% 94 21% 52 12% 1 0% 13 3% 77 17% 1 0% 445 2014 248 33% 273 36% 79 11% 1 0% 17 2% 129 17% 4 1% 753 2020 291 31% 364 38% 64 7% 4 0% 13 1% 184 19% 29 3% 949
World 2000 5,999 39% 2,753 18% 1,177 8% 170 1% 2,591 17% 2,698 17% 86 1% 15,477 2014 9,597 41% 5,063 21% 1,008 4% 490 2% 2,530 11% 4,005 17% 938 4% 23,636 2020 11,215 39% 6,087 21% 857 3% 518 2% 3,348 12% 4,676 16% 1,851 6% 28,553
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Forecasts: Enerdata, Balance scenario – POLES model (February 2015)
World production from coal rose slightly again (up 0.5%) in 2014, mainly because of a 12% increase in India only partly offset by a 7% drop in Europe. In 2014, coal accounted for 62% of total electricity generation in the Asia-Pacific region, and 41% globally.
Electricity production from gas rose 1.2% in 2014, mainly due to the Middle-East (72%), where gas nearly made up all of additional production. In Europe and in North America, electricity production from gas contracted further in 2014, bringing its share down to 15% compared with 37% in 2010.
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Electricity: production by region – long series
Electricity production, TWh 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2013 / 2014 Share of 2014 world total
USA 2,703 3,185 3,517 3,990 4,257 4,331 4,269 4,297 1% 18%
Canada 460 478 551 599 614 582 626 615 -2% 3%
North America 3,257 3,786 4,221 4,794 5,113 5,184 5,184 5,202 0% 22%
Brazil 194 223 276 349 403 516 570 583 2% 2%
South & Central America 410 508 641 802 936 1,133 1,255 1,265 1% 5%
France 344 420 494 541 575 573 568 556 -2% 2%
Germany 523 550 537 577 621 629 633 614 -3% 3%
Russia 962 1,082 862 878 954 1,038 1,059 1,064 0% 5%
UK 298 320 337 377 398 382 359 335 -7% 1%
Europe & Eurasia 4,110 4,583 4,348 4,693 5,127 5,348 5,329 5,242 -2% 22%
Iran 39 58 84 119 170 226 255 271 7% 1%
Saudi Arabia 45 70 100 126 176 240 284 304 7% 1%
Middle East 174 239 340 462 625 864 970 1,017 5% 4%
South Africa 141 165 188 211 245 260 256 253 -1% 1%
Africa 264 318 367 439 561 667 717 729 2% 3%
China 411 621 1,007 1,356 2,500 4,207 5,432 5,650 4% 24%
India 180 284 410 555 690 922 1,103 1,208 10% 5%
Japan 672 841 969 1,058 1,153 1,156 1,088 1,061 -2% 5%
South Korea 63 118 204 290 389 495 517 518 0% 2%
Asia Pacific 1,742 2,429 3,342 4,219 5,972 8,230 97,29 10,081 4% 43%
World 9,956 11,864 13,258 15,409 18,334 21,426 23,184 23,537 2% 100%
OECD 6,563 7,651 8,563 9,747 10,605 10,903 10,806 10,715 -1% 46%
non-OECD 3,393 4,212 4,695 5,662 7,729 10,522 12,378 12,822 4% 54%
European Union 2,333 2,583 2,755 3,050 3,324 3,372 3,264 3,166 -3% 13%
ex USSR 1,544 1,726 1,289 1,267 1,398 1,502 1,547 1,548 0% 7%Source: BP Statistical Review 2015
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Electricity: production forecasts for 2040
Electricity production 2040 forecasts according to three IEA scenarios (WEO 2015)
Production 2013 Production 2040IEA Current Policies Scenario
Production 2040IEA Current Policies Scenario
Production 2040IEA Scenario 450
TWhShare of world total
TWhAAGR
2013-2040Share of world total
TWhAAGR
2013-2040Share of world total
TWhAAGR
2013-2040Share of world total
Europe 3,614 15% 4,514 0,8% 10,5% 4,042 0,4% 10,2% 3,822 0.2% 11%
European Union 3,225 14% 3,829 0,6% 9% 3,408 0,2% 9% 3,291 0.1% 10%
North America 5,304 23% 6,991 1,0% 16% 6,418 0,7% 16% 5,934 0.4% 17%
USA 4,283 18% 5,451 0,9% 13% 4,981 0,6% 13% 4,689 0.3% 14%
Latin America 1,183 5% 2,381 2,6% 6% 2,202 2,3% 6% 1,906 1.8% 6%
Brazil 570 2% 1,194 2,8% 3% 1,096 2,5% 3% 974 2.0% 3%
Asia 7,906 34% 20,179 3,5% 47% 18,132 3,1% 46% 14,950 2.4% 44%
China 5,462 23% 12,496 3,1% 29% 10,626 2,5% 27% 9,120 1.9% 27%
India 1,193 5% 4,490 5,0% 10% 4,124 4,7% 10% 3,292 3.8% 10%
CIS 1,740 7% 2,480 1,3% 6% 2,298 1,0% 6% 2,008 0.5% 6%
Russia 1,058 5% 1,436 1,1% 3% 1,313 0,8% 3% 1,166 0.4% 3%
Middle East 952 4% 2,157 3,1% 5% 1,972 2,7% 5% 1,624 2.0% 5%
Africa 751 3% 2,024 3,7% 5% 2,134 3,9% 5% 1,774 3.2% 5%
World 23,318 100% 43,120 2,3% 100% 39,444 2,0% 100% 33,910 1.4% 100%
Source: World Energy Outlook 2015© OECD/IEA, 2015
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Electricity: total consumption and final consumption
Final consumption 2014
Residential final consumption
Services final consumption
Agriculture final consumption
Industry final consumption
Transport final consumption
Sectors final consumption
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
TWh Change2013-2014
Europe 930 -3.3% 911 -3.0% 62 -2.1% 1,147 -2.3% 66 -3.0% 3,115 -2.8%European Union 799 -3.6% 805 -3.4% 51 -2.8% 955 -3.1% 61 -3.1% 2,670 -3.3%
North America 1,554 0.4% 1,637 0.5% 9 -1.0% 1,019 -2.1% 8 1.6% 4,227 -0.1%USA 1,399 0.6% 1,487 0.7% n.a. n.a. 829 -2.3% 7 2.0% 3,723 0.0%
Latin America 348 4.4% 291 3.7% 44 0.5% 555 -0.5% 5 -0.1% 1,243 1.9%Brazil 132 5.7% 135 7.3% 24 1.4% 204 -2.8% 2 -0.9% 497 2.2%
Asia 1,590 2.1% 1,573 3.0% 305 4.9% 4,601 3.8% 102 5.1% 8,180 3.4%China 693 2.2% 654 6.4% 99 -0.2% 3,100 3.7% 60 7.1% 4,606 3.8%India 219 8.4% 145 8.4% 176 8.4% 440 8.4% 18 8.4% 998 8.4%
Pacific 74 0.3% 76 0.3% 4 5.5% 95 0.3% 4 0.2% 255 0.4%CIS 223 -0.4% 212 -0.1% 47 0.7% 493 0.0% 83 0.0% 1,058 -0.1%
Russia 138 0.4% 162 0.4% 16 0.4% 332 0.4% 67 0.4% 714 0.4%Middle East 372 7.1% 253 6.0% 46 6.2% 197 3.0% 0 7.8% 868 5.8%Africa 194 3.1% 108 -5.5% 26 39.8% 246 -1.4% 6 4.4% 583 0.6%World 5 285 1.0% 5 060 0.9% 543 4.6% 8 352 1.5% 274 1.2% 19 529 1.3%
NB: final consumption of electricity = combined consumption of the residential, services, agricultural, industrial and transport sectors (i.e. excluding the energy sector’s own consumption). Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Please refer to explanations given in the Introduction to this report
Electricity consumption, TWh
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 AAGR Change
1980-2014 2000-2014 2013-2014Europe 1,943 2,518 2,954 3,265 3,381 3,336 3,344 3,320 3,226 2% 1% -3%
European Union 1,756 2,274 2,639 2,903 2,954 2,899 2,896 2,866 2,779 1% 0.4% -3%CIS 1,083 1,417 984 1,086 1,203 1,223 1,251 1,245 1,243 0.4% 2% -0.2%North America 2,407 3,146 4,093 4,368 4,426 4,427 4,363 4,373 4,368 2% 0.5% -0.1%
USA 2,100 2,713 3,590 3,811 3,893 3,883 3,831 3,830 3,830 2% 0.5% 0.01%Latin America 308 507 801 938 1,125 1,178 1,218 1,252 1,275 4% 3% 2%Asia 1,039 1,902 3,345 4,777 6,849 7,341 7,745 8,161 8,439 6% 7% 3%
China 257 534 1,138 2,126 3,626 4,052 4,326 4,656 4,833 9% 11% 4%Japan 520 759 958 993 1,016 955 938 922 903 2% -0.4% -2%
Pacific 103 165 218 241 264 267 265 264 265 3% 1% 0.4%Africa 165 262 379 472 561 586 588 599 602 4% 3% 1%Middle East 85 213 400 528 743 764 802 840 883 7% 6% 5%World 7,133 10,129 13,173 15,675 18,553 19,123 19,576 20,053 20,302 3% 3% 1%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
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Electricity: consumption in Europe, by sector
Electricity consumption,TWh
Total electricity consumption Residential consumption
Services consumption
Industrial consumption
Transport consumption
2000 2013 2014 Change 2014 2014 2014 2014
Share in EU total
Share in EU total
Share in EU total 2000-2014 2013-2014
Share in regional
total
Share in regional
total
Share in regional
total
Share in regional
total
Germany 501 19% 533 19% 516 19% 3% -3% 129 25% 138 27% 215 42% 12 2%
Austria 53 2% 65 2% 64 2% 23% -1% 17 27% 14 21% 28 44% 3 5%
Belgium 79 3% 84 3% 82 3% 3% -2% 19 23% 21 26% 38 46% 1 1%
Denmark 33 1% 32 1% 32 1% -4% -2% 10 31% 10 32% 8 26% 0 1%
Spain 195 7% 237 8% 233 8% 20% -2% 71 31% 80 34% 69 30% 4 2%
Finland 77 3% 81 3% 81 3% 5% -1% 21 26% 19 23% 37 46% 1 1%
France 410 16% 460 16% 430 15% 5% -7% 163 38% 127 30% 103 24% 12 3%
Greece 45 2% 53 2% 51 2% 13% -4% 18 36% 18 35% 11 22% 0 0%
Hungary 31 1% 34 1% 35 1% 13% 2% 11 31% 12 34% 9 26% 1 3%
Irland 20 1% 25 1% 25 1% 22% 1% 8 33% 6 26% 9 38% 0 0%
Italy 279 11% 297 10% 288 10% 3% -3% 63 22% 81 28% 112 39% 10 4%
Netherlands 101 4% 109 4% 107 4% 6% -2% 24 22% 36 34% 33 31% 2 2%
Poland 109 4% 134 5% 135 5% 24% 1% 29 21% 45 33% 46 34% 3 2%
Portugal 39 1% 47 2% 47 2% 20% -1% 13 27% 16 34% 16 34% 0 1%
Czech Republic 52 2% 59 2% 58 2% 10% -2% 14 25% 16 27% 22 39% 2 4%
Romania 41 2% 45 2% 44 2% 6% -2% 12 27% 7 17% 19 43% 1 3%
Slovakia 23 1% 25 1% 24 1% 6% -3% 5 19% 6 26% 11 48% 0 2%
UK 340 13% 324 11% 310 11% -9% -4% 107 35% 97 31% 92 30% 4 1%UE 2,639 100% 2,866 100% 2,779 100% 5% -3% 799 29% 805 29% 955 34% 61 2%Norway 111 117 114 3% -2% 35 31% 24 21% 44 39% 1 1%
Turkey 98 200 207 111% 4% 48 23% 54 26% 96 46% 1 0%Europe 2,954 3,320 3,226 9% -3% 930 29% 911 28% 1147 36% 66 2%
NB: Total electricity consumption: final consumption (residential, services, agriculture, industry, transport) plus energy sector’s own consumption (agriculture and own consumption are not shown separately) Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
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Electricity: RES capacity – wind power – country detail
Installed wind capacity, MW 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013/2014 Part du total World en 2014USA 2,610 9,181 11,635 16,879 25,237 35,159 40,274 47,084 60,208 61,292 66,146 8% 18%
Canada 139 683 1,459 1,845 2,371 3,321 4,011 5,278 6,214 7,813 9,684 24% 3%Mexico 3 3 86 86 332 453 769 1,123 1,512 1,988 2,510 26% 1%
North America 2,752 9,867 13,180 18,810 27,940 38,933 45,054 53,485 67,934 71,093 78,340 10% 21%Argentina 16 31 31 31 33 33 33 112 166 242 295 22% 0%
Brazil 22 29 237 247 341 606 931 1,431 2,507 3,445 6,228 81% 2%Costa Rica 51 79 79 79 104 129 179 192 207 249 299 20% 0%
Other South & Central America 7 54 56 79 153 321 463 930 1,154 1,663 2,841 71% 1%South & Central America 96 193 403 436 631 1,089 1,606 2,665 4,034 5,599 9,663 73% 3%
Austria 77 820 966 983 997 997 1,013 1,082 1,378 1,661 2,072 25% 1%Belgium 19 177 222 297 385 605 955 1,147 1,444 1,720 1,960 14% 1%Bulgaria 0 0 0 41 113 335 488 582 643 650 660 2% 0%
Denmark 2,341 3,087 3,101 3,088 3,159 3,408 3,805 3,927 4,137 4,747 4,778 1% 1%Finland 39 85 89 113 113 117 169 178 268 428 611 43% 0%France 63 775 1,585 2,471 3,671 4,775 5,940 6,811 7,626 8,207 9,143 11% 2%
Germany 6,097 18,390 20,579 22,194 23,826 25,703 27,191 29,071 31,315 34,700 40,500 17% 11%Greece 245 603 749 850 997 1,155 1,323 1,634 1,749 1,865 1,980 6% 1%
Hungary 0 17 60 65 162 229 323 357 357 357 357 0% 0%Irland 122 498 748 807 1,015 1,187 1,449 1,688 1,812 2,100 2,322 11% 1%
Italy 424 1,713 2,118 2,721 3,731 4,845 5,793 6,733 7,998 8,448 8,556 1% 2%Netherlands 473 1,221 1,557 1,745 2,222 2,226 2,241 2,309 2,552 2,714 2,876 6% 1%
Norway 13 275 328 355 385 390 411 487 683 793 841 6% 0%Poland 3 65 170 313 472 849 1,231 1,667 2,547 3,441 3,885 13% 1%
Portugal 111 1,087 1,716 2,150 2,829 3,474 3,837 4,214 4,363 4,557 4,683 3% 1%Romania 0 0 3 15 76 129 470 990 1,913 2,608 2,962 14% 1%
Spain 2,358 10,013 11,595 15,155 16,699 19,160 19,715 21,160 22,722 22,898 22,987 0% 6%Sweden 265 554 571 789 1,024 1,537 2,141 2,904 3,750 4,474 5,524 23% 1%
Turkey 19 20 50 147 364 792 1,320 1,729 2,261 2,760 3,762 36% 1%UK 425 1,336 1,955 2,477 3,406 4,424 5,397 6,458 8,894 11,209 12,809 14% 3%
Other Europe & Eurasia 39 160 246 324 338 565 885 1,082 1,557 1,809 2,078 15% 1%Europe & Eurasia 13,133 40,897 48,408 57,100 65,983 76,902 86,096 96,210 109,969 122,145 135,346 11% 36%
Iran 9 21 48 74 84 92 90 91 91 131 131 0% 0%Other Middle East 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 19 19 26 37% 0%
Middle East 18 30 57 83 93 101 101 104 110 150 157 5% 0%Egypt 69 180 231 310 384 552 552 552 552 634 694 9% 0%
Morocco 54 64 122 124 206 254 263 292 394 495 795 61% 0%South Africa 0 3 3 3 8 8 10 10 10 10 570 5,600% 0%
Tunisie 11 28 28 28 62 160 247 277 277 305 305 0% 0%Others Africa 3 3 2 4 44 41 41 115 208 498 514 3% 0%
Africa 137 278 386 469 704 1015 1,113 1,246 1,441 1,942 2,878 48% 1%Australia 30 717 796 972 1,587 1886 2,084 2,476 2,834 3,489 4,056 16% 1%
China 352 1,264 2,588 5,875 12,121 25,,853 44,781 62,412 75,324 91,413 114,609 25% 31%India 1,220 4,430 6,270 7,845 9,655 10,926 13,065 16,179 18,420 20,150 22,465 11% 6%
Japan 142 1,159 1,457 1,681 2,033 2,208 2,429 2,595 2,673 2,722 2,840 4% 1%New Zealand 35 167 170 321 325 467 495 603 603 603 603 0% 0%South Korea 6 89 194 235 311 311 342 370 446 506 553 9% 0%
Taiwan 3 24 102 186 250 374 476 523 571 614 633 3% 0%Thailand 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 112 223 223 0% 0%
Other Asia Pacific 10 72 78 78 164 74 93 113 118 123 123 0% 0%Asia Pacific 1,798 7,922 11,655 17,193 26,446 42,099 63,766 85,287 101,158 120,015 146,577 22% 39%World 17,934 59,186 74,089 94,091 121,797 160,139 197,736 238,997 284,646 320,944 372,961 16% 100%
Source: Navigant Consulting, Global Wind Energy et sources nationales (publié dans BP Statistical Review 2015)
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Electricity: RES capacity – photovoltaic power – country detail
Installed solar capacity, MW
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013/2014 Share of world total in 2014
USA 19 190 295 455 753 1,188 2,040 3,959 7,328 12,079 18,280 51% 10%Canada 7 17 21 26 33 95 281 558 766 1,211 1,710 41% 1%Mexico 14 19 20 21 22 25 31 40 52 112 176 57% 0%
North America 40 226 335 502 808 1,308 2,352 4,557 8,146 13,402 20,166 50% 11%Austria 5 24 26 29 32 53 96 187 363 626 766 22% 0%
Belgium 0 4 4 24 108 649 1,067 2,088 2,772 3,009 3,074 2% 2%Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 1 7 32 167 1,010 1,020 1,022 0% 1%
Czech Republic 0 0 1 4 65 463 1,953 1,971 2,087 2,132 2,134 0% 1%Denmark 2 3 3 3 3 5 7 17 408 563 603 7% 0%
Finland 0 2 3 3 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 0% 0%France 11 26 37 75 179 369 1,204 2,974 4,090 4,733 5,660 20% 3%
Germany 76 2,056 2,899 4,170 6,120 10,566 17,900 25400 33,000 36,300 38,200 5% 21%Greece 0 5 7 9 20 56 206 624 1536 2,579 2,595 1% 1%
Italy 19 38 50 120 458 1,181 3,502 12,807 16,454 18,074 18,460 2% 10%Netherlands 9 45 48 49 53 64 85 143 363 737 1,098 49% 1%
Norway 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 23% 0%Portugal 1 2 4 15 56 99 135 169 228 281 391 39% 0%
Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 49 1,022 1,293 26% 1%Slovakia 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 487 543 588 590 0% 0%
Spain 2 49 148 705 3,463 3,523 4,350 4,897 5,216 5,333 5,358 0% 3%Sweden 3 4 4 5 5 9 12 16 24 43 79 83% 0%
Switzerland 15 27 30 36 48 74 111 211 437 756 1,076 42% 1%Turkey 0 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 12 18 58 228% 0%
UK 2 11 14 18 24 27 95 994 1,747 2,780 5,228 88% 3%Rest of EU-28 0 25 25 25 29 35 50 163 360 536 653 22% 0%
Europe 151 2,330 3,311 5,300 10,680 17,198 30,971 53,343 70,718 81,151 88,360 9% 49%Australia 29 61 70 83 105 188 571 1,377 2,415 3,226 4,136 28% 2%China 19 68 80 100 140 300 800 3,300 6,800 17,639 28,199 60% 16%India 1 18 30 31 71 136 177 481 1,176 2,320 3,062 32% 2%Israel 0 1 1 2 3 24 70 190 236 481 731 52% 0%Japan 330 1,422 1,709 1,919 2,144 2,627 3,618 4,914 6,632 13,599 23,300 71% 13%Malaysia 0 0 6 7 9 11 13 14 25 73 160 118% 0%South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 12 40 68 75 122 966 692% 1%South Korea 4 19 42 87 363 530 656 735 1,030 1475 2,384 62% 1%Rest of the world 701 915 1,043 1,239 1,565 1,799 1,997 1,981 3,712 5,459 6,488 19% 4%Others total 1,085 2,528 3,011 3,504 4,442 5,689 8,022 13,404 22,695 45,597 71,869 58% 40%World total 1,275 5,083 6,658 9,305 15,929 24,194 41,345 71,304 101,560 140,150 180,396 29% 100%
Sources: IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, EPIA, EurObserver and national sources (published in the 2015 BP Statistical Review)
ELECTRICITY
104
Electricity: RES capacity – geothermal power – country detail
Installed geothermal capacity, MW
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013/2014 Share of world total in 2014
Austria 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0.0% 0.0%Australia 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 0.0%China 28 28 28 28 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 0.0% 0.2%Costa Rica 143 163 163 163 163 166 166 208 208 208 208 0.0% 1.7%El Salvador 161 151 195 195 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 0.0% 1.6%Ethiopie 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 0.0% 0.1%France (Guadeloupe) 4 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 0.0% 0.1%Germany 0 0 0 3 3 8 8 8 12 17 27 53.8% 0.2%Guatemala 28 33 33 52 52 52 52 52 52 48 48 0.0% 0.4%Iceland 172 202 312 485 576 576 575 665 665 665 665 0.0% 5.3%Indonesia 590 850 850 980 1,052 1,189 1,193 1,209 1,339 1,339 1,401 4.6% 11.1%Italy 785 791 811 811 811 843 883 883 875 876 916 4.6% 7.3%Japan 535 534 534 532 532 500 502 502 502 503 539 7.2% 4.3%Kenya 45 167 167 170 174 174 209 212 217 253 590 133.7% 4.7%Mexico 843 960 960 960 965 965 965 887 812 834 834 0.0% 6.6%New Zealand 365 425 425 443 585 625 723 723 723 971 971 0.0% 7.7%Nicaragua 70 78 78 88 88 88 88 88 160 160 160 0.0% 1.3%Papua New Guinea 0 6 36 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 0.0% 0.4%Philippines 1,931 1,978 1,978 1,958 1,958 1,953 1,966 1,783 1,848 1,868 1,917 2.6% 15.2%Portugal (Azores) 16 16 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 0.0% 0.2%Russia (Kamchatka) 23 79 79 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 0.0% 0.7%Thailand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%Turkey 20 20 28 28 35 82 94 114 114 226 368 62.6% 2.9%USA 2,828 2,893 2,940 3,037 3,163 3,289 3,308 3,318 3,450 3,524 3,525 0.0% 28.0%World 8,594 9,396 9,655 10,121 10,575 10,928 11,152 11,071 11,397 11,917 12,594 5.7% 100%
Sources: International Geothermal Association, ThinkGeoEnergy, et sources nationales
CO
2
CO2
The stagnation in CO2 emissions in 2015 can be
attributed mainly, though not entirely, to flatlining energy consumption.Improved energy intensity in Europe and China, RES development and the proliferation of environmental measures in the world are also part of the current context.
Ten years after the Kyoto Protocol came into effect, CO
2 emissions have doubled worldwide
and declined only 4% relative to 1990 in signatory countries compared with a 5.2% target.Just a third of emissions were concerned by the Kyoto Protocol. Will COP21 resolve the main issue, which is to get all polluters to bear the burden?
106 Co2 emmissions by sector and region
108 GHG emmissions by region
109 Co2 emmissions to 2035
110 Emmission factors
105
106
CO2
CO
2
CO2: emissions by region
CO2 emissions related to fuel combustion were unchanged in 2014, as energy consumption stalled and the use of coal (the energy source with the greatest emissions) declined slightly.
At a time where emissions reduction is the focal point of international debates, and ten years after the Kyoto Protocol took effect (2005), a sense of perspective is warranted. Since 1990, the year of reference, world emissions have almost doubled (up an average 1.8% per year) as a result of the development of emerging countries. Only Europe (-16%, from energy efficiency measures and RES expansion) and the CIS (-13%, the collapse of the Soviet Union) have reduced emissions. Among Protocol signatories, i.e. excluding the Eastern bloc and
including the USA and Canada, emissions fell 4% between 1990 and 2012, just short of the 5.2% objective.
The 2014 ranking of countries responsible for most emissions shows China in first place (8.2 Gt), with almost as much CO2 released as the European Union and the US combined.
The EU is committed to lower emissions and intends to intensify its efforts in this direction, with a 80% reduction objective for 2050. At the moment it is the developed region emitting the least CO
2 per capita, but the economic crisis and the lack of international consensus are undermining its commitment.
In 2014, CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel combustion originate from the energy sector (47%), industry (22%), the residential & services sector (11%) and transport (20%).
CO2 emissions – Fuel combustion – Mt
CO2 (sector approach)
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 Annual average growth rate Change
1990-2014 2000-2014 2013-2014
Europe 4,325 4,164 4,058 3,906 3,833 3,638 -0.7% -1.0% -5%
European Union 4,028 3,815 3,620 3,440 3,375 3,173 -1% -1% -6%
North America 5,230 6,154 5,960 5,582 5,742 5,795 0.4% -0.4% 1%
USA 4,804 5,630 5,432 5,058 5,203 5,257 0.4% -0.5% 1%
Latin America 852 1,188 1,524 1,630 1,674 1,636 3% 2% -2%
Asia 4,850 6,896 12,194 13,544 13,867 13,934 4% 5% 0.5%
Japan 1,035 1,142 1,094 1,176 1,167 1,143 0.4% 0% -2%
China 2,330 3,229 7,134 8,083 8,268 8,154 5% 7% -1%
India 547 929 1,721 1,923 2,007 2,197 6% 6% 9%
Pacific 294 377 431 430 418 422 2% 1% 1%
CIS 3,487 2,151 2,331 2,433 2,405 2,352 -2% 1% -2%
Russia 2,171 1,491 1,579 1,634 1,612 1,602 -1% 1% -1%
Middle East 577 948 1,581 1,712 1,767 1,814 5% 5% 3%
Africa 527 668 962 1,014 1,038 1,051 3% 3% 1%
World 20,143 22,547 29,041 30,251 30,744 30,640 2% 2% -0.3%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
CO
2
107
CO2: emissions by sector
CO2 emissions from
fuel combustion, MtCO
2
Energy sector CO
2 emissions
Industrial CO
2 emissions
(incl. self-produced)
Residential, services and agricultural CO
2 emissions
Transport CO
2 emissions
Total emissions
Emissions per capita, tCO
2
1990 2014 Change 1990 2014 Change 1990 2014 Change 1990 2014 Change 1990 2014 Change 1990 2014 Change
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
1990/ 2014
2013/ 2014
Europe 1,650 1,386 -16% -6% 1,007 640 -36% -5% 856 665 -22% -9% 811 947 17% 0% 4,325 3,638 -16% -5% 7.7 5.9 -23% -104%
European Union 1,548 1,195 -23% -8% 938 555 -41% -6% 791 575 -27% -10% 751 847 13% 0% 4,028 3,173 -21% -6% 8.4 6.3 -26% -6%
North America 2,279 2,577 13% 0% 782 656 -16% 0% 660 706 7% 3% 1,509 1,856 23% 2% 5,230 5,795 11% 1% 18.9 16.4 -13% 0%
USA 2,135 2,422 13% 0% 696 534 -23% 0% 580 619 7% 3% 1,392 1,682 21% 2% 4,804 5,257 9% 1% 19.2 16.5 -14% 0%
Latin America 235 478 104% -10% 227 400 76% 2% 104 150 44% -1% 287 608 112% 1% 852 1,636 92% -2% 1.9 2.6 37% -3%
Asia 1,622 7,331 352% 2% 1,734 3,783 118% -2% 918 1,113 21% -1% 577 1,708 196% 2% 4,850 13,934 187% 0% 1.7 3.6 113% 0%
Japan 362 501 39% 0% 307 279 -9% -4% 156 153 -2% -5% 210 210 0% -2% 1,035 1,143 10% -2% 8.4 9.0 7% -2%
China 730 4,607 531% 0% 966 2,206 128% -5% 524 604 15% -2% 111 738 563% 3% 2,330 8,154 250% -1% 2.1 6.0 191% -2%
India 234 1,173 401% 11% 164 626 281% 8% 84 166 97% 7% 64 231 262% 5% 547 2,197 302% 9% 0.6 1.7 170% 8%
Pacific 153 222 44% 0% 54 72 33% 5% 15 23 52% 2% 72 105 47% 0% 294 422 43% 1% 11.3 11.2 -1% -1%
CIS 1,938 1,351 -30% -3% 587 462 -21% -2% 626 287 -54% -1% 336 251 -25% -1% 3,487 2,352 -33% -2% 12.5 8.2 -34% -3%
Russia 1,275 975 -24% -1% 299 314 5% 0% 378 135 -64% 2% 219 177 -19% 1% 2,171 1,602 -26% -1% 14.6 11.1 -24% -1%
Middle East 192 720 276% 0% 162 525 224% 6% 76 177 132% 7% 146 391 167% 1% 577 1,814 215% 3% 4.4 7.9 79% 1%
Africa 236 476 102% 1% 131 177 35% 3% 50 115 131% -2% 110 282 156% 2% 527 1,051 99% 1% 0.8 0.9 10% -1%
World 8,305 14,541 75% 0% 4,685 6,716 43% -1% 3,305 3,236 -2% -2% 3,849 6,147 60% 1% 20,143 30,640 52% 0% 3.8 4.3 11% -2%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
108
CO2
CO
2
CO2: GHS emissions by region
The Kyoto Protocol defined six greenhouse gases (GHG): CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH
4 (methane), N
2O (nitrous oxide), HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF
6 (sulphur
hexafluoride). CO2 accounts for 78% of all GHG emissions, and almost 90% of it is related to fuel combustion. Methane accounts for 13% (related mainly to agriculture and to a smaller
extent to fugitive emissions and discharges) and nitrous oxide 6% (related to agriculture). The final three GHGs – HFCs, PFCs and SF6 – account for the remaining 3%. This breakdown
is based on total country GHGs as shown in Appendix 1.
Fossil fuel combustion contributes around 76% of GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF CO2 capture – ** CO2 equivalent refers to the global warming potential (GWP) of a greenhouse gas, calculated as the equivalent CO2 quantity with the same GWP. CO2 lifetime in the atmosphere is estimated around 100 years – *** See Glossary in Appendix 2 for definitions
CO2 emissions,
MtCO2
CO2 emissions – fuel combustion
(sector approach)CO
2 emissions from gas burned at flare
CO2 emissions related to
industrial processes CO
2 emissions related to
wasteCO
2 emissions related to
solvent use LULUCF* Total CO
2 emissions
1990 2012 AAGR 1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR
1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR 1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR
1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR 1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR
1990/2012 1990 2012 AAGR 1990/2012
European Union 4,056 3,467 -0.7% 26 23 -0.5% 284 212 -1.4% 5 3 -2.4% 12 7 -2.6% -269 -316 0.8% 4,113 3,396 -0.9%Belgium 103 95 -0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.4% 8 7 -0.7% 0.3 1 2.8% 0 0 - -1 -1 2.7% 111 101 -0.5%France 349 327 -0.3% 4 3 -1.2% 24 17 -1.7% 2 1 -1.8% 2 1 -3.2% -31 -48 2.1% 351 302 -0.7%
UK 549 458 -0.9% 7 4 -2.6% 16 10 -2.1% 1 0.3 -7.2% 0 0 - 1 -8 -10.9% 573 465 -1.0%Germany 946 743 -1.1% 2 1 -1.4% 60 52 -0.6% 0 0 - 3 1 -2.7% -25 -4 17.4% 986 794 -1.0%
Italy 394 368 -0.3% 3 2 -1.9% 28 17 -2.4% 1 0.2 -5.1% 2 1 -2.3% -5 -20 6.4% 423 368 -0.7%Russia 2,171 1,650 -1.3% 23 37 2.4% 212 156 -1.5% 0 0 - 0 0 - 128 -581 -36.7% 2,534 1,262 -3.3%USA 4,776 4,994 0.2% 38 36 -0.3% 189 145 -1.3% 0 0 - 0 0 - -823 -971 0.8% 4,180 4,204 0.03%Canada 426 515 0.9% 11 15 1.3% 33 45 1.5% 1 0.5 -0.2% 0 0 - -77 24 24.6% 394 600 2.0%Australia 267 399 1.9% 7 8 0.7% 18 20 0.5% 0.1 0.03 -4.2% 0 0 - 124 9 -11.6% 417 437 0.2%Japan 1,037 1,205 0.7% 0.04 0.03 -0.7% 60 41 -1.7% 13 13 -0.2% 0 0 - -67 -75 0.6% 1,043 1,184 0.6%Appendix I 13,707 12,964 -0.3% 110 124 0.6% 901 734 -1.0% 19 16 -0.7% 12 7 -2.6% -1,176 -2,075 2.7% 13,573 11,769 -0.7%
*LULUCF: Land use, land-use change and forestry. Source: Greenhouse gas inventory data - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change / Enerdata, Global Energy&CO2 Data (June 2015)
Other GHG, Mt CO
2 eq**
CH4
N2O HFCs PFCs SF
6
1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012European Union 607 403 533 341 28 86 21 3 11 6
Belgium 10 6 11 7 0 2 2 0.2 2 0.1 France 61 53 93 60 4 17 4 0.4 2 1
UK 105 51 70 36 11 14 1 0.2 1 1 Germany 109 49 86 56 5 9 3 0.2 5 3
Italy 45 36 38 28 0.4 9 2 1 0.3 0.4 Russia 609 521 245 136 28 11 12 2 1 6 USA 636 567 399 410 37 151 21 5 33 8 Canada 76 101 51 54 1 8 7 2 3 0.4 Australia 120 116 20 27 1 8 4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Japan 32 20 30 20 13 23 5 3 13 2 Appendix I 2,329 1,910 1,387 1,069 108 297 75 16 64 24
Source: Greenhouse gas inventory data – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
CO2 EMISSIONS RELATED TO FUEL COMBUSTION IN 2014,
BY FUEL – WORLD TOTAL: 31 220 MTCO2*
Source: Enerdata, Global
Energy & CO2 Data (June 2014)
* Reference approach
Gas naturel21%
Coal45%
Oil34%
CO
2
109
CO2: emissions by region to 2035
CHANGE IN TOTAL CO2 EMISSIONS BY REGION/COUNTRY (INCL. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 2000 – 2035 Without proactive poli-
cies, world CO2 emissions are
set to increase by 15% to 25% by 2035 (according respectively
to the IEA’s New Policies scenario and the Enerdata’s Balance scenario). Increased use of coal, particularly to meet emerging coun-tries’ huge electricity needs, will be a key de-terminant of CO
2 emissions in the future.
These forecasts include current and planned policies, i.e. the natio-nal emissions reduction commitments submitted ahead of COP21 (see the IEA Current Policies scenario published on 10 November 2015).
Solutions designed to reverse this trend and meet the IPCC’s recommen-dations to limit temperature rise to two degrees have been modelled and quan-tified in many environmental scena-rios (e.g. institutional scenarios such as the IEA 450 scenario, the World Energy Council scenario, the OECD scenario or scenarios developed by NGOs such as Greenpeace).
Europe USA India China Middle East Africa South America Rest of the worldSource: Enerdata, Balance scenario - POLES model (February 2015)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Mt C
O2
United States
Europe
Rest of the world
India
China
Middle EastAfrica
Latin America
110
CO2
CO
2
CO2: emission factors
CO2 CONTENT OF CURRENT FUELS
(GR. CO2 EQUIVALENT/KWH – LCV)
CO2 EMISSIONS FROM POWER STATIONS (GRAMME OF CO
2/KWH)
EXCLUDIND LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS
Combustibles Direct emissions Emissions LCA
Coal 342 384
Heavy fuel 281 320
Domestic fuel / Diesel 270 300
Petrol (AVSR, unleaded 95 and 98)
264 309
LPG 230 274
Natural gas 205 234
Wood energy ~0 13
Coal Fioul Gas combined cycle
Gas cogeneration
HWIP * Nuclear Wind Hydro
915 676 404 230 à 380 ** from 860 to 1,548
0 0 0
* HWIP: Household Waste Inceneration Plant.** Emission from gas cogeneration depend on yield and techniques used (turbine or motor).
Source: ADEME 2014
CO2 content is estimated using one of two conventions:
Direct emissions: emissions from energy use solely at the level of the consumer, or
Life Cycle Analysis (LCA): emissions from extraction to final use: extraction, production, transport, distribution, use and even waste management.
FOCUS ON FRANCE
FranceFranceFrance Même si les Gas de schiste sont toujours contestés, il est de plus en plus probable que l’avenir de la production
Gasière mondiale reposera en grande partie sur ces derniers
Focus on France
112 Energy mix
114 The Energy Transition Act
116 Thermal regulations
117 Households’ energy bills
118 Natural gas
122 Electricity
126 Renewable energies
130 CO2 and GHG emissions
111
FOCUS ON FRANCE
112
FranceFrance: energy mix 1973-2014
Mtoe 1973 1990 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Change
2013-2014 2010-2014 (AAGR)
Primary energy production 44 111 137 138 136 138 139 0.9% 0.3%Primary electricity 8 87 118 121 118 119 122 2.4% 0.7%Nuclear 4 82 112 115 111 110 114 3.0% 0.4%Hydro, wind, PV 4 5 7 6 7 8 8 -6.2% 3.9%Thermal renewable and waste 10 11 17 15 16 18 16 -7.5% -1.3%Oil 2 4 2 2 1 1 1 -1.4% -10.9%Natural gas 6 3 1 1 1 0 0 -94.8% -100.0%Coal 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 -4.2% 0.0%Energy independence ratio 24% 49% 51% 53% 53% 53% 56%Imports 160 138 160 160 154 152 146 -4.4% -2.4%o/w coal 10 13 12 10 11 11 9 -21.3% -7.1%o/w crude oil 135 73 64 64 57 56 54 -3.5% -4.1%o/w refined petroleum products 6 27 41 40 43 41 42 0.8% 0.6%o/w natural gas 8 25 42 44 42 42 40 -5.6% -1.2%Exports 15 20 30 35 31 29 32 10.7% 1.6%o/w refined petroleum products 13 15 23 23 20 19 19 -0.2% -4.7%o/w electricity 1 5 4 6 5 5 7 24.8% 10.9%Import balance 145 118 130 125 124 123 114 -7.9% -3.4%Primary energy consumption (sa)Primary electricity* (nuclear, hydro, wind, PV) 8 83 115 117 114 114 117 2.0% 0.3%Oil 122 88 81 83 79 76 77 1.3% -1.1%Gas (natural gas + industrial gas) 13 26 40 40 39 38 36 -4.4% -2.8%Renewable thermal energy and waste 9 11 16 17 17 17 18 3.2% 3.5%Coal 28 19 12 10 11 12 9 -25.7% -6.5%Total 180 228 264 266 260 258 257 -0.3% -0.7%Final energy production (sa)Oil 85 71 65 66 62 61 61 -0.5% -1.8%Primary electricity 13 26 38 37 38 38 37 -3.6% -0.9%Natural gas 9 23 32 33 33 31 31 -0.2% -0.9%Res 9 11 13 14 14 15 16 4.1% 4.0%Coal 18 10 6 5 5 6 6 1.6% -0.9%Total energy 134 141 155 155 152 151 150 -0.7% -0.8%Total non-energy 11 12 12 12 14 13 14 4.2% 3.5%Total final consumption 145 153 167 168 166 165 164 -0.3% -0.5%
* Industrial gas represents 0.47 Mtoe. Source: SOeS - Energy Balance 2014 (published July 2015)
French energy prices fell 0.9% in 2014, reflecting lower prices on international markets, poor econo-mic growth (0.2% after 0.7% in 2013) and unusually mild weather. Temperatures were 1.5° above ave-
rage and their 2013, and 2° to 3° higher during the heating period. 2014 was the warmest year since 1900, including 2011. Heating needs ended up 10 Mtoe lower in 2014 than in 2013.
French primary energy production rose for the second year in a row, climbing 0.9% in 2014 to a new record of 139 Mtoe. Nuclear energy increased 3%, offsetting the contraction in hy-dro power due to the mild winter. Solar and wind production expanded markedly, while production from fossil fuels waned further. French fossil energy production has been virtually nil since the Lacq gas field closed in October 2013.
Primary energy consumption fell 4% in 2014; while this was mainly because of the weather, temperature-adjusted data (-0.3%) reveal a downtrend dating back to 2005. Gas and coal consumption posted the most severe contractions.
These developments boosted France’s energy indepen-dence from 53% in 2013 to 56% in 2014, and reduced energy net imports to 113.5 Mtoe, their lowest level since 1988. The French energy bill shrunk by €11billion, of which €4 billion relates to natural gas.
FOCUS ON FRANCE
113
France: final energy consumption by sector
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORFRANCE, 2014 - MTOE
Final energy consumption contracted in 2014 for the third consecutive year (down 0.3% from 2013 and down 2% from 2011) and reached its lowest level since 1996, at 164 Mtoe.
Final energy demand is trending lower in almost every sector be-cause of France’s deindustrialisation and energy efficiency mea-sures. In 2014, demand contracted 1.2% in the residential and services sector, 0.9% in industry and 1.2% in agriculture (tempera-ture-adjusted data). Demand from the transport sector was largely unchanged in 2014 (up 0.2%) but has generally been trending down since the 2000s. The share of biofuels in this sector is 7%, while that of gas remains negligible. Only non-energy consumption (gas as a raw material) has been expanded strongly in recent years. It gained 4.2% in 2014, returning to its post-crisis 2009 level.
Mtoe 1973 1990 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Change
2013-2014 2010-2014 (AAGR)Residential-Services 56 58 68 69 69 69 68 -1.2% 0.0%Electricity 5 15 26 25 26 26 25 -4.7% -1.0%Natural gas 6 14 21 22 22 21 21 -0.2% 0.0%Oil 33 18 11 12 11 10 10 0.9% -1.6%RES 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 3.3% 4.1%Coal 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 10.2% 0.0%Transport 26 41 49 49 49 49 49 0.2% -0.3%Electricity 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -2.8% 0.0%Oil (excl. bunker oils) 25 40 46 46 45 45 45 -0.3% -0.6%RES 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 10.0% 5.7%Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5% 0.0%Industry (incl. steelmaking) 48 38 33 32 30 29 29 -0.9% -3.6%Electricity 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 -1.0% -1.0%Natural gas 3 9 11 10 10 10 10 -0.1% -2.9%Oil 24 9 5 5 3 2 2 -8.2% -19.0%RES 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0.0% 1.4%Coal 12 8 5 5 5 5 5 -5.6% -0.9%Agriculture 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 -1.2% 1.7%Electricity 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -0.1% 3.4%Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.4% 6.9%Oil 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 -1.1% 0.5%RES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1% 18.9%Total energy 134 141 155 155 152 151 150 -0.7% -0.8%Electricity 13 26 38 37 38 38 37 -3.6% -0.9%Natural gas 9 23 32 33 33 31 31 -0.2% -0.9%Oil 85 71 65 66 62 61 61 -0.5% -1.8%RES 9 11 14 14 14 15 16 4.1% 3.5%Coal 18 10 6 5 5 6 6 1.6% -0.9%Non-energy 11 12 12 12 14 13 14 4.2% 3.5%Total 145 153 167 168 166 165 164 -0.3% -0.5%
Source: SOeS – Energy Balance 2014 (July 2015) – Seasonaly-adjusted data
Residential-Services
Transport Industry (including steelmaking)
Agriculture0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10.3
44.7
2.2
10.7
3
3.5
9.5
10 3.50.8
1.9
1.1
0.3
21.4
25
Electricity Gas Oil Renewable energy Coal
FOCUS ON FRANCE
114
France: the Energy Transition Act
The “Energy transition for green growth” Act was adopted by the French
parliament on 22 July and promulgated on 17 August 2015. It aims to
place France right at the heart of the energy model required to fight
global warming, setting an objective of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions
by 2030 and 75% by 2050 relative to 1990. This ambition translates into
two main lines of action:
Fostering energy savings The cheapest energy being unconsumed energy, the Act makes energy efficiency a top priority and sets the following objectives:
A reduction in final energy consumption of 20% by 2030 and 50% by 2050 relative to 2012
A reduction in fossil fuel consumption of 30% by 2030 relative to 2012
A quadrupling in the price of a tonne of carbon by 2030 via higher taxes on carbon energy sources (carbon tax).
To achieve these ambitions, the Act is built on several pillars.
Particular attention is paid to the building sector, which represents the highest share of French total energy consumption (44%). The renovation and thermal insulation of 500,000 homes from 2017 onwards will be supported by a simplification of urban planning rules and extensive state aid, notably for the poorest households, which will be issued with “energy cheques”. New buildings will have to show exemplary energy efficiency from 2018, and “positive energy” buildings and areas, i.e. producing more energy than they consume, will be encouraged. The development of energy management tools will help to reduce consumption. This could create 75,000 jobs.
The transport sector, largest emitter of GHG (27% in 2011) is also targeted. The enhancement of the replacement premium will expand the number of clean vehicles and the number of recharging stations will rise from 10,000 in 2014 to 7 million by 2030. The development of mobility plans will encourage car pooling within companies.
The combat against waste will notably prohibit single-use plastic bags from 2016 onwards and disposable plastic crockery from 2020. A network of professional dumps for construction and civil engineering will be created by 2017 to promote the circular economy, another source of energy efficiency.
FOCUS ON FRANCE
115
France: the Energy Transition Act
Fostering the development of renewable energies
The diversity of the French geography offers clean energies considerable potential. The associated objectives are therefore ambitious:
The share of RES in French final consumption to rise from 14% in 2014 to 23% by 2020 and 32% in 2030. This objective is broken down by RES sectors:
• the share of heat from renewable sources (biomass, geothermal, etc.) is to reach 38% in 2030. • the share of biofuels is to reach 15% in transport.
The share of electricity generation from renewable sources is to rise from 17% today to 27% by 2020 and 40% by 2030.
• The share of electricity production from nuclear plants is to fall from 74% today to 50% by 2025, while that from wind, solar and hydro plants is to rise. The production of all French power nuclear plants is capped at its current level of 63.2 GW. Citizens are to be better informed about nuclear security, the new Act provides for the dismantling and storage of waste compatible with protection of the environment.
• The Act encourages renewable energies in several ways, such as the widening of the tendering process, the simplification of legal procedures in order to reduce costs and appeal periods for offshore RES, a single licence for wind turbines, a premium for RES power, the upgrading of hydro power plants, etc.
• Biomethane is to be injected into the natural gas network, and up to at least 10% of gas consumption by 2030.
The French government is now working on the regulations it needs for implementation. The aim is to publish these regulations by end-2015.
FOCUS ON FRANCE
116
0 50
Housing stock2008
TR 2005
TR 2012
BEPOSHypothesis
100 150 200 250 300
142
65
15 25 10 60
10 15 10 60
22 22 70
21 44 75
France: thermal regulations
RT 2012 is a new thermal standard for new buildings decided at France’s
so-called Grenelle environment summit. Effective since 1 January 2013,
it replaces RT 2005.
The new regulation has three components that can be adapted to the type
of building, its use, its location and GHG emissions:
The “Cep Max” coefficient sets a 50 kWh/m² limit on conventional primary en-ergy consumption for heating, lighting, domestic hot water, air-conditioning and auxiliary electrical applications. A degree of flexibility amounting to 7.5 kWh/m² is available for multi-family buildings until 1 January 2018. Primary energy consumption in new homes cur-rently averages around 120 kWh/m² per year.
The “Bbio max” coefficient sets a limit on bioclimatic needs for heating, cooling and lighting. It is expressed as a number of points and reflects the need for energy efficiency. It is an average value calculated according to the type of building and replaces the “Ubat” coef-ficient in RT 2005.
Summer comfort. RT 2012 defines two categories of buildings (CE1 and CE2) depending on the presence or otherwise of environmentally friendly air-conditioning systems (the use of an active cooling system carries less of a penalty in CE2 buildings). CE1 or CE2 categorisation depends on the type of occupation and location (local climate, altitude, etc.). The regulation sets a temperature threshold that should not be exceeded on the hottest days of the year (a summer safeguard).
Moreover, every new single-family or multi-family unit must have access to a renewable energy source. RT 2012 defines how these arrangements are to work.
RT 2012 aims to reduce energy consumption in new homes by two-thirds, in line with the “BBC” low-carbon label used for buildings under RT 2005. A new “BEPOS” (positive energy) label is to be introduced in RT 2020.
EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY NEEDS (KWHEP / M2 / YEAR)
BREAKDOWN OF HEATING TYPES CHOSEN FOR NEW HOMES (ALL AREAS, % NUMBER OF HOMES)
Electricity Natural gas Wood District heatingSince 2010, heating modes in new homes have featured a trend inversion between gas and electricity (whole of France).
Source: Bâti Etudes, New Building Observatory, 2015
Heating
Domestic hot water
Cooling / Lighting / Auxiliary
Aplliances / electronics
Source: Ceren, CTSB, Ademe
56.0% 55.4%58.8%
66.4%70.4% 71.2% 72.9%
67.6%
53.1%
44.8%
40.1%
34.8%29.6%
27.7%
31.4% 31.7% 30.1%27.4%
24.7% 24.1%21.3%
24.5%
35.4%
43.1%
42.7%
48.0%
53.9%56.8%
9.9% 8.8% 8.4% 7.0%
0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.6%3.3%
1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9% 3.1% 4.2% 5.3% 5.5% 4.7% 6.4% 5.2% 6.0%
335 357
407
454
488 485
397
346
412
405 388 384
340
100
0
200
300
400
500
600
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FOCUS ON FRANCE
117Electricity
29%
Engine fuels43%
Gas13%
France: household energy bills
BREAKDOWN OF THE AVERAGE FRENCH HOUSEHOLD ENERGY BILL
Source: Bilan énergétique de la France 2014, published by the
Commissariat général au développement durable, july 2015
Lower energy prices and mild weather drove French household energy bills from their 2013 peak to less than € 3,000 in 2014 (-7% or -€ 180 on average).
The saving stemmed from lower fuel prices (€ 60 less per household) and lower heating consumption at home.
Energy represents 5.7% of household effective consumption.
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY ITEM (%)
Source: Ademe
A French household uses on average 2,700 kWh of electricity per year(excl. heating and hot water)
Audio-visual20%
Cold
23%
Washing15%
IT15%
Others14%
Lighting13%Heating
liquid fuels11%
Heating solid fuels2%
Hot water 2%
Share of energy in effective French households’ consumption
Share of energy in French households’ budge
Energy price change from previous year (%) Electricity, gas and other fuels
Energy price change from previous year (%) Oil and lubricantsSources: SOeS calculations based on INSEE figures,
national accounts (2010 base) and SOeS, Real estate accounts 2014
4
6
2
8
0
10
12
14
0
10
-10
20
-20
30
40
50
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2014
FOCUS ON FRANCE
118
France: natural gas supplies
TWh 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change2013-2014
% of total inflows
2010 2012 2013 2014
Total gross inflows (incl. transit)
565 570 547 550 519 -6% 100% 100% 100% 100%
By country of origin Russia 78 74 74 98 62 -37% 14% 14% 18% 12%
Norway 169 185 213 199 198 0% 30% 39% 36% 38%
Netherlands 74 93 82 76 56 -27% 13% 15% 14% 11%
Algeria 71 63 48 59 49 -18% 13% 9% 11% 10%
Egypte 8 10 9 1 0 -100% 1% 2% 0% 0%
Nigeria 2 1 4 0 1 n.d 0% 1% 0% 0%
Qatar 12 32 22 18 10 -46% 2% 4% 3% 2%
Swap* 24 25 39 12 10 -20% 4% 7% 2% 2%
Trinidad and Tobago 4 3 3 0 0 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other and unspecified 123 83 55 86 133 55% 22% 10% 16% 26%
Long term contracts 522 496 462 470 405 -14% 92% 84% 86% 78%
Short term contracts 43 74 86 79 114 44% 8% 16% 14% 22%
Natural gas in gas form 409 410 441 463 449 -3% 72% 80% 84% 87%
Liquid natural gas (LNG) 156 159 107 86 70 -20% 28% 20% 16% 13%
Total outflows (incl. transit) 54 75 69 58 82 41% 10% 13% 11% 16%
Total net inflows (excl. transit and exports)
511 495 478 491 437 -11% 90% 87% 89% 84%
* Mainly gas from Nigeria to Italy, offsetting ENGIE gas supplies to Italy not transiting through France.Source: SOeS, Energy Mix 2014 (July 2015)
FRENCH GAS SUPPLY BY ORIGIN IN 2014 TOTAL: 518,7 TWH
Norway38%
Netherlands11%
Algeria 9%
Qatar 2%
Russia12%
Other & unspecified26%
Swap * 2%
Source: SOeS, Energy Balance 2014 (July 2015)
FOCUS ON FRANCE
119
France: natural gas infrastructure
TIGF: transmission network operator running the Southwest region, one of the three balancing regions within the French gas trans-mission system.
The TIGF network includes 5,000km of pipe-lines (13% of the French large transmission network) and six compressor stations. TIGF also runs two underground storage sites for natural gas, in Lussagnet and Izaute.
GRTGas: transmission network opera-tor running the North and Southeast regions within the French gas transmission system. This 37,200km network, the longest in Eu-rope, is connected to Europe’s third-largest storage capacity, comprising the Storengy 12 bcm/year facility plus three 24 bcm/year LNG terminals.
GrDF: the distribution network opera-tor runs a 200,000 km network supplying 11 million customers – Europe’s most exten-sive network.
GRTGAS NETWORK IN 2015
GRTGAZ
TIGF
Operator Adjacent transport, storage and LNG terminal operators Transport storage interface Network interconnection Transport LGN
terminal interconnection Direction of gas flow Firm capacity (GWh/d)Source: GRTgaz, “Plan décennal développement du réseau de transport de GRTgaz 2015-2024”,
November 2015
FOCUS ON FRANCE
120
France: natural gas consumption and market share by sector
Primary gas consumption dropped shar-ply in 2014 (down 16%) as a direct result of ex-ceptionally high temperatures without any precedent since 1900. The decline in temperature-adjusted terms (-4%) reflects more structural factors, such
as RES competitiveness, improved energy efficiency and the reduced competitiveness of gas-fired combined cycle plants (itself due to low electricity prices, higher natural gas prices, cheap coal imports from the USA and hardly dissuasive CO
2
prices).
The breakdown by sector shows that residential and services users reduced their natural gas consumption by 18% on a real-climate basis and industry by 4% (some industrial sectors are also weather-sensitive). Natural gas demand for electricity generation contracted markedly, and for the third consecutive year (-28% in 2014, -12% in 2013 and -21% in 2012). The use of natural gas in transport progressed slightly (up 1.5%) but remains limited to captive fleets.
Natural gas consumption rebounded in the first half of 2015 as temperatures were relatively low during the heating period (below the seasonal average from January to March), and industrial demand picked up. Consumption in the residential and services sector surged 12% in H1 2015 (but fell 1% in temperature-adjusted terms, continuing its downtrend), while industrial consumption rose 11%. CCGT activity returned to its 2013 level.
Natural gas resources and use, Mtoe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013-2014
Supply
Primary energy production 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -96.6%
Imports 41.9 43.9 42.2 42.3 39.9 -5.6%
Exports -2.5 -5.8 -5.3 -4.5 -6.3 40.8%
Stocks (+ = destocking, - = restocking)
2.3 -1.8 0.8 0.5 -1.2 -330.8%
Total supply 42.3 36.8 38.0 38.6 32.4 -16.0%
Energy sector consumption
Refineries 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 9.8%
Thermal energy production 3.1 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 -5.8%
Intenal energy sector use 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -12.0%
Losses and adjustments 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -94.8%
Total (A) 6.4 5.8 3.9 3.8 2.9 -22.3%
Final energy consumption (temperature-adjusted)
Steelmaking 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.9%
Industry 12.1 9.7 10.0 9.8 9.4 -4.6%
Residential-Services 21.6 22.3 22.3 21.7 21.4 -1.2%
Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 28.0%
Transport (excl. bunkers) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0%
Total (B) 34.5 32.9 33.2 32.3 31.7 -2.0%
Final non-energy consumption
Adjustments C 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 -11.1%
Total primary energy consumption (temperature-adjusted)
Adjusted total (A+B+C) 40.2 40.1 38.5 37.6 35.9 -4.4%
o/w temperature adjustments -2.3 3.3 0.5 -1.1 3.5 420.4%
Cold weather index 1.130 0.812 0.973 1.064 0.8
Source: SOeS, France’s Energy mix 2014 - Seasonaly-adjusted data
Mtoe – 2013 Gas Total Fuels
Gas share
Steelmaking 0.5 5.0 10%Industry 9.4 24.1 39%Residential 15.8 46.3 34%Services 5.6 22.2 25%
Agriculture 0.3 4.7 7%Transport 0.1 48.7 0.2%Non-energy 1.3 13.4 10%Total 33.0 164.5 20%
Source: SOeS, Bilan de l’énergie 2014 (July 2015)
FINAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN FRANCE – TOTAL 2014: 33 MTOE
(temperature-adjusted)
FINAL GAS CONSUMPTION AND MARKET SHARES
Source: SOeS, France’s Energy mix 2014 (July 2015)
Residential48%
Industry28%
Services17%
Steelmaking1%
Agriculture1%
Gas as a raw material 4%
FOCUS ON FRANCE
121
France: regulated gas tariffs
Pricing rules for natural gas supply are laid down in a decree dated 16th May 2013. These so-called regulated tariffs cover all costs borne by ENGIE (ex GDF SUEZ):
• Procurement costs;• Non-procurement costs: > Infrastructure (transport, distribution, storage); >Marketing
On 1 July 2015 the authorities set a new pricing formu-la and a new methodology for non-procurement cost changes. Procurement costs are calculated every month on the basis of a formula reflecting the costs of imported natural gas within ENGIE’s portfolio of long term supply contracts. The CRE (Energy Research Council) checks that the formula is applied properly.The historical pricing terms that have prevailed since December 2010 have changed with the introduction of indexation on the natural gas market. Since July 2015, this indexation has been 77.4% This gradual introduction of market indexation has limited the impact of oil prices on natural gas supply prices. Before this amendment, imported natural gas supply prices were entirely indexed on oil prices. In compliance with European law and from 1 January 2016, customers using over 30 MWh/yr of natural gas, single owners of residential properties using over 150 MWh/yr and associations of co-owners of such buildings will not be entitled to these regulated tariffs. This has already been the case since 2014 for customers connected to the natural gas transport network and those using over 200 MWh/yr.
BREAKDOWN OF ANNUALISED CONSUMPTION, BY TYPE OF CONTRACT, ON 31 MARCH 2015
MARKET LIBERALISATION: MARKET PRICES COVERED 80% OF ANNUALISED GAS CONSUMPTION IN Q1 2015
BREAKDOWN OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY COSTS BILLED TO A CUSTOMER ON ENGIE PUBLIC NETWORK (TAXES EXCLUDED)
Source: ENGIE, BEE, 2015 (excl. taxes)
Regulated tariff offers
Market offers – Incumbent supplier
Market offers – Alternative supplier
Storage 5%
€/$ 2%Marketing16%
Transport 9%
Heavy fuel 0%Domestic heating oil 1%
Natural gas29%
Brent5%
Source: ENGIE, Energy France, 2013
Distribution33%
Source: CRE, Observatoire des marchés
de l’électricité et du gaz naturel,
1st quarter 2015
(451 TWh)All
sites
(145 TWh)Non-residential
sitesTransport
(180 TWh)Non-residential
sitesDistribution
(126 TWh)Residential
sites
0
20
40
60
80
100 5%
45%
50%
66%
16%
18%
20%
33%
47%
34%
66%
june-05
apr.-
06
fev.-0
7
dec.-0
7
oct.-0
8
aug.-0
9
june-10
apr.-
11
fev.-1
2
dec.-1
2
oct.-1
3
aug.-1
4
june-15
0
50
100
150
200
FOCUS ON FRANCE
122
France: electricity generation
Total electricity production was 562 TWh in 2014, down 2% from the previous year. The decline stemmed from lower demand (down 7%, see below) and mainly affected thermal production.
Weather conditions and particularly mild temperatures strongly impacted hydro production (down 9%) and slowed the expansion of wind production, but greatly benefited solar production (up 27%). All in all, RES production declined over 10%.
Nuclear power generation rose 3% in 2014 and accounted for 78% of total production, nearing its 2011 record of 78.6%.
2014 Gross electricity production Generating capacity
TWh% Total
productionChange
2013/2014MW
% total capacity
Change 2013/2014
Nuclear 436 78% 3% 63,130 47% 0%
Traditional thermal 34 6% -37% 31,750 23% -4%
o/w oil 3 1% -11% 13,534 10% 0%
o/w natural gas 13 2% -28% 10,465 8% 0%
o/w coal and lignite 10 2% -58% 6,172 5% -17%
o/w biomass 8 1% -5% 1,579 1% 6%
Hydro 69 12% -9% 25,621 19% -0.1%
Wind 17 3% 6% 9,285 7% 13%
Solar 6 1% 27% 5,624 4% 20%
Tidal 1 0.2% 0% 0 0% -Total 562 100% -2% 135,410 100% 1%
Electricity production, TWh
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nuclear 6 61 314 415 452 429 442 425 424 436
Hydro, Wind & PV 57 71 58 72 58 78 64 84 98 93
Traditional thermal 84 126 49 53 67 62 53 55 54 34
Total 147 258 421 541 576 569 560 564 575 562
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015), Non temperature-adjusted data
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN FRANCETOTAL 2014: 562 TWH
Traditional thermal 6%
Hydro 12%
Wind 3%
Solar 1%
Tidal 0,2%
GROSS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, 1970-2014, TWH
Source: Enerdata, Global
Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Nuclear78%
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Nuclear Hydro, Wind & PV Traditional thermal
FOCUS ON FRANCE
123
France: electricity infrastructure and interconnections
494 billions kWh transported in 2014105,331 km of power lines2,697 substations48 cross-border connections
RTE invests on average €1.5 bn per year (€1.374 in 2014) to prepare the French energy mix change to be implemented by 2020. The closure of coal-fired plants, the
decommissioning plan and the development of so-lar and wind power have lead to a reconfiguration of electricity flows and greater production variabi-lity. Enhanced interconnections between European countries should therefore allow cheaper electricity thanks to complementary production mixes. RTE also looks to improve transits fluidity between re-gions in order to secure electricity supply in each of the French regions.
Source: RTE
2014 Import Export Balance Balance Germany
Balance England
Balance Belgium
Balance Spain
Balance Italy
Balance Switzerland
French export /import balance ,TWh
27.3 92.4 65.1 -5.9 15.1 16.6 3.6 19.3 16.4
Source: RTE data, 2014
EXPORT-IMPORT BALANCE OF FRENCH ELECTRICITY INTERCONNECTIONS 2008-2014 (TWH)
Germany England Belgium Spain Italy Switzerland Total
Power station 400 Kv Single circuit line Double circuit line or more HV DC Interconnetion France /England
TW
h
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - 20
0
20
40
60
80
FOCUS ON FRANCE
124
France: electricity consumption and market share by sector
Electricity de-mand has risen ex-ceptionally quickly in France, tripling
since 1970. Although that growth has now stabilised, electricity is the only form of energy consumption in the country that continues to in-crease. This reflects demand for specific uses, with the de-velopment of amenities such as air conditioning.
Total final electricity consumption decreased by 6% in 2014, mainly due to unusually high temperatures that reduced consumption in the residential and ser-vices sectors (representing two thirds of French final consumption). Tempera-ture-adjusted data show a less severe drop (-3%).
TWh 2014 % dans la conso. totale
Change 2013-2014
Total consumption 430 -7%Energy sector consumption 18 4% -10%Final consumption 413 96% -6%Industry 103 24% -9%Transport 12 3% -7%Residential, Services, Agriculture 298 69% -6%
o/w Residential 163 38% -3%o/w Services and Agriculture 135 31% -9%
TWh 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Industry 72 95 115 135 140 117 118 114 113 103Residential 21 62 97 129 138 162 140 158 167 163Services 19 44 80 107 125 145 139 141 140 127Agriculture 1 2 2 3 7 8 8 8 8 8Transport 6 7 9 12 12 13 12 12 13 12Total 120 209 302 385 423 444 418 434 441 413
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015) – Not seasonally adjusted data
2014, Mtoe Electricity Total énergie PDM Electricity
Final consumption 35 150 24%Industry 9 25 35%Transport 1 43 2%Residential, Services 26 69 37%
o/w Residential 14 43 32%o/w Services 11 21 53%
Non-energy - 13 0%
FINAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ELECTRICITY MARKET SHARES
FINAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
FRANCE ELECTRICITY MIX ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN FRANCETOTAL 2014: 430 TWH
Transport 3% Agriculture
2%
Energy sector 4%
FINAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR, 1970-2014, TWH
Source: Enerdata, Global
Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Not seasonally adjusted data
Residential38%
Industry24%
Services29%
Industry Residential Services Agriculture Transport
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20142010
FOCUS ON FRANCE
125
France: electricity regulated tariffs
Since the liberalisation of the electricity mar-ket, two types of contracts co-exist: market offers, freely proposed and priced by all suppliers, and regulated tariff offers, proposed by the incumbents (EDF and local suppliers) and subject to prices set
by the government.
Within the NOME Act, sites from 36kVA (currently under Tarif Jaune and Tarif Vert) will not be entitled to regulated tariffs from 1 July 2016.
Other customers will still be able to choose regulated tariff offers, for which the decree of 28 October 2014 defined new pricing terms. Regulated electricity tariffs must cover the costs of regulated access to incumbent nuclear electricity, the supply supplement (including the capacity guarantee), procurement and marketing, plus the regular remuneration from supplying electricity.
DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF AN ELECTRICITY BILL, ALL TAX INCLUDED, WITH REGULATED TARIFF:
“TARIF BLEU RÉSIDENTIEL” – AS OF MARCH 31, 2015(2500 kWh to 5000 kWh consumption)
BREAKDOWN OF AN ELECTRICITY BILL, EXCL. TAX, REGULATED TARIFF, AS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2014
BREAKDOWN OF ANNUALIZED CONSUMPTION BY CONTRACT TYPE AS OF MARCH 31, 2015
REGULATED “TARIF BLEU” TO INDIVIDUALS (%) FROM 2006 TO 2014
TURPE: Rate of the use of public electricity networks
CSPE: Constribution to the Public Electricity Service
CTA: Contribution rate routing
TCFE: Tax on the final electricity consumption
Source: CRE
Source: CRE, Observatoire des marchés de l’électricité et du gaz naturel,
1st quarter 2015
Supply TURPE CSPE CTA TCFE VAT
EDF production Commercial costs (incl. margin) Transmission Source: CRE, Observatoire des marchés de l’électricité et du gaz naturel,
1st quarter 2015
Source: CRE, Observatoire des marchés de l’électricité et du gaz naturel,
1st quarter 2015
Regulated tariff offers Market offers – Incumbent supplier Market offers – Alternative suppliers
(144 TWh)Residentials
(423 TWh)All sites
(179 TWh)Large sites
non residentials
(59 TWh)Medium sites non residentials
(41 TWh)Small sites
non residentials
(41 TWh)Small sites
non residentials
38%
31%
31%
92%
6% 2%
83%
5% 12%
92%
8%
68%
15%
17%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Gro
wth
of
“Ta
rifs
ble
us”
(wit
ho
ut
taxe
s)
+1,7 +1,7
+1,1
+2 +2
+5
+2,5
+1,9
+3
15.0% 5.7% 2.3%
11.6%
28.8%
36.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tarif BleuresidentialP˜ 36 kVa
Tarif Bleunon-residential
P˜ 36 kVa
Tarif Jaune 36 kVa <P˜ 1 kV
Tarif Vert1 kV<P
0 €
50 €
100 €
150 €
47.0 € 47.9 € 48.0 € 46.3 €
12.4 € 12.3 € 5.8 €
44.9 € 40.8 € 36.8 € 17.9 € 3.3 €
FOCUS ON FRANCE
126
France: renewable energies
Actual data, ktoe
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 change in % 2013-2014
Share in %
Wood 9,986 8,658 10,028 10,664 8,736 -18% 39.0%Hydro 5,406 3,891 5,001 6,200 5,376 -13% 24.0%Biofuels 2,256 2,055 2,397 2,480 2,688 8% 12.0%Heat pumps 1,203 1,093 1,384 1,736 1,568 -10% 7.0%Wind 855 1,052 1,284 1,488 1,568 5% 7.0%Municipal renewable waste 1,025 1,002 1,018 1,240 1,120 -10% 5.0%
Biogas 365 410 443 496 448 -10% 2.0%Solar PV 53 179 349 496 448 -10% 2.0%Waste from agriculture and food-processing
343 295 290 248 224 -10% 1.0%
Geothermal 90 89 94 198 224 13% 1.0%
Solar thermal 64 71 79 99 90 -10% 0.4%Total 21,582 18,724 22,288 24,800 22,400 -10% 100%
Source: SOeS, Energy Mix 2014 (July 2015)
RENEWABLE ENERGY PRIMARY PRODUCTION BY SOURCE
CHANGE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PRIMARY PRODUCTION, 1985-2014
GRID-TIED WIND AND PV POWER AT 31 DECEMBER 2014
Source: Energy Mix 2014 (July 2015) – SOeS (based on ERDF, RTE, SEI and the main LDCs)
Not seasonally adjusted data, en Mtoe.Source: SOeS (based on sectors’ data)
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICWIND
Max.: 758 MWMoy.: 91 MW
Max.: 340 MWMoy.: 56 MW
Guadeloupe
Martinique
Guyane
la Réunion
Mayotte
Guadeloupe
Martinique
Guyane
la Réunion
Mayotte
0
8 6 4 2
14 12 10
16 18 20
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20132014
Mto
e
Solar thermal, heat pumps, deep geothermal
Biofuels Biogas Renewable waste Non-renewable waste Solid biomass (excl. waste)
FOCUS ON FRANCE
127
France: biomethane part of the energy transition
France has considerable biogas potential and the new Energy Transi-tion Act encourages the upgrading of biogas into biomethane for injection in the natural gas grid.
Over 400 sites produce biogas in France and over 200 of them use it in cogeneration to produce electricity and heat, notably in the agricultural sector. The regulatory framework setting purchase tariffs for electricity generated from biogas dates back to 2006, so the use of biogas in cogeneration is relatively recent.
The lack of uses of heat from methanisation sites makes the injection of biogas into gas networks a particularly attractive solution. The biogas has to be purified to obtain biomethane* of similar quality to that of natural gas before injecting it in the natural gas networks. A traceability system allows customers to use green gas for heating, cooking, hot water or fuel. The use of biomethane as a fuel is considered the most virtuous by ADEME (the French environmental agency), as it substitutes for oil and therefore offers the greatest for cutting GHG emissions.
BREAKDOWN OF BIOGAS POTENTIAL IN FRANCE ASSESSED AT 200 TWH/YEAR
Biomethane tariffs for new sites
BIOMETHANE COULD MAKE UP 10% OF FRENCH GAS CONSUMPTION BY 2030,
ACCORDING TO ADEME
Households & collectivities
10%Crop
residues
53%
Intermediary energy crops 11%
Livestock manure20%
Agro-food industry & shops 6%
Low hypothesis High hypothesis(Source: Ademe)
TARIFFS FAVOUR THE INTEGRATION OF WASTE AND DEPEND ON THE SIZE OF THE SITE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Injection Cogeneration Heat
12
30 29
10
18TW
h
c€
/kW
h
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Injection flow in Nm3/h
As at end-August 2015, 12 biomethane production sites were connected to the grid, supplying the equivalent of about 10,500 homes or 1,000 buses using bioNGV**. ADE-ME is promoting this sector and is planning a 30 TWh injection into transport and gas supply networks by 2030. A 2013 study sponsored by this same agency on potential substrates that could foster methanisation valued the gross potential of biogas production by methanisation at 200 TWh. The objective of a 10% share of renewable gas in final natural gas consumption at that same date would then be met, and has been included in the Energy Tran-sition Act.
* See glossary in appendix for biogas and biomethane definitions** Assumptions: average consumption of a natural gas client = 12 MWh/year average consumption of a bus = 125 MWh/year 8,200 hours in operation in a full year.
Agricultural/Agro-food waste
Sewage treatment residues
Urban waste
Methanisation basic tariff
NHW ** storage facilities
FOCUS ON FRANCE
128
France: CO2 emissions by sector
Emissions, MtCO2
1990 2000 2010 2013 2014 Change 2013-2014 Change 1990-2014
Energy sector 46 55 59 52 36 -30% -21%
Industry 96 90 66 62 56 -9% -41%
Transport 112 133 123 123 120 -2,0% 7%
Residential Services 85 86 90 83 73 -12% -14%
Agriculture 11 12 11 12 11 -4% 1%
Total 350 375 350 331 297 -10% -15%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
CO² EMISSIONS IN FRANCE BY SECTOR, 1990-2014 – MTCO
²
Change in CO2 emissions in France:
French CO2 emissions related to fuel com-
bustion declined markedly in 2014 (-9.4%) because exceptionally mild weather cut heating en-
ergy consumption. At the same time, emissions have been steadily declining in temperature-adjusted terms since 2007, with an annual average drop of 2.4%. This highlights the de-carbonisation of the French energy system (emissions were 16% lower in 2014 than in 1990).
The largest emitter remains the transport sector, with 41% of total emissions, far ahead of the residential and ser-vices sector (24%), industry (19%), the energy sector (12%) and agriculture (4%).
Emissions by the transport sector fell 2% in 2014, with fuel consumption stagnating over the year. The respective 12% and 9% reductions in the residential and services and in the industrial sector resulted from lower heating consumption and a slight 0.4% drop in industrial production. But energy efficien-cy also played an important part.
Emissions from the energy sector receded (excluding the weather effect), in line with the increase in RES and nuclear power production. Production from fossil fuels continued to decline, and several coal-fired plants shut down.
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Residential & Services
Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Energy sector0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
96
112
11
85
46
1990
90
133
12
86
55
2000
66
123
11
90
59
2010
62
123
12
83
52
2013
56
120
11
73
36
2014
FOCUS ON FRANCE
129
France: CO2 emissions 2000-2030
MtCO2
2000 Share of total emissions
2010 Share of total emissions
2020 Share of total emissions
2030 Share of total emissions
Change 2010-2020
Change 2010-2030
Total CO2 emissions (incl. industrial processes) 397 100% 374 100% 343 100% 318 100% -8% -15%
Total fuel combustion 374 94% 355 95% 326 95% 303 95% -8% -15%
Heat and electricity production 41 10% 48 13% 32 9% 33 10% -32% -31%
Industry (incl. self-produced) 98 25% 75 20% 83 24% 87 27% 11% 15%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 101 25% 104 28% 95 28% 83 26% -8% -20%
Transport 133 34% 128 34% 113 33% 97 31% -11% -24%
Coal 52 13% 40 11% 36 11% 30 9% -9% -25%
Heat and electricity production 30 8% 23 6% 16 5% 7 2% -33% -68%
Manufacturing 17 4% 14 4% 18 5% 21 6% 29% 46%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 2 1% 2 0% 1 0% 1 0% -25% -48%
Transport 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Natural gas 84 21% 101 27% 97 28% 103 33% -4% 3%
Heat and electricity production 7 2% 18 5% 13 4% 21 7% -26% 20%
Manufacturing 32 8% 23 6% 27 8% 30 9% 14% 29%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 43 11% 55 15% 53 15% 48 15% -4% -13%
Transport 0 0% - 0% - 0% - 0%
Oil 238 60% 215 57% 193 56% 170 53% -10% -21%
Heat and electricity production 4 1% 7 2% 4 1% 5 1% -48% -34%
Manufacturing 25 6% 19 5% 21 6% 21 7% 14% 15%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 56 14% 47 13% 41 12% 34 11% -13% -27%
Transport 133 34% 128 34% 113 33% 97 31% -11% -24%
Historical data recalculated by the POLES model. Source: Enerdata, Balance scenario - POLES model (February 2015)
FOCUS ON FRANCE
130
France: 2014 combustion CO2 and 2013 GHG profiles
BILAN CO2 (COMBUSTION) – FRANCE – 2014 GHG EMISSIONS IN FRANCE REPORTED TO THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
MtCO2
2014
Reference approach 293
Coal 29
Oil 187
Natural gas 77
Sector approach 297
Energy industry, o/w 36
Electricity generation 16
Refineries 11
Manufacturing and construction, o/w 56
Electricity self-production 4
Residential, services, agriculture, o/w 84
Residential 52
Services 21
Agriculture 11
Transport 120
Road 115
Rail 1
Domestic civil aviation 4
Fluvial 1
International bunkers 23
Maritime 6
Aviation 18
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Emissions kteqCO2 2013
CO2
CH4
N2O HFC PFC SF
6NF
3
ENERGY 349,577 3,039 4,027 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 17,812 52 986 19,781 658 581 11
Use of solvents and other products 728 0 0 0 0 0 0
Agriculture 1,858 39,178 38,597 0 0 0 0
LULUCF -48,007 1,324 117 0 0 0 0
Waste disposal 1,521 17,372 985 0 0 0 0
Total excluding LULUCF 371495 59641 44,595 19,781 658 581 11
Total 323,488 60,965 44,712 19,781 658 581 11
LULUCF: Land use, land-use change and forestry.
Source: Greenhouse gas inventory data - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
Belgium Même si les gaz de schiste sont toujours contestés, il est de plus en plus probable que l’avenir de la production
gazière mondiale reposera en grande partie sur ces derniers
131131
Focus on Belgium
132 Energy mix
134 Natural gas and electricity
139 CO2 and GHG emissions
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
132
Belgium: 2014 energy mix
Mtoe Coal & Lignite Crude oil Petroleum products
Gas Hydro & Nuclear Electricity Heat Biomass Total
Primary production 9.42 0.09 3.90 13.41
Imported 3.69 36.07 23.38 17.45 1.87 0.56 83.03
Exported -0.58 -3.46 -26.84 -4.37 -0.36 -0.11 -35.71
Maritime and aviation bunkers -6.65 -6.65
Change in stocks 0.30 -0.12 0.77 -0.87 0.08
Primary supply 3.41 32.49 -9.34 12.21 9.42 1.51 0.09 4.35 54.15
Refineries -36.17 35.41 -0.76
Power stations -1.03 -0.07 -3.35 -9.42 6.32 0.66 -1.52 -8.41
Self-use, losses* -0.34 3.68 -5.34 0.08 -1.05 -0.21 -0.01 -3.19
Final consumption 2.04 20.66 8.94 6.79 0.54 2.82 41.80
Industry 1.89 0.47 3.97 3.23 0.42 1.97 11.94
Transport 7.77 0.02 0.08 0.34 8.22
Residential,services 0.15 3.68 4.82 3.47 0.13 0.51 12.76
Non-energy 8.75 0.13 8.88
* Including district heating. Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
133
Belgium: final consumption by sector
Final energy consumption, mtoe
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2014 2013/2014 2000/2014
Industry 14.2 13.3 12.0 14.2 11.6 12.1 11.9 -1% -16%Oil 5.5 2.6 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 5% -71%
Natural gas 1.7 3.0 2.9 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.0 -9% -14%Electricity 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 1% -6%
Coal, lignite 5.5 5.3 4.5 3.7 1.8 1.4 1.9 34% -49%Heat 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 -9% -2%
Biomass 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.2 2.0 -11% 418%Transport 3.9 5.4 6.8 8.2 9.2 8.3 8.2 0% 0%
Oil 3.8 5.3 6.7 8.1 8.7 7.8 7.8 0% -4%Electricity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -35% -33%
Coal, lignite 0.0 0.0 - -Biofuels 0.4 0.3 0.3 1% -
Residential-services-agriculture
11.2 13.0 11.6 13.6 14.9 14.1 12.8 -9% -6%
Oil 6.8 7.0 5.1 5.3 4.5 3.7 3.7 0% -30%Natural gas 0.8 3.4 3.5 4.8 6.1 5.9 4.8 -19% 0%
Electricity 0.7 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.5 -4% 11%Coal, lignite 2.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 34% -25%
Heat 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -8% 93%Biomass 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 -10% 236%
Non-energy uses 2.2 2.6 3.1 6.7 8.3 8.3 8.9 7% 32%Oil 2.2 2.0 2.7 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.7 8% 45%
Natural gas 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 -9% -81%Coal, lignite 0.0 0.0 0 - -
Total 31.4 34.4 33.6 42.8 44.0 42.7 41.8 -2% -2%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN BELGIUM IN 2014 BY SECTOR AND ENERGY TYPE – TOTAL: 45 MTOE
Gas Oil Electricity Coal & lignite Heat Biomass Sources: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
0
3
6
9
12
15
2.0
3.2
0.5
1.9
4.0
0.4
7.8
0.10.3
3.7
4.8
8.7
0.1
3.5
0.2
0.50.1
TransportIndustry R&SAgriculture
Non-energy
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
134
Belgium: electricity consumption and market share by sector
Final energy and natural gas consumption, Mtoe
2012 2013 2014
Total Gas Gas share Total Gas Gas share Total Gas Gas share
Total consumption 56 14 26% 57 14 25% 54 12 22%Final consumption 43 10 24% 43 10 25% 42 9 21%Residential, Services, Agriculture 14 6 40% 14 6 42% 13 5 38%
o/w Residential 8 3 35% 8 3 37% 7 2 33%o/w Services 5 2 36% 5 2 38% 4 1 34%
o/w Agriculture 1 0.3 40% 1 0.3 42% 1 0.2 38%Industry 13 5 37% 12 4 36% 12 4 33%Non-energy uses 8 0.2 2% 8 0.1 2% 9 0.1 2%Transport 9 0.02 0.3% 8 0.02 0.3% 8 0.02 0.3%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Final energy and electricity consumption, Mtoe
2012 2013 2014
Total Electricity Electricity share
Total Electricity Electricity share
Total Electricity Electricity share
Total consumption 12 21% 57 12 22% 54 11 20%Final consumption 7 16% 43 7 16% 42 7 16%Residential, Services, Agriculture 4 26% 14 4 26% 13 3 27%
o/w Residential 2 22% 8 2 22% 7 2 23%o/w Services 2 42% 5 2 41% 4 2 43%
o/w Agriculture 0.01 1% 1 0.01 1% 1 0.01 1%Industry 3 25% 12 3 26% 12 3 27%Transport 0.1 2% 8 0.1 2% 8 0.1 1%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
CONSUMPTION AND GAS MARKET SHARE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN BELGIUM BY SECTOR IN 2014
TOTAL: 12 MTOE
FINAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN BELGIUM IN 2014
TOTAL: 7 MTOE
FINAL CONSUMPTION AND ELECTRICITY MARKET SHARES
non-energy use 1%
Agriculture 2%
Agriculture 0,1%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Services 13%
Transport 1%
Residential21%
Industry35%
Energy sector
28%
Residential24%
Industry48%
Services27%
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
135
Belgium: natural gas supplies
Natural gas supply in Belgium, bcm
2013 2014
Pipeline
Norway 8.76 9.50
Netherlands 5.45 5.15
UK 1.22 2.30
Russia 11.70 9.47
Germany 1.70 0.45
France 0.08 0.10
Re-exports -11.65 -11.96
Total Pipeline 17.3 15.0
LNG tankers
Norway 0.01 0.00
Qatar 2.93 2.82
Ré-exports -1.41 -1.29
Total LNG tankers 1.5 1.5
Total Pipeline + LNG tankers 18.8 16.5
Source: Cedigaz 2015
Flows from Belgium to several gas importers reflect its role as a gas hub: first with the Zeebrugge LNG terminal, which serves as a gateway to supply LNG into Northwestern Europe; then thanks to its position on major European corridors that link Belgium to UK, Germany, Luxembourg, France and Southern Europe.
Norway 32,4%
UK 6,6%
Russia 32,3%
1,3%0,5%
1,5%
0,6%
3,3%
0,9% 7%
3,1%
1,6%
6,3%
1,2%
0,7%
51,6%20,5%
Qatar 9,6%
Netherlands17,6%
Germany1,5%
NET EXPORTERS OF NATURAL GAS (PIPELINE AND LNG TANKERS) TO BELGIUM IN 2014
NET IMPORTERS OF NATURAL GAS (PIPELINE AND LNG TANKERS) FROM BELGIUM IN 2014
France Argentina Brazil Croatia Czech Republic Luxembourg Serbia Spain South Korea Dubai Italy
Japan Portugal Singapore
Sources: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
136
Belgium: natural gas infrastructure
With 18 interconnection points linking the country with neighbouring networks, Belgium has one of the most integrated infrastructures in Northwest Europe. It receives gas from the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Russia and from LNG producing countries. The country is also a major hub for natural gas transport towards the Netherlands, Germany, Luxembourg, France, the UK and South Europe.
Zeebrugge is at the heart of the Belgian gas transport network, comprising two regasification units and two major pipelines: the East-West pipeline linking Russia to the UK (Interconnector terminal) and the North-South pipeline linking Norway to the South of Europe (the Zeepipe terminal). Zeebrugge is also a major European hub for short-term gas trading.The Belgium network comprises over 4,100 km of pipelines. Long-term booked capacity for border-to-border transmission stands at around 90 Gm3/yr.
Maps source: Fluxys
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
137
Belgium: electricity generation
Electricity production, Twh
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual % change
2013-2014
2000-2014 1970-2000
Hydro 0.2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 -14% -1% 7%
Nuclear 0.1 13 43 48 48 48 48 40 43 34 -21% -3% 25%
Themal 30 40 27 34 38 44 37 36 33 31 -7% -1% 0%
Oil 16 18 1 1 2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3% -8% -9%
Natuaral gas 4 6 5 16 23 31 25 24 22 20 -7% 2% 5%
Coal and lignite 10 16 20 16 10 6 5 5 5 5 -6% -8% 1%
Non-conventional energy 0 0.3 1 1 2 6 6 7 6 5 -10% 11% -
Renewables 0 0 0.01 0.02 0.2 2 3 5 6 7 21% 55% -
Wind 0 0 0.01 0.02 0.2 1 2 3 4 5 24% 50% -
Solar 0 0 0 0 0.001 1 1 2 2 3 17% - -
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - -
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - -
Total 31 54 71 84 87 95 90 83 84 74 -12% -1% 3%
Source: Enerdata. Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Electricity production totalled less than 75 TWh in 2014, down 12% from 2013.
The main reason was a 21 drop in nuclear production following the shutdown of the Doel 3, Tihange 2 and Doel 4 reactors. The share of nuclear production in electricity generation dropped from 52% in 2013 to 46% in 2014.
As in France, hydro plants generated little electricity in 2014 (-14%).
Conversely, with the support of the authorities ahead of COP21 and thanks to mild weather, wind and solar production increased by 24% and 17%, respectively.
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN BELGIUM IN 2014
TOTAL: 74 TWH
Hydro2%
Non-conventional energy 7%
Coal & lignite 7%
Oil 0,4%
Wind 6%
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Solar 4%
Natural gas28%Nuclear
46%
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
138
Belgium: electricity infrastructure
Belgium is interconnected with neighbouring networks (France, the Netherlands and Luxem-bourg).
The shutdown of the Doel 3, Tihange 2 and Doel 4 reactors in 2014 cut the country’s nuclear production. These decisions were taken after the discovery of micro fis-sures and several technical incidents; the government’s com-mitment to denuclearisation makes Belgium structurally de-pendant on imports during the winter.
Very cold weather could now mean severe power shor-tages, as neighbouring suppliers such as France and the Netherlands would probably also be exposed to consumption peaks at that time.
380 Kv 220 Kv 150 Kv
70, 36 and 30 kV networks are not on this map.
Source: Elia group
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
139
Belgium: CO2 emissions
MtCO2
2000 Share of total emissions
2010 Share of total emissions
2020 Share of total emissions
2030 Share of total emissions
Change 2010 -2020
Change 2010-2030
Total CO2 emissions (incl. industrial processes) 127 100% 117 100% 113 100% 113 100% -3% -3%
Total fuel combustion 113 90% 108 93% 106 93% 107 95% -2% -1%
Heat and electricity production 21 17% 18 15% 19 16% 27 24% 5% 51%
Industry (incl. self-produced) 42 33% 30 26% 32 29% 34 30% 8% 13%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 29 23% 29 25% 27 23% 22 19% -9% -26%
Transport 26 20% 27 23% 25 22% 21 19% -5% -19%
Coal 24 19% 10 8% 10 8% 10 9% 1% 5%
Heat and electricity production 13 11% 5 4% 4 4% 3 3% -19% -40%
Manufacturing 8 7% 3 3% 4 4% 6 5% 36% 83%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 1 1% 1 0% 0 0% 0 0% -39% -58%
Transport 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Natural gas 31 24% 39 33% 43 38% 51 45% 10% 31%
Heat and electricity production 7 6% 12 11% 14 12% 23 20% 15% 85%
Manufacturing 12 9% 12 10% 13 12% 14 13% 8% 16%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 11 9% 14 12% 15 13% 13 12% 5% -6%
Transport 0 0% – 0% – 0% – 0%
Oil 59 47% 60 51% 54 47% 46 41% -10% -23%
Heat and electricity production 1 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 1% 38% 222%
Manufacturing 9 7% 6 5% 7 7% 8 7% 20% 25%
Residential, Services, Agriculture 17 13% 14 12% 11 10% 8 7% -23% -44%
Transport 26 20% 27 23% 25 22% 21 19% -5% -19%
Historical data recalculated by the POLES model.Source: Enerdata, Balance scenario - POLES model (February 2015)
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
140
Belgium: analysis of CO2 and GHG emissions by sector
Changes in CO2 emissions by sector
Historical data and Enerdata trend Balance scenario projections,
MtCO2
2000 2010 2020 2030
Volume % Total Volume % Total Volume % Total Volume % Total
Electricity and heat production 21 17% 18 15% 19 16% 27 24%
Industry, incl. industrial processes 42 33% 30 26% 32 29% 34 30%
R&S, Agriculture 29 23% 29 25% 27 23% 22 19%
Transport 26 20% 27 23% 25 22% 21 19%
Total (incl. refining) 127 100% 117 100% 113 100% 113 100%
Données historiques recalculées par le modèle POLES. Source: Enerdata, Scénario Balance – Modèle POLES (Février 2015)
CO2 EMISSIONS IN BELGIUMHISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS (ENERDATA TREND REFERENCE SCENARIO)
Source: Enerdata, Balance scenario - POLES model (February 2015)
Electricity and heat production
Industry
R & S, Agriculture
Transport
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MtC
O2
26
29
42
21
27
29
30
18
25
27
32
19
21
22
34
27
2000 2010 2020 2030
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
141
Belgium: analysis of CO2 and GHG emissions by sector
CO2 (COMBUSTION) MIX – BELGIUM GHG EMISSIONS IN BELGIUM REPORTED TO THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Émissions de CO2 – en MtCO
22014
Reference approach 93 Coal 12 Oil 53 Natural gas 28
Sector approach 91 Energy sector, o/w 21
Electricity generation 13 Refineries 5
Manufacturing and construction, o/w 23 Electricity self-producers 1
Residential, services, agriculture o/w 23 Residential 14 Services 6 Agriculture 2
Transport 24 Road 23 Rail 0 Domestic civil aviation 0 Fluvial 0
International bunkers 21 Maritime 17 Aviation 4
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data (June 2015)
Emissions, kt
2013
CO2
(kt. CO2)
CH4
(kt. eq CO2)
N2O
(kt. eq CO2)
HFC(kt. eq CO
2)
PFC(kt.eq CO
2)
SF6
(kt.eq CO2)
NF3
(kt.eq CO2)
Energy 86,031 1,021 630 0 0 0 0
o/w Fugitive emissions 108 452 0 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 15,169 20 1,252 2,529 429 116 1
Use of solvents and other products
27 0 84 0 0 0 0
Agriculture 126 6,457 3,533 0 0 0 0
LULUCF -3,855 0 98 0 0 0 0
Waste disposal 310 1,381 308 0 0 0 0
Total excl. LULUCF* 101,662 8,880 5,808 2,529 429 116 1
Total 97,807 8,880 5,906 2,529 429 116 1
*UTCF: utilisation des terres, leur changement et la forêt.Source: Greenhouse gas inventory data - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
Appendix 1: energy scenarios and sources
144 Position of the scenarios presented in the document
146 Data sources
Geographical scope of the sources
143
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
144
World scenarios: economic and environmental positioning
Business as usual Central Environmental Economy
IEA (WEO 2015)Horizon 2040
Current Policies: This scenario only takes into account energy policies in place by mid-2015, on the assumption that new commitments won’t be translated into action. It allows us to estimate the consequences of inaction.
New Policies: This scenario includes energy policies already in place as well as commitments announced by mid-2015, depending on their credibility.National commitments (INDCs) submitted by 1 October for COP21 are also included.
450: This standardised scenario is based on the implementation of the energy policies necessary to limit the increase in average temperature to 2°.GHG concentration peaks by the middle of the century and stabilises at 450ppm by 2100.
Macroeconomic assumptions
Economic growth: +3.5% per year on average in 2013-2040 (OECD: +1.9%; non OECD: +4.5%)World population: from 7.1 billion in 2013 to 9 billion people in 2040
Carbon prices ($2014/tonne)
European Union: $20 in 2020, $30 in 2030, $40 in 2040
European Union: $22 in 2020, $37 in 2030, $50 in 2040China: $10 in 2020, $23 in 2030, $35 in 2040
European Union and North America: $22 in 2020, $100 in 2030, $140 in 2040BRICs: $10 in 2020, $75 in 2030, $125 in 2040
Enerdata (2015)Global Energy ForcastingHorizon 2035
Balance: This scenario takes into account current trends and policies but also assumes that commitments regarding energy will translate into action. Energy demand and prices rise, as well as GHG emissions.
Emergence: This scenario assumes strict application of climate policies (greater energy efficiency, priority to RES, etc.). A worldwide agreement is reached to reduce GHG emissions by half across the globe by 2050.
Renaissance: This scenario features an increase in fossil fuel consumption due to the shale oil and shale gas revolution, as well as geopolitical changes that threaten some countries’ energy independence..
Macroeconomic assumptions
Economic growth: +3.8% per year on average in 2013-2040World population: from 7.1 billion in 2013 to 9 billion people in 2040
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
145
World scenarios: economic and environmental positioning
Enerdata
IEA
Economy+3% +3.5% +4%
Environnemental pressure
(Average annual GDP growth, 2013-2040)
450
Emergence
New Policies
Balance
Current Policies
Rennaissance
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
146
Sources
Primary energy data comes from the Inter-
national Energy Agency (IEA). It is completed with data from regional organizations (EUROSTAT, OLADE, ADB, OPEC) or specialized institutions
(Cedigaz), as well as by data from national sources (national statistics or data specially prepared by local correspondents with more than 100 partners in around 60 countries). This complementary data is used for the assessment and correc-tion of primary data, and for the quick update of our own data.The methodology and definitions used by Enerdata are the same as that of IEA and Eurostat.
Energy statistics in physical units are converted into
energy units (ktoe or Mtoe) on the basis of the following
coefficients:
Crude oil: fixed coefficient for most countries: 1.02 toe / ton Oil products: fixed coefficient for all countries - same as EUROSTAT or IEA Natural gas: national coefficients for key countries and fixed coefficients for the other countries (0.82 toe / 1000 m3); the national coefficients are indicated in the database
Coal, Lignite: fixed coefficient for coke; national coefficient for production, imports and exports for key producers or importers; the national coefficients are indicated in the database Electricity:
• nuclear: 1 TWh = 0.26 Mtoe • hydroelectricity: 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe • geothermal: 1 TWh = 0.86 Mtoe • total production: 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe • imports, exports: 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe • consumption: 1 TWh = 0.086 Mtoe
Internet linksBP Statistical Review 2015: www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world- energy-2015-full-report.pdf
Cedigaz: http://www.cedigas.org/
Enerdata: www.enerdata.com – Subscriber services: http://services.enerdata.net/
INTRODUCTION
FMI, World Economic Outlook 2015 IEA – WEO 2015 – IHS CERA B3G, Direction de la Stratégie GDF SUEZ Trading – Bourse ICE BP Statistical Review 2015 Argus&McCloskey Bloomberg New Energy Finance Enerdata
OVERVIEW
Enerdata - GDF SUEZ Trading - Uranium Red Book
PRICES & COSTS
BP Statistical Review 2015 Bourse ICE – IEA – WEO 2015 IHS CERA – Powernext – NYMEX IEA – Argus & Mc Closkey BAFA – GDF SUEZ Trading Enerdata Ministère de l’economy et des finances Bloomberg New Energy Finance
OIl
BP statistical review 2015 - AIE - WEO 2015 - EAI - Enerdata
COAL
AIE - WEO 2015 – BP statistical review 2015 – Mc Closkey Enerdata
NATURAL GASAIE – WEO 2015 – Cedigaz BP statistical review 2015 GRT Gas – Enerdata
ELECTRICITYAIE – WEO 2015 – BP statistical review 2015 – Enerdata
CO2
UNFCCC – ADEME – Enerdata
FOCUS ON FRANCE
SOeS Bilan de l’Énergie 2015 ADEME – CEREN – Batim Etude GRT Gas – CRE – RTE – UNFCCC Enerdata
FOCUS ON BELGIUM
Cedigaz - Fluxys - Elia - Enerdata
Enerdata: voir Méthodologie ci-dessous
Enerdata methodology
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
147
Geographic scope of the sources
Enerdata
Europe region
Europe European Union (28), Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Iceland, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia and Montenegro, Switzerland, Turkey.
UE-28 European Union (25), Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia.
America region
America North America, Mexico, Central America, South America, Caribbeanv
Latin America Central America, Mexico, South America, Caribbean.
North America Canada, USA.
Central America and Mexico
Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama.
South America Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.
Caribbean Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles and Aruba, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago.
Asia region
Asia ASEAN, Afghanistan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, Mongolia, North Korea, South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), Soth Korea, Taiwan.
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam).
Pacific region
Pacific Australia, Pacific Islands, New Zealand.
Africa region
Africa North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa.
North Africa Algeria, Egype, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, DR Congo, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Middle East region
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
OPEC Middle East Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE).
CIS region
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States (former USSR, excluding Baltic countries).
Soviet Union (former)
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
Source: Enerdata
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
148
Geographic scope of the sources
International Energy AgencyEurope regionEuropean Union UE 28Eastern Europe / Eurasia
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, the former Yugoslav, Republic of Macedonia, the Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia (incl Montenegro until 2004 and Kosovo until 1999, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. For statistical reasons, this region also includes Cyprus, Gibraltar and Malta.
OECD Europe Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
America regionOECD North America Canada, Mexico and the United States.OECD Latin America Chile.Latin America Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia,
Brazil, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Falkland Islands, French Guyana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre et Miquelon, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Asia-Pacific regionChina Refers to the People’s Republic of China, including Hong Kong.ASEAN Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.OECD Asia Japan and Korea.Non-OECD Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei,
the Cook Islands, East Timor, Fiji, French Polynesia, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Vietnam and Vanuatu.
Other Asia Non-OECD Asia regional grouping excluding China and India.
International Energy AgencyOECD Oceania Australia and New Zealand.OECD Pacific Includes OECD Asia and Oceania.Africa regionAfrica Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central
African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
North Africa Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Morocco and Tunisia.Sub-Saharan Africa Africa regional grouping excluding South Africa and North Africa regional grouping.Middle East regionMiddle East Bahrain, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. It includes the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
CIS regionOECD Includes OECD Europe, OECD Latin and North America and OECD Pacific regional
groupings.OECD+ OECD regional grouping and those countries that are members of the European Union but
not of the OECD.Other Major Economies
Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and the countries of the Middle East.
Other Countries Comprises all countries not included in OECD+ and Other Major Economies regional groupings, including India, Indonesia, the African countries (excluding South Africa), the countries of Latin America (excluding Brazil), and the countries of non-OECD Asia, (excluding China) and the countries of Eastern Europe / Eurasia (excluding Russia).
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
Source: International Energy Agency
SCENARIOS & SOURCES
149
Geographic scope of the sources
BP Statistical Review
North America US (excluding Puerto Rico), Canada, Mexico.
South and Central America
Caribbean (including Puerto Rico), Central and South America
Europe European members of the OECD plus Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovenia.
Former Soviet Union Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
Europe and Eurasia All countries listed above under the headings Europe and Former Soviet Union.
Middle East Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria.
North Africa Territories on the north coast of Africa from Egypt to western Sahara.
West Africa Territories on the west coast of Africa from Mauritania to Angola, including Cape Verde, Chad.
East and Southern Africa
Territories on the east coast of Africa from Sudan to Republic of South Africa. Also Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Asia Pacific Brunei, Cambodia, China, China Hong Kong SAR *, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, North Korea, Philippines, Singapore, South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Oceania. * Special Administrative Region.
Australasia Australia, New Zealand.
OECD members Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.Other member countries: Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea, US.
OPEC members Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates.North Africa: Algeria, Libya.West Africa: Angola, Nigeria.South America: Ecuador, Venezuela.
BP Statistical Review
European Union members
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK.
Other EMEs (Emerging Market Economies)
South and Central America, Africa, Middle East, non-OECD Asia, non-OECD Europe.
Methodology The primary energy values of both nuclear and hydroelectric power generation have been derived by calculating the equivalent amount of fossil fuel required to generate the same volume of electricity in a thermal power station, assuming a conversion efficiency of 38% (the average for OECD thermal power generation).
Percentages Calculated before rounding of actuals. All annual changes and shares of totals are on a weight basis except on pages 6, 14, 18, 20 and 22.
Rounding differences Because of rounding, some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Tonnes Metric equivalent of tons.
Disclosure Statistics published in this Review are taken from government sources and published data. No use is made of confidential information obtained by BP in the course of its business.
Country groupings are made purely for statistical purposes and are not intended to imply any judgement about political or economic standings.
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
Appendix 2
Appendix 2: Conversions & Glossary
152 Conversions
154 Glossary
151
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
152
Conversions
Denominations in the American system 10 0 unit10 1 tens10 2 hundreds10 3 thousands10 6 millions10 9 billions10 12 trillions
The French billion is 1012
Weight kilograms1 pound 0.4531 American ton (short ton) 9071 British ton (long ton) 1,016
Other energies
Heavy fuel Super fuel Dry wood Household waste Paper waste Uranium
Physical unit 1 ton 1 000 liters 1 ton 1 ton 1 ton 1 ton
Tons of oil equivalent 0.95 0.79 0.33 0.18 0.33 10,000
MWh 11 9.1 3.9 2.1 3.9 130
GJ 40 33 14 7.6 14 42,000
Energy unitFrom To
MWh toe GJ MMBtu Thermmultiply by
MWh 1 0.0860 3.6 3.412 34.12toe 11.63 1 41.9 39.68 396.8GJ 0.2778 0.0239 1 0.948 9.48MMBtu 0.293 0.0252 1.055 1 10Therm 0.0293 0.00252 0.105 0.1 1
Multiples and decimal sub-multiples of the units of measurementAbbreviation Name Value Power
P panda 1,000,000,000,000,000 1015
T tera 1,000,000,000,000 1012
G giga 1,000,000,000 109
M mega 1,000,000 106
k kilo 1,000 103
h hecto 100 102
da deca 10 101
unité unit 1 100
da deci 0.1 10-1
c centi 0.01 10-2
m milli 0.001 10-3
µ micro 0.000 001 10-6
Volume unitFrom To
m3 liters ft3 US gallon barrelmultiply by
m3 1 1 000 35.32 264 6.28liters 0.001 1 0.0353 0.264 0.00629ft3 0.0283 28.3 1 7.47 0.178US gallon 0.00379 3.79 0.134 1 0.0238Barrel 0.159 159 5.62 42 1
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
153
Conversions
Natural gas (GN) & liquefied natural gas (LNG)From To
bcm Gft3 Mtoe Million tons of LNG
Millions of m3 of
LNG
TBtu Million barrels of oil equivalent
TWh PJ
Multiply by1 billion cubic meter NG (1 Gm3) 1 35.3 0.93 0.739 1.63 37.0 6.37 10.8 39.01 billion cubic feet NG 0.0283 1 0.026 0.0209 0.0460 1.05 0.18 0.307 1.101 million tons of oil equivalent 1.07 37.9 1 0.794 1.74 39.69 6.84 11.6 41.91 million tons of LNG 1.35 47.7 1.26 1 2.20 50.0 8.62 14.7 52.71 million cubic meter of LNG 0.615 21.7 0.573 0.455 1 22.8 3.92 6.67 24.01 trillion British thermal units 0.0270 0.955 0.0252 0.0200 0.0440 1 0.17 0.293 1.051 million barils of oil equivalent 0.157 5.54 0.146 0.116 0.255 5.8 1 1.70 6.12TWh 0.0923 3.258 0.0860 0.0683 0.150 3.41 0.588 1 3.6PJ 0.0256 0.905 0.0239 0.0190 0.0417 0.948 0.163 0.278 1
1 m3 NG: 0.9 of crude oil – 1 m3 NG: 10,000 kcal – 1 m3 NG: 41.860 kJNB: These conversions are based on eight assumptions identified by the figures in bold.
Crude oil
From To
Tonnes 1,000 liters Barrels US Gallons MWh GJ
Multiply by
Tons (Metric) 1 1.212 7.6 320 12.1 43.5
1,000 liters 0.825 1 6.290 264.17 10.0 35.9
Barrel 0.132 0.159 1 42 1.587 5.710
US Gallons 0.00313 0.0038 0.0238 1 0.0378 0.136
MWh 0.0827 0.100 0.630 0.630 1 3.60
GJ 0.0230 0.028 0.028 7.35 0.278 1
Coal
From To
Short ton Metric ton Ton of oil equivalent MWh GJ
Multiply by
Short ton 1 0.9071847 0.6248 7.560 27.22
Metric ton 1.102 1 0.6887 8.333 30
Ton of oil equivalent
1.601 1.452 1 12.1 43.5
MWh 0.1323 0.1200 0.08264 1 3.6
GJ 0.03674 0.03333 0.02299 0.278 1
The change from cubic meters to kWh and more generally from volume units to energy units depends on the quality of the gas. We speak of HHV and LHV de-pending on whether we use the lower or higher estimate of the heating value of the gas. The HHV estimate includes heat recoverable from steam (including energy recoverable from condensation). In a gas context, we generally speak of HHV. We speak of LHV in domestic inter-energy reports, for example.1 kWh LHV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . = 0.9 kWh HHV1,000 m3 of HHV Natural Gas = 0,9 toe1,000 m3 of LHV Natural Gas . = 0,81 toe1 toe (HHV context) . . . . . . . . = 1,111 m3 of Natural Gas1 toe (LHV context) . . . . . . . . = 1,234 m3 of Natural Gas1 m3 of HHV Natural Gas . . . . = standard of 42 MJ (HHV) (between 38 and 42 MJ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . standard of 11.7 kWh (HHV) (between 9 and 12 kWh). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . European conversion: 39 MJ (HHV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . European conversion: 10.8 kWh (HHV). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . conversion in France: 11.5 kWh (HHV)1 Tcf PCS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . = 25,48 Mtoe1 tonne of LNG . . . . . . . . . . . = 1,320 – 1,380 m3 of gas
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
154
Glossary
Added value: Usual method for measuring the net production of a branch or a sector in monetary units; added value is equal to the difference between the gross production and intermediate consumption; added value can be measured at the cost of the factor or at the market price. Added value of agriculture measures the activity of farming, fishing and forestry. Added value of indus-try measures mining, manufacturing and construction activities, and electricity, gas and water. Added value of services or of the tertiary sector measures the activity of all services, both public and private: retail and wholesale commerce, banking, and public administration.
Annex I: UN Convention on Climate Change Annex I countries: Germany, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cana-da, Croatia, Denmark, Spain, Estonia, United States of America, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom.
ATEE: Association Technique Energie Environnement, a French association of energy and environmental operators (institutional, private, etc…).
Aviation and marine bunker oils: Marine bunker oils are the duty-free fuels for ocean vessels and aviation bunker oils are the aircraft fuels consumed for international transport. At country level, they are excluded from primary consumption and are considered to be exports. At global level, they are included in primary consumption.
Biogas: a gas resulting from the fermentation, also called me-thanisation, of organic matter (animal or plant) in the absence of oxygen. It consists primarily of methane (from 50% to 70%), but usually also carbon dioxide, water vapour, hydrogen sulphide, etc. The energy produced by biogas solely comes from methane.
Biomethane: a biogas whose undesired components have been removed (carbon dioxide, water vapour, hydrogen sulphide, etc.), so that methane only remains. Methane’s properties are similar to those of natural gas. Biomethane can be handled in natural gas distribution and transport networks.
Bituminous coal: Type of coal transformed into coke.
CAPEX-OPEX: Operating expense (often abbreviated as OPEX) is the ongoing cost for running a product, business, or system. Its counterpart, capital expenditure (CAPEX), is the cost of de-veloping or providing non-consumable parts for the product or system.
CEA: Commissariat à l’énergie anomique (French Atomic Energy Commission)
CEDIGAZ: International association of manufacturers for gas (GDF SUEZ is a member).
CERA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
CH4: Methane, a hydrocarbon with a global warming potential 25
times greater than that of CO2.
Change in inventories: In principle, these are the changes in in-ventory levels between two identical dates one year apart. The in-ventories are those of the energy producers and generally exclude consumer inventories. However, depending on the measurement methods adopted by each country, these changes in inventories represent real data or may include statistical deviations or non-me-tering between the primary supply and the inputs transformed or consumed. The + sign indicates a decrease in inventories during the year; the - sign indicates an increase in inventories during the year. Changes in inventories that systematically have the same sign are an indication of accounting distortions or poor allocation.
CI: Cost Insurance Freight. CIF price, in contrast to FOB price, includes shipping costs, and the various taxes and insurance; the seller is responsible for the merchandise up to the port of arrival.
CIS: Community of Independent States, composed of 11 of the 15 former Soviet Republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Moldavia, Russia, Federation of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan (Associate State), Ukraine, Uzbekistan - Mongolia as an observer.
Coke: Transformed coal used primarily in making steel.
Coking plants and blast furnaces: The inputs of coking plants are the coking coal consumed by coking plants. The inputs of blast furnaces are the coke consumed.
Coking plants, briquette plants: The inputs of coking plants are the coking coal consumed by coking plants. The inputs of blast furnaces are the coke consumed. The outputs of coking plants are coke and coking gas. The outputs of the blast furnaces are the blast furnace gases.
DEP: Department of Exploration Production.
DGEMP: Department of Energy and Raw Materials (Direction Générale de l’Energie et des Matières Premières).
DFO: Domestic fuel oil (home heating oil).
Domestic consumption: Domestic consumption, for each en-ergy product, is the balance of the total production, foreign trade, air and marine bunker oils (for oil) and changes in inventories.
EIA-DOE: Energy Information Agency - Department of Energy (USA).
Electric power plants: The inputs of electric power plants cor-respond (for thermal plants) to the consumption of fuels by the power plants. The production of the electric power plants corres-ponds to the gross production.
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
155
Glossary
Electric power plants (thermal): The inputs of electricity power plants are the fuels consumed by public plants and by self-produ-cers (including co-generation).
Electricity production: Gross electricity production including public production (private and public power companies) and the self-producers, by any type of power plant (including co-gene-ration).
Electricity production from co-generation: Gross production of electricity by power plants that produce electricity and heat (power companies and self-producers).
Energy sector self-consumption: Consumption to run energy transformation units (power plants, refineries).
ENTSO-E: European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity.
EU: The European Union has since 1 July 2013 28 Member States: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithua-nia, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, United Kingdom, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden. The accession of Croatia is effective July 1, 2013 and confirms the prospects of enlargement in the Balkans started nine years earlier. The EU has a total of over 500 million people and covers an area of 3,930,000 km2.
Exploration and development cost: The average cost of ex-ploration and development represents the dollar cost per barrel equivalent of additional reserves of a country coming from explo-ration activities, discoveries, improved recovery or update assess-ments. This cost does not include the licensing of proven reserves
Exports: Exports are the volumes of energy product exported from the national territory to another country, minus simple transit volumes and volumes “custom” processed on behalf of a third
party country. In the case of geographic or geopolitical regions, exports are the aggregates of national exports, including those that are part of flows within the region. For accounting consisten-cy, exports appear with a negative sign.
Final consumption: Final consumption is the balance between the interior consumption and consumption from the energy trans-formations and various losses. It measures the needs of the end consumers in the country. They are broken down by category as follows: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture and non-energy uses. Final consumption of industry is broken down by business line or sector: steel, chemical, non metallic minerals (construction materials), and so on.
Final consumption for non-energy uses: This is the consump-tion of the products intended for petrochemicals (naphtha), the fabrication of ammonia (natural gas), use in electrode (carbon) form and the use of all products used for their physical-chemical properties (bitumen, paraffins, motor oils, etc.). They are divided into chemicals and other.
FOB: Free On Board. FOB price, in contrast to CIF price, does not include any transport cost, tax or insurance.
Forward price: Forward = forward price - given for different ex-pirations.
Fugitive emissions: Intentional and non-intentional greenhouse gas emissions, from the extraction of a fossil fuel up to the point of use.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product: Measurement of the economic activity of a country; it is currently measured at market prices. GDP at market price is the sum of the value added to the cost of factors, plus indirect taxes, minus subsidies.
GHG: Greenhouse Gases.
Henry Hub: Point of determination of the prices of the gas traded on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange).
HFC: Hydrofluorocarbon (a category of fluorinated gases that actively contribute to the deterioration of the ozone layer, with a global warming potential 3,000 times greater than that of CO
2).
IEA: International Energy Agency.
IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Imports: Imports are the volumes of energy product imported from another country into the national territory, minus the vo-lumes that are transiting to a third party country and the quanti-ties intended to be “custom” processed on behalf of a third party country. In the case of geographic or geopolitical regions, imports are the aggregates of the national imports, including those that are flows within the region.
Industry final consumption: Industry final consumption in-cludes the consumption of the mining, manufacturing and construction sectors. They exclude the consumption of fuel for transport activities, even when the means of transport belong to the industrial companies, and the consumption of fuels for the self-production of electricity. The energy products used as raw materials or maintenance products are in general separate, or at least identified under the name “non-energy uses.”
LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas.
Light Tight Oil (Tight Oil): Light tight oil or tight oil is a type of oil present in relatively impermeable, non-porous layers and requires extraction techniques similar to those of shale gas. Tight oil primarily differs from shale oil in its degree of viscosity and is found in particular in the Niobrara and Eagle Ford formations in the United States.
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
156
Glossary
Lignite: A type of low-carbon coal with a low calorific value.
Liquefaction (of gas): The inputs of gas liquefaction plants are na-tural gas consumptions. The production of liquid gas is the output.
LPG: Liquefied Petroleum Gas.
ULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, with impli-cations for CO
2, CH
4 and N
2O emissions and capture. The notion
covers tree felling and planting, woodland conversion (clearing) and prairies as well as soils whose carbon content is sensitive to the use to which it is put (forest, prairie, cultivated).
Marginality: In the production of electricity, the duration of marginality represents the time when the production method used is the one with the lowest marginal cost (cost of an additional unit).
Mbl: Million barrels.
MMBtu: 1,000,000 Btu (1 million Btus).
NBP: National Balancing Point is a virtual trading location for the sale and purchase and exchange of UK. It serves as a reference for forward contracts.
Net production (electricity): The net production of electricity is the balance between gross production and the auto-consumption of electric power plants.
Nitrogen oxide: NO, nitrogen oxide.
NO2: Nitrogen dioxide.
N2O: Nitrogen protoxide (also known as nitrous oxide) with the
chemical formula N2O is a powerful greenhouse gas that remains
in the atmosphere for a long time (about 120 years). It is partially responsible for the destruction of the ozone. The soil and oceans are the principal natural sources of this gas, but it is also produced by the use of nitrogen fertilizers, the combustion of organic matter and fossil fuels, the production of nylon, etc. In France, farming
contributes to the 3 / 4 of N2O emissions that essentially come from
the transformation of nitrogen products (fertilizer, manure, liquid manure, crop residues) in farm land. N
2O is a colorless and non-
flammable gas, stable in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but it decomposes in the higher levels (stratosphere) through chemical reactions involving sunlight.
Non-conventional gases: Like the gas known as “conventional”, “non-conventional gases” are essentially composed of methane, but are trapped in relatively impermeable rock, which until recently had limited their development. In fact, extraction requires production technologies that are much more complex than for traditional reservoirs.
Non-conventional oils: Oil extracted by methods other than from a well (in oil sands, for example).
OECD: Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. Member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Korea, ,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
Particulate Matter: Particles in suspension (PM 2.5 corresponds to the fine particles that can enter the pulmonary alveoli).
PFC: Perfluorocarbon (category of fluorinated gases, with a global warming power on average 7500 times greater than that of CO
2).
Primary consumption: Primary consumption is the balance from primary production, foreign trade, bunker oils, and changes in inventories. Primary consumption aggregated over all products measures the country’s total energy consumption, including all losses and self-consumption during transformations. For primary energies, primary consumption = domestic consumption.
Primary production: Primary production measures the quantity of natural energy resource extracted and produced for the purpose of consumption as is, on the production site or elsewhere, or for subsequent transformations. It excludes the quantities not use for energy or transformation purposes, particularly for natural gas, the quantities flared, reinjected into wells or discharged as is. On the other hand, it includes auto-consumption on the production sites (electricity generation, auxiliary motors, for example). The production of hydraulic, geothermal, wind and nuclear electricity is considered to be primary production.
Private consumption: Total consumption of goods and services in monetary units by households.
Production: Energy production corresponds to gross domestic production. It measures the volume of energy product produced directly or resulting from a transformation process, including the volume reused in the transformation process itself (hence the concept of gross production).
Production cost: The average production cost is the average lifting cost of oil and gas from the reservoir to the shipping interface towards the processing center.
Power generation from cogeneration: Gross production of electricity by power plants that produce electricity and heat (power companies and self-producers).
Public production (electricity): The public production of electricity is the gross production of electricity production companies, whatever their status (public or private).
Pumping: Pumping station inputs are their electricity consumption. The output is the gross production of hydroelectricity.
RES: Renewable energy sources.
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
157
Glossary
Residential-services-agriculture consumption: This includes all the final consumptions from energy products used for energy purposes, excluding the consumption of industry and transport. They are divided into three categories: residential, services, agriculture (including fishing).
Reserves: oil reserves are termed possible, probable or proven, according to the degree of certainty of their existence in the light of geological and technical data and interpretations for each location. Oil reserves derive primarily from a measure of geological risk, i.e. the probability of oil being present and of its exploitation in current economic and technical conditions.
Proven reserves: gas and oil resources whose extraction is “reasonably certain” using existing techniques, at current prices and under current trade and government agreements. In the industry they are known as 1P. Some specialists refer to them as P90, as they have a 90% probability of being put into production.
Probable reserves: gas and oil resources whose extraction is “reasonably probable” using existing techniques, at current prices and under current trade and government agreements. In the industry they are known as 2P. Some specialists refer to them as P50, as they have a 50% probability of being put into production.
Possible reserves: gas and oil resources with a chance of extraction in favourable circumstances. In the industry they are known as 3P. Some specialists refer to them as P10, as they have a 10% probability of being put into production.
Self-production (electricity): Self-production of electricity is the gross production of businesses whose main activity is not electricity production.
SF6: Sulfur hexafloride (greenhouse gas with a global warming
potential 22,800 times greater than that of CO2). SF
6 is used in
metallurgy for the production of aluminum and magnesium, in the
fabrication of semi-conductors (because of its inert character and its density, which maintain the purity of the medium against dust and oxidizing elements), in electric construction (electric stations (Gas Insulated Substation) and high-voltage electrical equipment because of its high dielectric rigidity and its good stability in elec-tric arc), in particle accelerators, and in medical applications (for example, for disinfecting respiratory equipment against aerobic microbes).
SO2: Sulfur dioxide. Sulfur dioxide is used as a disinfectant, anti-
septic and antibacterial as well as a coolant gas, a whitening agent and food preservative (particularly for dry fruits), in the production of alcoholic beverages and, more specifically, in oenology and wine making.
Spot price: Spot prices are prices negotiated the day before for delivery the following day. They reflect the short-term balance between supply and demand.
Sulfur dioxide: In industry, sulfur dioxide is used particularly for the production of sulfuric acid. Sulfuric acid has numerous ap-plications and is the most-used chemical product. Atmospheric pollution by sulfur dioxide from industry is mainly the result of fossil fuel combustion.
Sulphur dioxide: Sulfur dioxide.
Trade balance: Marine bunker oils are the duty-free fuels for ocean vessels and aviation bunker oils are the aircraft fuels consu-med for international transport. At country level, they are excluded from primary consumption and are considered to be exports. At global level, they are included in primary consumption.
Transport / Distribution losses: Quantity of energy lost during transport and distribution.
Toe: Ton of oil equivalent.
Transport final consumption: Transport final consumption is the consumption by all transport methods, whatever the ownership status or type of use. However, it excludes “air and marine bunker oils.” Generally, transport consumption includes the consumption of infrastructures (railway stations, airports, etc.), pleasure boats and consumption by port machinery. They are divided into the four main infrastructures: road transport, rail transport, inland wa-terways, air transport.
Refineries: Refinery inputs are crude oil, natural gas liquids, and various products to be refined. The outputs are the refined products. The production from refineries is the gross production (including the uses made by the refineries).
Troll-Zeebrugge: LNG terminal and the connection point for Eu-ropean gas infrastructures where a spot price for the gas is set.
WEO: World Energy Outlook, a forward-looking report on energy in the world; annual publication of the IEA.
CONVERSIONS & GLOSSAIRE
159 NATURAL GAS
BGGL – Economy & Valuation (SEV) Strategy & Outlook: Alda Engoian
Natural Gas Supplies: Ovarith Troeung
BGGL – LNG Department: Laurent David
GDF SUEZ Trading: Paul Raymond
ELECTRICITY
DS – EPM: Philippe Saintes, Mark Rixon
OIL
DS – EPM: Xavier Mallet
COAL
DS – CEEME – SEER: Didier Strebelle
RES
LABORELEC: Magali Gontier
CO2
DS – CEEME – SEER: Aurélien Lecaille
Communication Department – Sustainable Development: Christine Faure-Fédigan
PRICES
GDF SUEZ Trading: Paul Raymond
COSTS
BGGL – E&P Department: Asma Lahjibi
FOCUS FRANCE
BEE – France – Strategy Department: Marie Suchard, Ines Dassonville
DS – Natural Gas Program: Michel Le-Men
GrDF – Strategy and Territories Department: Marie-Laure Charlot, Anthony Mazzenga
Institutional Relations Department: Mercedes Fauvel-Bantos, Étienne Giron
With the collaboration of Paul Dolléans, Strategy Department – Economics, Prices and Markets
ContactsProduction Strategy Department (DS)Adeline Duterque, Director of Economics, Prices and Markets
Brigitte Cottet, Senior Analyst, Economics, Prices and Markets
ContributionsThis document is based on contributions from experts within the ENGIE Group
We thank them for the information, analyses and corrections that they have provided
Do not hesitate to send your comments and questions to: Brigitte Cottet – ENGIE – [email protected] Department – Economics, Prices and Markets – 1, Place Samuel de Champlain, Faubourg de l’Arche – 92930 Paris La Défense Cedex – France
Strategy Department – Economics, Prices and Markets
1, Place Samuel de Champlain, Faubourg de l’Arche - BP 2956
92930 Paris La Défense Cedex – France
www.engie.com
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A World of Energy 2015
Edition No.6 Published in November 2015 on the website www.engie.com
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