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Storm Surge Forecasting Trial at RSMC Nadi
FMS acquired SS forecasting technique from JMA
⚫ Training of Trainor; Oct. 2016, Tokyo
(Vatia Tide-gauge)⚫ Group training; Aug. 2017, Nadi
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Schematic image of storm-surge forecasting
timeseries
Storm-surge model ProductsInput
tropical cyclone forecasts
storm surge map
bathymetry◼ based on two-dimensional
shallow water equations
Area of the FMS storm-surge forecasting
RSMC Nadi’s area of responsibility
Sub-regions for calculation
✓ Forecasting of storm-surge started in November
2017 on a trial basis with the support of JMA.
Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
✓ 44 Casualties
✓ 50,000 people in evacuation centers
✓ 350,000 people affected (~40% of Fiji pop.)
✓ FJ$2.0 billion Loss
•Highest winds
10-min sustained: 233 km/h (Gust: 306km/h)
1-minute sustained: 285 km/h
Simulation of storm-surges caused by TC WINSTON
⚫ Motion picture of storm-surge simulation (right)
⚫ Snapshot at 10h/20/Feb/2016 UTC (left)
Forecast of storm-surges caused by TC GITA
⚫ Forecast surge at Tongatapu for 12 Feb 2018 (right)
⚫ Actual sea-level data from the tide-gage at Nuku'alofa (left)
Forecast of storm-surges caused by TC KENI
⚫ Motion picture of storm-surge forecasts at 1800UTC 09/APR/2018 (right)
⚫ Actual data from the tide-gage at Vatia (left)
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Storm-surge at Vatia
storm surge
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Plan for the future
✓ To continue the trial forecasting for 2018-9 TC season to more closely examine its accuracy and to consolidate the FMS’s operational capacity.
✓ To start the storm-surge forecasting operationally as from 2019-20 TC season for the RSMC Nadi’s responsible area and to enhance the TC warning service for Fiji.
✓ To upgrade the forecasting in terms of time/space resolutions and by addition of time-series forecasting at selected points in the region.
Thank You
