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THE ADVISORY BOARD FOR DEFENCE INFORMATION
Bulletins and reports
November, 2018
1/20
18
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
ABDI (MTS)
Helsinki 2018
Finn s opinions on foreign and security policyThe Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)
ABDI Bulletins and reports November, 1/2018
Ministry of Defence
ISBN Nid.: 978-951-663-032-1
ISBN PDF: 978-951-663-033-8
Layout: Government Administration Unit, Publications
Helsinki 2018
FOREWORD
A survey commissioned by the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) ex-plored the opinions of Finnish people on Finnish foreign and security policy as well as defence policy. The survey also included questions on factors affecting safety and citizens’ sense of security, developments over the next five years and factors giving rise to concern. This year’s survey also included a new question about the ex-port of defence materiel. The survey consisted of 18 questions in total, one of which was asked for the first time.
Commissioned by the ABDI, the survey was carried out by market research com-pany Taloustutkimus Oy. The study was conducted as a part of omnibus research in the form of personal interviews. Interviews were carried out with a total of 1,034 individuals. The majority of interviews were conducted at the interviewees’ homes, while 313 individuals were interviewed in reception halls. The target group of the study comprised the entire population between the ages of 15 and 79, with the ex-ception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling in which the target group’s quotas were the distribution of age, gender, province and munic-ipality. The interviews were conducted in 89 localities, 54 of which were cities and the remaining 35 other municipality types. The sample was weighted to match the target group. The weighted N values correspond to the population aged 15 to 79 in thousands (SVT 31 December 2017).
The interviews were conducted on 21 September–7 October 2018. The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points.
When interpreting background variables related to party affiliation, it must be taken into account that the margin of error regarding the large parties is smaller, which
enables the collection of more reliable information on these when compared to smaller parties whose supporters are numerically fewer in the sample.
Party affiliation was ascertained by asking the following question: “Which party would you vote for if parliamentary elections were held now?” Of all of the respond-ents, 68 per cent (699 persons) revealed their party affiliation, while 32 per cent (335) declined to do so. In 2017, the corresponding numbers were 67 per cent and 33 per cent.
The report comprises a text section with illustrating figures that also present the time sequence of the questions asked in previous surveys. These illustrations were prepared by Taloustutkimus Oy. Some of the questions represent a continu-ous sequence since 1964. The questions were drawn up by the research and work branches of the ABDI. The research branch compiled the report for the work branch.
The data from this survey, like that of the previous surveys, are stored in the Finnish Social Science Data Archive at the University of Tampere (www.fsd.uta.fi).
The ABDI’s survey reports are available in Finnish, Swedish and English on the AB-DI’s home page (www.defmin.fi/mts).
In Sweden, the ‘Myndighet för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap’ (MSB) conducts simi-lar surveys. Their most recent report was published in January 2017 and can be ac-cessed here: https://www.msb.se/sv/Produkter--tjanster/Publikationer/Publikation-er-fran-MSB/Opinioner-2017--allmanhetens-syn-pa-samhallsskydd-beredskap-sak-erhetspolitik-och-forsvar/
Also in Norway, the ‘Folk og Forsvar’ conducts annual surveys on security and de-fence policy; their most recent report was published in August 2018. It can be accessed here: http://www.folkogforsvar.no/meningsmalinger/meningsmalin-ger-2018
The survey reports published by the ABDI are in the public domain. When referring to them, reference must be made stating that the data come from a survey con-ducted by the ABDI.
Contents
Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 7Decrease in will to defend the nation.............................................................................................. 9Personal will to defend the nation remains strong ..................................................................... 11Support for general conscription has declined from last year .................................................. 11Current general conscription model still viewed as best for Finland’s defence system ..... 13General civic service sees an increase in popularity .................................................................... 14Women less confident in the management of foreign policy ................................................... 14Support for military non-alignment remains unchanged ......................................................... 15Increased uncertainty about Finland’s NATO membership ........................................................ 16Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchanged ............................... 16Decrease in sense of insecurity .......................................................................................................... 17Finland’s participation in Nordic and EU defence cooperation increases the security of Finland and Finns ............................................................................................................. 18The European Union, the UN and the OSCE have positive effects on Finland’s security .... 19Decreased confidence in the management of defence policy .................................................. 20Support for export of defence materiel under current regulations ......................................... 21Finland’s defence cooperation viewed positively ......................................................................... 22Military situation in Finland’s surroundings not expected to change .................................... 22Decline in support for increased defence appropriations ......................................................... 23Climate change, international terrorism and the global refugee situation cause the greatest concern .................................................................................................................................................... 24Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019.......................................................................................... 26Branch-specific .................................................................................................................................... 26Chairs of the ABDI ................................................................................................................................. 26Secretariat of the ABDI ........................................................................................................................ 26
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
7
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Introduction
The ABDI’s opinion survey for 2018 reveals changes in the answers to many ques-tions compared to the previous year. When it comes to certain questions, the changes are quite significant. This survey does not speculate on the causes of the changes. Future surveys will reveal the direction of development of the changes that are now visible.
In this year’s survey, two thirds of respondents or 66 per cent gave a positive answer concerning the will to defend the nation. This represents a decrease of six per cent compared to the previous year. The last time the rate of positive responses fell be-low 70 per cent was 29 years ago in 1989, when 67 per cent answered the question in the affirmative.
The current general conscription system is supported by three quarters of respond-ents, or 74 per cent. Compared to last year, support has dropped by seven percent-age points. The most significant decrease in support could be seen among respond-ents aged 15–34. The last time such a result was obtained was in 2015.
For the third time now, the ABDI asked for respondents’ views on general civic ser-vice for both men and women, which could be completed as civil or military service. More than half, or 55 per cent, viewed such a model as positive, while one third had negative views and the rest had no opinion. Since 2010, views on this model have become more positive.
Three quarters of respondents, or 75 per cent, feel that defence policy is managed well. Women’s confidence in the way defence policy is being managed weakened by eight percentage points compared to last year, while men’s confidence remained unchanged.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
A total of 70 per cent have positive views on the handling of foreign policy. Wom-en’s confidence in the handling of foreign policy decreased by six per cent com-pared to last year, while men’s confidence remained unchanged.
A total of 59 per cent have negative views of Finland’s NATO membership, while the corresponding figure for last year was 62 per cent. One fifth of respondents, or 20 per cent, are in favour of Finland joining NATO; a year ago that figure was 22 per cent. One fifth, or 21 per cent, had no opinion on this question, compared to 17 per cent last year.
A new question this year concerned exports of defence materiel by Finnish compa-nies. One half of respondents, or 49 per cent, felt that the export of defence materiel should continue in line with the current practices and regulations. Nearly one third of respondents (31 per cent) and more than a third of women (39 per cent) were in favour of more stringent criteria for granting export permits.
Two thirds, or 65 per cent, feel the European Union has a positive effect on Finland’s security. The figure for the previous year was 60 per cent. Nearly the same number of respondents, or 64 per cent, feel the UN has a positive effect on Finland’s security, compared to 61 per cent last year.
The greatest cause for concern among respondents was climate change, with nine out of ten respondents now expressing concern, compared with 75 per cent last year.
9
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Decrease in will to defend the nationTwo thirds of respondents, or 66 per cent (72% in 2017), feel that if Finland is at-tacked, Finns must defend themselves by military means in all situations, even if the outcome is uncertain. This view was expressed by 70 per cent (79%) of men and 62 per cent (66%) of women.
Among respondents younger than 25 years of age, 49 per cent (66% in 2017) held this view, compared with 62 per cent (66%) of 25–34-year-olds, 69 per cent (73%) of 35–40-year-olds and 72 per cent (76%) of 50–79-year-olds.
Eighty percent (73% in 2017) of Centre Party supporters answered this question in the affirmative, as did 73 per cent (82%) of Finns Party supporters, 71 per cent (68%) of SDP supporters, 65 per cent (80%) of Coalition Party supporters, 55% (67%) of Left Alliance supporters and 36 per cent (65%) of Green Party supporters.
A total of 23 per cent (22% in 2017) of respondents answered the question in the negative, or 23 per cent (25%) of women and 22 per cent (19%) of men.
Thirty-eight per cent of respondents under 25 years of age (28% in 2017) held this view, along with 28 per cent (28%) of 25–34-year-olds, 19 per cent (23%) of 35–49-year-olds and 18 per cent (17%) of 50–79-year-olds.
Forty-nine per cent of Green Party supporters answered in the negative (29% in 2017), as did 30 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (24%), 24 per cent of Coalition Party supporters (18%), 21 per cent of Finns Party and SDP supporters (15% and 25%, respectively) and 15 per cent of Centre Party supporters (24%).
A total of 11 per cent (6% in 2017), or 14 per cent (10%) of women and eight per cent (2%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 1 and 2)
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 2A and 2B: The will to defend the nation
Yes -answers
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Whole population Women Men
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Whole population Under 25 years 25-34 yearsYes -answers
40
50
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"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defendthemselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
11
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Personal will to defend the nation remains strongWhen asked ‘Would you be ready to take part in national defence duties to the best of your abilities?’ eighty-four per cent (87% in 2017) answered in the affirmative, or 89 per cent (90%) of men and 80 per cent (84%) of women.
A total of ten per cent (10% in 2017) answered in the negative, with 13 per cent (13%) of women and seven per cent (8%) of men expressing this view. Six per cent (3%) had no opinion. (Figures 3 and 4)
Support for general conscription has declined from last yearThe current system of general conscription for men enjoys support from three quar-ters or 74 per cent (81% in 2017) of respondents, or 75 per cent (80%) of women and 72 per cent (81%) of men. Eighty-four per cent (88%) of those over 50 years of age feel this way, as do 75 per cent (76%) of those between 35 and 49, 58 per cent (71%) of those between 25 and 34 and 56 per cent (77%) of respondents between 25 and 34.
Ninety-one percent (97% in 2017) of Centre Party supporters answered this question in the affirmative, along with 81 per cent (84% and 77%, respectively) of SDP and Finns Party supporters, 77 per cent (84%) of Coalition Party supporters, 55 per cent (67%) of Left Alliance supporters and 51 per cent (67%) of Green Party supporters.
When asked if they would be in favour of more selective military service, 13 per cent answered in the affirmative (9% in 2017), or 13 per cent (9%) of men and 12 per cent (9%) of women. Of those younger than 25 years of age, 21 per cent (10%) support this model, as do 20 per cent (11%) of 25–34-year-olds, 13 per cent (10%) of 35–49-year-olds and seven per cent (8%) of respondents over 50.
Increased selectiveness is supported by 28 per cent (13% n 2017) of Green Party supporters, 21 per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters, 15 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, 12 per cent (8%) of Coalition Party supporters, seven per cent (7%) of Finns Party supporters and three per cent (2%) of Centre Party supporters.
Nine per cent (9% in 2017) are in favour of switching to professional armed forces, with 11 per cent (8%) of men and eight per cent (9%) of women taking this view. Support for a professional army was expressed by 17 per cent (18%) of Green Party supporters, 16 per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters, eleven per cent (8%) of Finns Party supporters, eight per cent (8%) of Coalition Party supporters, six per cent (0%) of Centre Party supporters and three per cent (6%) of SDP supporters. Four per cent (1% in 2017) had no opinion. (Figures 5 and 6)
12
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 6A and 6B: General conscription
conscription"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence providesmilitary training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selectiveconscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
Retain the current system
Autumn 2003
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Whole population Women Men
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Whole population Under 25 years 25-34 yearsRetain the current system
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13
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Current general conscription model still viewed as best for Finland’s defence systemFor the third time now, interviewees were asked what Finland’s defence system should be based on. The alternatives are as follows: 1) the present-day system where men are subject to general conscription and women can serve on a volun-tary basis; 2) general conscription for men and women alike; 3) voluntary military service for men and women and 4) fully professional armed forces.
More than half of respondents, or 59 per cent (65% in 2017), support the current conscription system, with 61 per cent (63%) of men and 57 per cent (66%) of women expressing this view. Of those over 50 years of age, 69 per cent (70%) feel this way, as do 60 per cent (65%) of respondents between 35 and 49 years of age and 45 per cent of both 25–34-year-olds and 15–24-year-olds (56% and 57%, respectively).
Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 82 per cent (87% in 2017) are in favour of the current system, along with 70 per cent (61%) of SDP supporters, 66 per cent (73%) of Coalition Party supporters, 60 per cent (68%) of Finns Party supporters 47 per cent (41%) of Green Party supporters and 34 per cent (55%) of Left Alliance supporters.
Seventeen per cent (16% in 2017) of respondents, or 18 per cent (15%) of women and 16 per cent (18%) of men, support conscription for men and women. The re-sponses to this question did not vary significantly based on age group.
Thirty-four per cent of Left Alliance supporters (17% in 2017) are in favour of con-scription for men and women, along with 16 per cent (28%) of Green Party support-ers, 15 per cent (16%) of Coalition Party supporters, 12 per cent of Centre Party and Finns Party supporters (8% and 14%, respectively) and 11 per cent (15%) of SDP supporters.
Thirteen per cent (11% in 2017) of the respondents feel the best model would be voluntary conscription for men and women alike, with 14 per cent (11%) of women and 12 per cent (10%) of men sharing this opinion.
This view was expressed by twenty-one per cent of the Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (22% and 12%, respectively), 16 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, 15 per cent (5%) of Finns Party supporters, nine per cent (6%) of Coalition Party sup-porters and one per cent (2%) of Centre Party supporters.
14
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Eight per cent are in favour of professional armed forces (7% in 2017), or 10 per cent (8%) of men and six per cent (7%) of women.
Three per cent of respondents (1% in 2017) had no opinion, or four per cent (1%) of women and one per cent (1%) of men. (Figure 7)
General civic service sees an increase in popularityIn 2008, 2010 and 2018, the ABDI asked the following question: “How would you feel if Finland switched to general civic service for men and women that could be com-pleted as either civil or military service?”
More than half of respondents, or 55 per cent (45% in 2010), have favourable views of general civic service, with 56 per cent (45%) of men and 53 per cent (44%) of women answering in the affirmative.
Sixty-four per cent of Finns Party and Green Party supporters (48% and 48%) view this idea favourably, along with 58 per cent (41%) of Left Alliance supporters, 55 per cent (48%) of SDP supporters and 52 per cent of Centre Party and Coalition Party supporters (39% and 41%, respectively).
One third of respondents, or 32 per cent (52% in 2010), have negative views on this model; the figure was the same for men (51%) and women (53%).
A total of 37 per cent (58%) of Coalition Party supporters expressed negative views, along with 36 per cent (59%) of Left Alliance supporters, 35 per cent (56%) of Centre Party supporters, 33 per cent (49%) of Finns Party supporters, 31 per cent (48%) of SDP supporters and 30 per cent (51%) of Green Party supporters.
Thirteen percent (3% in 2010), or 14 per cent (3%) of women and 12% (3%) of men, had no opinion. (Figure 8)
Women less confident in the management of foreign policySeventy per cent of the respondents (73% in 2017) think that Finnish foreign policy is managed well, with 75 per cent (73%) of men and 66 per cent (72%) of women taking this view.
15
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Of the supporters of the Coalition Party, 83 per cent (87%) think that Finnish for-eign policy is managed well, as do 82 per cent (91%) of Centre Party supporters, 81 per cent (75%) of SDP supporters, 67 per cent (82%) of Green Party supporters, 59% (50%) of Finns Party supporters and 51 per cent (71%) of Left Alliance supporters.
A total of 21 per cent (20% in 2017) feel that Finland’s defence policy is poorly man-aged; 21 per cent (18%) of women and 20 per cent (22%) of men. This view is shared by 35 per cent of Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (42% and 28%, respec-tively), 18 per cent (3%) of Centre Party supporters, 17 per cent (8%) of Green Party supporters, 17 per cent (23%) of SDP supporters and 11 per cent (11%) of Coalition supporters.
A total of nine per cent (7% in 2017), or 13 per cent (10%) of women and eight per cent (4%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 9 and 10)
Support for military non-alignment remains unchangedMore than half of the respondents, or 58 per cent (58 % in 2017), support Finland’s military non-alignment, with this view expressed by 63 per cent (59%) of men and 54 per cent (58%) of women.
Among respondents older than 35 years of age, 63 per cent (60% in 2017) support military non-alignment, as do 53 per cent (60%) of 25–34-year-olds and 42 per cent (49%) of persons under 25 years old.
Seventy-one per cent (69%) of SDP supporters support military non-alignment, along with 69 per cent (69%) of Centre Party supporters, 67 per cent (68%) of Left Alliance supporters, 54 per cent (70%) of Finns Party supporters, 50 per cent (37%) of Coalition Party supporters and 41 per cent (52%) of Green Party supporters.
One quarter of respondents, or 25% (29% in 2015), support Finland’s military non-alignment, with 27 per cent (32%) of men and 22 per cent (27%) of women tak-ing this view.
This view is shared by 36 per cent (35% in 2017) of respondents under 25 years of age, 24 per cent (25%) of 25–34-year-olds, 23 per cent (29%) of 35–49-year olds and 22 per cent (29%) of respondents over 50 years of age.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Thirty-eight per cent (31%) of Green Party supporters support military non-align-ment, as do 35 per cent (52%) of Coalition Party supporters, 25 per cent (24%) of Finns Party supporters, 24 per cent (19%) of Centre Party supporters, 18 per cent (26%) of SDP supporters and 16 per cent (29%) of Left Alliance supporters.
A total of 17 per cent (12% in 2017), or 24 per cent (16%) of women and ten per cent (9%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 11 and 12)
Increased uncertainty about Finland’s NATO membershipWhen asked if Finland should seek NATO membership, 59 per cent (62% in 2017) answered in the negative, with 62 per cent (63%) of men and 56 per cent (61%) of women expressing this view.
Seventy-eight per cent (81% in 2017) of Left Alliance supporters answered in the negative, as did 73 per cent (70%) of Centre Party supporters, 65 per cent (73%) of SDP supporters, 61 per cent (72%) of Finns Party supporters, 48 per cent (49%) of Green Party supporters and 43 per cent (41%) of Coalition Party supporters.
One fifth of respondents, or 20 per cent (22% in 2017) feel that Finland should seek NATO membership, with 25 per cent (26%) of men and 16 per cent (18%) of women responding in the affirmative.
Of the Coalition Party supporters, 37 per cent (44% in 2017) support membership in NATO, as do 23 per cent (15% and 26%, respectively) of SDP and Green Party supporters, 19 per cent (10%) of Finns Party supporters, 17 per cent (20%) of Centre Party supporters and six per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters.
One fifth of respondents, or 21 per cent (17% in 2017) had no opinion, with 28 per cent (22%) of women and 13 per cent (12%) of men taking this view. (Figures 13 and 14)
Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchangedThe ABDI asked interviewees about their confidence in the future of the Euro-pean Union in its 2005, 2016, 2017 and 2018 surveys. This year, more than half of respondents, or 58 per cent (58% in 2017), indicated that their support for the
17
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
European Union had remained unchanged, with 60 per cent (58%) of women and 57 per cent (58%) of men expressing this view.
This opinion was shared by 69 per cent (61% in 2017) of Green Party supporters, 66 per cent (58%) of SDP supporters, 65 per cent (62%) of Centre Party supporters, 62 per cent (58%) of Coalition Party supporters, 48 per cent (62%) of Left Alliance sup-porters and 37 per cent (45%) of Finns Party supporters.
One third, or 34 per cent (37% in 2017) of respondents feel that their confidence in the future of the European Union has weakened, with 36 per cent (38%) of men and 33 per cent (37%) of women expressing this opinion. This view is shared by 53 per cent (53%) of Finns Party supporters, 44 per cent (37%) of Left Alliance supporters, 32 per cent of Centre Party and Coalition Party supporters (38% and 33%, respec-tively), 29 per cent (34%) of SDP supporters and 25 per cent (33%) of Green Party supporters.
Four percent (3% in 2017) feel their confidence in the future of the European Union has strengthened, with five per cent (4%) of men and three per cent (2%) of women taking this view.
Three per cent (1% in 2017), or four per cent (2%) of women and two per cent (1%) of men, had no opinion. (Figure 15)
Decrease in sense of insecurityAround half of respondents, or 49 per cent (60% in 2017), believe that Finland and Finns will be living in a more insecure world over the next five years when com-pared to today. This view was held by 56 per cent (68%) of women and 42 per cent (52%) of men.
Some differences could be seen between different age groups, with middle-aged and older respondents viewing the future as somewhat less secure than younger ones. A total of 54 per cent (58%) of respondents between 35 and 49 years of age view the future as insecure, as do 52 per cent (61%) of respondents aged 50–79 years, while 48 per cent (63%) of respondents aged 25–34 years and 33 per cent (56%) of those younger than 25 expressed this view.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Just under one fifth of respondents, or 18 per cent (14% in 2017) view the future as more secure, with 20 per cent (18%) of men and 15 per cent (10%) of women ex-pressing this view. This view is shared by 26 per cent (16%) of respondents under 25 years of age, 19 per cent (22%) of 25–24-year-olds, 17 per cent (10%) of 50-79-year olds and 12 per cent (16%) of 35-49-year olds
Just under one third of respondents, or 31 per cent (25% in 2017) saw no difference compared to the present, with 35 per cent of men (29%) and 27 per cent of women (20%) giving this response. (Figures 16 and 17)
Finland’s participation in Nordic and EU defence cooperation increases the security of Finland and FinnsStarting from 2004, the ABDI has asked a question listing 15 different factors for the respondents to assess based on whether they believe that they improve or weaken the security of Finland and the Finnish people or have no effect at all.
Factors that are believed to improve security are the following: Finland’s participation in Nordic defence cooperation; 81 per cent of respondents (83% in 2017) felt it increased security, one per cent (1%) said it decreased security and 12 per cent (13%) said it had no effect.
Finland’s participation in organising the European Union’s defence cooperation; 72 per cent (70%) said it increased security, four per cent (6%) said it decreased secu-rity and 17 per cent (20%) said it had no impact.
Finland’s membership in the European union; 62 per cent (62%) felt it increased security, nine per cent (11%) said it decreased security and 25 per cent (25%) said it had no effect.
Finland’s increasing international economic interaction; 59 per cent (52%) said it had a positive effect on security, six per cent (6%) felt the effect was negative and 29 per cent (37%) felt it had no impact at all.
Finland’s participation in international crisis management duties; 50 per cent (51%) felt it increased security, 10 per cent (9%) felt it decreased security and 34 per cent (36%) felt it had no effect.
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FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Finland’s military non-alignment; 46 per cent (46%) felt it had a positive impact, 17 per cent felt (16%) felt the impact was negative and 25 per cent (30%) felt it had no impact.
Finland’s possible NATO membership; 25 per cent (29%) said would increase secu-rity, 40 per cent (42%) felt it would decrease security and 19 per cent (17%) felt it would have no effect on security.
Increasing share of foreign ownership in the Finnish economy; eight per cent (8%) felt it increased security; 62 per cent (49%) felt it had a decreasing effect and 22 (37%) felt it had no impact. (Figures 18, 19, 20 and 21)
The European Union, the UN and the OSCE have positive effects on Finland’s securityInterviewees were asked to assess the effects of the EU, the OSCE, China, NATO, Rus-sia, the United States and the UN on Finland’s security. The question was asked for the seventh time this year, and for the first time, respondents felt that the European Union had a more positive impact on Finland’s security than the UN. Respondents’ views on the impact of both the EU and the UN have become more positive since last year.
When asked if the European Union had a positive effect on Finland’s security, 65 per cent (60% in 2017) agreed with the statement, while 14 per cent (16%) felt it did not impact security at all and 12 per cent (13%) felt the impact was both positive and negative. Five per cent (3%) viewed the European Union’s impact as negative.
When asked about the effects of the United Nations (UN) on Finland’s security, 64 per cent (61% in 2017) said they were positive. One fifth of respondents, or 19 per cent (23%), felt the UN had no impact on Finland’s security, while eight per cent (9%) felt the impact was both positive and negative, and one per cent (3%) viewed it as negative.
When asked about the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE, 47 per cent (44% in 2017) felt it had a positive impact on Finland’s security, while one fifth or 21 per cent (26%) did not see any impact and 20 per cent (11%) felt its impact was both positive and negative.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Regarding the effects of NATO on Finland’s security, 26 per cent (25% in 2017) felt they were negative, 26 per cent (30%) viewed them as both positive and negative and 24 per cent (24%) felt they were positive. A total of 13 per cent (13% in 2016) felt NATO had no impact on Finland’s security.
When asked about the impact of the United States on Finland’s security, 32 per cent of respondents (35% in 2017) felt it was both positive and negative, 27 per cent (22%) viewed it as negative, 18 per cent (16%) viewed it as positive and 14 per cent (21%) did not feel the United States had any impact on Finland’s security.
Concerning the impact of Russia, 39 per cent of respondents (37% in 2017) viewed it as negative, 30 per cent (31%) felt it was both positive and negative, 13 per cent (14%) viewed it as positive and 11 per cent (13%) felt Russia had no impact on Fin-land’s security.
Just over one third of respondents, or 35 per cent (44% in 2017), felt that China had no impact on the security of Finland, while 21 per cent (22%) viewed its impact as both positive and negative. Sixteen per cent (11%) felt China had a negative impact and 12 per cent (13%) felt its impact was positive. (Figures 22 and 23)
Decreased confidence in the management of defence policy Three quarters of respondents, or 75 per cent (79% in 2017), feel Finland’s defence policy is managed well, with 78 per cent (79%) of men and 73 per cent (81%) of women taking this view. Eighty-one per cent (74%) of those between 35 and 49 years of age feel this way, as do 79 per cent (86%) of those over 50 years of age, 67 per cent (74%) of those between 25 and 34 and 65 per cent (78%) of respondents younger than 25.
Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 93 per cent (87% in 2017) feel Finland’s de-fence policy is well managed, along with 85 per cent of Coalition Party and SDP supporters (90% and 79%, respectively), 67 per cent (83%) of Green Party support-ers, 61 per cent (76%) of Finns Party supporters and 50 per cent (76%) of Left Alli-ance supporters.
21
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Fourteen per cent (13% in 2017) of respondents feel Finland’s defence policy is poorly managed, with 16 per cent (16%) of men and 11 per cent (10%) of women expressing this view.
This view was shared by 28 per cent (21% in 2017) of Left Alliance supporters, 27 per cent (21%) of Finns Party supporters, 11 per cent (8%) of Green Party support-ers, 10 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, seven per cent (9%) of Coalition Party sup-porters and three per cent (6%) of Centre Party supporters.
A total of 11 per cent (7% in 2017), or 16 per cent (9%) of women and ten per cent (5%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 24 and 25)
Support for export of defence materiel under current regulationsThis year’s survey included a new question about the export of defence materiel manufactured by Finnish companies.
Half of respondents, or 49 per cent, felt that the export of defence materiel should continue in line with the current practices and regulations, with 59 per cent of men and 38 per cent of women taking this view.
This was the opinion of 62 per cent of Centre Party supporters, 58 per cent of Finns Party supporters, 57 per cent of SDP supporters, 55 per cent of Coalition Party sup-porters, 46 per cent of Green Party supporters and 19 per cent of Left Alliance sup-porters.
Slightly less than one third, or 31 per cent, feel that the criteria for granting export licences should be stricter, with 39 per cent of women and 23 per cent of men tak-ing this view.
Forty-eight per cent of Green Party supporters, 40 per cent of Left Alliance support-ers, 30 per cent of Centre Party supporters, 28 per cent of SDP supporters, 26 per cent of Coalition Party supporters and 13 per cent of Finns Party supporters were in favour of stricter criteria.
Five per cent of respondents, or eight per cent of men and three per cent of women, felt that all companies should be permitted to export defence materiel. This view
22
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
was shared by 18 per cent of Finns Party supporters, 10 per cent of Coalition Party supporters, eight per cent of Left Alliance supporters, two per cent of Centre Party supporters and one per cent of both SDP and Green party supporters.
Six per cent of respondents felt that the export of defence materiel should be pro-hibited altogether, with seven per cent of women and four per cent of men express-ing this view. This opinion was shared by 21 per cent of Left Alliance supporters, nine per cent of SDP supporters, seven per cent of Finns party supporters, two per cent of Coalition Party supporters and one per cent of Centre Party supporters. No Green Party supporters were in favour of prohibiting all defence materiel exports.
Nine per cent of respondents, or 14 per cent of women and five per cent of men, had no opinion. (Figures 26 and 27)
Finland’s defence cooperation viewed positivelyNinety-five per cent of respondents (94% in 2017) have a positive view on military cooperation with all Nordic countries. Ninety-four per cent (94%) have a positive view on cooperation with Sweden.
Nine out of ten respondents, or 90 per cent, have a positive view of Finland’s mili-tary cooperation with the European Union (89% in 2017).
Fifty-five percent (61%) of respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with NATO, while 35 per cent (32%) have a negative view.
The same number, fifty-five per cent (59%) of respondents, take a positive view on military cooperation with the United States, while 36 per cent (35%) view it nega-tively. (Figures 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32)
Military situation in Finland’s surroundings not expected to changeThe last time the ABDI asked interviewees about the military situation Finland’s surroundings over the next ten years was in the 2016 survey. Now the question was asked for the seventh time.
23
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Nearly half of respondents, or 48 per cent, feel that the military situation in Finland’s surroundings over the next ten year will remain about the same as it is now (48% in 2016), with 52 per cent of men (54%) and 45 per cent (43%) of women taking this view.
This opinion was shared by 59 per cent of SDP supporters (50% in 2016), 54 per cent of Coalition Party supporters (50%), 53 per cent of Finns Party supporters (40%), 48 per cent of Green Party supporters (53%), 47 per cent of Centre Party supporters (47%) and 37 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (56%).
Forty-one per cent of respondents (44% in 2016), or 47 per cent (49%) of women and 35 per cent (40%) of men, felt the situation would become more threatening over the next ten years. This view was expressed by 52 per cent of Left Alliance sup-porters (31% in 2016), 44 per cent of Centre Party supporters (47%), 41 per cent of Coalition Party supporters, 40 per cent of Green Party supporters (42%), 37 per cent of Finns Party supporters (51%) and 33 per cent of SDP supporters (49%).
Six per cent of respondents (5% in 2016) felt that the military situation in Finland’s surroundings would become less threatening over the next ten years, with nine per cent of men (5%) and four per cent of women (5%) expressing this view.
Ten per cent of Finns Party supporters felt this way (8% in 2017, along with eight per cent of Centre Party and Left Alliance supporters (5% and 11%, respectively), six per cent of Green Party supporters (2%), five per cent of SDP supporters (1%) and two per cent of Coalition Party supporters (3%).
Four per cent (2% in 2016) had no opinion, with the same figure obtained for both women and men. (Figures 34 and 35)
Decline in support for increased defence appropriations Forty percent (47% in 2017) of the respondents support increasing defence appro-priations, with 48 per cent of men (51%) and 34 per cent of women (44%) express-ing this opinion.
Sixty-one per cent (55% in 2017) of Finns Party are in favour of increasing appropri-ations, as are 49 per cent (60%) of Coalition Party supporters, 45 per cent (60%) of
24
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Centre Party supporters, 41 per cent (41%) of SDP supporters, 28 per cent (32%) of Green Party supporters and 20 per cent (28%) of Left Alliance supporters.
Forty per cent (40% in 2017) are in favour of keeping defence appropriations at the current level, or 46 per cent (41%) of women and 34 per cent (38%) of men.
This view was held by 53 per cent of Centre Party supporters (37% in 2017), 47 per cent (42%) of SDP supporters, 45 per cent (48%) of Green Party supporters, 37 per cent (34%) of Coalition Party supporters, 35 (53%) of Left Alliance supporters and 21 per cent (35%) of Finns Party supporters.
A total of 12 per cent (8% in 2017) would decrease the amount of defence appropri-ations, with 15 per cent (9%) of men and nine per cent (7%) of women expressing this view.
Thirty-three per cent of Left Alliance supporters (17% in 2017) are in favour of de-creasing the amount, along with 22 per cent (13%) of Green Party supporters, 10 per cent of Coalition Party and Finns Party supporters (5% and 6%, respectively), six per cent of SDP supporters (13%) and two per cent (3%) of Centre Party supporters.
A total of seven per cent (5% in 2017) of respondents, or 10 per cent (8%) of women and four per cent (3%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 36 and 37)
Climate change, international terrorism and the global refugee situation cause the greatest concernThe ABDI has been asking interviewees about factors causing concern since 2004. The list has varied somewhat, but some of the factors have remained the same every year. A new factor added to this year’s survey was fake news reporting di-rected at Finland. The list consisted of 15 different phenomena or factors. In sum, it can be stated that respondents’ concerns about nearly all of the factors have increased since the 2017 survey. The strongest increase in concern could be seen when interviewees were asked about cyber threats (+16%), climate change (+14%) and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (+14%).
25
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Factors causing much or some concern:
− Climate change (global warming) 89 per cent (75% in 2017) − International terrorism 88 per cent (81% in 2017) − The global refugee situation 87 per cent (83% in 2017) − Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 82 per cent
(68% in 2017) − Political extremist movements 82 per cent (72% in 2017) − Threats against information networks (cyber threats) 79 per
cent (63% in 2017) − Racism 78 per cent (69% in 2017) − The situation in the Middle East 77 per cent (the situation in
Syria in 2017 64%) − Social inequality in Finland 76 per cent (67% in 2016) − The security situation in the Baltic Sea area 76 per cent (64%
in 2017) − Developments in the United States 72 per cent (63% in 2017) − Developments in Russia 71 per cent (63% in 2017) − The employment situation in Finland 71% (71% in 2017) − State-sponsored fake news reporting directed at Finland 62
per cent (new item in this year’s survey) − Development in the European Union 52% (52% in 2017)
(Figures 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42)
26
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019Chair Harriet Lonka, PhD
Deputy Chair Unto Vesa, Researcher Emeritus
Members Soili Haverinen, Doctoral Student of Theology
Anna Jungner-Nordgren, Public Relations Secretary
Johanna Kelhu, Parliamentary Secretary, MSocSc
Sari Rautio, Director of Unit as of 24 June 2018
Lieutenant Colonel Niclas von Bonsdorff, Director, Public Relations and International Affairs as of 6 September 2018
Antti Koskela, Expert in Economic Affairs
Esko Kurvinen, CEO
Anni Lahtinen, Secretary General
Juha Mäenpää, Vocational Special Needs Teacher
Timo Perälä, Senior Inspector
Jussi Salonranta, Analyst
Jenna Simula, Parliamentary Assistant, BBA
Heli Viiri, Doctor of Agriculture and Forestry, Special Researcher
Branch-specificExperts Teija Mankkinen, DSocSc, Head of Research and Development
Teemu Tallberg, PhD, Professor of Military Sociology
Chairs of the ABDI Chair Sofia Vikman, MP
Deputy Chair Petteri Leino, Special Adviser to the Minister of Defence
Deputy Chair Markku Pakkanen, MP
Secretariat of the ABDI Heli Santala, Secretary General
Markus Kinkku, Assistant Secretary General
27
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 1. The will to defend the nation
"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Yes Cannot say No
66
6270
49626972
706462
7461
626468
666369
80736571365576
11
148
12111211
101113
913
131511
101212
66
118
15157
23
2322
38281918
202525
1726
252122
232419
15212421493017
28
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 2. The will to defend the nation
"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1982In the year 1986In the year 1987In the year 1988In the year 1989In the year 1990
April 1991October 1991
In the year 1992In the year 1993In the year 1994
Autumn 1995Autumn 1996Autumn 1997
July 1998October 1998
June 1999November 1999December 2000
Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
667271787671767674747277777780737879817575777676798077757770757467617368674342
116855456646435266547756455767577
1311688
127
232221161925191820222219201718221716141818181820151517191625191920282124254551
Yes Cannot say No
29
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 3. The will to defend the country (personal level)
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
84
8089
75868885
828487
8889
757692
838586
92869183848087
6
75
13863
648
64
1092
666
1025
1277
10
137
1266
12
12125
67
15165
1188
7147
134
136
"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"
Yes Cannot say No
30
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 4. The will to defend the country (personal level)
November 1995
In the year 1996
In the year 1997
October 1998
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Yes Cannot say No
84
87
87
84
85
87
85
84
82
86
6
3
3
3
3
3
5
4
3
5
10
10
11
12
12
10
10
12
14
9
"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"
31
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 5. General conscription
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Retain thecurrent system
Reduce selectivelythe number of those
Cannotsay
Abolish generalconscription and
74
7572
56587584
787269
7271
717573
727675
91817781515581
13
1213
2120137
91516
1415
139
15
131212
37
1215282117
4
54
4653
436
34
733
427
0132471
9
811
191585
91010
1010
9129
1196
61183
17162
"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence providesmilitary training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reservepersonnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
professional armyreceiving military trainingchange over to a
32
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 6. General conscription
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
74817975756872636372747371787779807976
139
11131120172627161517191315119
1313
4112212211111102213
999
101211999
111099878877
"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence providesmilitary training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a largereserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
Retain thecurrent system
Reduce selectivelythe number of those
Cannotsay
Abolish generalconscription and
professional armyreceiving military trainingchange over to a
33
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 7. Finland's defence system
"In your view, should Finland's defence system be based on... "
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
59
5761
45456069
645257
5855
566059
556166
82606670473452
17
1816
17191617
171816
1919
181519
172111
12121511163434
13
1412
2124145
81815
1415
151712
167
13
1159
16212112
8
610
151285
889
711
769
1094
5692
1392
3
41
2124
332
21
521
225
0721321
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
The current system withgeneral conscription formen and voluntarymilitary service for women
The current system withgeneral conscription formen and voluntarymilitary service for women
General conscriptionfor both menand women
Voluntary militaryservice for bothmen and women
A professionalarmy
Cannotsay
59
65
69
17
16
11
13
11
14
8
7
6
3
1
1
General conscriptionfor both menand women
Voluntary militaryservice for bothmen and women
A professionalarmy
Cannotsay
34
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 8. General civic service
"Finland is instituting a general civic service for both men and women. The civic service could be completed as military or non-military service"
Autumn 2008Autumn 2010Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Positive Cannot say Negative
554542
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Positive Cannot say Negative
55
5356
61535354
545754
5852
545555
634943
52645255645860
13
1412
139
1315
17119
1110
139
11
101321
133
111466
12
32
3232
26383331
283237
3037
333634
273836
35333731303628
1338
325251
35
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 9. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
9
612
45
1111
9118
410
1249
9107
181014619
28
61
6063
62545965
566368
5764
536865
605867
63496975664257
9
134
181195
1158
114
1186
89
10
2652
16141
17
2013
16261813
171815
2319
201715
191513
16311017162413
4
17
1446
741
63
425
473
24101
111
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted inrecent years?"
36
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 10. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy beenconducted in recent years?"
In the year 1964In the year 1969In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1972In the year 1973In the year 1974In the year 1975In the year 1978In the year 1979In the year 1980In the year 1981In the year 1982In the year 1983In the year 1984
January 1986November 1986In the year 1987In the year 1988In the year 1989
May 1990December 1990
In the year 1991In the year 1992In the year 1993In the year 1994
June 1995November 1995In the year 1996In the year 1997
October 1998June 1999
November 1999July 2000
December 2000Spring 2001
Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Well Cannot say Poorly
707370637073757680817984818284867987898189858877727173877873736279677585909193959493938786848585878696958790
976554555453542463462547686146456977643343368
1067772155
2120243225232119151616131413141114107
139
109
1621202213182124331423188554425476698672485
37
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 11. Military alignment or non-alignment
November 1995
In the year 1996
In the year 1997
October 1998
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Yes Cannot say No
84
87
87
84
85
87
85
84
82
86
6
3
3
3
3
3
5
4
3
5
10
10
11
12
12
10
10
12
14
9
"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"
"In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or shouldFinland aim to ally itself militarily?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Remainnon-aligned
Cannotsay
58
5463
42536363
615955
5960
546061
566160
69545071416765
17
2410
22231415
171419
1613
211815
161916
7211511211822
25
2227
36242322
222626
2526
252224
282023
24253518381613
38
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 12. Military alignment or non-alignment
Aim toally itself
"In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily?"
In the year 1996In the year 1997
July 1998October 1998
June 1999November 1999
July 2000December 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%
585857545867686967615869675861657079686671687460646769
17121212887
1068
113795
1185
1098
118
11108
11
252931333425252127313127263234242216212520211829272520
Remainnon-aligned
Cannotsay
39
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 13. Nato membership
"In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in Nato?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Yes Cannot say No
20
1625
31141920
212119
1922
181521
241717
17193723236
22
21
2813
27211820
192223
2115
242616
192223
11202012291616
59
5662
42656360
615758
6063
585863
576160
73614365487862
40
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 14. Nato membership
"In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in Nato?"
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2006
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Yes Cannot say No
20
22
25
27
30
21
18
20
25
28
28
26
26
28
21
17
14
15
10
10
10
10
7
10
12
5
10
9
59
62
61
58
60
70
71
70
68
62
60
69
65
63
41
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 15. Confidence in the future of the European Union
"What kind of con�dence do you have in the future of the European Union? In the last two years,has your con�dence been strengthened, weakened or has it remained the same?"
4
3
2
8Autumn 2005
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Strengthened Remainedthe same
Cannotsay Weakened
3
1
2
1
58
58
45
53
34
37
52
39
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Strengthened Remainedthe same
Cannotsay Weakened
4
35
3725
444
25
733
632
136466
11
58
6057
72546453
566260
5458
535560
565962
65376266694847
3
42
3214
521
21
631
333
1702114
34
3336
22383338
343335
4237
343836
353532
32533229254438
42
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 16. A more secure or more insecure future
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
SaferNo di�erenceto the present
Cannotsay Less safe
18
1520
26191217
201416
1414
231515
201813
13102016191927
31
2735
39323028
293232
3231
283132
263337
35273536312020
2
23
2133
331
23
232
312
2401331
49
5642
33485452
475151
5352
475151
514847
50594547475852
"Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next�ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world comparedto the present?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
43
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 17. A more secure or more insecure future
"Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next�ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world comparedto the present?"
SaferNo di�erenceto the present
Cannotsay Less safe
May 1990October 1990
May 1991October 1991
April 1992November 1992
April 1993November 1993
May 1994October 1994
June 1995November 1995
Autumn 1996Autumn 1997
In the year 1998In the year 1999In the year 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
1814131014202017272818242029173022263719262822221523181618151828291825
3125272328363340303031293123402625242736473031264327213122282216222530
21111111112122123322224425577565457
4960596556434642414049464746424251463342253943483944574653525451455238
44
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 18. Factors affecting security
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors?How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Increase of foreign ownershipin Finland's economy
Finland’s possible membership in Nato
Finland’s military non-alignment
The participation of Finnish troops incrisis-management tasks
Finland’s economic cooperationincreases internationally
Finland’s membership in the EU
Finland participates in the commondefence of the EU
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
81
72
62
59
50
46
25
8
12
17
25
29
34
25
19
22
5
6
4
6
7
12
16
8
1
4
9
6
10
17
40
62
Finland's participation in Nordicdefence cooperation
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 19. Factors affecting security (I)
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland’s membership in the EUAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland participates in the common defence of the EU
Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland's participation in Nordic defence cooperation
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
81837974757466
727062566153495269616469555954
626254505447455371586360495652
12131619202127
172024262531323122232322282130
252533353742413422342933353336
5344333
657645554663443
422322222331221
1124224
468
12101114124
1076
131613
911111179
12105566
139
11
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
46
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 20. Factors affecting security (II)
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors?How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland’s military non-alignmentAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks*Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland’s economic cooperation increases internationally
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
595248454539363952404948433837
505146404135161722212325262420
464645384235384141384245424340
293739404046484037453741424447
343640414449534640424645483946
253030343145393433353034383643
655565655674464
734443456574352
1297665786674563
66799
1010166977
111213
109
10141113273132332426243232
171618232215171720212217151515
*) 2004-2012 The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks in war zones
47
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 21. Factors affecting security (III)
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors?How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Increase of foreign ownership in Finland's economy
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Finland’s possible membership in Nato
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
252932353732242835343437313637
8877758958
1411
191721182031312932272323302724
223745423438363735333841
161212111068
1078
105864
867554555635
404236363330373327323335313134
624941465453514956534543
48
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 22. The impact of various factors on Finland's security
"How do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finland's security?"
China
Russia
USA
Nato
OSCE
The UN
The EU
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Positivee�ect
Noe�ect
Cannotsay
Negativee�ect
Both positiveand negativee�ects
65
64
47
24
18
13
12
14
19
21
13
14
11
35
5
8
22
12
8
7
15
5
1
0
26
27
39
16
12
8
10
26
32
30
21
49
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 23. The impact of various factors on Finland's security
"How do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finland's security?"
Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
ChinaAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
RussiaAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
USAAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
NatoAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
OSCEAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
The UNAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010
2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
The EU
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
65605857696059
64616164777072
47443846555046
24242621282323
18162114257
11
131469
164
11
121387
1069
14162115131315
19232722151820
21263325242429
13131926211622
14212633323533
11131520191819
35445554545150
5332221
8542221
22181711101010
12875663
8553433
7554532
1510106875
5757465
1311111
0122232
26252521223228
27221917112223
39375028274034
16111011111414
12131319122020
897
11597
10111116101314
26302428222223
32352833283331
30312440333534
21221722182223
Positivee�ect
Noe�ect
Cannotsay
Negativee�ect
Both positiveand negativee�ects
50
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 24. The conduct of defence policy in Finland
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy been conducted in recent years?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
7
68
624
11
885
55
556
857
108
104206
68
6770
59657768
676671
6373
657472
696868
83537581655087
11
166
221688
111013
118
128
10
101410
41184
22222
12
1013
12161011
111411
1812
161211
111014
3266
1010215
2
13
1113
320
32
201
131
0110170Other parties
Left AllianceGreen League
Social Democratic P.Coalition Party
The FinnsCentre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
51
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 25. The conduct of defence policy in Finland
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy beenconducted in recent years?"
Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
710764457
1010788
14
6869726865656874667573757563
117655657545244
1212141923221911181013141017
21222230111122
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
52
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 26. Export of defence material
Cannot say
Export of defence materialshould be permitted anywhere
Export of defence materialshould be entirely banned
Criteria for granting exportlicences should be tightened
Export of defence material shouldtake place in accordance with the
current practice and regulations
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
49
31
6
5
9
"Which of the following alternatives re�ects best your view on the exports ofdefence material by Finnish companies?"
53
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 27. Export of defence material
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Export of defencematerial should bepermitted anywhere
Export of defence material should take place in accordance with the current practice
Criteria for grantingexport licencesshould be tightened
Export of defencematerial should beentirely banned
5
38
8593
646
49
327
662
21810118
16
49
3859
54444949
525143
5347
484948
474753
62585557461941
9
145
1116106
1278
95
9116
87
14
55755
117
31
3923
25273035
223540
2836
333433
333227
30132628484035
6
74
2827
933
54
645
584
17290
211
"Which of the following alternatives re�ects best your view on the exports of defence material by Finnish companies?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
and regulations
Cannotsay
54
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 28. Military cooperation
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
With the United StatesAutumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
With NatoAutumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
In the European UnionAutumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
With SwedenAutumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
With all Nordic countries
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
53555050484740
5660525552
32352923242116
1416171717109
121415
42394444464651
3834423942
58545861626363
41454341393936
434549
3232222
32322
4443324
11766567
976
2324435
23244
568
11101216
26222727303336
262524
1000011
10110
1111111
9106
109
1211
10106
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden, other Nordic countries,Nato and the European Union. What is your view on cooperation?"
55
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 29. Military cooperation with all Nordic countries
PS
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
53
4956
55475154
475658
4359
514954
614447
69416752623260
42
4639
40494540
444240
5339
414343
355344
27573245355838
3
41
2233
422
21
441
226
2012331
2
13
2212
310
30
441
213
3201062
1
01
0011
100
01
001
010
0000000
"Finland conducts military cooperation with all Nordic countries. What is your view on cooperation?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
56
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 30. Military cooperation with Sweden
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
56
5359
56535160
506160
4461
565258
644849
70456763644171
38
4136
39424234
423535
5036
364238
314643
26513032304928
3
52
2343
423
22
552
236
2012640
2
22
3222
311
41
411
222
2413062
1
01
0011
100
01
001
010
0010010
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden. What is your view on cooperation?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
57
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 31. Military cooperation in the European Union
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
32
2639
32273035
293435
2540
282835
392526
37235026341852
58
6552
61626353
575960
6555
575960
536463
59624867616443
4
62
4335
533
21
761
337
1012554
5
47
3836
833
73
773
474
215140
122
1
01
0011
200
11
101
110
0000000
"Finland conducts military cooperation with the European union.What is your view on cooperation?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
58
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 32. Military cooperation with Nato
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
14
819
178
1316
141115
1216
151414
17129
8132912135
16
41
4042
43404538
374642
4244
323746
403747
57325046352146
11
165
15108
11
109
12
97
1696
91212
3435
23149
26
2824
20312924
282723
2827
293527
233126
18411528304225
9
810
6125
11
1177
87
857
1196
14102
100
193
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Nato. What is your view on cooperation?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
59
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 33. Military cooperation with the United States
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
12
619
2078
14
151011
1110
141512
16118
1117258
1327
43
4540
37405141
404147
4248
343648
414049
53365447342254
9
125
13859
87
10
95
1485
8109
2313
20147
26
2626
23342724
253224
3029
263526
262726
26361835303128
10
119
7108
12
1298
98
127
10
9138
98274
313
"Finland conducts military cooperation with the United States. What is your view on cooperation?"
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
60
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 34. The military situation in Finland’s near environs
"What is your estimate of the military situation in Finland’s near environs during the next decade?"
6
49
71046
846
68
486
864
81025685
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Lessthreatening
More or lessthe same
Cannotsay
More
48
4552
58454847
534445
5144
524750
494651
47535459483765
4
44
3653
534
34
463
426
1033534
41
4735
32404344
354845
4044
393941
394639
44374133405226Other parties
Left AllianceGreen League
Social Democratic P.Coalition Party
The FinnsCentre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
threatening
61
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 35. The military situation in Finland’s near environs
6
5
6
7
9
10
8Autumn 2004
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Lessthreatening
More or lessthe same
Cannotsay
More
4
2
1
2
1
2
2
48
48
46
70
68
70
67
41
44
46
21
22
17
24
"What is your estimate of the military situation in Finland’s near environs duringthe next decade?"
threatening
62
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 36. Defence appropriations
"What is your opinion on funds allocated to the Defence Forces?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
Raisedsigni�cantly
Raisedsomewhat
Remain atpresent level
Cannotsay
Decreasedsomewhat
Decreasedsigni�cantly
9
811
596
13
1584
126
869
10117
10138929
12
31
2637
35302634
323032
3527
323231
303530
35484132261124
40
4634
38295238
374440
3846
344444
403743
53213747453557
7
104
91474
768
86
876
839
09564
120
8
79
111376
59
11
411
11108
897
2295
19187
4
26
3535
534
44
724
453
08113
150Other parties
Left AllianceGreen League
Social Democratic P.Coalition Party
The FinnsCentre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 37. Defence appropriations
"What is your opinion on funds allocated to the Defence Forces?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Should be raised Remain atpresent level
Cannotsay Should be decreased
40474747563233273431273339443138293136444634262635292434313027141517333329263129263236333332324137384142423646564617
40404142365152504550594947455953575652444449595250555850524851525843465047505049574948514849484243384141444842333855
754434333324123122232533333225232224456545335575
10127858437
12
128976
1412191817121412887
11101097
111218121415151517193124382012201813161315121214141312101211998889
16In the year 1964In the year 1969In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1972In the year 1973In the year 1974In the year 1975In the year 1978In the year 1979In the year 1980In the year 1981In the year 1982In the year 1983In the year 1984In the year 1985December 1986
January 1986In the year 1987
April 1988December 1988
In the year 1989In the year 1990
April 1991October 1991
In the year 1992April 1993
October 1993May 1994
October 1994June 1995
November 1995In the year 1996In the year 1997
July 1998October 1998
November 1999December 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010
Spring 2011Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
64
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 38. Factors causing concern among the citizens
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
55
55
54
48
43
38
38
36
35
24
31
26
25
23
12
34
33
33
34
39
41
40
41
41
52
41
45
46
39
44
0
0
1
1
2
2
0
2
1
1
3
0
3
3
4
7
10
10
14
13
16
18
16
19
16
17
23
20
26
28
3
2
2
3
3
3
5
5
3
6
8
6
7
9
12Development of the European Union
State-sponsored fake news reporting directed at Finland
Development in Russia
The employment situationin Finland
Development in the United States
Security situation in theBaltic Sea area
Social inequality in Finland
Situation in the Middle East
Racism
Threats, in other words cyberthreats against information
networks
Politically extremist movements
Proliferation of weaponsof mass destruction
The refugee situation in the world
International terrorism
Climate change (global warming)
65
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 39. Factors causing concern among the citizens (I)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors?To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
The refugee situation in the worldAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
International terrorismAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Climate change (global warming)*
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
553126302521211824373351323722
554335463224273237343951475050
544640
344445423836383639394236414145
333840374238393533424138363536
333745
001011000100000
001010001110010
101
71821202628273025151811221925
10162014203024252317169
141111
101411
3778
1014141612772537
224358976642242
223
*) 2004-2015 Global warming
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
66
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 40. Factors causing concern among the citizens (II)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Threats, in other words cyber threats against information networks**
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Politically extremist movementsAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
483227343326293539252742353436
433735
3821181921131820222324
343637373535333432424037383842
393539
4142424342373639384245
122111101210110
222
23332232222
142527212329292422252618232321
132019
1629282626353031292524
367689885662343
355
36999
12139995
**) 2008-2012 Cyber threats against information networks
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
67
FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY
Figure 41. Factors causing concern among the citizens (III)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
Development in the United States
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
Security situation in the Baltic Sea area
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018Social inequality in Finland
Autumn 2006
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2018
Situation in the Middle East
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
Racism
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100%
38
31
31
36
18
22
15
11
12
13
21
24
35
26
27
24
18
19
31
27
40
38
39
41
38
36
34
35
40
37
45
43
41
41
42
52
46
47
41
36
0
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
3
2
18
22
22
16
34
29
34
36
35
36
27
26
19
24
23
16
26
24
17
26
5
7
8
5
9
11
16
17
10
11
6
6
3
8
6
6
8
8
8
8
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
68
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018
Figure 42. Factors causing concern among the citizens (IV)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018Development of the European Union
Autumn 2018State-sponsored fake news reporting directed at Finland
Autumn 2004
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2006
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018Development in Russia
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Autumn 2018
The employment situation in Finland
0 20 40 60 80 100%
26
28
43
49
49
42
37
31
30
38
20
25
25
27
26
32
10
13
11
10
12
16
20
19
13
20
23
12
11
45
43
41
38
37
41
43
44
41
43
45
46
37
45
43
43
32
36
36
39
36
40
48
38
38
42
39
44
41
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
1
1
1
2
3
4
3
23
25
13
10
11
15
15
21
23
15
27
20
29
19
23
18
38
31
34
32
35
29
24
31
35
29
26
28
35
6
4
3
3
2
2
5
4
5
4
8
7
8
7
6
6
18
18
17
17
14
13
7
11
12
6
9
12
10
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)
Set up by the Government, the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) is a perma-nent Parliamentary Committee, which administratively functions in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to parliamentary members, ABDI’s members represent various expert organisations: the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Education and Culture, Defence Command Finland, Finnish Broadcasting Company, Finnish News Agency (STT), Union of Journalists in Finland, Finnish Media Federation, National Defence University, and Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI).
ABDI investigates, on an annual basis, the opinions and attitudes of Finns towards security policy and the factors influencing them and conducts at least one extensive survey that covers the entire adult population in Finland. The questions cover foreign and security policy and national defence. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since the 1960s. The surveys by ABDI are in the public domain and accessible to all.
The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)
Ministry of DefenceBP 3100131 HELSINKI
www.defmin.fi/abdi