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Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil
the Bonn Agreement Area
Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden
Overview
• Background • Introduction to the different accident types• Frequency of the accident types • Spills from the different accident types• Future scenario• Regional differences• Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest• Summary and Conclusions
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
BackgroundTask H Oil spills
Overall objective:• Apply the accident model to describe the:
– Accident type– Location– Spill size– Spill substance
Basis:• Traffic model• Cargo model• Risk Reducing measures• Accident statistics
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
BackgroundAccidents covered
- Ship-ship collision modelNode collisionsRoute collisions
- Groundings- STS/bunkering operations/loading buoy/FPSO- Offshore platforms
Operational spillsSpills from collisions
- Wind parks
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident typesShip-Ship collisions
Route collisions
The collision frequencies depend on:• the length of the route segment• the traffic intensity in each direction• the length, breadth and speed of the ships• the deviation of the ships from the route axis• the causation probability Pc
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
V2, L2, B2
m, s
m, s
V1, L1, B1
Route length, L
m, sV2, L2, B2
m, s
V1, L1, B1
Route length, L
Head-on
Overtaking
Accident typesShip-Ship collisions
Node collisions
The collision frequencies depend on:• the traffic intensity in each direction• the length, breadth and speed of the ships• the crossing angle• the causation probability Pc
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident frequency, 2011All types of accidents
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsChannel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident frequencyDover Strait
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident frequencyAll types of accidentsGerman Bight
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011 (t/year)All types of accidentsAll sizes of spills, the average spill is dominated by extremely large spills(long term average)
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsChannel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsDover Strait
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsGerman Bight
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011All types of accidentsNorth Sea
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011Small spills <300t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills, 2011Medium spills 300t-5000t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidentall spills, 2011Large spills > 5000t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident frequency - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020
Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidental spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020
Changes:WindparksTSSTraffic- routes- vessel size- voyages
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accidentall spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020
Small spills <300t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020
Medium spills 300t-5000t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Accident spills - 2020All types of accidentsFuture scenario 2020
Large spills >5000t
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
• TSS reduces risks significantly
2020
2020
2020
Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
• VTS has significant effect on ships with no pilots
2020
2020
2020
Regional resultsProject area and sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Regional results, 2011Project area and sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Regional results, 2020Project area and sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Regional resultsDivided into sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Regional results, 2011Divided into sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Regional results, 2020Divided into sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil
Methodology
Summary and conclusion 1• Areas with high intensity traffic in narrow lanes gives
large contributions when no TSS is applied• Largest contributions to reduction of route collisions
from TSS• Largest contributor to node collisions at Dover Straight• Not insignificant contributions from the operational
spills from platforms• Substantial regional differences in accidents and spills
Methodology
Summary and conclusion 2• Substantial risk for spills from platforms (Ship-platform
collisions, platform accidents, blow-out)• Little risk for spills from wind farms (ship-Wind turbine
collision)• Development of risk on sub-regional level:• SB4: More risk for collision, wind farms• SB5: More risk for collision• Impact of spills have not been evaluated (Be-Aware II)
Questions?
Thank you
beaware.bonnagreement.org
