Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web

portalVincent N. Sakwa

KMD

Login page

• http://www.meteo.go.ke/rsmc/index.php• Username: swfdp Password: swfdp1

NWP MODELS-REGIONAL PRODUCTS

• COSMO(7km)• WRF(7km)• LAKE VICTORIA PRODUCTS• ALADIN LA RE-UNION• INDIAN OCEAN WAVES• UK MET OFFICE LAM• MET OFFICE EPS

GLOBAL PRODUCTS

• NOAA EA PRODUCTS • ECMWF PRODUCTS • UK MET PRODUCTS • TIGGE-GIFS East Africa products for

GUIDANCE PRODUCTS

• Short range forecasts (1-2 days)• Medium range forecasts (3-5 days)• Agrometeorology Products (5days)• Satellite products• Evaluation Form

Risk tables

• Indicate areas where severe weather is expected, ‘X’ if it applies for the entire area, otherwise specified. Eg. S coast

• Risk categories: No risk, Low, Medium or High

Heavy Rain Strong Winds

RISK No risk

Low risk Medium risk

High risk

No risk

Low risk Medium risk

High risk

X X

X X

DRC X X

N,E X

X X

S X

X X

RSMC-NAIROBISWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTSRISK TABLES SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)Issue Date: Saturday 19th November 2011In order to provide more information about the geographical location of the severe event the following convention is adopted when filling in the cells: X for the whole country, N for the northern part, S for the southern part, W for the western part and E for the eastern part.Day 1: Saturday 19th November 2011

RSMC-NAIROBISWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTSSHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) Issue Date: 19th November 2011Valid for: 19th to 20th November 2011Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table.Degree of confidence: High Day 2: Sunday 20th November 2011Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table.Degree of confidence: High

Links to International Centers• ECMWF• NCEP• UK MET OFFICE• WMO• DWD• KMA• RSMC-PRETORIA• ICPAC• ICMWF• ACMAD• AGRHYMET

Regional and International Centres

• ECMWF http://www.ecmwf.int• NCEP http://wwwt.ncep.noaa.gov• UKMO http://www.metoffice.gov.uk• WMO http://www.wmo.ch• RSMC-Reunion

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/• ACMAD http://www.acmad.ne

Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)

Products that can be provided include:Site specific “Meteograms”.

Precipitation threshold probability charts. Windspeed threshold probability charts. Spaghetti Diagrams. Tropical cyclone tracks forecasts.

Links to National Met Services

• Kenya• Ethiopia• Rwanda• Tanzania• Uganda• Burundi

Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM

Fields available include:• Accumulated precipitation (6 and

24-hour)• Outgoing longwave radiation• Pressure at mean sea level• Wet bulb potential temperature at

850 mbar• Temperature at 1.5m, 925hPa,

700hPa• Wind at 10m, 850hPa, 700hPa,

200hPa• Relative humidity at 925hPa,

700hPa

Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM

How can you get it?(i) Through a password

protected website www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/africa/lam/The user name is afr_nms, and the password is uk_alam.

(ii) The forecast fields are available through EUMETCAST using satellite receiver stations. This allows the data to be viewed using forecaster workstations.

Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb

Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts

Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm

NCEP NWP Products

GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Deterministic Probabilistic , 30mm/day thresholdDeterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS

Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009

Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009

Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

Surface and Column Parameters

28

Daily QPF

Probability of Pexceedance

Rainfall anomalyLast 7 days

Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days

Real Time Access to Productshttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/

2. Current StatusReal Time Monitoring

7 days 30 days

180 days 90 days

Daily Evolution

Extreme Forecast Index